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If You Forget Everything Else, Please Remember This Our Population Growth Is Not Sustainable (Vitousek 1994) (World Population Clock, Population Reference Bureau 2010 http://www.prb.org/) How Do You Want to Change Growth? Reproduction, births, natality (B) Immigration (I) Population Mortality, death (D) “BIDE” Emigration (E) Regardless, It Will Change: Density Dependent High food addition Low food addition Townsend’s vole No food added Shaded area is winter Density Independent The Future is Uncertain, But Not as Uncertain as Some Would Like You to Believe • “While ecologists involved in management or policy often are advised to learn to deal with uncertainty, there are a number of components of global environmental change of which we are certain—certain that they are going on, and certain that they are humancaused.” • “…addressing global change will require active collaboration with a wide range of scientists outside our field.., but..it is our responsibility to take the lead in dealing with major components of global environmental change.” (Vitousek 1994) Temperatures predicted to rise 1.1 – 6.4 °C over the next 100 years (IPCC) IPCC 2007 SRES A2 2020-2029 2090-2099 Figure SPM.6 IPCC 2007 Our Activities are Endangering Other Species (Chapin et al 2000) Global Change and Biodiversity Continental extinction rates have increased from 10-7 to 10-4 species/species/year Nott, et al. 1995. Current Biology 5:14-17 Biocentric Morality Medicine / Biotechnology Novel Selective Regimes Changed Evolutionary Trajectories Economic, Ecological, Social Costs (Modified from Vitousek et al. 1996 to include Palumbi 2001) We Must Change Our Attitude 1937 •We abuse land because we regard it as a commodity belonging to us. •That land is a community is the basic concept of ecology, but that land is to be loved and respected is an extension of ethics. 1995 (Leopold 1948) MANY PEOPLE ARE CHANGING: DDT BANNED Peregrine Falcon The Peregrine Fund established 1970, Boise, Idaho Nesting pairs lower 48: 1940s = 1,500 1970 = 39 2005 = 1,200 “Let there be no doubt: the banning of DDT in 1972 was the single most important action taken to ensure the survival and recovery of the Peregrine Falcon in North America. Without it, we would not have celebrated the delisting of the American Peregrine in 1999, for it made possible everything good that happened to the Peregrine in the last decades of the 20th Century.” The Peregrine Fund, Return of the Peregrine, 2003, p. 18 Our Laws Help Force Change Endangered Species Act (ESA, 1973) • • • • Lists Species by Petition Stresses maintaining integrity of the ecosystems Goal = “recover” listed species Prohibits federal agencies from authorizing, funding, or carrying out any action that would jeopardize a listed species or destroy or modify its "critical habitat" • Distinctions made between threatened and endangered Recovery is a Long Road, But it is Possible • Captive breeding and release has brought the condor from 22 birds and extirpation from the wild to 300+ birds and 150+ wild birds in two decades • Condors survive in the wild only through constant and costly human assistance and intervention José You Can Make A Difference Restoring Habitat Steve and Suzy Humphrey Fernando Sanchez Playa Hermosa, CR (Shafer 1997) If We Don’t Change It’ll Be Ugly