Download EXECUTIVE SUPPORT SYSTEMS (ESS)

EXECUTIVE
SUPPORT SYSTEMS (ESS)
STRATEGIC INFORMATION SYSTEM
DESIGNED FOR UNSTRUCTURED
DECISION MAKING THROUGH
ADVANCED GRAPHICS AND
COMMUNICATIONS
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EXECUTIVE
SUPPORT SYSTEMS
• DRILL DOWN: ability to move from summary to
lower levels of detail
• Designed for specific needs of CEO
• Extensive support staff
• Executive has 24 hour per day ability to
examine, control progress throughout
organization
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EXECUTIVE
SUPPORT SYSTEMS
BENEFITS:
• FLEXIBILITY
• ABILITY TO ANALYZE, COMPARE,
HIGHLIGHT TRENDS
• GRAPHICS HELP EXPLORE SITUATION
• MONITOR PERFORMANCE
• TIMELINESS, AVAILABILITY OF DATA
ALLOWS PROMPT ACTION
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EXECUTIVE
SUPPORT SYSTEMS
USES IN A DIGITAL FIRM:
• BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE: Info on
salespeople, distributors, retailers
• MONITORING BUSINESS PERFORMANCE:
Balanced scorecard shows perspectives of
customers, internal processes, learning, growth
• ENTERPRISE WIDE REPORTING & ANALYSIS
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Objectives:
• Business uses of Artificial Intelligence
– neural networks
– Genetic algorithms
– intelligence agents
• Expert systems
fuzzy logic
virtual reality
Case 2 Artificial Intelligence
The Dawn of the Digital Brain
• Numenta will translate the way the brain
works into an algorithm that can run on
a new type of computer
• The human brain does not work like a
computer
• Intelligence, according to Hawkins, is
pattern recognition
Case Study Questions
1. What is the business value of AI technologies in
business today? What value might exist if Jeff
Hawkins can build a machine to think like humans?
2. Why has artificial intelligence become so important to
business?
3. Why do you think banks & other financial institutions
are leading users of AI technologies? What are the
benefits & limitations of this technology?
Intelligent Computers
Remember Hal in the film 2001?
Do computers think?
Are they intelligent?
Is Big Blue more intelligent than Gary
Kasparov?
• The Turing Machine!
•
•
•
•
Intelligent Behavior
Domains of Artificial Intelligence
Artificial
Intelligence
Cognitive
Science
Applications
•Expert Systems
•Learning Systems
•Fuzzy Logic
•Genetic Algorithms
•Neural Networks
•Intelligent Agents
Robotics
Applications
•Visual Perception
•Tactility
•Dexterity
•Locomotion
•Navigation
Natural
Interface
Applications
•Natural Languages
•Speech Recognition
•Multisensory Interfaces
•Virtual Reality
Natural Interfaces
• Based in linguistics, psychology, computer science, etc.
• Includes natural language & speech recognition
• Development of multisensory devices that use a variety
of body movements to operate computers
• Virtual reality
– Using multisensory human-computer interfaces that
enable human users to experience computersimulated objects, spaces & “worlds” as if they
actually exist
Commercial Applications of AI
Expert Systems
• Expert System
– A knowledge-based information system
(KBIS) that uses its knowledge about a
specific, complex application to act as an
expert consultant to end users
• KBIS
– A system that adds a knowledge base to the
other components on an IS
Expert Systems
• Developing expert systems
• Expert system shell
• Knowledge engineering
Components of Expert Systems
The Expert System
Expert
Advice
User
User
Interface
Programs
Inference
Engine
Program
Knowledge
Base
Workstation
Expert System Development
Knowledge
Acquisition
Program
Knowledge
Engineering
Workstation
Expert and/or
Knowledge Engineer
Development Tool
• Expert System Shell
– Software package consisting of an
expert system without its knowledge
base
– Has inference engine and user
interface programs
Methods of Knowledge Representation
• Case-Based – knowledge organized in
form of cases
– Cases: examples of past performance,
occurrences and experiences
• Frame-Based – knowledge organized in
a hierarchy or network of frames
– Frames: entities consisting of a complex
package of data values
Methods of Knowledge Representation
• Object-Based – knowledge organized in
network of objects
– Objects: data elements and the methods or
processes that act on those data
• Rule-Based – knowledge represented in
rules and statements of fact
– Rules: statements that typically take the
form of a premise & a conclusion
– Such as, If (condition) then (conclusion)
Expert System Benefits
• Faster and more consistent than an
expert
• Can have the knowledge of several
experts
• Does not get tired or distracted by
overwork or stress
• Helps preserve and reproduce the
knowledge of experts
Expert System Limitations
•
•
•
•
•
Limited focus (DOMAIN)
Inability to learn
Maintenance problems
Developmental costs
Can only solve specific types of problems
in a limited domain of knowledge
Expert Systems
Expert Systems
IBM Network Management
Neural Networks
• Computing systems modeled after the
brain’s mesh-like network of
interconnected processing elements,
called neurons
• Interconnected processors operate in
parallel and interact with each other
• Allows network to learn from data it
processes
Neural Networks
• Used to solve problems that people can’t
… ???
• What happens?
– Enormous number of cases (data) with
representative I/O
– Statistical inferencing to identify patterns
– Use/reuse the pattern to predict future
outcomes
Neural Network Examples
• BANK of AMERICA
– NN evaluates commercial loan applications
• AMERICAN EXPRESS:
– NN reads handwriting on credit card slips
• STATE OF WYOMING:
– NN reads hand-printed numbers on tax forms
• ARCO AND TEXACO:
– NN helps pinpoint oil and gas deposits
• SPIEGEL
– NN prunes mailing list
• DEERE & COMPANY
– NN manages pension fund
Fuzzy Logic Systems
• Resembles human reasoning
allowing approximations &
inferences, use of ambiguous data
• Fuzzy data
• Fuzzy rules
• Data is deliberately imprecise
• Fuzzy logic can process this
imprecise data
Fuzzy Logic Systems
Fuzzy Logic Rules
Risk should be acceptable
If debt-equity is very high
then risk is positively increased
If income is increasing
then risk is somewhat decreased
If cash reserves are low to very low
then risk is very increased
If PE ratio is good
Then risk is generally decreased
Fuzzy Logic SQL Query
Select companies
from financials
where revenues are very large
and pe_ratio is acceptable
and profits are high to very high
and (income/employee_tot) is reasonable
Genetic Algorithms
• Uses Darwinian, randomizing &
other mathematical functions
• Stimulates evolutionary process to
yield better problem solutions
• Mutations
• Crossovers
• Selections
GE’s Engeneous
• Page 304 (351)
• Design of a Boeing 777 engine
• Used genetic algorithm application
• Used to develop more efficient fan
blades
• Estimated billions of years to evaluate
the astronomical number of
performance & cost combinations
• Engenious expert system offered
optimal solution in a week
Virtual Reality (VR)
• Computer-based systems to create a realistic
environment, relying on multi-sensory I/O
– a tracking headset with video goggles and stereo
earphones,
– a data glove or jumpsuit with fiber-optic sensors that
track your body movements &
– a walker that monitors the movement of your feet
• 3D video games
• Valuable for training, education, remote servicing,
product design
Virtual Reality (VR)
Intelligent Agents
• Use of software surrogates
• Software robots “bots”
• Many types of intelligent
agents…
Intelligent Agents
Interface
Tutors
Presentation
Agents
Search
Agents
User
Interface
Agents
Information
Management
Agents
Information
Brokers
Network
Navigation
Agents
RolePlaying
Agents
Commercial
Information
Services
Information
Filters
User Interface Agents
• Interface Tutors – observe user computer operations,
correct user mistakes & provide hints & advice on
efficient software use
• Presentation – show information in a variety of forms &
media based on user preferences
• Network Navigation – discover paths to information &
provide ways to view information based on user
preferences
• Role-Playing – play what-if games & other roles to help
users understand information & make better decisions
Intelligent Agents
Dow Jones: Intelligent Web Agents
• Page 309 (355)
• Use to compare prices or other
characteristics
• 600,000 customers search stories
from 6,000 publications
• Dow uses intelligent agents and other
AI technologies to manage the
process
• Results on web page or e-mailed to
user