Download Dr Narongchai Akrasanee, Chair of Seranee Holdings, Thailand

AANZFTA Business Seminar
“Partners in Growth: Services Trade with Southeast Asia”
3 June 2011, Amora Hotel, Wellington
AANZFTA and The Prospects
for Services Trade
Narongchai Akrasanee, Ph.D.
MFC Asset Management
Fiscal Policy Research Institute
AANZFTA Business Event
“Partners in Growth : Services Trade with Southeast Asia”
Wellington, New Zealand
3 June 2011
Outline
1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives
2. Trade and Investment between ASEAN and
Australia – New Zealand
3. Future of ASEAN Economy and Prospects
for AANZFTA
3
1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives
AANZFTA is one agreement among many ASEAN’s FTAs/RTAs
AEC in
2015
2008
ASEAN Charter in effect
2003
APEC
2020
2009, Toward AEC
AANZFTA
effective Jan 10
ATICA, AFAS & ACIA
2007
CEBU Concord (ASEAN
Charter) ASEAN
Community by 2015
Bali Concord
Revive ASEAN 2020
1997-98 - Asian Crisis
2001
- 9/11
2002
- FTAs’ Proliferation in ASEAN
1997
ASEAN Vision 2020
1993, AFTA
ASEAN-5
1967
1993 --- APEC
EAC
?
AIFTA
signed Aug 09
AJCEP
effective Jun 09
1998, AIA
1996, AFAS
1977, PTA
ASEAN -10
1999
1995 --- ASEM
AKFTA
effective Jan 10
EAS
2005
4
ACFTA
effective Oct 03
CMI – May 00
ABMI – Aug 03
ASEAN +3 /ASEAN + 6
1999
1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives (Cont.)
 Factors and major events affecting ASEAN’s trade
policies

Regime changes (political and/or economic)
• 1966 Suharto, President of Indonesia
1967 ASEAN, with market economy
• 1975 End of Vietnam War
1976 → , ASEAN economic cooperation
• 1979/80 Second Oil Crisis
ASEAN export-oriented policies
5
1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives (Cont.)
• 1989 End of Cold War
1990
, GMS – From Battle Field to Market Place
, Expanding to ASEAN 10
1990, China’s strong move to market economy
1991, India started market economy
• 1991/92 Concluding GATT’s Uruguay Round
1993, AFTA
• 1998 WTO’s trade liberalization process stalling
(Seattle Riot, 1999)
• 2001 Doha Round with difficult agenda
Moore as DG)
Proliferation of FTAs, RTAs
6
(Mike
1. AANZFTA from ASEAN Perspectives (Cont.)
 Basics about ASEAN’s trade policies

Manufacturing
• Began with import substitution, then changed towards exportoriented particularly from 1980s

Agriculture
• Protection, with gradual liberalization a la WTO and AFTA

Services
• Protection in general, with exception in some services often on
an ad hoc basis
• AEC 2015 will allow for gradual liberalization in services trade
AANZFTA will open opportunities for first trade in
manufactured goods, then agriculture, and later in services
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2. Trade and Investment between
ASEAN and Australia – New Zealand
 ASEAN’s merchandise trade with AUS - NZ
S hare of AS E AN E xports to (% )
S hare of AS E AN Imports from (% )
4 .5
4 .0
3 .5
3 .0
2 .5
2 .0
1 .5
1 .0
0 .5
0 .0
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Australia
2000
2001
2002
2003
Australia
New Zealand
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
New Zealand
ASEAN Total Trade with (Mn USD)
Australia
New Zealand
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
18,436
18,058
18,646
20,986
27,632
34,311
41,356
46,427
51,590
43,850
2,224
2,399
2,356
2,760
3,588
4,226
5,082
6,091
7,420
5,376
Sources: ADB and ASEAN Secretariat
8
2. Trade and Investment between
ASEAN and AUS-NZ (Cont.)
 AUS-NZ and ASEAN investment
Foreign direct investment net inflow to ASEAN
Value (USD Mil)
2007
Australia
20072009
2009
2007
2008
2009
20072009
1,491
920
701
3,112
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.9
101
(165)
240
175
0.1
(0.3)
0.6
0.1
74,395
49,500
39,623
163,518
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
New Zealand
Total FDI inflow
to ASEAN
2008
Share to total net inflow (%)
Sources: ASEAN Secretariat
9
2. Trade and Investment between
ASEAN and AUS-NZ (Cont.)
 Tourist arrivals in ASEAN from AUS-NZ
Country of
origin
Australia
New Zealand
Total tourist
arrivals in
ASEAN
Number of tourist arrivals (Thousand)
Share to total (%)
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009p
2,034
2,063
2,435
2,905
2,824
4.0
3.6
3.9
4.4
4.3
245
354
301
320
264
0.5
0.6
0.5
0.5
0.4
51,288
56,914
62,285
65,605
65,438
100
100
100
100
100
Sources: ASEAN Secretariat
10
3. Future of ASEAN Economy and
Prospects for AANZFTA
 ASEAN and the World
Population 2009 GDP 2010
Total Merchandise
(Thousand)
(Bil of USD) Trade 2010 (Bil of USD)
406.2
13.0
12.5
Cambodia
14,957.8
11.6
12.5
Indonesia
231,369.5
706.7
289.9
5,922.1
6.3
3.3
Malaysia
28,306.0
238.0
363.5
Myanmar
59,534.3
43.0
13.2
Philippines
92,226.6
188.7
109.7
Singapore
4,987.6
222.7
662.7
Thailand
66,903.0
318.9
377.7
Vietnam
87,228.4
103.6
157.0
591,841.0
1,852.5
2,002.1
2.9%
6.5%
Brunei
Lao
ASEAN
Share to world (%)
8.7%
11
3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.)
 Major trading partners of ASEAN

The role of ASEAN trading partners e.g. AUS, NZ, Korea,
India, and China are on the rise.
30
Share to Total ASEAN Trade (%)
ASEAN
25
Australia
20
New Zealand
Korea
15
India
Japan
10
China
5
USA
EU-25
0
2000
Source: ASEAN Secretariat
2006
2007
2008
12
2009
3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.)
 ASEAN Economic trend
9.0
40.0
8.6
8.0
7.0
6.0
32.7
30.5
7.8
6.8
6.1
30.0
22.3
6.7
5.5
20.0
5.7
5.1
5.0
4.0
3.9
4.2
17.1
13.6
12.212.8
14.6
15.4
12.9
13.915.4
2011
2012
10.0
4.2
4.0
0.0
3.0
2.5
2.0
-10.0
1.2
1.0
-20.0
-17.2
-21.4
0.0
2006
2007
2008
GDP Growth
2009
2010
2011
-30.0
2012
2006
2007
2008
Growth rate of merchandise exports
Inflation
Source: Asian Development Outlook 2011, ADB
13
2009
2010
Growth rate of merchandise imports
3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.)
Asia
North
America
Europe
North
America
Africa
South
America
Australia
From Northern Atlantic Centric
14
South
America
Asia/Pacific Centric
3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.)
Moving towards quality growth

Eco-friendly industrial development

Agriculture for quality foods and fuels


Services for better quality of life and
productivity improvement
Energy for security and friendly environment
15
3. Future of ASEAN Economy (Cont.)
Demand from Australia-New Zealand for




Energy raw materials, machinery and
equipments
Products in the supply chain for automotives,
machinery, electronics and electricals
R&D, know how, in agriculture and foods
Professional services in industrial R&D, health
and wellness care, legal and accounting,
education and training, design and product
development, etc.
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AANZFTA Business Seminar
“Partners in Growth: Services Trade with Southeast Asia”
3 June 2011, Amora Hotel, Wellington