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Learning Goals • Appreciate that events on the other side of the world affect us Learning Goals • Appreciate that events on the other side of the world affect us • Be able to discuss epidemiological issues using basic terms Learning Goals • Appreciate that events on the other side of the world affect us • Be able to discuss epidemiological issues using basic terms • Describe the properties that affect the spread of an infectious disease Learning Goals • Appreciate that events on the other side of the world affect us • Be able to discuss epidemiological issues using basic terms • Describe the properties that affect the spread of an infectious disease • Motivate future discussions of how our bodies interact with infectious microbes ???? 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic • Had little to do with Spain 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic • Had little to do with Spain • Soldiers coming home from WWI were thought to spread the virus 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic • Had little to do with Spain • Soldiers coming home from WWI were thought to spread the virus • At least 40 million people died worldwide and about 500,000 people died in the US 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic • Had little to do with Spain • Soldiers coming home from WWI were thought to spread the virus • At least 40 million people died worldwide and about 500,000 people died in the US • 20-40% of the world population became ill because of the pandemic 1918 Spanish Flu Pandemic • Had little to do with Spain • Soldiers coming home from WWI were thought to spread the virus • At least 40 million people died worldwide and about 500,000 people died in the US • 20-40% of the world population became ill because of the pandemic • Because they held national quarantines, Western Samoa and Iceland avoided the 1918 flu 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic • The global death toll was estimated to be around 2 million with about 70,000 deaths in the United States 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic • The global death toll was estimated to be around 2 million with about 70,000 deaths in the United States • In US, students and young adults were at the greatest risk because they were commonly in crowded situations, which helped to spread the disease 1957 Asian Flu Pandemic • The global death toll was estimated to be around 2 million with about 70,000 deaths in the United States • In US, students and young adults were at the greatest risk because they were commonly in crowded situations, which helped to spread the disease • Vaccine production started 3 months after initial Asian outbreaks 1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic • Resulted in nearly 34,000 deaths in the United States and killed as many as 1 million people worldwide 1968 Hong Kong Flu Pandemic • Resulted in nearly 34,000 deaths in the United States and killed as many as 1 million people worldwide • Vaccine became available one month after the initial outbreak Avian Influenza – “the Bird Flu” • 160 humans infected, ~80 dead, millions of birds dead, only transmissible from birds to humans so far Avian Influenza – “the Bird Flu” • 160 humans infected, ~80 dead, millions of birds dead, only transmissible from birds to humans so far • Spreading from East Asia to Europe, recently found in Italy Avian Influenza – “the Bird Flu” • 160 humans infected, ~80 dead, millions of birds dead, only transmissible from birds to humans so far • Spreading from East Asia to Europe, recently found in Italy • The bird flu will likely evolve the ability to pass from human to human. If this happens, its 50% mortality rate could kill millions of people What if…? • If either the 1918 flu or 1957/1968 flu hit the US today, ~90 million (of 295 million) people would be infected What if…? • If either the 1918 flu or 1957/1968 flu hit the US today, ~90 million (of 295 million) people would be infected • The 1918 pandemic would kill 1.9 million people and cost $203 billion What if…? • If either the 1918 flu or 1957/1968 flu hit the US today, then ~90 million (of 295 million) people would be infected • The 1918 pandemic would kill 1.9 million people and cost $203 billion • The 1957 or 1968 pandemics would kill 200, 000 and cost $87 billion • If it were the bird flu, with 50% virulence rate…