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2014 The Sunni-Shia Divide. Council on Foreign Relations.
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The Sunni-Shia Divide
An ancient religious divide is helping fuel a resurgence of conflicts in the Middle East
and Muslim countries. Struggles between Sunni and Shia forces have fed a Syrian civil war that
threatens to transform the map of the Middle East, spurred violence that is fracturing Iraq, and
widened fissures in a number of tense Gulf countries. Growing sectarian clashes have also
sparked a revival of transnational jihadi networks that poses a threat beyond the region.
Islam’s schism, simmering for fourteen centuries, doesn’t explain all the political,
economic, and geostrategic factors involved in these conflicts, but it has become one prism by
which to understand the underlying tensions. Two countries that compete for the leadership of
Islam, Sunni Saudi Arabia and Shia Iran, have used the sectarian divide to further their
ambitions. How their rivalry is settled will likely shape the political balance between Sunnis and
Shias and the future of the region, especially in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, and Bahrain.
Alongside the proxy battle is the renewed fervor of armed militants, motivated by the
goals of cleansing the faith or preparing the way for the return of the messiah. Today there are
tens of thousands of organized sectarian militants throughout the region capable of triggering a
broader conflict. And despite the efforts of many Sunni and Shia clerics to reduce tensions
through dialogue and counterviolence measures, many experts express concern that Islam’s
divide will lead to escalating violence and a growing threat to international peace and security.
Sunni and Shia Muslims have lived peacefully together for centuries. In many countries it has
become common for members of the two sects to intermarry and pray at the same mosques. They
share faith in the Quran and the Prophet Mohammed’s sayings and perform similar prayers,
although they differ in rituals and interpretation of Islamic law.
Shia identity is rooted in victimhood over the killing of Husayn, the Prophet
Mohammed’s grandson, in the seventh century, and a long history of marginalization by the
Sunni majority. Islam’s dominant sect, which roughly 85 percent of the world’s 1.6 billion
Muslims follow, viewed Shia Islam with suspicion, and extremist Sunnis have portrayed Shias as
heretics and apostates.
Origins of the Schism
Mohammed unveiled a new faith to the people of Mecca in 610. Known as Islam, or
submission to God, the monotheistic religion incorporated some Jewish and Christian traditions
and expanded with a set of laws that governed most aspects of life, including political authority.
By the time of his death in 632, Mohammed had consolidated power in Arabia. His followers
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subsequently built an empire that would stretch from Central Asia to Spain less than a century
after his death. But a debate over succession split the community, with some arguing that
leadership should be awarded to qualified individuals and others insisting that the only legitimate
ruler must come through Mohammed’s bloodline.
A group of prominent early followers of Islam elected Abu Bakr, a companion of
Mohammed, to be the first caliph, or leader of the Islamic community, over the objections of
those who favored Ali ibn Abi Talib, Mohammed’s cousin and son-in-law. The opposing camps
in the succession debate eventually evolved into Islam’s two main sects. Shias, a term that stems
from shi’atu Ali, Arabic for “partisans of Ali,” believe that Ali and his descendants are part of a
divine order. Sunnis, meaning followers of the sunna, or “way” in Arabic, of Mohammed, are
opposed to political succession based on Mohammed’s bloodline.
Ali became caliph in 656 and ruled only five years before he was assassinated. The
caliphate, which was based in the Arabian Peninsula, passed to the Umayyad dynasty in
Damascus and later the Abbasids in Baghdad. Shias rejected the authority of these rulers. In 680,
soldiers of the second Umayyad caliph killed Ali’s son, Husayn, and many of his companions in
Karbala, located in modern-day Iraq. Karbala became a defining moral story for Shias, and Sunni
caliphs worried that the Shia Imams—the descendants of Husayn who were seen as the
legitimate leaders of Muslims (Sunnis use the term “imam” for the men who lead prayers in
mosques)—would use this massacre to capture public imagination and topple monarchs. This
fear resulted in the further persecution and marginalization of Shias.
Even as Sunnis triumphed politically in the Muslim world, Shias continued to look to the
Imams—the blood descendants of Ali and Husayn—as their legitimate political and religious
leaders. Even within the Shia community, however, there arose differences over the proper line
of succession. Mainstream Shias believe there were twelve Imams. Zaydi Shias, found mostly in
Yemen, broke off from the majority Shia community at the fifth Imam, and sustained imamate
rule in parts of Yemen up to the 1960s. Ismaili Shias, centered in South Asia but with important
diaspora communities throughout the world, broke off at the seventh Imam. Ismailis revere the
Aga Khan as the living representative of their Imam. The majority of Shias, particularly those in
Iran and the eastern Arab world, believe that the twelfth Imam entered a state of occultation, or
hiddenness, in 939 and that he will return at the end of time. Since then, “Twelvers,” or
Ithna Ashari Shias, have vested religious authority in their senior clerical leaders, called
ayatollahs (Arabic for “sign of God”).
Many Christian, Jewish, and Zoroastrian converts to Islam chose to become Shia rather
than Sunni in the early centuries of the religion as a protest against the ethnic Arab empires that
treated non-Arabs as second-class citizens. Their religions influenced the evolution of Shia Islam
as distinct from Sunni Islam in rituals and beliefs.
Sunnis dominated the first nine centuries of Islamic rule (excluding the Shia Fatimid
dynasty) until the Safavid dynasty was established in Persia in 1501. The Safavids made Shia
Islam the state religion, and over the following two centuries they fought with the Ottomans, the
seat of the Sunni caliphate. As these empires faded, their battles roughly settled the political
borders of modern Iran and Turkey by the seventeenth century, and their legacies resulted in the
current demographic distribution of Islam’s sects. Shias comprise a majority in Iran, Iraq,
Azerbaijan, and Bahrain, and a plurality in Lebanon, while Sunnis make up the majority of more
than forty countries from Morocco to Indonesia.
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Modern Tensions
Iran’s Islamic Revolution in 1979 gave Shia cleric Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini the
opportunity to implement his vision for an Islamic government ruled by the “guardianship of the
jurist” (velayat-e faqih), a controversial concept among Shia scholars that is opposed by Sunnis,
who have historically differentiated between political leadership and religious scholarship. Shia
ayatollahs have always been the guardians of the faith. Khomeini argued that clerics had to rule
to properly perform their function: implementing Islam as God intended, through the mandate of
the Shia Imams.
Under Khomeini, Iran began an experiment in Islamic rule. Khomeini tried to inspire
further Islamic revival, preaching Muslim unity, but supported groups in Lebanon, Iraq,
Afghanistan, Bahrain, and Pakistan that had specific Shia agendas. Sunni Islamists, such as the
Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas, admired Khomeini’s success, but did not accept his leadership,
underscoring the depth of sectarian suspicions.
Saudi Arabia has a sizable Shia minority of roughly 10 percent, and millions of adherents
of a puritanical brand of Sunni Islam known as Wahhabism (an offshoot of the Sunni Hanbali
school) that is antagonistic to Shia Islam. The transformation of Iran into an overtly Shia power
after the Islamic revolution induced Saudi Arabia to accelerate the propagation of Wahhabism, as
both countries revived a centuries-old sectarian rivalry over the true interpretation of Islam.
Many of the groups responsible for sectarian violence that has occurred in the region and across
the Muslim world since 1979 can be traced to Saudi and Iranian sources.
Saudi Arabia backed Iraq in the 1980–1988 war with Iran and sponsored militants in
Pakistan and Afghanistan who were primarily fighting against the Soviet Union, which had
invaded Afghanistan in 1979, but were also suppressing Shia movements inspired or backed by
Iran.
The transformation of Iran into an agitator for Shia movements in Muslim countries seemed to
confirm centuries of Sunni suspicions that Shia Arabs answer to Persia. Many experts, however,
point out that Shias aren’t monolithic—for many of them, identities and interests are based on
more than their confession. Iraqi Shias, for example, made up the bulk of the Iraqi army that
fought Iran during the Iran–Iraq War, and Shia militant groups Amal and Hezbollah clashed at
times during the Lebanese civil war.
For their part, both mainstream and hard-line Sunnis aren’t singularly focused on
oppressing Shias. They have fought against coreligionists throughout history, most recently in
the successive crackdowns on the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt, Iraq’s 1990 invasion of
Kuwait, and Saudi Arabia’s battles against al-Qaeda and related Sunni militant groups. Sharing a
common Sunni identity didn’t eliminate power struggles among Sunni Muslims under secular or
religious governments.
But confessional identity has resurfaced wherever sectarian violence has taken root, as in
Iraq after the 2003 U.S.-led invasion removed Saddam Hussein, a dictator from the Sunni
minority who ruled over a Shia-majority country. The bombing of a Shia shrine in Samara in
2006 kicked off a cycle of sectarian violence that forced Iraqis to pick sides, stirring tensions that
continue today.
In the Arab world, Shia groups supported by Iran have recently won important political
victories. The Assad regime, which has ruled Syria since 1970, relies on fellow Alawis, a
heterodox Shia sect that makes up about 13 percent of Syria’s population, as a pillar of its
rule. Alawis dominate the upper reaches of the military and security services in Syria and are the
backbone of the forces fighting to support the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria’s civil war.
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Since the 2003 invasion of Iraq unseated Saddam Hussein and instituted competitive
elections, the Shia majority has dominated the parliament and produced its prime
ministers. Hezbollah, the Lebanese Shia militia and political movement, is the strongest political
actor in Lebanon. Iran’s regional influence has swelled as its allies in these countries have
accumulated power.
Sunni governments, especially Saudi Arabia, have increasingly worried about their own
grips on power, a concern that was exacerbated with the protest movement that began in Tunisia
in late 2010. The Arab Awakening, as the uprisings are known, spread to Bahrain and Syria,
countries at the fault lines of Islam’s sectarian divide. In each, political power is held by a
sectarian minority—Alawis in Syria, where Sunnis are the majority, and a Sunni ruling family in
Bahrain, where Shias are the majority. The civil war in Syria, which is a political conflict at its
core, has exposed sectarian tensions and become the staging ground for a vicious proxy war
between the region’s major Sunni and Shia powers. Some analysts view the Syrian conflict as the
last chance for Sunnis to limit and reverse the spread of Iranian power and Shia influence in the
Arab world.
Practicing the Faith
Sunnis and Shias agree on the basic tenets of Islam: declaring faith in a monotheistic God
and Mohammed as his messenger, conducting daily prayers, giving money to the poor, fasting
during the Muslim holy month of Ramadan, and performing the pilgrimage to Mecca.
There are divisions even over the precepts of Islam, but the main difference relates to authority,
which sparked the political split in the seventh century and evolved into divergent interpretations
of sharia, or Islamic law, and distinct sectarian identities.
Shias believe that God always provides a guide, first the Imams and then ayatollahs, or
experienced Shia scholars who have wide interpretative authority and are sought as a source of
emulation. The term “ayatollah” is associated with the clerical rulers in Tehran, but it’s primarily
a title for a distinguished religious leader known as a marja, or source of emulation. Iran’s
supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, was appointed by an elected body of Iranian clerics, while maraji
(plural of marja) are elevated through the religious schools in Qom, Najaf, and Karbala. Shias
can choose from dozens of maraji, most of whom are based in holy cities in Iraq and Iran. Many
Shias emulate a marja for religious affairs and defer to Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in Iran for
political guidance. For Sunnis, authority is based on the Quran and the traditions of Mohammed.
Sunni religious scholars, who are constrained by legal precedents, exert far less authority over
their followers than their Shia counterparts.
Both sects have subdivisions. The divisions among Shias were discussed above. Four
schools comprise Sunni jurisprudence: Hanafi, Shafii, Maliki, and Hanbali, the latter spawning
the Wahhabi and Salafi movements in Saudi Arabia. Sunnism, a broad umbrella term for nonShia Islam, is united on the importance of the Quran and practice of Mohammed but allows for
differences in legal opinion.
Sectarian Militants
Communal violence between Islam’s sects has been rare historically, with most of the
deadly sectarian attacks directed by clerics or political leaders. Extremist groups, many of which
are fostered by states, are the chief actors in sectarian killings today.
The two most prominent terrorist groups, Sunni al-Qaeda and Shia Hezbollah, have not defined
their movements in sectarian terms, and have favored using anti-imperialist, anti-Zionist, and
anti-American frameworks to define their jihad, or struggle. They share few similarities beyond
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the use of violence. Hezbollah has developed a pragmatic political wing that competes in
elections and is part of the Lebanese government, a path not chosen by al-Qaeda, which operates
a diffuse network largely in the shadows. Both groups have deployed suicide bombers, and their
attacks shifted from a focus on the West and Israel to other Muslims, such as al-Qaeda’s killing
of Shia civilians in Iraq and Hezbollah’s participation in the Syrian civil war.
Conflict and chaos have played a role in the reversion to basic sectarian identity. In Iraq,
for instance, remnants of the Ba’athist regime employed Sunni rhetoric to mount a resistance to
the rise of Shia power following the ouster of Saddam. Sunni fundamentalists, many inspired by
al-Qaeda’s call to fight Americans, flocked to Iraq from Muslim countries, attacking coalition
forces and many Shia civilians. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who founded al-Qaeda’s franchise in
Iraq, evoked ancient anti-Shia fatwas, or religious rulings, to spark a civil war in hopes that the
Shia majority would eventually capitulate in the face of Sunni extremist violence. The Shia
community absorbed thousands of deaths before fighting back with their own sectarian militias.
Syria’s civil war, which exceeded the brutality and casualty toll of Iraq’s decade-long conflict in
just three years, has amplified sectarian tensions to unprecedented levels. The war began with
peaceful protests in 2011 calling for an end to the Assad regime, which has ruled since 1970. The
Assad family and other Alawis have stirred resentment by Syria’s majority Sunnis after decades
of brutal repression and a sectarian agenda that elevated minority Alawis in government and the
private sector. The 2011 protests and brutal government crackdown uncovered sectarian tensions
in Syria, which have rippled across the region.
Tens of thousands of Syrian Sunnis joined rebel groups such as Ahrar al-Sham, the
Islamic Front, and al-Qaeda’s Nusra Front, which all employ anti-Shia rhetoric; similar numbers
of Syrian Shias and Alawis enlisted with an Iran-backed militia known as the National Defense
Force to fight for the Assad regime. Foreign Sunni fighters from Arab and Western countries
joined the rebels, while Lebanon’s Hezbollah and some Shia militias from Iraq such as Asaib
Ahl al-Haq and Kata'ib Hezbollah backed the Syrian government. Even Afghan Shia refugees in
Iran have reportedly been recruited by Tehran for the war in Syria, pitting them against Sunni
foreign fighters who may have forced the Afghans into exile decades earlier. Syria’s civil war
has attracted more militants from more countries than were involved in the conflicts in
Afghanistan, Chechnya, and Bosnia combined.
Al-Qaeda in Iraq, decimated by the “Awakening” of Sunni Iraqis who joined the fight
against extremists, the U.S.-led military surge, and the death of Zarqawi, found new purpose in
exploiting the vacuum left by the receding Syrian state. It established its own transnational
movement known as the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS). The group expanded its grip on
Sunni provinces in Iraq and eastern regions in Syria, seizing Iraq’s second-largest city, Mosul, in
June 2014. It defied orders from al-Qaeda’s top commanders to curtail its transnational ambitions
and extremism, which led to ISIS’s expulsion from al-Qaeda in February 2014. ISIS rebranded
as the Islamic State in July 2014 and declared its leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, as caliph.
Extremist groups have come to rely on satellite television and high-speed Internet over the past
two decades to spread hate speech and rally support. Fundamentalist Sunni clerics, many
sponsored by wealthy Sunnis from Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states, have popularized anti-Shia
slurs. Shia religious scholars have also taken to the airwaves, mocking and cursing the first three
caliphs and Aisha, one of Mohammed’s wives.
Sectarian rhetoric dehumanizing the “other” is centuries old. But the volume is
increasing. Dismissing Arab Shias as Safawis, a term that paints them as Iranian agents (from the
Safavid empire) and hence traitors to the Arab cause, is increasingly common in Sunni rhetoric.
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Hard-line Sunni Islamists have used harsher historic terms such as rafidha, rejecters of the faith,
and majus, Zoroastrian or crypto Persian, to describe Shias. Iranian officials, Iraq’s prime
minister, and Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, routinely describe their Sunni
opponents as takfiris (code for al-Qaeda terrorists) and Wahhabis. This cycle of demonization
has been exacerbated throughout the Muslim world.
For Sunni extremists, new technologies and social-media channels have revolutionized
recruitment opportunities. Fundamentalists no longer have to infiltrate mainstream mosques and
attract recruits surreptitiously, but can now disseminate their call to jihad and wait for potential
recruits to contact them. These channels aren’t as useful for recruiting Shia militants, who benefit
from state support in Syria, Iraq, and Iran, and can openly advertise their calls for sectarian jihad.
Flash Points
Sunni-Shia tensions contribute to multiple flash points in Muslim countries that are
viewed as growing threats to international peace and security. The following arouse the most
concern among regional specialists:
Rising Militancy
Notable concern about the role of sectarian violence increased in 2013. Extremists were
“fueled by sectarian motivations” in Syria, Lebanon, and Pakistan, according to the U.S. State
Department. After years of steady losses for al-Qaeda–linked groups, Sunni extremist
recruitment is rising, aided by private funding networks in the Gulf, particularly in Kuwait, with
much of the violence directed at other Muslims rather than Western targets. Shia militants are
also gaining strength, in part to confront the threat of Sunni extremism, miring many Muslim
communities in a vicious cycle of sectarian violence.
U.S. officials such as FBI director James B. Comey have warned that the war in Syria,
which attracted thousands of fighters from Europe and the United States, poses a long-term
threat to Western interests. The eventual outflow of these militants, battle-hardened and with
Western passports, is viewed as a potential “terrorist diaspora” that could eclipse the global
terror networks that emerged after the Afghan war against the Soviet Union in the 1980s.
Saudi-Iranian Rivalry
Saudi Arabia and Iran have deployed considerable resources to proxy battles, especially
in Syria, where the stakes are highest. Riyadh closely monitors potential restlessness in its oilrich eastern provinces, home to its Shia minority, and has deployed forces along with other Gulf
countries to suppress a largely Shia uprising in Bahrain. Saudi Arabia is also providing hundreds
of millions of dollars in financial support to the predominantly Sunni rebels in Syria, while
simultaneously banning cash flows to al-Qaeda and extremist jihadi groups fighting the Assad
regime.
Iran has allocated billions of dollars in aid and loans to prop up Syria’s Alawi-led
government, and has trained and equipped Shia militants from Lebanon, Iraq, Syria, and
Afghanistan to fight with various sectarian militias in Syria. At the same time, the widening
proxy battle may also be stirring concern among leaders in Riyadh and Tehran about the
consequences of escalation. The two sides were reported to be in talks in May 2014 to establish a
dialogue for settling disputes diplomatically.
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Humanitarian Crisis
The ongoing civil war in Syria has displaced millions internally, and almost three million
civilians, mostly Sunni, are now refugees in Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, and Turkey. The influx of
more than a million Syrians into Lebanon, a state with a historically combustible religious mix
that experienced its own fifteen-year civil war in the 1970s and 1980s, has burdened its cashstrapped government and pressured communities hosting refugees. Jordan and Iraq are still
struggling to provide housing and services to an impoverished and traumatized population.
Turkey has the greatest capacity to provide humanitarian aid, yet Ankara must increasingly
balance “the public’s sympathy for and unease toward refugees,” the International Crisis Group
reports.
Fractured States
Syria’s civil war, as well as Iraq’s sectarian conflict, is threatening to redraw the map of
the Middle East bequeathed to the region by British and French colonial authorities. The Assad
regime in Syria has consolidated control over the Mediterranean coast, the capital of Damascus,
and the central city of Homs, which together comprise a rump state that connects with Hezbollah
strongholds, threatening the territorial integrity of Lebanon. Other parts of the country are
contested or controlled by various rebel and Islamist groups, including ISIS, which seeks to
dominate the eastern regions of Syria that link to its territory in Iraq. And Kurdish groups in
northern Syria, which, like their Iraqi cousins, have long campaigned for basic rights denied
under the Ba'athist government, are on the verge of gaining de facto independence.
The United States spent more than one trillion dollars to stabilize Iraq, but the country
remains in a precarious state. Sectarian tensions are mounting in Iraq as the newly ascendant
Shia majority struggles to accommodate the Sunni minority and deal with the Kurdish Regional
Government in the north of the country while confronting extremist Sunni groups. Most
politicians and activists in Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon reject attempts to redraw the map of the
region, but the vanishing borders and emergence of new areas of influence based on sectarian
and ethnic identities are a growing existential challenge.
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