Download Economics for Today 2005

Inflation
• Key Concepts
• Summary
©2005 South-Western College Publishing
1
What will I study
in this chapter?
You will study how the
government actually
measures changes in the
price level, computes the
rate of inflation, and the
consequences and root
causes of inflation.
2
What is inflation?
An increase in the
general (average) price
level of goods and
services in the economy
3
What is deflation?
A decrease in the general
(average) price level of
goods and services in
the economy
4
What is the most
widely reported
measure of inflation?
The Consumer Price Index
5
What is the
Consumer Price Index?
The CPI is an index that
measures changes in the
average prices of consumer
goods and services
6
Who reports the CPI?
The Bureau of Labor
Statistics (BLS) of the
Department of Labor
7
How is the CPI
calculated?
Price collectors contact retail
stores, homeowners, and
tenants in selected cities in
the U.S. monthly
8
Which goods and
services are included
in the CPI?
The BLS records average
prices for a “market
basket” of different items
purchased by the typical
urban family
9
Composition of the CPI
Food
13.2%
Housing
32.7%
Apparel
4.3%
Transportation
19.1%
Medical Care
5.8%
Entertainment
5.1%
Insurance and pensions
5.3%
All other goods
4.8%
10
Does the makeup of
the CPI change?
As people’s tastes and
preferences change,
some of the goods and
services that go into the
basket change
11
How is the CPI
computed?
Current year prices are
compared to prices of a
similar basket of goods and
services in a base year
12
What is a base year?
A year chosen as a
reference point for
comparison with some
earlier or later year
13
Why is the CPI always
100 in the base year?
The numerator and the
denominator of the
CPI formula are the
same in the base year
14
*CYP = cost of the market basket of
products at current-year prices
*BYP = cost of the market basket of
products at base-year prices
CPI =
CYP X 100
BYP
15
How is the
inflation rate computed?
The annual inflation rate is
computed as the
percentage change in
the official CPI from one
year to the next
16
*ARI = Annual rate of inflation
*CPIY = Consumer price index
in given year
*CPIPY = Consumer price
index in previous year
CPI
CPIPY
X 100
ARI =
CPIPY
17
20
16
12
8
The U.S. Inflation Rate 1929 - 2002
4
0
-4
-8
-12
1930 40
50
60
70
80
90
00
18
What is disinflation?
A reduction in the
rate of inflation
19
What are some
criticisms of the CPI?
• It can overstate or
understate the impact of
inflation for certain groups
• Does not measure quality
• Substitutes are ignored
20
What does inflation do
to people’s income?
A general rise in prices will
shrink people’s income
21
What is
nominal income?
The actual number of
dollars received over
a period of time
22
What is real income?
The actual number of
dollars received (nominal
income) adjusted for
changes in the CPI
23
*RI = Real income
*NI = Nominal income
*CPI = CPI as a decimal or CPI ÷ 100
NI
RI = CPI
24
%  in real
income
=
%  in
nominal
income
_
%  in
CPI
25
What is wealth?
The value of the stock
of assets owned at
some point in time
26
How is wealth
affected by inflation?
Inflation can benefit
holders of wealth
because the value of
their assets tends to
increase as prices rise
27
What will cause your
real income to decline?
The rate of inflation
is greater than your
rate of income
28
How does inflation
affect borrowers
and savers?
They can win or lose
depending on the
rate of inflation and
interest
29
What is the
interest rate?
Interest per year as a
percentage of the
amount loaned or lent
30
What is the
nominal interest rate?
The actual rate of
interest earned over a
period of time
31
What is the
real interest rate?
The nominal rate of interest
minus the inflation rate
32
What are the two basic
types of inflation?
Demand-pull
Cost-push
33
What is
demand-pull inflation?
A rise in the general
price level resulting
from an excess of total
spending (demand)
34
When does demandpull inflation occur?
When the economy is
operating at or near
full employment
35
What is
cost-push inflation?
A rise in the general
price level resulting
from an increase in
the cost of production
36
What can cause costpush inflation?
Cost increases for labor, raw
materials, construction,
equipment, borrowing etc.
37
Do people’s
expectations
affect inflation?
Yes, expectations can
influence both demandpull and cost-push
inflation
38
What is hyperinflation?
An extremely rapid rise in
the general price level
39
What is a
wage-price spiral?
A situation that occurs when
increases in nominal wage
rates are passed on in
higher prices, which, in turn,
result in even higher
nominal wages and prices
40
How does the U.S.
inflation rate
compare with other
countries?
It is lower than
some and higher
than others
41
Key Concepts
42
• What is inflation?
• What is the Consumer Price Index?
• Which goods and services are included in
the CPI?
• How is the CPI computed?
• What is a base year?
• How is the inflation rate computed?
• What is disinflation?
43
•
•
•
•
•
•
What does inflation do to people’s income?
What is nominal income?
What is real income?
What is wealth?
How is wealth affected by inflation?
How does inflation affect borrowers and
savers?
• What are the two basic types of inflation?
44
•
•
•
•
•
What is demand-pull inflation?
What is cost-push inflation?
Do people’s expectations affect inflation?
What is hyperinflation?
How does the U.S. inflation rate compare
with other countries?
45
Summary
46
Inflation is an increase in the
general (average) price level of
goods and services in the
economy.
47
The consumer price index (CPI) is
the most widely known price-level
index. It measures the cost of
purchasing a market basket of
goods and services by a typical
household during a time period
relative to the cost of the same
bundle during a base year.
48
The annual rate of inflation is
computed using the following
formula:
49
*ARI = Annual rate of inflation
*CPIY = Consumer price index
in given year
*CPIPY = Consumer price
index in previous year
CPI
CPIPY
X 100
ARI =
CPIPY
50
Deflation is a decrease in the
general level of prices. During
the early years of the Great
Depression, there was deflation.
51
Disinflation is a reduction in the
inflation rate. Between 1980 and
1986, there was disinflation. This
does not mean that prices were
falling, but only that the inflation
rate fell.
52
The inflation rate is criticized
because (1) it is not
representative, (2) it incorrectly
adjusts for quality changes, and
(3) it ignores the relationship
between price changes and the
importance of items in the
market basket.
53
Nominal income is income
measured in actual money
amounts. Measuring your
purchasing power requires
converting nominal income into
real income, which is nominal
income adjusted for inflation.
54
The real interest rate is the
nominal interest rate adjusted for
inflation. If real interest rates are
negative, lenders incur losses.
55
%  in real
income
=
%  in
nominal
income
_
%  in
CPI
56
Demand-pull inflation is
caused by by pressure on
prices originating from the
buyers side of the market.
57
Cost-push inflation is caused
by pressure on prices
originating from the seller's
side of the market.
58
Hyperinflation can seriously
disrupt an economy by causing
inflation psychosis, credit
market collapses, a wage-price
spiral, and speculation.
59
END
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