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Fusion RAMI Evolution, part 1 of 2: A Low TRL RAMI Process for Fusion Energy Research and Development Tom Weaver I-Li Lu, Ph.D. Counter CBRNE DEW Applied Statistics Platform Systems Technology Platform Performance Technology Boeing Research and Technology Boeing Research and Technology ARIES 2011 Quarter #2 Review 27-28 July, 2011; Gaithersburg, Maryland Page 1 of 18 Fusion RAMI Strategy Tailor aerospace/nuclear industrial RM&SH process to fusion Enlisted aid of relevant support groups • I-Li Lu: Applied Mathematics and Statistics Knowledge Capture Boeing Research and Technology • James Robinson: Reliability, Maintainability, and Testability Boeing Commercial Aircraft ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 2 of 18 Presentation Agenda • Two parts – 1) Administration, Background, and Theory – 2) Fusion application of the process • Key Concepts – RAMI model→test→model cycle shown effective in aerospace – Develop a fusion plant RAMI estimating tool including available data and physics models for missing data – Use tool results to advise experiment plans to increase benefits and reduce risks – Repeat cycle with more detailed tool and more informative tests ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 3 of 18 Part 1 Administration and Process Background and Theory ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 4 of 18 June – Sept 2011 Activity Responsible Entity Input Provided Customer and Regulator SoW and Spec Rqmts Program Manager SoW and Spec Rqmts Prime Contractor Standards “Command Media” RAMI Engineering Data, Methods, Tools, Expertise, Processes CAE/CAD/CAM Systems Requirements Logistics Design Engineering Candidate Logistics Support Analyses HW & SW Rqmts Systems and Safety Engineering Requirements Suppliers RAMI Data ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Design Data RAMI Process Define RAMI Program Collect & Provide Experience Data Output Provide RAMI in the Product Assess RAMI In Design And Production Requirements and Data RAMI “Design” Incorporation of RAMI in Design Page 5 of 18 Oct – Dec 2011 Activity Responsible Entity Input Provided Customer and Regulator SoW and Spec Rqmts Program Manager SoW and Spec Rqmts Prime Contractor Standards “Command Media” RAMI Engineering Data, Methods, Tools, Expertise, Processes CAE/CAD/CAM Systems Requirements Logistics Design Engineering Candidate Logistics Support Analyses HW & SW Rqmts Systems and Safety Engineering Requirements Suppliers RAMI Data ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Design Data RAMI Process Define RAMI Program Collect & Provide Experience Data Output Provide RAMI in the Product Assess RAMI In Design And Production Requirements and Data RAMI “Design” Incorporation of RAMI in Design Page 6 of 18 Critical Fusion R&D Issue • Chicken-and-Egg Problem – Need more data – Need facilities to get data – Need to know what to build with scarce funds – Need more data • ICF found a defense escape route • Industrial RAMI may show way out for MCF – Data Mining – Engineering-guided Experiment Planning with RAMI as prototype ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 7 of 18 Critical Fusion RAMI Issue • Not unique in attempting RAMI estimation and enhancement across a major technological leap; however, • The gap the technological leap fusion is to cross is unusually large. • Aerospace and military engineering addressing the issue ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 8 of 18 Introduction to RCM Reliability-Centered Maintenance (RCM) An analytical process used to determine appropriate failure management strategies to ensure safe and cost-effective operations of a physical asset in a specific operating environment. Goal of RCM • • Avoid or reduce failure CONSEQUENCES Not necessarily avoid failures (failure prevention remains an important part of the process, it is just recognized as never 100% possible) Failure Consequences are the effects of failure on: • Personal and Equipment Safety • Environmental Health/Compliance • Operations • Economics ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 9 of 18 RCM Definition • SAE JA1011 “Evaluation Criteria for RCM Processes” defines seven questions for RCM: • What are the functions…of the asset…(functions)? • In what ways can it fail…(functional failures)? • What causes each functional failure (failure modes)? • What happens when each failure occurs (failure effects)? • In what way does each failure matter (failure consequences)? • What should be done…(proactive tasks and intervals)? • What should be done if a suitable proactive task cannot be found? ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 10 of 18 RCM History • Early PM Programs based on concept that periodic overhauls ensured reliability and, therefore, safety Overhaul: Tearing down and rebuilding components • By the 1960s: • Introduction of 747, DC-10, L-1011 led airlines to conclusion that current preventive maintenance philosophies were unsustainable • FAA and Commercial Aviation Industry formed a group to study preventive maintenance • FAA/Airline Group conclusion: overhauls had little or no effect on overall reliability or safety in many cases • Why? ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 11 of 18 Assumptions Needed Challenging What the airlines and manufacturers discovered. Statistical analysis showed, in most cases, no change in safety or reliability when overhaul limits changed. Initial overhaul limits were not analytically based. Facts about overhauls Many failure modes do not support overhaul philosophyhave no ‘right’ overhaul time. Lose considerable component life. Overhauls re-introduce infant mortality failures. Conditional Probability of Failure High repair costs for little or no benefits. Overhaul interval Time Led to the creation of the “Maintenance Steering Group” ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 12 of 18 Found 6 Patterns of Failure Modes of part failures must be characterized Fraction of parts in Civil Aircraft Condition monitoring is only effective on a small fraction of parts Infant Mortality “Bathtub” curve Wear out zone Clearly defined wear out zone Wear out zone Opportunity for Condition Based Maintenance 4% Continuous degradation 2% Continuous degradation, but no defined wear out zone or age 5% Low chance of early failure to a constant probability of failure 7% 14% Constant probability of failure (random failure) High Infant Mortality dropping to constant or slowly increasing probability of failure 68% Condition-Based Maintenance becomes an element of the new approach ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 13 of 18 Maintenance Generations 1960s maintenance mostly still used a first generation “fix it when it breaks” philosophy Philosophy needed changing in order to achieve greater expectations – Improved availability, reliability, safety, cost effectiveness, etc. This is an excerpt of the first chapter of the book "Reliability-centered Maintenance" by John Moubray. ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 14 of 18 New Techniques Example ICBM maintenance was improved by a relook at equipment monitoring, analysis and design ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 15 of 18 The Solution Boeing engineers and statisticians have developed a Decision Support System that is Data-Driven, Knowledge-Guided, and Statistical-Based, with analysis that will provide Cost and Risk Optimized solutions. Key Factors: – The need surfaced in Maintenance Steering Group (MSG) international oversight body. – All major regulatory agencies and OEMs participate. – Boeing guided the development of the Issue Paper for Scheduled Maintenance – FAA has approved the Issue Paper and tool – Centralized Task Force with multi-disciplinary approach : Subject Matter Experts from Engineering, Information Technology, Statistics, Operations Research, Data/Text Mining, and Economics. Remark: what distinguishes Boeing approach • Novel measures for degradation using Latent and Evident Lifetimes • Bottom-Up approach for task and system reliability • Advanced statistical reliability methods developed by thinking outside the box • Centralized software development and technology integration ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 16 of 18 Next Step Part 2, Fusion Application of the Process will be after a break ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 17 of 18 ARIES Quarterly Review Gaithersburg, MD – 27, 28 July 2011 Page 18 of 18