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Tourism Intelligence International
ISSN 1023-0122
Tourism Industry Intelligence
Strategic Information for Decision-Makers
Prospects for the British Market 2009
January 2009
UK economy in
crisis?
The UK economy is currently in an official recession. In the last quarter of
2008, GDP for the UK fell 0.5% and is also forecast to fall in the first quarter
of 2009. Overall this year, the UK economy is predicted to stay in recession.
This does not seem to augur well for travel and tourism from this market.
UK is most
dynamic travel
market in Europe
However, the UK is Europe's second largest travel and tourism market after
Germany. And it has proven to be a much more dynamic market over the
past ten years than its continental European counterpart (Germany). Come
rain or come shine, regardless of the unemployment level, inflation, interest
rates or declines in disposable income, the British seem determined to go on
holiday.
No growth in ‘08
In the 12-month period to November 2008, the number of visits abroad by
UK residents, remained broadly the same when compared with the 12
months to November 2007, at 69.2 million.
Regional growth
Visits by UK residents to Europe decreased by 1 per cent at 54.8 million.
North America remained broadly the same at 4.6 million. And other parts of
the world increased by 1 per cent to 9.8 million.
Top
destinations
Of all visits abroad by UK residents in 2007, 36 per
cent were to either Spain or France. Visits to France
bucked the recent downward trend with a 3.2 per cent
increase to 11.2 million, while those to Spain fell by
3.9 per cent (to 13.9 million).
£36.7 billion
spent in 2008
For the twelve month period ending November 2008,
expenditure by UK residents traveling abroad increased by
4.7% from £35 billion to £36.7 billion. However,
What’s Inside:• Market &
Consumer Trends
• Cruise News
expenditure is expected to slow down because of the
current economic situation.
• Eco Monitor
• Focus: Love is
Recession-Proof –
Wedding and
Honeymoon Travel
Brits are
fervent online
travellers
The British are also among the most enthusiastic
online travellers, since 50% of all outbound trips (or,
at least part of their trips) are now booked through the
internet - nearly double the 27% German share,
according to IPK.
Future
Outlook
While the economy is contracting, the British will continue
to travel albeit at a slower pace and with a few minor
changes in their overall travel plans. Britons, like
Americans, will trade DOWN but not OUT – short stays,
postponed travel, bargain hunting, travel closer to home
and fewer travel abroad can be expected in the short term.
• Editorial
• Technology Update
• Hotel Watch
• Destination Watch
Source: Tourism Intelligence International Analysis, 2009
Tourism Industry Intelligence Vol. 16, No. 1, 2009
© Tourism Intelligence International
Tourism Intelligence International
www.tourism-intelligence.com
Market & Consumer Trends
The potential of Wild
life tourism
The global market size of wildlife tourism is estimated as being 12
million trips each year. Africa accounts for around one half of all these
trips, with South Africa, Kenya, Tanzania and Botswana being the top
destinations. Some destinations rely heavily on wildlife tourism, but
could survive without it (wildlife tourism contributes roughly $500
million to the Kenyan economy, or 14% of GDP). On the other hand,
places such as the Galapagos islands rely almost exclusively on
wildlife tourists (wildlife tourism contributes £60 million to the local
economy).
London using
economic crisis to
its advantage
Special rates with British Airways and Radisson Edwardian form part
of a campaign designed to lure tourists from the US and Canada to
London. The Visit London advertising campaign is running in key
cities including New York, Chicago, Miami, Los Angeles, and San
Francisco together with Vancouver and Toronto in Canada. It came as
the pound fell below the $1.40 mark against the US dollar for the first
time since 2001. The promotion includes special flight offers and hotel
rates designed to make the capital a more affordable holiday
destination.
Cruise News
Cruise industry
thrives as the
economy dives
This year 13.5 million people will take a cruise worldwide, an increase
of 2.3% over 2008, US cruise industry organisation Cruise Lines
International Association estimates. The percentage growth represents
a slowdown over the increase between 2007 and 2008. An estimated
13.2 million travellers cruised last year, up from 12.56 million in 2007,
including around 1.5 million from the UK. North Americans
accounted for 10.15 million passengers in 2007 while the number of
internationally sourced passengers is growing dramatically year over
year.
Carnival reports
profit amidst gloom
For its fourth quarter ending November 30, 2008, Carnival Corporation
reported net income of US$371 million up 3.6% from the same quarter
in 2007. Revenues for the quarter totalled US$3.3 billion. The
company reported net income for the full year ended November 30,
2008 of $2.3 billion. Revenues for the full year 2008 increased to $14.6
billion from $13.0 billion for the prior year.
Eco Monitor
You cannot have
your whale and
eat it
“You cannot have your whale and eat it.” This was the clear message to
the Iceland Tourism Industry from Tourism Intelligence International’s
Dr. Poon at a recent presentation in Iceland to mark the 10th Anniversary
of their Tourism Industry Association. The city and island of “pure
energy” with incredible natural attractions, has been torn between
whaling and whale-watching. Whale-watching is promoted as a vital
tourist attraction and at the same time, the country is hell-bent on
whaling or at least having the “freedom” to whale. With a real financial
crisis on hand and a vibrant and growing tourism industry, Iceland now
has to make some hard choices. Stop whaling!
Tourism Industry Intelligence Vol. 16, No. 1, 2009
Page 2
© Tourism Intelligence International
Tourism Intelligence International
www.tourism-intelligence.com
Focus: Love is Recession-Proof – Wedding and Honeymoon Travel
An overview of
Weddings and
Honeymoons
The wedding and honeymoon tourism market refers to international trips that
are taken by tourists to either get married or celebrate their wedding. Today's
couples are finding new ways to celebrate their union, creating honeymoon
trends that are being felt throughout the industry.
A US$13.7 billion
market
Whilst global data on the industry does not exist, the US honeymoon market is
reported as being worth an estimated US$13.7 billion in 2007. UK citizens took
45,000 weddings taken abroad in 2005, and whilst a survey of UK couples
showed that the majority prefer a domestic wedding, nearly all stated that they
wanted to honeymoon abroad. On average, UK consumers spend $12,000 on a
wedding abroad, and $6,000 on a honeymoon. Overall, the global market size
for weddings and honeymoons is estimated at being between 3 and 6 million
trips per annum, according to TheKnot.com.
A dynamic and
changing sector
While the traditional vows endure, the ways to celebrate a marriage have
changed right along with the travel industry. Today's honeymooner may be
looking for value, adventure, or variety and searching for a getaway that's as
exotic as a stay in a private European castle or nearby as a local bed-andbreakfast inn.
Honeymooners –
a major force in
the tourism
industry
One constant is that couples are willing to spend money on a honeymoon – an
average of $1,402 per couple compared to $421 spent annually on regular trips
according to the Travel Industry Association of America. Young couples, age
18 to 24 years, spend the most on honeymoons, averaging $1,873. And as many
as one-third of all honeymooners spend over $2,500 for that once-in-a-lifetime
trip. Multiplied by the 2.4 million newlywed couples the U.S. Census records
annually, and you have a major force in the tourism industry.
Gay and lesbian
honeymoons?
The gay/lesbian market has significant potential. Generally they have above
average annual income and have a disposition to travel that makes them a
particularly strong demographic group for honeymoons.
Main source
markets
The main source markets are those most predisposed to marrying abroad, and
have sufficient wealth to holiday abroad after a domestic wedding. Typically
these are, the US, the UK, Germany, Italy, France and Scandinavia.
Top destinations
Destinations that have marketed and promoted themselves strongly as wedding
and honeymoon destinations include: Hawaii, the Caribbean, Mexico, Sri
Lanka, Maldives, Mauritius, Cyprus and Italy.
Growth is
expected to be
good
Growth of this niche segment in the next five years is expected to be good.
Second marriages, and those marrying later in life (the 35-45 age group), will
generate demand for weddings and honeymoon tourism. The number of
remarriages is increasing, and is set to continue. Hence the number of second
honeymoons will also increase.
Future outlook
Overall, it is expected that this market will increase by 75% over the period to
2012 (around 12% per annum), compared to 10% per annum growth over the
period 2002-2007.
Source: Caribbean Wedding Association, 2009
Tourism Industry Intelligence Vol. 16, No. 1, 2009
Page 3
© Tourism Intelligence International
Tourism Intelligence International
www.tourism-intelligence.com
Editorial
Recession or not, the travel and tourism sector will continue to be resilient. While some segments are
clearly experiencing sluggishness and even decline in travel and tourism growth, there are clearly others
that will prove to be buoyant. The UK and the wedding and honeymoon markets are classic examples of
markets that will be resilient. Travel and tourism suppliers should take note and target these markets
during this period of hardship. Moreover, targeting other non-traditional sources such as China, Russia
India and Brazil can inject extra life into your business. And just as weddings bring a sense of new hope
to society, they also bring new hope to the travel and tourism industry at this time of hopelessness.
Technology Update
Blogs are big with
the Brits
A survey conducted as part of the British Travel Awards 2008 reveals
that travel blogs (web logs) are very important to travellers. Of the
nearly 13,000 respondents close to 75% said that have visited travelrelated blog sites to read customer feedback and comments about
particular holidays and destinations.
Trends to Watch
Stagnation for 2009
This year will be one of “stagnation at best” a new report warns. The
travel industry can expect to contract by one to two per cent in 2009,
and that in all likelihood the downturn will continue before things
improve. Signals for 2010 are also not encouraging in the wake of the
global financial and economic crisis. The findings come from
consultants IPK International for the World Travel Trends Report.
Tourism and
debauchery go
hand in hand
There is a new trend of travel called “debaucherism” tourism. The idea
is to follow in the footsteps of tabloid celebrities and travel to
experience wild parties. It is most popular among Americans aged 25-34
who are waiting longer before marrying. As earners of 17% of the US
gross income, they have more time to enjoy their last fling at youth
before settling down. One of the main beneficiaries has been allinclusive resorts in the Caribbean such as Hedonism II & III and adult
island getaways such as SinSation Adult Resort and Spa. Travel and
tourism suppliers should capitalise on this, offering the most indulgent
activities such as day parties and strip club tours.
Destination Watch
Halal Tourism untapped potential
for the Middle East
Despite vastly differing requirements, Middle East tourism is missing
out by targeting Muslims and non-Muslims in exactly the same way.
The number of inbound tourists to the Middle East will grow by 66%
by 2011, according to the World Travel Market Global Trend Reports
2007. And tourism revenue in the Middle East is expected to grow by
108% to almost $51 billion by 2011. The Vatican set up its own budget
airline to transport pilgrims to holy sites in 2007 and there is potential
for the development of a Halal airline that could provide Halal food,
calls for prayer, Korans in seat pockets and separate sections for male
and female passengers.
Tourism Industry Intelligence is edited by travel and tourism industry analyst Dr. Auliana Poon, and published monthly by Tourism Intelligence International
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