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FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY | NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION Public Eye News and views impacting public funds Spring-Summer 2015 IN THIS ISSUE • Public voice: Meredith Williams, Executive Director of the National Council on Teacher Retirement (NCTR), makes a compelling case for the importance of public pension plans and discusses the political challenges they face. • Confidence boost: As sentiment improves, Anastasia Amoroso, Global Market Strategist, explores reasons why 2015 will be the year of the U.S. consumer. • 2015 U.S. commercial real estate outlook: Attractive commercial real estate values can be found in properties that will benefit from improved tenant demand as well as muted supply. • Active allocation views: Views from our Global Investment Management Solutions-Global Multi-Asset Group. LIKE 2014, 2015 will be a year in which low yields and equities remain strong. Despite higher U.S. domestic production, lower oil prices still act as a tax break for Americans who devote a large share of their income to energy spending. With lower gasoline prices, rising employment and, most likely, rising wages, 2015 should be a year of broadening U.S. expansion, with consumer spending leading the way. In this evolving investment landscape, many of our public plans are evaluating how they can best position assets for growth while managing risk. They are asking for our latest thinking and insights to inform these decisions. To that end, we have developed this semi-annual newsletter to deliver some of our latest thinking to you in one consolidated format and offer our partnership and perspective as you continue to refine your portfolio. Thank you for your continued trust and confidence in J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Public voice Meredith Williams, Executive Director of the National Council on Teacher Retirement (NCTR), makes a compelling case for the importance of public pension plans and discusses the political challenges they face. Q: Tell us about NCTR, whose membership includes 68 state, territorial, and local pension systems, serving nearly 20 million active and retired teachers and other public employees. What is the group’s mission and what is your role? WILLIAMS: Number one, we advocate for retirement security for public servants, particularly those in the educational field. We think that's a really important issue, and it's under increasing attack. Our constituencies include the systems, trustees and administrators as well as our commercial associate members. We enable these constituencies to come together and learn what’s going on in the industry. When we all get together, it’s a loud gathering, because everybody has a unique perspective. As executive director, I report to an executive committee comprised of five trustees and five administrators. Q: What investment trends are you witnessing across the public funds landscape? WILLIAMS: People are very in tune with what their liabilities PROFILE Meredith Williams Executive Director of the National Council on Teacher Retirement (NCTR) Education: BS: Business Administration, Economics, University of Kansas JD: Washburn University School of Law First job: Parts runner, McCarney Ford, Bismarck, ND Date started with NCTR: July, 2012 Hobbies: Home DIY Favorite movie: “Bullitt” Favorite book: “The Presidents Club” Q: What can be done about that? WILLIAMS: Our funds need to do a better job of educating both their own membership and the public. They need to explain to their beneficiaries and contributors why these pension plans are so important, and why people need to be actively engaged in reaching out to the wider political environment they live in. Q: What effective arguments can they make? are doing today and tomorrow, and they are considering how liability management impacts asset allocation. We're seeing far more asset allocation studies, and we're seeing them done on a more regular basis. I think we've got to be careful that we don’t get away from the fact that we represent long-term, patient capital investors. We want to be sustainable for decades down the road. WILLIAMS: Public pension plans can let legislative decision- Q: What has been the biggest challenge in your job and in your prior jobs as the Executive Director of the Colorado pension fund and the Executive Secretary of the Kansas public pension plan? Q: During your tenure in Colorado, the state legislature took important action to improve the plan’s funding status. How did that happen? WILLIAMS: The biggest challenge is politics. In days gone by, enhancements put in place that, in retrospect, were pretty expensive. By 2008, we realized that we were no longer a sustainable system, and that, in fact, we would run out of money in the foreseeable future. That’s breaking a sacred trust with your employees, employers and taxpayers. We knew we had to change, sooner rather than later. Our solution was something we called “shared sacrifice.” people from both sides of the political aisle came together to make the necessary changes for a pension system. Today it's becoming very partisan and that makes it much, much harder. I’m old enough to remember when public pensions, as a whole, were under the radar screen. Now we’re targeted. Everyone seems to have their own solutions and oftentimes they’re pretty scary. 2 P UBL IC EY E: S P R IN G-S UM M ER 2 0 15 makers know how economically impactful these plans are. I think we undersell and underplay that. The nice thing about our benefit structures is that our benefits are constant. When the economy goes down and employment drops off, those benefit checks are still going out. In certain jurisdictions, they are just a huge, huge force. WILLIAMS: In the late 1990s, there were some benefits Q: How did that work? WILLIAMS: Benefits were lowered. People had to work longer before they became eligible to retire. Employers had to pay incrementally more into the system. With patience and with everyone fulfilling their obligations under the law, it continues to work. It’s key that those contributions come in as planned, on a systematic basis, year after year. Absent that, it doesn't work. Q: How does NCTR help member organizations with their fiduciary responsibilities? WILLIAMS: The focus of our educational offerings will vary from year to year, but they always have an underlying fiduciary concept to them. For the last couple of years, and into the current year, we’re pretty significantly focused on GASB. Q: What about governance issues? WILLIAMS: That's another huge issue and it illustrates the diversity of our industry. Some plans have a sole trustee and that can work really well. I’m not sure what the magic number is in terms of board size. In Colorado, I had one of the bigger boards, at one point there were 16 members. That gives you great diversity of perspective, but at times it’s like herding cats. Q: What keeps you up at night? WILLIAMS: I'm really afraid of what things are going to look like down the road as baby boomers are, frankly, forced into retirement, and they're not prepared. I’m taking a broad view here, across both the public and private sectors. For many people, retirement security is going to be pretty wobbly. Q: Meredith, it has been a real pleasure speaking with you. Thank you for your time and thoughts. One last question before we end: What gives you the greatest satisfaction in your work? WILLIAMS: My greatest satisfaction has been the wonderful people that I’ve been privileged to work with. They're dedicated and they take their jobs very seriously. Confidence boost Anastasia Amoroso, Global Market Strategist, explores reasons why 2015 will be the year of the U.S. consumer AS SENTIMENT IMPROVES, 2015 WILL BE THE YEAR OF THE U.S. CONSUMER After a long stretch of sluggish growth, the U.S. economy is finally kicking into higher gear. Give much of the credit to a rejuvenated American consumer. On the four economic measures most important to consumers—the unemployment rate, gas prices, home prices and stock prices—Americans see steady, and in some cases dramatic, progress. The pace won’t let up: 2015, we believe, will be the year of the U.S. consumer. A surge in consumer confidence The mood has already shifted. During the last eight months, consumer confidence, as tracked by the University of Michigan survey, has suddenly surged. In April, the preliminary consumer sentiment index stood at 95.9, just below January’s expansion peak of 98.1 and well above the 84.1 level that prevailed in April 2014. As can be seen in Exhibit 1 (on the following page), Americans are far more hopeful about the economic environment than they were just eight months ago. No economic data point has done more to fuel that sense of optimism than a falling unemployment rate, which reached 5.5% in February. Without question, the job picture has brightened. The U.S. economy produced almost 600,000 net new jobs in the three months ending in March and over 3.1 million in 2014, the best year for U.S. job growth in this century. To be sure, wage growth has been a major disappointment; in March, average hourly earnings for production and nonsupervisory workers increased 1.8% from a year earlier. But some economic indicators point to healthier paychecks ahead. Not only are there more workers, but they are also on the job for longer hours—non-farm business hours worked, which combine these measures, rose 5.1% in 4Q 2014, the biggest jump in 16 years (Exhibit 2). In another hopeful sign, a growing percentage of small businesses plan to increase employee pay. Historically, this measure coincides with a move, nine months later, in actual wages and salaries. J.P. MORGAN ASSE T MA N A G E ME N T 3 In the past eight months, consumer confidence has soared. EXHIBIT 1: CONSUMER SENTIMENT INDEX, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN, 1972-MARCH 2015 AND 12-MONTH S&P 500 RETURNS FOLLOWING SENTIMENT CYCLE LOWS AND HIGHS Consumer Confidence and the Stock Market | 29 GTM – U.S. Consumer Sentiment Index – University of Michigan 130 Impact on Consumer Sentiment from a… 10% y-o-y rise in gasoline prices 10% y-o-y rise in home prices 10% y-o-y rise in the S&P 500 1% y-o-y rise in the unemployment rate 120 Economy 110 100 Aug. 1972 -6.2% 90 -1.4 pts +1.8 +2.8 - 4.4 Jan. 2000 -2.0% Jan. 2004 +4.4% Mar. 1984 +13.5% May 1977 +1.2% Jan. 2007 -4.2% Average: 84.8 80 Mar. 2003 +32.8% Oct. 2005 +14.2% 70 Oct. 1990 +29.1% 60 Feb. 1975 +22.2% 50 40 Mar. 2015: 93.0 '72 '74 '76 May 1980 +19.2% '78 '80 '82 '86 '88 '90 '92 '94 '96 '98 '00 '02 '04 '06 '08 '10 '12 '14 Source: Standard & Poor’s, University of Michigan, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Peak is defined as the highest index value before a series of lower lows, while a trough is defined as the lowest index value before a series of higher highs. Subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns are price returns only, which excludes dividends. Impact on consumer sentiment is based on a multivariate monthly regression between 1/31/2000 – 12/31/2014. Data are as of March 31, 2015. 29 Source: Standard & Poor’s, University of Michigan, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Peak is defined as the highest index value before a series of lower lows, while a trough is defined as the lowest index value before a series of higher highs. Subsequent 12-month S&P 500 returns are price returns only, which excludes dividends. Impact on consumer sentiment is based on a multivariate monthly regression between 1/31/2000–12/31/2014. Data as of March 31, 2015. Wage growth has been anemic, but workers are on the job for longer hours—a hopeful sign. EXHIBIT 2: HOURS WORKED FOR NON-FARM BUSINESS EMPLOYEES Percent change from previous quarter at annual rate 8 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 ’94’95 ’96 ’97 ’98’99’00 ’01 ’02 ’03’04’05’06’07’08’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14 Source: BLS, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; data as of March 19, 2015. 4 P UB L IC EY E: S P R IN G- S UM M ER 2 015 The recent plunge in gas prices has delivered a major boon to consumers, with the greatest benefit felt by those who need it most. The percentage of household income spent on gas and motor oil is six times greater for households in the lowest quintile of pre-tax income than it is for households in the highest quintile. Spending on gas for the average family should decline $750 a year, the equivalent of a mini-tax cut. Given that imbalances in global oil markets help determine the price of gas at the pump—the picture is complicated, but the essential theme is excess supply and less-than-robust demand—low gas prices may linger for a while. Nov. 2008 Aug. 2011 +15.4% +22.3% Sentiment Cycle Low and subsequent 12-month S&P 500 Index return '84 Lower gas prices benefit those who need it most A rebound in household net worth Along with a falling unemployment rate and cheap gasoline prices, a rebound in household net worth reaffirms the swelling optimism of the American consumer. At the end of 2014, household net worth totaled $82.9 trillion, well above the pre-crisis high of $67.8 trillion in the second quarter of 2007. Those gains testify to a six-year bull market in U.S. equities as well as rising house prices. On the housing front, consumers are encouraged by recent data: Moderating home prices, coupled with very low mortgage rates, are making housing more affordable. At the end of 2014, average mortgage payments accounted for 14.1% of household income; since 1975, that percentage has averaged 20.3%. Investment implications How should we assess the investment implications of a resurgent U.S. consumer? Given that consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of GDP, we expect decent economic growth this year, a 2.5% increase in GDP, despite the higher dollar’s drag on exports. Positive economic momentum should keep the Federal Reserve on track to raise the fed funds rate sometime this year. At its mid-March meeting, the Fed modified its forward rate guidance to reflect the improved state of the economy, removing the assurance that it would remain “patient” in raising short-term rates. Emphasizing that its decisions will be data-dependent, the Fed signaled that a potential rate hike will be evaluated on a meeting-by-meeting basis. Past experience tells us that stocks may react negatively over the short-term period leading up to a rate increase. Over the longer term, equities tend to rebound because earnings growth remains solid despite incrementally higher rates. Fixed income investing can be trickier. Fed rate hikes will likely push short-term U.S. bond yields higher. Significant global demand should keep longer-dated bond yields more anchored, although a stronger U.S. economy and higher inflation expectations can eventually put upward pressure on longer-dated yields as well. An improving economy bodes well for corporate bond issuers, as it should keep default rates in check. Finally, bond investors have many more options to invest outside their home markets: Non-U.S. bonds represent 60% of the total global bonds outstanding. When the Fed does move to normalize rates, a balanced bond portfolio, diversified across regions, strategies and sectors and managed with careful attention to security selection and risk control, can be especially effective. REAL ESTATE SECTOR REVIEW 200 FIFTH AVENUE, NEW YORK, NY Market Overview – Office sector 2015 U.S. Commercial Real Estate Outlook HIGH QUALITY CORE PROPERTIES ON A ROLL? Commercial property prices have rebounded strongly since the start of the economic recovery. Indeed, appreciation has been vigorous enough that some investors worry that current valuation levels are unsustainable. We now see high-quality unleveraged core properties trading at internal rates of return (IRRs) at just 6%, based on our current underwriting. This is a low and, for some investors, a psychological barrier that makes real estate feel more like bonds than equities. However, these IRRs are still at a historically wide spread to 10-year U.S. Treasuries, and our real estate return expectations remain closer to our firm’s long-term capital markets assumptions for equities than for bonds. The inevitable back-up in interest rates will most likely come from good economic news, so we target properties that will benefit from the resulting improved tenant demand as well as muted supply. The office market recovery nationwide had been slowed by weak hiring in finance and law but some stability in investment banking payrolls—thanks partly to M&A activity—and continued growth of asset management payrolls have driven top line financial job growth (excluding bank branches) to its fastest pace since 2006. Law firm hiring has remained weak, but an exclusive group of white shoe firms that cluster in high quality central business district (CBD) office buildings have enjoyed business gains from the M&A boom. InfoTech, management consulting, accounting, architectural and other business and technical services are all hiring rapidly now as well. Overall, we think the count of office submarkets falling below equilibrium vacancy will continue to rise—with only moderate development to mute the resulting sharp rent increases. Supply remains delayed even as demand accelerates. Scarce construction financing has been one factor, but so has a lack of pre-lease-sized leasing requirements in most markets. Perhaps more importantly, the highest use of land in many of the nation’s most dynamic urban cores has been residential. Since the start of 2013, more than 25 million square feet of office buildings in structures more than 100,000 square feet have been razed. As a consequence, net additions to stock were still less than 0.5% in 2014. Large tech firms continue to disperse in search of talent—creating dynamism in certain CBD or nearCBD submarkets, offering local amenities that attract the best J.P. MORGAN ASSE T MA N A G E ME N T 5 workers. Seattle, Portland, Los Angeles, Chicago, New York, Denver, and Boston, among others, see dynamism outside their traditional CBDs but still within urban cores. Sterile boxes in suburban office parks or amenity deserts within CBDs face near-term headwinds—especially if they cannot be easily commuted to from urban, infill residential locations. quarter, same store sales growth at Class B malls has remained negative. For Class A malls, same store sales growth has decelerated but is still positive. Consequently, minimally amenitized suburban locations near dynamic CBDs will continue to face headwinds—including some locations around Chicago, New York and even San Francisco. Large boxes in far-flung locations are on the wrong side of virtually every trend we are observing. Grocer/drug-anchored centers with convenience and services-oriented in-line stores are good plays on organic economic growth as long as they are in infill locations. Large outdoor formats continue to work if they have high proportions of small shop space; in areas with high density/income/educational attainment, a broader array of formats will perform well. We remain, as we have over the past decade, least enamored by power centers except, perhaps, within dense urban areas. VALLEY FAIR MALL, SAN JOSE, CA Market Overview – Retail sector We continue to expect Class A malls to deliver the agglomeration economies favoring strong overall mall revenue growth for existing concepts and the best returns for new uses such as high-end restaurants. In theory, Class B malls should be enjoying tailwinds. However, the theory has not been proven. First, lower oil prices are democratizing the consumer recovery because energy costs account for a larger share of the spending by moderate income households. Second, continued low interest rates remain as a nice tailwind to mid-tier retailers struggling with high fixed costs. Finally, labor markets are improving for middle income Americans. Mid-tier in-line stores have continued to close at a rapid pace while luxury brands continue to grow. As we have noted before, marginal clothing retailers are suffering at the hands of fast fashion brands that have developed logistics chains that can update fashions continuously instead of once or twice per year. Fast fashion firms quickly copy luxury couture styles but, ironically, hurt mid-tier shops most by matching their pricing, but with more up-to-date fashion. Through the third 6 P U BL IC EY E: S P R IN G-S UM M ER 2 0 15 PROCTER & GAMBLE DISTRIBUTION CENTER, EDWARDSVILLE, IL Market Overview – Industrial sector The warehouse market’s great recovery has been driven largely by consumers’ costly demand that Internet—purchased goods arrive in just one or two days. Holding excess inventories to guarantee quick delivery, along with other logistics costs, goes a long way toward explaining why Amazon generates thin profits. Low interest rates and cheap gasoline help a little but do not significantly reduce the drag. Meanwhile, UPS and FedEx rejected some last minute Christmas time express deliveries from retailers that exceeded their previously agreedupon limits. This form of rationing was put in place to avoid last year’s late delivery fiasco, and it may moderately reduce growth in warehouse demand. However, at some point a larger share of excess inventory and logistics costs will have to be passed to consumers, who should then be expected to reduce their demand for quick deliveries. In the near term, some economizing in the logistics chain is already incrementally moderating warehouse occupancy growth at the same time supply is rising. Tenant-demand growth for very large boxes (500,000+ square feet) in far-flung locations on cheap land has slowed, making it even more difficult to drive rent growth. Small infill boxes should achieve higher rent growth, especially as they take advantage of the new-urbanist trend and consumer demand for faster Internet delivery. These commercial properties also enjoy locations that are typically more supply constrained, as warehouse use in these places is often not perceived to be the best use of land. Unfortunately, small infill box portfolios do not trade often and are expensive when they do. Market Overview – Residential sector Net operating income growth for apartments has re-accelerated modestly as the housing market recovery delay has raised tenant demand for rentals. This impact is most strongly felt in economically-dynamic Western region markets, but we’ve also seen stability and recovery in rent growth in Northeastern and Midwestern region markets as well. Rents in many tech markets will have to decelerate over the next year as reduced affordability drives tenants to alternatives (rental houses, roommates, etc). As we noted previously, pockets of oversupply have cropped up and starts are accelerating. Since the apartment market is largely priced above replacement cost, we think appreciation should be muted in the long run and that the best risk-adjusted returns for core investors may well be found in development. THE LOUISA, PORTLAND, OR J.P. MORGAN ASSE T MA N A G E ME N T 7 Active allocation views Asset class Opportunity set Fixed income Neutral Max positive Upgrade Downgrade Positive Rationale Equities/Bonds Global economy is still in the early/mid and weak oil prices to boost DM consumption. It remains attractive to take directional bets. Duration Move towards global QE: Weaker international growth vs. U.S. plus broad policy stimulus results in high demand for long-duration risk-less assets. Credit Attractive from a carry perspective, decent fundamentals but vulnerable to bouts of illiquidity once U.S. policy starts to tighten. Commodities Oversupply in some commodities and falling EM demand, but prices have already moved a long way. U.S. U.S. leads global growth, and we have the most confidence in the U.S. outlook for 2015. Flattening curve supports U.S. large caps. Europe ex-UK ECB stimulus having a strong impact. Macro momentum is building and easing monetary conditions point to more ahead. Weak euro should support earnings. UK The UK is Europe’s “emerging market,” given peaking economic cycle, deteriorating external balances and rising political risk pre-election in early 2015. Japan BoJ remains “all in”. Equities are helped by continuing currency depreciation, rising earnings and attractive valuations. Shifts in domestic asset allocation provide a boost to the Nikkei. Pacific ex-Japan Australian equities offer diversification benefits within DM and should benefit from continued domestic monetary easing. Emerging markets EMs are vulnerable to exogenous shocks from falling JPY, rising U.S. rates and commodity prices. Valuations are not low enough to compensate for the risk. U.S. bonds short end U.S. bonds long end Yield curve flattener set to shift from bull to bear flatteners, as Fed approaches rate hikes in latter half of 2015. Euro, core German Bund yields already look very low, but ECB QE should anchor them for an extended period. Euro, periphery Peripheral spreads over Bunds should compress further on the back of ECB bond buying. UK bonds Relative valuations look less attractive. BoE tightening now priced out until later in 2016, while UK Gilts have yet to reflect growing political risks Other DM bonds JGBs unattractive even after the back-up in yield, but still supported by BoJ buying. Australian bonds offer a nice real yield pickup. Investment grade IG valuations are more attractive with low default rates and balance sheet strength. Negative spread correlation to yields offers protection if rates rise. U.S. high yield Attractive carry in a low-rate environment. Default rates should remain very low, but the asset class is vulnerable to pockets of illiquidity. Emerging markets EM debt is vulnerable to higher USD and lower oil price despite pockets of macro stimulus and reasonable sovereign debt dynamics. USD Growth and interest rate differentials in favour, but USD looking increasingly overvalued, suggesting the “easy money” has been made. EUR ECB QE has led to another leg down in the euro. The euro now looks undervalued but weakness is likely to continue for some time. GBP The pound is hurt by weak trends, the worst current account deficit in the G-10, and high political risks not fully reflected in valuations or positioning. JPY QQE is still pushing the JPY weaker. It has already fallen a long way and is undervalued, but investors shouldn’t fight the longer-run downtrend. FX Regional preferences by asset class Equities Main asset classes D Negative Max negative KEY: Long-dated bonds more attractive than they appear, and also offer portfolio diversification benefits. Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management GIM Solutions-GMAG, assessments are made using data and information up to April 16, 2015. For illustration purposes only. Underlying economic views-in brief: Economic growth in developed markets is expected to continue, with the U.S. remaining the growth leader while Europe and Japan narrow the growth gap, reliant on continued aggressive monetary stimulus. Meanwhile, growth in many emerging market (EM) economies is likely to remain challenged by rising U.S. interest rates, a stronger U.S. dollar and low commodity prices. 8 P UB L IC EY E: S P R IN G-S UM M ER 2 0 15 THE J.P. 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MORGAN ASSE T MA N A G E ME N T 9 FOR INSTITUTIONAL USE ONLY | NOT FOR PUBLIC DISTRIBUTION FOR PUBLIC FUND SOLUTIONS, PLEASE CONTACT Come visit us at these 2015 Industry Conferences May June July August September October November NCPERS SACRS NASP MACRS FPPTA MAPERS NASRA TEXPERS LAPERS NCTR NCPERS FPPTA SACRS 2015 Annual Conference & Exhibition Spring Conference Annual Conference Spring Conference Annual Conference (MO) Annual Conference Annual Conference Summer Educational Forum Annual Seminar Annual Conference Public Safety Conference Trustee School Fall Conference We welcome your feedback. Your suggestions for future topics and ideas on how to enhance the newsletter are most welcome. Please e-mail us at [email protected]. Bob Parise, Co-Head Americas Defined Benefit Business Tel: 312-732-7351 [email protected] Chris Hawkins, Client Advisor Tel: 415-315-5249 christopher.a.hawkins@ jpmorgan.com Joel Damon, Client Advisor Tel: 415-315-5246 [email protected] Mike Smith, Client Advisor Tel: 214-965-3350 [email protected] John Ide, Client Advisor Tel: 312-732-6349 [email protected] Greg Pittenger, Client Advisor Tel: 919-747-9075 [email protected] Jim Sakelaris, Client Advisor Tel: 312-732-6331 [email protected] Tess Shih, Client Advisor Tel: 415-315-5008 [email protected] Jeff Fox, Client Advisor Tel: 561-615-1153 [email protected] This material is intended to report solely on the investment strategies and opportunities identified by J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Opinions and estimates constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument. J.P. Morgan Asset Management and/or its affiliates and employees may hold a position or act as market maker in the financial instruments of any issuer discussed herein or act as underwriter, placement agent, advisor or lender to such issuer. The investments and strategies discussed herein may not be suitable for all investors. The material is not intended to provide, and should not be relied on for, accounting, legal or tax advice, or investment recommendations. Changes in rates of exchange may have an adverse effect on the value, price or income of investments. International investing involves a greater degree of risk and increased volatility. Changes in currency exchange rates and di erences in accounting and taxation policies outside the U.S. can raise or lower returns. Also, some overseas markets may not be as politically and economically stable as the United States and other nations. The Fund’s investments in emerging markets could lead to more volatility in the value of the Fund. As mentioned above, the normal risks of investing in foreign countries are heightened when investing in emerging markets. In addition, the small size of securities markets and the low trading volume may lead to a lack of liquidity, which leads to increased volatility. Also, emerging markets may not provide adequate legal protection for private or foreign investment or private property. The opinions expressed in this report are those held by the authors at the time of going to print. The views expressed herein are not to be taken as advice or recommendations to sell or buy shares. Our consensus estimates may di er from other publicly available sources due to our selection criteria. 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