Download Trend and Forecasts for Australian Container Ports

Trend and Forecasts for Australian
Container Ports
Dr Gary Dolman
Head of Bureau
Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics
Canberra
Email: [email protected]
Importance of trade
• Australia is heavily reliant on trade for its prosperity
• In 2012-13, total merchandise trade totalled $A502.4 billion
($A248.0 billion exports and $253.5 billion imports)
• Merchandise trade was approximately 33 per cent of GDP in 2012-13
• Shipping accounts for over 99 per cent of Australia’s total trade, by weight
Trend in Australia’s container throughput
• Growth in container
throughput in
Australian ports has
been faster than
GDP growth
• Containerisation of
trade expands due
to unification of
container handling
and declining costs
of their use on a
global scale
Productivity of container handling – wharf side
• Wharf side reforms were implemented in
Australian container ports around 2000
• Productivity growth has since slowed
Productivity of container handling –
comparison
• Container handling productivity
has improved relatively to
economy-wide productivity
measures
• The rise in the ‘ship rate’ while
the ‘crane rate’ remains
relatively constant can be
attributed to an increase in the
‘crane intensity’, which is the
number of cranes working on a
vessel on average
Productivity of container handling - landside
• Landside productivity, as measured by truck and container turnaround
times, has been improving slowly over the period 2006 to 2013
• A slight increase in handling times can be noted in 2013
Truck Turnaround Time
Container Turnaround Time
Port-interface cost index
• Historically, container
handling costs have been
declining in Australia while
the general price level
across the economy
(measured by the GDP
deflator) has been
increasing
• Beginning around 2010,
the container handling
costs reversed this trend
and started rising
Australian port trade volumes: 2011-12
Australian port trade values: 2011-12
BITRE shipping forecasts
• The forecasts have been updated on the basis of:
• Re-estimated econometric models of containerised and noncontainerised export and import demand &sea passenger demand
• The most recent economic outlook and population growth for
Australia and its major trading partners
• Main drivers of growth in containerised and noncontainerised trade:
• Population
• Real income
• Exchange rates
• Real export prices
• Real import prices
Forecasts: Containerised trade
• Containerised trade doubling over the next 20 years:
From 7.2 m TEUs in 2012–13 to 19.4 m TEUs in 2032–33
Forecasts: Containerised trade
• Projected average annual growth rate:
Brisbane: 6.2%
Melbourne: 4.8%
Other Ports: 5.0%
Fremantle: 5.8%
Sydney: 4.5%
All ports: 5.1%
Adelaide: 5.4%
• Projected volume of containerised trade in 2032-33
Melbourne: 6.4 m TEUs
Brisbane: 3.6 m TEUs
Adelaide: 1.0 m TEUs
All ports: 19.4 m TEUs
Sydney: 5.2 m TEUs
Fremantle: 2.1 m TEUs
Other Ports: 1.2 m TEUs
Forecasts: Containerised trade by port
Forecasts: Sea passengers (cruise ships)
• The total (inbound plus outbound) number of sea
passengers increased by 2.5 per cent a year over the last 30
years: from 20 000 in 1983–84 to 41 000 in 2012–13
Forecasts: Sea passengers
• The long-term outlook for the cruise shipping industry is also
positive, largely due to the projected economic growth in
source countries of cruise passengers, particularly the USA
• Total sea passenger number projected to increase by 1.8%
a year over the next 20 years to 59 100 in 2032–33
– Inbound increasing by 2.9% a year to 27 300 in 2032–33
– Outbound increasing by 1.1% a year to 31 800 in 2032–33
Sensitivity analysis on economic growth
• Two alternative economic growth scenarios:
High-growth scenario:
Average annual GDP growth in Australia and all OECD countries was
assumed to be 0.5 percentage points higher than in the base case.
Low-growth scenario:
Average annual GDP growth in Australia and all OECD countries was
assumed to be 0.5 percentage points lower than in the base case.
Sensitivity analysis on economic growth:
Total containerised trade
Sensitivity analysis on exchange rates
• Two alternative exchange rate scenarios
High exchange rate scenario:
The Australian dollar remains at par with the US dollar over the
forecast period
Low exchange rate scenario:
The Australian dollar gradually declines from its current level to US 50
cents per Australian dollar in 2029–30 and remains at that level
Sensitivity analysis on exchange rates:
Total containerised trade
Comparison with previous forecasts: Total
containerised trade
• Current forecasts consistent with the previous BITRE
forecasts
– Slightly lower than those published in 2006 and
– Slightly higher than those published in 2010
• Annual average growth rate:
Current: 5.1%
BITRE (2006): 5.4%
BITRE (2010): 4.2%
• Differences are largely due to:
– Changes in the estimated demand parameters due to changes in the
historical model estimation period and
– Revised population and economic outlook for Australia and its trading
partners
Comparison with previous forecasts: Total
containerised trade
Landside movements – Assigned import
container road flows, Sydney, 2009-10
• Over 88 per cent of
containers imported through
Sydney Ports to first
destination within Greater
Metropolitan Area
• Fairfield-Liverpool area first
destination for approx. 34%
of GMA import containers
• Outer Western Sydney (e.g.
Blacktown) region first
destination for approx. 24%
of GMA import containers
• Inner Sydney and area
around Port Botany
accounted for further 14% of
GMA import containers
Landside movements – Assigned import
container road flows, Melbourne, 2009-10
• Over 85 per cent of
containers imported through
Port of Melbourne to first
destination within Greater
Metropolitan Area
• West Melbourne area
(Altona, Sunshine, etc.) first
destination for approx. 33%
of GMA import containers
• Dandenong region first
destination for approx. 21%
of GMA import containers
• Tullamarine, Campbellfield &
surrounds, to the north,
accounted for further 14% of
GMA import containers
Concluding remarks
• Australia is heavily reliant on trade for its prosperity
• In 2012-13, total merchandise trade totalled $A502.4 billion,
accounting for 33 per cent of GDP
• Shipping accounts for over 99 per cent of Australia’s total trade, by weight
• Containerised trade has been growing faster than GDP since 1990s
• Container port productivity also improving faster than whole economy
• Real container import and export costs, declining until 2010, have risen
slightly since
• Forthcoming BITRE Report 138 updates BITRE long-term forecasts of
containerised and non-containerised trade for Australia’s five largest capital
city ports and, in aggregation, all other ports, to 2032–33
• The report also presents the updated national-level forecasts of Australia’s
inbound and outbound sea passenger numbers
Concluding remarks
• Forecasts are unconstrained—no inclusion of supply-side parameters
related to port capacity or commodity availability
• Containerised trade volume and the number of sea passengers will
continue to increase but at lesser rates than historical trends
• The forecasts are more sensitive to GDP growth than exchange rates
• Current BITRE forecasts consistent with the previous BITRE forecasts
– They fall in between those published in 2006 and 2010
• Models are being developed of import container movements through cities