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Government's role in investments in power plants in Iceland Sigurður Jóhannesson Cost benefit analysis of public investments • You don’t have to calculate for full wage costs in public investments during economic recessions. • The discount rate used in the evaluation of those investments is lower than the one private companies use. Three kind of government support • Investments in power plants backed by taxpayer guarantees. • Aluminium smelters excempted from various taxes. • Damage to the environment not accounted for. Kárahnjúkavirkjun • The original idea was that it would be privately financed- too risky for the taxpayers. • Private investors were not interested. • So in the end it was financed by government, and backed by taxpayers’ guarantees. Kárahnjúkavirkjun-comes out in a plus if energy prices (aluminium prices) are high enough Kárahnjúkavirkjun-comes out in a plus if energy prices (aluminium prices) are high enough Landsvirkjun’s revised forecast in 2007 Aluminium price forecast of CRU and other specialists in 2002 The stock price index was influenced by aluminium investments Stock price index Investment in el. & aluminium, % of GDP 10000 14% 12% 8000 10% 6000 8% 4000 6% 4% 2000 2% 0 0% 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009