Download Sorensen-Chapter 14

Figure 14.1: The evolution of real GDP in some Western
countries
Source: See Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/1
Figure 14.1: The evolution of real GDP in some Western
countries
Source: See Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/2
Figure 14.1: The evolution of real GDP in some Western
countries
Source: See Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/3
Figure 14.2: Unemployment and political extremism in
Germany, 1924–1933
Sources: Unemployment rate from B.R. Mitchell, International Historical Statistics, Europe 1750–1988, Macmillan,
New York, 1993. Nazi vote share from Richard F. Hamilton, Who Voted for Hitler?, Princeton University Press, 1982.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/4
Table 14.1: US business cycle expansions and
contractions
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/5
Table 14.1: US business cycle expansions and
contractions
1. The duration of the full business cycle is measured from trough to trough.
2. December 1854 to December 1914.
3. March 1919 to June 1938.
4. October 1945 to November 2001.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Source: National Bureau of Economic Research.
Slide 1/6
Figure 14.3: Real GDP and its underlying trend
Source: See Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/7
Figure 14.3: Real GDP and its underlying trend
Source: See Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/8
Figure 14.3: Real GDP and its underlying trend
Source: See Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/9
Figure 14.4a: Cycles in real GDP in the United Kingdom,
United States and Denmark
Source: Own calculations, based on the sources underlying Table 14.2.
Source: Own calculations, based on the sources underlying Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/10
Figure 14.4a: Cycles in real GDP in the United Kingdom,
United States and Denmark
Source: Own calculations, based on the sources underlying Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/11
Figure 14.4a: Cycles in real GDP in the United Kingdom,
United States and Denmark
Source: Own calculations, based on the sources underlying Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/12
Figure 14.4b: Cycles in real GDP in Finland, Belgium and
the Netherlands
Source: Own calculations, based on the sources underlying Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/13
Figure 14.4b: Cycles in real GDP in Finland, Belgium and
the Netherlands
Source: Own calculations, based on the sources underlying Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/14
Figure 14.4b: Cycles in real GDP in Finland, Belgium and
the Netherlands
Source: Own calculations, based on the sources underlying Table 14.2.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/15
Table 14.2a: Macroeconomic volatility in the United
Kingdom and the United States
1 Standard deviation relative to standard deviation of GDP.
2 Includes both private and public investment.
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1956Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point
observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: UK Office for National Statistics, Ecowin and Datastream.
Slide 1/16
Table 14.2a: Macroeconomic volatility in the United
Kingdom and the United States
1 Standard deviation relative to standard deviation of GDP.
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1947Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point
observations excluded.
Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/17
Table 14.2b: Macroeconomic volatility in Denmark and
Finland
1 Standard deviation relative to standard deviation of GDP.
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1971Q1 to 2003Q2. 24 end-point observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: Danmarks Nationalbank and Ecowin.
Slide 1/18
Table 14.2b: Macroeconomic volatility in Denmark and
Finland
Sources: Statistics Finland and Bank of Finland.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/19
Table 14.2c: Macroeconomic volatility in Belgium and
the Netherlands
1 Standard deviation relative to standard deviation of GDP.
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point
observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: Statistics Netherlands, De Nederlandse Bank and Ecowin.
Slide 1/20
Table 14.2c: Macroeconomic volatility in Belgium and
the Netherlands
1 Standard deviation relative to standard deviation of GDP.
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point
observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: Belgostat, Banque Nationale de Belgique and Ecowin.
Slide 1/21
Table 14.3a: Macroeconomic correlations, leads and
lags in the United Kingdom and the United States
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1947Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point observations excluded
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
.
Sources: See Table 14.2.
Slide 1/22
Table 14.3a: Macroeconomic correlations, leads and
lags in the United Kingdom and the United States
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1947Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: See Table 14.2
.
Slide 1/23
Table 14.3b: Macroeconomic correlations, leads and
lags in Denmark and Finland
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1971Q1 to 2003Q2. 24 end-point observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: See Table 14.2.
Slide 1/24
Table 14.3b: Macroeconomic correlations, leads and
lags in Denmark and Finland
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1974Q1 to 2003Q1. 24 end-point observations excluded
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
.
Sources: See Table 14.2
.
Slide 1/25
Table 14.4c: Macroeconomic persistence in Belgium
and the Netherlands
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: See Table 14.2.
Slide 1/26
Table 14.4c: Macroeconomic persistence in Belgium
and the Netherlands
Note: Based on quarterly data from 1980Q1 to 2003Q4. 24 end-point observations excluded.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Sources: See Table 14.2.
Slide 1/27
Figure 14.5: The US output gap and its components
estimated by the production function method
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook Database.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/28
Figure 14.5: The US output gap and its components
estimated by the production function method
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook Database.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/29
Figure 14.6: Alternative measures of the US output gap:
the simple HP filter versus the production function method
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook Database.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/30
Figure 14.7: The US output gap estimated by the HP filter:
the importance of the choice of λ
Source: OECD, Economic Outlook Database.
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/31
Figure 14.8: Aggregate supply and aggregate demand
©The McGraw-Hill Companies, 2005
Slide 1/32