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IAOS 2014 Conference on Official Statistics 8 ~ 10 October 2014, Da Nang, Vietnam Socio-economic & IT Changes in Korea, and KOSTAT’s Responses Bongho Choi([email protected]) Senior Government Officer at the Statistics Korea Secretary for Association of National Census & Statistics Directors of America, Asia & the Pacific Vice President of the Korean Data Analysis Society(www.kdas.or.kr) Professional Lecturer on Prevention against Sexual Violence 1 Socio-economic Changes occurred in Korea Socio-economic Development in Korea 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2013 Per capita Value of Exchange CPI (%) GNI (US $, export rate (per nominal) (in million 1 US $) US $) 79. 32.8 65.0 105 175.1 271.5 13.5 255 835.2 316.7 16.0 607 5,081.0 484.0 25.3 1,660 17,504.8 659.9 28.7 2,355 30,283.1 890.2 2.5 6,303 65,015.7 712.1 8.6 11,735 125,058.0 770.9 4.5 11,865 172,267.5 1,264.5 2.3 18,508 284,418.7 1,011.6 2.8 22,170 466,383.8 1,134.8 3.0 26,205 559,648.7 1,055.4 1.3 Population employed in agriculture (%) 63.0(’63) 58.5 50.4 45.7 34.0 24.9 17.9 11.8 10.6 7.9 6.6 6.1 Total fertility rate 6.0 5.0 4.5 3.4 2.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.2 Change in Structure of GDP in Korea 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Total 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 Agri., Forestry & Fishery 29.3 16.2 8.9 4.6 2.6 Mining & Manufacturing 19.5 26.4 28.1 28.6 30.8 Construction 5.1 8.0 11.3 7.0 6.5 Electricity, Gas & Piped water 1.4 2.2 2.1 2.5 2.0 Services 44.7 47.2 49.5 57.3 58.2 Change in Employment by Industries from Household Survey in Korea (in thousand , %) Total Agri., Forestry & Fishery Mining & Manufacturing SOCㆍOther Services 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 9,618 (100.0) 13,684 18,085 21,156 23,829 (100.0) 4,846 (50.4) 4,654 3,237 2,243 1,566 (6.6) 1,377 (14.3) 3,079 4,990 4,311 4,049 ( 17.0) 3,395 (35.3) 5,951 9,858 14,602 18,214 (76.4) 2 KOSTAT’s Responses in the Past Early Stage of Statistical Organization in Korea Period Major Contents 1945 ~ 1955 ◦ With the establishment of modern republic in 1948, Statistics Bureau was set up under the Public Information Office. ◦ 1st Population Census was taken in 1949. 1958 ~ 1963 ◦ US Statistical Advisory Group (led by Dr. Stuart Rice) was in Korea and made several recommendations which were implemented. 1955 ~ 1961 ◦ Korea War brought about political, economic and social chaos. ◦ Data collection was difficult or almost impossible. ◦ Statistics Bureau was transferred to Ministry of Home Affairs. 1961 ◦ Statistics Bureau was transferred to Economic Planning Board. 1962 ◦ Statistics Act was promulgated. ◦ Korean government launched 1st 5-year Economic Development Plan. Change of NSO’s Organization 2005.8.1~ KOSTAT (Vice Minister level) under Ministry of Strategy & Finance 2005~ 1990~ 2006 : Creation of Statistical Development Institute 2007 : Creation of Survey Management Bureau 2008 : 700 persons came from Ministry of Agriculture 2009 : Merge 11 Provincial offices into 5 Regional offices 1990.12.27~2005.7.30 KOSTAT (Assistant Minister level) under Ministry of Finance & Economy 1961~ 1955~ 1991 : Creation of Statistical Training Institute 1998 : 500 persons came from Ministry of Agriculture & Fishery 1961.7.22~1990.12.26 National Bureau of Statistics under Economic Planning Board 1975 : 8 Provincial offices were newly created. 1955.2.17~1961.7.21 1945~ Statistical Bureau under Ministry of Home Affairs 1948.8.15~1955.2.16 Statistical Bureau under Public Information Office Increasing Trend of Personnel at KOSTAT No. of Divisions At Headquarters Head Senior Managers Divisions Total Regular Contract workers At Regional Offices 16 Dec. 1963 1 - 4 230 92 138 ? 14 Feb. 1968 1 1 6 217 100 117 ? 24 May 1971 1 1 8 261 219 42 261 14 Aug. 1975 1 3 10 264 208 56 289 1981 1 344 198 246 539 7 Apr. 1990 1 534 256 278 551 1 Aug. 2005 1 6 25 486 486 ? 1,234 2013 1 12 45 876 676 200 2,500 ☜ ☞ Including those interviewers (about 800) working as a contract-basis. - On 1 Aug. 2005, the post of Deputy Commissioner was newly created. Change of Evaluation for Staff’s Performance at KOSTAT Past Management system Logic : Input Since 2007 Management by Objectives and Seniority Processes Balanced Score Card (BSC) system Output Outcome BSC – Vision, Mission, Core Values, Strategic Goals – 4 Perspectives (Customer, Financial, Internal processes, Employee Learning & Growth) – Every staff-members are evaluated according to the above 4 perspectives. Use of IT Technologies in Producing Statistics Year 1990 Events affected the statistical system 1995 1997 1999 2000 Yahoo launched its business in Korea Internet users reached 10 million 2002 2003 2004 2005 Internet users reached 30 million 2006 2009 I-phone was introduced in Korea 2010 Started to join Facebook. 2011 2012 Utilization of IT in Statistics ∙ OMR for 1990 Population Census was used at headquarters ∙ OMR for 1995 Population Census was used at local offices ∙ CAPI was introduced for monthly LFS ∙ Key entry to PC for 1995 Population Census at local offices ∙ CASI was introduced for monthly Survey on Mining & Manufacturing. ∙ PDA was introduced for CPS. ∙ PDA was introduced for monthly LFS ∙ Internet survey system was introduced for 2005 Population Census. ∙ Electronic diaries for monthly HIES was introduced. ∙ Internet survey rate for 2010 Population Census recorded 47.9%. ∙ Net-book replaced PDA for CPS. Internet users reached 40 millions ∙ ICR was introduced for 1st Economic Census. ∙ Issue on Big Data has arisen Statistics Developed over time at KOSTAT Total 1960s 1970s 1980s 15 12 6 Decennial • National Capital Stock Survey (ceased) 5-yearly • Population & Housing, Industry, Wholesale & Retail Trade, Agriculture & Fisheries • Population Projection (1986) • Statistical Manpower & Budget (1972) Biennial Annual • Vital Statistics (1962) • Mining & Manufacturing(1968) • Agricultural Production Cost (1962) • Basic Agricultural Statistics (1968) • Fishery Catchment Survey (1970) • Wholesale & • Construction (1974) Retail Trade • Internal Migration (1976) (1988) • Transportation (1977) • Service • Social Statistics Survey (1977) Industry (1988) • Food Grain Consumption (1977) • GRDP (1989) Quarterly Farm HH Parity Survey(1965) • Livestock Survey(1976) Monthly • EAPS(1962) • HIES(1962) • Consumer Prices(1964) • Farm HH Economy(1962) • Fisheries HH Economy (1963) • Manufacturing (1970) • Construction Orders Received (1976) • Machinery Orders Received (1979) • Manufacturing Production Capacity & Operation Ratio • Composite Indices (1981) • Wholesale & Retail Trade Statistics Developed over time at KOSTAT Total 1990s After 2000 ~ 12 16 5-yearly • Population Projection for Provinces • Time Use Survey (1999) • Household Projection (2002) • Economic Census (2011) Biennial • Statistical Demands Survey (1994) • Response Burden Survey (1997) • Multi-culture Family Survey (2009) Annual • Basic Characteristics of Establishments (1995) • Life Table (1994) • Cause of Death (1999) • Agricultural Area Survey (1999) • Agri. & Fishery Establishments (2000) • Fishery Cultivating Entities (2004) • International Migration (2004) • Enterprise Activities Survey (2006) • Survey on Private Education Expenditures (2007) • Survey on Professional, Scientific & Technical Service Industries (2008) • National Wealth Estimation (2009) • Household Finance & Welfare Survey (2011) • Household Green Activities Survey (2011) Quarterly or Monthly • Value of Construction Put-in-place (1998) • Estimation Index of Equipment Investment (1998) • Current Activity on Service Industries (1999) • Consumer Sentiment (ceased) • Cyber-shopping mall survey (2000) • E-commerce by enterprises (2001) • Local Area Labor Force Survey (2008) • Index on All Industry Production (2011) Summary of Changes during 1970s Korea’s economy kept growing and expanding. Local statistical offices were firstly established in 8 places under the National Bureau of Statistics. Social Statistics Survey was firstly conducted. Monthly surveys on mining & manufacturing, construction orders received, machinery orders received were newly conducted. Local agricultural statistical offices were firstly established in 80 places under the Ministry of Agriculture. Survey on Statistical Manpower and Budget was newly conducted. Foreign Trade Statistics by UN’s SITC(Standard International Trade Classification) was started. Summary of Changes during 1980s Besides Government’s efforts, the global economic boo, helped Korea to achieve really great success in 1980s. Social development plan was added to existing economic development plan. Annual surveys on wholesale and retail trade as well as on service industry was newly conducted. Composite indices were newly compiled. GRDP was newly compiled. Vital registration data were actively utilized to produce statistics on infant mortality, life-table, population projection. Summary of Changes during 1990s For the first half of 1990s, Korean economy continued a stable and strong growth. However, thing changed quickly in 1997 with the Asian Financial Crisis. Head of NBOS was upgraded to the level of Assistant Minister, which made NBOS became an independent organization. Statistics Day was firstly designated. First introduction of CAPI for monthly survey on labor force. Personnel in agricultural statistics were transferred to NSO. IT technologies started to be used. Summary of Changes during 2000s Economic growth stabilized and policies needed to focus on more specific subjects (work & life balance, well-beings, economic equality). Large-scale international statistical meetings were held(53rd ISI Session in 2001, 3rd OECD World Forum in 2009). Statistical Reform Plan was made and implemented (Statistics Law was amended, system on statistical quality management and statistics-based policy management was introduced, Statistical Development Institute was set up) Statistical personnel(700) from Ministry of Agriculture were transferred to NSO. Use of IT technologies in the production of statistics(PDA, CASI, electronic diaries) for surveys on consumer prices, labor force and household income & expenditure )was strengthened. Agenda dealt with Reform Plan in 2004/05 • Conduct of a survey on the demand of statistics. • Preparation of 5-Year Statistical Development Plan. • To solve the issue on how to use the administrative data for the production of new statistics and the improvement of existing statistics. • To find solutions on how to enhance the capacity of regional statistical offices and to improve the relationship between regional statistical offices and the local governments. • Amendment of the Statistics Law. • Creation of a new National Statistical Committee. • Strengthening of statistical capacity of other ministries and local governments as well as preparation of a redeployment plan of national statistical personnel. Introduction of “Statistics-based Policy Management” • Presidential Decree revised in 2007 Government agencies shall submit relevant statistics or plans to develop them when they revise acts. • Crucial role in evaluating policies Planning stage Execution Stage Evaluation Stage Statistics-based Policy Management 3 KOSTAT’s Responses in the Future Ten Issues Arose Recently at Statistics Korea 1. On Data Dissemination The Statistics Act stipulates that strict political neutrality must be observed to protect the credibility of data, with all findings announced without delay. However, the statistics on CPI, Industrial Production and Employment have been provided one day earlier than the official release time to the Blue House and the Ministry of Finance & Strategy. The other statistics on annual and ad-hoc surveys have been provided a week earlier. Statistics Korea is now considering to stop these practices through amending the Statistics Law. 2. Increase of use of micro-data Requests for micro-data with names and addresses of individuals are increasing, especially from the private sector. 3. On Governance for Statistical Organizations - Fixed-term for the commissioner's job is not yet set up in Korea. - Chairmanship of the National Statistical Committee (to the P.M.) - Change of the oversight ministry (to the P.M.) 4. Weak trust in some statistics compiled by Statistics Korea Especially, statistics on income distribution (Gini-coefficient), unemployment rate, consumer price indices. 5. Low Perception on Statistics General public does not understand difficulties in the process of data production. It is not easy to get full cooperation when we conduct statistical surveys. General public regards statistics are free goods. 6. Compilation of SNA The authority to compile the System of National Accounts has been given to the Bank of Korea not Statistics Korea. Statistics Korea is currently in charge of the Gross Regional Domestic Production. 7. Statistical Activities of Local Governments and RSOs Statistical activities of local governments are weak. Each provincial governments has a very few statistical personnel. Statistical activities of Regional Statistical Offices under Statistics Korea are also found to be weak. Their main duties are to be the field-work especially in data capturing. 8. Existence of Different organizational culture at KOSTAT Currently, three labor unions exist. One is for staff-members working at the headquarters, another one is for staff-members working at the regional offices, and the other one is for interviewers with indefinite contract-basis. Transfers of personnel to Statistics Korea from the Ministry of Agriculture twice (in 1998 and in 2008) have also affected the work environment. 9. Regional Statistical Offices - Regional Statistical Offices request the abolition of the telephonemonitoring system for quality checks. - Regional Statistical Offices is now operated as the independent agency-type. Director-Generals of each regional offices are appointed on a contract basis of two to three years. 10. Performance appraisal system for staff-members Two performance evaluation system exist. One is the traditional system which is done simply and manually by supervisors. The other one is the Balanced-score Card(BSC) system which is done by the performance indicators’ (numerically). KOSTAT’s Core Strategy Advance National Statistics Develop relevant statistics Enhance efficiency Improve user’s trust Ensure convenient access To Develop Relevant Statistics for Supporting Policies Produce more policy-based statistics • Produce income inequality indicators at diverse dimensions • Compile supplementary indicators of unemployment rate • Produce statistics of newly emerging global agenda (quality of life, green growth, climate change…) To Develop Relevant Statistics for Supporting Policies Switch to centralized statistical system in data management • To Enhance Policy responsiveness of Statistics ◦ Conduct Surveys for other ministries by KOSTAT - By using superior infrastructure of KOSTAT (Interviewers, IT system, etc.) ◦ Maintain decentralized system for administrative data ◦ To set up “Integrated Data Management Institute” • Improve accuracy and confidence of official statistics Designation of Responsible Statistical Officers Central Governments International Organizations Ministry of Labor Ministry of Health Ministry of Education Seoul Busan … Local Governments (16 Provinces) Public Entities 5 Regional Statistics Offices … … Cities/Counties/ Districts (230) 49 Sub – Regional Offices ∙ Bank of Korea ∙ Korea Labor Institute ∙ KIHASA ∙ Various Associations Local Offices To Enhance Efficiency More use of administrative data • Some statistics can be replaced by administrative data. ex) Population & Housing Census, business surveys • The revised Statistics Act provided the legal basis to use administrative data for producing statistics. ( 2007) • Many issues remain to be resolved - Conflicts between agencies, technical problems to protect privacy, different classifications, etc. To Enhance Efficiency Active use of administrative data • Revise the tax law in order to use tax data - “Statistics Korea may use tax data to compile statistics” (in Tax law) • Strengthen the electronic security for confidentiality of tax data - separate intranet from internet - management of log files • Various tax data to be accessed - To set up Business register (name, address, telephone number, economic activity, etc.) hod Respondent-friendly survey techniques Households impossible Households preferring Households preferring to interview in the daytime interview surveys Internet surveys and households (Rotation, In-migrating and (One-person and non-respondent households) CAPI CADI preferring CATI dual income households) CASI CATI To Improve User’s Trust Conduct surveys on behalf of other statistical offices • Weak survey infrastructure at many statistical offices • Survey on behalf of other statistics offices utilizing KOSTAT interviewers. Ex) OECD International Assessment of Adult Competencies survey contracted out by the Education Ministry (2010) To have Convenient Accessibility Strengthening one-stop statistics service • KOSIS : Korean Statistical Information Service • Store 170 million data cells • Planning to integrate all national statistics to KOSIS. 467550 (Apr. ,2008) Number of KOSIS users (per month) Users 500000 400000 300000 200000 100000 0 March, 12007 2 3 May 4 5 July 6 7 Sep. 8 9 Nov. 10 11 Jan. 2008 12 13 March 14 Who Are Users? Domestic - Central governments - Local governments Abroad - International organizations - Foreign countries Users (demands) for Statistics Businesses - Enterprises - Associations - Labor unions - Marketers Research - Universities - Research institutes - Opinion polls General Public - News media - Students - Political parties - Citizens In KOSIS, any people can find the requested data by himself and On-line publication service is also available. An Example found from KOSIS – Population Pyramid An Example found from KOSIS’s e-national indicators system – GDP and Growth Rate KOSTAT’s Efforts to Use Big Data Research on big data use in official statistics and pilot production of statistics Establish a task force responsible for big data use and train human resources “Earlier dissemination of the Mining and Manufacturing Production Index by using media data” Support rapid and accurate production of the Mining and Manufacturing Production Index Collection and analysis of Internet data Provision of visualized analysis function Media data is automatically collected and used for objective editing (checking changes in establishments and items, finding outliers) before finalizing the Index. Easier understanding of time-series data (index and volume) by providing visualized analysis function KOSTAT’s Efforts for Data Visualization Statistics → Knowledge → Policy Better Policy for Better Life Statistics → Knowledge → Policy → Better Life Visualization and transformation of statistics into knowledge In OECD World Forums, the transformation of statistics into knowledge, a new paradigm in knowledge-based society, continuously discussed. Dissemination → Communication Changes from statistical production to statistical utilization There was a growing need for the creation of value added by the public using data in their daily lives, going beyond a mere dissemination of statistical data. 37 SStrengthening International Cooperation Activities (Bi-lateral) GER(’97) Russia (‘95) KAZ(’10) China (’93) Uzb(’11) Japan (’82) Neth.(’11) +Eurostat(’10) Thai(’02) Vietnam (’02) Egypt (’12) Iran(’08) UAE(’10) Abu Dhabi(‘12) Indonesia (’11) Thank you ! 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