Download Japan`s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons

MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES (SPECIAL EDITION)/FEBRUARY 2001
The Asset Price Bubble
and Monetary Policy:
Japan’s Experience
in the Late 1980s
and the Lessons
Background Paper
by Kunio Okina, Masaaki Shirakawa,
and Shigenori Shiratsuka
Since the latter half of the 1980s, Japan’s economy has experienced
the emergence, expansion, and bursting of a bubble economy,
characterized by a rapid rise in asset prices, the overheating of
economic activity, and the expansion of money supply and credit.
This paper examines the mechanism by which the bubble economy
was generated and summarizes lessons a central bank should draw
from the experience in order to prevent it from happening again.
Specifically, by focusing on the intensified bullish expectations
that played an important role behind the large fluctuations in asset
prices and the economy, the process of the emergence, expansion, and
bursting of the bubble is examined in relation to the monetary policy
at the time. Based on this analysis, the paper discusses a framework
for monetary policy conducive to achieving both price stability and
financial system stability.
Key words: Asset prices; Bubble; Intensified bullish expectations;
Monetary policy; Sustained price stability; Financial
stability; Forward-looking monetary policy
Kunio Okina: Bank of Japan (E-mail: [email protected])
Masaaki Shirakawa: Bank of Japan (E-mail: [email protected])
Shigenori Shiratsuka: Bank of Japan (E-mail: [email protected])
This paper is a revised version of preliminary draft presented at the workshop under the
same title sponsored by the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies at the Bank of
Japan on January 25, 2000. The authors are grateful to Dr. Masaru Yoshitomi, Professor
Shinichi Kitasaka, and other participants at the workshop for their helpful comments and
discussions; to Messrs. Yasuhiro Maehara, Michio Kitahara, Toyoichiro Shirota, and Yuji
Yokobori, and Ms. Sachiko Suematsu for their assistance. The views expressed in the
paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of the Bank of Japan.
395
I. Introduction
Japan’s economy has experienced substantial fluctuations since the latter half of the
1980s. From the latter half of the 1980s to the early 1990s when the bubble emerged
and expanded, we saw a rapid and large surge in asset prices, a sizable increase in
money supply and credit, and the expansion of economic activity for a protracted
period. During the subsequent period of the bursting of the bubble from the early
1990s, Japan experienced a plummet in asset prices, the accumulation of huge
nonperforming assets and resulting difficulties faced by financial institutions, and a
prolonged recession.
There have been various discussions and analyses among central bankers,
academia, and economists both at home and abroad with respect to the mechanism
of how the bubble economy was generated, although up to now a consensus is
far from being reached.1 Similarly, discussions are under way as to how monetary
policy should be conducted when asset prices rapidly rise. In fact, the evaluation of
monetary policy depends very much on financial and economic conditions under
which it is conducted. For example, from the latter half of 1987 when asset prices
rapidly rose and economic expansion became increasingly certain, the Bank of Japan
(BOJ) explored the possibility of monetary tightening in view of concern over
inflation and excessive monetary easing, but could not present an argument that was
regarded as sufficiently convincing for tightening. In contrast, immediately after the
bursting of the bubble, there were periods when monetary tightening was generally
praised as an appropriate measure. As the recession became protracted, the BOJ was
exposed to severe criticism that prolonged monetary easing since the latter half of the
1980s had brought about the bubble economy, which led to the subsequent deep
recession and nonperforming-asset problem.
Recalling the situation when the bubble emerged, the BOJ expressed concern, at a
relatively early stage, over inflationary pressure and the adverse effects of excessive
monetary easing. Such concerns were also shared by not a few economists at that
time. However, in view of stable prices indicated by various related indices, those
who were concerned with inflationary pressure had difficulty in reconciling stable
price indices with concern over future inflation. Furthermore, there did not exist a
commonly shared understanding as to what exactly are problems caused by the
increase in asset prices.
This paper intends to draw lessons based on the experience of monetary policy
during the bubble period rather than a simple afterthought. In view of such an
intention, this paper attempts to describe as accurately and as concretely as possible
the economic, financial, and social background under which monetary policy was
being conducted. Needless to say, the lessons derived from the experience during the
bubble period could differ depending on the economic theories that are being
applied and also on how the general public perceived the central bank. Some may
find this paper overstates the importance of monetary policy and others find it
1. Literature that has dealt with Japan’s bubble period includes Ohta (1991), Noguchi (1992), Ueda (1992), Iwata
(1993), Ministry of Finance (1993), Suzuki (1993), Takao (1994), Ogata (1996), Cargill, Hutchison, and Ito
(1997), Ogawa and Kitasaka (1998), Yoshitomi (1998), Okumura (1999), and Mieno (2000).
396
MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES (SPECIAL EDITION)/FEBRUARY 2001
The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons
too detached or self-defensive, neither of which intention the authors had in mind.
The main purpose of this paper is to present the authors’ views on the cause of
the bubble since the late 1980s and the lessons for monetary policy as well as to
objectively describe the background behind these views, thereby further enriching
discussion on the bubble.
This paper is structured as follows. Chapter II reviews the development of Japan’s
economy during the bubble period, and Chapter III examines the mechanism behind
the emergence and expansion of the bubble. Chapter IV analyzes how monetary
policy was conducted in the process of the emergence and expansion of the bubble
as well as the influence of prolonged monetary easing on the process. Chapter V
considers the question of why monetary tightening was delayed, and Chapter VI
discusses the lessons learned from the bubble period that the BOJ should be aware of
in conducting monetary policy.
II. Overview of Japan’s Economy during the Bubble Period
A. Definition of the Bubble Economy
While the term “bubble” is used differently among people, based on the experience
of Japan’s economy in the late 1980s, let us characterize the bubble economy in this
paper by three factors: a rapid rise in asset prices, the overheating of economic
activity, and a sizable increase in money supply and credit (see Figure 1 for monetary
and economic conditions after the 1980s).
The definition of the bubble period may vary depending on which one of the
three factors one emphasizes. The rise in asset prices started around 1982 and
accelerated from 1985 to 1986. However, the rise was relatively moderate in the early
stage and two years (1985–86) coincided with the “endaka recession” (a recession
caused by the appreciation of the yen). While few view these years as being part of
the bubble period, many consider 1987 as the beginning of the bubble period for
the following reasons. First, according to the Economic Planning Agency’s (EPA)
reference dates of the business cycle, the economy bottomed out in November 1986
and 1987 was a year of expansion. Second, while the year-on-year growth rate of
money supply (M2+CDs) and credit had been declining somewhat in 1986, albeit at
a high level, it started to accelerate around 1987. As such, 1987 saw an accelerating
rise in money supply and credit, a rapid increase in asset prices, and the economy
entering a recovery cycle. Hence, many naturally regard 1987 as the starting year of the
bubble. However, some might argue that 1987 should not be included in the bubble
period since the recovery of the economy was not clearly recognized in the first half
of the year and there was a worldwide stock market crash in October of the same year.
Views differ as to when the bubble began to burst. Stock prices in terms of the
Nikkei 225 peaked at end-1989,2 while land prices in terms of the Urban Land Price
Index (six major cities, commercial areas) of the Japan Real Estate Institute peaked
2. The Nikkei OTC Index hit a peak on July 9, 1990, increasing almost 60 percent even after the Nikkei 225 peaked
at end-1989 (from ¥2,597 at end-1989 to ¥4,149 on July 9, 1990).
397
Figure 1 Financial and Macroeconomic Conditions
Percent
Yen/U.S. dollar
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
275
250
225
200
175
150
125
100
75
Official discount rate (left scale)
Yen/U.S. dollar rate (right scale)
1982
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Changes from a year earlier, percent
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
Claims on private sector
M2+CD
1982
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
¥ thousands
97
98
99
1990/III = 100
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
120
Nikkei 225 (left scale)
Commercial land price index of cities
(right scale)
80
60
40
20
0
1982
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Percentage points
Changes from a year earlier, percent
8
80
6
60
4
40
2
20
0
0
–2
–20
Real GDP growth (left scale)
Business conditions DI (right scale)
–4
–40
–60
–6
1982
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Changes from a year earlier, percent 4
2
0
–2
Domestic WPI
CPI excluding fresh foods
–4
–6
1982
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Notes: Shaded areas indicate periods of economic recession.
Sources: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly; Economic
Planning Agency, Annual Report on National Accounts; Japan Real Estate
Institute, Urban Land Price Index.
398
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MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES (SPECIAL EDITION)/FEBRUARY 2001
The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons
around 1990. In addition, the year-on-year growth rate of money supply (M2+CDs)
peaked in April and May 1990, and the economy peaked in February 1991 according
to the EPA.
While the exact period of the emergence, expansion, and bursting of the bubble
may differ, in this paper we define the four years from 1987 through 1990 as the
“emergence and expansion of the bubble period” based on the simultaneous rise in
stock and land prices, economic activity, and money supply.3
B. Characteristics of the Bubble Economy
1. Substantial increase in asset prices
The first characteristic of the bubble period was a rapid and substantial rise in asset
prices. In fact, asset prices began increasing in 1983, and it was around 1986 when
the rise began accelerating rapidly.
Among asset prices, what exhibited the most rapid rise initially were stock prices.
The speed of the rise in the Nikkei 225 began accelerating in 1986 and the index hit
a peak of ¥38,915 at end-1989, 3.1 times higher than the level at the time of the
Plaza Agreement in September 1985 (¥12,598). Then, stock prices fell sharply to
¥14,309 in August 1992, more than 60 percent below the peak.4
The rise in land prices followed that in stock prices with a time lag, spreading
from Tokyo to major cities such as Osaka and Nagoya, and then to other cities
(Figure 2). The Urban Land Price Index reached a peak in September 1990, almost
four times higher than the level in September 1985. Land prices have been declining
thereafter and in 1999 were some 20 percent lower than in September 1985, and
some 80 percent lower than the peak in September 1990.
Since the end of World War II Japan has seen a number of substantial rises in land
prices, but the rise during the bubble period was the greatest since the mid-1950s
(when statistics became available) in terms of both the inflation-adjusted rate of
increase and its duration (Figure 3). In terms of fluctuations in asset values, the
combined capital gains on stocks and land were 452 percent of nominal GDP for
the 1986–89 period, which was much higher than the 193 percent recorded for
the 1972–73 period. The capital losses were 159 percent of nominal GDP for the
1990–93 period (Figure 4).5
2. Overheating of economic activity
The second characteristic of the bubble period was the overheating of economic
activity. According to the EPA, the economy hit a bottom in November 1986 and
3. A bubble period can also be defined as a period during which actual asset prices exhibit substantial upward
divergence from an equilibrium price calculated from theoretical models. Such a method was not adopted in this
paper since the equilibrium price critically depends on the assumptions underlying the theoretical model.
4. Stock prices subsequently showed a temporary rebound, but declined further to ¥14,485 in 1995 against the backdrop of the yen’s appreciation. Stock prices recently recorded a bottom of ¥12,879 in October 1998 (67 percent
below the peak).
5. In our calculation, the ratio of each year’s capital gains (losses) to nominal GDP is simply added up. Capital gains
during the bubble period were substantially greater than capital losses following the bursting of the bubble. This is
largely attributable to Japan’s land utilization structure, where agricultural land and forests have been consistently
converted into residential and commercial areas. The average land price in residential and commercial areas is
more than 30 times that of agricultural land and forests, and thus conversion to residential and commercial use
increases Japan’s average land prices.
399
Figure 2 Land Prices by Use and Area
[1] Commercial Land
100
Changes from a year earlier, percent
80
Nationwide
Six major cities
Tokyo
60
40
20
0
–20
–40
1984 85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
[2] Residential Land
100
Changes from a year earlier, percent
80
Nationwide
Six major cities
Tokyo
60
40
20
0
–20
–40
1984 85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
Source: Japan Real Estate Institute, Urban Land Price Index.
Figure 3 Real Land Prices
Changes from a year earlier, percent
70
60
Nominal growth rate
50
Real growth rate
40
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
–30
1955 58 61 64 67 70 73 76 79
82
85
88
91
94
97
Note: Real land prices correspond to the commercial land prices in six major cities
deflated by the GDP deflator.
Sources: Japan Real Estate Institute, Urban Land Price Index; Economic Planning
Agency, Annual Report on National Accounts.
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MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES (SPECIAL EDITION)/FEBRUARY 2001
The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons
Figure 4 Capital Gains and Losses
[1] Land and Stocks
Ratio to nominal GDP, percent
150
(+193%)
(+452%)
100
50
0
–50
(–159%)
–100
1956 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
[2] Land
150
Ratio to nominal GDP, percent
(+367%)
(+156%)
100
50
0
–50
(–107%)
–100
1956 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
[3] Stocks
150
Ratio to nominal GDP, percent
100
50
(+36%)
(+151%)
0
–50
(–110%)
–100
1956 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
Source: Economic Planning Agency, Annual Report on National Accounts.
401
then expanded for four years and three months (51 months) until February 1991,
after which it subsequently slowed down until October 1993. The economic expansion during the bubble period is the second longest after the expansion of the late
1960s (Izanagi Boom),6 and real GDP and industrial production grew at an average
annual rate of 5.5 percent and 7.2 percent, respectively. The main engine behind
such economic expansion was business fixed investment, which continued to be
almost 20 percent of GDP, a level comparable to that during the high economic
growth period of the 1960s (Figure 5). In addition, there was a large increase in housing investment and also in expenditure on consumer durables on the part of the
household sector (Figure 6).
In contrast, during the recession after the bursting of the bubble, the economic
slowdown lasted 32 months (from February 1991 to October 1993), the second
longest slowdown following that after the second oil shock (36 months, from
Figure 5 Fixed Investment and Nominal GDP Ratios
25
Ratio to nominal GDP, percent
20
15
10
Iwado
Boom
5
Izanagi
Boom
Heisei
Boom
0
1957
60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
93
96
93
96
Note: Shaded areas indicate periods of economic recovery.
Source: Economic Planning Agency, Annual Report on National Accounts.
Figure 6 Real Expenditure by Households
50
Changes from a year earlier, percent
40
30
20
10
0
–10
–20
Real durable goods
expenditure
Real residential investment
–30
1957 60
63
66
69
72
75
78
81
84
87
90
Note: Shaded areas indicate periods of economic recovery.
Source: Economic Planning Agency, Annual Report on National Accounts.
6. The economic expansion during the Izanagi boom lasted for 57 months from October 1965 to July 1970.
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The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons
February 1980 to February 1983). Average annual real GDP growth during this
period was only 0.8 percent and industrial production declined 5.2 percent annually.
3. Increase in money supply and credit
The third characteristic of the bubble period was the sizable expansion of money
supply and credit. The growth of money supply (M2+CDs) somewhat decelerated
in 1986 (the lowest growth rate was 8.3 percent in October–December 1986),
but gradually accelerated afterwards and exceeded 10 percent in April-June 1987
(Figure 7). The growth of credit was more conspicuous than that of money supply.
During the bubble period, not only bank borrowing but also financing from capital
markets substantially increased against the backdrop of the progress of financial
deregulation and the increase in stock prices (Figure 8). As a result, the funding of
the corporate and household sectors (the sum of bank borrowing, straight corporate
bonds, convertible bonds, bonds with warrants, and equity increase) rapidly
increased from around 1988 and recorded a rate of growth close to 14 percent on a
year-on-year basis in 1989 (Figure 7).
Figure 7 Monetary Aggregates and Credits
14
Changes from a year earlier, percent
M2+CD
Broadly-defined liquidity
Fund-raising by the domestic
nonfinancial sector
13
12
11
10
9
8
7
1986
87
88
89
Source: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly.
Figure 8 Fund-Raising in Capital Markets by the Private Sector
30
¥ trillions
Bonds with warrants
Convertible bonds
Straight bonds
Stocks
25
20
15
10
5
0
1980
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
Note: Figures correspond to funding by companies listed on the Tokyo Stock Exchange.
Source: Tokyo Stock Exchange.
403
C. Size of Japan’s Bubble Economy
From the latter half of the 1980s, a bubble economy emerged not only in Japan but
also in other industrial countries. Indeed, economic and financial history both at
home and abroad shows that bubbles have often emerged. Thus, to put the size of
the bubble economy in Japan into perspective, it may be useful to compare it with
bubbles in other industrial countries in the 1980s as well as the experience in Japan
after World War I (WWI).
1. Comparison with overseas episodes
Looking at the experience of major countries from the latter half of the 1980s, stock
prices started to rise from around 1983 and, until mid-1987, it was not necessarily the
case that such a rise was only conspicuous in Japan (Figure 9). However, from 1988 the
stock price rise in Japan began to stand out internationally. Borio et al. (1994)
concluded that the rate of increase in real asset prices (both stock and land prices) in
Japan was quite high as were the increases in Sweden and Finland (Figure 10).7
From the latter half of the 1980s, Japan experienced the largest fluctuation in
economic activity among industrial countries. Though the timing of the bubble
period differs slightly from country to country, when one compares economic growth
of the G-7 countries between 1986–90 (the bubble period) and 1991–95 (the
bursting of the bubble period) its fluctuation was the largest in Japan.
Many countries had observed an increase in nonperforming assets since the latter
half of the 1980s, among which the nonperforming assets of Japanese financial
institutions were the largest. Nonperforming assets of major Japanese banks were
Figure 9 International Comparison of Stock Price Movements
3.0
End-1981 = 0 log-scale
MSCI/World
Nikkei 225
New York Dow
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
–0.5
1982 83
84 85 86
87 88 89 90
91 92 93
94 95 96 97
98 99
Note: MSCI/World corresponds to aggregated stock price index in 22 industrialized
countries compiled by Morgan Stanley Capital International.
Sources: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly; Morgan Stanley
Capital International (http://www.msci.com).
7. Real aggregate asset prices estimated by Borio et al. (1994) were updated until 1997 by BIS (1999). The prices are
the weighted average of equity and residential and commercial real estate price indices deflated by consumer prices
with the weights based on the composition of private-sector wealth.
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MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES (SPECIAL EDITION)/FEBRUARY 2001
The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons
Figure 10 Real Aggregated Asset Prices
1980 = 100
1980 = 100
300
300
United States
Japan
France
United Kingdom
Canada
250
Netherlands
250
Finland
Australia
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
1970 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
Sweden
50
1970 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96
Note: Real aggregate asset price indices are a weighted average of equity and
residential and commercial estate price indices deflated by consumer prices.
The weights are based on the composition of private-sector wealth.
Source: Bank for International Settlements (1999).
¥20.3 trillion (4.1 percent of nominal GDP) at end-March 1999 and reached
¥44.6 trillion (9.0 percent of nominal GDP) if the accumulated direct write-offs
from fiscal 1992 are added (Figure 11).8
Granted that it is difficult to make an accurate comparison, but if we take into
account the size of public funds injected and large fluctuations in asset prices, we
may be able to conclude that the bubble in Japan in the late 1980s, like those in the
Nordic countries, was extremely large.9
8. It is difficult to make a precise international comparison of the nonperforming assets of financial institutions. For
example, nonperforming assets in the United States (for member banks of the Federal Deposit Insurance
Corporation) increased from 1990 to 1991, reaching US$117 billion (2.0 percent of nominal GDP) in the second
quarter of 1991. If one adds the amount of direct write-offs in each quarter after the fourth quarter of 1986 when
nonperforming assets began to increase, the accumulated amount of nonperforming assets was US$252.2 billion
(4.1 percent of nominal GDP) in the third quarter of 1992.
9. In Sweden and Finland, public funds were injected to dispose of nonperforming assets in the banking sector on
the scale of 4.7 percent (1991–93) and 7.3 percent (1991, 1992) of nominal GDP, respectively (BIS [1993]). In
Japan, financial reconstruction legislation passed by the Diet in October 1998 provided ¥60 trillion (12 percent of
nominal GDP) in public funds to dispose of nonperforming assets in the banking sector. The figure will be
increased to ¥70 trillion (14 percent of nominal GDP) when legislation related to revision of the Deposit
Insurance Corporation passes the Diet.
405
Figure 11 Nonperforming Loans of Banks
[1] Amounts Outstanding
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
¥ trillions
Accumulated direct write-offs
Risk management loans
Outstanding amount of specific
allowance for loan loss
Mar. 1993 Mar. 94
Mar. 95
Mar. 96
Mar. 97
Mar. 98
Mar. 99
Sep. 99
[2] Ratio to Nominal GDP
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
Ratio to nominal GDP, percent
Accumulated
direct write-offs
Risk management
loans
Mar. 1993 Mar. 94
Mar. 95
Mar. 96
Mar. 97
Mar. 98
Mar. 99
Sep. 99
Notes: 1. Figures are summations of city banks, long-term credit banks, and trust
banks. (Figures for all banks and all deposit-taking institutions are impossible
to retroact before fiscal 1995.)
2. Risk management loans are summations of loans to borrowers in legal
bankruptcy, past due loans in arrears by six months or more, and loans
in arrears by three months or more and less than six months.
Source: Financial Services Agency (http://www.fsa.go.jp).
2. Comparison with the bubble after WWI
Comparing the change in asset prices between the bubble period in the latter half of
the 1980s and the one after WWI (1914–18),10 while the rate of increase and
decrease in stock prices was not different, the speed of decline after the bubble burst
10. At that time, Japan’s economy had been stagnant for a while after the outbreak of WWI, and from mid-1915
started to recover thanks to a rapid increase in exports, converting the trade balance into a large surplus (so-called
special war demand). The economy fell into a temporary recession after the end of WWI in November 1918,
bottomed out in March 1919, and entered a boom phase with a rapid rise in land and stock prices. Economic
expansion was supported by a buoyant U.S. economy, reconstruction demand in Europe, and an expansionary
fiscal and monetary policy. However, in 1920, while imports continued to increase, exports declined due to the
accumulative effect of inflation and the trade balance turned to a deficit. As a result, foreign exchange reserves
and money supply decreased and the economy followed a downward trend. Under such circumstances, the stock
market crashed on March 15, 1920, which added a further blow to the already stagnant economy.
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MONETARY AND ECONOMIC STUDIES (SPECIAL EDITION)/FEBRUARY 2001
The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons
was somewhat faster in the period after WWI (Figure 12). And the rate of increase
in land prices was also larger. Regarding capital gains and losses, for which an
estimate only exists for those on land, capital gains reached 335 percent of GNP
Figure 12 Comparison of Bubbles: 1920s and 1980s
[1] Stock Prices
[2] Land Prices
120
120
100
100
80
80
60
60
40
40
Bubble period
20
20
Bubble period
1920 depression
0
1920 depression
0
–36 –30 –24 –18 –12 –6 0
6 12 18 24 30
–36 –30 –24 –18 –12 –6 0
[3] Aggregate Output
[4] Consumer Prices
125
120
120
110
115
100
110
90
105
80
100
70
95
60
90
50
85
40
80
6 12 18 24 30
30
75
Bubble period
20
Bubble period
70
1920 depression
10
1920 depression
65
0
–36 –30 –24 –18 –12 –6 0
6 12 18 24 30
120
100
80
60
40
Bubble period
1920 depression
0
–36 –30 –24 –18 –12 –6 0
6 12 18 24 30
Notes: 1. All figures are quarterly and normalized as 100
at the time of peak in stock prices 1989/IV for
bubble period and 1920/I for 1920 depression.
2. Regarding aggregate output, real GDP for
the bubble period, and real GNP for the 1920
depression.
[5] Monetary Aggregates
140
20
–36 –30 –24 –18 –12 –6 0
6 12 18 24 30
Sources: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic
Statistics Monthly, Hundred-Year Statistics
of the Japanese Economy, Nihon Kin’yu Shi
Shiryo (Collected Material for Japanese
Financial History); Economic Planning Agency,
Annual Report on National Accounts; Ministry
of Finance, Kin’yu Jiko Sankosho (Reference
for Major Events of Financial Markets);
Takayoshi Asakura and Chiaki Nishiyama,
eds. Nihon Keizai no Kahei Teki Bunseki
1868–1970 (Monetary Analysis of Japanese
Economy 1868–1970).
407
during 1913–19, and capital losses 43 percent of GNP during 1924–30 (Table 1). In
the case of the recent bubble period, capital gains on land were 367 percent of GDP
during the bubble period, and capital losses 107 percent of GDP after the bursting
of the bubble, evidence that capital losses were substantially larger in the recent
bubble period.
If one looks at the development of the economy and prices after the bursting of
the bubble, the extent of the decline was much smaller in the recent bubble period.
According to the EPA, the economy hit its recent bottom in October 1993, although
real GDP for the fourth quarter of 1993 slightly exceeded that of the first quarter of
1991, the recent peak of the business cycle. In contrast, after WWI, real GDP had
increased for about two years after stock prices had hit a peak, and then declined
sharply. Prices as well as stock prices hit a peak in the first quarter of 1920 and then
declined more than 20 percent toward 1921, while the recent bubble period did not
witness any significant price decline.
In sum, compared with the bubble period after WWI, the magnitude of the asset
bubble was larger in the bubble period of the late 1980s, but the decline in economic
activity after the bursting of the bubble was smaller.11
Table 1 Capital Gain/Loss in Land Assets (Comparison with Past Episodes)
Ratio to nominal GDP (GNP), percent
World War I
“Remodeling the Japanese Archipelago”
Bubble period
1913–19
1919–24
1924–30
1930–35
1972–73
1986–90
1991–93
335
1
–43
–26
165
367
–107
Notes: 1. Figures for capital gains and losses are on land stocks.
2. National wealth statistics before World War I are discontinuous.
3. Figures for World War I are ratio to nominal GNP.
Sources: Bank of Japan, Hundred-Year Statistics of the Japanese Economy ; Economic Planning
Agency, Annual Report on National Accounts.
III. Mechanism behind the Emergence and Expansion of
the Bubble
A. Intensified Bullish Expectations
The following are often pointed out as factors behind the emergence and expansion
of the bubble:
• Aggressive behavior of financial institutions
• Progress of financial deregulation
• Inadequate risk management on the part of financial institutions
• Introduction of the capital accord
11. While it is difficult to compare the amount of nonperforming assets due to lack of data around the time of WWI,
the large capital losses mentioned above suggest that substantially larger nonperforming assets were generated
during the recent bubble period.
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• Protracted monetary easing
• Taxation and regulations biased toward accelerating the rise in land prices
• Overconfidence and euphoria
• Over-concentration of economic functions on Tokyo, and Tokyo becoming an
international financial center
These factors are not necessarily mutually exclusive, but interrelated. In this
regard, we are often tempted to ask: among these factors, can we single out the most
important and fundamental factor to explain the emergence and expansion of the
bubble? Unfortunately, there is no simple answer to this question. Our experience
after the late 1980s tells us that realities cannot be explained by any one factor.
Our conclusion is that no single factor was responsible for generating the bubble.
Rather, we believe that when several initial factors changed, there existed certain
factors amplifying such changes, which led to the emergence and expansion of the
bubble. The bubble was generated by the complex interaction of various factors in a
similar way as in a chemical reaction. The process of such a chemical reaction could
be termed the process of “intensified bullish expectations.”
With intensified bullish expectations as our central analytical concept, we discuss
the bubble-generating mechanism by examining factors that are considered to affect
such expectations (Figure 13).
Figure 13 Illustration of the Bubble Economy in Japan
Overheated economic
activities
Rise in asset prices
Expansion of monetary
aggregates and credits
Intensified bullish
expectations
(Initial factors)
Aggressive bank behavior
• Gradual financial deregulation
• Declining profitability
• Monetary easing
(Amplifying factors)
Protracted monetary easing
• Overestimation of endaka recession
• Stable measured inflation
Land tax system and regulation
(Policy agenda of the era)
• International policy coordination
• Prevention of the yen’s appreciation
• Reduction of the current account surplus
through the expansion of domestic
demand
• Fiscal consolidation
Weak mechanism to impose discipline
• No bankruptcy of financial institutions
• Accounting system
• Insufficient disclosure
Self-confidence in Japan
• Outstanding economic performance
• Largest creditor country
• Confidence in Japanese-style
management
• Tokyo as an international financial center
409
First of all, let us examine when and to what extent such bullish expectations
became intensified. In the latter half of the 1980s, Japan’s economy was experiencing
a recession due to the rapid appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Agreement, and
both business and household sentiment was, up to a certain point in time, extremely
bearish. After some point, however, bullish expectations became dominant among
many economic agents such as firms, households, financial institutions, and the
government. Though it is difficult to quantify the extent of such bullish expectations,
we may be able to use the change in the yield spread of stocks as a proxy. The yield
spread of stocks can be calculated by subtracting the yield on stocks (expected
profits/share price) from long-term interest rates. It is equal to the difference between
expected growth rate and risk premium, and thus becomes a measure for bullish
expectations in that it represents the expected growth rate adjusted for risk premium.12
The yield spread of stocks shrank below 2 percent at the beginning of 1987, but
rebounded from around 1988, expanding to some 6 percent in 1990 (Figure 14).
The expansion of the yield spread during this period implies that the expected
growth rate increased, or risk premium decreased, or both happened simultaneously.
If we assume a risk premium of 2 percent,13 the expected growth rate of nominal
GDP in 1990 would have been as high as 8 percent. However, in view of low
inflation at the time, it is almost impossible to believe that the potential growth
rate of nominal GDP was close to 8 percent. Hence, it would be more natural to
infer that the high level of the yield spread in 1990 reflected the intensification of
bullish expectations.
Figure 14 Equity Yield Spreads
10
8
6
Percent
Yield spread
Price-earning ratio
Long-term interest rate
4
2
0
–2
1981 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Notes: 1. Yield spread and price-earning ratio are computed on TOPIX basis.
2. Long-term interest rate is JGB (10-year) at the end of each month.
Source: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly.
12. It is not necessarily important to distinguish between the increase in expected growth rate and the decrease in risk
premium, since both will have an impact on asset prices in the same direction. For example, if a rise in the yield
spread of stocks reflects a decline in risk premium, it suggests stronger confidence for the future, and corporate and
household economic activity will become active as the expected growth rate increases. Hence, when considering the
effects on asset prices, it suffices to evaluate the expected growth rate which is adjusted for risk premium.
13. Risk premium can be calculated as follows. For example, if one takes the difference between the average annual
nominal growth rate for the 10 years 1984 through 1993 (5.3 percent) and the average yield spread (3.4 percent),
it is 1.9 percent. If one takes the difference between the nominal growth rate of 1994 (6.9 percent) when the
declining trend of nominal GDP came to a halt and the yield spread of the same year (4.5 percent), it is 2.4 percent.
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B. Factors behind the Bubble
Through what mechanism was the bubble generated? With focus on intensified
bullish expectations, we examine the following five factors that are considered
important: aggressive bank behavior, protracted monetary easing, taxation and
regulations biased toward accelerating the rise in land prices, a weak mechanism to
impose discipline, and the effect of overconfidence in Japan.14 Though these five
factors are mutually interrelated, if we dare to point the finger at one, it would likely
be the aggressive behavior of financial institutions, which indeed many consider to be
the initial underlying factor behind the emergence of the bubble, while the other four
factors amplified changes in such behavior.
1. Aggressive bank behavior
The first factor that generated the bubble was the aggressive behavior of financial
institutions. After 1987–88, it was clear that the behavior of financial institutions
became extremely aggressive. If looked at more closely, such aggressive behavior on the
part of financial institutions did not suddenly appear in the process of monetary easing
in the latter half of the 1980s, but rather had already gradually started around 1983.
a. Gradual financial deregulation and declining profitability of financial
institutions
Gradual financial deregulation and declining profitability are often mentioned as
factors behind the change in the behavior of financial institutions (Figure 15).15 While
Figure 15 Profitability of Japanese Banks
0.8
Percent
Percent
20
0.6
15
0.4
10
0.2
5
0.0
0
–0.2
–5
–0.4
ROA (left scale)
–10
–0.6
ROE (right scale)
–15
–0.8
1964 66
–20
68
70 72 74 76 78 80 82
84 86
88 90
92 94 96 98
Notes: 1. Figures are for domestically licensed banks (summation of city banks,
regional banks, regional banks II, trust banks, and long-term credit banks).
2. The definitions of ROA and ROE are as follows:
ROA = (profit for the term)/(total assets – acceptances and guarantees),
ROE = (profit for the term)/(total stockholders’ equity).
Source: Japanese Bankers Association, Financial Statements of All Banks.
14. The mass media also played an important role in the transmission process of intensified bullish expectations.
Shiller (2000) stated, “The history of speculative bubbles begins roughly with the advent of newspapers,” referring
to the Dutch tulip mania of the 1630s as the first example of a bubble.
15. Arbitrage between domestic and foreign financial markets had already become active due to revision of the
Foreign Exchange and Foreign Trade Control Law in 1980, abolition of restrictions on yen conversion in 1984,
and the deregulation of interest rates which in effect had already started. Gradual deregulation of interest rates on
deposits commenced from 1985, and various deregulation measures concerning the business activity of financial
institutions and the securities market also started in the 1980s.
411
restrictions on fund-raising in the securities market by firms were removed from around
1980, banks were only allowed phased entry into the securities business and were very
concerned that major firms would become less dependent on them for funding.
In the meantime, the deregulation of interest rates on deposits proceeded gradually, forcing banks to pursue such aggressive lending as loans to small firms backed by
property and also property-related loans at the expense of giving up the economic
rent created by accepting deposits with regulated interest rates (Figure 16).16 As
supporting evidence on this point, we compared the profitability, the growth rate of
loans, and the ratio of property-related lending to total between seven failed banks
and others among member banks of the Second Association of Regional Banks. It is
confirmed that these failed banks were already exhibiting poor profitability in the
first half of the 1980s and aggressively expanded their loans to property-related firms
from the mid-1980s (Figure 17).17
b. Capital adequacy requirements
Some point out capital adequacy requirements as a factor behind the aggressive
behavior of financial institutions.18 The capital base of city banks, long-term credit
banks, and trust banks was ¥35 trillion as of end-September 1988 and increased to
¥46 trillion as of end-September 1989 (Figure 18). The capital base was increased
through several channels. First, it was increased by higher profits reflecting economic
expansion during the bubble period. Second, Tier II capital increased reflecting unrealized capital gains on stockholdings. And third, banks increased equity financing
because of favorable equity market conditions.19
Figure 16 Bank Lending to Real Estate Related Sectors
30
Percent
25
Non-banks
20
15
Real estate
10
5
Construction
0
1978 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99
Notes: Real estate related industries correspond to real estate, construction, and
non-banks.
Source: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly.
16. Hoshi and Kashyap (1999) pointed out that in the 1980s since major firms became less dependent on bank
borrowings and a substantial portion of overall financial assets continued to be composed of bank deposits, banks
sought new lending opportunities among small businesses and property-related firms, which resulted in an
increase in nonperforming assets.
17. Hoshi (2001) showed, by using the financial statement data of individual banks, that the growth of nonperforming assets is closely correlated with the growth of loans to property-related firms, and that the growth of such
loans is affected by the degree of losing their borrowers to capital markets as well as land price increases.
18. Risk-based capital adequacy requirements were agreed in 1988 and effected in Japan from fiscal 1992.
19. It should be noted that subordinated bonds are included in Tier II.
412
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Figure 17 Profitability and Behavior of Failed Tier II Regional Banks
[1] ROE
Percent
11
[2] ROA
Percent
0.35
10
0.30
9
8
0.25
7
6
0.20
5
4
Failed regional banks II
3
Existing regional banks II
0.15
Failed regional banks II
Existing regional banks II
2
FY 1983 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
0.10
FY1983 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
[3] Growth Rate of Total Assets
[4] Ratio of Loans to Real Estate
18
Percent
36
16
34
14
Percent
Failed regional banks II
Existing regional banks II
32
12
10
30
8
28
6
26
4
Failed regional banks II
2
Existing regional banks II
24
22
0
–2
FY1983 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
20
FY1983 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91
Notes: 1. Tier II regional banks are member banks of the Second Association of
Regional Banks.
2. Failed tier II regional banks are Taiheiyo, Tokyo Sowa, Kokumin, Niigata
Chuo, Koufuku, Fukutoku, and Hyogo banks.
Source: Japanese Bankers Association, Financial Statements of All Banks.
The effect of an increase in the capital base due to unrealized capital gains on
stockholdings has been hotly debated in the context of aggressive bank behavior
during the bubble period. If banks had raised the capital base to the level of
“economic capital,” which could have been used as a cushion against risks, it would
be difficult to know whether the aggressive behavior of financial institutions was due
to capital adequacy requirements or the result of recognizing risks on their part.
In Japan’s economy during the bubble period, it thus appears more important to
examine how financial institutions recognized and managed risks under gradual
financial deregulation, rather than the effects of capital adequacy requirements.
413
Figure 18 Capital-Asset Ratios of Financial Institutions
[1] Risk-Based Capital Adequacy Ratios and Capital Components
60
¥ trillions
Percent
12
50
10
40
8
30
6
4
20
Excess of Tier II (left scale)
Tier II (left scale)
Tier I (left scale)
Risk-based capital adequacy ratio (right scale)
10
2
0
0
Mar. 1988 Mar. 89 Mar. 90 Mar. 91 Mar. 92 Mar. 93 Mar. 94 Mar. 95 Mar. 96 Mar. 97 Mar. 98 Mar. 99
[2] Amount Outstanding of Risk Assets
¥ trillions
450
400
350
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
Mar. 1988 Mar. 89 Mar. 90 Mar. 91 Mar. 92 Mar. 93 Mar. 94 Mar. 95 Mar. 96 Mar. 97 Mar. 98 Mar. 99
[3] Stock Prices and Unrealized Profits on Securities
35
30
25
¥ thousands
¥ trillions
Unrealized profits on securities
(left scale)
Nikkei 225 (right scale)
40
35
30
20
25
15
20
10
15
5
10
0
5
Mar. 1988 Mar. 89 Mar. 90 Mar. 91 Mar. 92 Mar. 93 Mar. 94 Mar. 95 Mar. 96 Mar. 97 Mar. 98 Mar. 99
Notes: 1. Figures are summation of 16 banks subject to international standards as
of March 1999 among city banks, long-term credit banks, and trust banks.
2. Unrealized profits on securities correspond to 45 percent of the total,
which can be included in the risk-based capital adequacy ratio.
3. Nikkei 225 comprises figures at the end of each period.
Source: Japanese Bankers Association, Financial Statements of All Banks.
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2. Protracted monetary easing
Protracted monetary easing is cited as the second factor behind the emergence of the
bubble. In fact, from the 1980s major countries, including Japan, saw a high correlation between a rise in asset prices and the expansion of credit (Figure 19). There were
three mechanisms through which monetary easing could lead to a rapid increase in
asset prices.
Figure 19 Real Aggregated Asset Prices and Credit
[1] United States
180
[2] Japan
1980 = 100
1.4
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
160
260
160
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
240
1.3
[3] France
1980 = 100
220
1.2
1.1
200
1.2
140
180
1.1
120
1.0
160
1980 = 100
1.1
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
150
1.0
140
0.9
130
0.8
120
0.7
110
0.6
100
0.5
140
100
1.0
80
0.9
0.9
120
100
1970
75
80
85
90
0.8
1970
[4] United Kingdom
75
80
85
90
1.4
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
1.2
160
1.0
140
1.4
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
1.3
1.2
110
1.1
100
0.6
1.0
90
100
0.4
80
0.2
60
0.0
1970
75
80
85
90
0.8
70
1970
[7] Sweden
240
0.9
80
95
75
80
85
90
1.5
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
275
1.0
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
0.9
200
1.3
225
0.8
180
1.2
200
0.7
160
1.1
175
0.6
140
1.0
150
0.5
120
0.9
125
0.4
100
0.8
100
0.3
0.7
75
1970
75
80
85
90
95
0.2
1970
75
80
90
95
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
120
0.8
110
0.7
100
0.6
90
0.5
80
0.4
70
0.3
60
0.2
75
80
85
90
95
[9] Australia
1980 = 100
250
80
85
130
1970
1.4
220
80
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
140
95
[8] Finland
1980 = 100
75
160 1980 = 100
150
0.8
120
0.4
1970
[6] Netherlands
130 1980 = 100
120
90
95
[5] Canada
200 1980 = 100
180
80
95
85
90
95
130
1980 = 100
1.0
Real aggregate
asset prices
Total private credit/
GDP ratio
120
0.9
110
0.8
100
0.7
90
0.6
80
0.5
70
0.4
1970
75
80
85
90
95
Source: Bank for International Settlements (1998).
415
First, monetary easing could facilitate the funding of speculators by reducing
funding costs (Iwamoto et al. [1999]). Since speculators who engage in large-scale
investments tend to create positions in excess of their own financial resources, they
usually need funds to cover a gap in settlement when trading a variety of financial
assets. Protracted monetary easing from the latter half of the 1980s facilitated the
creation of such investment positions by reducing funding costs. Second, a rise in
stock prices, partly supported by monetary easing, reduced capital costs and facilitated financing in capital markets such as the issuance of new shares at market price
as well as of convertible bonds and bonds with warrants. Third, a rise in land and
stock prices increased the value of land and stocks held by firms, thereby enhancing
their funding ability by increasing the collateral value of these assets.
During the bubble period, it is true that the above three mechanisms worked.
However, it is difficult to believe that the bubble was generated only through monetary
easing. First of all, if monetary easing automatically induces a bubble economy, then
why wasn’t it generated during all previous periods of monetary easing? In addition, why
hasn’t a bubble emerged under such extreme monetary easing conditions as created by
the zero interest rate policy since February 1999? Second, the fact that industrial countries simultaneously, albeit to a different extent, experienced a bubble economy from
the latter half of the 1980s seems to imply that there might exist some common factors
which generate bubbles.20 Considering all the above, it appears that monetary easing is
a necessary but not a sufficient condition for the emergence of a bubble.21
3. Taxation and regulations
The third factor behind the emergence of the bubble is taxation and regulations on
land that tended to induce higher land prices.22
First is the effect of tax rates that are relatively low on the holding of land but
heavy on land transactions. In general, when a rise in land prices is anticipated, the
light tax burden on holding land has the effect of increasing the incentive to continue
holding it, which thus suppresses the supply of land. Furthermore, the heavy tax
burden on transaction gains has the effect of squeezing the supply of land by creating
an incentive to delay selling it for as long as possible. The rise in land prices through
such a mechanism reflected the expected present discount value stemming from the
above tax advantage. Expectations for a rise in land prices increased the expected
present discount value of the tax advantage, leading to a further rise in land prices.
Second is the possibility that land prices, mainly in local areas, were formed by
incorporating expectations that agricultural land would be converted to residential
use in the future as a result of the lax application of regulations on land use. Like the
tax effect just described, this suppressed the sale of land.23
20. Generally observed common factors in the bubbles of major industrial countries from the 1980s include
monetary easing, the review of regulations and supervision not being concurrent with the progress of financial
deregulation, and the distortion of taxation.
21. The relationship between monetary easing and the bubble is examined in more detail in Chapter IV.
22. For the effects of tax and regulations on land price formation, see, for example, Noguchi (1989) and Nishimura
(1995). In the case of overseas, interest payments on housing loans being tax-deductible from income is pointed
out as an important factor in land price formation (Shigemi [1995]).
23. When there is an incentive to hold land that can be sold at any time, it is likely to be left under-utilized. For
example, Kanoh and Murase (1999) showed that the potential option value of the alternative utilization of land is
an important determinant of land prices.
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The rise in land prices due to the above factors can be regarded by landholders as
the “institutional benefits” or “rents” created by the system. When land prices are
rising, these institutional benefits become larger, which in turn accelerates the rise
in land prices.
4. Weak mechanism to impose discipline
As the fourth factor, it is pointed out that, while the behavior of many economic agents
including financial institutions, firms, individuals, and the government became
gradually aggressive during the bubble period, a mechanism to impose discipline on
these agents was not functioning effectively. In Japan, the main bank system had been
playing an important role in imposing discipline on firms, i.e., corporate governance.
However, its functioning gradually weakened as major firms increased their funding
through capital markets. In addition, the mechanism whereby discipline is imposed
by shareholders and creditors did not function sufficiently due to such factors as
cross-shareholdings, the application of the acquisition cost method of accounting, and
insufficient disclosure.24
In light of the change in the environment as financial deregulation progressed,
a new mechanism of corporate governance was needed for financial institutions.
To this end, financial institution should have established a framework for controlling
risks. Delay by the authorities in establishing an appropriate regulatory and supervisory framework made financial institutions rather lenient to review corporate
governance on their part.
Any mechanism imposing discipline on economic agents will change as the
economy develops. A mechanism that is effective up to a certain point in time will
gradually cease functioning adequately as the economic and financial environment
changes. For example, the fact that Japan had not experienced the bankruptcy of
financial institutions for a long time in the postwar period mirrors, in principle, the
soundness of the financial system. The practice of cross-shareholdings enabled firms
to be managed with emphasis on medium- to long-term managerial stability, which
contributed to the strength of Japanese firms. Partly because of such success, there
occurred a delay in establishing a new mechanism of discipline, which is perhaps
partly responsible for the emergence of the bubble.
5. Self-confidence in Japan
It appears that the above four factors are, albeit important, not quite sufficient
to explain the emergence and expansion of the bubble. To further describe the
expansion of the bubble, we need to introduce an additional factor, which we may
term the self-confidence that prevailed in Japan at that time.
Examining the backdrop against which such confidence was created, first is
the fact that Japan’s economy continued to perform well. As we have seen from the
movement of the yield spread on stocks, expectations became clearly bullish from
the latter half of 1988, when Japan recovered from the aftermath of the stock price
crash on Black Monday, and rises in both stock prices and economic growth were
24. As to the accounting standards, for example, convertible bonds and bonds with warrants are issued at a discount
by an amount corresponding to stock conversion and stock purchase rights. Since the discount was treated
inclusive of the issue price of bonds, it was regarded as a profit.
417
witnessed under price stability. Such good macroeconomic performance brought
self-confidence to many economic agents.
Second is the greater role of Japan in international financial markets. For example,
Japan’s external claims substantially increased with the expansion of the current
account surplus. The overseas activities of Japanese financial institutions expanded
considerably and their share of international bank lending was 41 percent at the peak
(in the fourth quarter of 1989). Large-scale takeovers of foreign companies by
Japanese firms were frequently reported. An often-heard term, “the largest creditor
country,” vividly captures the atmosphere of the time.25
Third, Japanese firms were leading the world in manufacturing technology,
including semiconductors, and the success of Japanese-style management was
regarded as evidence that it had a competitive edge over U.S.-style management.
Finally, the rush of overseas financial institutions to Tokyo to open offices also
supported Japan’s self-confidence, as evidenced by the term “Tokyo as an international financial center,” which was often used in the bubble period to describe the
situation. In addition, such a rush to Tokyo pushed land prices higher through the
increased demand for office space in the center of Tokyo, leading to the further
intensification of bullish expectations.26
IV. Did the BOJ’s Monetary Policy Create the Bubble?
The previous chapter described the mechanism behind the emergence of the bubble,
and explained that protracted monetary easing was not the only factor, but one of
several that generated the bubble. This chapter further examines in more detail the
relationship between the emergence of the bubble and monetary policy.
A. Monetary Policy during the Bubble Period
In considering the relationship between the emergence of the bubble and monetary
policy, it is useful to divide the bubble period from the latter half of the 1980s to the
early 1990s into the following three sub-periods.
The first sub-period is from the Plaza Agreement in September 1985 through the
spring of 1987, during which period monetary easing was promoted to counter
the recession caused by the rapid appreciation of the yen after the Plaza Agreement.
The second sub-period is from the summer of 1987 to the spring of 1989. Although
the BOJ sought an appropriate timing to tighten monetary policy during this
sub-period, it could not easily shift to monetary tightening, thus resulting in the
then lowest official discount rate being maintained for a protracted period. The
third sub-period is from the spring of 1989, when the BOJ finally reversed its policy
direction to monetary tightening.
25. The net position of U.S. external assets and liabilities became negative in the mid- to late-1980s (the exact timing
of this turnaround slightly differs depending on the different evaluation of asset prices). In addition, it was in
1979 when both the English and Japanese editions of Ezra F. Vogel’s Japan as Number One were published.
26. The National Land Agency (1985) forecast that demand for office space in Tokyo would increase to a level
equivalent to the office space contained in 250 skyscrapers. It is sometimes pointed out that this forecast could
have had a significant impact on expectations with respect to future land prices at that time.
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1. Process of monetary easing
In order to counter the recession brought about by the rapid appreciation of the yen
after the Plaza Agreement in September 1985, the BOJ lowered the official discount
rate five times for a total of 2.5 percentage points between January 1986 and
February 1987 (Table 2). As a result, the discount rate of 2.5 percent, the then
lowest, continued for about two years and three months from February 1987 to May
1989. There were three interrelated features of monetary policy during this period.
a. Framework of international policy coordination
The first feature was that monetary policy was strongly influenced by the framework
of international policy coordination as exhibited in the Plaza Agreement of
September 1985. The first pillar of the Agreement was coordinated intervention in
the foreign exchange market to rectify the excessive appreciation of the U.S. dollar,
and the second the international coordination of macroeconomic policy. Under such
a framework of international policy coordination, countries with a current account
surplus such as Japan and Germany were requested to boost domestic demand, while
the United States, suffering from a current account deficit, was urged to make efforts
to reduce its fiscal deficit (Table 3).
Of the five reductions in the official discount rate after January 1986, only the
first was at the pure instigation of the BOJ, the second through fifth being strongly
influenced by the framework of international policy coordination as evidenced by the
following fact: the second and third discount rate reductions were decided simultaneously in Japan and the United States and the other two incorporated in the joint
statement of the Japanese-U.S. governments or the statement of the G-7. Therefore,
a vague recognition that interest rates were decided upon consultation with relevant
countries with due consideration given to international relationships became
widespread among the public.27
Table 2 Reduction of Official Discount Rates
Effective date
Official discount rate
Notes
January 30, 1986
5.0 percent→4.5 percent
March 10, 1986
4.5 percent→4.0 percent
The announcement date was the same as that
for the reduction of official discount rate by the
FRB and Bundesbank.
April 21, 1986
4.0 percent→3.5 percent
The effective date was the same as that for the
reduction of official discount rate by the FRB.
November 1, 1986
3.5 percent→3.0 percent
A joint announcement on the stability of foreign
exchange rates by Finance Minister Miyazawa
and Treasury Secretary Baker was published
when the BOJ’s reduction of official discount
rate was put into effect.
February 23, 1987
3.0 percent→2.5 percent
The Louvre Accord was agreed on the
announcement date of the BOJ’s reduction
of official discount rate.
27. Regarding the understanding of international policy coordination, former BOJ Governor Mieno said the mass
media were haunted by the shadow of the Plaza Agreement, believing that policy coordination was to move
interest rates simultaneously (Mieno [2000], p. 255).
419
Table 3 Plaza Agreement and Louvre Accord
Plaza Agreement (September 22, 1985 in New York)
18. The Ministers and Governors agreed that exchange rates should play a role in adjusting
external imbalances. In order to do this, exchange rates should better reflect fundamental
economic conditions than has been the case. They believe that agreed policy actions must
be implemented and reinforced to improve the fundamentals further, and that in view of the
present and prospective changes in fundamentals, some further orderly appreciation of the
main non-dollar currencies against the dollar is desirable. They stand ready to cooperate
more closely to encourage this when to do so would be helpful.
...
In particular, the Government of Japan will implement policies with the following explicit
intentions.
...
3. Flexible management of monetary policy with due attention to the yen rate.
...
Louvre Accord (February 22, 1987 in Paris)
10. The Ministers and Governors agreed that the substantial exchange rate changes since the
Plaza Agreement will increasingly contribute to reducing external imbalances and have
now brought their currencies within ranges broadly consistent with underlying economic
fundamentals, given the policy commitments summarized in this statement. Further substantial exchange rate shifts among their currencies could damage growth and adjustment
prospects in their countries. In current circumstances, therefore, they agreed to cooperate
closely to foster stability of exchange rates around current levels.
b. Preventing the appreciation of the yen
The second feature was that considerable emphasis was given to ensuring foreign
exchange rate stability, especially preventing the yen’s appreciation, in conducting
monetary policy.28 This was against the backdrop of various anxieties such as
the recession occasioned by the yen’s appreciation and the hollowing out of the
domestic economy, reaching a point where preventing the yen’s appreciation became
a national policy.
Statements of the G-5/G-7 around that time referred to the policy intention
of each country. Indeed, the relationship of monetary policy with the foreign exchange rate was emphasized in the Plaza Agreement statement, which said “[f ]lexible
management of monetary policy with due attention to the yen rate” (Table 3). As a
matter of fact, every time the official discount rate was lowered the statement issued
by the Chairman of the Policy Board of the BOJ mentioned securing foreign
exchange rate stability (Table 4). That the change in the official discount rate was
strongly linked to the foreign exchange rate appeared to be especially true in the case
of the rate reductions of October 1986 and February 1987.
Of note is that monetary policy was used as a catalyst for several years after the
Plaza Agreement to entice the United States into coordinated intervention in the
28. In changing the official discount rate after 1970, the foreign exchange rate was only mentioned as a policy objective when the discount rate was raised in 1979 and 1980 (following the second oil shock). When the foreign
exchange rate began depreciating after 1988, interest rates were not raised. Monetary policy was implemented
with emphasis not so much on foreign exchange rate stability but rather on containing the appreciation of
the yen.
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Table 4 Official Announcement of Policy Board
Effective date
Announcement (extract)
January 29, 1986
The Bank of Japan hopes that this action will contribute to achieving domestic
demand growth promoted by lower interest rates, and help correct Japan’s
external imbalance. The Bank will continue to carefully watch the development
of foreign exchange markets in future monetary policy management.
March 7, 1986
Under such circumstances, the Bank of Japan decided it appropriate to lower
its official discount rate. The Bank of Japan hopes that this action will contribute
to limit extreme fluctuations of foreign exchange rate, and help correct Japan’s
external imbalance by promoting growth in domestic demand.
April 19, 1986
The Bank of Japan hopes that this action will contribute to achieving a more
stable movement of foreign exchange rate, and, along with the economic
stimulus package of the Government, promote an expansion of domestic
demand and correct Japan’s external imbalance through such expansion.
October 31, 1986
The Bank of Japan hopes that this action will contribute to sustained economic
growth, and to this end, stability in foreign exchange rates is strongly desired.
In the meantime, the Bank of Japan will continue to carefully watch the
development of monetary easing, such as money supply, while maintaining
price stability.
February 20, 1987
The Bank of Japan hopes that this action, coupled with monetary easing
up to now, will contribute to achieving stability in foreign exchange rates and
steady growth in domestic demand. Recently, Japan and the United States
reconfirmed the commitment to cooperate on various issues in foreign
exchange markets, and close cooperation is thus far expected among
industrial countries to promote stability in foreign exchange markets. The
Bank of Japan will continue to carefully watch the development of monetary
easing, such as the money supply.
Note: Text is the authors’ translation from the original announcement in Japanese, with underlines
added by the authors.
foreign exchange market or to prevent high-ranking U.S. officials from “talking
down the dollar.”29
c. Reducing the current account surplus by expanding domestic demand
The third feature is related with the above two. Monetary policy was influenced
by the economic policy agenda of the time that the current account surplus should
be reduced by expanding domestic demand.30 Statements issued by the Chairman
of the Policy Board were explicit on this point until the third discount rate reduction
(Table 4). Needless to say, the reduction in the current account surplus through the
expansion of domestic demand was pursued in such a way that did not conflict with
the basic objective of the central bank to achieve price stability. Though this policy
agenda was not mentioned with respect to the fourth and fifth reductions, it
nevertheless considerably constrained the conduct of monetary policy by the BOJ.
29. See Funabashi (1988) for the process of how international policy coordination was implemented after the Plaza
Agreement.
30. The so-called Mayekawa Report (Report of Studies Group on the Structural Adjustment for International
Coordination) published in April 1986 most clearly described such a policy agenda. The background behind the
strong concern of the Japanese government over the current account surplus was the adoption of retaliatory
measures against Japan by the U.S. Senate in March 1985 and the drafting of protectionist legislation against
Japanese products. With the expansion of the current account deficit in the United States, trade friction between
Japan and the United States intensified, and protectionist moves to impose sanctions on Japan grew in the
United States.
421
2. Seeking to shift to monetary tightening
Economic recovery gradually became clear from around the spring of 1987.31 As
money supply exhibited a large increase and asset prices soared, the BOJ began to
take a cautious stance in conducting monetary policy. The following describes the
process by which the BOJ sought an opportunity to shift to monetary tightening.
a. Concern over excessive monetary easing
The BOJ had already voiced concern over the massive increase in money supply
and the rapid rise in asset prices in the summer of 1986, immediately after the third
reduction in the discount rate. The concern of senior BOJ officials is expressed in the
term “dry wood” (which can easily catch fire, i.e., easily ignite inflation), which was
often heard at the time. In particular, when an increase in money supply and asset
prices became rather marked after the fourth and fifth discount rate reductions, the
statement issued by the Chairman of the Policy Board expressed strong concern over
excessive monetary easing (Table 4).
Against such a background, after the official discount rate was lowered to the then
lowest rate of 2.5 percent in February 1987, the BOJ desired to raise interest rates as
soon as possible, or at least to avoid a situation in which the conduct of monetary
policy would be “constrained” (see Table 5 for monetary policy implementation
during this period). However, the joint statement after the meeting between
Prime Minister Nakasone and President Reagan in May 1987 referred to the BOJ’s
short-term interest rate operations,32 which resulted in a further decline in short-term
interest rates (the monthly average overnight unsecured call rate fell from 3.52
percent in April to 3.17 percent in May).
Table 5 Transition Process to Monetary Tightening
Date
Related actions
End-August, 1987
Encouragement of money market rates to rise
October 19, 1987
Black Monday (New York stock market crash)
October 20, 1987
Ease in the stance of money market operations
January 13, 1988
U.S.–Japan joint announcement (Reagan and Takeshita)
July–September, 1988
Gradual shift in the stance of money market operations for the direction
of tightening (CD rate increased 0.7 percentage point from its latest
bottom)
November, 1988
Introduction of new framework of money market operations
April 1, 1989
Introduction of consumption tax
May 30, 1989
Increase in the official discount rate (2.5 percent→3.25 percent, effective
date: May 31)
31. The BOJ expressed its view in its quarterly economic outlook of spring 1987 (BOJ [1987b]), saying that “as the
effect of the appreciation of the yen in suppressing exports has gradually receded, and stock adjustment in
response to the yen’s appreciation has progressed, it appears that the economy is, in cyclical terms, beginning
to show firmness.” The EPA also revised its view slightly upward, saying that “the economy is becoming
increasingly robust although the pace of recovery is slow” (authors’ translation).
32. The joint announcement on economic issues by Prime Minister Nakasone and President Reagan that was
released after the meeting referred to the conduct of monetary policy as follows: “Prime Minister Nakasone outlined extraordinary measures to stimulate domestic demand in Japan, which included the already-introduced
money market operations to lower short-term interest rates by the BOJ” (authors’ translation).
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b. Raising the short-term interest rate in the summer of 1987
In view of the prospective hike in the official discount rate, the BOJ took the first
concrete step to change its monetary easing stance at the end of August 1987 when it
began guiding market interest rates to a higher level. As a result, short-term market
rates gradually rose after September and, on October 19, immediately before Black
Monday in the United States, the market rate on newly issued three-month CDs was
4.920 percent, 0.84 percentage point higher than the level at the end of August.
Long-term interest rates also rose by nearly three percentage points compared with
the lowest level, reflecting clear signs of economic recovery, an increase in money
supply, and the rebound of commodity prices both domestically and overseas.
However, Black Monday resulted in the BOJ suspending monetary operations to
guide interest rates to a higher level, and short-term rates declined again. Under such
circumstances, the maintenance of low short-term interest rates was mentioned in the
joint statement issued after the meeting of Prime Minister Takeshita and President
Reagan in January 1988.33
c. Call for “prudent lending attitude”
At that time, the BOJ still maintained the framework of “window guidance” regarding the lending of commercial banks (moral suasion to contain the increase in loans)
as a supplementary measure to orthodox monetary policy measures. Until the first
quarter of 1987 the BOJ simply monitored the lending policy of commercial banks,
but from the second quarter switched to moderate moral suasion urging commercial
banks to maintain a “prudent lending attitude” and gradually strengthened the extent
of moral suasion thereafter.
In the situation where the official discount rate was unchanged, the BOJ could
not conduct effective moral suasion on financial institutions to suppress lending, and
even if it did lending would probably not have declined. On the other hand, if the
BOJ did not effect strong moral suasion, there was a risk that the market would think
the BOJ had no concern over the aggressive lending attitude of commercial banks.
Under such circumstances, although the BOJ gradually strengthened window
guidance with respect to the lending of commercial banks, more decisive policy
action had to wait until the official discount rate was raised.
d. Shift to monetary tightening in major overseas countries
Immediately after Black Monday, financial markets and foreign exchange markets
worldwide were unstable. Major foreign central banks lowered their interest rates and
conducted monetary operations to provide ample liquidity to financial markets (see
Table 6 for monetary policy in Germany and the United States at that time). Such
monetary easing continued until the spring of 1988, but in the summer of the same
year major overseas countries, including the United States and Germany, seeing clear
signs of economic recovery, began raising interest rates again. In the foreign exchange
market, the U.S. dollar reversed course and started to appreciate, and European
countries conducted dollar selling intervention.34
33. In the joint announcement of Prime Minister Takeshita and President Reagan on economic issues, Japan’s
monetary policy was described as follows: “In order to attain sustainable economic growth and to achieve foreign
exchange rate stability, the BOJ has agreed to make efforts to maintain the current policy stance and low interest
rates under price stability” (authors’ translation).
34. See Chapter V concerning the relationship between foreign exchange market intervention and monetary policy.
423
Table 6 U.S. and German Monetary Policy around the Time of Black Monday
Date
United States
Germany
September 4, 1987 Increase in official discount rate
(5.5 percent→6.0 percent)
September 23
Rise in repo rate (3.60 percent→3.65 percent)
October 7
Rise in repo rate (3.65 percent→3.75 percent)
October 14
Rise in repo rate (3.75 percent→3.85 percent)
October 19
Stock price crash in the world markets (the so-called Black Monday). Central banks in each
country provide ample liquidity to money markets.
Mid-October to
mid-November
Reduction of FF rate (week of October 16,
7.59 percent→week of November 13,
6.72 percent)
November 5
Reduction in Lombard rate (5.0 percent→
4.5 percent, effective date: November 6)
December 3
Reduction in official discount rate
(3.0 percent→2.5 percent, effective date:
December 5)
After March 1988
Gradual shift back to tighter stance in money
market operations
June 30
Reduction in official discount rate
(2.5 percent→3.0 percent, effective date:
July 1)
July 28
Reduction in Lombard rate (4.5 percent→
5.0 percent, effective date: July 29)
August 9
August 25
Increase in official discount rate
(6.0 percent→6.5 percent)
Increase in official discount rate (3.0 percent
→3.5 percent, effective date: August 26)
In Japan, short-term interest rates were under pressure to rise due to economic
expansion, and short-term interest rates such as CD and Euro-yen rates increased. At
that time, bill rates that adopted the quotation method were perceived by market
participants as policy rates indicating the monetary policy stance and did not rise flexibly as the economy expanded. As a result, the outstanding amount of the bill market
decreased rapidly from the spring to the fall of 1988. The BOJ adopted the so-called
“new scheme for monetary control” in November 1988 and decided to completely
liberalize interbank market rates, the main objective of which was to enhance the
functioning of the interbank money market as well as break out of this situation.
3. Process leading to monetary tightening
a. Shift to monetary tightening
In 1989, the BOJ began seriously addressing the question of raising the official
discount rate, but could not succeed in persuading the government or the general
public on the need to tighten monetary policy.35 Though the background to this will
35. Following are two examples of articles on monetary policy appearing in major newspapers (authors’ translations):
“Japan, the world’s largest creditor, should maintain low interest rates to the extent possible and strive to
restore the framework of policy coordination among industrial countries” (Asahi Shimbun, February 26,
1989). “There is still a large discrepancy between inflationary concern in financial markets and actual price
developments” (Nihon Keizai Shimbun, March 26, 1989).
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be examined in more detail in the following chapter, the gist of the problem lay in the
large difference of the evaluation of future inflationary pressure.36 For example, the
quarterly economic outlook of the BOJ continued to express concern over inflationary
pressure from the summer of 1988. On the other hand, the monthly economic report
of the EPA consistently reiterated the view that consumer prices were stable even in
1989. Some argued against monetary tightening on the ground that raising interest
rates would bring about a plunge in U.S. stock prices (which had seen stability
restored) and a drastic fall in the U.S. dollar.37 It was in May 1989, a month after
the introduction of the consumption tax, when the official discount rate was
finally raised from 2.5 percent to 3.25 percent (Table 7). In raising the official
discount rate, the BOJ strongly emphasized that it was a preventive measure against
inflation (Table 8).
b. Further monetary tightening
The economy expanded rigorously even after the official discount rate was raised.
Therefore, the official discount rate was raised again in October and December 1989,
by 0.5 percentage point each time, and then two more times in March and August
1990. The two hikes in 1990 were relatively large, one percentage point in March
and 0.75 percentage point in August (Table 7).38
Nevertheless, it took a considerable time for these hikes to have visible effects on
money supply and asset prices including stock and land prices. In fact, the growth of
money supply accelerated even after the official discount rate was raised and reached
a peak in the second quarter of 1990, thereafter continuing to mark still double-digit
growth until the fourth quarter.39 Stock prices continued to rise until end-1989, and
in 1990 plummeted with a few rebounds on the way. Approximately one month after
Table 7 Increase in the Official Discount Rate
Effective date
May 31, 1989
Official discount rate
2.5 percent→3.25 percent
Notes
The BOJ called for commercial banks’ “more
disciplined management of their lending in
terms of both quantity and quality” in the
guidelines of “window guidance” for the
period of June to September.
October 11, 1989
3.25 percent→3.75 percent
December 25, 1989
3.75 percent→4.25 percent
March 20, 1990
4.25 percent→5.25 percent The MOF published an instruction on limiting
real estate related bank lending in March.
August 30, 1990
5.25 percent→6.0 percent
Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait (the so-called Gulf
Crisis)
36. One reason for lack of active discussion regarding inflationary pressure was that it was difficult to calmly discuss
such a possibility prior to the introduction of the consumption tax.
37. Conflict between the United States and Germany regarding Germany’s interest rate hike in the summer of 1987
is sometimes held to be partly responsible for Black Monday, and can be cited as one reason for views opposing
an interest rate hike in Japan.
38. One background factor behind the official discount rate hike in August 1990 was an increase in inflationary
concern due to higher oil prices caused by Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait.
39. It was common practice at the time that money received in issuing CP was invested in large-lot time deposits
to make a profit. This increased both financial assets and liabilities on the balance sheets of financial institutions
and firms.
425
Table 8 Policy Board’s Official Announcements to Raise the Official Discount Rate
Effective date
Announcement (extract)
May 30, 1989
The Bank of Japan considers that this action will contribute to achieving a
continuing sustained growth promoted by domestic demand while maintaining
price stability. The Bank also hopes that it will help correct Japan’s external
imbalance and foster a healthy development of the world economy.
October 11, 1989
The decision was taken to ensure an appropriate and flexible management
of monetary policy with a view to the developments of foreign exchange rate,
interest rates abroad, domestic business activity, prices, and money supply
as well as a rise in market interest rates reflecting these developments. The
Bank of Japan hopes that this action will contribute to a sustainable growth
led by domestic demand while maintaining price stability.
December 25, 1989
The decision was taken to ensure appropriate and flexible management of
monetary policy with a view to the recent developments of domestic business
activity, prices, the money supply, foreign exchange rate and interest rates
abroad as well as a rise in market interest rates reflecting these developments.
The Bank of Japan hopes that this measure will contribute to sustainable
growth led by domestic demand while maintaining price stability.
March 20, 1990
The decision was taken to ensure appropriate and flexible management of
monetary policy with a view to the recent developments of domestic business
activity, prices, the money supply, foreign exchange rate and interest rates
abroad as well as a rise in market interest rates reflecting these developments.
The Bank of Japan expects that this decision will contribute fully preemptively
to maintaining price stability under the present circumstances. The Bank
hopes that this measure will also contribute to sustainable growth led by
domestic demand while maintaining market stability.
August 30, 1990
The decision was taken to ensure appropriate and flexible management of
monetary policy with a view to the recent developments of domestic economic
activity, supply and demand condition of labor market, prices and the money
supply as well as a rise in market interest rates reflecting these developments.
It was based on the judgment that it would be necessary for the Bank of Japan
to take a clearer stance to contain inflation. The Bank of Japan expects that
this decision will prevent a resurgence of inflationary pressures, contribute
to the financial market stability and continue providing for the conditions to
maintain sustainable growth led by domestic demand.
the official discount rate was raised in August 1990, stock prices had dropped to half
the level of their peak. Land prices lagged stock prices in their descent but began to
fall from around 1991. During this period, the economy continued to expand and
peaked in February 1991 according to the EPA. In light of the three features of the
bubble, 1990 saw the economy and money supply continue to expand while asset
prices, at least partially, began to drop.
With regard to monetary tightening after May 1989, let us look at the pace
of monetary tightening and the speed at which it permeated the overall economy.
The call rate, adjusted for inflation, had begun to rise substantially from end-1989,
lagging the rise in the nominal call rate (top panel in Figure 20). With regard to the
spread between long- and short-term interest rates, we began to observe an inverted
yield curve, a typical pattern at times of monetary tightening, in 1991, although it
had temporarily appeared in the latter half of 1989 (center panel in Figure 20). The
lending attitude of financial institutions began to become constrained from the latter
half of 1989 and in 1990 such restraint intensified considerably (bottom panel in
Figure 20).
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Figure 20 Real Short-Term Interest Rates, Spreads between Short/Long-Term
Interest Rates, and Lending Attitude of Financial Institutions
[1] Uncollateralized Overnight Call Rate
Percent
14
Nominal
Real
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
[2] Spreads between Short-/Long-Term Interest Rates
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
–2
–4
–6
Percent
Spreads
Call rate (overnight)
JGB (10 years)
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
[3] Lending Attitude of Financial Institutions
100
80
60
40
20
0
–20
–40
–60
–80
–100
“Accommodative” – “severe,” diffusion index percentage points
Construction and real estate
Non-manufacturing
Manufacturing
1980 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Notes: 1. Shaded areas indicate periods of economic expansion.
2. In calculating real uncollateralized overnight call rate, we employed CPI
inflation adjusted for the impacts of introduction of consumption tax (April
1989) and increase in its rate (April 1997) based on the estimates of the
Bank of Japan Research and Statistics Department.
Sources: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly ; Management
and Coordination Agency, Consumer Price Index.
427
B. Relationship between Monetary Policy and the Emergence and Expansion of
the Bubble
1. How did monetary policy bring about the bubble economy?
First, let us consider how monetary policy became a factor in generating the bubble
economy. In the previous chapter, a fall in funding costs, the expansion of equity
financing, and an increase in collateral value were mentioned as the three mechanisms whereby monetary easing led to a rise in asset prices. Such mechanisms will
always work under monetary easing, though the degree may differ.
The most important point in considering the relationship between the emergence
of the bubble and monetary policy is that as low interest rates were maintained under
economic expansion, expectations that the then current low interest rate would indefinitely continue proliferated after a certain point in time, which led to strengthening
the effects of the above three mechanisms on the rise in asset prices.
Looking at the movement of implied forward rates from 1987 through 1989
(Figure 21), the yield curve flattened while the official discount rate was maintained
at a low level.40 This suggests widespread market expectations that despite clear signs
of economic expansion, the then current low interest rates would continue for an
extended period and that there would be no difficulty in raising funds.
It was in 1989 that the three characteristics of the bubble economy, namely, a rise
in land and stock prices, the massive expansion of money supply and credit, and the
overheating of economic activity, all progressed simultaneously and became most
Figure 21 Implied Forward Rates
8
Percent
7
6
5
4
3
2
Official discount rate
Forward rate (one-year)
Forward rate (three-year)
1
Call rate (overnight)
Forward rate (two-year)
0
1986
87
88
89
Source: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly.
40. The implied forward rate is the future interest rate estimated from market rates with a different time-to-maturity.
For example, the implied forward rate for three years ahead gradually increased from June 1987. As the BOJ
conducted a slightly tighter monetary operation from September 1987, it rose to a level over 6 percent in the fall.
However, such expectations for higher interest rates receded after the worldwide plunge of stock prices in
October of the same year, and the implied forward rate decreased to around 5 percent. After the spring of 1988,
the stock market gradually recovered and the economy once again showed clear signs of expansion. Nevertheless,
the rate basically remained flat at around 5 percent toward the spring of 1989.
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prominent. This seems consistent with the proliferation of expectations that then
current low interest rates, which started from the summer of 1988, would continue
for a prolonged period.
2. Could monetary policy have prevented the emergence of the bubble
economy?
The second question is whether monetary policy could have prevented the emergence
of the bubble economy. If monetary policy were to focus solely on the “complete
suppression of rises in asset prices,” such an objective could be achieved by significantly raising interest rates. In this rather extreme sense, monetary policy could have
prevented the emergence of the bubble economy, or at least the emergence of the
asset price bubble.
In fact, Bernanke and Gertler (1999) conducted a simulation using data for Japan
and calculated the ex post target interest rate that would have offset the stimulative
effects of the asset price bubble (Figure 22). According to their calculation, if the
target interest rate had been raised from around 4 percent to 8 percent in 1988, the
emergence of the bubble could have been prevented.41 Even without such detailed
simulation, there are many discussions in the same vein which maintain that the
emergence of the bubble could have been prevented if monetary policy had been
sufficiently tightened.
Figure 22 Simulation by Bernanke-Gertler
12
Japan call money rate
10
12
10
8
8
Actual
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
–2
–2
Target
–4
Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan. Jan.
1984 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97
–4
Source: Bernanke and Gertler (1999).
41. The simulation by Bernanke and Gertler (1999) shows that the target interest rate temporarily jumped in
1987 and 1997. Such temporary fluctuations in the target interest rate might perhaps reflect the effects of
the introduction of the consumption tax (3 percent) in April 1989 and the hike in the consumption tax (from
3 percent to 5 percent) in 1997.
429
However, even if we had known ex ante the target interest rate that would have
prevented the bubble from emerging, one wonders whether a central bank could have
raised the short-term interest rate from 4 percent to 8 percent in one go at a time
when inflation was very low (annualized inflation rate of the consumer price index
[CPI] was 0.7 percent in 1988).42 During the bubble period, even though the BOJ
advocated the need for monetary tightening, likening the economy to “dry wood
which could ignite at any moment,” it could not succeed in persuading the public.
Even if the BOJ believed that the emergence of a bubble was very likely, it is not
clear if it would have been wise for the BOJ to raise interest rates to 8 percent when
the BOJ was not sufficiently sure about the existence of the bubble. It thus appears
difficult for monetary policy alone to prevent the emergence of a bubble.
3. Would earlier monetary tightening have reduced the scale of the bubble?
The third question is whether we could have reduced the scale of the bubble if
monetary policy had been tightened at an earlier stage. There are two opposing
views on this.
On the one hand, if monetary policy had been tightened at an early stage, the
output gap would have narrowed, and the expansion of money supply and credit
would have been suppressed, thus preventing the expansion of the bubble. On the
other hand, if an early and small rise in interest rates had nipped inflationary pressure
in the bud, it would have only further strengthened already bullish expectations, thus
leading to the expansion of the bubble. Indeed, turmoil in the market following
Black Monday was effective in calming market participants’ bullish expectations, but
we cannot deny the possibility that by overcoming the turmoil bullish expectations
were strengthened again, thus expanding the bubble.
Our views on this are as follows.43 If interest rates had been raised early, expectations for the continuation of low interest rates would have receded more quickly than
otherwise, and to that extent the timing of the autonomous collapse of the bubble
would have been somewhat expedited. If this had transpired, the expansion of credit
during the bubble period would likely have been suppressed and the negative effects
after the bursting of the bubble smaller than otherwise. If interest rates had been
raised early but only by a small degree, asset prices would have continued to rise, and
thus the level of asset prices at the peak might not have differed much from the level
if interest rates had not been raised early.
In fact, bullish expectations intensified so much during the emergence and
expansion of the bubble that a small rise in interest rates would have had little impact
on such expectations. Under such circumstances, it is apparent that an increase
in interest rates would have had to be fairly large to induce a change in market
expectations. In other words, even if interest rates had been high, the effect of
monetary tightening would not have materialized to any great degree until such
expectations had been adjusted downward. If such expectations had been adjusted
42. BOJ Deputy Governor Yamaguchi questions the practical validity of the simulation result, saying “I don’t see
how a central bank can increase the interest rate to 8 percent or 10 percent when we don’t have inflation at all”
(Yamaguchi [1999]).
43. Kent and Lowe (1997) expressed similar views to those of the authors, emphasizing that an early rise in interest
rates would heighten the possibility of the bubble bursting, thereby leading to smaller fluctuations in the real
economy and inflation through smaller negative effects on the financial system after the bursting of the bubble.
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downward, the adverse effects on the economy would inevitably have been quite
large due to the combined effect of the rise in interest rates itself and the revision of
expectations. Indeed, there is a strong possibility that the interest rate hike would
have been large at the end of the bubble period, but this does not imply that it
would have magnified the collapse of the bubble economy.
4. Should prudential regulations have been strengthened during the bubble
period?
The fourth question is whether we should have responded to the emergence and
expansion of the bubble by tightening prudential regulations on financial institutions. There is a view that attributes the emergence and expansion of the bubble
solely to an increase in financial institutions’ aggressive lending to the propertyrelated sector.44 Such a view leads us to the conclusion that an appropriate policy
response during the bubble period would have been the strengthening of prudential
regulations rather than monetary tightening.
If the objective of prudential regulations was only to burst the bubble, propertyrelated lending could have been curbed through the strict regulation of the amount
of loans. In this case, the rise in land prices would have been contained. In fact, the
introduction of regulation on the total amount of property-related lending almost
coincided with the bursting of the bubble.45 However, it is difficult to judge in
advance whether a rise in land prices is a bubble or not and hence whether the
regulatory and supervisory authorities should implement regulations on the total
amount of lending. In addition, if such regulations are effected when there are strong
expectations of a further rise in land prices, a number of loopholes to raise funds
can be found, thus hampering the effectiveness of such regulations. Therefore, it
would be desirable for the regulatory and supervisory authorities to avoid direct
intervention, to the extent possible, in the lending policy of financial institutions,
including lending to property-related firms.
However, this does not mean to argue that it is meaningless for the central bank
and supervisory authorities to attempt some preventive measures in the management
of financial institutions. As we discuss in detail in Chapter VI, the problem during
the bubble period was that credit had substantially expanded and had become greatly
influenced by the movement of land prices. It is an important role of a central bank
and supervisory authorities to accurately understand the existence and characteristics
of risks accompanying aggressive lending and to explain them to the management
of financial institutions. Although it might be difficult to draw a line between the
explanation of risks and direct regulations as described above, it is nevertheless
important for a central bank and supervisory authorities to recognize the difference
between them.
44. See Yoshitomi (1998).
45. In the late 1980s, the Ministry of Finance (MOF) and the Japanese Bankers Associations issued quite a few
directives and guidelines that warned about excessive property-related lending. In March 1990, MOF issued
a directive and guideline that included the following two points:
(1) For the time being, except for lending to public housing land development institutions, the MOF requests
financial institutions to contain the increase in lending to property-related firms to within the increase in
total lending.
(2) For the time being, the MOF will collect reports with respect to lending to the real estate industry,
construction industry, and non-banks.
431
V. Why Was Monetary Tightening Delayed?
As described earlier, the BOJ sought an opportunity to tighten monetary policy long
before the increase in the official discount rate in May 1989, but the start of actual
monetary tightening was significantly delayed. We argued in the previous chapter
that even if we had begun monetary tightening earlier, we could not have prevented
the emergence of the bubble, though perhaps we could have expedited the timing of
its bursting, thereby reducing its negative effects. This chapter examines the reasons
why actual monetary tightening was delayed compared with the BOJ’s intention by
looking at the economic and financial conditions, mainly after 1988.
We adopt two approaches. The first looks back on various developments such as
the increase in money supply that gave warning signals of the emergence of the bubble
and examines why insufficient attention was paid to the above developments in the
economic and financial environment. The second, putting aside individual warning
signals, examines why it was difficult to tighten monetary policy by analyzing the then
prevailing ideas with respect to the conduct of monetary policy.
A. Ex Post Examination of Economic and Financial Conditions during the
Bubble Period
1. Economic activity
Upon reflection, at the time there did not exist sufficient recognition that monetary
tightening was necessary, though the reasons for this might differ between the early
and the latter part of the bubble period.
During the early bubble period from 1987 to the first half of 1988, the strength
of economic recovery was underestimated because of the following two reasons. First,
the speed of the yen’s appreciation after the 1985 Plaza Agreement had been so rapid
that there were serious concerns of recession and the “hollowing out” of the
economy. However, what happened in fact was that the downward pressure on
demand through the appreciation of the yen had already run its course, and the
growth of the non-tradable goods sector, triggered by the change in relative prices
and an increase in real income due to improved terms of trade, was materializing.46
Second, in forming public opinion, the manufacturing industry, which was
susceptible to the deflationary impact of the yen’s appreciation, had a large say.
Although the yen’s appreciation could work to bring about economic expansion
led by non-manufacturing industries through lower import prices, the voice of
non-manufacturing industries was not very loud.
From the viewpoint of what generated the bubble, we should examine the
assessment of the economy during the latter half of 1988. During this period,
economic expansion became clear and the BOJ repeatedly gave warning signals that
the economy was expanding beyond “cruising speed.”47 One reason for the warning
46. In analyzing the appreciation of the yen and economic adjustment in this period, the BOJ (1987) stated
that “Japan’s economy has entered a stage in which the effects of the yen’s appreciation on demand are diminishing, while those on industrial structure due to the change in relative prices are gaining momentum” (authors’
translation).
47. For example, the BOJ (1989a) pointed out, in its quarterly economic outlook of January 1989, the risk that the
economy might enter an adjustment phase due to upward pressures on prices.
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was the constraint on resources as evidenced by the tightness of demand and supply,
especially in the labor market (Figure 23). In addition, there was recognition of the
risk that a large increase in business fixed investment would create excess capacity in
the future, leading to an economic slowdown.
However, these warnings were not viewed as sufficiently convincing. This was
partly because prices were stable in spite of economic expansion. More fundamentally, there existed the prevailing recognition that productivity and the growth
potential of Japan’s economy had increased. Many interpreted the high growth of
business fixed investment as being due to the rising trend of the capital coefficient.48
Despite the rapid economic expansion, over-evaluation with respect to the mediumto long-term sustainability of economic growth proliferated.
2. Inflation
While the most orthodox rationale for a shift to monetary tightening is the existence
of inflationary pressure, extremely stable price developments at the time considerably
weakened the recognition of the need to raise interest rates. For example, in the
summer of 1988 when the United States and Germany raised interest rates, prices in
Japan were extremely stable as witnessed by the year-on-year change in the domestic
wholesale price index (WPI) and CPI for the third quarter being –0.7 percent and
0.2 percent, respectively.49
Figure 23 Labor Supply and Demand Conditions
3.5
Percent
Times
2.0
Unemployment rate (left scale)
3.0
Ratio of job offers to applicants
(right scale)
Ratio of new job offers to new
applicants (right scale)
2.5
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
2.0
1.0
1.5
0.8
0.6
1.0
0.4
0.5
0.2
0.0
1963 64 65 66 67 68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92
0.0
Sources: Management and Coordination Agency, Labour Force Survey ; Ministry of
Labour, Report on Employment Service.
48. It is emphasized that a rise in the capital coefficient has been supported by not only investment for capacity
expansion purposes but also for structural change such as research and development, information-related fields,
and rationalization (for example, see the BOJ [1990b]).
49. It is often pointed out that one reason for stable prices under tight supply and demand conditions was the
increase in merchandise imports from NIEs under the yen’s appreciation, which was termed the “safety bulb
effect of imports.” (For example, see the BOJ [1989b, 1990b].)
433
Looking back, how can we assess the validity of “inflationary concerns” then
expressed by the BOJ? There are three possible assessments, as follows.
First, prices eventually rose substantially toward the end of the bubble period.
The CPI had been stable until around 1987, started to rise gradually in 1988, and
the year-on-year increase was 1.1 percent in March 1989, immediately before the
introduction of the consumption tax (Figure 24). The year-on-year increase in the
CPI, adjusted for the impact of consumption tax, continued to rise after April 1989,
Figure 24 Price Development
[1] Consumer Prices
Percent
5
4
Changes from a year earlier
3
Annualized changes from a
month earlier
2
1
0
–1
–2
1985
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
97
98
[2] Domestic Wholesale Prices
6
Percent
4
2
0
–2
–4
Changes from a year earlier
Annualized changes from a
month earlier
–6
–8
–10
1985
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
Notes: 1. Figures are adjusted for the impact of consumption tax.
2. Regarding the CPI, annualized changes from a month earlier are computed
from a seasonally adjusted series applied by the X-12-ARIMA with the
options as follows:
Estimation period: From January 1980 to December 1998
ARIMA model:
(0 1 1)(0 1 1)12
Level adjustment: April 1989 (introduction of consumption tax) and
April 1997 (consumption tax hike)
3. Regarding the WPI, annualized changes from a month earlier are threemonth moving average of the annualized month-to-month changes in the
original series.
Sources: Management and Coordination Agency, Consumer Price Index; Bank of
Japan, Wholesale Price Indexes.
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and it reached 2 percent in April 1990 and 3 percent in November 1990. In
addition, the month-to-month annualized increase on a seasonally adjusted basis
momentarily exceeded 4 percent in the latter half of 1990.50 In view of the fact that
this 3–4 percent rise in inflation materialized despite a series of monetary tightening
measures beginning with the official discount rate hike in May 1989, it is possible to
conclude that inflationary concerns expressed by the BOJ materialized with a time
lag of about two to three years.
Second, inflationary pressure did not materialize after all and prices were generally
stable during the bubble period. While it is true that the 3–4 percent inflation rate in
the final phase of the bubble period was high compared with the present level of
inflation, such a level cannot be regarded as particularly high compared with the
figure before the bubble period, and thus we might be able to say that price stability
had not been eroded.
The third assessment emphasizes the importance of a long-term view with respect
to price stability. If we take only the bubble period, prices could be perceived as
stable. But if we include the period when the bubble bursts, we cannot say that
prices were stable. During the period when the bubble burst, Japan’s economy experienced a decline in inflation and faced the risk of tumbling into a deflationary spiral
(Figure 24). Such deflation very likely resulted from the bubble economy generated
in the latter half of the 1980s. In this context, it seems more important to consider
whether price stability is sustainable over the long run, instead of discussing whether
prices had been stable during the bubble period. According to this view, it might be
possible to assess that Japan’s economy did not succeed in sustaining price stability
after the bubble period.
Of the three possible assessments above, the first and second boil down to the
question of what can be regarded as a tolerable inflation rate, and there can be a
variety of answers. The experience of the bubble period seems to suggest the
importance of the third point, which puts emphasis on the sustainability of price
stability over a fairly long period.
3. Expansion of money supply and credit
During the bubble period, it was the large increase in money supply and credit that
signaled the need for an early rise in interest rates. In fact, as previously mentioned,
while the BOJ expressed concern over this increase from a relatively early stage, it
turned out that such concern was not sufficiently taken into account. The major
reason for this was lack of a common understanding, including on the part of the
BOJ, as to what kind of problems might be occasioned by the massive expansion of
money supply and credit.
At the time, concern over the large increase in money supply was mainly based
on the view that such an increase would eventually lead to inflation. However, prices
did not rise even though money supply increased, and a view that the statistical
relationship between money supply and prices had become unstable gradually
50. In judging monetary policy operations, it is crucial to know when the expected inflation rate turned to increase.
Higo (1999) has estimated the expected inflation rate and obtained the result that while it had moved parallel
with, or with a time lag, vis-à-vis actual inflation until 1988, it increased rapidly preceding the increase in actual
inflation from 1989 to 1990.
435
prevailed. In addition, the ongoing deregulation of deposit interest rates was often
mentioned as a reason for the statistical instability.51
While an increase in money supply eventually affected prices to a certain extent, it
had more conspicuous effects on the rise in asset prices. However, at the time, the rise
in asset prices was mainly discussed from the viewpoint of equality of income and
asset distribution, and was not seen as inducing large fluctuations in the economy
from a medium- to long-term viewpoint. Accordingly, the large increase in money
supply was not taken seriously.52
4. Rise in asset prices
The rise in asset prices in general and land prices in particular, together with the increase
in money supply was often cited as a rationale for an early interest rate hike during the
bubble period. While the rise in asset prices was discussed from various viewpoints,
the main focus was on the magnitude of so-called wealth effects on expenditure, the
equality of asset and income distribution, and the risk of future inflation.53
While these points were important, the biggest problem stemming from the rapid
rise in asset prices during the bubble period, in our view, was that it induced large
fluctuations in economic activity, including the impact on the financial system, from
a medium- to long-term viewpoint. However, there were only few arguments from
such a viewpoint during the bubble period, and thus the rise in asset prices was not
adequately taken as a warning signal in the conduct of monetary policy.54
B. The Influence of the Prevailing Policy Agenda
In the previous section, we pointed out the difference in assessment regarding
economic conditions and prices as a major reason the BOJ failed to make a convincing
argument in favor of the need for an early interest rate hike. At the same time, it should
51. The BOJ (1988) pointed out that the relationship between prices and money supply had become unstable, and as
background referred to the price stabilization effect stemming from the yen’s appreciation in addition to the
effect of financial deregulation. In the United States, money supply ceased to be used as a policy target and its
role in the conduct of monetary policy subsided substantially as the relationship between money supply and
prices weakened in the process of financial deregulation. (For example, see Friedman [1997].)
52. The BOJ (1988) said that “while progress in monetary easing as witnessed by the large increase in money
supply exerted multiple effects on the expansion of domestic demand and foreign exchange rate stability, one
should be sufficiently aware of its side effects such that an increase in money supply will not lead to higher
growth in the long run, but is accompanied by the risk of higher inflation,” and that “excessive monetary easing
would induce problems from the viewpoint of the stability of money and capital markets as well as of social
equality” (authors’ translation).
53. During the bubble period, many estimates were made regarding wealth effects on expenditure, with most of the
results indicating that they were not so large. (For example, see the BOJ [1990a]).
54. In this regard, the BOJ (1990a) stated as follows in April 1990:
Various economic agents appear to implicitly assume the “myth of ever-rising land prices,” which means that
land prices will continue to rise, or, at least, never fall. However, recent episodes in foreign countries such
as the United States and the United Kingdom show that the decline in land prices triggered the deterioration
in the soundness of financial institutions. Lessons from these episodes can be summarized in the following
three points: (1) A rapid increase in land prices in a short period of time could easily be reversed later on.
(2) In this case, a decline in land prices could ignite financial difficulties at individual financial institutions,
and, in the worst case, lead to the instability of the financial system as a whole. (3) Property-related firms
defaulting on loans are most likely to be seen at small and medium-sized financial institutions and nonbanks. Although it is true that the factors behind the decline in land prices both at home and abroad, such as
monetary tightening, changes in industrial organization, and changes in taxation and other institutional
arrangements, are numerous and varied, they also indicate that the “myth of ever-rising land prices” is not
infallible (authors’ translation).
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be noted that this difference was also strongly influenced by the then prevailing
orientation of economic policy, which may be termed the “policy agenda of the era”
or the “policy paradigm.”
1. International policy coordination
The most often-heard counterargument during the period after 1988 when the BOJ
sought an opportunity to effect monetary tightening was that, against the backdrop
of Japan being the world’s largest creditor and having a huge current account
surplus, an interest rate hike in Japan would result in the collapse of international
policy coordination.55
Originally, international policy coordination was a policy agenda whereby each
country should contribute to sustained growth of the world economy by ensuring the
stability of its own economy.56 However, the experience of the bubble period suggests
that the term “international policy coordination” was often used by a country as
rhetoric in forcing other countries to implement macroeconomic policy adjustment
which they themselves should have already effected.57 The United States, after having
corrected the excessive appreciation of the dollar at the Plaza Agreement, began to
strongly urge other major countries to reduce interest rates for fear that further
depreciation of the dollar might lead to its free-fall against the backdrop of a large
budget deficit and current account deficit.58 It was unfortunate that, against the
backdrop of concern over further depreciation of the dollar on the part of the United
States and concern over recession due to the appreciation of the yen on the part of
Japan, the maintenance of low interest rates with a domestic policy orientation was
often discussed in Japan in the same light as international policy coordination.
2. Preventing the appreciation of the yen
There are two views with respect to how the foreign exchange rate is placed in the
conduct of monetary policy. The first is to conduct monetary policy so as to offset
55. Looking back, former BOJ Governor Mieno mentioned one background factor behind delayed monetary
tightening: “Despite the appreciation of the yen, a reduction in the current account surplus which was regarded
as an international pledge at the time did not progress as expected. Therefore, to raise interest rates and suppress
domestic economic growth was regarded as contradicting the international pledge” (Mieno [2000], p. 206,
authors’ translation).
56. Naturally, effects stemming from the economic policy of other countries are marginal compared with those of
one’s own. For example, Taylor (1993), in estimating the Taylor rule by using a large macro model, estimated a
policy rule by ignoring policy transmission effects from abroad. In addition, Komiya (1988), from the viewpoint
of the effective assignment of macroeconomic policy instruments, argued that “all countries can simultaneously
achieve all objectives most effectively when each country appropriately employs its domestic policy tools to
achieve its own domestic goals.” In addition, Frankel and Rockett (1988) examined major world econometric
models and pointed out that important policy multipliers differed not only in their value but also in terms of
positives and negatives, and that if countries took a policy coordination action based on different models, we
could not expect an improvement in the economic welfare of the countries concerned.
57. Former Governor Matsushita of the BOJ pointed out at a symposium in 1995 that “if a country pursues macroeconomic policy in coordination with other countries, favorable domestic economic conditions such as price
stability and sustainable growth are likely to be sacrificed” (Matsushita [1995]). In addition, Feldstein (1988),
based on his experience as the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisers in the Reagan administration,
pointed out that macroeconomic policy coordination is likely to make other countries a scapegoat or tends to
serve as external pressure to change domestic policy.
58. In Congressional testimony based on the Humphrey-Hawkins Act in February 1986, former FRB Chairman
Volcker emphasized that foreign countries need to expand their domestic economy, saying “The success of all our
efforts is dependent in substantial part on complementary policies by other countries—their success in enhancing
their growth and stability, in opening markets to others, and in helping to deal with points of strain in the
international financial fabric.” As explained in Footnote 56, the improvement in the current account balance
through economic expansion overseas is generally limited.
437
the effects of foreign exchange rate fluctuations on economic activity, and the second
is to conduct monetary policy with the foreign exchange rate or a foreign exchange
rate range as a direct target. The argument against an interest rate hike grounded
on concern of an economic slowdown and the hollowing out of the domestic
economy due to the appreciation of the yen centered around the first viewpoint.
Though there are different views regarding the extent of the economic slowdown and
the hollowing out of the domestic economy, there is no essential difference between
those who advocate an early interest rate hike and those who oppose an interest rate
hike concerning the perception that the effects of the foreign exchange rate need to
be taken into account in the conduct of monetary policy.
During the bubble period, it was a serious blow to the BOJ that many strongly
argued that monetary policy should be conducted with the foreign exchange rate as a
target.59 Under the situation where capital can freely move internationally, conducting monetary policy with the foreign exchange rate as a target means to abandon
independent domestic monetary policy, which is neither possible nor appropriate for
a large economy like Japan. However, under the circumstances where preventing the
yen’s appreciation became a “national priority,” the fundamental problem was in the
tendency to consider that the foreign exchange rate level could be controlled at will
by monetary policy.60
As to the relationship between the foreign exchange rate and monetary policy, the
role of foreign exchange intervention also became a topic of discussion. In Japan, the
Ministry of Finance is responsible for foreign exchange intervention and the BOJ
only conducts foreign exchange transactions as its agent.61 As a result, in some cases,
foreign exchange intervention might not be effected in line with the stance of monetary policy. For example, when the BOJ was seeking monetary tightening, if it had
conducted foreign exchange buying intervention as an agent of the Ministry of
Finance in order to prevent the further appreciation of the yen, the policy stance of
the BOJ would have been weakened and its policy intention perhaps misunderstood.
In fact, after the spring of 1988 when the U.S. dollar reversed course and began to
rise, European countries conducted U.S. dollar-selling intervention and turned to
monetary tightening, but Japan did not intervene. We cannot deny the possibility
that this was perceived as a signal of protracted monetary easing (Figure 25).62
59. The communiqué of the 1987 Louvre Accord stated “they agreed to cooperate closely to foster stability of
exchange rates around current levels,” and it cannot be denied that such treatment of the foreign exchange rate
became an obstacle for the subsequent conduct of monetary policy.
60. In general, it is known as the irreconcilable trinity of an open economy in international finance that, among three
objectives, namely, independent monetary policy, free international capital flows, and fixing the foreign exchange
rate, only two can be achieved simultaneously.
61. Based on the Consolidated Version of the Treaty Establishing the European Community, which stipulates that
price stability is the objective for both monetary and foreign exchange rate policy, the European Central Bank
conducts foreign exchange market intervention to the extent that it does not conflict with price stability.
Regarding U.S. foreign exchange intervention in the 1980s, former FRB Chairman Volcker said it was a system
with a mutual veto held by the Treasury and the Federal Reserve (Volcker and Gyoten [1992], p. 234).
62. As to the relationship between foreign exchange intervention policy and monetary policy at the time, Ohta
(1991) said “it looked rather bizarre in the eyes of central banks in Europe, including the Bundesbank, to see
Japan doing nothing while they were struggling to stop the appreciation of the U.S. dollar by intervening in the
market” (p. 118, authors’ translation).
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Figure 25 Foreign Exchange Market Intervention and Conduct of Monetary Policy
[1] Yen/U.S. Dollar Rate and FX Market Intervention
Yen/U.S. dollar
←Yen purchasing
Yen selling→
¥ trillions
2.0
1.8
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
–0.2
–0.4
–0.6
–0.8
–1.0
–1.2
–1.4
–1.6
280
260
Amount of intervention (left scale)
Yen/U.S. dollar rate (right scale)
240
220
200
180
160
140
120
100
1984
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
90
91
92
93
[2] Policy Interest Rates
Percent
10
8
6
4
2
Official discount rate
Call rate (uncollateralized, overnight)
0
1984
85
86
87
88
89
Notes: 1. Amounts of interventions are estimated from the supply and demand of funds
in foreign exchange funds.
2. Call rates are concatenation of the following two rates: collateralized overnight
rate before June 1985, and uncollateralized overnight rate after July 1985.
Source: Bank of Japan, Financial and Economic Statistics Monthly.
3. Reducing the current account surplus through the expansion of domestic
demand
The policy agenda of reducing the current account surplus through the expansion
of domestic demand also had quite a significant effect in supporting protracted
monetary easing.
439
The current account balance is the difference between the export and import of
goods and services, which can also be regarded as the difference between domestic
savings and investment. The difference between savings and investment of a country
reflects not only cyclical factors but also its long-term trend.63 Japan’s current account
surplus reached 2.1 percent of nominal GDP in the 1980s and, roughly speaking,
the difference between savings and investment over the long term is likely of this
magnitude (Figure 26).64
When a current account surplus basically stems from long-term excess savings,
the expansion of domestic demand cannot result in a substantial reduction in the
surplus. However, in Japan there still remained strong pressure for the reduction
of the surplus through the expansion of domestic demand. Indeed, many called for
a reduction in the current account surplus that went beyond what was justified
by cyclical factors. This policy agenda was a powerful argument against an early
discount rate hike.
4. Relationship with fiscal policy
When we examine the conduct of monetary policy during the bubble period in
relation to the then prevailing policy agenda, the relationship with fiscal policy is also
an issue for discussion. In this regard, the most often-heard argument was that the
delay in the implementation of expansionary fiscal policy increased the burden on
monetary policy which resulted in excessive monetary easing, thus generating the
bubble.65 Indeed, it is true that the government was cautious in implementing
expansionary fiscal policy during the first half of the bubble period from the
viewpoint of fiscal consolidation, and that the expansion of domestic demand was
mainly borne by monetary policy (Figure 27).66
It is often argued that, if expansionary fiscal policy had been implemented at an
earlier stage, the official discount rate might not have been reduced to 2.5 percent.
However, as we examined, the essential issue for monetary policy during the bubble
period was not low interest rates per se but rather the creation of expectations that
low interest rates would continue for a protracted period under economic expansion.
Therefore, the point of discussion is whether an early implementation of expansionary fiscal policy facilitated a policy shift to monetary tightening. If such a shift in
monetary policy was difficult in any case, the argument that the bubble would not
have emerged if expansionary fiscal policy had been effected earlier will not hold.
63. See, for example, Komiya (1994).
64. Ueda (1988, 1992) pointed out, based on an estimation of the current account balance function, that Japan’s
structural current account surplus reached some 3 percent of nominal GDP in the first half of the 1980s, mainly
because of an increase in the U.S. government deficit and a decrease in Japan’s government deficit.
65. It is natural that the fiscal authorities put emphasis on fiscal consolidation. However, the question is whether
fiscal consolidation is achieved through sustainable measures. The bubble period had seen an increase in tax
revenue (corporate, income, inheritance, securities transaction tax, etc.) not only due to economic expansion and
the rise in asset prices but also a temporary increase in revenues stemming from such factors as the sale of NTT
shares and the issuance of commemorative coins. However, tax revenue had not increased if we include the
bursting of the bubble period, and fiscal consolidation was not truly achieved. The BOJ (1989b) estimated that
the increase in tax revenue due to the bubble was about ¥7.5 trillion (5.4 percent of tax revenue and stamp
duties) for three years from fiscal 1986 to 1988.
66. The contribution of public demand to the growth rate of real GDP consistently declined from 1986 through
1989 as follows: 0.8 percent, 0.5 percent, 0.5 percent, and 0.2 percent.
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The Asset Price Bubble and Monetary Policy: Japan’s Experience in the Late 1980s and the Lessons
Figure 26 Ratio of Current Account to Nominal GDP
5
Ratio to nominal GDP, percent
Moving average
for past 10 years
4
3
1970s
0.8%
2
1990s
2.4%
1980s
2.1%
1
0
–1
–2
1970 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98
Note: Figures for current account are concatenation of current and previous basis data
by adjusting the average from 1985 to 1995 when both basis data are available.
Sources: Bank of Japan, Balance of Payments Monthly ; Economic Planning Agency,
Annual Report on National Accounts.
Figure 27 Fiscal Balances in Japan, United States, and Germany
Ratio to nominal GDP, percent
4
United States
Japan
Germany
2
0
Forecasts
–2
–4
–6
–8
–10
1983 84 85 86 87
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96
97 98 99 00 01
Notes: 1. Figures after 1999 are forecasts.
2. Figures for Germany are concatenation of the following two series: West
Germany before 1990, and unified Germany after 1991.
Sources: Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Economic
Outlook, various issues.
The point of discussion above boils down to the question as to what extent the
independence of the BOJ had been assured during the bubble period. Even under the
old Bank of Japan Law, the change in the official discount rate was determined
exclusively by the Policy Board and the BOJ retained independence in monetary
policy. However, the BOJ was also under the broad supervision of the government
441
(the Ministry of Finance) which is responsible for fiscal policy, and the possibility
cannot be denied a priori that such supervision might have affected the independence
of monetary policy. Under the old law, the BOJ maintained that it had “de facto
independence.”67 The new Bank of Japan Law was put into effect in April 1998, and
the independence and accountability of the BOJ were strengthened in various
respects.68 Experience under the new law so far seems to suggest the importance of
independence and accountability that are legally spelled out.
C. Recognizing the Adverse Effects of the Bubble
To summarize the discussions regarding the delay in monetary tightening, we
conclude that we had insufficient recognition of the magnitude of damage caused
by the bursting of the bubble, which was disproportionately larger than the gains
obtained in the emergence and expansion of the bubble.69 If we analyze the adverse
effects of the bubble with the benefit of hindsight after the bursting of the bubble,
the largest adverse effect would be that it induced a prolonged recession through the
following three mechanisms. Among these three, while the first works symmetrically
between the period of the emergence and expansion of the bubble and the period
of the bursting of the bubble, the effects of the second and third mechanisms are
disproportionately larger during the period of the bursting of the bubble.
The first mechanism is a decline in economic activity accompanying the correction of bullish expectations. For example, we can point out the reversed wealth effects
on expenditure and classical stock adjustment as a result of excessive investment
during the bubble period.
The second mechanism is a reduction in the economic value of capital equipment
and reduced supply capacity. During the bubble period, capital expenditures dramatically increased on the premise of a future rise in asset prices and the underlying
pattern of demand. The economic value of such physical assets fell sharply because
they were unlikely to be utilized in the future and it would have been costly to
convert them to different uses. In particular, considering that in the 1990s major
industrial countries expanded their economies by taking advantage of innovation in
information and telecommunications technology, the question of which areas had
67. Regarding independence of the BOJ at the time, the Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies of the BOJ
(1986) stated that “under the current law, the BOJ is widely under the supervision of the Ministry of Finance.
Individual items subject to supervision are stipulated in detail, and the Ministry of Finance retains the right to
issue general business directives and supervisory ordinances as well as to dismiss senior management . . . .
However, since the Bank always maintains close contact and a cooperative relationship with the government, the
above-mentioned right has never been exercised and, in fact, monetary policy has been conducted independently
under the sole responsibility of the Bank of Japan” (p. 445, authors’ translation).
68. For example, independence was strengthened and the transparency of policy decision making mandated legally.
First, the wide-ranging right of the government to issue general business directives was abolished and the right of
the government became limited to supervision of compliance with laws and articles of association. Second, the
reasons for the dismissal of senior management are confined to those such as bankruptcy, physical and mental
disorders, and imprisonment. Third, if the Minister of Finance does not approve the operational budget of the
BOJ, the Minister must publish the reasons. Fourth, monetary policy directives are to be decided by a majority
vote at Monetary Policy Meetings accompanied by a high degree of transparency with detailed minutes published
after meetings.
69. The IMF (1989, 1990) expressed an optimistic view of the future course of economic developments in Japan,
saying that both high economic growth and price stability could be achieved through appropriate economic
policy management.
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been the recipients of business fixed investment during the bubble period in Japan
turned out to be of the utmost significance. In this context, we should recognize that
the serious dynamic resource misallocation caused by misguided prices during the
bubble period was a mechanism inducing economic stagnation.70
The third and the most important mechanism is a so-called balance-sheet
adjustment, in which a fall in asset prices eroded the asset quality of both lenders and
borrowers, and reduced credit availability through the erosion of capital base, leading
to a decline in economic activity. The capital base functions as a buffer against future
risks and losses. Such a function is not clearly recognized as long as the economy is
expanding smoothly. The effects of a capital base shortage will materialize once the
outlook for economic expansion changes. After the bursting of the bubble, as asset
prices fell and the capital base was substantially reduced, the possibility of bankruptcy
increased among financial institutions, firms, and individuals. Under such circumstances, economic agents whose capital base had been eroded became cautious in
taking on risks and also in doing business with counterparties whose capital base
had been eroded.71
VI. Lessons for the Bank of Japan
As explained in the preceding chapters, a bubble is defined as a phenomenon in
which expectations become extremely bullish as various factors work in a complex
manner. As such, we may not be able to completely prevent the emergence of a bubble. The most orthodox approach is to build into the economic fabric a mechanism
of self-restraint, recognizing that bullish expectations might sometimes intensify to
the extreme. In this chapter, we intend to draw four lessons for central banks, bearing
in mind the importance of self-restraint in responding to a bubble.
A. Importance of Forward-Looking Monetary Policy
The most significant lesson that central banks have learnt from the emergence
of bubble economies is the importance of conducting monetary policy in such a
forward-looking manner that it is possible to grasp the potential risk to the economy
as early as possible.
As evidenced by the experience of Japan’s bubble period, a bubble is not generated
suddenly, but expands as it gradually accumulates energy. Therefore, it is important
to deal with a possible bubble in a preemptive manner with a view to the future risk
of inflation rather than to make a belated response only after inflation or the
existence of a bubble visibly materializes. Perhaps monetary policy alone cannot
70. While the first mechanism materializes mainly from the demand side, the second comes mainly from the
supply side.
71. Bernanke, Gertler, and Gilchrist (1996) advocate a “financial accelerator” theory, where a vicious circle between a
decline in asset prices and a decline in demand will be created if information asymmetry exists between those who
supply funds and those who demand funds. Balance-sheet adjustment is regarded as reflecting a more cautious
lending attitude on the part of financial institutions from the viewpoint of firms, and as a more cautious investment
attitude on the part of firms and a decline in demand for funds from the viewpoint of financial institutions.
443
prevent a bubble from emerging. However, if monetary policy were conducted in a
forward-looking manner, economic fluctuations would be smaller.72
Needless to say, in the very process of the expansion of a bubble, it is difficult
to identify whether it is really a bubble or not. One reason for this is the possibility
that the economic structure might be undergoing change. When productivity is
rising reflecting a change in economic structure, strong monetary tightening based
on the assumption that the economic structure has not changed would constrain
economic growth potential. In such a case, the central bank is faced with two
different kinds of risks.
This issue can be regarded as similar to a problem of statistical errors in the test
procedure of statistical inference. Put metaphorically, Type I error (erroneously reject
a hypothesis when it is true) corresponds to a case where (though a “New Economy”
theory may be correct) rejecting the theory means the central bank erroneously
tightens monetary conditions and suppresses economic growth potential. Type II
error (failure to reject a hypothesis when it is false) corresponds to a case in which
a bubble is mistaken as a transitionary process to a “New Economy,” and the
central bank allows inflation to ignite. Given that one cannot accurately tell in
advance which one of the two statistical errors the central bank is more likely to
make, it is important in the conduct of monetary policy to consider not only the
probability of making an error but also the relative cost of each error. Based on the
experience of Japan’s bubble period, it is important for the central bank to recognize
that making the Type II error is fatal compared with the Type I error when faced
with bubble-like phenomena.
Of course, a comparison of risks inherent in the two types of errors does not
necessarily imply that monetary policy should be conducted by considering only the
more fatal risk. Even though the risk of a bubble is regarded as more fatal, we should
perhaps choose a gradual tightening rather than a rapid tightening in the conduct of
monetary policy.73 However, even in such a case, we should take a pragmatic
approach to flexibly select the degree of tightening while paying due attention to not
only Type II error but also Type I error.
How should a forward-looking monetary policy be conducted? The answer is
to conduct monetary policy with emphasis on maintaining an environment
conducive to sustainable economic growth, which is the ultimate goal of price
stability. A favorable environment presumes both price stability and financial
system stability.
Price stability, which monetary policy should aim at, is not stability at any
particular point in time but rather sustainable stability that can support economic
growth over the medium to long term. Therefore, even when measured inflation is
stable, it will become necessary to raise interest rates promptly to ensure sustainable
72. There may be a case where the market would respond before the central bank if it was thought the central bank
would act in a preemptive manner. In this case, the central bank would follow market movements to change the
policy rate.
73. Brainard (1967) points out that if there is uncertainty with respect to the multiplier effect of economic policy
measures, then the authorities should adopt a conservative approach. See also Blinder (1998) on this point.
However, Stock (1998), by using a small U.S. model, contends that it is desirable to adopt an aggressive policy
rule when the economy is undergoing structural change.
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price stability if the risk of such stability being impaired is judged to be increasing.74
Monetary policy also influences the financial system through the behavior of
financial institutions and macroeconomic conditions. To achieve financial system
stability, it is important to maintain not only a favorable macroeconomic environment but also the soundness of individual financial institutions. In this regard, the
regulatory and supervisory authorities play an important role. Thus, it should be
noted that, although financial system stability is an important policy objective for the
central bank, it should be recognized that the central bank does not command the
same power of influence over this objective as it does over price stability when trying
to maintain a favorable environment.
B. Grasping the Risk Profile of the Economy
The second lesson of the bubble economy is the importance of recognizing the risk
profile of the economy as a whole, which might adversely affect price stability and
financial system stability from the medium- to long-term viewpoint. No rules exist
regarding how to recognize risks. Based on the experience of Japan’s bubble period,
we should examine the issue from the following five perspectives: the output gap
in the economy, money supply and credit, asset prices, the behavior of financial
institutions, and the interaction of various risks.
1. Output gap
In the bubble period, the overheating of the real economy was most vividly evidenced
by labor market and capacity utilization data. Of course, there is a lag between the
tightening in the labor market and capacity utilization, and a rise in wages and prices.
However, as it is not easy to increase capacity in the short run, the economy should
be carefully monitored when the output gap narrows.
2. Money supply and credit
In the bubble period, we could have extracted useful information from such data as
an increase in money supply and credit. After the 1970s, money supply fluctuated
widely on two occasions: in the first half of the 1970s when the yen appreciated
and the first oil crisis occurred, and after the latter half of the 1980s. These two
occasions coincided with periods of considerable fluctuations in prices in general as
well as asset prices (except for the period when the second oil crisis occurred).
Furthermore, during these two periods, real economic growth rates also experienced
large fluctuations.
At present, no consensus exists among central banks concerning how to place
money supply in the conduct of monetary policy. Based on past experience, including the bubble period, when money supply and credit show a very large upswing, we
should pay close attention to such movements in the conduct of monetary policy on
the presumption that large fluctuations in these indices may indicate the possibility
of undesirable changes in economic activity.
74. FRB Chairman Greenspan discusses the definition of price stability that monetary policy should pursue and
referred to an operating definition of price stability from a central banker’s point of view: “Price stability obtains
when economic agents no longer take account of the prospective change in the general price level in their
economic decision making” (Greenspan [1996]). See Shiratsuka (1997) for discussion on the definition of price
stability as the target of monetary policy.
445
3. Asset prices
Monetary policy cannot control the level of asset prices. If it dared to do so, it would
amplify fluctuations in economic activity. Nevertheless, we should recognize the
importance of asset prices in the conduct of monetary policy because they influence
monetary policy in a variety of ways. First, asset prices affect expenditures through
wealth effects. Second, they contain valuable information about expectations regarding
the future economic outlook. If we make use of asset prices in obtaining information,
we must be mindful of the fact that a change in asset prices reflects not only the
inflationary expectations of private economic agents but also other factors such as
phenomena similar to the bubble and structural change in the economy.75 Third, a
change in asset prices may have a huge impact on financial system stability and, in due
course, on economic activity as a whole.76
As Kindleberger (1995) points out, there are no cookbook rules to deal with asset
prices.77 However, we think it important to accurately analyze changes in asset prices
and examine whether the expectations implied are sustainable in relation to the
course of the overall economy, bearing the above three viewpoints in mind.
4. Behavior of financial institutions
The expansion of a bubble accompanies the expansion of money supply and credit.
One cannot judge whether the expansion of money supply and credit is compatible
with sustainable economic growth just by looking at growth rates of money supply
and credit. To evaluate the nature of expansion, the content has to be taken into
consideration. For example, borrowing costs and covenant clauses such as collateral
requirements, types of collateral and haircut rates are important. Another important
point is how an increase in bank liabilities, i.e., money supply, corresponds to an
increase in the assets of financial institutions. During the bubble period in Japan,
money supply and credit were discussed from quantitative viewpoints. But we also
need to monitor the credit creation behavior of financial institutions and analyze how
it might affect the economy.
5. Interaction of risks
In retrospect, during the bubble period financial institutions took risks that were out
of proportion to expected profits. There was lack of recognition about risks related to
the economy as a whole and the financial system, especially the concentration and
interaction of risks.
The interaction of risks takes various forms. First, let us look at the interaction of
risks among different but related industries. For example, during the bubble period
the high profitability of computer-related industries owed greatly to large computerrelated investments by financial institutions. Such investments, triggered by financial
75. Shiratsuka (1999) examines the possibility of incorporating asset prices in the price index. He concludes that it is
very difficult to construct a price index which includes asset prices for the following reasons: accuracy and coverage of asset price statistics are low; changes in asset prices depend on various factors; they are also significantly
influenced by economic and financial developments.
76. For example, the possibility of utilizing information, which can be extracted from derivatives markets and other
financial markets, is one important issue to be examined (see Nakamura and Shiratsuka [1999]).
77. Kindleberger (1995) said on this point that “When speculation threatens substantial rises in asset prices, with a
possible collapse in asset markets later, and harm to the financial system, or if domestic conditions call for one
sort of policy, and international goals another, monetary authorities confront a dilemma calling for judgment,
not cookbook rules of the game. It is, I believe, realistic.”
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globalization and the progress of technological innovation, were also closely related
to a rise in asset prices. Under these circumstances, the economy tended to be
influenced by a larger increase in asset prices than generally thought. Second, risks
arising from the correlation between loan value and collateral value can be pointed
out. During the bubble period, real estate and stocks were often accepted as
collateral. However, if the profitability of businesses financed by secured loans is
closely related to collateral value, such loans become practically unsecured since
profits and collateral value move in the same direction.
These aggregate risks are not merely the sum of risks recognized by individual
economic agents. Here, the interaction of various risks plays an important role.
In addition, the interaction of risks may arise between financial and nonfinancial
sectors. Therefore, a perspective that recognizes aggregate risks is quite important,
and it becomes crucial which risk factor should be watched under evolving economic
and financial conditions.
The BOJ gathers information regarding the economy and financial system
through its examination and monitoring of financial institutions and also through
daily dialogue with financial market participants. The BOJ is well positioned to grasp
the risk profile of the economy, which may adversely affect sustainable economic
growth, by taking advantage of such information.
C. Relationship with the Prevailing Policy Agenda
The third lesson we have learnt from the bubble period is the importance of working
on the policy agenda. In Chapter V, we described three policy agenda items, namely,
international policy coordination, preventing the appreciation of the yen, and a
reduction in the current account surplus by expanding domestic demand, which
constrained the conduct of monetary policy during the bubble period. We also
explained the relationship with fiscal policy. Although various agenda that may be
detrimental to the fundamental mission of the central bank may surface depending
on economic conditions at the time, it will be difficult for the conduct of monetary
policy to be immune from any particular policy agenda once it proliferates. Hence, it
is important for the central bank to constantly express its views on key policy items.
D. Importance of Designing an Appropriate Institutional Framework
The fourth and last lesson from the bubble period is the need to design an appropriate institutional framework. Monetary policy influences the decisions and
behavior of private economic agents through interest rates and liquidity. But the
degree of influence depends on the institutional framework, such as the supervision
of financial institutions, taxation, the regulatory framework, accounting system, and
legal infrastructure.
Considering the experience during the bubble period in Japan, if financial
deregulation had progressed at an earlier stage, and if the regulatory and supervisory
framework had been modified in line with the changes in financial markets, the
behavior of financial institutions would probably have been different to some extent.
If taxation on land had not been biased toward accelerating an increase in land prices,
the degree of increase in land prices would have been different. If the BOJ had
447
implemented reform measures with respect to the short-term money market and
window guidance at an earlier stage, as we touched upon in Chapter IV, economic
developments might have been slightly better.
If an institutional framework is likely to adversely affect sustainable price stability
and financial system stability, the BOJ should analyze the macroeconomic impact
and make known its views to the public, even if the BOJ is not directly responsible
for designing the institutional framework. At the same time, it is important that
the BOJ should make efforts to review and modify, if necessary, any institutional
framework for which it is primarily responsible as the economic and financial
environment changes.
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