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Executive Training on
Assessment, costing, and beyond
Bangkok, 15 – 19 Oct 2012
Costing scenarios with
The Rapid Assessment Protocol
(RAP)
Background
• ILO/FACTS Financial, Actuarial, and Statistical Branch
- actuarial valuations of social security schemes
- in-house actuarial expertise and model development
• ILO Social Budget Model (1990’s)
- Comprehensive modeling of social expenditure
- Comprises separate modules for projecting population, labour force, economy,
Government revenues/expenditure, and Social Protection schemes
- Tedious to complete, requiring experienced user
- Comprehensive data required
• The Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
- Built on the concept of the Social Budget Model
- Compact and flexible format (1 Excel file)
- Allows for ‘rapid’ costing of SPF benefit scenarios
The ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
RAP Model Structure
The ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
The labour market modules
The ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
The Economic module
The ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
RAP Excel sheets
AR
Pop
BS 1
EAP
BS 2
GGO
(SQ)
ECO
BS 3
SUM
BS 4
BS 5
MODEL
FRAMEWORK
BENEFIT
SHEETS
SUMMARY
SHEET
The ILO Rapid Assessment Protocol (RAP)
Data requirements
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Population projection by age, sex
Labour force by age, sex (base year)
Labour force by economic sector
National average wage (base year)
National poverty line
Consumer price inflation rate (base year)
Real GDP by economic sector (base year)
GDP deflator by economic sector (base year)
Government revenues and expenditure
Other (depending on scenarios):
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Poverty headcount rates
Age-specific fertility rates
Per capita cost of in-kind benefits, etc.
Cambodia – costing of policy options
Draft policy options selected (from National Social Protection Strategy)
Source: ILO: Cambodia - Financial Assessment of the National Social Protection Strategy (forthcoming)
Cambodia – costing of policy options
Cost projections – Cash transfers for the poor
Source: ILO: Cambodia - Financial Assessment of the National Social
Protection Strategy, draft (forthcoming)
Cambodia – costing of policy options
Cost projections – Targeted benefits (in % of GDP)
Source: ILO: Cambodia - Financial Assessment of the National Social
Protection Strategy, draft (forthcoming)
Cambodia – costing of policy options
Cost projections – Universal benefits (in % of GDP)
Source: ILO: Cambodia - Financial Assessment of the National Social
Protection Strategy, draft (forthcoming)
Cambodia – Costing of policy options
• Results indicative and preliminary
- Exercise meant to illustrate array of policy options
- Aims to facilitate policy dialogue
- Scenarios can be refined later as required
• Results of costing show affordability increasing over time
- Relative cost of all policy options decreasing
• Main assumptions underpinning projections:
- High GDP growth rate (assumption)
- Rapid decline in poverty headcount rates (assumption)