Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Download THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL
Document related concepts
Transcript
THE NORTHERN MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL Setting the foundations for a regional approach to marine governance © WWF-US / JAMES MORGAN Background Document Aurthor: David O. Obura With contributions by: Valerie Burgener, Martin E. Nicoll, Harifidy O. Ralison, Peter Scheren May 2015 !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! ! The$Northern$Mozambique$Channel.$ Setting$the$foundations$for$a$regional$approach$to$marine$governance! ! Background!Document,!May!2015! ! Citation$ Obura!DO,!Burgener!V,!Nicoll!ME,!Ralison!HO!&!Scheren!P!(2015)!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel.!Setting!the!foundations! for!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance.!A!Background!Document.!WWF!International!and!CORDIO!East!Africa.! ! ! ! Acknowledgements! This!document!is!a!result!of!1.5!years!of!consultations!and!inputs!from!multiple!contributors.!It!was!made!possible!through!the! Secretariat!of!the!Nairobi!Convention!!and!WWF!Madgascar,!with!funding!from!the!Swedish!Development!Cooperation!Agency! (Sida).!Consultations!on!the!northern!Mozambique!Channel!initiative!were!held!in!four!workshops,!from!which!relevant!inputs! rd to!this!document!were!obtained;!we!thank!the!participants!who!attended!those,!at!the!3 !International!Marine!Protected!Area! th Congress! (21V27! October! 2013,! Marseilles,! France),! the! 8 ! Science! Symposium! of! the! Western! Indian! Ocean! Marine! Science! Association! (WIOMSA,! 28! October! –! 2! November! 2013,! Maputo,! Mozambique),! a! partners! meeting! hosted! by! the! Western! Indian!Ocean!Consortium!(WIOC)!(June!2014)!and!sessions!at!the!World!Parks!Congress!(November!2014).!The!document!also! benefited!from!insights!obtained!from!the!deliberations!of!the!Blue!Ribbon!Panel!of!the!Global!Partnership!for!Oceans,!and!its! publication!‘Indispensable!Oceans’,!and!we!thank!the!BRP!panel!for!stimulating!insights!that!have!informed!this!document.!A! number!of!contributors!made!significant!reviews!and!contributions,!and!associate!members!of!the!NMC!core!team!contributed! to! the! development! of! ideas! contained! in! this! document! over! time.! For! this,! we! acknowledge! and! thank:! Aime! Gonzalez,! Alasdair!Harris,!Andrea!Ghermandi,!Helena!Motta,!Keith!Lawrence,!MariaVJoão!Rodrigues,!Mark!Hoekstra,!Martin!Nicoll,!Paul! Gamblin!and!Paulo!Nuñes.! ! Disclaimer! This! publication! brings! together! key! information! sources! on! the! northern! Mozambique! Channel! subregion,! to! assist! in! the! development! of! a! regional! initiative.! In! order! to! show! geographic! information,! names! are! used! reflecting! common! and! published!usage!in!the!literature!and!United!Nations!system!in!recent!decades.!Lines!showing!administrative,!national!and!EEZ! boundaries!are!approximate,!and!make!no!statement!on!jurisdiction!of!the!territories!depicted.! ii!! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! ! Executive Summary The! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! (NMC)! includes! parts! of! the! Exclusive! Economic! Zones! of! Madagascar,! Mozambique,! Tanzania! and! France,! and! the! whole! of! the! Comoros,! covering! an! area! of! approximately! 450,000! km2.! The! coastal! population! of! the! NMC! is! currently! 10! million! and! is! largely! dependent! on! its! healthy! and! productive! ecosystems! through! fishing,! coastal! agriculture,! tourism! and! other!activities.!With!natural!gas!discoveries!adding!to!the!riches!of!the!NMC,!the!region!is!likely!to!go! through!an!economic!and!population!boom!in!the!next!2V3!decades,!the!last!great!one!for!countries!in! Africa!emerging!from!histories!of!poverty!and!conflict.!This!document!describes!the!foundational!assets! of! the! NMC! region! that! will! support! growth! and! development! in! a! way! that! could! be! sustainable! and! beneficial!for!all!countries!and!sectors!of!society,!through!a!holistic!approach!to!development.! While! the! natural! assets! that! fuel! development! and! growth! are! clearly! in! the! focus! of! development! agents,! corporations! and! governments,! there! is! a! risk! for! unsustainable! exploitation! practices! to! dominate,! and! deliver! a! future! where! wealth! is! not! shared! equitably,! and! the! region! repeats! the! development!errors!of!the!20th!century!in!most!of!the!mineralV!and!energyVrich!economies!in!Africa.!To! counter! this! risk,! the! Capitals! Approach! is! presented,! which! recognizes! the! importance! of! integrated! action! across! five! principal! assets! or! capitals! for! sustainable! development! –! natural,! economic,! social,! human!and!institutional.!The!document!outlines!the!principal!assets!of!the!NMC!in!each!of!these!areas,! as! well! as! current! and! future! threats! to! them,! and! concludes! with! outlining! an! approach! to! regional! partnership!that!could!deliver!sustainable!and!equitable!oceanVbased!development!for!the!region.! The! natural! assets! of! the! NMC! include! diverse! and! valuable! coastal! and! pelagic! ecosystems! including! coral! reefs,! mangroves,! seagrasses,! open! waters! and! coastal! habitats.! These! support! productive! fisheries,!and!sectors!such!as!tourism!and!coastal!development!are!already!expanding.!The!natural!gas! fields!in!the!NMC!are!among!the!largest!globally,!and!with!production!horizons!of!40V50!years!can!fuel! the! region’s! development! over! multiple! generations.! The! economic! assets! of! the! region! build! on! the! natural!assets,!many!of!which!are!only!at!early!stages!of!exploitation!–!hydrocarbon!and!other!mining! sectors! are! set! to! expand! exponentially,! the! Mozambique! Channel! is! a! strategic! maritime! highway! of! both!regional!and!global!significance,!and!coastal/urban!development!and!tourism!are!already!growing.! Coastal! fisheries! support! a! large! proportion! of! the! coastal! communities! and! are! thus! of! great! social! value,!and!while!the!resources!of!some!locations!are!heavily!to!overVexploited,!the!potential!for!greater! output!in!wellVmanaged!coastal,!shelf!and!pelagic!fisheries!is!high,!and!could!deliver!broader!economic! benefits!sustainably.!! The! social! and! human! assets! of! the! region! are! diverse,! the! peoples! of! the! region! share! four! major! languages!–!French,!Portuguese,!Swahili!and!Malagasy!–!with!many!tribal!languages!spoken!throughout! the!coastlines.!The!institutional!or!political!capital!of!the!region!reflects!a!difficult!and!fractured!history,! with!new!models!of!democracy!and!interVgovernmental!cooperation!emerging!from,!in!some!countries,! decades! of! conflict! and! hardships.! Regional! institutions! such! as! the! Nairobi! Convention! and! Indian! Ocean! Commission,! and! economic! and! sectoral! bodies! such! as! the! Southern! Africa! Development! Community! (SADC),! the! Common! Market! for! Eastern! and! Southern! Africa! (COMESA)! and! several! Regional! Fishery! Management! Organizations! provide! a! template! for! building! a! regional! approach! to! ocean!governance.!! Education,!health!and!social!services!in!the!region!are!generally!poor,!reflecting!the!low!income!levels! and!Human!Development!Index!of!four!of!the!five!countries.!Nevertheless,!these!indicate!the!enormous! potential!for!growth!that!the!region!has:!the!combination!of!low!income,!a!youthful!population!and!high! population!growth!rate!coinciding!with!the!information!age!and!globalized!economy!of!the!21st!century! will! likely! deliver! the! last! major! economic! and! social! boom! that! the! world! will! see.! Information! and! technical!capacity!in!the!region!is!perhaps!the!weakest!of!all!its!assets,!yet!is!of!critical!and!increasing! importance!for!advancement!in!coming!decades.!Both!local!cultures!and!modern!trends!are!coalescing! iii! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! to!strengthen!the!role!and!potential!of!civil!society!at!all!levels!of!governance!in!the!region,!setting!the! stage! for! the! complex! partnership! and! governance! arrangements! that! 21st! century! growth! and! governance!will!require.! The!challenges!to!development,!and!drivers!of!change,!in!the!NMC!have!been!wellVdescribed!at!larger! levels!for!the!WIO,!through!a!series!of!Transboundary!Diagnostic!Analyses,!with!ten!root!causes!being! identified:!population!pressure,!poverty!and!inequality,!inappropriate!governance,!inadequate!financial! resources,! inadequate! knowledge! and! awareness,! climate! change! and! natural! processes,! economic! drivers,!cultural!traditions!and!personal!attitudes.!Immediate!threats!particularly!relevant!to!the!NMC,! that! emerge! from! these! drivers,! include:! destruction! and! degradation! of! critical! habitats,! overexploitation! of! living! resources,! population! growth! enhanced! by! immigration! and! attitudes! that! don’t! reduce! fertility! rates,! urban! and! coastal! development,! shortVterm! profitVmaximization! as! the! driving!force!in!economic!development,!lack!of!investment!in!formal,!informal!and!technical!education! and! capacity! building,! lack! of! a! common! ground! for! institutionalized! decisionVmaking! across! the! five! countries,! and! two! key! crossVcutting! issues:! maritime! and! political! security,! and! coping! with! climate! change.! Two!opposing!scenarios!of!change!are!presented!to!contrast!the!opposing!outcomes!that!good!vs.!weak! governance!may!have!in!delivering!a!long!term!(25V50!year)!future!for!the!people!and!economies!of!the! NMC.! In! the! Fuelled! BusinessVAsVUsual! scenario,! weak! governance! and! hydrocarbon! riches! result! in! shortVterm!profit!maximization!by!individuals!and!corporations!for!their!own!economic!gain,!resulting!in! erosion!of!natural,!social,!human!and!institutional!assets.!This!scenario!fails!to!meet!the!challenges!of! managing! the! commons! in! favour! of! private! and! corporate! interests! in! the! distribution! of! wealth! and! benefits.!The!outcome!of!this!approach!has!been!wellVdocumented!in!energy!and!mineralVrich!locations! such!as!the!Niger!Delta!and!the!eastern!Congo!basin.!The!even!higher!wealth!that!can!be!extracted!from! the! Mozambique! Channel’s! natural! gas! reserves,! and! massive! populations! in! the! five! countries! exceeding! 500! million! people! by! 2100,! may! result! in! even! higher! social! inequalities,! crime,! corruption! and!environmental!destruction!than!has!occurred!elsewhere!to!date.!! The!Green/Blue!Economy!scenario!focuses!on!maintaining!and!enhancing!the!health!and!productivity!of! renewable! natural! assets,! wealth! is! shared! more! equally,! governance! and! social! institutions! are! strengthened!and!human!development!and!capacity!are!valued.!In!this!scenario!the!rapidly!expanding! pressures! of! population! and! economic! growth! are! tempered! by! policies! that! limit! growth! and! lead! to! equitable!sharing!of!wealth!from!the!regional!commons.!The!vast!wealth!derived!from!hydrocarbons!is! reinvested! in! political,! social! and! welfare! institutions! that! benefit! all! peoples! in! the! region,! while! releasing!fair!profits!to!corporations.!In!this!scenario,!the!Capitals!Approach!provides!a!framework!that! facilitates!thousands!of!small!and!large!decisions!in!many!different!sectors!that!reinforce!and!build!on! one!another,!transforming!threats!into!opportunities,!and!delivering!the!desired!outcome!of!sustainable! and!equitable!development.! The! report! concludes! with! an! outline! of! a! strategic! approach! to! build! a! regional! initiative! for! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! that! uses! the! Capitals! Approach! and! partnership! across! governments,! the! private! sector! and! civil! society! to! deliver! a! ‘Green! Economy‘! future! characterized! by! sustainable! generation!of!wealth!and!prosperity,!and!conservation!of!the!oceans.! ! ! ! iv! ! Table of contents 1.! The!northern!Mozambique!Channel!....................................................................................................!5! 2.! Capitals!and!assets!of!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!.................................................................!6! 2.1.! Natural!capital!...............................................................................................................................!6! 2.1.1.! 2.1.2.! 2.1.3.! 2.1.4.! Geology!..................................................................................................................................................!6! Oceanography!........................................................................................................................................!7! Marine!biodiversity!................................................................................................................................!8! Flagship!species/megafauna!..................................................................................................................!9! 2.2.! Social!capital!................................................................................................................................!10! 2.2.1.! Population!and!demographics!.............................................................................................................!10! 2.2.2.! Income!and!welfare!.............................................................................................................................!11! 2.3.! Human!capital!..............................................................................................................................!11! 2.3.1.! Education!.............................................................................................................................................!12! 2.3.2.! Health!...................................................................................................................................................!12! 2.4.! Economic!capital!..........................................................................................................................!13! 2.4.1.! 2.4.2.! 2.4.3.! 2.4.4.! 2.4.5.! 2.4.6.! Economic!activity!.................................................................................................................................!13! Fisheries!...............................................................................................................................................!13! Tourism!................................................................................................................................................!14! Extractives!V!oil!and!gas!........................................................................................................................!14! Maritime!transport!and!trade!..............................................................................................................!15! Ecosystem!services!...............................................................................................................................!16! 2.5.1.! 2.5.2.! 2.5.3.! 2.5.4.! 2.5.5.! National!Governments!.........................................................................................................................!17! Intergovernmental!agreements,!conventions!and!programmes!.........................................................!18! Civil!Society!..........................................................................................................................................!19! Private!sector!.......................................................................................................................................!19! Biodiversity!management!and!conservation!.......................................................................................!20! 2.5.! Institutional!&!political!capital!.....................................................................................................!16! 3.! Long!term!change!in!the!NMC!............................................................................................................!20! 3.1.! Drivers!of!change!in!the!NMC!......................................................................................................!21! 3.1.1.! Opportunities!vs.!threats!.....................................................................................................................!22! 3.2.! Scenarios!of!change!in!the!NMC!..................................................................................................!23! 3.2.1.! Scenario!1)!Fuelled!Business!As!Usual!–!natural!gas/hydrocarbon!extraction.!...................................!24! 3.2.2.! Scenario!2)!Green/Blue!Economic!Development!.................................................................................!24! 3.3.! Natural!capital!.............................................................................................................................!25! 3.3.1.! Destruction!and!degradation!of!critical!habitats!.................................................................................!25! 3.3.2.! Overexploitation!of!resources!..............................................................................................................!26! 3.4.! Social!capital!................................................................................................................................!26! 3.4.1.! Population!growth!...............................................................................................................................!26! 3.4.2.! Urban!development!and!inlandVcoastal!migration!..............................................................................!28! 3.5.! Economic!capital!..........................................................................................................................!29! 3.5.1.! 3.5.2.! 3.5.3.! 3.5.4.! 3.5.5.! Fisheries!and!other!living!resources!.....................................................................................................!29! Natural!gas!and!energy!........................................................................................................................!30! Maritime!trade!.....................................................................................................................................!31! Coastal!development!and!pollution!.....................................................................................................!31! Tourism!................................................................................................................................................!32! 3.6.! Human!capital!..............................................................................................................................!33! 3.6.1.! Formal!education!.................................................................................................................................!33! 3.6.2.! Technical!and!advanced!capacity!building!...........................................................................................!33! 3.7.! Institutional!capital!......................................................................................................................!34! 3.8.! CrossVcutting!issues!.....................................................................................................................!35! 3.8.1.! Climate!change!.....................................................................................................................................!35! 3.8.2.! Security!and!piracy!...............................................................................................................................!35! 4.! A!Strategic!Framework!for!Securing!benefits!from!the!natural!assets!of!the!NMC!...........................!36! 4.1.! Foundations!for!an!initiative!.......................................................................................................!36! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 4.1.1.! 4.1.2.! 4.1.3.! 4.1.4.! 4.1.5.! 4.1.6.! 4.1.7.! 4.1.8.! Vision!....................................................................................................................................................!36! Approach!..............................................................................................................................................!36! Five!Capitals!..........................................................................................................................................!37! Green!and!blue!economic!approaches!.................................................................................................!37! Ecosystem!services!...............................................................................................................................!38! Five!Principles!for!sustainable!ocean!development!.............................................................................!39! Partnerships!..........................................................................................................................................!39! Marine!Spatial!Planning!for!the!NMC!...................................................................................................!39! 4.2.! A!Strategic!Framework!for!change!in!the!NMC!...........................................................................!40! 4.2.1.! A!working!vision!....................................................................................................................................!40! 4.2.2.! Theory!of!Change!and!Outcome!Mapping!............................................................................................!40! 4.2.3.! Five!Capitals!for!building!a!green!economic!approach/sustainable!ocean!use!....................................!40! 4.3.! Current!status!and!next!steps!......................................................................................................!41! 4.4.! The!scope!of!a!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!initiative.!..........................................................!41! 5.! References!..........................................................................................................................................!43! ! List of Tables Table! 1.! The! countries! and! higher! level! administrative! regions! and! around! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel.!...............................................................................................................................................!6! Table!2.!Population!statistics!for!northern!Mozambique!Channel!countries,!and!estimate!of!population! within!100!km!of!the!coastline!within!the!NMC.!...............................................................................!10! Table!3.!Family!planning!indicators!–!national!averages!and!coastal!provinces!and!regions!in!the!NMC.!12! Table!4.!Countries!bordering!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!(NMC)!and!the!extent!of!coverage!of!their! EEZs.!...................................................................................................................................................!17! Table!5.!Generic!root!causes!of!transVboundary!problems,!from!the!WIOLAB!and!ASCLMEVSWIOFP!TransV boundary!Diagnostic!analyses!(Sources:!Table!6,!WIOSAP!2009;!ASCLME/SWIOFP!2009)!...............!21! Table!6.!Key!areas!of!concern,!identified!by!the!WIOSAP!(2009)!..............................................................!22! Table!7.!Main!areas!of!concern,!identified!by!ASCLME/SWIOFP!(2009)!....................................................!22! Table!8.!Two!opposing!scenarios!for!future!outcomes!in!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel.!...............!25! Table! 9.! Population! growth! rates! derived! from! fig.! 10.! The! average! growth! rate! over! three! 15Vyear! periods! is! shown! (1995V2010,! 2050V2065! and! 2085V2100),! for! each! population! trend! (median,! ±80%,!±95%).!......................................................................................................................................!28! Table! 10.! Projections! for! population! in! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! for! 2050! and! 2100,! combining! the! analyses! from! Landscan! (section! 1.2.2)! and! UNDP! population! projections.! Note! V! statistics! for! Seychelles! are! not! included,! as! the! populations! bordering! the! Mozambique! Channel! are!administrative!units!in!the!Aldabra!group!of!islands.!..................................................................!29! Table! 11.! Some! case! studies/examples! of! institutional! mechanisms! selected! by! participating! states! in! governing!common!ocean!regions.!....................................................................................................!34! ! List of Figures Figure! 1.! The! northern! Mozambique! Channel,! showing! the! countries! and! provinceVlevel! boundaries,! principal!shallow!water!habitats,!and!bathymetry.!Approximate!positions!of!the!EEZs!of!countries! bordering!the!Channel!are!shown!for!illustration.!...............................................................................!5! Figure!2.!a)!Bathymetry,!b)!age!of!the!ocean!floor!and!c)!sediment!depths!of!the!Mozambique!Channel.!7! 2!! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! Figure!3.!a)!Schematic!diagram!of!the!oceanography!of!the!Mozambique!Channel,!showing!the!main! current! features,! from,! and! b)! relative! sea! surface! height! (legend! in! cm,! on! right)! showing! the! structure!of!the!Comoros!gyre!in!the!north!(circled),!and!antiVcyclonic!(antiVclockwise,!in!red)!and! cyclonic!(clockwise,!in!blue)!eddies!propagating!through!the!channel.!..............................................!8! Figure!4.!Diversity!patterns!of!corals!and!in!the!Indian!Ocean,!showing!the!importance!of!the!northern! Mozambique!Channel!as!a!center!of!diversity.!Left,!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!(purple!regions)!is!at! the! core! of! the! biogeographic! patterns! for! the! Indian! Ocean,! shown! by! the! central! position! of! regions! in! the! cluster! analysis! (Veron! et! al.! 2015)! and! Right! –! all! of! the! most! diverse! sites! of! the! WIO!are!in!the!NMC,!ordered!by!the!predicted!number!of!species!(Obura!2012).!.............................!9! Figure!5.!Population!within!100!km!of!the!coastline!in!the!Mozambique!channel/East!African!coast,!and! (right)!total!population!in!the!northern!and!southern!parts!of!the!channel.!Density!is!coded!in!the! map! from! yellow! (low)! to! red! (high,! see! legend! for! details).! Shading! in! the! sea! illustrates! a! population! proximity! index! in! the! sea,! indicative! of! human! pressure.! Population! numbers! for! the! Seychelles!and!the!French!Iles!Eparses!are!not!shown,!as!the!islands!adjacent!to!or!in!the!NMC!only! have!worker/administrator!populations.!...........................................................................................!10! Figure! 6.! A! selection! of! statistics! for! countries! of! the! WIO! ordered! by! HDI! from! left! to! right:! Human! Development! Index! (HDI)! and! Gross! National! Income! (GNI)! per! capita! on! the! left,! and! life! expectancy! at! birth,! mean! and! expected! years! of! schooling! on! the! right.! Source:! UN! population! statistics.!............................................................................................................................................!11! Figure!7.!Ecosystem!services!that!provide!benefits!to!society.!.................................................................!15! Figure!8.!Summary!of!estimated!ecosystem!service!values!in!the!Western!Indian!Ocean,!aggregated!at! administrative!levels.!Source:!Nunes!and!Ghermandi!(2014).!...........................................................!17! Figure! 9.! Protected! areas,! both! national! and! communityVrun,! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean.! Left:! MPA! polygons! from! the! World! Database! on! Protected! Areas,! emphasizing! the! size! of! recent! MPAs! in! Mozambique! and! France;! source:! UNEPVWCMC! Ocean! Data! Viewer;! Right:! location! of! MPAs! and! LMMAs,!emphasizing!the!number!of!individual!sites.!Source:!Rocliffe!et!al.!2014.!..........................!20! Figure!10.!Turning!adversity!or!problems!into!opportunities.!Source:!Lind!&!Kallström!(2014).!..............!23! Figure! 11.! Population! trends,! 1950! V! 2100! for! the! countries! of! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! (Source:! Population! Division! of! the! Department! of! Economic! and! Social! Affairs! of! the! United! Nations! Secretariat,! World! Population! Prospects:! The! 2012! Revision,! http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm)!..........................................................................................!27! Figure!12.!The!proposed!marine!highway,!restricting!transiting!vessels!to!a!20!nm!wide!corridor!passing! down!the!Mozambique!Channel.!.......................................................................................................!31! Figure!13.!The!five!capitals!of!the!Capitals!Approach,!adapted!from!the!Global!Partnership!for!Oceans’! Blue!Ribbon!Panel.!.............................................................................................................................!36! Figure! 14.! Two! primary! options! for! boundaries! of! a! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! initiative.! Yellow:! inner/smallest!possible!region!based!on!biophysical!characteristics;!red:!outer/largest!region!based! on!biophysical!and!administrative!characteristics.!............................................................................!42! ! 3! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! 4!! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! 1. The northern Mozambique Channel The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!(NMC)!is!bounded!by!northern!Madagascar,!northern!Mozambique! and! southern! Tanzania,! with! the! Comoro! archipelago! at! its! heart.! It! extends! from! about! 9o! S! near! Aldabra!Island!in!the!north,!to!17o!south!at!the!narrowest!part!of!the!Mozambique!Channel!in!the!south.! It! is! entirely! covered! by! the! Exclusive! Economic! Zones! of! the! countries! in! the! region! –! Mozambique,! Madagascar,! Tanzania,! Comoros,! Seychelles! and! France.! The! NMC! is! a! specialized! subVregion! of! the! Western!Indian!Ocean!(WIO),!which!is!at!the!western!extreme!of!the!vast!IndoVPacific.!The!distinctness! of!the!WIO!as!a!biogeographic!province!is!a!result!of!the!equatorial!currents!that!flow!across!the!Indian! Ocean!from!Indonesia,!along!with!aspects!of!exchange!of!waters!with!the!northern!regions!of!the!Red! Sea!and!Gulfs!(see!section!2.1).! The!NMC!countries!include!three!large!countries!V!Mozambique,!Madagascar,!Tanzania!–!each!with!3V4! administrative!provinces!bordering!the!subregion!(fig.!1,!Table!1).!Madagascar!is!the!4th!largest!island!in! the! world,! and! a! section! of! continental! crust! of! Gondwana,! and! in! other! aspects! of! size! and! marine! habitats!is!closer!to!the!mainland!countries.!By!contrast,!the!Comores!and! French!territories!are!small! islands.!The!islands!of!the!Comorian!archipelago!are!high!volcanic!islands!and!densely!populated,!while! the! other! islands! are! lowVlying! coral! banks! and! atolls,! with! no! resident! human! populations.! The! Seychelles!island!groups!of!Aldabra!and!Farquhar/Coëtivy!are!closely!adjacent!to!the!NMC!region.! ! Figure! 1.! The! northern! Mozambique! Channel,! showing! the! countries! and! provinceVlevel! boundaries,! principal! shallow!water!habitats,!and!bathymetry.!Approximate!positions!of!the!EEZs!of!countries!bordering!the!Channel!are! shown!for!illustration.! The! boundaries! of! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! are! not! yet! defined,! and! may! differ! based! on! different!features!–!the!geology!and!ocean!currents!give!one!particular!configuration,!biodiversity!and! ecosystem!patterns!may!give!another,!and!the!administrative,!economic!and!political!characteristics!of! the! coastal! states! may! indicate! another! set! of! boundaries.! The! precise! boundaries! of! the! region! encompassed!within!the!NMC!Initiative!will!be!determined!in!the!future,!when!the!countries!and!major! 5! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! partners! of! the! initiative! undergo! a! planning! process! that! will! include! boundaryVsetting.! For! the! moment,!a!loose!description!of!the!NMC!is!followed,!encompassing!the!region!shown!in!fig.!1,!extending! from! Mafia! Island! in! the! north,! to! the! Primeiras/Segundas! Islands! (Mozambique)! and! Barren! Islands! (Madagascar)!in!the!south.! Table!1.!The!countries!and!higher!level!administrative!regions!and!around!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel.! Comoros$ Islands!! Anjouan! Grande! (Ngazidja)! Moheli$ France$ Islands!! Isles!Glorieuses! Comores! Juan!de!Nova! Mayotte! Madagascar$ Regions!! Boeny! Diana! Melaky!! Sofia! Mozambique$ Provinces! Cabo!Delgado! Nampula! Seychelles$ Island!groups! Aldabra! Farquhar! Tanzania$ Provinces! Lindi! Mtwara! Pwani! ! The! coastal! people! and! economies! of! the! region! are! intimately! dependent! on! its! marine! and! coastal! resources,! through! fishing,! tourism! and! other! economic! activities,! making! its! management! and! protection!of!key!importance!to!the!countries.!This!document!characterizes!the!multiple!dimensions!of! the!region,!presenting!a!foundation!for!an!initiative!to!secure!the!assets!of!the!region!for!a!sustainable! future!for!all!the!peoples!of!the!region.! 2. Capitals and assets of the Northern Mozambique Channel “There!are!five!types!of!sustainable!capital!from!which!we!derive!the! goods!and!services!we!need!to!improve!the!quality!of!our!lives”.1! The! “Five! Capitals”,! developed! under! the! Sustainable! Livelihoods! Approach2! recognises! that! wealth! is! generated! from! a! range! of! complementary! assets,! across! multiple! dimensions! that! include! natural,! economic,!social,!human!and!political.!The!five!capitals!provide!a!synthetic!framework!for!summarising! the!assets!of!the!NMC!in!a!way!that!facilitates!development!of!a!strategy!for!sustainable!development! to!benefit!current!and!future!generations!of!people!dependent!on!the!channel.!This!section!introduces! these!assets!or!capitals!under!the!five!categories!of!natural,!social,!human,!economic!and!institutional,! setting!the!stage!for!later!sections!of!the!document!that!establish!a!roadmap!for!action!to!assure!this! sustainable!future.!! 2.1. Natural capital Natural!capital!(also!referred!to!as!environmental!or!ecological!capital)!is!the!natural!resources!(matter! and! energy)! and! processes! that! provide! products! and! deliver! services! to! people.! This! includes! the! physical! environment! (including! geological! and! oceanographic! features);! resources,! both! renewable! (e.g.!Fish,!wood,!crops,!water),!and!nonVrenewable!(fossil!fuels);!sinks!that!absorb!or!recycle!wastes!(e.g.! mangrove!forests,!oceans);!and!processes,!such!as!climate!regulation!and!the!carbon!cycle.! 2.1.1. Geology The! Mozambique! channel! is! bounded! by! deep! basins! to! the! north! (Somali! basin,! 5100! m! deep)! and! south!(Mozambique!!Basin,!5000!m!deep),!with!shallower!seafloor!3000!m!deep!at!its!centre3!(fig.!2a).! The!channel!is!an!ancient!rift,!formed!over!180!million!years!ago!when!Madagascar!(joined!to!Australia,! India! and! Antarctica)! separated! from! Africa! (fig.! 2b).! Unexpectedly,! it! is! the! oldest! part! of! the! Indian! Ocean,!and!one!of!the!oldest!passive!continental!margins!on!the!planet4.!By!contrast,!relatively!recent! geological! activity! has! uplifted! the! centre! of! the! channel,! a! result! of! faulting! along! the! Davie! Fracture! Zone,! creating! the! Sakalave! seamounts,! or! Davie! ridge! (running! northVsouth! between! about! 13! and! 18oS),! down! the! centre! of! the! channel5.! The! origins! or! the! ridge! appear! to! be! old! continental! or! lithospheric!fractures!left!over!by!the!initial!separation!of!Madagascar!from!the!African!continent.!While! currently! reaching! up! to! 300! m! below! sea! level,! peaks! on! the! Davies! Ridge! have! at! times! formed! emergent!islands!about!30V60!mya.! 6!! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! The!Comoro!archipelago!may!have!formed!from!these!lithospheric!fractures,!or!from!volcanic!activity! during!the!Miocene,!from!about!10!mya,!in!a!series!from!the!oldest!island!(Mayotte,!5.4!mya),!to!the! youngest!island!(Ngazidja/Grande!Comore,!≈!130,000!ya).!Currently,!there!is!a!shallow!subsea!mountain! to!the!west!of!Ngazidja!representing!the!next!island!under!construction!over!the!hotspot.!Older!volcanic! activity!is!associated!with!Montagne!d’Ambre,!in!N.!Madagascar,!as!well!as!Leven!Bank!and!Glorieuses! islands,!the!result!of!hotspot!activity!starting!about!15!mya.!! Hydrocarbon! deposits! in! the! channel! are! in! rock! formations! of! diverse! ages,! from! the! Jurassic! (>144! mya),! Cretaceous! (144V67! mya)! and! Cenozoic! (<! 67! my),! resulting! from! deposition! of! organic! matter! from!the!African!and!Madagascan!land!masses!in!river!sediments,!trapped!in!the!basins!and!shelves!in! the!channel.!The!depth!of!these!sediments!exceeds!3000!m!in!the!northern!and!southern!basins!of!the! channel6.!The!great!age!and!stability!of!the!seafloor!of!the!channel!may!be!a!key!feature!in!the!presence! of!these!abundant!deposits,!preventing!them!from!being!destroyed!or!altered!by!geological!activity.! a b c d Figure!2.!a)!Bathymetry,!b)!age!of!the!ocean!floor!and!c)!sediment!depths!of!the!Mozambique!Channel.! 2.1.2. Oceanography The!South!Equatorial!Current!(SEC)!is!the!principal!ocean!current!influencing!the!Western!Indian!Ocean,! hitting! the! Madagascar! coastline! just! below! its! northern! tip.! Here,! it! is! splits! south! and! north,! the! northern! flow! being! forced! to! curl! around! Cap! d’Ambre,! the! northern! tip! of! Madagascar,! imparting! a! rotation!that!interacts!with!the!ComorosVGlorieuses!islands!at!the!“Glorioso!Front”.!This!creates!a!series! of! clockwise! and! antiVclockwise! eddies! and! an! intermittent! gyre! around! the! Comoro! archipelago7! (fig.! 7! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 3b).!At!the!mainland!coast,!divergence!of!the!SEC!waters!to!the!north!and!south!occurs!within!a!zone!in! the! northern! part! of! the! Quirimbas! islands! in! Mozambique,! and! Lindi/Mtwara! in! S.! Tanzania.! The! Glorioso!Front!and!the!northern!limit!of!the!divergence!of!SEC!waters!in!southern!Tanzania!likely!define! the!northern!boundary!of!the!NMC!in!oceanographic!terms.! The!highly!energetic!and!variable!circular!currents8!(eddies,!approx.!100V300!km!across)!cause!water!to! flow!in!all!directions!–!north,!south,!east!and!west!V!though!with!a!net!southward!movement,!eventually! feeding!into!the!Agulhas!Current!off!South!Africa.!While!waters!may!flow!in!almost!any!direction!within! the!channel9,!the!shape!of!the!channel!and!dynamics!of!the!eddies!result!in!a!faster!southward!stream! adjacent!to!the!Mozambique!coastline!(see!fig.!3),!and!high!levels!of!connectivity!among!all!shorelines! within! the! channel.! In! oceanographic! terms! it! is! likely! that! the! narrowest! part! of! the! Mozambique! channel!at!about!17oS!results!in!different!currents!north!and!south!of!it,!forming!a!natural!boundary!for! the!boundary!between!the!northern!and!‘southern’!Mozambique!Channel.! a$ b$ ! Figure! 3.! a)! Schematic! diagram! of! the! oceanography! of! the! Mozambique! Channel,! showing! the! main! current! 10 features,!from ,!and!b)!relative!sea!surface!height!(legend!in!cm,!on!right)!showing!the!structure!of!the!Comoros! gyre! in! the! north! (circled),! and! antiVcyclonic! (antiVclockwise,! in! red)! and! cyclonic! (clockwise,! in! blue)! eddies! 11 propagating!through!the!channel .! Knowledge! of! the! oceanography! of! the! Mozambique! Channel! has! been! completely! transformed! by! research!in!the!last!15!years12,!with!the!result!that!now!it!is!understood!that!there!is!no!“Mozambique! Current”,! and! instead! the! energetic! dynamics! of! the! channel! and! the! resulting! ecosystem! and! productivity!consequences!may!constitute!grounds!for!description!of!a!‘large!marine!ecosystem’!(LME),! along!the!lines!used!by!the!original!identification!of!LMEs!in!the!1980s!and!90s13.!! The! currents! have! a! profound! influence! on! the! biological! oceanography! of! the! channel! including! the! productivity! and! distribution! of! phytoplankton! and! microVnekton! and! therefore! also! of! higher! trophic! levels!from!zooplankton!to!fish!to!megafauna!such!as!whales!and!whalesharks14.!The!northern!part!of! the!channel!is!on!the!annual!migration!routes!of!the!Indian!Ocean!tuna!stocks15,!though!it!is!not!known! at!present!how!this!may!be!related!to!the!oceanography.! 2.1.3. Marine biodiversity The!Mozambique!Channel!contains!a!large!proportion!(35!%)!of!the!entire!Indian!Ocean’s!coral!reefs16! (ca.! 11,000! km2! in! the! Channel17! ~! 4%! of! the! global! coral! reef! area)18,! ca.! 5%! of! world’s! mangrove! forests19!(ca.!7,300!m2!in!the!Channel)20!and!seagrass!beds.!Recent!studies!show!a!peak!in!the!diversity! of! reef! taxa! (including! hard! corals21! and! stomatopods22,! but! also! a! range! of! other! species)23,! in! the! 8!! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! northern!part!of!the!Mozambique!Channel,!above!levels!of!diversity!in!the!entire!Indian!Ocean!west!of! the!Andaman!Sea.!Detailed!surveys!of!corals!suggest!that!the!highest!diversity!sites!extend!from!Mafia! Island!to!Nacala!(Mozambique)!on!the!mainland!coast,!and!from!Diego!to!Nosy!Be!in!Madagascar,!with! lower!diversity!to!the!south!(Primeiras/Segundas!and!Barren!Islands,!in!Mozambique!and!Madagascar,! respectively)!and!north!(N.!Tanzania/S.!Kenya)!(fig.!4).! The!high!and!unique!biodiversity!of!the!NMC!is!hypothesised!to!be!a!result!of!high!levels!of!connectivity! due! to! the! South! Equatorial! Current! and! Mozambique! Channel! eddies,! the! retention! of! species! there! due! to! its! stable! coastlines! and! marine! climate,! and! an! evolutionary! history! preserving! unique! relict! species!from!the!Tethys!Sea!some!25V40!mya24.!Consequently,!the!northern!Mozambique!channel!may! be!the!second!peak!of!shallow!marine!biodiversity!in!the!world,!after!the!Coral!Triangle.!! ! ! Figure! 4.! Diversity! patterns! of! corals! and! in! the! Indian! Ocean,! showing! the! importance! of! the! northern! Mozambique!Channel!as!a!center!of!diversity.!Left,!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!(purple!regions)!is!at!the!core!of!the! biogeographic! patterns! for! the! Indian! Ocean,! shown! by! the! central! position! of! regions! in! the! cluster! analysis! (Veron!et!al.!2015)!and!Right!–!all!of!the!most!diverse!sites!of!the!WIO!are!in!the!NMC,!ordered!by!the!predicted! number!of!species!(Obura!2012).! 2.1.4. Flagship species/megafauna Owing! to! its! high! productivity,! the! Mozambique! Channel! is! one! of! the! most! important! breeding! and! foraging! areas! for! key! indicator! and! flagship! marine! species! and! functions! as! a! corridor! for! migratory! species,!such!as!sea!turtles,!sharks,!marine!mammals!and!tuna.!Surveys!of!the!eastern!and!central!parts! of!the!channel!have!shown!several!regions!of!prime!importance!for!foraging!megafauna25,!while!recent! work!on!the!Mozambique!coastline!has!revealed!high!concentrations!of!whale!sharks!and!manta!rays!in! the!south26,!and!humpback!whales!in!the!northern!part!of!the!channel.!! The!Mozambique!Channel!and!East!African!coast!are!also!the!prime!habitat!of!the!coelacanth27;!perhaps! because! the! old! and! steep! coastlines! (going! back! 180! million! years)! and! stable! configuration! of! the! Channel!have!provided!the!long!term!habitat!stability!needed!for!a!‘living!fossil’!of!this!type!to!survive! over! this! long! period.! The! combination! of! flagship! species! and! dynamics! of! the! Mozambique! Channel! were! among! the! key! features! that! make! the! channel! unique! globally,! and! potentially! meeting! the! standards!of!outstanding!universal!value!required!for!World!Heritage!recognition28.! 9! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 2.2. Social capital Social! capital! refers! to! organisation! of! society! and! economic! production! by! human! relationships,! partnerships! and! co4operation.! This! can! include! communities! and! cultural! networks,! families! and! kin! relationships,!communication!channels,!businesses,!trade!unions,!schools!and!voluntary!organisations.!It! can!also!include!the!set!of!social!norms,!values!and!trust!that!define!how!well!people!interact!with!one! another.! 2.2.1. Population and demographics ! Table!2.!Population!statistics!for!northern!Mozambique!Channel!countries,!and!estimate!of!population!within!100! km!of!the!coastline!within!the!NMC.! Country! Tanzania$ Mozambique$ Madagascar$ Comoros$ Mayotte$ Total! Population!(2010)! National! 44,973,000! 23,967,000! 21,080,000! 683,000! 204,000! 90,909,010! Growth!rate! (%)! 2.9! 2.9! 3.2! 2.7! 3.7! 3.1! %!<!20!yrs! 55! 56! 54! 52! 55! 54.4! Population!V!Northern! Mozambique!Channel! 1,500,000! 3,900,000! 3,500,000! 720,000! 210,000! 9,830,000! ! ! ! Figure!5.!Population!within!100!km!of!the!coastline!in!the!Mozambique!channel/East!African!coast,!and!(right)!total! population!in!the!northern!and!southern!parts!of!the!channel.!Density!is!coded!in!the!map!from!yellow!(low)!to!red! (high,!see!legend!for!details).!Shading!in!the!sea!illustrates!a!population!proximity!index!in!the!sea,!indicative!of! human!pressure.!Population!numbers!for!the!Seychelles!and!the!French!Iles!Eparses!are!not!shown,!as!the!islands! adjacent!to!or!in!the!NMC!only!have!worker/administrator!populations.! The!total!population!of!the!countries!bordering!the!Mozambique!channel!were!estimated!at!90.9!million! in! 2010! (Table! 2)29,! and! projected! to! grow! by! 2014! to! 104.5! million.! Population! growth! rates! are! relatively!high!in!all!the!countries,!the!mean!of!3.1%!resulting!in!doubling!of!national!population!every! 24! years.! The! countries’! populations! are! youthful,! with! >50%! under! 20! years! of! age.! According! to! the! demographic!transition!model30,!east!and!southern!African!countries!are!transitioning!from!stage!III!to! stage!IV,!where!high!mortality!rates!have!declined!quickly!due!to!improved!opportunities!and!medicine,! but! fertility! rates! remain! high! for! some! time.! As! a! result! of! this,! and! of! a! large! population! of! children! maturing! into! young! adults! in! the! next! decade,! population! growth! is! likely! to! remain! high! for! several! decades!to!come.! ! 10! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! Information! on! demographic! patterns! within! the! coastal! zones! of! the! WIO! are! only! estimated,! however,! as! statistics! are! reported! nationally.! About! 60! million! people! are! estimated! to! live! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean’s! coastal! zone31.! ! For! the! Mozambique! channel! itself,! an! estimate! of! 15! million! living! in! the! “coastal! zone”! has! been! made,! which! corresponds! to! a! modeled! estimate! of! 16.7! million! living!within!100!km!of!the!coast32.!The!northern!part!of!the!channel!has!a!larger!population,!with!9.8! million!people,!compared!to!6.7!million!in!the!south!of!the!channel!(fig.!5).! 2.2.2. Income and welfare The!countries!of!the!Mozambique!channel!have!the!lowest!Human!Development!Index!(HDI)!and!Gross! National!Income!(GNI)!among!the!countries!of!the!WIO,!and!have!a!low!life!expectancy!(fig.!6).!Poverty! levels! in! the! coastal! populations! of! the! NMC! are! extremely! high.! For! example,! 92%! of! Madagascar’s! population!lives!on!less!than!$2!per!day,!with!remote!coastal!regions!being!among!the!poorest!on!the! island33.!Many!of!the!coastal!communities!throughout!the!NMC!region!are!highly!dependent!on!marine! ecosystems!for!their!survival.!Thus!local!coastal!communities!arguably!have!the!greatest!vested!interest! in! the! health! of! the! NMC’s! ecosystems,! since! their! basic! ability! to! feed! themselves! and! clothe! and! educate!their!children!is!intimately!bound!with!the!sustainability!of!these!coastal!resources.! ! Figure!6.!A!selection!of!statistics!for!countries!of!the!WIO!ordered!by!HDI!from!left!to!right:!Human!Development! Index! (HDI)! and! Gross! National! Income! (GNI)! per! capita! on! the! left,! and! life! expectancy! at! birth,! mean! and! 34 expected!years!of!schooling!on!the!right.!Source:!UN!population!statistics .! 2.3. Human capital Human! capital! includes! the! knowledge,! skills,! intellectual! outputs,! motivation! and! capacity! for! relationships! of! the! individual.! It! can! also! include! aspects! such! as! health,! as! well! as! quality! of! life! and! elements!such!as!joy!and!spirituality.!Through!knowledge!and!the!freedom!to!explore,!the!capacity!for! innovation!and!generation!of!new!ideas!is!included!here.! 11! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 2.3.1. Education The!development!of!individual!members!of!society,!who!can!contribute!to!advances!in!that!society!is!a! critical! component! of! development.! In! relation! to! this,! education,! health! and! the! rights! of! people! are! fundamental!to!societal!welfare.!Given!the!focus!of!this!initiative!on!sustainability,!two!key!aspects!can! be! considered! as! indicative! of! the! region:! education/training! levels! and! opportunities! and! aspects! of! health!related!to!population!growth.!! Education! levels! in! the! NMC! region! are! likely! lower! than! national! averages! (see! fig.! 6),! and! there! are! currently!just!4!higher!learning!(university!level)!institutions!in!the!NMC!(Universidad!de!Lurio,!Pemba,! Mozambique;! University! of! Comoros,! Moroni,! Comoros;! University! of! Mahajanga! and! University! of! Diego,!Madagascar).!Of!relevance!to!the!marine!systems!of!the!NMC!the!Centre!National!de!Recherche! en!Oceanographie!(CNRO)!in!Nosy!Be,!Madagascar,!was!among!the!first!marine!research!institutes!in!the! entire! WIO! in! the! 1970s,! however! has! faced! significant! staffing! and! funding! challenges! in! recent! decades.! The! Centro! de! Pesquisa! do! Ambiene! Marinho! e! Coseiro! (CEPAM)! in! Pemba,! Mozambique,! a! research! and! training! center! established! under! the! Environment! Coordination! Ministry! (MICOA),! has! faced! chronic! shortages! of! research! finance.! While! Mozambique! has! a! strong! focus! in! its! higher! education! system! on! fisheries,! the! other! countries! of! the! NMC! have! a! strong! terrestrial! bias! in! higher! education! systems,! resulting! in! an! unmet! need! for! technical! staff! at! all! levels! of! marine! management! and!governance.! 2.3.2. Health Human! health! is! intimately! linked! with! environmental! health35,! particularly! in! lowVincome! settings! where! people! derive! much! of! their! livelihood! from! the! environment,! and! live! in! close! contact! with! it.! The!PopulationVHealthVEnvironment!(PHE)!approach!is!relevant,!in!that!it!works!on!the!premise!that!the! three!sectors!are!interdependent,!and!that!interventions!in!one!must!consider!and!develop!outcomes!in! the!others!for!maximum!benefit.!Poor!environmental!management!in!high!density!populations!in!NMC! urban!areas!will!lead!to!poor!public!health,!and!vice!versa.! 36 Table!3.!Family!planning!indicators!–!national!averages!and!coastal!provinces!and!regions!in!the!NMC. ! Province$/$region$$ Total$fertility$rate$ Mozambique$$ Nampula! Cabo!Delgado!! Tanzania$$ Mtwara!! Lindi!! Comoros$$ Madagascar$$ Diana!! Sofia!! Boeny! 5.9! 6.1! 6.6! 5.4! 4.4! ! 4.3! 4.8! 3.7! 4.4! 4.5! Wanted$fertility$ rate$ 5.1! 5.1! 6.3! 4.7! 4.0! ! 3.2! 4.2! 3.2! 3.4! 3.9! Contraceptive$prev.$ rate$ 11.3%! 5.0%! 2.9%! 27.4%! 36.8%! 38.5%! 14.2%! 29.2%! 29.1%! 17.9%! 34.4%! Unmet$family$ planng$needs$ 28.5%! 25.0%! 12.1%! 25.3%! 23.9%! 23.7%! 31.6%! 18.9%! 19.7%! 17.2%! 17.0%! ! Human!population!dynamics!are!a!key!driver!of!change!in!all!other!sectors!(see!population!estimates!in! 1.2.1)! and! deserve! particular! attention,! particularly! fertility! rates! and! reproductive! health.! Table! 3! summaries!the!unmet!family!planning!needs!of!women!living!in!coastal!provinces!/!regions!within!the! NMC.!More!than!1!in!5!women!in!the!NMC!who!would!like!to!space!or!limit!their!births!are!not!currently! using! any! contraceptive! method,! and! as! few! as! 2.9%! of! women! are! currently! using! a! modern! contraceptive!method!despite!wanting!fewer!children!than!they!are!having!(see!Cabo!Delgado).!To!steer! population! growth! towards! the! median! to! low! trends! projected! by! the! UN,! aggressive! outreach! and! increases!in!access!to!family!planning!tools!by!women!will!be!necessary.! ! 12! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! 2.4. Economic capital Economic! capital! includes! the! financial! and! material! goods! and! infrastructure! that! contribute! to! production!and!service!provision.!It!can!include!many!things,!such!as!financial!instruments!and!reserves,! buildings!and!manufactured!goods,!infrastructure!(transport!networks,!communications,!waste!disposal! systems),!and!technologies!(from!simple!tools!to!ICT!and!biotechnology).! 2.4.1. Economic activity Economic!growth!in!coming!decades!in!east!and!southern!Africa!is!expected!to!be!among!the!highest!in! the! world37.! This! is! due! to! a! number! of! factors:! it! is! the! last! major! world! region! with! low! levels! of! development!(i.e.!a!high!potential!for!growth),!it!is!the!last!major!world!region!to!face!a!large!population! boom!(ie.!a!growing!market!for!corporations),!the!economy!of!the!region!is!transforming!from!primarily! agricultural,!fishery!and!tourism!sectors,!to!a!more!diverse!mix!including!manufacturing,!mining,!service! and! information! sectors,! and! the! natural! assets! of! the! region! are! not! yet! significantly! depleted,! new! ones!are!being!discovered,!and!technological!innovation!will!make!more!assets!accessible.! The! economic! importance! and! potential! of! the! NMC,! as! a! future! driver! of! national! and! regional! development!on!a!scale!not!previously!realized!in!East!Africa,!is!emerging.!Most!directly,!this!is!due!to! the! natural! gas! reserves! recently! discovered! in! the! Channel,! though! it! is! also! supported! by! the! high! diversity!and!productivity!of!other!natural!assets!(such!as!fisheries,!coral!reefs!etc,!see!section!1.1)!in!the! channel,!and!growing!capitalisation!of!these!assets.!! Economic! activity! throughout! the! NMC! region,! from! artisanal/subsistence! to! large! scale! industrial,! is! directly!dependent!upon!the!natural!resources!in!the!region.!On!the!whole,!the!economies!of!the!region! are! still! at! low! levels! of! development,! with! low! scores! for! most! important! human! and! economic! development!indicators!(fig.!5).!The!total!value!of!the!NMC!economy!is!not!currently!known,!though!a! recent!estimate!of!the!economic!value!of!the!coastal!ecosystems!of!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!returned! a!value!of!roughly!US$!25!billion!per!year,!with!fisheries!and!tourism!contributing!most!in!terms!of!direct! financial!benefits38.! 2.4.2. Fisheries The! rich! fisheries! in! the! Channel,! particularly! obvious! in! the! northern! part,! including! major! prawn! fisheries! and! a! regional! tuna! stock,! are! exploited! not! only! by! domestic! fishing! industries! but! also! by! foreign! fishing! fleets.! However! this! is! not! always! to! the! benefit! of! the! countries! of! the! region.! Furthermore,! nearVshore! fish! stocks! support! centuriesVold! artisanal! fishing! industries! and! significantly! contribute!to!the!livelihoods!and!food!security!of!the!region’s!population.! Marine!resources!account!for!approximately!5%!of!the!GDP!of!all!South!Western!Indian!Ocean!(SWIO)! Island!States39!(around!8%!for!Comoros,!6%!for!Madagascar!and!9%!for!the!Seychelles),!with!potential! for! socioVeconomic! improvement! with! appropriate! fisheries! management.! While! these! numbers! are! modest,!the!low!level!of!technology!in!smallVscale!fisheries!translates!to!significant!employment!in!the! fisheries! sector,! with! many! households! gaining! their! principal! livelihood! from! fishing.! For! example,! approximately!8500!people!are!directly!employed!in!fishing!in!the!Comoros,!100,000!in!Madagascar,!and! 2000! in! the! Seychelles40.! In! Madagascar! for! example,! smallVscale! artisanal! and! subsistence! fishers! accounted!for!72%!of!total!catches!in!the!2000s41.! The!tuna!fisheries!of!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!alone!are!valued!at!over!2!billion!US!Dollars!per!year42,! and! for! the! Seychelles! tuna! fisheries! account! for! about! 83%! of! exports43.! The! total! value! of! tuna! and! other!species!in!the!NMC!is!not!yet!known,!with!great!potential!for!development.!Island!States!such!as! Comoros!or!Madagascar!have!low!or!negligible!industrial!capacity!to!exploit!the!tropical!tunas!in!their! waters,! and! currently! rely! on! fisheries! agreements! with! long! distance! fishing! nations44.! One! of! the! biggest! challenges! is! to! maximize! socioVeconomic! returns! from! the! tuna! fishery! to! the! region,! and! ensure!that!the!appropriate!management!measures!are!taken!to!allow!for!sustainable!exploitation.! 13! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! The! shrimp! fishery! is! well! developed! in! the! region,! particularly! in! Madagascar! and! Mozambique45.! In! Madagascar,!shrimp!represented!68%!of!seafood!exports!(in!terms!of!value)!in!2008,!and!about!7%!of!all! Malagasy! exports! between! 2008! and! 2012.! However,! shrimp! stocks! are! showing! signs! of! overexploitation,!with!catches!decreasing!by!half!from!8645!t!in!2002!to!4015!t!in!2011.!Industrial!fleet! capacity!also!declined,!from!61!vessels!in!2006!to!30!in!2010.!This!overVexploitation!is!a!threat!for!the! industry,! but! also! for! the! local! communities! depending! on! the! fishery! (in! Ambaro! Bay,! northwest! Madagascar,! a! stretch! of! 350! km! of! mangrove! coastline! has! an! estimated! 37,000! fishers).! One! of! the! biggest!challenges!in!this!fishery!is!related!to!the!complex!life!cycle!of!prawns,!migrating!between!the! open! sea! where! adults! are! caught! by! industrial! trawlers,! and! nearshore! mangroveVrich! areas,! where! smaller!individuals!and!juveniles!are!caught!by!artisanal!gears.!! Signs! of! overexploitation! of! marine! resources! are! spread! through! the! region,! while! many! local! communities! in! these! countries,! which! are! amongst! the! poorest! in! the! world,! depend! on! seafood! for! their!food!security!and!livelihood.!The!region!therefore!offers!a!good!opportunity!to!further!develop!a! communityVbased!approach!for!local!fisheries!management.! 2.4.3. Tourism Tourism! in! Africa! has! traditionally! focused! on! inland! and! wildlife! features,! though! new! government! policies!are!emphasizing!diversification!and!growth!in!coastal!tourism!attractions!and!marketing,!e.g.!for! sports!fishing,!beach,!reef!diving!and!ecotourism.!In!Tanzania,!a!Southern!Coast!and!Mafia!Island!Zone! that! is! partially! linked! to! a! more! traditional! Southern! Wildlife! Area! that! includes! the! Selous,! is! being! promoted.!Madagascar!has!a!tourism!development!strategy!focused!on!‘economic!poles!of!attraction’! with! the! primary! areas! being! in! the! northwest! on! the! island! of! Nosy! Be! and! the! regional! capital! Antsiranana! (Diego).! Mozambique! has! identified! priority! areas! and! zones! with! potential! for! development!(Priority!Areas!for!Tourism!Investment!V!PATis).!Increasingly,!national!policies!call!for!lower! volume!higher!quality!tourism!that!is!less!damaging!to!local!cultures!and!biodiversity,!while!also!offering! new!opportunities!for!local!coVmanagement!where!this!is!appropriate.! Mafia! Island! (Tanzania)! was! the! first! marine! park! in! the! region,! created! in! 1994.! However! it! still! only! manages! to! attract! fewer! than! 1,000! visitors! per! year.! More! recently,! major! new! marine! parks! for! biodiversity!and!tourism!have!been!designated,!such!as!the!Mnazi!Bay!and!Ruvuma!Estuary!Marine!Park! (Tanzania,! 2000),! Quirimbas! National! park! (Mozambique! 2002),! Moheli! Marine! Park! (Comoros! 2001),! Nosy! Tanikely! (Madagascar,! 2011),! Glorieuses! (2012,! designated! as! a! Strict! Nature! Reserve),! Mayotte! Natural! Marine! Park! (2010,! including! the! whole! EEZ! of! 68,381! km2),! Europa! (1975),! the! Primeiras! and! Segundas!Islands!as!Mozambique’s!newest!and!largest!MPA46,!and!the!Barren!Islands!as!Madagascar’s! newest! and! largest! protected,! under! a! coVmanagement! regime! with! fishers47.! Increases! in! national! protected! areas! have! been! matched! by! interest! in! crossVborder! collaborations,! such! as! between! Tanzania! and! Mozambique! proposed! by! the! TRANSMAP! project! in! 200548! and! the! TransVFrontier! Conservation!Area!(TCFA)!that!was!the!precursor!to!the!initiative!presented!here49.! While! the! region! has! faced! significant! challenges! that! have! impeded! tourism,! such! as! civil! strife! and! insecurity,! the! first! steps! of! development! can! be! astronomically! fast! –! for! example,! in! 2003! tourism! accounted!for!just!over!1%!of!GDP!in!Mozambique,!but!increased!to!37%!by!2005;!between!1990!and! 2008! the! number! of! international! arrivals! in! Madagascar! rose! by! an! average! of! 11%! annually50.! Other! countries!have!yet!to!gain!from!such!growth,!such!as!the!Comoros,!which!in!2006!earned!an!estimated! USD! 39! million! from! 29,000! arrivals.! Development! aid! has! played! a! significant! role! in! developing! the! natural!assets!and!infrastructure!for!tourism,!such!as!in!the!Quirimbas!National!Park!(Mozambique)!and! the!Moheli!Marine!Park!(Comoros).!! 2.4.4. Extractives - oil and gas The! sedimentary! plains! occupying! parts! of! the! seafloor! of! the! Mozambique! Channel! have! long! been! recognized!as!having!potential!to!store!trapped!hydrocarbons,!with!exploration!for!oil!and!gas!starting!in! the! 1950s51.! However! it! is! only! since! 2010! that! natural! gas! discoveries! in! the! Rovuma! basin! (Cabo! ! 14! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! Delgado! province)! have! been! large! enough! to! support! significant! investment! in! extraction! and! processing! infrastructure.! Anadarko! (an! American! company)! and! Eni! (an! Italian! Company)! have! led! exploration! activities! in! their! offshore! license! areas! called! Area! 1! and! Area! 4,! containing! the! Prosperidade! and! Golfinho/Atum! Complexes,! or! gas! fields52.! These! fields! hold! about! 17V30! Tcf! (trillion! cubic! feet)! and! 15V35! Tcf! of! recoverable! gas! resources,! respectively.! Two! smaller! fields! (Mamba! and! Coral!fields)!contain!roughly!62!Tcf!and!13!Tcf!of!gas,!respectively.!! To! extract! and! process! these! gas! fields,! the! two! companies! have! oscillated! between! joint! and! independent! processing! plants,! in! response! to! multiple! drivers! including! oil! prices! and! government! guarantees.! One! of! the! options! considered,! a! shared! onshore! LNG! facility! at! Palma! estimated! to! cost! USD!$50!billion,!would!be!the!largest!LNG!facility!yet!to!be!constructed!in!the!world.!Early!projections!by! Anadarko!were!to!start!selling!LNG!in!2018,!with!production!reaching!full!operational!capacity!by!2030V 32,!though!these!timelines!may!be!delayed!with!the!decrease!in!oil!prices!in!late!2014.!! So!far,!most!of!the!natural!gas!discoveries!are!off!northern!Mozambique!and!southern!Tanzania!in!the! blocks!roughly!due!west!of!the!RovumaVRufiji!region,!but!further!exploration!for!both!oil!and!gas!is!also! under!way!off!the!coast!of!Madagascar,!the!Comoros,!and!in!the!French!Iles!Éparses.!It!is!possible!that! additional! massive! finds! may! be! made.! These! discoveries! could! be! “game! changers”! for! the! region’s! economies!and!development.!This!puts!the!Mozambique!Channel!area!on!the!threshold!of!a!resource! driven! ‘bonanza’! period,! which! will! require! comprehensive! preparations! to! ensure! both! sustainable! economic!benefits!and!environmental!protection.!! Virtually!the!entire!Mozambique!Channel!coastline!has!been!divided!into!exploration!blocks53,!including! areas! currently! having! protected! status,! wildlife! migration! corridors,! areas! demarcated! for! tourism! development!and!areas!that!support!fish/!prawn!breeding!and!nurseries! V!mangroves,!coral!reefs,!sea! grass! beds,! lagoons! etc.! The! Environmental! Impact! Assessment! of! the! Anadarko/Eni! consortium,! including!mining,!onshore!processing!and!transfer!to!LNG!carriers!was!completed!in!September!201354,! initiating! the! process! within! Mozambique! to! consider! environmental! and! social! impacts! and! how! to! mitigate! them.! With! the! potential! for! additional! large! hydrocarbon! finds! throughout! the! Channel,! a! regional! strategic! approach! will! be! essential! to! manage! impacts! at! this! scale,! and! the! application! of! Strategic! Environmental! Assessments! to! coordinate! among! country! policies! is! being! advocated! by! the! Nairobi!Convention55.! The! fossil! fuel! extraction! industry! has! the! potential! to! drive! economic! expansion! in! the! region! for! decades! to! come56,! drawing! people! into! the! region! attracted! by! jobs! and! support! services! for! the! growing!industry!and!urban!centres.!Population!growth!estimates!presented!in!section!3.4.1!don’t!take! this! factor! into! account,! nor! is! there! any! current! analysis! of! the! impact! of! increasing! wealth! and! GDP! from! the! oil/gas! sector! on! demand! and! impacts! to! the! environment.! Concommittant! with! oil/gas! expansion!will!be!an!increase!in!shipping!and!dredging!activities,!as!well!as!patterns!of!change!such!as! through!growth!of!development!hubs!in!urban!centres,!fuelling!ruralVurban!migration.! Extraction!of!other!minerals!from!the!seabed!of!the!Mozambique!Channel!has!not!received!significant! investment! or! exploration,! due! to! generally! disappointing! results.! The! relatively! passive! nature! of! the! coastlines!and!seabed!may!contribute!to!the!lack!of!exploitable!minerals!on!the!seafloor,!in!contrast!to! the!focus!for!resources!such!as!Manganese!nodules!near!active!spreading!ridges.! 2.4.5. Maritime transport and trade The!Mozambique!Channel!forms!an!important!trade!route!from!southern!Africa!and!the!South!Atlantic! to! and! from! the! Indian! Ocean.! The! Channel! is! a! strategic! trade! route! for! the! Southern! Africa! Development! Community! (SADC),! carrying! more! than! half! of! the! region’s! merchandise! exports! and! imports.!Each!of!the!countries!bordering!the!northern!Mozambique!Channel!has!at!least!one!significant! sea! port,! in! some! cases! more:! Mtwara! (Tanzania),! Nacala,! Pemba! and! Angoche! (Mozambique),! Mahajanga! and! Antsiranana! (Madagascar),! and! on! each! of! the! Comorian! islands! –! Moroni! (Grande! Comore),! Fomboni! (Mohéli),! Mutsamudu! (Anjouan)! and! Dzaoudzi! (Mayotte).! There! are! also! smaller! ports!that!are!important!in!regional!trade!due!to!poor!road!networks!on!the!mainland!and!Madagascar! 15! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! coasts,!and!as!primary!linkages!among!the!Comorian!islands.!For!Madagascar,!an!estimated!60%!of!all! vessel!transport!is!international!(longVdistance)!with!40%!related!to!domestic!portVtoVport!transport.! The!Mozambique!Channel!is!important!in!global!terms,!for!vessels!taking!a!sheltered!route!to/from!the! Cape!of!Good!Hope!–!30%!of!global!tanker!traffic!passes!through!the!Channel,!carrying!significant!risk!of! oil!spills!and!environmental!damage.!Comoros!is!on!this!route,!with!more!than!500!million!tonnes!of!oil! passing!close!by,!representing!more!than!5,000!tankerVvoyages!per!year.!To!regulate!this,!the!countries! of! the! region! participated! in! the! design! of! a! maritime! highway! through! the! IMO 57,! though! entry! into! force! of! this! highway! has! not! received! its! final! acceptance.! With! the! development! of! oil! and! gas! exploitation!in!the!Channel,!the!scale!of!shipping!operations!will!be!significantly!increased,!with!existing! plans!for!construction!of!an!LNG!facility!on!the!northern!coast!of!the!Cabo!Delgado!Province,!adding!a! node!for!maritime!trade!at!Palma.!In!addition,!increasing!inland!extraction!of!coal!and!other!minerals!in! Mozambique! will! drive! expansion! of! the! ports! of! Nacala! and! Pemba,! with! similar! expansion! likely! to! occur!in!the!future!for!Madagascan!mineral!exports.! 2.4.6. Ecosystem services Many! of! the! economic! sectors! above! depend! on! natural! assets,! which! are! either! renewable,!so!need!management!to!ensure! their! regeneration! capacity! is! not! undermined,! and/or! are! vulnerable! to! impacts! from! use.! In! addition,! there! are! many!indirect!or!intangible!benefits!derived! from! nature! that! are! difficult! to! include! in! standard! economic! analyses.! zThe! concept! of! ecosystem! services! in! four! main! categories! provides! tools! for! assessing! the! comparative!value!of!multiple!very!different! natural! assets,! and! the! need! to! maintain! their! health! and! natural! resilience! to! provide! for! future! generations! (fig.! 7)! 58.! Figure!7.!Ecosystem!services!that!provide!benefits!to!society.!! This! approach! has! also! driven! increasing! interest! in! Natural! Capital59,! where! the! value! of! nature! as! the! foundation! for! economic! activity! is! recognized! and! put! in! an! economic! framework,!whereby!the!goal!is!to!enhance!and!increase!the!value!of!capital,!not!reduce!or!damage!it.!A! recent! global! analysis! calculates! that! 70%! of! wealth! generated! from! the! oceans! is! derived! from! ecosystem!services!(as!compared!to!minerals/nonVliving!resources)60.! A! recent! study! on! the! countries! surrounding! the! Mozambique! Channel! explored! the! comparative! ecosystem! service! values! in! six! key! sectors:! coastal! tourism,! coastal! recreation,! fisheries,! mariculture,! carbon!sequestration!and!coastal!protection61.!Values!are!estimated!at!the!level!of!administrative!units! (provinces)!in!each!country,!reflecting!the!coarse!levels!of!data!currently!available!(though!even!at!this! level!gaps!are!apparent),!and!provide!a!first!indication!of!relative!value!among!sectors.!Thus,!fisheries! and!mariculture!value!(ie.!provisioning!services)!are!most!highly!capitalized!in!NW!Madagascar,!coastal! tourism!is!less!developed!within!the!NMC!than!in!other!parts!of!the!countries!(e.g.!SW!Madagascar),!and! Mozambique! shows! large! differences! in! coastal! protection! (regulating! services)! among! provinces.! The! analysis!gives!a!strong!foundation!for!further!work,!and!in!particular!to!identifying!gaps!and!approaches! to!improve!information!on!ecosystem!service!provision!and!used!in!the!different!countries!of!the!NMC,! and!to!generate!this!at!finer!resolution!to!facilitate!Marine!Spatial!Planning!in!the!initiative.! 2.5. Institutional & political capital Institutional! capital! refers! to! the! governance! capabilities! and! resources! that! are! necessary! to! govern! and! allocate! rights,! access! to! and! use! of! the! other! capitals.! Though! this! may! be! considered! a! part! of! ! 16! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! social!capital,!in!a!multiVcountry!initiative!such!as!this,!institutional!relationships!among!countries,!and! among!varied!stakeholders,!are!of!critical!importance,!and!in!themselves!can!be!viewed!as!a!primary! asset.! Reflecting! the! three! main! partners! necessary! for! this! partnership,! this! section! outlines! government,!civil!society!and!private!sector!institutional!assets.! ! ! ! Figure! 8.! Summary! of! estimated! ecosystem! service! values! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean,! aggregated! at! administrative!levels.!Source:!Nunes!and!Ghermandi!(2014).! 2.5.1. National Governments The!NMC!is!bordered!by!five!countries!–!Comoros,!France!(French!territories!including!Mayotte!and!the! Iles!Éparses),!Madagascar,!Mozambique!and!Tanzania!–!!with!some!degree!of!overlap!with!a!sixth!–!the! Seychelles,! depending! on! the! eventual! definition! of! the! NMC! region! (Table! 4).! The! entire! Comoros! territory!and!EEZ!are!contained!within!the!NMC!region,!while!for!all!the!other!countries,!only!a!part!of! their! territories! and! EEZs! are! within! the! NMC! (see! fig.! 1).! National! institutions! in! the! NMC! countries! originate!in!a!diverse!set!of!legal!systems,!including!English,!Arabic/Islamic,!French!and!Portuguese!(and! Dutch)62,! and! four! major! languages! are! spoken! –! French,! Portuguese,! Swahili! and! Malagasy.! The! populations! of! the! countries! have! diverse! origins! including! multiple! African! ethnic! groups! and! others! from!the!Middle!East,!SE!Asia!and!Europe.!As!a!result,!there!is!significant!variation!in!policies!across!the! countries,!making!regional!integration!a!challenge.!! Table!4.!Countries!bordering!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!(NMC)!and!the!extent!of!coverage!of!their!EEZs.! Country!! Coverage!in!NMC! NC! IOC! SADC! COMESA! Comoros$$ Whole!EEZ! ✔! ✔! ! ! France$$ !Mayotte,!Eparses!Islands! ✔ ✔ Madagascar$$ Partial,!northwest!coast! ✔! ✔! ✔! ✔! Mozambique$$ Partial,!north!coast! ✔! ! ✔! ✔! Seychelles$$ Partial,!Aldabra!group! ✔! ✔! ✔! ✔! Tanzania$$ Partial,!south!coast! ✔! ! ✔! ✔! ! 17! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 2.5.2. Intergovernmental agreements, conventions and programmes A! broad! overview! of! national! institutional! structures,! and! regional! agreements! and! conventions,! are! provided!in!the!ASCLME!Transboundary!Diagnostic!Analysis63,!and!listed!here:! Intergovernmental!Agreements:!The!Convention!for!the!Protection,!Management!and!Development!of! the! Marine! and! Coastal! Environment! of! the! Eastern! African! Region! (The! Nairobi! Convention),! Indian! Ocean!Tuna!Commission!(IOTC),!South!west!Indian!Ocean!Fisheries!Commission!(SWIOFC),!South!Indian! Ocean!Fisheries!Agreement!(SIOFA),!Indian!Ocean!MOU!on!Port!State!Control! Regional!Economic!Organisations:!African!Union!(AU),!The!Southern!African!Development!Community! (SADC),! The! Common! Market! for! Eastern! and! Southern! Africa! (COMESA),! the! East! African! Community! (EAC),!Indian!Ocean!Commission!(COI/IOC)! Two!key!regional!institutions!are!relevant!to!marine/maritime!governance!in!the!NMC!given!their!focus! on!the!marine!environment:!! The!Nairobi!Convention!V!was!ratified!by!the!ten!countries!of!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!region!in!1985,! emerging!from!the!UNEP!Regional!Seas!programme.!It!is!coordinated!at!a!Secretariat!hosted!by!UNEP! under! the! Division! of! Environmental! Policy! Implementation! (DEPI).! It! works! through! national! focal! points,! and,! as! needed,! various! thematic! and! technical! task! forces! (including! a! Coral! Reef! Task! Force,! Marine!Turtle!Task!Force,!group!on!Marine!Protected!Areas!and!a!Legal!and!Technical!Working!Group).! The! Secretariat! also! works! closely! with! collaborating! partners! such! as! regional! NGOs! and! various! national!and!research!institutions.!! The!Indian!Ocean!Commission$V!was!created!in!1984!by!the!General!Agreement!of!Victoria,!Seychelles.! It!is!an!intergovernmental!organization!between!Comoros,!Madagascar,!Mauritius,!France!(on!behalf!of! Réunion)!and!the!Seychelles!to!encourage!diplomatic,!economic!and!commercial!cooperation!between! member! States.! It! has! a! Secretariat! in! Mauritius! and! maintains! close! coordination! through! a! Memorandum! of! Understanding! with! the! Nairobi! Convention! Secretariat,! on! marine! environmental! affairs.!The!Western!Indian!Ocean!Coastal!Challenge!(WIOCC)!was!first!proposed!by!President!James!A.! Michel! of! the! Seychelles! in! 2007! as! a! “platform! to! galvanize! political,! financial! and! technical! commitments! and! actions! at! national! and! regional! levels! on! climate! change! adaptation,! promoting! resilient!ecosystems!(marine!and!coastal!resources),!sustainable!livelihoods,!and!human!security”.!It!was! formally! launched! with! an! announcement! by! President! Michel! of! Seychelles! at! the! Small! Island! Developing!States!(SIDS)!summit!in!Samoa,!September!2014.! The! existence! of! three! regional! fisheries! organizations! illustrates! the! importance! of! fisheries! economically!to!the!countries!of!the!region,!as!well!as!in!political!and!governance!dynamics!with!distantV water! nations! and! their! fishing! fleets.! The! Southwest! Indian! Ocean! Fisheries! Commission! covers! the! broader!southwest!region,!from!a!Secretariat!in!the!FAO!Subregional!Office!for!Southern!Africa!(SFS),!in! Harare,!Zimbabwe.!The!Commission!has!a!Scientific!Committee!to!consider!the!state!of!fisheries!in!the! area! of! competence! and! to! advise! on! the! scientific! basis! for! possible! regulatory! measures! to! be! considered!for!adoption!by!the!members!of!the!Commission.!The!Commission!may!also!establish!on!an! ad! hoc! basis! committees! or! working! parties! it! may! consider! necessary.! The! Indian! Ocean! Tuna! Commisstion!(IOTC),!based!in!the!Seychelles,!is!open!to!Indian!Ocean!coastal!countries!and!to!countries! or!regional!economic!integration!organisations!which!are!members!of!the!UN!or!one!of!its!specialized! agencies!and!are!fishing!for!tuna!in!this!ocean.!The!Southern!Indian!Ocean!Fishery!Agreement!(SIOFA)! primarily! deals! with! demersal! fish,! overlapping! the! areas! of! the! IOTC! and! SWIOFC.! These,! and! the! organizations/associations!that!govern!other!economic!sectors!–!e.g.!martitime!trade!and!shipping,!oil! and!gas!industries,!and!others,!provide!key!frameworks!for!regional!integration!in!the!NMC.! A! number! of! other! regional! programmes! have! contributed! significantly! to! the! interVgovernmental! and! governance!context!of!the!region.!Principal!among!these!are!technical!cooperation!programmes!funded! by!the!Global!Environment!Facility!(GEF),!in!particular!three!‘sister’!programmes!focused!on!landVbased! sources! of! pollution,! marine! ecosystem! management! and! fisheries.! Reflecting! their! successful! contribution!to!regional!governance!and!development,!all!three!are!in!various!stages!of!preparation!of! secondVbased! projects,! for! further! funding! by! the! GEF64.! Other! donors,! whether! multilateral! (e.g.! EU),! ! 18! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! bilateral! (e.g.! FFEM,! DfID! etc)! or! from! development! banks! (e.g.! AfDB)! play! a! significant! role! in! developing!the!institutional!capital!of!the!WIO.!Most!recently,!an!initiative!led!by!the!President!of!the! Seychelles,! the! Western! Indian! Ocean! Coastal! Challenge! (WIOCC)! is! building! topVlevel! political! leadership!in!marine,!climate!change!and!sustainable!finance!in!the!WIO,!with!an!official!launch!at!the! SIDS! Summit! in! Samoa! in! October! 2014.! The! programmes! listed! in! this! paragraph! play! a! particularly! important!role!in!the!development!of!the!NMC!initiative,!as!they!have!developed!many!strategic!plans,! built! capacity! and! provided! guidance! on! how! to! move! forward.! However! given! their! large! regional! scope,! they! often! have! limited! practical! application! on! the! ground.! Hence,! this! integrated! approach! within! the! NMC! can! provide! a! mechanism! to! implement! and! integrate! the! outcomes! from! these! multiple!programmes.! 2.5.3. Civil Society Civil! society! organisations! (CSO)! provide! a! key! platform! for! representing! the! interests! of! the! general! public,!and!cover!a!broad!range!of!interests!from!culture!and!religion!through!to!e.g.!Conservation.!NonV Government! Organizations! are! an! example! of! civil! society! organisations,! already! active! in! the! NMC! in! the! conservation/environment! sector,! acting! from! local! to! national! to! regional! levels.! The! Consortium! for!Conservation!of!Coastal!and!Marine!Ecosystems!in!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!(WIOVC)!includes!the! major! NGOs! active! in! marine! conservation! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean.! It! was! formed! under! the! umbrella! of! the! Nairobi! Convention! to! facilitate! engagement! of! the! nonVgovernment! sector! in! the! processes! of! the! Convention.! As! of! midV2014,! membership! of! the! WIOC! comprised! the! following,! *Birdlife! International! (BI),! *Blue! Ventures! (BV),! *Coastal! Oceans! Research! and! Development! in! the! Indian! Ocean! (CORDIO),! *Conservation! International! (CI),! East! Africa! Wild! Life! Society! (EAWLS),! Fauna! and! Flora! International! (FFI),! Intergovernmental! Oceanographic! Commission! (IOCVUNESCO),! *International! Union! for! the! Conservation! of! Nature! (IUCN),! Rare! ,! The! Nature! Conservancy! (TNC),! Western! Indian! Ocean! Marine! Science! Association! (WIOMSA),! Wetlands! International! (WI),! Wildlife! Conservation!Society!(WCS),!and!*Worldwide!Fund!for!Nature!(WWF)65.! Less! engaged! at! the! larger! regional! scale,! though! often! with! greater! involvement! at! local! to! national! levels,!are!CSOs!and!Foundations!representing!the!interests!and!rights!of!various!sectors!of!the!public,! particularly!the!poor!and!disadvantaged,!in!health,!education,!religion,!culture!and!other!social!sectors.! Strengthening!the!CSO!sector!will!provide!a!key!mechanism!for!improved!engagement!of!the!public!in! governance!and!institutional!frameworks!in!the!NMCi.!To!this!end,!a!consultancy!on!CSO!strengthening! is! being! commissioned! by! WWF! in! the! NMC! region66,! to! inform! further! steps! in! building! CSO! involvement!in!the!NMCi.!! 2.5.4. Private sector Institutional!assets!in!the!Private!Sector!may!be!in!the!form!of!the!values!and!constitutions!of!individual! organisations! and! their! commitment! to! compatible! outcomes! with! this! initiative,! but! also! in! associations,!that!tend!to!form!around!sectoral!interests.!For!example:! V!In!the!oil!and!gas!sector,!the!Oil!and!Gas!Association!of!Tanzania!(OGAT),!a!private!sector!association!of! major! companies! is! active,! with! strong! links! to! government.! In! Madagascar,! the! Extracting! Industries! Transparency! Initiative! (EITI)! brings! together! the! industry! and! government,! with! a! role! for! other! stakeholders,!in!maintaining!standards!in!the!sector.!Variants!of!these!in!the!other!countries,!joined!in!a! regional! network! may! provide! an! appropriate! institutional! framework! for! engagement! at! the! scale! of! the!NMC.!! V! In! the! tourism! sector,! ecoVlabelling! and! standards! can! provide! a! mechanism! for! regional! integration! through!marketVbased!mechanisms.!Alternatively,!initiatives!such!as!the!Long!Run!Initiative67,!in!which! destinations! align! under! a! particular! set! of! values,! may! provide! novel! incentives! for! a! more! holistic! approach!to!development!(see!also!Blue!Flag!beaches!and!others).! Each!of!the!major!economic!sectors!identified!in!section!1.4!has!a!strong!constituency!of!actors!that!may! be!more!or!less!organized!in!representative!associations! 19! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 2.5.5. Biodiversity management and conservation Institutions! for! biodiversity! management! and! conservation! from! an! important! subVsector! of! the! governance/!institutional!landscape!of!the!countries!of!the!NMC.!Historically,!biodiversity!management! has! been! mandated! through! government! institutions! with! a! primary! focus! on! conservation! and! protection.!However,!in!line!with!the!global!shift!towards!diversification!of!the!goals!for!protected!areas! and! biodiversity! conservation,! institutional! goals! have! broadened! to! include! fisheries! management,! income!generation!and!livelihood!support.!In!parallel!with!this,!and!driven!by!growing!focus!on!human! rights! and! communityVbased! empowerment! and! ownership,! communityVbased! and! civil! society! institutions! have! gained! in! strength! to! implement! Locally! Managed! Marine! Areas68! (fig.! 9).! While! generally!local!in!focus,!networking!among!community!institutions!to!national!and!now!regional!levels!is! occurring,!with!an!increasing!area!designated!as!LMMAs!(11,329!km2),!about!one!third!of!the!total!area! under!management!in!the!region!(43,321!km2)69.!For!both!government!and!communityVled!management! ! Figure! 9.! Protected! areas,! both! national! and! communityVrun,! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean.! Left:! MPA! polygons! from!the!World!Database!on!Protected!Areas,!emphasizing!the!size!of!recent!MPAs!in!Mozambique!and!France;! source:! UNEPVWCMC! Ocean! Data! Viewer;! Right:! location! of! MPAs! and! LMMAs,! emphasizing! the! number! of! 70 individual!sites.!Source:!Rocliffe!et!al.!2014 .! areas,! laws! and! regulations! are! passed! by! the! respective! national! governments,! though! capacity! for! implementation! varies! greatly! among! countries,! as! well! as! among! institutions! and! locations! within! countries! The! potential! of! the! northern! Mozambique! Channel! as! a! transboundary! site! for! regional! conservation! was! first! identified! by! experts! during! a! regional! workshop! organized! through! the! Indian! Ocean! Commission! (IOC)! in! November! 2009,! in! Antananarivo,! Madagascar71.! Such! transboundary! networking! of! management! areas! would! build! on! individual! sites! already! in! place! and! under! multiple! different! management! entities! and! authorities.! In! 2012,! an! assessment! by! the! UNESCO! World! Heritage! Centre! Marine! Programme! identified! the! Mozambique! Channel! as! the! highest! priority! region! meeting! the! design! criteria! for! a! serial! World! Heritage! Site72,! comprising! multiple! sites! of! potential! Outstanding! Universal! Value.! Also! in! 2012,! the! NMC! was! described! as! meeting! the! criteria! for! Ecologically! or! Biologically! Significant! Areas! (EBSAs)! under! the! Convention! on! Biological! Diversity,! accepted! by! the! Parties!to!the!Convention!in!201473.!! 3. Long term change in the NMC This!section!outlines!the!drivers!of!change!in!the!NMC!and!how!these!may!lead!to!two!opposing!futures! for!the!region.!Both!futures!are!characterized!by!greater!wealth,!but!in!one!this!is!captured!by!the!elites,! inequality! increases! among! people! in! the! region! and! insecurity! and! vulnerability! affect! the! larger! ! 20! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! proportion!of!society.!In!the!other!the!wealth!is!shared!more!equitably,!leading!to!a!more!harmonious! and!sustainable!future.! Classically,! drivers! of! change! are! viewed! through! an! opportunities! vs.! threats! framework,! such! as! the! DPSIR!framework!commonly!used!in!large!project!planning74.!However,!one!projects!opportunity!may!be! another’s!threat,!leading!to!conflict!between!actors!–!this!is!the!typical!case!between!development!and! conservation.!Rather!than!taking!this!approach,!we!present!both!the!opportunity!and!threat,!seen!from! the! perspective! of! the! Capitals! Approach! –! where! interventions! should! build! capitals! and! assets,! not! undermine!them,!and!also!applying!an!equity!principle!such!that!no!sectors!of!society!are!disadvantaged! by!another’s!activities!(see!section!3.1.1).! 3.1. Drivers of change in the NMC The! preceding! sections! list! significant! assets! of! the! Mozambique! Channel! that! will! be! the! engines! of! development!in!the!near!future.!However,!the!ecosystems,!the!resources!they!provide!and!the!services! that! people! benefit! from! are! already! under! significant! pressure! from! the! very! human! activities! they! support,! resulting! in! habitat! degradation,! pollution! and! overVexploitation! of! resources.! Risks! are! expected!to!increase!in!the!future!as!pressures!escalate!from!population!growth,!urban!development,! migration! to! the! coast! and! from! rural! to! urban! areas,! terrestrial! runoff,! overexploitation! of! critical! habitats! such! as! coral! reefs! and! mangroves,! unregulated! fisheries,! tourism,! oil! and! gas! development,! shipping!and!climate!change75.!Inappropriate,!and!particularly!short!term!and!sectoral!goals!can!result!in! exploitation! that! significantly! erodes! the! value! of! the! targeted! and! other! assets,! as! has! been! demonstrated!in!many!countries!with!vast!natural!wealth!but!weak!governance!systems76.! The!three!regional!marine!programmes!funded!by!the!Global!Environment!Facility!(GEF)77!identified!root! causes! driving! negative! change! in! the! WIO,! and! key! areas! of! concern! resulting! from! these.! These! are! summarised!in!the!following!tables!(4V6).!! Table!5.!Generic!root!causes!of!transVboundary!problems,!from!the!WIOLAB!and!ASCLMEVSWIOFP!TransVboundary! Diagnostic!analyses!(Sources:!Table!6,!WIOSAP!2009;!ASCLME/SWIOFP!2009)! A.$Population$pressure$ Rapid!population!growth!and!associated!urbanization!in!the!WIO!Region!has!increased!generation! of! waste! and! concentration! of! waste! streams.! Also,! population! growth! has! led! to! increased! demand!for!ecosystem!goods!and!services.! B.$Poverty$and$inequality$ The! WIO! region! is! characterized! by! high! poverty! levels! resulting! in! increased! reliance! on! the! exploitation!of!natural!resources.!The!consequent!lack!of!financial!resources!has!led!to!problems! such! as! inadequate! sanitation! infrastructure,! and! institutions! and! regulatory! bodies! lacking! capacity.! C.$ Inappropriate$ In! the! countries! of! the! WIO! region! there! exists! a! weakness! in! policy,! legal! and! institutional! governance$ structures!and!building!blocks!for!effective!management!of!the!coastal!and!marine!environment.! Most!countries!in!the!WIO!region!do!not!have!adequate!financial!resources,!whether!in!absolute! D.$ Inadequate$ financial$ terms!or!through!inadequate!priority!setting,!for!effective!management!of!the!coastal!and!marine! resources$ environment.! Gaps!in!knowledge!base!and!inadequate!awareness!of!the!value!of!ecosystem!goods!and!services! E.$ Inadequate$ knowledge$ provided! by! a! healthy! coastal! and! marine! environment! are! a! major! cause! of! management! and$awareness$ inefficiencies!by!coastal!communities!and!policy!makers!in!the!WIO!Region.! Climate!change!and!natural!variability!in!the!WIO!Region!is!already!influencing!rainfall!patterns,! F.$ Climate$ change$ and$ the!flow!patterns!of!rivers!impacting!on!floodplains,!deltas!and!coastal!ecosystems,!as!evidenced! natural$processes$ by!the!bleaching!of!corals.! G.$Economic$drivers$ The!demand!for!ecosystem!goods!and!services,!including!from!export!markets,!is!exceeding!the! availability!and!regeneration!capacity!of!elements!of!the!ecosystem!in!the!WIO!Region.! H.$Cultural$traditions$ In!some!cases,!cultural!traditions!that!were!appropriate!to!historical!contexts!and!population!size! are!no!longer!appropriate!to!the!current!situation,!thus!need!to!be!changed.!At!the!same!time,! valuable! traditions! from! the! past! are! increasingly! lost! through! rapid! urbanisation! and! demographic!changes.! I.$Personal$attitude$ Among!many!in!the!region,!there!is!a!culture!of!entitlement,!whereby!people!believe!they!have!a! 21! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! right!to!resources,!regardless!of!the!status!of!those!resources.!Associated!with!a!culture!of!blame! shifting,!not!taking!responsibility!for!one’s!actions.!Other!underlying!causes!associated!with!which! this!root!cause!was!associated!included!bribery,!greed!and!corruption!and!negligence! ! Table!6.!Key!areas!of!concern,!identified!by!the!WIOSAP!(2009)! Habitat$degradation$ Degradation! of! mangrove! forests! Degradation! of! seagrass! beds! Degradation!of!coral!reefs! Degradation! of! coastal! forests! Shoreline!changes! Water$quality/pollution$ Microbial!contamination! Alteration$of$river$flows$ lows!and!water!quality! Governance/policy$ Policy! and! legislative! inadequacies! High!suspended!solids! Alteration! of! sediment! Limited! institutional! loads! capacity! Chemical!pollution! ! Inadequate!awareness! Marine!litter/solid!waste! ! Inadequate! financial! mechanisms! Eutrophication! ! Poor! knowledge! (harmful/nuisance! algal! management! blooms)! ! Table!7.!Main!areas!of!concern,!identified!by!ASCLME/SWIOFP!(2009)! Main$ Area$ of$ Issue$ Concern$ $ Alteration!of!natural!river!flow!and!changes!in!freshwater!input!and!sediment!load! Degradation!of!ground!and!surface!water!quality!(fresh!and!estuarine,!not!marine)! Water! quality! Microbiological! contamination! from! landVbased! (domestic,! industrial,! agriculture! and! livestock)! and! marine! degradation! (mariculture,!shipping)!sources! Solid!wastes!/!marine!debris!(plastics!etc.)!from!shipping!and!landVbasedVsources! Oil!spills!(drilling,!exploitation,!transport,!processing,!storage,!shipping).! Shoreline!change,!due!to!modification,!land!reclamation!and!coastal!erosion! Disturbance,!damage!and!loss!of!upland!/!watershed!habitats!(>10!m!elevation)! Disturbance,!damage!and!loss!of!coastal!habitats!(beaches,!dunes,!coastal!vegetation!and!flood!plain!habitats! to!10!m!elevation)! Habitat! and! Disturbance,!damage!and!loss!of!mangrove!habitats! community! Disturbance,!damage!and!loss!of!coral!reef!habitats! modification! Disturbance,!damage!and!loss!of!seagrass!habitats! Disturbance,! damage! and! degradation! of! pelagic! habitats! (nearshore! <30! m,! neritic! 30V200m! and! oceanic! >200m!depth)! Introduction!of!exotic!nonVnative!species,!invasives!and!nuisance!species! Declines! in! Decline! in! populations! of:! sharks! and! rays,! large! and! small! pelagics,! reef! and! demersal! fish,! sea! cucumbers,! living! marine! prawns!and!shrimp,!and!lobsters! resources! Excessive!bycatch!and!discards! ! 3.1.1. Opportunities vs. threats The!above!root!causes!result!in!direct!threats!and!impacts!in!all!of!the!five!capitals!listed!in!section!2.! The!following!sections!detail!threats!to,!or!emanating!from,!each!of!these!capitals.!However,!threats!and! adversity!may!also!be!viewed!as!opportunities!for!change!or!innovation.!Thus!part!of!the!solution!for!the! NMC! will! be! the! ability! for! countries! and! nonVgovernment! actors! to! transform! the! drivers! of! negative! change!!to!opportunities!for!positive!change.!As!a!Regional!Seas!programme,!the!WIO!can!derive!lessons! from!other!Regional!Seas,!in!this!case!the!experience!of!the!Baltic!Regional!Seas!programme,!under!the! ! 22! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! for! innovation,! new! business! ! Helsinki! Commission,! to! turn! threats! and! pressures! into! opportunities! opportunities!and!a!trajectory!of!sustainable!development!(fig.!10)78.!! ! Figure!10.!Turning!adversity!or!problems!into!opportunities.!Source:!Lind!&!Kallström!(2014).! Taking!this!approach!into!the!broader!context!of!the!five!capitals!in!the!NMC,!the!realities!of!population! growth!and!need!for!development!(Social!and!Human!capitals),!and!the!extreme!pressures!for!private! sector!growth!in!natural!gas!and!other!sectors,!will!need!to!be!intricately!balanced!with!the!realities!of! sustainable! use! of! natural! capital,! and! the! need! for! equitable! economic! development! and! growth! (Economic! and! Governance! Capitals).! To! the! private! sector,! the! population! growth! and! demographic! transition!! 3.2. Scenarios of change in the NMC Understanding!opportunities!for!change,!in!order!to!make!better!decisions,!is!fraught!with!high!levels!of! uncertainty.! To! facilitate! this! process! and! betterVunderstand! the! sources! and! importance! of! this! uncertainty,!it!is!useful!to!develop!scenarios!as!‘pictures’!of!how!the!future!may!look,!based!on!different! choices!and!circumstances!along!the!way.!A!simplified!path!for!thinking!about!scenarios!is!presented!by! the!Natural!Capital!project79.! At! the! first! stages! of! scenario! development,! use! simple! ‘vision! scenarios’! which! are! constructed! by! participants/stakeholders!and!express!their!ambitions!about!how!the!future!may!look.!These!are!simple! scenarios,! and! mostly! narrative/descriptive,! but! are! helpful! in! framing! overall! directions,! and! leading! towards!more!explicit!and!quantitative!scenarios.!! At!later!stages,!use!more!explicit!scenarios!based!on!specific!choices,!or!interventions,!for!example!on!a! specific!tax!rate,!legislation!on!allowable!practices,!etc.!These!enable!exploration!of!the!future!outcomes! of!these!specific!choices,!usually!with!a!quantitative!basis,!and!are!often!called!‘intervention’!or!‘policy’! scenarios.!They!can!be!used,!for!example,!to!explore!how!different!decisions!(switches)!may!transform! from!one!scenario!to!another,!or!among!different!outcomes!within!a!major!scenario.! 23! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! At!some!point,!exploratory!scenarios!may!be!used,!which!may!be!targeted!at!major!events!that!may!not! be!controllable,!for!example!natural!disasters,!a!war,!political!or!economic!turmoil,!etc.!These!are!useful! for! exploring! the! consequences! of! unforeseen!events,!particularly!where! Box 1 – Africa Environment Outlook scenarios policy! or! interventions! can! be! The! four! scenarios! of! the! AEO,! which! were! derived! from! a! set! of! six! amended!to!minimise!exposure!to,!or! 1 scenarios! in! the! GEO ! can! be! described! as! vision! scenarios! V! though! impacts!from,!these!events.! they!are!founded!on!some!numbers!and!analysis,!they!frame!peoples’! At! this! early! stage! in! development! of! the! NMC! programme,! two! simple! vision! scenarios! may! be! most! useful,! to! be! evolved! into! more! explicit! and! multiVdimensional! intervention/policy! scenarios! once! the! countries! and! institutional! arrangements! for! the! initiative! are! in! place.! Though! they! are!vision!scenarios,!they!are!built!up! from! simple! action/noVaction! or! twoV option! actions! in! multiple! sectors! important! in! the! NMC.! They! represent! one! future! based! on! amplification! of! current! realities! that! have!played!out!in!African!economies! fuelled! by! oil/gas! extraction! over! the! last! 30V50! years,! vs.! explicit! decisions! to! choose! green/blue! economic! options!at!each!possible!step:! perspectives!on!the!trajectory!they!want!to!move!down.!In!many!ways! it! may! be! simpler! to! have! fewer! scenarios! to! explore! opposite! outcomes.! For! our! purposes! we! might! group! the! AEO! scenarios! as! follows:! The! ‘Market! forces’! and! ‘Fortress! world’! scenarios! identify! futures! where! the! focus! of! decisionVmaking! is! narrow! V! either! to! the! narrow! constraints!of!capitalist!markets!and!the!pricing!of!goods!and!services,! trusting! ‘the! market’! to! allocate! resources! and! effort! efficiently! accordingly,! or! to! the! constraints! of! nation! states! and! boundaries,! where! nationalism! or! narrow! ‘us! vs.! them’! considerations! dominate! decisions.! In! the! AEO! both! of! these! lead! to! similar! envelopes! of! development,! in! terms! of! GDP! and! economic! sectors,! as! well! as! environmental!impacts.! The! ‘Policy! reform’! and! ‘Great! Transitions’! scenarios! identify! futures! where! decisionVmaking! takes! on! a! broader! purpose,! either! in! evolutionary! terms,! in! the! former,! where! policies! and! institutions! are! incrementally! built! up! and! diversified! to! deal! with! a! more! complex! world,! or! in! revolutionary! terms,! where! a! new! paradigm! of! decisionV making!is!adopted!that!is!holistic.! 3.2.1. Scenario 1) Fuelled Business As Usual – natural gas/hydrocarbon extraction. In!this!scenario,!the!experience!of!Africa’s!fossilVfuel!rich!economies!is!played!out!in!the!NMC’s!emerging! economies,! in! a! future! characterised! by! globalisation! and! strong! competition! between! national,! social! and! corporate! actors! over! the! vast! wealth! to! be! generated! from! a! mining! approach! to! natural! asset! exploitation.!This!combines!the!Market!Forces!and!Fortress!World!options!of!the!AEO,!where!decisions! about! the! largest! and! most! valuable! assets! of! a! country! are! made! with! the! interests! of! political! and! corporate!elites!in!the!forefront.!Social!welfare!and!the!public!good!suffer,!and!poor!planning!and!lack!of! long! term! investment! may! lead! to! deficiencies! of! infrastructure! (roads,! railways,! IT,! sewage! disposal,! housing,!power,!water,!etc).!Social!and!demographic!issues!are!not!dealt!with!proactively,!and!national! populations! take! on! the! highVgrowth! trajectories! presented! by! the! United! Nations! (see! fig.! 8,! next! section).!Factors!that!supported!rapid!growth!in!emerging!economies,!and!greater!equality!of!incomes! in! the! 1990sV2000s! have! recently! reversed80,! so! greater! inequality! in! incomes! within! countries! is! expected.! 3.2.2. Scenario 2) Green/Blue Economic Development In! this! scenario,! the! governments! and! corporate! leaders! make! individual! choices! that! are! consistent! with! sustainable! development! (in! a! deep! sense)! and! growth! in! economic,! social! and! environmental! benefits!in!synergy!with!one!another.!In!macroVeconomic!terms!these!options!are!encapsulated!in!the! ‘green!economic’!model,!and!given!the!primacy!of!the!ocean!and!its!resources!in!the!future!of!the!NMC,! the! region! can! define! a! ‘blue! economic’! model! that! fits! its! context.! While! visionary! in! terms! of! the! sustainability! and! equity! this! scenario! strives! to! achieve,! it! must! be! constructed! from! thousands! of! individual!choices!in!each!sector!and!every!economic!decision!from!the!smallest!scale!of!village!waste! disposal!to!the!largest!scale!of!regional!energy!policy.!It!encapsulates!the!enlightened!world!view!of!the! ! 24! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! AEO! Policy! Reform! scenario! as! a! basis! for! the! transformation! in! values! envisioned! in! the! Great! Transitions!scenario!that!is!necessary!to!justify!and!maintain!this!Scenario.! Table! 8! illustrates! the! dichotomy! between! these! two! scenarios,! emphasizing! the! multiple! sectors! and! decisions!within!each!of!those!sectors!that!can!lead!to!one!or!the!other!scenario!outcome.!A!visioning! process! for! the! NMC! will! need! to! identify! and! express! the! overall! vision! that! the! initiative! hopes! to! achieve,!and!based!on!this,!the!vast!array!of!individual!actions!that!need!to!be!put!in!place!to!achieve!it.! Table!8.!Two!opposing!scenarios!for!future!outcomes!in!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel.! $ Description$ AEO/GEO$ Economy$ Population$ Agriculture$ Energy$ Fuelled$Business$as$Usual$ Business!as!usual,!with!fossil!fuels! Market!Forces!meets!Fortress!World! Profit! and! market! forces! control! distribution! of! income! Most! families! do! not! implement! family! planning,! economic! growth! is! swallowed! up! by! even! faster! rates! of! population! growth,! ruralVurban! migration! high.! Intensive,!led!by!large!corporate!structures! Fossil! fuel! extraction! drives! the! economy,! profit! in! corporate!and!elites! Weak!and!dysfuntional!public!health!and!services! Health$ Fisheries$ Degraded! fish! stocks,! low! production,! only! large! corporates!and!poor!fishers! Aquaculture$ Large! corporate! firms,! high! environmental! impacts,! driven!by!export!demand! Green/Blue$economy$ Green/Blue!economic!development! Policy!Reform!meets!Great!Transitions! Policies!to!support!welfare,!education,!health! Family!planning!choices!are!accessed!by!all!families,! reducing! growth! rates! and! thus! additional! pressure! on!resources,!balanced!rural/urban!populations! Mixed,!with!high!level!of!agroVecological!agriculture! for!the!poor! Fossil! fuel! extraction! blended! with! emerging/renewable!technologies! Strong! public! health! system,! providing! varied! services! Sustainable! fish! stocks,! diversified! fisheries! supporting! small,! medium! and! large! scale! operations! Extensive! rural/SME! aquaculture,! providing! protein! for!local!and!foreign!markets,!minimum!impacts! ! 3.3. Natural capital Direct!and!indirect!threats!to!natural!capital!act!through!two!principal!processes!–!habitat!degradation! and!destruction,!and!overVexploitation!of!natural!resources81.! 3.3.1. Destruction and degradation of critical habitats The! most! intense! pressures! on! coastal! and! marine! resources! and! habitats! are! concentrated! in! and! adjacent! to! population! centers,! from! a! combination! of! extraction! (principally! fishing)! and! coastal! development! (including! pollution! impacts! highlighted! in! the! previous! section).! Mozambique! Channel! countries! fall! into! two! categories! V! the! large! ones! (Madagascar,! Mozambique,! Tanzania)! with! low! population! densities! and! relatively! low! proportional! impact! to! coastal! habitats,! and! the! islands! (Comoros,! Mayotte)! with! high! population! densities! and! very! limited! coastlines,! and! therefore! high! proportional!impacts!to!date.!! Limiting!impacts!to!coastal!habitats!is!the!goal!of!many!areaVbased!management!tools!such!as!Marine! Protected! Areas! (MPAs)! and! Integrated! Coastal! Zone! Management! (ICZM).! In! highVdensity! situations! comprehensive! management! of! the! entire! coastal! zone! through! ICZM! and! similar! practices! has! been! attempted! (IZCM! references),! but! these! have! had! limited! success! in! reducing! habitat! damage.! More! successful!has!been!the!implementation!of!Marine!Protected!Areas!(MPAs),!though!these!are!relatively! small,!don’t!address!many!of!the!complex!social!and!economic!drivers!in!more!high!density!settings.!At! present,!the!areas!of!LMMAs!and!MPAs!in!the!WIO,!as!well!as!in!the!NMC,!falls!far!short!of!national!and! global! targets! of! 10%82.! Where! MPAs! are! effectively! managed! and! contain! significant! noVtake! zones,! pressure! in! these! zones! is! light.! But! outside! of! the! core! zones,! including! in! exploited! zones! within! the! broader! MPA! boundaries,! pressures! can! be! extremely! high.! In! all! cases,! the! effectiveness! of! management! may! be! severely! eroded! by! poor! governance! and! implementation,! and! compliance! of! 25! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! stakeholders! is! often! low,! driven! by! corruption! in! some! cases,! but! often! poverty,! cultural! factors! and! need83.! CommunityVbased!MPA!management!and!coVmanagement!of!local!areas!with!government!has!started! to! grow! in! the! region,! led! by! a! rapid! expansion! of! Locally! Managed! Marine! Areas! (LMMAs)! in! Madagascar! (with! over! 40! LMMAs! now! reported! on! the! west! coast),! with! examples! in! Mozambique,! Tanzania!and!Kenya84.!The!incentives!for!LMMAs,!where!communities!can!establish!ownership!to!limit! fishing!by!outsiders!are!clear,!giving!them!rights!and!incentives!for!more!sustainable!extraction!of!fish! over!the!longer!term.!At!the!larger!scale,!transVboundary!management!of!critical!ecosystems!has!been! proposed!in!TransVFrontier!Conservation!Areas!(TFCAs)85.!Tese!have!not!yet!to!come!to!fruition,!with!the! Northern!Mozambique!Channel!being!among!the!lead!candidates!for!establishment.! 3.3.2. Overexploitation of resources The!current!strain!on!living!resources!is!illustrated!by!many!publications!showing!the!decline!in!catch!per! unit!effort!in!fisheries,!and!either!stagnating!or!even!declining!total!catch!even!with!increasing!entry!into! fishery! sectors86.! Other! marine! resources! such! as! mangroves! have! shown! similar! evidence! of! decline! from! extraction,! fuelled! by! a! large! increase! in! demand! from! population! growth! and! often! these! resources!are!exploited!as!common!property!where!people!have!limited!access!to!other!resources!(e.g.! fuel!for!cooking).! Opportunities! to! reverse! declines! in! resources,! such! as! fisheries! catch! exist,! but! are! challenging! to! realise.! Shrimp! stocks! have! been! severely! overexploited! in! Madagascar! and! the! onceVhigh! foreign! currency! revenues! have! fallen! sharply.! However,! positive! steps! are! being! taken! to! restore! the! fishery! across!the!market!chain:!local!communities!and!industrial!fishers!are!beginning!to!seek!ways!to!restore! shrimp!stocks!and!obtain!MSC!and!ASC!certification87.!RightsVbased!approaches,!focusing!on!community! rights! and! poverty! alleviation! may! provide! options,! but! population! growth! and! increasing! density! of! settlement!on!the!coast!pose!significant!challenges.!! 3.4. Social capital Human!society!and!economic!activity!are!the!drivers!of!change!in!this!new!era!of!world!history!called! the! Anthropocene88,! thus! factors! affecting! the! number! of! people! and! levels! of! economic! activity! and! impact!are!the!primary!variables!driving!change!in!the!NMC.! 3.4.1. Population growth Population! statistics! for! the! NMC! countries! are! derived! from! the! Population! Division! of! the! UN! Department!of!Economic!and!Social!Affairs89.!Countries!of!the!NMC!are!mostly!classified!as!having!low! HDI,!and!have!correspondingly!rapidly!growing!populations!(fig.!11).!Currently!(in!2015)!total!population! of!these!countries!is!at!105!million!people.!The!median!estimate!of!population!size!for!NMC!countries!in! 2100!is!almost!500!million,!with!ranges!of!300V800!million!(±80%!margins)!and!225!million!to!1!billion! (±95! margins).! The! low! variant! might! be! equivalent! to! the! Green! Economy! scenario! (see! section! 2.2),! while!somewhere!between!the!median!and!80th!percentile!might!be!equivalent!to!the!Fuelled!Business! As!Usual!scenario.!A!key!observation!is!that!even!at!the!median!estimate!of!growth,!population!will!still! be!increasing!in!2100.! Population!growth!rates!in!NMC!countries!are!high,!with!national!averages!(medians),!from!2.9V3.7%!per! year!for!1995V2010!being!reported!(Table!9).!Median!growth!rates!drop!to!an!average!of!2.1%!in!2050V 65,! and! 1%! in! 2085V2100.! ! The! lower! estimates! of! growth! do! end! in! negative! rates! (ie.! population! declines)!by!2100,!but!this!is!only!in!the!small!islands,!than!the!large!countries.!High!estimates!of!growth! continue!at!2V3%!per!annum!in!the!large!countries!at!the!end!of!the!century.!Throughout!the!NMC,!as!in! most!of!Africa,!the!population!is!young!(with!42V46%!under!15!years).!This!will!pose!a!great!challenge!as! large! numbers! of! youth! enter! the! workforce! in! the! next! 10V20! years,! and! demand! will! increase! significantly! as! they! mature! and! look! for! employment! and! livelihoods,! and! have! their! own! families.! ! 26! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! Improvements!in!health!care!will!exacerbate!the!‘population!bulge’!as!a!drop!in!birth!rates!typically! lags!behind!the!drop!in!death!rates90.!!! ! Figure! 11.! Population! trends,! 1950! V! 2100! for! the! countries! of! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! (Source:! Population! Division! of! the! Department! of! Economic! and! Social! Affairs! of! the! United! Nations! Secretariat,! World! Population!Prospects:!The!2012!Revision,!http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm)! Of!importance!to!the!NMC!is!also!the!population!density!in!the!coastal!areas!of!the!region.!This!is!very! low!on!the!mainland!and!Madagascar!coastlines,!except!in!urban!centers,!and!along!road!networks!(see! fig.!591).!By!contrast,!islands!in!the!Comores!Archipelago!have!very!high!population!densities!with!some! locations! exceeding! 1,000/km2.! Combining! the! coastal! populations! estimated! in! fig.! 2! with! potential! projected! growth! rates! (fig.,! 8;! Table! 10),! and! assuming! no! additional! immigration! to! the! NMC,! the! population! of! the! NMC! can! be! projected! to! growth! from! today’s! level! of! 10! million! to! 19,! 22! or! 25! million!in!2050!(respectively,!for!the!lower!80%,!median!and!upper!80%!variants)!(Table!10).!By!2100!the! difference! between! these! projections! becomes! extremely! stark,! at! 26,! 42! or! 68! million,! respectively.! Initial!assumptions!can!be!made!that:! 1. the!upper!80%!population!projection!may!be!equivalent!to!Scenario!1,!“Business!as!usual,!fuelled!by! natural! gas/hydrocarbon! extraction”,! where! poor! social! policies,! corruption,! inequality! of! incomes! and!immigration,!fuelled!by!the!wealth!from!natural!gas,!result!in!massive!population!growth!in!the! NMC! coastal! zones.! The! middle! variant! is! generally! taken! as! the! current! situation! projected! forwards,!but!given!the!fact!that!hydrocarbon!extraction!WILL!occur!at!some!point!over!the!next!3V5! decades,!the!high!variant!is!more!likely!than!the!middle!variant.!These!projections!do!not!take!into! account! immigration! drawn! by! the! wealth! and! development! created! by! natural! gas! extraction,! which!may!greatly!increase!growth!rates!throughout!the!first!half!of!the!century.! 27! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 2. The!lower!80%!population!projection!may!be!equivalent!to!Scenario!2,!“Green!Economy”!where!the! benefits!of!energy!and!other!wealth!are!derived,!but!in!a!context!of!social!policies!and!equality!that! temper! population! growth! rates! to! minimize! the! footprint! of! population! numbers! and! economic! activity.! Table! 9.! Population! growth! rates! derived! from! fig.! 10.! The! average! growth! rate! over! three! 15Vyear! periods! is! shown!(1995V2010,!2050V2065!and!2085V2100),!for!each!population!trend!(median,!±80%,!±95%).! Years! M95! 1995V2010! 2050V2065! 2085V2100! ! 0.9%! ! V0.2%! 1995V2010! 2050V2065! 2085V2100! ! 0.9%! ! V0.2%! 1995V2010! 2050V2065! 2085V2100! ! 1.1%! ! V0.2%! 1995V2010! 2050V2065! 2085V2100! ! 0.6%! ! V0.5%! 1995V2010! 2050V2065! 2085V2100! ! 0.6%! ! V0.5%! 1995V2010! 2050V2065! 2085V2100! ! 1.0%! ! V0.2%! M80! Median! Madagascar! 3.2%! 1.3%! 1.9%! 0.2%! 0.9%! Mozambique! 2.9%! 1.2%! 2.0%! 0.1%! 0.8%! Tanzania! 2.9%! 1.5%! 2.2%! 0.3%! 1.1%! Comoros! 2.7%! 0.9%! 1.5%! V0.1%! 0.7%! Mayotte! 3.7%! 0.8%! 1.3%! V0.2%! 0.3%! Total! 3.0%! 1.4%! 2.1%! 0.2%! 1.0%! +80! +95! !! ! 2.5%! 1.7%! ! 2.6%! 1.6%! ! 2.8%! 1.9%! ! 2.1%! 1.5%! ! 1.7%! 0.8%! ! 2.7%! 1.8%! 2.8%! 2.1%! !! 3.0%! 2.0%! !! 3.2%! 2.3%! !! 2.4%! 1.9%! !! 1.9%! 1.1%! !! 3.0%! 2.2%! ! 3.4.2. Urban development and inland-coastal migration Growth!rates!in!coastal!provinces!of!the!countries! are!likely!higher!than!in!inland!provinces,!following! the! general! pattern! demonstrated! globally! of! migration! to! urban! centres! and! the! coast.! This! will! be! accentuated! by! oil/gas! development! in! the! NMC! region,! drawing! people! from! NMC! countries! and! beyond! for! opportunities! within! the! sector,! demand! for! services! around! it,! and! a! general! sense! of! opportunities.!! At! present,! NMC! populations! are! predominantly! rural! and! agricultural,! but! with! expected! economic! changes! will! become! more! urban! and! with! a! greater! dependence! on! manufacturing! and! other! nonV agricultural!sectors!for!employment.!The!production!of!gas!and!fossil!fuels!will!further!drive!an!energyV dependent!urbanisation,!putting!greater!strain!on!resources.!Growth!in!key!urban!areas!in!the!NMC!will! be! a! primary! driver! of! change,! as! well! as! opportunity.! Coastal! development,! also! driven! by! tourism,! trade!and!shipping,!will!be!strong!pull!factors!increasing!migration!as!people!move!to!coastal!areas!in! search!of!employment.!! Migration! is! also! a! driver! of! change! in! how! it! changes! economic! activities.! Particularly! for! Tanzania,! Mozambique!and!Madagascar!migration!of!fishers!along!their!coasts!has!been!practiced!for!many!years,! and! is! intensifying! due! to! overfishing! around! growing! population! centers.! At! present,! where! migrant! fisher! concentrations! are! high,! significant! damage! to! marine! ecosystems,! overfishing! and! poaching! illegal!species!such!as!turtles,!occur92.!! ! ! ! ! 28! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! Table! 10.! Projections! for! population! in! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! for! 2050! and! 2100,! combining! the! analyses!from!Landscan!(section!1.2.2)!and!UNDP!population!projections.!Note!V!statistics!for!Seychelles!are!not! included,!as!the!populations!bordering!the!Mozambique!Channel!are!administrative!units!in!the!Aldabra!group!of! islands.! ! $ Countries$ UNDP$(flrom$fig.$10)$ 2015$ 2050$ 2100$ $ Median$(Business$as$Usual)$ Mayotte! 0.2! 0.5! Comoros! 0.8! 1.5! Madagascar! 24.2! 55.5! Mozambique! 27.1! 59.9! Tanzania! 52.3! 129.4! Total! 104.7! 246.8! Upper$80%$(Fuelled$Business$as$Usual)$ Mayotte$ 0.2! 0.5! Comoros$ 0.8! 1.7! Madagascar$ 24.5! 64.0! Mozambique$ 27.4! 70.4! Tanzania$ 52.9! 150.1! Total! 105.8! 286.8! Lower$80%$(Green/Blue$economy)$ Mayotte$ 0.2! 0.4! Comoros$ 0.8! 1.3! Madagascar$ 24.0! 47.6! Mozambique$ 26.8! 50.0! Tanzania$ 51.7! 109.6! Total! 103.8! 217.7! Northern$Mozambique$Channel$(100$ km$coastal$zone/LandScan)$ 2013$ 2050$ 2100$ 0.7! 2.5! 105.1! 112.0! 275.6! 496.0! !0.2!! !0.7!! !3.5!! !3.9!! !1.5!! !9.8!! !0.5!! !1.5!! !7.9!! !8.6!! !3.8!! !22.3!! !0.7!! !2.5!! !15.0!! !16.0!! !8.2!! !42.4!! 0.9! 4.1! 167.6! 183.8! 447.9! 804.4! !0.2!! !0.7!! !3.5!! !3.9!! !1.5!! !9.8!! !0.5!! !1.7!! !9.0!! !10.0!! !4.4!! !25.7!! !0.9!! !4.1!! !23.7!! !26.0!! !13.1!! !67.8!! 0.5! 1.5! 65.1! 66.5! 161.1! 332.7! !0.2!! !0.7!! !3.5!! !3.9!! !1.5!! !9.8!! !0.4!! !1.3!! !6.9!! !7.2!! !3.3!! !19.1!! !0.5!! !1.5!! !9.4!! !9.6!! !4.8!! !25.9!! ! As!well!as!being!a!threat,!population!growth,!urbanisation,!greater!access!to!fossil!fuels!and!increased! industrialisation! of! the! region! can! be! an! opportunity! (see! 2.1.1).! Good! governance! of! the! process! can! result! in! many! millions! of! citizens! accumulating! wealth! and! investing! it! in! lifestyles! and! economic! practices!that!are!not!damaging!to!their!environment!and!broader!context.!With!the!vast!pool!of!youth! coming!of!age!and!the!increase!in!employment!that!the!rapidly!growing!energy!sector!will!drive,!there!is! an! opportunity! provided! by! this! much! larger! market! and! source! of! skills! and! innovation! to! build! economic!growth.! 3.5. Economic capital The! economic! sectors! of! the! NMC! are! both! drivers! of! change,! and! vulnerable! to! it.! All! of! the! major! sectors! are! starting! from! low! levels! currently,! providing! immense! scope! for! growth.! However! all! economic!assets!are!limited,!and!inappropriate!development!may!damage!the!primary!assets!on!which! they!are!reliant.!Some!of!the!key!sectors!are!described!below.! 3.5.1. Fisheries and other living resources Fisheries! in! the! NMC! are! principally! artisanal! or! smallVscale,! of! local! fishers! plying! coastal! and! reef! waters!with!relatively!basic!gear,!and!industrial!offshore,!of!Distant!Water!Fishing!Nation!(DFWN)!fleets! targeting!tuna.!The!artisanal!fisheries!of!the!region!are!very!poorly!reported,!with!unreliable!statistics!on! the!number!of!fishers,!vessels!and!their!catch.!National!statistics!submitted!to!the!FAO!are!generally!too! aggregated!and!general!for!meaningful!interpretation!at!relevant!scales!for!local!management,!while!a! large! proportion! of! the! catch! is! unreported.! Mozambique,! Madagascar! and! Tanzania! have! strong! policies! promoting! coVmanagement! with! local! fishers,! and! support! is! growing! for! local! management! areas! that! include! some! closures! to! protect! fish! stocks.! However,! because! most! catch! feeds! into! local! 29! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! markets! and! fish! form! a! significant! proportion! of! household! protein,! limiting! catch! and! use! of! overV efficient!gears!is!difficult,!and!population!growth!is!and!will!continue!to!lead!to!exponentially!increasing! pressure! on! limited! inshore! fishing! resources.! Achieving! sustainable! small! scale! fisheries! for! the! NMC! will!be!among!the!greatest!challenges,!while!also!being!of!significant!importance!to!downstream!regions! outside!of!the!NMC!which!are!reliant!on!larval!supply!and!ecosystem!processes!within!the!NMC.! Large!scale!fisheries!in!the!NMC!fall!under!the!mandates!of!overlapping!Regional!Fishery!Management! Organizations!(RFMOs),!including!the!IOTC,!SIOFA!and!SWIOFC.!Tuna!are!the!primary!target!but!almost! none! of! the! catch! is! landed! within! the! NMC! countries,! being! landed! in! the! Seychelles! and! Mauritius! where!large!canning!factories!are!located.!The!dynamics!of!the!NMC!eddies!and!Comoros!gyre!support! unusually! productive! food! webs! leading! up! to! the! top! fishery! species93,! which! may! be! a! factor! controlling! the! seasonal! migration! of! tuna! into! the! NMC94.! As! pressures! increase! on! regional! stocks! within! and! outside! the! NMC,! effective! transboundary! management! of! effort! will! become! increasingly! important.! The! countries! of! the! NMC! are! yet! to! negotiate! from! a! strong! position! in! the! fishery! agreements! controlling! fishing! activity,! emphasizing! the! benefits! a! joint! subVregional! approach! may! bring!to!enhance!their!motivation!to!manage!the!fishery!resources!sustainably.!No!part!of!the!NMC!is!in! High!Seas,!thus!control!of!fishing!effort!can!be!fully!controlled!by!the!countries!and!the!RFMOs.! Dependence! on! and! use! of! other! biological! resources! of! the! NMC! is! high,! and! population! growth! and! economic! development! will! similarly! drive! up! demand! and! extraction! of! these.! Fisheries! provide! the! most! clear! example! currently,! but! in! the! medium! term! transboundary! management! for! all! living! resources!and!ecosystem!services!in!the!NMC!will!be!required.!! 3.5.2. Natural gas and energy Oil!and!gas!development!is!already!a!game!changer!in!coastal!East!Africa!and!may!become!a!significant! factor! affecting! Madagascar! within! the! foreseeable! future.! Indirect! pressures! from! development! are! already! evident,! in! the! form! of! migration! to! coastal! areas! that! is! likely! to! increase! pressure! on! local! ecosystem! services,! and! rapid! infrastructure! and! coastal! development! in! centers! such! as! Pemba,! Mocimbo! da! Praia! and! Palma,! in! Mozambique.! These! towns! are! rapidly! developing! with! new! roads,! construction!of!industrial!facilities!and!housing,!and!rapid!inVflux!of!workers.!Future!direct!risks!include! inappropriate! infrastructure! development,! pollution,! and! governance! problems! associated! with! rapid! development! and! wealth! creation.! This! is! the! “curse”! of! many! countries! blessed! with! rich! mineral! or! energy! deposits! which! lead! to! dependency! on! commodity! export! revenue,! vulnerability! to! price! volatility!and!exchangeVrate!appreciation.!! East!African!coastal!countries!are!aware!of!the!challenges!and!the!potential!mitigating!solutions,!having! several!negative!examples!to!behold!from!Africa,!Asia!and!South!America,!and!some!positive!examples! relatively! close! to! home,! e.g.! Botswana.! Key! strategies! to! avoid! these! problems! include! improved! governance!processes!in!general,!investment!in!information!and!technical!resources,!adherence!to!the! best!practice!standards!such!as!in!the!Extractive!Industries!Transparency!Initiative!(EITI),!identifiecation! of!noVgo!zones,!and!oil!spill/pollution!rapid!response!measures.!! The!economies!of!the!NMC!will!modernize!at!a!dizzying!rate!with!scale!of!investment!and!incomes!from! natural!gas!extraction!that!will!materialize.!However,!the!energy!sectors!of!the!countries!of!the!region! are!at!present!extremely!impoverished,!based!mainly!on!firewood,!charcoal,!oil!and!some!hydroVelectric! power.!Paradoxically,!the!natural!gas!finds!could!leapfrog!the!energy!sector!into!the!21st!century!in!two! ways:! first,! by! financing! a! diversification! of! the! energy! sector! with! a! focus! on! renewable! sources! for! small! scale! users,! particularly! for! decentralized! generation! and! high! employment! content! to! improve! rural!energy!access!(e.g.!hydroVpower,!wind,!solar!PV,!solar!thermal!power!(water!heating),!geothermal,! ocean! and! bioenergy).! Second,! the! region! currently! plays! a! limited! role! in! global! climate! mitigation! debates.!Yet,!the!scale!of!the!natural!gas!deposits!offers!the!opportunity!for!transformative!lowVcarbon! electricity!generation!options!and!powering!lowVcarbon!industries.!The!potential!of!carbon!credits,!both! on!the!marine!side!(e.g.!mangroves!and!seagrass!beds)!and!on!land!(coastal!forests)!is!also!high,!which! modernization!of!the!energy!sectors!could!help!to!monetize.! ! 30! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! 3.5.3. Maritime trade The!Mozambique!Channel!is!a!highVrisk!area!for!marine!pollution!from!shipping,!as!approximately!30%! of!the!world’s!crude!oil!passes!southwards!through!the!Channel!with!around!5,000!tankers!carrying!500! million!tons!per!year.!This!traffic!has!intensified!in!recent!years,!prompting!a!major!project!supported!by! the!GEF!to!establish!a!marine!highway!route!(fig.!12)!to!avoid!environmentally!sensitive!areas!and!build! capacity!for!oil!spill!response95.!The!highway!is!still!under!consideration!by!the!IMO.!Building!capacity!in! the!countries!of!the!region!to!detect!and!cope!with!oil!spills!both!in!port!and!at!sea,!is!a!top!priority!for! managing!marine!impacts.!Piloting!remote!detection!of!oil!spills!may!provide!significant!early!warning! capability,!with!some!initial!steps!having!been!trialed!under!the!auspices!of!the!marine!highway!project.! ! Figure!12.!The!proposed!marine!highway,!restricting!transiting!vessels!to!a!20!nm!wide!corridor!passing!down!the! Mozambique!Channel.! Maritime!transport!from!ports!within!the!Mozambique!Channel!will!expand!rapidly!in!coming!years,!for! example! to! export! coal! from! massive! new! coal! finds! in! Mozambique’s! landVlocked! Tete! Province,! through!the!port!of!Nacala.!Wood!and!other!product!experts!from!here!and!NW!Madagascar!are!also! important!economically,!and!proposals!are!advanced!for!expanding!several!ports!in!the!NMC,!including! Nacala! and! Pemba! in! Mozambique.! Other! ports! with! significant! potential! for! expansion! include! Mahajanga!and!Diego!(Antsiranana)!in!northern!Madagascar.!In!the!context!of!global!security!(see!Piracy! section,! 2.8.2)! the! volume! of! shipping! in! the! Mozambique! Channel! is! primarily! controlled! by! the! Suez! Canal.! If! for! any! reason! transit! through! the! Canal! is! restricted,! e.g.! by! conflicts! that! further! reduced! safety!in!its!access!routes,!then!shipping!through!the!Mozambique!Channel!will!multiple!many!times96,! with!concomitant!increase!in!risks!and!threats.! 3.5.4. Coastal development and pollution LandVbased! pollution! was! the! subject! of! the! WIOLaB! project! also! funded! by! the! GEF,! with! a! second! phase!project!in!final!stages!of!approval,!dubbed!the!WIOSAP97.!Primary!pollution!sources!are!from!land! clearing!resulting!in!high!runoff,!urban!centers,!and!unregulated,!illegal!or!accidental!discharges!in!ports! and! industrial! developments.! Three! main! areas! of! landVbased! impacts! to! the! sea! were! assessed,! with! the! main! one! being! water! and! sediment! quality! degeneration.! Five! main! types! of! impacts! were! 31! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! identified:!microbial!contamination,!high!suspended!solids,!chemical!pollution,!marine!litter/solid!waste,! and!eutrophication/harmful!algal!blooms.!Hotspots!of!these!pollution!impacts!were!identified,!with!the! main!ones!in!the!MC!being!all!the!principal!ports!(Moroni,!Anjouan,!Diego,!NosyVBe,!Mahajanga,!Tulear! and! Maputo).! At! the! time! of! the! study! (2009),! Pemba,! Nacala! and! Beira! were! rated! as! emerging! hotspots,!and!Mtwara!was!not!mentioned.!! Alteration! of! fresh! water! flows! and! sediment! watershed! impacts! to! the! coastal! zone! have! been! significant.! ! The! four! most! frequent! reasons! for! flow! alterations:! (i)! overall! reduced! flow! due! to! consumptive! uses! of! water,! (ii)! increase! of! river! surface! area! along! sections! of! the! river! due! to! impoundment/damming,!(iii)!changed!seasonal!flow!patterns!(e.g.!releases!for!hydropowerVgeneration! during!the!dry!season),!(iv)!increased!floods!due!to!wetland!losses!(loss!of!water!retention!capacity)!are! all! projected! to! intensify! with! population! growth! and! economic! development! in! all! the! watersheds.! A! corollary!of!these,!alterations!in!sediment!delivery!to!the!coastal!zone,!whether!increases,!decreases!or! increased!variability!are!also!expected!to!intensify.!Larger!scale!drivers,!such!as!from!climate!change!are! also! expected! to! magnify! impacts! of! terrestrial! runoff! to! the! MC.! Interactions! of! the! large! freshwater! drainage! basins! with! the! marine! environment! are! contained! in! the! Global! International! Waters! Assessments!studies!from!the!region98.! All!sources!of!pollution!to!the!MC!are!expected!to!intensify!with!development!and!population!growth,! the! main! difference! among! scenarios! of! change! relate! to! how! well! potential! impacts! are! minimised,! mitigated! and! compensated! for.! Risks! from! pure! pollution! impacts! (e.g.! from! shipping,! spills,! runoff)! need! to! be! curtailed! through! regulation,! while! some! aspects! of! waste! management! represent! opportunities! through! recycling.! The! outcome! of! water! use! agreements! in! watersheds! will! determine! how! upstreamVdownstream! rights! and! responsibilities! are! traded! among! different! stakeholders,! with! potential!positive!benefits!for!all,!if!freshwater!flows!are!fully!accounted!for.! 3.5.5. Tourism Increased! and! higher! quality! tourism! is! seen! as! a! way! to! open! new! economic! opportunities! favoring! national! and! local! development! in! coastal! Tanzania! and! Mozambique.! The! tourism! development! strategies! in! these! countries! emphasize! the! importance! of! conserving! biodiversity,! natural! esthetic! values! and! MPAs.! NatureVbased! tourism! is! a! focus! for! smallVscale! development! of! tourism,! with! clear! policies!encouraging!this!on!Mohéli!(with!a!marine!park!and!its!satellite!terrestrial!reserves),!in!Mayotte,! and! in! the! Diana! Region! in! northern! Madagascar! (in! part! based! on! protected! areas).! Numerous! individual! investors! have! taken! measures! to! minimize! negative! impacts! in! order! not! to! damage! their! primary!assets,!providing!scope!for!improved!practices!throughout!the!region.! However!access!by!air,!poor!tourism!infrastructure!and!services,!and!in!some!places!local!resistance!to! private! sectorVcommunity! collaboration! are! significant! barriers! to! tourism! development.! Weak! governance! processes,! including! in! environmental! auditing! and! rates! of! growth! in! tourism! establishments! occurs,! particularly! where! air! access! improves.! The! Pemba! and! Nacala! areas! in! Mozambique! illustrate! this;! as! access! improves! for! trade! and! oil/gas! exploration,! a! rapid! growth! in! tourism!facilities!to!accommodate!and!entertain!visitors!is!occurring.!In!Madagascar!there!is!no!tourism! policy! or! strategy! in! effect,! so! developments! show! significant! variation! in! quality! and! environmental! respect.! Finally,! insecurity,! whether! due! to! political! events,! piracy! and! terrorism,! or! localized! crime! related!to!income!inequalities!and!inequitable!development!paths!all!threaten!tourism!growth.! A! regional! approach! for! tourism! has! not! yet! been! realized! within! the! NMC! –! to! date! investment! in! tourism!has!come!from!the!West!(Mozambique,!Madagascar,!Tanzania),!South!Africa!(Mozambique!and! the! Comoros),! or! France! (Mayotte),! with! little! attention! to! networking,! travel! links! and! infrastructure! that!links!sites!within!the!NMC!itself.!This!reflects!greater!interest!in!biodiversity!and!ecosystemVbased! management! based! on! networks! of! protected! areas! designed! with! the! currents! and! oceanographic! system!in!mind,!and!would!likely!bolster!tourism!growth.!It!is!clear!that!coastal!and!marine!tourism!in! the! NMC! is! greatly! underdeveloped! relative! to! its! potential.! The! current! national! strategies! in! Mozambique!and!Tanzania!will!soon!need!renewal!and!there!is!as!yet!no!strategy!for!either!Madagascar! or! the! Comoros.! In! general,! the! countries! recognize! the! linkages! between! conservation! areas! and! ! 32! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! sustainable! tourism! development,! and! the! contribution! of! both! to! poverty! reduction! and! economic! growth,! especially! regarding! local! communities.! An! interest! in! regional! tourism! is! developing99,! alongside! some! initiatives! to! develop! lowVimpact! highVrevenue! destinations! that! can! spearhead! the! development!of!a!tourism!industry!that!meets!the!goals!of!the!five!capitals!approach.! 3.6. Human capital The!problems!related!to!Human!capital!and!technical!capacity!pervade!the!countries!of!the!region,!with! education! resources! stretched! by! the! rapidly! growing! populations! of! the! last! 3V4! decades! and! inadequate! investment! in! educational! resources,! infrastructure! and! staff.! Useful! insight! may! be! obtained!by!identifying!models!for!educational!advancement!that!have!worked,!and!the!most!relevant! may!be!South!Korea,!which!has!advanced!from!a!position!similar!position!after!the!Korean!war!in!the! late!1950s,!to!now!being!rated!as!the!country!most!supportive!of!innovation!in!the!world100.! 3.6.1. Formal education Formal! education! in! NMC! countries,! with! the! exception! of! France! (Mayotte),! faces! many! challenges.! Madagascan,!Tanzanian,!Comorian!and!Mozambican!children!experience!less!than!5!years!of!schooling,! even! though! laws! are! in! place! for! them! to! complete! 8V10! years! (fig.! 5).! In! all! these! countries,! the! increasing!number!of!children!means!that!a!large!proportion!of!students!never!get!to!attend!secondary! or!higher!levels!of!education,!and!enter!the!workforce!with!few!employment!skills.!Taken!out!of!their! local! environments! for! those! years! of! school,! they! often! lack! the! practical! and! traditional! knowledge! their!parents!had!for!agriculture!and!other!such!activities.!With!increasing!urbanization,!more!and!more! children!leave!school!in!an!environment!where!there!is!no!access!to!land!and!water!for!them!to!farm!or! make!a!livelihood!from.! Investing!in!formal!education!is!also!increasingly!necessary!with!the!onset!of!the!information!age,!where! interaction! with! technology! (mobile! phones,! the! internet)! increasingly! defines! modern! life! and! is! magnifying!the!divide!between!rich!and!poor101.!! 3.6.2. Technical and advanced capacity building The! TransVboundary! Diagnostic! Analyses! of! the! three! sister! GEF! programmes! identified! capacity! as! a! major!gap!in!technical!areas:!“Limited!and!often!inadequate!human!capacity!is!also!common!to!nearly! all!of!the!sectors!and!encompasses,!for!example,!inadequate!governance!capacity,!research!capacity!and! capacity! for! fulfilling! financial,! operational! and! human! resource! functions.! Security! concerns,! political! instability,!weak!service!delivery,!conflicts!between!sectors!and!centralised!control!and!overVregulation! were! also! identified! as! problems! in! some! sectors! and! countries”.! These! gaps! were! incorporated! into! National!Training!Plans!and!contributed!to!development!of!the!Strategic!Action!Programmes!(SAPs)! 102.! Similar!studies!in!other!sectors!single!out!technical!capacity!as!among!the!most!consistent!and!largest! constraints!to!successful!development!and!advancement.!! Of! critical! important! to! the! NMC! will! be! the! development! of! capacity! building! programmes! across! all! relevant! technical! levels! –! in! private! sector! areas,! natural! and! social! areas,! in! governance! and! more.! Given!the!vast!array!of!topics,!suffice!it!to!point!out!that!a!tiered!approach!building!the!foundations!of! basic!education!in!the!school!systems!and!in!adult/informal!education!(section!3.6.1)!linked!to!technical! and! advanced! education! to! build! the! professional! cadres! needed! for! successful! development,! is! essential.!Undertaking!this!in!a!partnership!context!recognizing!the!role!of!the!state!in!formal!education,! but!also!of!the!private!sector!and!nonVgovernment!sectors,!may!provide!the!most!targeted!approach!to! building!capacity!in!areas!most!useful!to!delivering!sustainable!economic!growth.!Turning!the!threat!of! low! technical! capacity! to! advantage! through! targeted! capacity! building! will! require! focused! capacity! assessments! and! investment! in! training! with! sufficient! leadVtimes! to! when! national! and! regional! capacity!is!required!to!be!fully!developed,!to!deliver!on!a!complex!set!of!targets!across!the!five!capitals.! 33! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! One!area!that!is!of!critical!importance!for!the!five!capitals!approach!is!the!ability!to!assess!information! from! multiple! and! different! disciplines! relevant! to! each! capital,! and! that! this! information! must! be! geographically!specific!over!the!five!countries!of!the!NMC.!Marine!Spatial!Planning!(MSP)!is!an!approach! that!has!recently!developed!and!defined!as!“a!public!process!of!analyzing!and!allocating!the!spatial!and! temporal! distribution! of! human! activities! in! marine! areas! to! achieve! ecological,! economic,! and! social! objectives!that!are!usually!specified!through!a!political!process”103.!In!many!ways!it!is!akin!to!Integrated! Coastal! Zone! Management! approaches! but! explicitly! over! ocean! space.! Building! capacity! in! MSP! is! among!the!first!priorities!for!enabling!the!approach!advocated!here!to!develop.! 3.7. Institutional capital The! institutional! mechanisms! needed! for! multiVcountry! governance! of! the! EEZs! in! the! Mozambique! Channel!are!not!as!yet!developed.!With!a!primary!requirement!to!align!the!interests!and!sovereignty!of! the! relevant! countries,! plus! integrate! the! interests! of! the! private! and! civil! society! sectors! within! and! across!the!countries,!this!institutional!capacity!cannot!yet!be!defined.!The!Nairobi!Convention!and!other! interVgovernmental!institutions!(section!2.5.2)!provide!a!foundation!for!this,!but!not!as!yet!a!template! for!how!to!move!forward.!A!key!consideration!is!the!need!to!develop!the!rationale!for!governance!of!the! shared!space,!and!mechanisms!through!which!to!do!this104.! Examples! of! possible! institutional! frameworks! can! be! found! in! other! regions! (Table! 11),! but! each! country!and!region!of!the!world!has!its!specificity,!and!early!work!in!the!NMC!initiative!will!be!needed!to! identify! what! the! countries! and! stakeholders! are! comfortable! with! in! moving! forward.! The! academic! world!can!also!recommend!various!forms!of!governance,!and!the!nature!of!threats!to!come!(e.g.!section! 3.8)!will!impose!certain!characteristics!that!are!desirable!to!meet,!such!as!adaptive!capacity!in!the!face! of!climate!and!global!changes,!inclusiveness!and!accountability.!The!range!of!possibilities!could!extend! across! a! full! scope! from! loose! agreements! to! align! policies! and! decisions! across! country! borders,! to! a! formal!commission!with!representation!from!each!state!and!authority!to!make!decisions!on!uses!in!the! defined!region.! Table! 11.! Some! case! studies/examples! of! institutional! mechanisms! selected! by! participating! states! in! governing! common!ocean!regions.! Baltic!Sea!–!a!highly!enclosed!marine!region!of!great!importance!to!the!surrounding!countries!(N.!Europe),!with! 105 several!linked!interVgovernmental!mechanisms!underway :! • Convention! on! the! Protection! of! the! Marine! Environment! of! the! Baltic! Sea! Area,! or! Helsinki! Commission! (HELCOM),! resulting! from! the! UNEP! Regional! Seas! Programme’s! and! sister! convention! to! the! Nairobi! Convention,!ratified!by!9!countries.!First!established!in!1980!and!updated!in!2000.! • Vision!and!Strategies!around!the!Baltic!Sea!(VASAB)!–!a!Ministerial!CoVoperation!forum!for!spatial!planning! and!development,!covering!11!countries,!initiated!in!1992.! • The! HELCOMVVASAB! Maritime! Spatial! Planning! Working! Group,! established! in! 2010! and! coVchaired! by! HELCOM! and! VASAB! to! ensure! cooperation! among! the! Baltic! Sea! Region! countries! for! coherent! regional! Maritime!Spatial!Planning!processes!in!the!Baltic!Sea.! Caribbean! Sea! –! a! broad! range! of! interVgovernmental! institutions! have! mandates! in! the! Caribbean,! often! of! sectoral!nature.!For!example,!the!Cartagena!Convention!and!CARICOM!are!two!of!the!broadest,!the!former!being!a! UNEP!Regional!Seas!programme,!like!the!Nairobi!Convention,!the!latter!a!community!and!common!market!across! the! member! states.! Arguments! for! integrated! governance! linking! these! institutions! and! in! a! global! context! with! 106 other!regions!have!been!made!to!build!a!truly!integrated!Regional!Ocean!Governance!Framework!(ROGF) .! Celtic! Sea! –! the! Celtic! Seas! partnership! focuses! on! an! area! of! sea! in! the! northeast! Atlantic! involving! England,! France,!Northern!Ireland,!Republic!of!Ireland,!Scotland!and!Wales.!It!is!a!partnership!of!government!and!economic! sectors,! initiated! through! a! specific! mechanism! and! funding! brought! together! by! the! Celtic! Seas! Partnership.! It! aims! to! bring! together! governments! and! stakeholders! to! deliver! ‘Good! Environmental! Status’! for! the! shared! systems!in!the!Celtic!Sea.!While!the!partnership!leads!on!engagement!and!involvement,!it!puts!responsibility!for! 107 achieving!success!in!the!hands!of!governments!and!economic!sectors .! !! ! ! 34! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! The! value! of! the! MSP! framework! that! is! presented! for! initial! steps! is! that! the! nature! of! the! agreements! that! countries! and! partners! wish! to! take! in! reconciling! activities! across! the! capitals,! countries!and!sectors,!will!help!identify!the!‘political!process’!or!institutional!mechanism!that!effective! MSP!requires108.!Thus!in!facilitating!the!MSP!process,!the!countries!and!principal!stakeholders!will!over! time!come!to!define!the!institutional!mechanisms!they!jointly!want!to!put!in!place.! 3.8. Cross-cutting issues 3.8.1. Climate change Climate!impacts!in!the!broader!East!African!and!WIO!regions!have!been!widely!documented,!including! changes!in!seasons!and!rainfall!patterns!resulting!in!floods!and!droughts,!and!increasing!seawater!and! air!temperatures.!However,!the!complete!absence!of!long!term!climate!datasets!from!the!NMC!region,! including!of!air!and!sea!temperatures,!rainfall!records,!sea!level,!ocean!pH!and!other!factors,!preclude! firm! conclusions! on! the! degree! of! climate! change.! The! most! wellVreported! climate! impact! is! coral! bleaching109,! which! has! been! reported! widely! in! the! NMC,! a! clear! indication! of! the! impacts! of! higher! temperatures! and/or! greater! fluctuations! such! as! from! the! El! Niño! Southern! Oscillation! (ENSO)! and! Indian!Ocean!Dipole!(IOD)110.!However!the!degree!of!impact!of!coral!bleaching!within!the!NMC!is!varied,! with! some! studies! reporting! very! low! impacts! at! some! sites,! while! others! report! very! high! impacts! at! other!sites.!Attempts!to!explain!the!low!degree!of!impact!at!some!sites!result!in!uncertain!conclusions!of! the!NMC!being!a!climate!refuge!due!to!low!rates!of!warming!there,!though!other!interpretations!of!the! same! results! would! suggest! the! low! exposure! to! warming! puts! the! region! at! high! risk! under! future! inevitable!change.!The!high!degree!of!connectivity!in!the!NMC!suggest,!however,!that!reefs!in!the!region! may! have! a! high! capacity! for! regeneration! due! to! larval! connectivity! from! healthy! reefs,! a! hypothesis! supported! by! high! observed! rates! of! coral! recruitment! at! many! sites! in! the! NMC! as! well! as! observed! high!recovery!from!bleaching111!and!modeling!of!ocean!currents112.! Other! climate! change! impacts! that! are! equally! or! more! serious! from! socioVecological! and! economic! perspectives! include! sea! level! rise,! ocean! acidification,! changes! in! agroVecological! regimes,! changes! in! weather! and! rainfall! regimes! including! storm! frequency! and! intensity,! habitat/species! migration,! terrestrial! runoff,! and! coastal! erosion.! Climate! change! impacts! also! exacerbate! other! anthropogenic! direct! stress! such! as! overfishing,! habitat! degradation/loss,! inappropriate! coastal! infrastructure! development!and!pollution.!Those!studies!that!have!been!conducted!(e.g.,!in!Tanzania113)!indicate!that! climate! change! impacts! may! have! major! economic! and! social! impacts! if! not! addressed,! including! massive!displacement!of!coastal!residents,!severe!flooding,!major!land!loss!to!sea!level!rise!and!erosion,! and!many!billions!of!dollars!of!residual!loss!each!year.! At!the!regional!level,!the!threat!of!climate!change!is!taken!seriously,!with!the!major!intergovernmental! initiatives!all!taking!stock!to!develop!climate!change!strategies.!The!Nairobi!Convention!commissioned!a! policy! paper! based! on! a! regional! conference! for! its! 7th! Conference! of! Parties114,! to! identify! a! climate! change! strategy! for! implementation,! in! the! context! of! Integrated! Coastal! Zone! Management.! The! Western!Indian!Ocean!Coastal!Challenge!(WIOCC)!has!climate!adaptation!as!one!of!its!priority!themes,! together! with! promoting! resilient! ecosystems,! sustainable! livelihoods,! and! human! security.! This! combination!of!goals!underlines!the!value!of!the!Capitals!approach,!by!considering!multiple!capitals!in! synergy,!to!achieve!balanced!development.! 3.8.2. Security and piracy Piracy!in!the!Indian!Ocean!emerged!in!2009!as!a!major!threat!to!maritime!trade,!then!subsided!in!2012! as!a!result!of!antiVpiracy!efforts!by!the!international!community.!While!the!drivers!of!piracy!are!poorly! described,! its! impact! has! been! severe.! ! Pirates! operating! in! the! Gulf! of! Aden! have! made! about! $120! million!per!year!in!net!profits,!cost!the!shipping!industry!between!$900!million!and!$3.3!billion!per!year! in!direct!costs!(e.g.!security!personnel,!etc)!and!cost!the!global!economy!$18!billion!dollars!per!year115.! Countries! of! the! WIO! have! been! particularly! affected! as! far! as! 12oS,! into! the! northern! Mozambique! 35! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! Channel!and!east!of!the!tip!of!Madagascar.!Tourism,!trade!and!other!oceanVbound!activities!have!either! been!stopped!or!suffered!increased!costs,!and!development!prospects!such!as!from!offshore!oil!and!gas! deposits!have!been!delayed!by!the!pulse!of!piracy.! The! threat! of! piracy! has! been! relevant! to! this! initiative! in! the! northern! Mozambique! Channel! as! countries! and! other! stakeholders! may! be! reticent! to! invest! in! long! term! development! where! unpredictable! risk! is! high.! Nevertheless,! some! aspects! of! a! regional! initiative! such! as! this! (see! next! section)!can!assist!in!combatting!lawlessness!on!the!sea!through!investment!in!transparent!information! systems! as! needed! for! Marine! Spatial! Planning.! Nevertheless,! the! most! significant! factor! that! led! to! a! decline!in!piracy!was!the!presence!of!armed!security!personnel!on!ships,!providing!a!strong!deterrent! against! attacks116.! This! emphasizes! the! need! for! an! initiative! such! as! that! proposed! here! to! be! aligned/integrated!with!other!leu!components!such!as!the!security!apparatus!of!states,!the!right!level!of! deterrence! and! equipment! for! such! a! coastal/enclosed! marine! region117,! and! interVgovernmental! agreements!that!maintain!security!for!long!term!stability.! 4. A Strategic Framework for Securing benefits from the natural assets of the NMC 4.1. Foundations for an initiative The!previous!sections!demonstrate!that!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!(NMC)!holds!natural!assets! of! both! great! importance! and! vulnerability.! Much! of! the! economic! activity! in! the! region! is! directly! dependent!on!the!natural!assets!of!the!sea!and!coastlines!–!whether!living!(e.g.!fishing)!or!mineral!(e.g.! natural! gas)! resources,! or! based! on! its! geography! and! beauty! (e.g.! tourism),! with! a! tight! interV dependence!of!society!and!environment.!The!region!faces!alternative!futures,!which!can!be!directed!by! policy! choices.! At! the! dawn! of! a! coming! phase! of! exponential! growth! in! resource! use,! wealth! and! population,!now!is!a!critical!time!for!the!countries!and!major!stakeholders!to!make!choices!about!which! future!to!realise.! 4.1.1. Vision A!major!initiative!requires!a!vision!to!guide!the!choices!and!actions!of!all!involved,!and!the!formulation! of! one! relevant! to! the! NMC! must! be! developed! by! the! partners! involved.! ! Under! the! umbrella! of! the! Nairobi! Convention,! three! GEFVfunded! regional! programmes! have! undertaken! national! and! regional! assessments! and! strategic! actions! focused! on! landVbased! impacts! to! the! sea,! marine! ecosystem! processes! and! fisheries! (see! section! 3.1).! These! contributed! to! the! development! of! a! Strategic! Action! Programme!for!the!WIO!(WIOSAP),!declaring!the!vision!“People!of!the!region!prospering!from!a!health! Western!Indian!Ocean”,!which!was!endorsed!by!the!member!countries!to!the!Convention.!To!succeed,! an! initiative! to! secure! the! future! of! the! NMC! needs! a! vision! focused! on! its! specific! needs! and! opportunities.! By! building! on! the! vision! of! the! WIOSAP! identified! by! the! countries,! the! NMC! initiative! can!assure!it!remains!consistent!with!broader!processes,!while!focusing!on!its!specific!priorities.!! 4.1.2. Approach Implementing! a! vision! that! delivers! on! social,! economic! and! environmental! goals! requires! approaches! that!are!focused!jointly!on!people,!to!achieve!their!prosperity,!and!the!environment,!to!assure!the!base! on!which!prosperity!is!founded!is!not!degraded.!With!high!levels!of!poverty!in!the!region,!and!economic! sectors!both!local!and!international!vying!to!make!the!most!of!the!region,!a!perspective!is!needed!that! focuses!on!wealth!generation!and!livelihood!security,!across!short!and!long!time!scales,!from!small!to! large! scales,! and! across! different! sectors.! Globally,! the! ‘triple! bottom! line’! for! sustainable! economic! development! V! social! equity,! environmental! health! and! wealth! creation! has! been! widely! accepted118.! Achieving!all!three!together!is!challenging,!especially!where!large!sectors!of!society!are!dependent!on! environmental!goods!and!ecosystems!services!(i.e.!wild!fish,!rain!and!river!water,!etc.)!all!public!goods! that! are! traditionally! seen! as! limitless! but! increasingly! in! short! supply,! including! in! the! NMC.! Two! ! 36! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! approaches! build! a! foundation! for! achieving! success! in! this! context! V! the! Sustainable! Livelihoods/Capitals! approach! and! the! Green/Blue! Economy! approach! V! because! they! recognize! the! value! of! natural! processes! that! sustain! economic! productivity,! but! equally! importantly,! recognise! the! needs!and!perspectives!of!people.! ! 4.1.3. Five Capitals The! Capitals! Approach! recognises! that! wealth! is! generated! from! assets,! and! that! it! is! necessary! to! nurture! and! even! enhance! these! assets! to! maximise! benefits.!Financial!capital!and!manufactured!capital!are! the! typical! assets! that! are! recognised! in! traditional! business!and!economic!models,!here!labelled!Economic! Capital,!but!the!Capitals!Approach!recognises!that!these! are! just! one! of! a! set! of! key! assets! V! the! others! include! natural!capital!(from!which!all!manufactured!goods!are! derived),! social! capital! (e.g.! community! networks! and! institutions),! human! capital! (e.g.! education! and! health)! and! institutional! capital! (e.g.! institutions! and! governance! arrangements)119.! The! value! of! this! ! approach! is! that! financial! and! manufactured! capital! or! gains! are! not! prioritised! over! and! above! the! others,! Figure! 13.! The! five! capitals! of! the! Capitals! particularly! when! maximising! them! alone! results! in! Approach,! adapted! from! the! Global! Partnership! for!Oceans’!Blue!Ribbon!Panel.! degradation!and!lost!value!in!one!or!more!of!the!other! capitals.!This!approach!has!been!applied!successfully!in! ! economies!highly!dependent!on!natural!resources!and!with!a!low!proportion!of!economic!activity!in!the! cash!economy,!through!the!Sustainable!Livelihoods!Approach120.!It!has!typically!also!focused!on!smaller! scales,!such!as!at!village!levels,!but!is!equally!applicable!to!regional!scales!of!ocean!management121!and! is!the!foundation!for!new!thinking!in!the!banking!sector!on!long!term!financial!investment!at!the!World! Economic!Forum122.! This!framework!has!been!used!here!to!describe!the!major!sectors!or!assets!in!the!NMC!region!(Section! 2)!as!well!as!to!present!threats!and!potential!opportunities!to!them!(Section!3).!Using!this!approach!the! goal!to!maximise!wealth!is!provided!with!tangible!statements!for!improving!conditions!across!the!five! assets!rather!than!just!a!focus!on!economic!growth.!The!approach!also!internalises!the!concept!that!an! activity!must!not!undermine!or!degrade!any!capital,!thus!meeting!the!environmental!and!social!goals!of! conservation,!equity!and!justice,!to!ensure!balanced!growth.!! 4.1.4. Green and blue economic approaches 37! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! At! national! levels,! the! Green! Economy! approach! is! committed! to! development! paths! that! maintain,! enhance! and,! where! necessary,! rebuild! natural! capital! as! a! critical! economic! asset! and! as! a! source! of! public!benefits,!especially!for!poor!people!whose!livelihoods!and!security!depend!on!nature.!!This!makes! it! compatible! with! the! Capitals! Approach.! Already! Mozambique! has! committed! to! a! Green! economic! path!for!development,!launching!a!Roadmap!at! the!RIO+20!Conference!in!Brazil,!and!currently! Box 2 - five recommendations from the finalizing!a!Five!Year!action!plan!that!underpins! Helsinki Commission for turning adversity to its! Five! Year! Master! Plan! for! development123.! opportunity All! the! countries! of! the! region! expressed! their! commitment! to! the! Green! Economy! approach! (See!Section!2.1.1)! at! the! 7th! Conference! of! Parties! to! Nairobi! Focus!on!high4impact!initiatives.!In!each!sector!and!capital,!what! are!the!strategic!priorities!to!focus!on?!E.g.!Habitat!degradation,! Convention!in!December!2012124.! The! Blue! Economic! approach! has! become! popular! in! recent! years,! including! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean125.! Typically,! the! approach! focuses! on! two! principal! axes! V! the! role! of! the! oceans! in! national! and! global! economic! affairs,! and! thus! a! need! to! develop! national! and! international! policies! that! ensure! the!health!of!the!ocean,!and!the!importance!of! the! oceans! and! marine! ecosystems! in! carbon! sequestration!and!mitigation!of!climate!change! drivers.! Of! great! importance,! however,! is! that! ‘Blue! Economy’! does! not! just! relate! to! extraction! of! wealth! from! marine! resources,! e.g.! through! unsustainable! fishing,! or! highV impact!mining/oil!extraction!–!the!term!implies! an! approach! that! is! beneficial! and! lowVimpact! for! the! Oceans.! For! maritime! countries! committed!to!a!green!economic!approach,!the! terms! blue! and! green! economy! may! be! interchangeable,! both! encapsulating! the! need! to! incorporate! ocean! health! and! sustainability! into! national! policyVmaking,! and! transformation! from! Business! as! Usual! scenarios! to! ones! with! positive! environmental/social!outcomes.! 4.1.5. Ecosystem services minimize! nutrient! and! contaminant! inputs,! and! damaging! practices.!To!reduce!overfishing!develop!longVterm!management! plans! for! all! major! fisheries,! set! a! target! of! zero! for! unwanted! catches! and! discarded! fish.! In! tourism,! focus! on! standards,! incentives! and! marketing/branding;! in! the! energy! sector,! focus! on! accountability,! pollution/discharge! standards,! and! clear! procedures!and!finance!for!mitigation/! Empower! regional! bodies! and! increase! accountability.! Without! authority! and! acV! countability,! meaningful! progress! is! unlikely.! For! the! NMC,! develop! a! governance! system! amongst! the! countries!that!is!inclusive!of!the!private!sector!and!civil!society!in! a!partnership!that!ensures!mutual!accountability.!! Take!an!integrated,!coordinated!approach.!With!such!a!complex! socioVeconomic! and! environmental! system! as! in! the! NMC,! and! interest! groups! at! very! different! stages! and! capacities! for! involvement,!the!Capitals!approach!ensures!that!progress!in!one! sector! does! not! undermine! the! condition! or! progress! in! other! sectors.! With! a! wellVfunctioning! partnership! structure,! an! integrated!approach!to!developing!the!NMC!should!be!possible.! Drive! innovation! with! commercial! incentives.! Not! just! sanctions! for! polluting! or! bad! practices,! but! commercial! incentives! ! need! to! be! used! to! drive! innovation! and! investment.! Unnecessary! hurdles!and!bureaucracy!should!be!removed.! Transform!the!region!into!a!hub!for!blue!and!green!technology.! The!financial!and!investment!strength!of!the!region,!as!a!result! of! oil/gas! development! as! well! as! other! sectors,! can! drive! strategic! investments! to! raise! the! rate! of! innovation! and! commercialization! of! ideas.! Through! a! holistic! perspective! on! environmental! and! social! sectors,! publicV! private! partnerships! can! be! encouraged! to! leverage! resources! and! share! risks,! to! develop!the!knowledge/innovation!capital!of!the!region.! A! significant! challenge! for! effectively! considering!natural!capital!in!national!and!larger!scale!economic!planning,!and!effectively!implementing! a! green/blue! economic! approach,! is! how! to! measure! the! value! of! natural! capital.! In! recent! years! the! concepts! of! ecosystem! goods! and! services! have! grown! to! replace! the! historic! focus! on! ‘resource! extraction’,! given! momentum! by! the! Millenium! Ecosystem! Assessment126,! and! now! culminating! in! the! formation! of! the! Intergovernmental! scienceVpolicy! Platform! on! Biodiversity! and! Ecosystem! Services! (IPBES)!as!a!global!forum!for!bringing!ecosystem!service!concepts!into!global!decisionVmaking!processes.! However!tools!for!accounting!for!the!value!of!natural!capital!(as!well!as!the!other!3!capitals!other!than! economic! capital)! are! rudimentary! or! theoretical,! and! little! data! exists! especially! at! local! and! subV regional!scales.! A! recent! analysis! of! the! total! annual! economic! value! of! coastal! ecosystem! goods! and! services! in! the! wider!WIO!estimated!that!half!of!these!may!be!attributed!to!the!area!designated!as!the!NMC!alone,!at!a! ! 38! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! 127 ! value!of!over!12.5!billion!US$!per!year .!However!to!have!a!chance!to!deal!with!the!complex!issues! highlighted!in!this!document,!across!the!multiple!sectors!and!capitals,!finer!scale!data!on!ecosystem! service! values! is! required.! Further,! this! data! must! be! consistent! across! the! countries! of! the! NMC,! and! ideally!in!comparison!to!other!parts!of!the!WIO!outside!of!the!NMC.!To!this!end,!a!report!on!ecosystem! services!of!the!NMC!was!commissioned128,!parts!of!which!are!already!quoted!here!(section!1.4.6),!and!to! be!used!as!a!foundation!for!next!steps!in!building!the!NMC!initiative.!! 4.1.6. Five Principles for sustainable ocean development Drawing! together! the! small! scale! of! the! Capitals! Approach! and! the! large! scale! of! the! Green! Economic! approach!is!a!challenge,!and!one!that!is!addressed!for!oceans!and!marine!systems!in!advice!developed! by! the! Blue! Ribbon! Panel! (BRP)! of! the! Global! Partnership! for! Oceans129.! In! it,! five! Principles! are! identified,!adapted!from!the!classical!5Vcapitals!approach,!and!emphasizing!the!relevance!of!the!Capitals! Approach!across!all!scales!of!governance!for!marine!systems.!! The! BRP! emphasized! that! a! key! problem! of! the! oceans! is! that! of! common! pool! resources,! or! ‘public! goods’130.!Historically,!access!to!ocean!resources!has!been!open!and!all!members!of!society!have!or!feel! a! right! to! exploit! and! derive! benefits! from! this! public! good,! particularly! as! a! last! resort! when! other! options! fail.! The! problem! occurs! where! impacts! to! the! public! good! cause! it! to! degrade! and/or! the! person!causing!the!impact!bears!little!or!no!cost,!while!wider!society,!or!the!most!vulnerable!sectors!of! society,!do.!Key!to!the!BRP!advice!is!the!institutional!and!governance!framework!necessary!to!address! the! problems! of! common! pool! resources! integrated! across! the! five! principles,! through! partnership! between!all!major!stakeholders.!! 4.1.7. Partnerships Emerging!best!practice!finds!that!publicVprivate!partnerships!–!of!governments,!public!and!civil!society! organizations,! the! private! sector! and! NGOs/academia! –! are! a! necessary! platform! to! optimize! the! generation! and! sharing! of! benefits! from! the! abundant! resources! of! a! region,! while! ensuring! that! the! primary! assets! are! not! degraded! through! individual! or! sectoral! approaches.! This! finding! matches! the! elements! of! Institutional! Capital! presented! in! this! document,! of! the! importance! of! national! and! international!institutions,!private!sector!bodies,!civil!society!organisations,!and!others,!in!the!NMC.! An!additional!example!of!this!type!of!partnership!approach!is!the!move!toward!coVmanagement!in!small! scale! fisheries131.! Most! NMC! countries! have! implemented! policies! and! regulations! to! facilitate! this,! where! government! departments! relinquish! some! level! of! control! and! authority! to! local! fisher! associations,!and!both!partners!play!a!role!in!the!joint!management!of!fishing!resources.!The!ownership! and!empowerment!this!gives!to!community!groups!has!helped!to!build!a!sense!of!stewardship,!and!the! desire! by! communities! to! manage! their! natural! capital! sustainably! by! protecting! key! areas,! banning! damaging!practices,!and!limiting!open!access!to!resources.!! These! approaches! are! consistent! with! global! trends! to! increase! the! participation! and! responsibility! of! citizens!groups!in!management!and!democratic!institutions132,!and!may!be!a!foundation!for!success!in!a! NMC! initiative.! Accordingly,! Institutional! Capital! has! been! identified! as! one! of! the! priority! pillars! for! moving! forward,! treating! the! governance! agreements! between! multiple! partners! as! a! key! asset! that! must!be!built!up,!alongside!the!others.! 4.1.8. Marine Spatial Planning for the NMC All!these!elements!describe!a!complex!initiative!involving!multiple!countries,!decisionVmaking!processes,! economic! sectors,! sectors! of! society,! knowledge! systems! and! more.! The! ability! to! generate! sufficient! information!and!knowledge,!and!to!process!it!in!ways!that!support!rational!decisions!(ie.!the!Knowledge! Capital! of! the! initiative)! will! be! a! fundamental! factor! affecting! success! in! the! initiative.! To! this! end,! Marine!Spatial!Planning!(MSP)!is!growing!in!recognition!globally!as!an!approach!that!could!satisfy!this! need.!Most!importantly!for!this!initiative,!MSP!has!two!primary!pillars:! 39! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! a) it!requires!participants!to!agree!on!a!shared!vision!that!will!guide!all!negotiations!and!decisions,!and! b) it!provides!an!informatics!basis!(through!the!geographic!display!and!analysis!of!information)!that!is! intuitive!and!understandable!by!all,!while!having!the!tools!to!deal!with!complex!and!very!different! datasets!and!relationships.! MSP!can!thereby!be!a!primary!foundation!for!the!initiative,!bringing!together!the!diverse!data!on!each! Capital!and!other!relevant!factors,!to!be!compared!against!one!another!to!support!decisions.!Investing! in! MSP! is! thus! a! prime! foundation! for! the! initiative,! as! it! directly! supports! Governance! and! Knowledge/Human! capitals,! while! providing! a! common! ground! for! monitoring! and! data! across! all! the! capitals.! 4.2. A Strategic Framework for change in the NMC 4.2.1. A working vision The!working!vision!for!the!NMC!can!interpret!the!WIOSAP!vision!to!make!it!explicit!to!the!geography,! natural!resources!and!people!of!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel,!and!guide!the!countries!towards!a! sustainable!future!in!a!green/blue!economic!model,!rather!than!the!‘fuelled!business!as!usual’!scenario! that!is!otherwise!very!possible.!This!would!make!the!NMC!programme!a!placeVbased!initiative!to!deliver! on!the!priorities!established!under!the!WIOSAP!and!related!regional!SAPs!of!the!GEF!projects,!as!well!as! other!national!and!international!processes.!A!draft!vision,!for!further!development!by!the!countries!and! partners!can!be!stated!as!“the!people,!countries!and!economies!of!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel! prosper!in!a!sustainable!future!founded!on!the!natural!and!cultural!assets!and!diversity!of!the!region”.! 4.2.2. Theory of Change and Outcome Mapping To!address!the!problems!and!opportunities!in!the!NMC,!a!Strategic!Framework!has!been!developed!that! provides! for! an! inclusive! framework! for! involvement! of! all! stakeholders,! from! smallest! to! largest,! to! achieve!sustainable!growth!for!the!region.!It!is!based!on!a!Theory!of!Change!which!holds!that:! ! all!stakeholders,!from!largest!to!smallest,!and!of!all!cultures,!must!be!engaged!in!an!inclusive!and! transparent!partnership;!! ! the! future! wellVbeing! and! wealth! of! all! depend! on! maintaining! and! enhancing! the! primary! assets! that!support!human!society;! ! nature!provides!irreplaceable!services!and!assets!on!which!we!all!depend;! ! It! is! thus! in! the! interests! of! all! stakeholders! and! economic! sectors! to! assure! the! protection! and! sustainability!of!natureVbased!enterprises!and!broader!services!provided!by!nature.! The! objectives! for! a! large,! complex! and! long! term! partnership! are! developed! through! a! process! of! mapping!‘pathways!of!change’,!or!identifying!long!term!outcomes.!These!identify!what!success!will!look! like,!in!the!eyes!of!the!members!of!the!partnership.!These!pathways!enable!the!partnership!to!identify! the! cascade! from! long! term! to! short! term! outcomes! and! thereby! to! specific! actions! that! need! to! be! implemented!to!achieve!the!vision.!! The!WIOSAP!and!NMC!visions!are!focused!on!the!inextricable!links!between:! People! –! to! deliver! wealth,! livelihood! security,! welfare,! equity,! and! justice,! for! all!cultures!and!religions,!over!short!and! long!time!scales;! Nature/environment! –! our! planet! through! healthy! ecosystems,! is! the! core! provider! for! all! aspects! of! human! and!economic!wealth,!through!living!resources,!as!well!as! mineral/fossil!ones.! 4.2.3. Five Capitals for building a green economic approach/sustainable ocean use Combining!the!Capitals!Approach!and!the!Global!Partnership!for!Ocean’s!Blue!Ribbon!Panel’s!advice!for! large!scale!ocean!management133,!five!long!term!outcomes!to!achieve!the!vision!can!be!described:!! 1)! the! Institutional! Capital! of! the! NMC! is! built,! through! a! Partnership! between! the! countries,! private! ! 40! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! sector!and!civil!society!that!enables!shared!decisionVmaking!and!sustains!commitments!that!deliver!a! viable!partnership!and!the!means!to!build!the!other!capitals.! 2)! the! Economic! Capital! of! the! NMC! is! grown,! assuring! food! and! livelihood! security,! and! delivering! wealth!and!prosperity!equitably!to!the!peoples!of!the!region!and!into!the!future.! 3)! the! Natural! Capital! of! the! NMC! is! enhanced,! such! that! critical! ecosystems,! species! and! ecological! processes! are! protected! and! enhanced,! supporting! the! people! and! economies! of! the! region! into! the! future.!! 4)! the! Human! and! Knowledge! Capital! of! the! NMC! is! built,! providing! for! the! decisionVmaking! and! technological! progress! that! will! assure! the! future! of! the! region,! and! an! informed! and! knowledgeable! society.!! 5)! the! Social! Capital! of! the! NMC! is! enhanced! and! celebrated,! ensuring! the! health,! wellVbeing! and! freedoms!of!the!people!of!the!region!in!a!harmonious!and!just!society.!! These! five! strategic! outcomes,! on! a! time! scale! of! over! 25! years,! can! guide! the! planning! process! and! identification!of!shorter!term!outcomes!and!key!results,!that!will!enable!partners!to!identify!activities!to! implement.! Further! steps! in! the! development! of! the! partnership! will! need! to! refine! the! outcome! statements,! updating! them! to! reflect! the! aspirations! of! all! in! the! partnership,! and! to! ensure! they! are! specific,!measurable,!assignable,!realistic!and!timeVbound.! 4.3. Current status and next steps At! the! time! of! publication! of! this! document! work! is! focused! on! building! the! partnership! necessary! to! deliver!the!Five!Capitals!framework!for!marine!governance!outlined!here.!!This!involves!engaging!with! the!countries!to!identify!their!priorities!and!ownership!and!leadership!of!the!initiative!from!government! partners.! At! the! same! time,! institutionalizing! the! NGO/civil! society! contribution! is! underway,! with! growing! interest! in! participation! from! a! broad! range! of! NGOs,! programmes,! organizations! and! individuals!from!within!the!NMC!countries!and!internationally.!! The!8th!Conference!of!Parties!to!the!Nairobi!Convention,!to!be!held!in!late!June!2015!in!the!Seychelles! marks! a! watershed! when! it! is! hoped! the! country! endorsement! for! the! initiative! will! be! registered,! opening! the! doors! to! an! integrated! approach! across! the! countries,! and! to! multiVlateral! finance! for! building! the! next! stages! in! the! initiative.! At! the! same! time,! this! will! empower! the! NGO/civil! society! engagement!in!support!of!the!initiative!and!facilitate!approaches!to!the!critical!commercial!sectors!and! the!actors!within!those.! Financial! support! for! the! initiative! has! to! date! been! raised! from! private! donors,! with! inVkind! support! from! a! range! of! partners.! A! major! goal! for! 2015V16! is! to! prepare! the! documentation! to! obtain! multiV lateral!funding!for!the!initiative,!as!well!as!national!commitments!and!identification!of!programmes!that! deliver!on!the!goals!of!the!NMC!initiative.!!! 4.4. The scope of a Northern Mozambique Channel initiative. Geographically,!what!should!be!included!within!the!boundaries!of!a!regional!initiative!for!the!Northern! Mozambique!Channel!must!be!determined!by!the!key!partners!in!the!initiative!–!the!countries!primarily,! but!also!with!consideration!for!the!principal!stakeholders!and!partners!from!civil!society!and!the!private! sector.! Two! basic! options! (smallest! and! largest)! are! suggested! by! they! biophysical! properties! of! the! region,!as!well!as!certain!administrative!boundaries:!the!smallest!option!is!indicated!by!the!red!dotted! outline,! while! the! largest! option! by! the! red! dotted! outline! (fig.! 11).! Determining! which! of! these,! or! another! solution! intermediate! between! these! can! be! done! by! the! partners! in! early! stages! of! development!of!the!initiative.! 41! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! Figure! 14.! Two! options! for! boundaries! of! a! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! initiative.! Left:! the! smallest! delimitation! of! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel,! based! entirely! on! ocean! currents! and! dynamics;! Right:! possibilities!for!more!inclusive!boundaries!of!the!Northern!Mozambique!Channel,!including!considerations!based! on! broader! biophysical! properties,! biogeography! of! species,! and! administrative! considerations,! and! inclusion! or! not!of!the!Aldabra!group!of!islands.! ! 42! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! ! 5. References/Endnotes !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 1 !http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/fiveVcapitals/ove! 2! Chambers,! R.! and! Conway,! G.! 1992.! Sustainable! rural! livelihoods:! practical! concepts! for! the! 21st! century.! IDS! Discussion!Paper!296.!Institute!of!Development!Studies,!University!of!Sussex,!Brighton! 3 ! See! summary! in! Obura,! D.O.,! Church,! J.E.! and! Gabrié,! C.! (2012).! Assessing! Marine! World! Heritage! from! an! Ecosystem!Perspective:!The!Western!Indian!Ocean.!World!Heritage!Centre,!United!Nations!Education,!Science! and!Cultural!Organization!(UNESCO).!124!pp.! 4 ! Harris,! P.T.,! et! al.,! Geomorphology! of! the! oceans,! Marine! Geology! (2014),! http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/! j.margeo.2014.01.011! 5 ! Rabinowitz! PD,! Woods! S! (2006)! The! Africa–Madagascar! connection! and! mammalian! migrations.! Journal! of! African! Earth! Sciences! 44:! 270–276.! doi:10.1016/j.jafrearsci.2005.12.005;! McCall! RA! (1997)! Implications! of! recent!geological!investigations!of!the!Mozambique!Channel!for!the!mammalian!colonization!of!Madagascar.! Proc!Biol!Sci!264:!663–665.!doi:10.1098/rspb.1997.0094.! 6!a!digital!totalVsedimentVthickness!database!for!the!world's!oceans!and!marginal!seas!has!been!compiled!by!NOAA! National!Geophysical!Data!Center!(NGDC).!http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/mgg/sedthick/sedthick.html! 7 !Hancke!L.,!Roberts!M.J.,!&!Ternon!J.F.!(2014)!DeepVSea!Research!II.!DeepVSea!Research!Part!II,!100,!27–37.! 8 !Ridderinkhof,!H.,!van!der!Werf,!P.!M.,!Ullgren,!J.!E.,!van!Aken,!H.!M.,!van!Leeuwen,!P.!J.!and!de!Ruijter,!W.!P.!M.! 2010.! Seasonal! and! interannual! variability! in! the! Mozambique! Channel! from! moored! current! observations,! Journal!of!geophysical!research,!Vol.!115,!No!C6.! 9 ! Hancke! L,! Roberts! MJ,! Ternon! JF! (2014)! DeepVSea! Research! II.! DeepVSea! Research! Part! II! 100:! 27–37.! doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.10.014.! 10 !Halo!I,!Backeberg!B,!Penven!P,!Ansorge!I,!Reason!C,!et!al.!(2014)!DeepVSea!Research!II.!DeepVSea!Research!Part!II! 100:!38–53.!doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2013.10.015.! 11 !http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/applications/ocean/index.html! 12 !Ternon!J.F.,!Bach!P.,!Barlow!R.,!Huggett!J.,!Jaquemet!S.,!Marsac!F.,!Ménard!F.,!Penven!P.,!Potier!M.,!&!Roberts! M.J.!(2014)!The!Mozambique!Channel:!From!physics!to!upper!trophic!levels.!Deep!Sea!Research!Part!II:!Topical! Studies!in!Oceanography,!100,!1–9.! 13 !Sherman!K,!Duda!A!(1999)!Large!marine!ecosystems:!an!emerging!paradigm!for!fishery!sustainability.!Fisheries! 24:! 15–26.! Belkin! IM,! Cornillon! PC,! Sherman! K! (2009)! Fronts! in! Large! Marine! Ecosystems.! Progress! in! Oceanography!81!(1–4):!223–236!doi:10!1016/j!pocean!2009!04!015.!!! 14 !Ternon!et!al.!ibid.! 15 ! Lee! P.VF.,! Chen! I.VC.,! &! Tseng! W.VN.! (1999)! Distribution! patterns! of! three! dominant! tuna! species! in! the! Indian! Ocean.!Proc.!of!the!Environmental!Systems!Research!Institute!International!User's!Conference,!San!Diego,!EE! UU.! 16 !Spalding!et!al.!2001.!World!Atlas!of!Coral!Reefs.!Prepared!at!the!UNEP!World!Conservation!Monitoring!Centre,! University!of!California!Press,!Berkeley,!USA.! 17 ! Andréfouët! et! al.! 2009.! Atlas! des! récifs! coralliens! de! l’Océan! Indien! Ouest,! Centre! IRD! de! Nouméa,! NouvelleV Calédonie,!157pp.!Muthiga!et!al.!2008.!Status!of!Coral!Reefs!in!East!Africa:!Kenya,!Tanzania,!Mozambique!and! South!Africa.!Prepared!for!the!Status!of!Coral!Reefs!of!the!World:!2008.! 18 !Spalding!et!al.!2001.!ibid.! 19 !Spalding!et!al.!2010.!World!Atlas!of!Mangroves.!Earthscan!Publications,!London.!319pp.! 20 !Taylor!et!al.!2003.!Mangroves!of!East!Africa.!UNEP!World!Conservation!Monitoring!Centre.! 21 !Obura!D!(2012)!The!Diversity!and!Biogeography!of!Western!Indian!Ocean!ReefVBuilding!Corals.!PLoS!ONE!7(9):! e45013.!doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0045013! 22 !Reaka!M.L.,!Rodgers!P.J.,!&!Kudla!A.U.!(2008)!Patterns!of!biodiversity!and!endemism!on!IndoVWest!Pacific!coral! reefs.!PNAS,!105,!11474–11481.! 23 ! Tittensor! D.P.,! Mora! C.,! Jetz! W.,! Lotze! H.K.,! Ricard! D.,! Berghe! E.V.,! &! Worm! B.! (2010)! Global! patterns! and! predictors!of!marine!biodiversity!across!taxa.!Nature,!466,!1098–1101.! 24 ! Obura,! DO! (2015)! An! Indian! Ocean! centre! of! origin! revisited! –! Paleogene! and! Neogene! influences! defining! a! biogeographic!realm.!J.!Biogoeography.!Synthesis!Article,!!Special!(Virtual)!Issue:!Red!Sea!and!Western!Indian! Ocean! Biogeography.! In! review.! ! ! Obura! D.O.! (2012b)! Evolutionary! mechanisms! and! diversity! in! a! western! 43! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Indian! Ocean! centre! of! diversity.! Proceedings! of! the! 12th! International! Coral! Reef! Symposium! 3A! Evolution,! biogeography!and!taxonomy:!general!session.!6!pp! 25 ! REMMOA& 2012)& Campagnes& REMMOA& :& Recensement& des& Mammifères& marins& et& autre& Mégafaune& pélagique& par$Observation$Aérienne.$Agence$des$aires$marines$protégées.$France! 26!Pierce!S.J.,!Méndez!Jiménez!A.,!Collins!K.,!&!Rosero!Caicedo!M.!(2010)!Developing!a!Code!of!Conduct!for!whale! shark!interactions!in!Mozambique.!Aquatic!Conservation:!Marine!and!Freshwater!Ecosystems,!20,!782–788.! 27! Fricke,! H.,! Hissmann,! K.,! Froese,! R.,! Schauer,! J.,! Plante,! R.! and! Fricke,! S.! 2011.! The! population! biology! of! the! living!coelacanth!studied!over!21!years.!Mar!Biol.!158(7):1511V1522! 28 ! Obura,' D.O.,' Church,' J.E.' and' Gabrié,' C.' (2012).' Assessing' Marine' World' Heritage' from' an' Ecosystem' Perspective:!The!Western!Indian!Ocean.!World!Heritage!Centre,!United!Nations!Education,!Science!and!Cultural! Organization!(UNESCO).!124!pp.! 29 !Population!Division!of!the!Department!of!Economic!and!Social!Affairs!of!the!United!Nations!Secretariat,!World! Population!Prospects:!The!2012!Revision,!http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm! 30 !Warren!Thompson.!Encyclopedia!of!Population!2.!Macmillan!Reference.!2003.!pp.!939–40.!ISBN!0V02V865677V6;! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition! 31 !UNEP/Nairobi!Convention!Secretariat,!2009.!Strategic!Action!Programme!for!the!Protection!of!the!Coastal!and! Marine!Environment!of!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!from!LandVbased!Sources!and!Activities,!Nairobi,!Kenya,!140! pp.! 32 ! Blake! Feist,! using! Landscan! gridded! population! data! (http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/landscan_! data_avail.shtml),!and!see!Sale!P.F.,!Agardy!T.,!Ainsworth!C.H.,!Feist!B.E.,!Bell!J.D.,!Christie!P.,!HoeghVGuldberg! O.,!Mumby!P.J.,!Feary!D.A.,!Saunders!M.I.,!Daw!T.M.,!Foale!S.J.,!Levin!P.S.,!Lindeman!K.C.,!Lorenzen!K.,!Pomeroy! R.S.,! Allison! E.H.,! Bradbury! R.H.,! Corrin! J.,! Edwards! A.J.,! Obura! D.O.,! de! Mitcheson! Y.J.S.,! Samoilys! M.A.,! &! Sheppard!C.R.C.!(2014)!Marine!Pollution!Bulletin.!Marine!Pollution!Bulletin,!1–16.! 33 !World!Bank,!2013;!http://www.worldbank.org/! 34 !Population!Division!of!the!Department!of!Economic!and!Social!Affairs!of!the!United!Nations!Secretariat,!World! Population!Prospects:!The!2012!Revision,!http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htm! 35 !see!http://www.ilri.org/taxonomy/term/358! 36 !Statistics!taken!from!the!country!reports!at!http://dhsprogram.com/publications/index.cfm;!USAID! 37 ! Africa! Progress! Panel.! http://www.africaprogresspanel.org/publications/policyVpapers/2014VafricaVprogressV report/?gclid=CO2s6qjAy8UCFTHHtAod5xwAyA! 38 !UNEP/Nairobi!Convention!Secretariat,!2009,!ibid.! 39 !Stratégie!régionale!des!pêches!et!de!l’aquaculture!de!la!Commission!de!l'Océan!Indien!2009!–!2014.! 40 !FAO!Fishery!Country!Profiles,!2005! 41 !Le!Manach!F.,!Gough!C.,!Harris!A.,!Humber!F.,!Harper!S.,!&!Zeller!D.!(2012)!Unreported!fishing,!hungry!people! and!political!turmoil!the!recipe!for!a!food!security!crisis!in!Madagascar?!Marine!Policy,!36,!218–225.! 42 !Department!of!Agriculture,!Australian!Government.!http://www.daff.gov.au/fisheries/international/iotc.!! 43 ! UNEP/Nairobi! Convention! Secretariat! and! WIOMSA! (2009).! Regional! synthesis! report! on! the! Status! of! Ratification!and!Implementation!of!International!Environmental!Conventions!relevant!to!LandVbased!Activities! and!Sources!of!Pollution!of!the!Coastal!and!Marine!Environment!of!the!WIO!region,!UNEP,!Nairobi!Kenya,!48p.! 44 ! In! June! 2014! Madagascar! renewed! its! fishery! agreement! with! the! EU,! amidst! controversy! that! it! was! not! sufficiently!beneficial!to!Madagascar.! 45 ! Nunes,! PALD! and! Ghermandi! A.! (2015)! Understanding! and! Valuing! the! Marine! Ecosystem! Services! of! the! Northern!Mozambique!Channel.!WWF!International.!78!pp! 46 ! República! de! Moçambique! (2012)! Fundamentação! da! proposta! de! Decreto! que! cria! a! Área! de! Protecção! Ambiental! das! Ilhas! Primeiras! e! Segundas.! Ministério! Para! A! Coordenação! Da! Acção! Ambiental.! A! Lei! do! Ambiente,!Lei!n.!o!20/97,!de!1!de!Outubro! 47 !Cripps,!G.!2010.!Feasibility!study!on!the!protection!and!management!of!the!Barren!Isles!ecosystem,!Madagascar.! Blue! Ventures! Conservation! Report! (2009),! for! WWF! and! the# "Réseau# interdisciplinaire# pour# une# gestion# durable(de(la(biodiversité(marine:(diagnostic(environnemental(et(social(autour(des(tortues(marines(dans(le(sudV ouest&de&l’Océan&Indien&".&272&pp! 48 ! TRANSMAP! (2005)! Transboundary! networks! of! marine! protected! areas! for! integrated! conservation! and! sustainable! development:! biophysical,! socioVeconomic! and! governance! assessment! in! East! Africa.! Sixth! Framework!Programme!(EC),!INCOVCT2004V510862.!http://www.transmap.fc.ul.pt/! ! 44! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 49 ! RAMPVCOI/WIOMER! (unpublished)! Réseau! des! Aires! Marines! Protégées! des! pays! de! la! COI! V! Priorisation! et! Stratégie!de!WIOMER.!Rapport,!24!V!27!Novembre!2009! Hôtel!Colbert,!Antananarivo,!Madagascar! 50!Nunes,!PALD!and!Ghermandi!A.!(2015)!ibid.! 51! Hobbs! J! (2012)! Oil! &! Gas! Developments! In! The! Western! Indian! Ocean/Coastal! East! Africa! Region.! Discussion! Paper!on!the!Environmental!and!Social!challenges!of!recent!oil!and!gas!discoveries.!WWF!International! 52 ! Emerging! East! Africa! Energy! Profile:! Pace! Of! Exploration! Activity! Increasing! –! Analysis.! ! 2013.! http://www.eurasiareview.com/23052013VemergingVeastV...! 53 !Tibaldeschi!P!&!Schmitt!S!(2012).!!The!Africa!Land!Use!Planning!and!Early!Warning!System!(ALES).!WWF!UK!and! Norway.!Factsheet.! 54 !Anadarko/ENI!(2013)!Draft!Environmental!Impact!Assessment!(EIA)!Report!for!the!Liquefied!Natural!Gas!Project! in! Cabo! Delgado.! Project! ref:! 0133576.! August! 2013.! http://www.erm.com/PageFiles/13352/DraftVEIAV Aug2013/! 55 ! Nairobi! Convention! (2012).! Adopted! Decisions! for! COP7.! The! Seventh! Conference! of! the! Parties! to! the! Convention!for!the!Protection,!Management!and!Development!of!the!Marine!and!Coastal!Environment!of!the! Western! Indian! Ocean! (Nairobi! Convention).! Maputo,! Mozambique! 10! to! 14! December,! 2012.! UNEP(DEPI)/EAF/CP!.7/5/en!! 56 !East!African!Oil!&!Gas!Summit,!October!2013.!http://www.eaogs.com/! 57 !The!Western!Indian!Ocean!Marine!Highway!Development!and!Coastal!and!Marine!Pollution!Prevention!Project.! http://www.iho.int/mtg_docs/rhc/SAIHC/SAIHC9/SAIHC9V7.1_IMO_Support_Doc_2012.pdf! 58 !Millennium!Ecosystem!Assessment.!The!MA!website!contains!downloadable!versions!of!the!Assessment!reports,! and!links!to!other!relevant!news!and!resources:!http://www.millenniumassessment.org/en/index.html! 59 !http://www.naturalcapitalproject.org/! 60 ! HoeghVGuldberg,! O.! et! al.! 2015.! Reviving! the! Ocean! Economy:! the! case! for! action! V! 2015.! WWF! International,! Gland,!Switzerland.,!Geneva,!60!pp.! 61 !Nunes,!PALD!and!Ghermandi!A.!(2015)!ibid! 62 !ASCLME/SWIOFP!(2012).!Transboundary!Diagnostic!Analysis!for!the!western!Indian!Ocean.!Volumes!1!&!2.!ISBN:! 978V0V620V57042V8.!!!UNEP/Nairobi!Convention!Secretariat.!2009b.!Transboundary!diagnostic!analysis!of!landV based!sources!and!activities!affecting!the!West!Indian!Ocean!marine!and!coastal!environment,!UNEP,!Nairobi,! Kenya.!378p! 63 !ASCLME/SWIOFP!(2012).!Ibid.! 64 !e.g.!ASCLME/SWIOFP!(2012).!Ibid.!and!resources!at!http://asclme.org/! 65 ! those! indicated! with! an! asterisk! (*)! have! been! active! in! establishment! of! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! initiative.! 66 !The!topic!of!this!consultancy!is:!“Exploration!of!options!for!setting!up!a!strong!and!representative!Network!of! Civil! Society! Organizations! in! the! Northern! Mozambique! Channel! area”.! Reporting! from! it! will! further! inform! the!development!of!the!NMCi.! 67 !http://www.thelongrun.com/! 68 !Rocliffe!S.,!Peabody!S.,!Samoilys!M.,!&!Hawkins!J.P.!(2014)!Towards!A!Network!of!Locally!Managed!Marine!Areas! (LMMAs)! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean.! PLoS! ONE,! 9,! e103000.! ! LMMAs! go! by! multiple! names! in! different! countries,!such!as!CCAs!(Kenya),!CCPs!(Mozambique),!etc.! 69 !Rocliffe!S.!et!al.!(2014)!ibid.! 70 !Rocliffe!S.!et!al.!(2014)!ibid.! 71 ! RAMPVCOI/WIOMER! (unpublished)! Réseau! des! Aires! Marines! Protégées! des! pays! de! la! COI! V! Priorisation! et! Stratégie!de!WIOMER.!Rapport,!24!V!27!Novembre!2009! Hôtel!Colbert,!Antananarivo,!Madagascar! 72 ! Obura,! D.O.,! Church,! J.E.! and! Gabrié,! C.! (2012).! Assessing! Marine! World! Heritage! from! an! Ecosystem! Perspective:!The!Western!Indian!Ocean.!World!Heritage!Centre,!(UNESCO).!124!p! 73 !Southern!Indian!Ocean!Regional!Workshop!To!Facilitate!The!Description!Of!Ecologically!Or!Biologically!Significant! Marine!Areas!(2012)!UNEP/CBD/RW/EBSA/SIO/1/1!19!June!2012.! 74 !DPSIR!=!Drivers!Pressures!State!Impacts!Responses.! 45! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 75 ! And! see! Mangubhai! S,! Erdmann! MV,! Wilson! JR,! Huffard! CL,! Ballamu! F,! et! al.! (2012)! Papuan! Bird's! Head! Seascape:! Emerging! threats! and! challenges! in! the! global! center! of! marine! biodiversity.! Marine! Pollution! Bulletin:!1–17.!doi:10.1016/j.marpolbul.2012.07.024!for!an!example!of!an!exploration!of!emerging!threats.! 76 !AfDB!!(2007)!Chapter!Four:!Africa’s!Natural!Resources:!The!Paradox!of!Plenty!(Chapter!4)!African!Development! Report:! Natural! Resources! For! Sustainable! Development! In! Africa.! African! Development! Bank.! Oxford! University!Press.!ISBN!978–0V19V923886V6.!96V141.!Africa!Progress!Report.!(2014).!Grain!Fish!Money.!Financing! Africa’s! Green! and! Blue! Revolutoins.! Africa! Progress! Panel.! ISBN! 978V2V9700821V4V9.! Kabamba,! C.! (2009).! Myths! and! Mining.! The! reality! of! resource! governance! in! Africa.! Open! Debate! 8.! Southern! Africa! Resource! Watch!(SARW)!and!the!Open!Society!Initiative!for!Southern!Africa!(OSISA).! 77 !See!footnote!62.! 78 ! Lind! F! and! Källström! N! (2014)! The! economic! case! for! revitalizing! the! Baltic! Sea.! BCG! perspectives,! the! Boston! Consulting!Group.!www.bcgperspectives.com/! 79 !McKenzie,!E.,!A.!Rosenthal!et!al.!2012.!Developing!scenarios!to!assess!ecosystem!service!tradeoffs:!Guidance!and! case!studies!for!InVEST!users.!World!Wildlife!Fund,!Washington,!D.C.! 80 !The!Economist!(Sep!13th!2014)!Economic!convergence!V!the!headwinds!return.!! 81 !investigated!by!both!the!WIOLaB!and!ASCLME!projects!for!nearshore!and!more!offshore!habitats,!respectively! 82 !Convention!on!Biological!Diversity,!Aichi!Target!11.! 83 ! E.g.! Walley! CJ! (2004)! Rough! Waters:! Nature! and! Development! in! an! East! African! Marine! Park.! Princeton! University!Press,!Princeton!New!Jersey.!ISBN:!9780691115603.!336!pp.! 84 !Rocliffe!et!al.!(2014)!ibid.! 85 ! TRANSMAP! (2005)! Transboundary! networks! of! marine! protected! areas! for! integrated! conservation! and! sustainable! development:! biophysical,! socioVeconomic! and! governance! assessment! in! East! Africa.! Sixth! Framework!Programme!(EC),!INCOVCT2004V510862.!http://www.transmap.fc.ul.pt/;!WIOMER,!SADC! 86 !eg.!Le!Manach!F,!Gough!C,!Harris!A,!Humber!F,!Harper!S!and!Zeller!D!(2012)!Unreported!fishing,!hungry!people! and! political!turmoil:!the!recipe!for!a!food!security!crisis!in!Madagascar?!Marine!Policy!36:!218–225.!!Jacquet!J,!Helen! Fox!H,!Motta!H,!Ngusaru!A,!!Zeller!D!(2010)!Few!data!but!many!fish:!marine!smallVscale!fisheries!catches!for! Mozambique! and! Tanzania.! African! Journal! of! Marine! Science! 11/2010;! 32(2):197V206.! DOI:! 10.2989/1814232X.2010.501559.! Blythe! J.L.,! Murray! G.,! &! Flaherty! M.S.! (2013)! Historical! Perspectives! and! Recent!Trends!in!the!Coastal!Mozambican!Fishery.!Ecology!and!Society,!18,!art65.! 87 ! MSC! (Marine! Stewardship! Council)! and! ASC! (Aquaculture! Stewardship! Council)! are! internationally! recognized! certification!schemes!for!sustainable!fisheries!management.! 88 !Barnosky!A.D.,!Hadly!E.A.,!Bascompte!J.,!Berlow!E.L.,!Brown!J.H.,!Fortelius!M.,!Getz!W.M.,!Harte!J.,!Hastings!A.,! Marquet! P.A.,! Martinez! N.D.,! Mooers! A.,! Roopnarine! P.,! Vermeij! G.,! Williams! J.W.,! Gillespie! R.,! Kitzes! J.,! Marshall! C.,! Matzke! N.,! Mindell! D.P.,! Revilla! E.,! &! Smith! A.B.! (2012)! Approaching! a! state! shift! in! Earth’s! biosphere.! Nature,! 486,! 52–58.! ! ! ! Steffen! W.,! Broadgate! W.,! Deutsch! L.,! Gaffney! O.,! &! Ludwig! C.! (2015)! The! trajectory!of!the!Anthropocene:!The!Great!Acceleration.!The!Anthropocene!Review.! 89!Gerland!P,!Raftery!AE,!ev!ikova!H,!Li!N,!Gu!D,!et!al.!(2014)!World!population!stabilization!unlikely!this!century.! science!346:!234–237.!doi:10.1126/science.1257469.!!http://esa.un.org/wpp/unpp/panel_population.htm! 90 !Warren!Thompson.!Encyclopedia!of!Population!2.!Macmillan!Reference.!2003.!pp.!939–40.!ISBN!0V02V865677V6;! http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_transition.! 91 !Analysis!by!Blake!Feist,!on!Landscan!data.!http://web.ornl.gov/sci/landscan/! 92 ! WIOMSA! (2011).! Migrant! fishers! and! fishing! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean:! SocioVeconomic! dynamics! and! implications!for!management.!Final!Report!of!Commissioned!Research!Project!MASMA/CR/2008/02.! 93 !Ternon!J.F.,!Bach!P.,!Barlow!R.,!Huggett!J.,!Jaquemet!S.,!Marsac!F.,!Ménard!F.,!Penven!P.,!Potier!M.,!&!Roberts! M.J.!(2014)!The!Mozambique!Channel:!From!physics!to!upper!trophic!levels.!Deep!Sea!Research!Part!II:!Topical! Studies!in!Oceanography,!100,!1–9.! 94 ! Lee! P.VF.,! Chen! I.VC.,! &! Tseng! W.VN.! (1999)! Distribution! patterns! of! three! dominant! tuna! species! in! the! Indian! Ocean.! 19th! Annual! Esri! International! User! Conference! in! San! Diego,! California.! http://proceedings.esri.com/library/userconf/proc99/proceed/papers/pap564/p564.htm.! 95 !Western!Indian!Ocean!Marine!Highway!Development!and!Coastal!and!Marine!Contamination!Prevention!Project! 96 ! Bergeron! L! (2014)! The! forgotten! chokepoint:! the! Mozambique! Channel’s! rich! past! and! bright! but! insecure! future.!Strategic!Insights!No.!54!November!2014.!www.riskintelligence.eu! ! 46! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 97 !SecondVgeneration!projects!on!all!three!GEF!programmes!are!under!inception!in!2014V2015,!with!WIOLAB!being! superseded! by! WIOSAP,! ASCLME! by! SAPPHIRE! and! SWIOFP! by! SWIOFish.! See! asclme.org! for! further! information.! 98 ! Global! International! Waters! Assessments:! regions! 45a! (Agulhas),! 45b! (Indian! Ocean! Islands)! and! 46! (Somali! Current).!UNEP/Kalmar!University.! 99 ! Vanilla! islands! references! in! the! following! websites:! http://www.vanillaVislands.org/?lang=en;! http://media.unwto.org/pressVrelease/2013V09V11/unwtoVshowsVfullVsupportVvanillaVislands;! https://www.facebook.com/Iles.Vanille.Vanilla.Islands?fref=ts.! 100 !See!http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015VinnovativeVcountries/! 101 !The!Economist!(2000)!A!survey!of!government!and!the!Internet.!Haves!and!haveVnots.!How!to!overcome!the! digital!divide.!Jun!22nd!2000.!http://www.economist.com/node/80812! 102 !LMESAP!(2012)!A!Strategic!Action!Programme!For!Sustainable!Management!of!the!Western!Indian!Ocean!Large! Marine!Ecosystems.!Building!a!partnership!to!promote!the!sustainable!management!and!shared!governance!of! WIO!ecosystems!for!present!and!future!generations.!ASCLME!programme.!www.asclme.org! 103 ! Ehler! C.! &! douvere! F.! (2007)! Marine! Spatial! Planning! V! a! step! by! step! approach! toward! EcosystemVbased! Management.!1–99.! 104 !van!Tatenhove!J.!(2011)!Integrated!Marine!Governance.!MAST,!10,!87–113.! 105 ! ESaTDOR! (2013)! European! Seas! and! Territorial! Development,! Opportunities! and! Risks.! ANNEX! 10! to! the! Scientific!Report.!Governance!Case!Studies:!Baltic!Sea!V!Applied!Research!2013/1/5! 106 !Mahon,!R.!(2015).!Implications!of!the!regionalVglobal!ocean!governance!nexus!for!sustainability:!the!example!of! the!Wider!Caribbean.!Centre!for!Resource!Management!and!Environmental!Studies!(CERMES),!University!of!the! West! Indies,! Barbados.! United! Nations! OpenVended! Informal! Consultative! Process! on! Oceans! and! the! Law! of! the!Sea!V!UNICPOLOS,!United!Nations!Headquarters,!New!York,!6!V!10!April!2015!! 107 ! Celtic! Seas! Partnership! (2012)! Overarching! project! strategy,! January! 2013! –! December! 2016;! and! PISCES! (undated).!Towards!sustainability!in!the!Celtic!Sea:!Supporting!Sustainable!Seas.!A!guide!to!implementing!the! ecosystem!approach!through!the!Marine!Strategy!Framework!Directive.! 108 !van!Tatenhove!J.!(2011)!Integrated!Marine!Governance.!MAST,!10,!87–113.! 109! Ateweberhan! M.! &! McClanahan! T.R.! (2010)! Relationship! between! historical! seaVsurface! temperature! variability!and!climate!changeVinduced!coral!mortality!in!the!western!Indian!Ocean.!Marine!Pollution!Bulletin,! 60,! 964–970.! McClanahan! T.R.,! Ateweberhan! M.,! Darling! E.S.,! Graham! N.A.J.,! &MuthigaN.A.! (2014)! Biogeography!and!Change!among!Regional!Coral!Communities!across!the!Western!Indian!Ocean.!PLoS!ONE,!9,! e93385.! 110! Saji! N.H.,! Goswami! B.N.,! Vinayachandran! P.N.,! &! Yamagata! T.! (1999)! A! dipole! mode! in! the! tropical! Indian! Ocean.!Nature,!401,!360–363.! 111 !Eriksson!H.,!WICKEL!J.,!&!Jamon!A.!(2012)!Coral!bleaching!and!associated!mortality!in!Mayotte,!Western!Indian! Ocean.!Western!Indian!Ocean!Journal!of!Marine!Science.!! 112 ! Crochelet! E.,! Chabanet! P.,! Pothin! K.,! Lagabrielle! E.,! Roberts! J.,! Pennober! G.,! LecomteVFiniger! R.,! &! Petit! M.! (2013)!Ocean!&!Coastal!Management.!Ocean!and!Coastal!Management,!86,!13–21.!!Kool,!J!&!Graham,!N!(2012)! Coral!reef!connectivity!in!the!Indian!Ocean.!12th!International!Coral!Reef!Symposium,!Cairns,!Australia.!Session! 18C!SpatiallyVexplicit!&!multiVdisciplinary!approaches!for!coral!reef!conservation!! 113 ! For! example! UKAID.! The! economics! of! climate! change! in! Tanzania! Factsheet.! Also! Kebede,! Brown! &! Nicholls! (2010).! Sythesis! report:! the! implications! of! climate! change! and! sea! level! rise! in! Tanzania! .! the! coastal! zones.! Global!Climate!Adaptation!Partnership.! 114 th ! UNEP! (2012)! Climate! Change! and! Policy! Implications! for! the! WIO! region.! Policy! paper! at! the! 12 ! COP! of! the! Nairobi! Convention.! UNEP(DEPI)/EAF/CP! .7/9/en;! WIOMSA! (2014?)! Climate! Change! in! the! Western! Indian! Ocean:!A!situation!Assessment!and!Policy!Considerations.! 115 ! Clifford! GJ! (2014)! Somali! piracy! and! antiVshipping! activity! messages:! lessons! for! a! successful! counterpiracy! strategy.! Phd! Thesis.! HenleyVPutnam! University;! Besley! T,! Fetzer! T,! &! Mueller! H! (2012)! The! Welfare! Cost! of! Lawlessness:!Evidence!from!Somali!Piracy.!www.dartmouth.edu/~neudc2012/docs/paper_121.pdf! 116 !Clifford!(2014)!ibid.! 117 ! for! example! see! this! study! for! patrol! vessels! adapted! to! West! Africa.! Richardson! S.,! Chapos! I.,! McCartan! S.,! Dobbins!T.,!Hill!J.,!&!Campbell!L.!(2014)!coastal!patrol!interceptor!for!West!Africa.!Marine!Design,!1–10.! 118 !The!Economist!(2009)!Triple!bottom!line.!It!consists!of!three!Ps:!profit,!people!and!planet! 47! !!The!Northern!Mozambique!Channel!4!a!regional!approach!to!marine!governance! !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Nov! 17th! 2009.! http://www.economist.com/node/14301663.! ! ! Rio+20! (2013)! Our! Planet.! The! magazine! of! the! United! Nations! Environment! Programme! —From! Outcome! to! Implementation.! FEBRUARY! 2013.! http://www.unep.org/pdf/OPVFEBVENV2013.pdf! 119 ! Poverty! and! Reefs! ! http://www.fao.org/ag/againfo/programmes/en/lead/alive_toolkit/pages/! pageB_livelihoods.html;!http://www.forumforthefuture.org/project/fiveVcapitals/overview.!! 120 !Scoones,!I.:!Sustainable!Rural!Livelihoods.!A!Framework!for!Analysis.!IDS!Working!Paper!72! 121 ! Global! Partnership! for! Oceans! (2013)! Indispensable! Ocean.! Aligning! ocean! health! and! human! wellVbeing.! Guidance! from! the! Blue! Ribbon! Panel! to! the! Global! Partnership! for! Oceans.! https://www.globalpartnershipforoceans.org/indispensableVocean.! 122 !Bank!of!America!at!the!World!Economic!Forum!2015:!http://about.bankofamerica.com/enVus/worldVeconomicV forumV2015/atwVaVyearVaheadV2015.html#fbid=nxbrs6KeSyf! and! http://about.bankofamerica.com/enV us/worldVeconomicVforumV2015/fiveVforcesVglobalVchange.html#fbid=nxbrs6KeSyf!! 123 ! Republic! of! Mozambique! (2012)! towards! a! green! economy! roadmap! for! a! Green! Economy! in! Mozambique:! accelerating!sustainable!economic,!social,!and!environmental!development.!Maputo.!June!7,!2012;!!!!Republic! of!Mozambique!(2015)!Programa!Quinquenal!do!Governo!2015V2019.!Maputo,!Fevereiro!de!2015! 124 ! Nairobi! Convention! (2012).! Adopted! Decisions! for! COP7.! The! Seventh! Conference! of! the! Parties! to! the! Convention!for!the!Protection,!Management!and!Development!of!the!Marine!and!Coastal!Environment!of!the! Western! Indian! Ocean! (Nairobi! Convention).! Maputo,! Mozambique! 10! to! 14! December,! 2012.! UNEP(DEPI)/EAF/CP!.7/5/en.!Decision!CP7/14:!Green!Economy! 125 ! UNECA! (2015)! Harnessing! The! Blue! Economy! For! Eastern! Africa's! Development.! Background! Document.! 19th! Meeting! of! the! Intergovernmental! Committee! of! Experts! (ICE).! Harnessing! the! Blue! Economy! for! Eastern! Africa’s!Development.!Antananarivo,!Madagascar,!2V5!March!2015.!ECA/SROV!EA/ICE/2015/05! 126 !Millenium!Ecosystem!Assessment,!see!endnote!58.! 127 ! ASCLME/SWIOFP! (2012).! Transboundary! Diagnostic! Analysis! for! the! western! Indian! Ocean.! Volumes! 1! &! 2.! ISBN:!978V0V620V57042V8.!!!UNEP/Nairobi!Convention!Secretariat.!2009b.!Transboundary!diagnostic!analysis!of! landVbased! sources! and! activities! affecting! the! West! Indian! Ocean! marine! and! coastal! environment,! UNEP,! Nairobi,!Kenya.!378p! 128 !Nunes!and!Ghemandi!(2015)!ibid.! 129 !Global!Partnership!for!Oceans!(2013)!Indispensable!Ocean.!Ibid.! 130 !Elinor!Ostrom,!Joanna!Burger,!Christopher!B.!Field,!Richard!B.!Norgaard,!and!David!Policansky!(1999)!Revisiting! the! Commons:! Local! Lessons,! Global! Challenges.! Science! 9! April! 1999:! 284! (5412),! 278V282.! [DOI:10.1126/science.284.5412.278]http://www.onthecommons.org/magazine/elinorVostromsV8VprinciplesV managingVcommmons! 131 ! Cinner! JE,! McClanahan! TR,! MacNeil! MA,! et! al.! Comanagement! of! coral! reef! socialVecological! systems.! Proceedings! of! the! National! Academy! of! Sciences! of! the! United! States! of! America.! 2012;109(14):5219V5222.! doi:10.1073/pnas.1121215109.! 132 ! Jentoft,! Svein.! 2005.! “Fisheries! CoVManagement! as! Empowerment.”! Marine! Policy! 29! (1):! 1–7.! doi:10.1016/j.marpol.2004.01.003.! 133 !Global!Partnership!for!Oceans!(2013)!Indispensable!Ocean.!Ibid.! ! 48!
