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LOS PAÍSES ANDINOS
LOS PAÍSES ANDINOS
Ecuador at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
Ecuador is currently enjoying a period of relative political stabiilty. After five
years in office, the president, Rafael Correa, remains far more popular than
his recent predecessors. A survey carried out in September by polling firm
Opinión Pública gave Mr Correa a clear lead on voting intentions, with 44%
support. The next-closest candidate was former banker Guillermo Lasso of
Creando Oportunidades (CREO), on just 9%. In view of this, the Economist
Intelligence Unit feels that Mr Correa is best placed to win another term.
Despite some spending contraints as a result of lower oil prices, we expect
the Correa administration to maintain its expansive policy stance ahead of
the 2013 elections (and thereafter), keeping the public finances in deficit. The
government will continue to encourage private investment, and it is hoped
that development of the mining sector will increase levels of foreign direct
investment. However, persistent intervention by the government will act as a
deterrent, as will the unpredictable policy environment. We expect the
current account to remain in deficit during the forecast period.
Fuente: EIU
September 4th 2012
Peru at a glance: 2012-16
OVERVIEW
Having gained the support of the urban middle classes, the president, Ollanta Humala, will
implement pragmatic and centrist policies. Opposition from the left, in the legislature and at
the local level, will intensify. The Economist Intelligence Unit expects macroeconomic policy
management to remain broadly prudent under the Humala government, in the context of a
relatively weak global outlook and the persistent risk of a financial crisis originating in the
euro zone. After growing by 6.9% in 2011, the economy will slow to 5.6% in 2012, supported
by still-strong private investment. Assuming that global conditions improve, GDP growth will
pick up to an annual average of 5.8% in 2013-16. A fiscal surplus of 1.9% of GDP in 2011 will
shrink to an annual average of 0.9% in 2012-16 (in line with the fiscal balance rule), owing to
spending on public works and social programmes, and a small stimulus package in 2012. We
expect the monetary authority to hold its policy rate in 2012, amid weakening global
conditions. If global conditions worsen significantly, the Banco Central de Reserva del Perú
(BCRP, the Central Bank) will have room to loosen policy. Barring a sharp rise in risk aversion
stemming from an external shock (such as a financial crisis originating in the euro zone), the
currency's appreciation will continue in 2012-13, leading the nuevo sol to reach Ns2.6:US$1
by end-2013. The current-account deficit will widen, to 3.1% of GDP in 2016, driven by a
widening income deficit and a narrower trade surplus.
Fuente: EIU
KEY:
Perú
http://serviciodeestudios.bbva.com/KETD/fbin/mult/sp1t14_e_presentacion_tc
m346-425988.pdf?ts=432014
http://semanaeconomica.com/el-nuevo-sol/2013/11/08/mi-entrevista-enperu21-sobre-las-perspectivas-economicas-para-2014/
Callao
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ixy_lqbVD7g&feature=related
TURISMO: Puerto Maldonado (Provincia Madre de Dios)
Partes 1-4:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qZM4Czyo3ws
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=HjOsbTeCHAs&feature=endscreen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=RG53TBm-t58&feature=endscreen
http://www.youtube.com/watch?NR=1&v=HnHNU28nmuY&feature=endscreen
October 1st 2012
Bolivia at a glance: 2013-17
OVERVIEW
The inability of the left-wing president, Evo Morales, to satisfy the rising demands
of diverse social groups will fuel public discontent, but political instability will be
contained by continued high social spending. Stringent rules on foreign ownership
and profit repatriation, widespread corruption and a weak judicial system will
impair the business environment and limit foreign and domestic private-sector
participation. Assuming that there will be no prolonged or sharp fall in gas and oil
prices, Bolivia's non-financial public sector (NFPS) will remain in surplus
throughout the forecast period, even as public expenditure remains high. After an
estimated expansion of 5% in 2012, GDP growth will moderate, but at an average
of 4.5% in 2013-17 it will remain strong, supported by continued growth in
domestic demand and rising natural gas production. After easing to an estimated
average of 4.7% in 2012, inflation will rise in 2013-14, as high public spending puts
upward pressure on prices. However, continued fuel subsidies will contain price
expectations in the medium term. The Banco Central de Bolivia (BCB, the Central
Bank) has kept the currency fixed in 2012, but it will resume its policy of
appreciation in the medium term, bringing the boliviano to Bs6.58:US$1 by end2017.
Fuente: EIU
BOLIVIA
Political outlook
Despite slow progress on his reform agenda, Mr Morales is likely to win a
new five-year term in December 2014, aided by an expanding economy
and the lack of a strong challenger.
Economic policy outlook
The state's lack of experience in industrial management and a weak
institutional framework will lead to inefficiencies and delays in 2013-17.
This will be aggravated by Mr Morales's heterodox policies and continued
threat of strikes and protests that will distort public investment.
Fuente: EIU
Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe
United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean
http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/2/53392/EEE2014-Ecuador.pdf
http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/2/53392/EEE2014-Peru.pdf
http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/2/53392/EEE2014-Bolivia.pdf
http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/2/53392/PresentacionEEE2014.pdf
http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/1/53391/PresentationEEI2014.pdf
http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/1/53391/EEI2014_PartI_ChapterI.pdf
http://www.cepal.org/publicaciones/xml/2/53392/EEE2014_ParteICapI.pdf