Download trade

National Board of Trade
Lena Johansson
Director General
National Board of Trade
• Agency for foreign trade and trade policy
• Promote free trade and transparent rules
• Our main task is to improve opportunities
for international trade
Objectives
• An effective Internal Market
• An open trade policy in the EU
• A strong multilateral international trading system
Ljuset är proportionell mot
den ekonomiska aktiviteten
Ljuset (ekonomiska aktiviteten)
är mest intensiv vid kusten och
navigerbara floder
Var ”ljusnar” det och varför?
- Framförallt i länder som integrerar
sig i världsekonomin, t.ex. BRICs
The Swedish Government:
….. create growth and employment in Sweden
by promoting free trade and dismantling of
trade barriers
Developing countries
• Analyses of developing countries
perspective
• Competence and capacity building
programmes in developing
countries
• Open Trade Gate Sweden
International trade and development
• Why do people trade?
• Situation and developments in world trade
• Trade and Climate Change
• Development perspective
• Swedish trade patterns and developments
• Trade policies
Free trade
• Trade creates welfare
• Sweden is very dependant on international trade
Swedish trade dependance
Exports/GDP > 50 %
Imports/GDP = almost 50 %
Världsexport och Sveriges export av varor och
tjänster
25 000
300
Världsexport: Miljarder USD
200
15 000
150
10 000
100
5 000
50
0
0
Världen
Sverige
Källa: WTO
Svensk export: Miljarder USD
250
20 000
Exportand
av varor
och tjänster,
Exports of goods
services,
percent of GDP
(1960-2007)
procent
av BNP (1960–2007)
60
50
Andel (%)
40
30
20
10
0
Världen
Sverige
Exports/GDP
1960
1996
2006
Global
10 %
20 %
30 %
Sweden
14 %
35 %
> 50 %
FDI och export (1980 - 2007)
2500
Index 1980 = 100
2000
1500
1000
500
0
Källa: UNCTAD
FDI
Export
Foreign investments/GDP
1995
2005
Global
10 %
24 %
Sweden
30 %
> 50 %
30%
20%
Average annual
import growth, goods
15%
10%
5%
60%
25%
Average annual growth in FDI stocks
Average annual imports growth, services
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Average annual GDP growth
0%
0%
5%
10%
5%
10%
15%
Average annual GDP growth
Average annual GDP-growth
Imports of goods and services increase faster
then GDP in almost every country
FDI´s grow even faster
15%
International trade is still regional
• Total trade between North America, Asia and Europé =
23 % of world trade
• Trade within the three regions= 53 % of world trade
- Europe 31 % (single market 25 %)
- Asia 14 %
- North America 8 %
787mdr $
(6 %)
477mdr $
(4 %)
103 mdr $
(1 %)
4243mdr $
(31%)
1108 mdr $
(8%)
951 mdr $
(7 %)
93,4 mdr $
(1%)
282 mdr $
(2%)
40,5 mdr $
(0,3 %)
122 mdr $
(1 %)
315 mdr $
(2 %)
Intra regional handel
Inter-regional handel
Källa: WTO International Trade Statistics 2008
1148 mdr $
(8%)
1889mdr $
(14%)
EU-27:s intra- och extra regional varuhandel som andel av total
handel 1962-2008
80
70
60
Andel (%)
50
40
30
20
10
0
1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008
Extra-import
Linear (Intra-export)
Linear (Intra-import)
Linear (Extra-export)
Källa: UN comtrade database (Wits)
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Andel (%)
Sveriges intra- och extra-handel med varor som procentandel av total handel 1962-2008
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Intra-export
Extra-export
Källa: UN comtrade database (WITS)
Intra-import
Extra-import
Exportutvecklingen i internationell jämförelse
(2008 - 2010)
30
Förändring över motsvarande
kvartal föregående år (%)
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
-50
EU (extern)
Finland
Tyskland
USA
Sverige
Källa: Statistisches Bundesamt Deutschland, U.S. Department of Commerce Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Tulli, Finland, Eurostat och SCB
23
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B iko
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Ty ilie
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Fr n ie
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Ita
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P n
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Tj len
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R kie
ys n
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Jo lan
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Tu n
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t
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a
In
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Ja n
In
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Ta y
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N a
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A
% som söder handel
The public opinion
Support for international trade is strong, but the trend is
negative?
100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
2002
2007
The public opinion (2)
Important to note that support for imports much smaller than for trade
Decreasing protectionism, 1995-2007
• 25 new WTO-members
• Decrease in tarrifs and quotas
• Trade facilitiation at the border
• World trade encreased by 170 %
• Trade in services increasing
• Liberalized rules for foreign investments
30%
20%
Average annual
import growth, goods
15%
10%
5%
60%
25%
Average annual growth in FDI stocks
Average annual imports growth, services
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0%
0%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Average annual GDP growth
0%
0%
5%
10%
5%
10%
15%
Average annual GDP growth
Average annual GDP-growth
Imports of goods and services increase faster
then GDP in almost every country
FDI´s grow even faster
15%
Conclusion:
Trade policy has,
almost by any measure,
been dramatically liberalised
almost everywhere
since 1995
Trends in world trade – long term
•
Global market place
•
Global Value Chains
•
Goods -> Services
•
Servicification
•
e-commerce
Other tendencies - short term?
•
Crises effects, politics
•
New protectionism
•
Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally
•
Local production
•
Climate concerns?
Development aspects
Emerging markets
Export byRegional
regionsfördelning av varuexporten
(1963 och 2007)
i världen (1963 och 2007)
50
Andel (%)
40
30
20
10
0
1963
2007
Fragmenterad produktion
“The first unbundling” – Baldwin
Olika arbetsinsatser genomförs på samma plats (i samma land)
Fragmenterad produktion
“The second unbundling” – Baldwin
“Trade in tasks” - arbetsuppgifterna sprids ut över världen
Fragmentering kan ske på flera olika sätt – inom eller utom företaget,
i hemlandet eller i utlandet
Offshoring och outsourcing leder till handel med insatser
Made in Sweden?
A typical Swedish motor vehicle is only 50 % Swedish…
One third of Sweden´s exports consists of imports
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
1995
Källa: Egna beräkningar baserade på SCB:s Input-Outputtabeller
2005
20%
Russia
India
Brazil
United States
Argentina
Australia
Indonesia
South Africa
Japan
United Kingdom
New Zealand
Norway
Israel
Turkey
Switzerland
Italy
France
Spain
Germany
Greece
China
Poland
Canada
Austria
Portugal
Sweden
Denmark
Netherlands
Finland
Mexico
Chinese Taipei
Korea
Belgium
Slovenia
Czech Republic
Slovak Republic
Estonia
Ireland
Hungary
Luxembourg
Swedish exports are not only made in Sweden
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
OECD-average: 31 %
10%
0%
Sectors
1995
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Tjänstesektorer
2005
En Boeing Dreamliner : Made in America?
43 subcontractors
Spread on 135 production facilities in the world
Among other things, wings made in Japan, the engines of in the U.S.
and Great Britain, the doors in France and Sweden
70 % of the components are manufacturesd outside the U.S.
”Källa: Newhouse, John and A. A, Knopf (2007), Boeing vs Airbus, The inside story of the greatest
international competetion in business, New York, USA
Ett växande avstånd mellan företagens
verklighet och handelspolitiken
“While the nature of global trade has
changed, trade regulation in the EU and
other OECD economies has remained
largely the same.”
“Everybody is in
Services”
– The Impact of
Servicification in
Manufacturing on Trade
and Trade Policy
(under tryck)
• E-commerce
• New options
• New barriers
• Cloud computing
Trends in world trade – long term
•
Global market place
•
Global Value Chains
•
Goods -> Services
•
Servicification
•
e-commerce
But also
Other tendencies - short term?
•
Crises effects, politics
•
New protectionism
•
Public procurement, internationally, EU, Sweden, locally
•
Local production
•
Climate concerns?
Development aspects
Emerging markets
The relationship between international trade and transport
modes
Andel av världshandeln i vikt (2006)
Källa: UNCTAD (2008)
CO2 emissions by sector and the transport sector
Källor: IEA (2011) och
OECD (2010b)
CO2-utsläpp per ton-km
Emission intensity for different modes
Källa: Cristea m.fl. (2011)
How does trade effect CO2 emissions?
• Transports
• Production: location, methods
• Innovations and technical developments are spread
A surgery
Made in Sweden?
A commute
Made in Hong Kong?
Swedish trade with other EU countries
Exports
61 %
Imports
72 %
Sveriges 12 viktigaste exportmarknader 2011
14
12
Andel (%)
10
8
6
4
2
0
Källa: SCB
Andel av Sveriges totala export
Sveriges 12 viktigaste leverantörsländer 2011
20
18
16
14
Andel (%)
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
Källa: SCB
Andel av Sveriges totala import
Regional fördelning av svensk export efter
bestämmelseland
Andel av total export 2011
EU(27)
56%
Oceanien m fl
2%
Asien
13%
Amerika
10%
Övriga Europa
15%
Afrika
4%
Varuexport till Sveriges fem största exportländer
20
18
16
14
Andel (%)
12
Tyskland
Norge
10
Danmark
Storbritannien
8
USA
6
4
2
0
2000
2001
Källa: SCB
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
Varuimport från Sveriges fem största importländer
20
18
16
14
Tyskland
Andel (%)
12
Danmark
Norge
10
Storbritannien
8
Nederländerna
6
4
2
0
2000
2001
Källa: SCB
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
What companies regard as their home market?
50%
45%
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
Världen
EU
Norden
Sverige
Närområdet
Vad hindrar att företagen ser EU som sin
hemmamarknad?
Byråkrati
Inget intresse
Språk
Koncern/licens
Resurser
Vill inte växa
Produktanpassning
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Ser företagen den inre marknaden
som ett hot eller möjlighet?
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Främst ett hot
Främst en möjlighet
Varken eller
SOLVIT Centre
• Provides assistance to companies and
private citizens encountering trade barriers
• Free of charge
Sveriges varuexport och
världsmarknadsandel
3.0%
120 000
2.5%
100 000
2.0%
80 000
1.5%
60 000
1.0%
40 000
0.5%
20 000
0
0.0%
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
År
Sveriges varuexport
Sveriges andel av den totala varuexporten i världen
Sveriges andel av den
totala varuexporten i världen
Sveriges varuexport, miljoner USD
140 000
Swedish companies’ problem with exports (%)
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
Source: National Board of Trade (2010)
Larger companies experience increased trade barriers
Do you find that customs duties or other trade barriers have increased
since the start of the financial crisis?
Yes
No
Don’t
know
7.0
87.9
5.1
Small
Medium-sized
6.6
9.4
88.0
88.1
5.4
2.5
Large
7.9
85.0
7.2
Total
Size of company
WTO
Members (153)
Applicant
countries (30)
Key issues in Doha round
• Agriculture
• Industrial Goods, NAMA
• Services Trade
Genomsnittlig tullnivå för
industrivaror i i-länder
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
40
4
1950-talet
2003
Tullnivåer i i-länder och u-länder
14
12
procent
10
8
6
4
2
0
Genomsnittlig tullnivå i Genomsnittlig tullnivå i I-länders tullar på varor
i-länderna
u-länderna
från u-länder
U-länders tullar på
varor från andra uländer
FTAs notified and active (1948-2008)
500
WTO
is founded
Number of FTAs
400
300
200
100
0
1948
1953
1958
1963
1968
Notified to GATT/WTO
1973
1978
1983
1988
1993
1998
2003
2008
Notified to GATT/WTO and in force
Source: WTO RTA gateway
EU:s new approach in FTAs
• Global Europe
– EU:s economic interest
– Abolish all tariffs and other import restrictions
– Include services and investments
– Non Tariff Measures
– Sectors
– Sustainable development
• Agreement with South Korea
EU trade policy
• Common policy
• EU acts as one part in WTO
• Customs Union
• Import Quotas
• Antidumping and other safeguards
• Free Trade Agreements
• Common Agicultural Policy, CAP
“Nations do not trade, nor do sectors.
It is firms that trade”
“… This simple truth makes it
clear that understanding the
firm-level facts is essential to
good policy-making in Europe.
The view that it is important to
focus on the firm rather than
the sector is the single most
important message of recent
developments in international
economics”.
Citat från EU-sponsrade forskningsprojektet:
European Firms in a
Global Economy (EFIGE)
The National Board of Trade reports
on global value chains
•
•
•
•
•
2007: Adding value to the European Economy
2010: Made in Sweden? (engelska och svenska)
2010: At your service/Till er tjänst
2010: Servicification of Swedish manufacturing
2012: Business reality and trade policy – Closing the
gap
www.kommers.se/verksamhetsomraden/Utrikeshandel/
Trade related Development Cooperation
Contribute to developing countries
• trade possibilities and
• trade negotiation capacity
Surveys and publications
• Reports in Swedish and English
• Website: www.kommers.se
www.kommers.se