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Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
BRIC NATIONS
BRAZIL, RUSSIA, CHINA AND INDIA FORM THE SO-CALLED
BRIC GROUP OF EMERGING POWERS.
THE TERM BRIC WAS COINED BY U.S. INVESTMENT BANK,
GOLDMAN SACHS, IN 2001.
BRIC HAS GAINED CLOUT ON THE GLOBAL STAGE IN THE
PAST DECADE AS THEIR ECONOMIES GREW FASTER
THAN THOSE OF THE DEVELOPED COUNTRIES.
IN 2008, BRIC ACCOUNTED FOR 22% OF WORLD
ECONOMY, UP FROM 16% A DECADE EARLIER.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
GDP OF BRIC COUNTRIES
GDP(PPP, IN TRILLIONS)
9.0
7.9
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.3
3.0
2.0
1.1
1.0
2.5
2.3
2.0
1.3
0.923
0.0
BRAZIL
RUSSIA
1998
INDIA
2008
CHINA
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
BRAZIL
•
SIZE
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
8.5 M SQ. KMS
50
•
46.7
45
POPULATION 190 MILLION
40
35
30.3
•
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
2001
46.7%
2008
30.3%
CHANGE
16.4%
30
25
2001
2008
20
15
10
5
0
AGRICULTURAL AND MINING POWERHOUSE.
EXPECTED TO BECOME MAJOR WORLD PLAYER IN WORLD
ENERGY MARKET, HAVING FOUND HUGE DEEP-SEA OIL RESERVES.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
RUSSIA
•
SIZE
•
POPULATION 143 MILLION
17M SQ. KMS
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
30
27.5
25
•
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
2001
27.5%
2008
13.0%
CHANGE
14.5%
20
15
2001
13
2008
10
5
0
WORLD’S SECOND LARGEST OIL EXPORTER, BUT FALL IN OIL
PRICES COULD TRIGGER WORST RECESSION IN AT LEAST A
DECADE, CONTRACTING GDP BY AN EXPECTED 6% IN 2009.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
INDIA
•
SIZE
3.3M SQ. KMS
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
30
•
POPULATION 1100 MILLION
27.5
25
21.8
•
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
2001
27.5%
2008
21.8.0%
CHANGE
5.7%
20
15
2001
2008
10
5
0
VAST DOMESTIC MARKET PUTS IT ON THE TRACK FOR GROWTH
THIS YEAR. FACES POTENTIAL TROUBLE FROM DOMESTIC MILITANT
GROUPS AND A LONG RUNNING BORDER DISPUTE WITH PAKISTAN.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
CHINA
•
SIZE
9.6M SQ. KMS
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
•
18
POPULATION 1300 MILLION
16
16
14
•
POVERTY (% OF POPULATION)
2001
16%
2008
4%
CHANGE
12%
12
10
2001
8
2008
6
4
4
2
0
A GLOBAL MANUFACTURING HUB, HELD $727 BILLION IN U.S.
TREASURIES AT YEAR-END 2008. ESTIMATED TWO-THIRDS OF
ITS ROUGHLY $2 TRILLION IN FOREIGN RESERVES PARKED IN
DOLLAR ASSETS.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
Brazil
Contrary to common
conceptions that
emerging markets
have fairly small,
illiquid and volatile
financial markets,
Brazil actually has a
larger market than
Australia.
Russia
On a purchasing
power parity basis,
Russia’s GDP is
larger than the
UK’s; China’s is
larger than Japan’s
and India’s is larger
than Germany’s.
India
With 4% growth, India
is. performing well not
just in textiles and cheap
electronics but in
shipbuilding, chemicals,
steel and
communications as well
China
The Chinese
automobile market
has already
surpassed the US
market, whereas
only 3 years ago, it
was at 50%.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
INDIA –
WORLD’S
FIRST SOFT
SUPERPOWER
U.S. SECRETARY OF STATE, HILLARY CLINTON,
MADE THE FOLLOWING COMMENTS:
• “ I CONSIDER INDIA NOT JUST A REGIONAL POWER
BUT A GLOBAL POWER. ”
• “ INDIA IS POISED FOR ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
GLOBAL PEACE. IT IS POISED TO BECOME A MORE
POWERFUL NATION. ”
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
“W’ SHAPED RECESSION
THE GREAT RECESSION
IS MOVING MORE
TOWARDS A “W” AND NOT
A “V” OR “U” SHAPE.
THIS IS BASED ON THE FACT
THAT THE GOVERNMENTS WHO
HAVE PUMPED SO MUCH MONEY
INTO THEIR FINANCIAL SYSTEMS
CANNOT LAST LONG ENOUGH
TILL THE SIGNS OF ECONOMIC
RECOVERY AND THEIR TIMING
TO ADJUST THESE FISCAL
PACKAGES WITH THE ECONOMIC
RISE IS A TRICKY QUESTION FOR
THEM AS THE GLOBALISATION OF
MONEY AND ITS IMPACT AFFECTS
US ALL WORLDWIDE.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
Gossip
Slide 1 of 2
In ancient Greece (469 - 399 BC), Socrates
was widely lauded for his wisdom.
One day the great philosopher came upon an
acquaintance who ran up to him excitedly and
said, "Socrates, do you know what I just heard
about one of your students?"
Wait a moment," Socrates replied. "Before
you tell me I'd like you to pass a little test. It's
called the Triple Filter Test."
"Triple filter?“
"That's right," Socrates continued. "Before you talk to me about my student
let's take a moment to filter what you're going to say. The first filter is Truth.
Have you made absolutely sure that what you are about to tell me is true?“
"No," the man said, "actually I just heard about it and..."
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
Gossip
Slide 2 of 2
"All right," said Socrates. "So you don't really know if it's true or not. Now let's
try the second filter, the filter of Goodness. Is what you are about to tell me
about my student something good?"
"No, on the contrary..."
"So," Socrates continued, "you want to tell me something bad about him, even
though you're not certain it's true?"
The man shrugged, a little embarrassed.
Socrates continued. "You may still pass the test though, because there is a
third filter - the filter of Usefulness. Is what you want to tell me about my student
going to be useful to me?"
"No, not really..."
"Well," concluded Socrates, "if what you want to tell me is neither True nor
Good nor even Useful, why tell it to me at all?" ….. This is the reason Socrates
was a great philosopher and held in such high esteem.
Prof. Hersh Chadha
OPM (Harvard) ARPS
Q & A Session
[email protected]
ww.hershchadha.com