Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download International Conference of the Czech EU Presidency
Transcript
International Conference of the Czech EU Presidency « Trends in tourism employment and labour market » WILL TOURISM REMAIN A DRIVER OF EMPLOYMENT IN DEVELOPED COUNTRIES? Prof. Peter Keller Director, Institute for Tourism, Business and Economic Faculty (HEC), University of Lausanne (Switzerland) Prag (Czech Republic), 10 June 2009 Tourism is an experience economy whose part on total employment is higher than its part at the GDP 21th century 20th century 19th century 18th century 1st sector 2nd sector 3rd sector 4th sector Experience economy Service economy Industrial revolution Prevailing primary production The employment of the hotel and catering business has developed similar to the employment of the industry 120 110 100 Services (3rd Sector) TOTAL Industry & Services 90 Accommodation & Catering Industry (2nd Sector) 80 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 70 Source: Swiss Federal Office of Statistics, 2009 The employment potential differs between tourism related industries Tourism relevant full time equivalent of employment in % Source: TSA Switzerland 2008 The below average productivity of the incoming sector reduces its competitiveness on the markets Incoming sector SME’s of destinations Personalisation Quality competition Outgoing sector International travel industry Standardisation Price competition Cost disease Low margins Shrinking productivity and loss of competitiveness Increasing productivity by cutting labour costs More than proportional reaction to economy-wide fluctuations and crises makes tourism employment volatile 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 15 20 10 20 05 20 00 20 95 19 90 19 85 19 80 19 75 19 70 19 -2 -4 Worldwide international tourist arrivals annual percentage change (last observation 2008) (UNWTO) Gross Domestic Product (GDP), purchasing power parity (PPP) weighted, annual percentage change (IMF WEO April 2009) GDP projection IMF Foreign employees compensate the lack of personal in the more or less regulated hotel and restaurant labour market Closed labour market Real salary (w) Open labour market Real salary (w) D Regulated labour market for foreigners Real salary (w) D D 0(c) 0(f) w(f) 0(o) w(c) w(o) L(f) Employment (L) L(max) L(o) Employment (L) L(max) L(c) Employment(L) The increase of labour productivity leads to more attractive and better remunerated jobs Efficiency Prices with which inputs of human capital and natural resources are used for developing services these services can command in a open economy by their uniqueness and their quality (physical aspect) (monetary aspect) Service vs. self-service economy The increase of labour productivity does not only depend on education level Long term impact Determinants of labour economy Higher Education Vocational Training Research & Development Learning at the destination Learning on the job Short term impact Investment Structures Markets Summing up: Balance of factors which stimulate or reduce tourism employment in developed countries Factors that stimulate employment in tourism + Rise of the experience economy + Tourism’s growth potential Factors that reduce employment in tourism - Dependence on economy-wide fluctuations and crises - Productivity gap and trend to self-service economy Positive but moderate growth of employment
