Download Proactive Decision Support for Severe Weather - OK-First

Basic Meteorology for Emergency Managers:
Proactive Decision-Support
for Severe Weather Events
1. Training and Decision-Support Program for
Goals
Presentation
Public
SafetyOfinThis
Oklahoma
(OK-FIRST)
2. Severe
Weather Products
Available
• Improve
communication
with local
NWS offices.
Nationally
• Anticipate
NWS
warnings
forMr.
better
implementation.
Dr. Kevin
Kloesel and
Dale Morris
Oklahoma
Climatological
Survey
• Eventually develop
better
decision-support
systems.
of Oklahoma Data Resources
3. Training and University
Other Weather
Norman, OK
http://okfirst.ocs.ou.edu
What is OK-FIRST?
An initiative by OCS to develop an all-hazard
decision-support system for Public Safety
Agencies (Emergency Management, Fire, and
Police).
Provides access to customized environmental
information and products:
 Oklahoma Mesonet (115 station automated network)
 NEXRAD (~20 products from 15 radars + mosaics)
 National Weather Service text and graphic products
Provides instruction on how to
use and apply the weather data.
1
O
K
F
R
S
T
!
OK-FIRST Decision-Support System
Instructional material integrated into the decision-support
pages aids interpretation of weather patterns and radar
signatures.
Radar-Derived Rainfall Accumulation
The OK-FIRST “Curriculum”
A week-long computer literacy and data
interpretation workshop held at the
University of Oklahoma/Oklahoma Weather
Center
 Combination of lecture materials and hands-on
laboratory case-study exercises.
 Completion of course provides an individual with
certification to use the OK-FIRST system.
Two-day Refresher Courses
 Often held regionally.
 Participants must attend at least one refresher
every 18 months to maintain certification.
Two-day “Assistant’s Workshops”
 Basic meteorology, system usage, and severe weather
concepts for other officials besides the certified participant.
Comprehensive glossary of
weather terminology.
Learning modules for basic metr.
(e.g. fronts, seasons)
Graphical examples of radar,
NWS, and surface map products.
Case studies of severe weather,
flooding, and other events with
online exercises and solutions.
Impacts in Local Communities
One spotter was assigned to a location west of Moore. As the storms moved
in, our spotter coordinator decided -- due to her OK-FIRST display -- to move
the spotter a couple of miles south.
It was this spotter who gave us first knowledge of the large wall cloud that
eventually spawned the tornado that destroyed/severely damaged a dozen
homes and apartment buildings. The spotter’s call -- along with a warning
from NWS Norman -- caused us to activate our warning system, and we
provided our residents about 10 minutes of warning. There were NO injuries
or fatalities from the storm.
The spotter later told us (numerous times) that had the EOC not moved him, he
would not have been in the proper location to see the wall cloud!
This scenario is EXACTLY what OK-FIRST was designed to do! It certainly
worked here!!!
— Gayland Kitch, City of Moore Emergency Management
Impacts in Local Communities
Lincoln County
Emergency Management
Ben Springfield
May 3, 1999
 Tanger Mall was cleared of people before the storm arrived.
 Rural citizens were informed by updates broadcast on scanner and
took shelter.
 Patients at Stroud Hospital were moved into hallways before debris filled
the rooms.
Independent Evaluation
Evaluator’s Summary Finding
 “The project changed the behavior of local public safety
officials and their approach to decision-making. OKFIRST [has] had a positive influence on the types of
decisions they make, how they make those decisions, and
when they are willing to make those decisions. They are
able to provide assistance to support a wide range of
government and public service functions – from providing
information to schedule public works projects to deciding
to cancel the little league tournament scheduled for the
weekend. Thus, the benefits that can accrue from the
application of the skills developed through OK-FIRST can
be far ranging and varied.”
— Dr. Thomas James, Institute for Public Affairs
Building OK-FIRST-like Systems
in Your State
• Federal Grant Opportunities
• State Offices of Emergency Management,
Departments of Public Safety
• Assistance from OK-FIRST
• Don’t forget to involve local NWS personnel (Warning
Coordination Meteorologist)
Proactive Decision-Support for
Severe Weather
• There are literally thousands of available weather
products – results in bookmark clutter.
?
?
?
What products do I use in
what situation?
Proactive Decision-Support for
Severe Weather
• Before the Event
• The remainder of this talk
• During the Event
• NWS Warnings & Severe Weather Statements
• Radar Products
Tornadoes: Reflectivity, Storm-relative Velocity
Hail: Reflectivity, Vertically-Integrated Liquid
Winds: Reflectivity, Velocity
• After the Event (documentation/training)
• Local Storm Reports
• Other databases, news reports, etc.
• Archived warning/radar products
Before The Event Products
• Use for situational awareness
• Use to alert sister agencies for heads-up
• Use to pre-deploy resources
• Products issued from 7-10 days prior to the event
to hours before the event.
U.S. Hazards Assessment
• NWS Climate Prediction Center
(http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov)
• 7-10 day outlook
• Issued weekly on Tuesdays
• Covers fire weather, winter
weather, flooding, severe
weather, and drought
Convective Outlooks
• NWS Storm Prediction Center
(http://www.spc.noaa.gov)
• 1,2,3 day outlook
• Categorical and Probabilistic
Outlooks
• Accompanying discussion
Convective Outlooks
• Day 1 Outlook
outlines areas for severe thunderstorm development
6 to 30 hour outlook
issued 5 times daily:
06Z (the initial Day-1 outlook, valid from 12Z to 12Z)
13Z and 16Z (the "morning updates," valid until 12Z)
20Z (the "afternoon update, " valid until 12Z)
01Z (the "evening update," valid until 12Z)
• Day 2 Outlook
issued twice daily:
08Z and 18Z valid for 24 hours beginning at 12Z the following day
What Makes Severe?
• ¾” hail
• 50 knot (58 mph) wind
• tornado
Convective Outlook Terminology
• Focused on the ingredients for severe weather
• The stability/instability of the atmosphere
• Mechanisms to release the instability
• Mechanisms to generate upward motion
Atmospheric moisture +
vertical motion =
Precipitation
Atmospheric moisture +
explosive vertical motion +
wind shear? =
Severe Weather
Stability
• The tendency for air when slightly displaced vertically
to return to its original position
• Related to the change of temperature with height
(lapse rate) and warm air rising/cool air sinking
• Terms related to stability = CAPE, Cap, Lifted Index
Vertical Temperature Profiles
• Balloon observations
• Twice daily in the U.S.
• 0000 & 1200 UTC
(6 AM/PM in winter)
(7 AM/PM in summer)
~30,000 ft
Temperature
Dew Point
~18,000 ft
~5,000 ft
surface
Deep
Moisture
Sounding Indices
“Positive” Factors
LI or LIFT
=
• CAPE
= Convective
Lifted Index
Available
Potential
Energy
• Somewhat crude
CAPE = 1207
Related to measure
updraft
CAPE = 2183• method
instability (500 mb only)
strength
~30kft
~18kft
~5kft
sfc
Lifted
Index= -6
• CAPE
LI overabove
0 stable
1000
LI 0 to -3 marginal
moderately
unstable
LI -3 toabove
-6 moderate
CAPE
2500
LI -6 unstable
to -9 very unstable
very
LI below
-9 extremely
CAPE
above
3500
unstable unstable
extremely
“~Negative” Factors
~30kft
CAPE = 1207
SW Winds
Air from
Mexican Plateau
~18kft
~5kft
sfc
Temperature
Inversion
(T incr. w/ height)
also known as Cap
Cap (Warm Air Aloft)
850 mb (~5,000 ft) temperature
Ridges and Troughs
Notice the “ridge” in the Central Plains and the “troughs” in the east
and west. The trough is where you observe low 500mb heights (low
thickness values and cold temps.). The ridge is where the highest
thickness values (and highest temps.) are observed.
TROUGH
‘TROF’
TROUGH
RIDGE
Ridges and Troughs
Experience and physics tells us we have cold (dense) air at the
poles, and warm (less dense) air in the tropics.
Cold air takes up less space (more dense) than warm air.
The Earth is constantly trying to reach an equilibrium (moving
warm air poleward and cold air equatorward).
Ever-changing ingredients stirred by troughs and ridges bring
the changing weather conditions that we observe on Earth.
Air Mass Classification
Air Mass Classification
Based on temperature (cold/warm) and moisture
(moist/dry) characteristics of source region
Temp
Moisture
continental
DRY
maritime
MOIST
polar or
(arctic)
COLD
cP (or cA)
COLD & DRY
mP
COLD & MOIST
tropical
WARM
cT
WARM & DRY
mT
WARM & MOIST
Ridges, Troughs, Fronts:
Why Do We Care?
Area between trough and
downstream ridge is preferred
area for large-scale rising motion
Ridges, Troughs, Fronts:
Why Do We Care?
Surface winds
converge
along/ahead
of fronts/drylines
= rising motion
Zone Forecast
OKZ039-044-045-TXZ086-089-090-081247ARCHER TX-CLAY TX-COTTON OK-JEFFERSON OK-STEPHENS OK-WICHITA TXINCLUDING THE CITIES OF...DUNCAN OK...WICHITA FALLS TX
347 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002
.TONIGHT...AN 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE. TEMPERATURES STEADY OR SLOWLY RISING
INTO THE LOWER 60S. SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 15 MPH.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S. WEST WINDS 10
TO 15 MPH BECOMING NORTH EARLY IN THE MORNING.
.TUESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS IN THE MID 40S.
.WEDNESDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE LOWER 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LOWS IN THE MID 50S AND HIGHS NEAR 80.
.SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE MID 50S AND HIGHS IN THE MID 70S.
Good first look, but other products provide
much more specific information
$$
Forecast Discussion
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
342 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002
SEVERE POTENTIAL...
MAIN THREAT WILL BE S OF OUR CWA...BUT AREA SW OF KSPS IS ALSO A BIG
CONCERN. IF SURFACE WARM FRONT AND ASSOCIATED CLEARING/
DESTABILIZATION IN WARM SECTOR PULL N INTO OUR TX ZONES...THREAT OF
TORNADOES WILL INCREASE ACCORDINGLY. ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT HAIL
THREAT FROM ELEVATED STORMS FARTHER NE INTO MUCH OF CWA THRU TONIGHT
AS LL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH MID-LEVEL COOLING. CENTRAL OK
PROGGED TO DESTABILIZE OVERNIGHT TO MUCAPES OF OVER 1200 J/KG. THEN
THERE'S MONDAY. TIMING WILL BE CRITICAL...BUT IF ANY CLEARING/
HEATING OCCURS...AREAS E OF N-S SURFACE FRONT AND NE OF SURFACE LOW
WILL DESTABILIZE ENOUGH FOR A THREAT OF COLD-CORE CONVECTION AND
ASSOCIATED LARGE HAIL.
FLASH FLOODING...
CURRENT PLAN IS TO CONTINUE WATCH TONIGHT IN SE AS IS. PRECIP HAS
BEEN LIFTING N OF WATCH AREA TODAY BUT CONTINUES TO REDEVELOP S-WARD
TO NEAR RED RIVER...IN AREA OF FAVORABLE WARM ADVECTION. THIS IS
LIKELY TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT...WITH GREATEST THREAT OF EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL IN SATURATED AREAS OF SE OK.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NORMAN OK
1204 PM CDT SUN APR 7 2002
.THUNDERSTORM OUTLOOK...
THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS.
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY MORNING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF WESTERN NORTH TEXAS AND
PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA.
.LOCATION...
THE MODERATE RISK IS SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM CROWELL TO ARCHER
CITY. THE SLIGHT RISK IS GENERALLY WEST AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
ALVA...TO CHICKASHA...TO MADILL.
.TIMING...
ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALREADY OCCURRING...THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MODERATE RISK AREA IS EXPECTED FROM AROUND 3 PM
THROUGH MID EVENING. IN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA THE THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST THROUGHOUT THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.
Hazardous Weather Outlook
.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN WIDESPREAD ACROSS OKLAHOMA AND
NORTH TEXAS THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING HOURS AND WILL PERSIST ACROSS
PARTS OF THE AREA THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON. THESE THUNDERSTORMS AND
THE ASSOCIATED CLOUDINESS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE AIRMASS COOL AND
RELATIVELY STABLE. HOWEVER...SKIES MAY PARTIALLY CLEAR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA
AND WESTERN SECTIONS OF NORTH TEXAS. IF THIS CLEARING OCCURS...
ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING COMBINED WITH INCREASING AMOUNTS OF
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL ALLOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
.OTHER HAZARDOUS WEATHER...
HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO FALL SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH TONIGHT. PLEASE REFER TO THE LATEST VERSION OF THIS PRODUCT
/WGUS64 KOUN OR OKCFFAOKC/ FOR MORE INFORMATION REGARDING THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT.
Mesoscale Convective Discussion
SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0324 FOR RED RIVER REGION OF OK/TX
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...
WW WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED SHORTLY FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL
TX/SRN OK ALONG THE RED RIVER.
PARTIAL CLEARING IS AIDING DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF SLOWLY
RETREATING WARM FRONT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL TX THIS AFTERNOON.
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG/NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY
FROM STONEWALL COUNTY TO THROCKMORTON COUNTY...WITH GRADUAL NWD
DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THERE IS SOME
CONCERN THAT NEAR SFC-BASED SUPERCELLS WILL SPREAD NORTH OF WARM
FRONT WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES. FARTHER
NORTH INTO OK...ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF LARGE
SCALE FORCING WITH LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
ELEVATED DEEP CONVECTION/LARGE HAIL THREAT.
Surface Maps and Radar Reflectivity