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Download Bruce`s Fermi Presentation - Fullerton College Staff Web Pages
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An update on Fermi’s famous question about ... EXTRATERRESTRIALS: “Where Are They?” Dr. Bruce Cordell Fullerton College May, 2006 Tonight’s Path... • What is Fermi’s Paradox anyway? • How has Fermi’s Paradox traditionally been explained? • What new data do we have that illuminates this question? • What tentative conclusions are possible at this time? Our Galaxy is Old Fermi’s Paradox • Our Galaxy is old (12+ billion years) • Plus, it is moderate in size (100,000 l.y.) • Any advanced civilization could colonize the Galaxy in a few million years… Therefore, ETs should be here…so... “Where are they?” Possible Types of Answers to Fermi’s Paradox • They don’t exist • They can’t contact us (comm or trans) • They don’t care to contact us • They are here. Maybe...They don’t exist... The Drake Equation N=R*fs*fp*ne*fl*fi*fc*L http://www.seds.org/~rme/drake.html Does N=1 ? Are There Other Planets? As of 11/14/2008, 326 planets are known to exist outside our solar system! No Earth-like Planets Are Known http://www.jtwinc.com/Extrasolar/mainframes.html A Unusual Solar System! The Secret to Earth... Earth’s Big Brother Are Earth-like Environments Rare? • Star Lifetime • Distance/Spin/ Oceans • Mass/Atmos Recycling • Circular Orbits • Large Satellite • Jupiter Comet Filter • Solar (2%+) Metallicity • Galaxy Orbit (a few %) • Magnetic Field/Atmos Earth’s Climatic Anchor Do They All Die Young? • • • • • • Cosmic Dust Clouds Supernovas Small Black Holes Environmental Crises Machine Intelligence Others... Maybe...Contact is Impossible... • They Can’t Find Us? Von Neumann Machines • They Can’t Get Here? V= 0.001c • They Can’t Communicate? Arecibo and beams Maybe…They’re Just Not Interested... • • • • We are subjects of an experiment? We are being monitored and controlled? They are not gregarious? They are playing with an inferior species? • We’re considered dangerous? We cannot judge their motivations. Maybe…They’re Here!… Are Some UFOs ET Spacecrafts? • Extraordinary unidentified sightings do exist by reliable observers • Physical evidence includes photos and environmental effects • Influentials add authenticity (e.g. Mitchell) • Government interest and cover-ups are documented “UFOs are real.” Apollo Astronaut A UFO Sightings Sampler Whatever they are, UFOs do exist. • Best FOIA Jet Incident • Best self-admitted - Tehran, Iran (1976) Gov’t CoverUp • Best Photo Roswell, NM (1947) McMinneville,OR • Best multi-witness • Best Public SightingCE-III - Fr. Gill, Washington National Papua New Guinea Airport (1952) (1959) • Best UFO Survey of • Best Abduction Astronomers Travis Walton, AZ Sturrock The Astronomical Observations... • There are no electromagnetic signals from ETs • There are no Dyson Spheres • There is no observational evidence for ET spacecraft in the Galaxy • There are no “polluted” stellar spectra • There are no known Earth-like planets • There is no convincing evidence for ET artifacts on other planets Two Preliminary Observations • Everything we see in the Galaxy is consistent with a non-ET model… Therefore, ETs may not exist. • A wealth of unidentified sightings by reliable witnesses exists that is supported by impressive evidence...Therefore, UFOs may exist. 2 Speculative Models Currently Consistent with Observations 1. A Blast From the Past UFOs might be Von Neumann Machines of ancient ET civilizations that are no longer present 2. Messengers of Deception UFOs might be a human-created Control System designed to reduce global conflicts by simulating an ET threat
