Download Introduction to Assignment 1 Crop Species Niche Modeling

Assignment 1: Crop Species Niche Modeling
Evaluating current and possible future food plants for cultivation in South
Africa
First watch Video “Farm for the Future” - this will demonstrate the need to radically change our
food production strategies to use less fossil fuel, use less herbicides/insecticides, to move away
from monocultures yet increase and diversify our agricultural potential. The key point is to optimise
the food species selected within the operating environmental conditions. One approach is to use an
Ecological Niche Model and to breed back the disease resistance from the ancestor gene pools. For
this study we will concentrate on food plants as they are easier to model and have fewer
complicating variables to assess their value under current climate and predicted future climates.
It needs to be recognised that food is often grown in areas where the food species would not
naturally occur due to climatic and other limitations. Consequently current food production
becomes highly dependent on using irrigation or growing under heated conditions which all increase
the ecological foot print of the production.
Another key consideration is to actually increase food production from almost 2-D space (a typical
wheat field) into a 3-D growing space such as forest garden with its clearly defined strata of food
producing species.
Please be aware that we are looking not only at domestic markets but also at export markets as
agriculture represents a big potential generator for foreign exchange.
To do this analysis we are going to use a modified SWOT analysis re-termed a PLOT Analysis
P= Potential: to either increase the role as a food plant or for significant investment to made to
establish economically productive cultivation now and given anticipated climate changes.
(Equivalent to Strengths). For the potential we are looking mostly at the biophysical aspects of food
plant and its production.
L= Limitations: What conditions current or in the future would limit the opportunity for expansion of
this food species or introduction to new parts of the country?
O=Opportunities: This will expand on your bio-physical analysis for the potential needs. This part of
the analysis attempts to answer the following more socio-economic questions. Are there good
export options? Is demand for the species likely to increase as new taste fashions are presented or
to provide health beneficiation in certain markets? Does South Africa have a competitive advantage
in terms of exports and can we exploit marketing niches or gaps or expand seasonal availability in
certain affluent markets?
T=Threats: could the introduction and expansion of production result in potential for it becoming an
Invasive problem species? Are their similar countries that could outcompete our South African
production of this species. Is there a risk of over-production and global gluts in the production that
would push production costs to be higher than realised economic returns.
You will need to select one of the food plant species listed below for analysis. Please “book” your
species using the UWC ESS Face Book page (further instructions will be provided in class). You will
not be allowed to do analyse the same species as one of your class mates.