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Utkast 03.05.2004 Norwegian research in the Antarctic: Priorities for the period 2005-2009 Content Preface ........................................................................................................................... 2 Executive summary ...................................................................................................... 2 1 Introduction ............................................................................................................... 2 2 Vision.......................................................................................................................... 3 3 Rationale .................................................................................................................... 3 4 Objectives and scientific priorities .......................................................................... 5 4.1 Climate dynamics ................................................................................................. 5 4.1.1 Climatic models ................................................................................................. 5 4.1.2 Paleoclimate ....................................................................................................... 6 4.1.3 The Antarctic ice sheet....................................................................................... 6 4.1.4 Ocean circulation ............................................................................................... 7 4.2 Marine ecosystems ............................................................................................... 8 4.2.1 The carbon cycle ................................................................................................ 8 4.2.2 Ecosystem studies .............................................................................................. 9 4.3 Humans in the Antarctic .................................................................................... 11 4.4 Other research themes ....................................................................................... 11 4.4.1 Atmosphere ...................................................................................................... 11 4.4.2 Ecotoxicology .................................................................................................. 12 4.4.3 Psychology ....................................................................................................... 12 5 Surveys, thematic monitoring and prospecting.................................................... 13 5.1 Surveying............................................................................................................ 13 5.1.1 Topographical surveying ................................................................................. 13 5.1.2 Geological surveying ....................................................................................... 13 5.2 Monitoring ......................................................................................................... 13 5.2.1 Contaminants ................................................................................................... 13 5.2.2 Climate monitoring .......................................................................................... 14 5.2.3 Monitoring of marine living resources ............................................................ 14 5.3 Bioprospecting ................................................................................................... 15 6 Implementation ....................................................................................................... 15 6.1 National co-operation ........................................................................................ 15 6.2 International co-operation ................................................................................. 15 6.3 Recruitment ........................................................................................................ 16 6.4 Technology demands and development ............................................................. 16 6.5 Environmental monitoring ................................................................................. 17 6.6 Financial implications ....................................................................................... 17 6.7 Dissemination .................................................................................................... 18 1 Preface Skrives senere Executive summary Skrives senere 1 Introduction Norway has a long history of whaling, exploration, scientific activity and surveying in the Antarctic. Such activities motivated Norway’s annexation of Bouvetøya in 1930, Peter I Øy in 1931 and Dronning Maud Land in 1939. Paralleling these territorial claims, Norway has played an important role in antarctic co-operation, through longterm research and active participation in the development of the international legal framework concerning the management of Antarctica. Two of the post-war milestones in Norway’s antarctic research were the Maudheim expedition (1949-1951), which was a joint Norwegian-British-Swedish expedition that spent two winters in Dronning Maud Land, and the establishment of the “Norway Station” in Dronning Maud Land. This station was manned in the period 1956-1960 in support of the International Geophysical Year (IGY). Following a 15-year hiatus, during which Norwegian activity was restricted to participation on expeditions organised by other nations, the first Norwegian Antarctic Research Expedition (NARE) took place in the austral summer 1976/77. Three more NAREs followed in 1978/1979, 1984/1985 and 1989/90. The Troll Station, erected at Jutulsessen in Gjelsvikfjella in Dronning Maud Land in the austral summer 1989/90, was the first Norwegian base established in Antarctica since the “Norway Station”. The first Nordic Antarctic Expedition was organised in 1991/92 by Finland, following an agreement between Norway, Sweden and Finland that committed each nation to organise an expedition every third year. Nordic expeditions were subsequently organised every year, with the exception of the austral summers 1994/95 and 1998/99. Norway was in charge of the Nordic collaboration via expeditions in 1992/93, 1996/97 and 2000/01. Since then, the Nordic collaboration has benefited from intercontinental flights between South Africa and Dronning Maud Land. Moreover, the Nordic collaboration has been organised such that each country has the logistical responsibility for two consecutive seasons. In 1993, the Research Council of Norway established the Norwegian National Committee on Polar Research as a direct result of Parliamentary Report No. 42 “Norsk Polarforskning” (“Norwegian Polar Research”). Under the auspices of the Research Council of Norway, the National Committee on Polar Research develops science plans for Norwegian polar research, both in the Arctic and in Antarctica. The present plan, which covers the 5-year period 2005-2009, will replace the existing strategic plan for Norwegian antarctic research. 2 In this plan antarctic research is defined as research conducted on material and phenomena in the Antarctic or research of immediate relevance for the Antarctic. Antarctic research is not a single discipline, but part of the research effort in the respective scientific disciplines. In the present plan the Antarctic region is defined as areas from the South Pole to the Antarctic Convergence, including the Norwegian claim areas Dronning Maud Land, Bouvetøya and Peter I Øy. This new plan follows several of the research priorities identified in the previous national antarctic research plan. There are, however, two new major logistical developments that will impact Norwegian research in Antarctica : (i) initiation of intercontinental flights between South Africa and Dronning Maud Land, making the logistics for terrestrial and marine research activities independent of each other. This makes both the geographical flexibility for marine research and for terrestrial research in Dronning Maud Land in terms of duration and timing, greater. Furthermore (ii), upgrading of the Troll Station makes possible year-round research and monitoring at the station and in its vicinity 2 Vision Norway will make a significant contribution to antarctic research in the period 2005-2009 with special focus on understanding the fundamental processes in antarctic environments in relation to environmental variability and human impact. 3 Rationale Norway has as a claimant state played an important role in antarctic co-operation, through long-term research and active participation in the development of the international legal framework concerning the management of Antarctica. Norway has signed a series of agreements that have been adopted under the Antarctic Treaty regime. The Environmental Protocol, a supplement to the Antarctic Treaty, is an instrument designed to protect the antarctic environment and dependent and associated ecosystems. Under this Protocol, Antarctica will, in effect, be a nature reserve devoted to peace and science indefinitely. These commitments have been and will still be important framework for scientific activities in Norwegian antarctic research. Norway has, as a claimant state in the Antarctic, a responsibility for scientific based management of the natural resources. Norwegian research activities will be the fundament for the management of the natural resources in Norwegian antarctic territories. Norway is entering a new era in terms of logistics in Antarctica, through the establishment of a blue-ice runway at the research station Troll in Dronning Maud land, and through an upgrade of Troll to winter-activity status from 2005. This new logistic facilities open for a decoupling of the former traditional joint marine and 3 terrestrial activities, which was characterised by rather strong logistic constraints on the scientific programmes of previous expeditions. This brings a number of advantages for terrestrial research, such as less travel time, the potential for longer and more flexible research seasons (possibility of shorter field periods and exchange of personnel in the course of the season) and lower costs. In the long term, the runway might act as a gateway to Antarctica, enhancing the international activity and scientific collaboration in this part of Dronning Maud Land. The base creates the potential for year-round research and monitoring, and the possibility for scientists and students to spend the austral winter in Antarctica for data collection and analyses. The logistic decoupling opens for more flexible solutions for the marine activities by joining the increasing number of larger international expeditions in addition to national and Nordic expeditions, as well as participating on various types of commercial marine platforms (fishing and tourist vessels) in the region. A consequence is less restrictions in choice of geographical research areas and more time available for marine scientists New generations of climate and ecosystem models and new advanced remote sensing techniques has opened for a new approach to antarctic science with less dependence on field activities. Models can be developed to integrate existing and new multidisciplinary knowledge and data from physics to upper trophic levels into a system for assessing the present and future states of the marine ecosystem as a function of the main driving forces on the system. Thus, important studies of the Antarctic natural environment can be carried out remotely and antarctic research has to be considered as an activity independent of regular field expeditions to the area Traditionally, the Norwegian research in the Antarctic has been disciplinary orientated towards biology, geology, oceanography and glaciology. In the future a cross-coupling of these disciplines towards an enhanced and increased understanding of the antarctic environment within a global context will be necessary. In the Arctic, Norway has several world leading research groups within interdisciplinary work. These groups have a potential for making significant contribution to antarctic science. In this way a bipolar approach with strong emphasis on studies between the Arctic and the Antarctic is an advantage for Norwegian antarctic research. Research on biogeochemical cycles, habitats, biotic adaptations to extreme environments, thermohaline circulation, sea-ice variability, palaeoclimatology, ozone/UV radiation and cultural heritage all are examples of beneficial transfer of knowledge between arctic and antarctic research. Consequently, the present plan recognises that Norwegian polar expertise can be more fully utilised by carrying out bipolar comparative studies. Management and conservation of the antarctic environment and exploitation of natural resources are important tasks for the international society. This requires basic knowledge in a broad range of natural as well as social sciences. Legal and political aspects regarding Norwegian commitments to the Antarctic Treaty also require substantial contribution from the scientific community. 4 4 Objectives and scientific priorities The Antarctic provides a broad range of natural scientific challenges, and many fundamental processes are poorly known. Norway as a small nation, has not the possibility to cover all research areas, but has to concentrate in areas where we can make significant contribution to progress in antarctic science and providing reliable information for management of Norwegian claimant areas. On this basis, scientific priorities for the period 2005-2009 will focus on research on climate dynamics –past, present and future, marine ecosystems and the human dimension. In addition, increased focus will be given to surveys and long-term monitoring. 4.1 Climate dynamics The ocean, sea ice, land ice and the atmosphere of Antarctica, most likely play a critical role in the global climate system. The specific role of each element has changed through geological time. Basic information of each element and their interactions in geological time are stored in ice and sediment records. Climate models can be verified through analysing past records. For understanding climatic processes and explaining the role of the Antarctic in the global climate system, it is necessary to use rigorous modelling and cross-coupling between various disciplines. . Within this context, emphasis is given to the following research topics: Climatic models, paleoclimate, Antarctic ice sheets and ocean circulation. 4.1.1 Climatic models Important research areas will be to focus on improving model parameterisation through validation studies, especially aiming at improving Global Circulation Models (GCMs). The interactions between the different components of the climate system are nonlinear. The resulting complexity and sensitivity to different climate forcings present a major challenge to climatologists. Understanding the variability in Antarctic climate requires the synthesis of many observations of the atmosphere, ocean and sea ice. Essentially, the major physical processes and the coupling between the different components should be understood in order to construct global and regional climate models, which are important tools for predicting how the climate will evolve over the next centuries. Global circulation models (GCMs) are considered important tools for assessment of the impact of anthropogenic release of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. In this context, modelling of the Southern Ocean is one of the major tasks. Because of extremely low vertical stability of the water column, different models produce huge differences in rates of vertical mixing and transport of nutrients as well as estimates of exchange with the atmosphere of heat and gases such as CO2. In order to improve the GCMs, more field observations are needed in the Southern Ocean. Norwegian researchers should, in close collaboration with climate modellers, focus on improving model parameterisation through validation studies, especially aiming at improving GCMs. 5 The energy transfer between the atmosphere and the ocean is critically dependent on the extent of the sea-ice cover. Both the radiation balance and the transfer of heat and momentum are quite different in ice-covered regimes compared to the open ocean. Changes in the extent of sea-ice are particularly important because they generate a strong positive climate feedback by affecting the surface albedo. Thus, improving the parameterisation of sea-ice albedo in GCMs should be given priority. Variation in albedo can be studied using remote sensing from satellites. Even so, ground truth measurements are essential for validation. Satellite radar and laser altimeter technology could provide useful tools for estimating sea-ice thickness in the future. In this field of research bi-polar studies are particularly relevant. 4.1.2 Paleoclimate Important research areas will be: the long term variability of the antarctic ice sheet studies of synchrony and leads and lags between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres during periods of climate change The Antarctic ice sheet has fluctuated considerably during the past ~35 million years and has been one of the major driving forces for changes in global sea levels and climate throughout the Cenozoic era. Determination of the scale and rapidity of the response of these large ice masses to climatic forcing is of vital importance, especially how fluctuations in the size and thickness of the ice sheet have affected sedimentation on the continental margin, the formation of antarctic deep bottom water, and the circulation in the oceans. The thick sediment layers accumulated on the continental margin and in sediments around Antarctica hold important climatic records and future Norwegian activity should prioritize sampling (coring and drilling) and analysing this climatic archive with special emphasis for the long term variability of the antarctic ice sheet. Within the European Project for Ice Coring in Antarctica (EPICA), ice that is almost one million years old has been retrieved from Dome Concordia. In Dronning Maud Land (DML), where the ice is less thick and the accumulation rates higher, the goal is to retrieve ice that reaches back through the last (Eemian) interglacial period. A crucial issue is to determine inter-hemispheric coupling, for example whether Southern Ocean climate regimes have experienced the same type of rapid, frequent changes as the Northern Hemisphere. Essential is also studies of synchrony and leads and lags between the Northern and Southern Hemispheres during periods of climate change. An ice core from the EPICA DML provides an essential source of information for this type of studies. Additional important information about the interhemispheric climatic coupling is also to be found in the marine sedimentary archive. Future Norwegian research should primarily explore the combined information from ice and marine sediment cores. Focus should be given to glacial/interglacial fluctuations. Special focus should also be given to the later part of the Holocene (< 2000 years). 4.1.3 The Antarctic ice sheet Important research areas will be 6 to understand how the ice sheet, ice streams and ice shelves respond to climate variability Historically, research has focused largely on analysis of ice cores to explore past climate changes. In the future, studies of change in mass balance and ice dynamics have to be emphasised in order to predict the future evolution of the antarctic ice sheet. Jutulstraumen is one of the largest antarctic ice streams. Interdisciplinary research (glaciology, oceanography) should be conducted with a focus on melt/freeze processes underneath the Fimbulisen ice shelf. Understanding how the interactions between the ice shelf and the ocean modify water masses in the Antarctic Coastal Current is essential for understanding global change. It is generally accepted that the antarctic ice sheet consists largely of accumulation zones, thus its mass balance is positive. In some areas near the margin, however, blueice areas exist that are characterised by negative mass balance and possible meltrelated features. Recent changes on the Antarctic Peninsula demonstrate that melting at the surface can be an important trigger for larger changes, such as the disintegration of ice shelves. It is therefore important to study surface and sub-surface melting in Dronning Maud Land using in situ and satellite data as well as model simulation. This work should be continued in order to understand the consequences of increased melting at the surface on the energy balance, both at regional and continental scales. 4.1.4 Ocean circulation Important research areas will be to understand the thermohaline circulation and its role in climate contexts increase the general knowledge of the Southern Ocean circulation and related processes The thermohaline circulation (THC) is a global ocean circulation. It is driven by differences in the density of the sea water produced by temperature (thermal) and salinity (haline) effects. The driving force for the THC is water mass formation. Formation of sea ice over shallow continental shelves in the southern Weddell Sea releases high-salinity brine, and this cold, saline water contributes directly to deepwater formation. An important challenge for antarctic science will be to understand the sub ice-shelf circulation and the fate of the super-cooled and brine enriched watermasses. This is important, because it is uncertain how the antarctic ice shelves will respond to the predicted warmer climates of the future. Thus, processes on the continental shelf as well as below the floating glacier should be studied further, both by means of field measurements and modelling. Monitoring super-cooled water is particularly important. The Antarctic Circumpolar Current is by far the world’s largest current, by a factor of 3-4 in terms of volume transport compared to the North Atlantic Current (Gulf Stream). It effectively isolates the Southern Ocean from the rest of the world ocean. Being circumpolar, it provides the link between the deep basins of the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific oceans. Key transects for long-term monitoring of ocean properties should be considered. However, such transects are very resource-demanding, thus international co-operation should be stimulated. The importance of long-term timeseries is emphasised by climatologists working with global climate models. The 7 Southern Ocean can provide baseline values for radioactive isotopes due to (what are assumed to be) limited amounts of atmospheric fallout and transport by the ocean. Their distribution might reveal water transport routes and hence, studies of radioactive isotopes in the Southern Ocean should be established. The release of brine that accompanies formation of sea ice is important with respect to deep-water production, deep-sea oxygenation, uptake of anthropogenic CO2 by the ocean, and the impact on seawater biogeochemistry, in polar regions. Comparative bipolar studies are particularly important because freezing in the Southern Ocean and the arctic seas often occurs in different climatic regimes. At times, polynyas develop in ice-covered areas; the Weddell Sea Polynya is a wellknown example. It occurred in the 1970s near the Maud Rise, where it produced a major climate signal in Weddell Sea Deep Water. Such polynyas can be identified using remote sensing. Carefully designed experiments including both in situ measurements and modelling are required in order to describe the structure of polynyas and to understand the physics that underlies their formation. 4.2 Marine ecosystems 4.2.1 The carbon cycle Important research areas will be to study of the role of iron and other trace metals for understanding the interaction between DOC and metals to study the deep water production and vertical export of carbon comparative studies of the regulations of algae, zooplankton and microheterotroph production in the Southern Ocean and the high-arctic seas The oceanic carbon cycle is comprised of a physical pump, a biological pump and an alkalinity or anion pump. The physical pump is driven by physical and chemical processes, while the biological pump is driven by primary production, consuming dissolved CO2 through photosynthesis and producing particulate organic carbon (POC) and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). The alkalinity pump is related to the removal of carbon by calcification in the upper layer and the release of carbon when calcium carbonate is dissolved at depth. Changes in dense water production and the thermohaline circulation will impact the ocean carbon reservoir. The global ocean stores roughly fifty times as much carbon as the atmosphere, mostly in the deep waters of the Pacific Ocean because of its volume and long residence time. Slowing or stopping the THC would make the Atlantic Circulation more like that of the Pacific, increasing its carbon storage and thus weakening the greenhouse effect and cooling the atmosphere – a negative feedback. The balance of greenhouse gases, their sources and sinks has a well-known impact on climate yet little is known about the antarctic reservoir. This is made all the more important through positive feedback mechanisms. Carbon can be sequestered by both physical and biological processes, and can be released by ocean mixing events; these 8 rates and reservoir sizes require better estimates for incorporation into coupled global circulation models (GCMs). Like the atlantic sub-arctic and the arctic seas, the Southern Ocean is an important carbon sink. Yet biological pumping in the Southern Ocean is small judged from the ambient concentrations of nitrate, phosphate, and silicate, which are the highest anywhere in the upper levels of the world ocean. This is a consequence of low levels of primary production in the ice-free parts of the Southern Ocean. This seems to be a consequence of strong iron and grazing control or, in periods, light limitation (socalled HNLC or High-Nitrate-Low Chlorophyll water), as first suggested by Norwegian scientists in 1929-1935 and verified through field experiments since 1989. Norwegian carbon cycle research should be co-ordinated with studies of deep-water production and vertical export of carbon and otherwise focus on the upward transport of nutrients and the regulation of primary production and production of microheterotrophs by physics, sea-ice, nutrients and grazing. Studies of the role of iron and other trace metals are essential for understanding the interaction between DOC and metals, which makes the latter more bio-available while at the same time producing free radicals and superoxides that, in combination with natural UV radiation, can be harmful. The regulation of algae, zooplankton and micro-heterotrophs associated with sea ice and ice-filled water in the Southern Ocean and the high-arctic seas should be compared with the regulation of the corresponding communities in HNLC waters. This will increase the understanding of “ordinary” nutrient limitation (nitrate, phosphate; silicate in the case of diatoms) in ice-filled waters as opposed to iron control in HNLC waters. Norway has an advantage by possessing top expertise in modelling and the physical, chemical and biological aspects of oceanography that deal with carbon pumping and the ecology and adaptations of marine life to global change. Considering that in this context, crucial ecological processes are little known, Norwegian researchers, in addition to biological and chemical sampling of the upper ocean layer, should carry out shipboard and laboratory experiments on the regulation of primary and secondary production, and the dynamics of the micro-heterotrophs. The results should be input to ecosystem studies and models of the impact of global change on cold-water organisms. 4.2.2 Ecosystem studies Important research areas will be to understand the physical, chemical and biological processes in the marine ecosystem to understand and quantify human impact on the marine ecosystem, including the living marine resources to quantify the biomass of marine resources and understand population controlling mechanisms Comparative studies of ecosystem behaviour in the Southern Ocean and the high-arctic seas to develop ecosystem modelling for better understanding of key processes 9 Norway has significant expertise in abundance estimation, physiological studies of adaptation and general marine ecology and modelling. This largely arctic-based expertise could be usefully applied to scientific studies of marine fauna in southern polar regions. So far, most of the biological research has focussed on seabirds and marine mammals. Population dynamics, physiological and eco-toxicological research in order to improve our understanding of how natural and anthropogenic changes in the environment effect abundance and both spatial and temporal distribution of organisms should be continued. Norway should focus on and participate in relevant research with methodological expertise, for instance in acoustics and quantification of the interactions between important predator and prey stocks. Research involving state-ofthe-art methods can link and quantify changes in the distribution, life history strategy, demography, and population dynamics of seabirds, penguins and seals to climate variability. A research and monitoring programme should build upon the fact that seabirds and marine mammals are excellent sentinels of environmental change in marine systems. The system concentrates on key ecosystem elements that are broadly geographically distributed and logistically feasible to work with, so that value gained by comparative studies around Antarctic are maximized. Rather little is known about the krill and particularly fish resources in the waters surrounding Bouvetøya and the sea off Dronning Maud Land. CCAMLR has encouraged and asked for investigations of these resources. Norway has for the first time participated in the fishery for toothfish in January-March 2004. There is an increasing interest from Norwegian vessels to participate in this highly profitable fishery. Management of fisheries should be made on a scientific basis.. Norway should therefore more actively take part in research related to quantifying the biomass of marine resources and understand population controlling mechanisms, and to increase basic knowledge about ecosystem interactions and species adaptations. Comparative studies between the marine ecosystem in the Southern Ocean and the arctic ecosystem should be emphasized. Norwegian-South African expeditions have conducted monitoring activities and scientific research on fur seals, penguins and a variety of other seabird species resident on the Bouvetøya during the last 2 decades. This sub-antarctic island is extremely interesting for a variety of reasons - it is distant from other land, is located just south of the convergence and it has recently undergone significant changes in its fauna. The fur seal population has increased dramatically over the past few decades, and it appears that elephant seals may have recently started breeding on the island. A goal for antarctic ecosystem modelling should be to improve our understanding of the ecosystem dynamics and to apply this in an ecological approach towards future demands to management advice based on precautionary principles. Through national and international cooperation, a model based system for describing and quantifying the various levels and interactions of ecosystem related to commercially exploitable stocks of krill and fish stocks should be developed. This includes further development 10 of methodology and technology to measure the state variables in the ecosystem and to estimate the standing and future stock size and distribution. 4.3 Humans in the Antarctic Important research areas will be: Contributing research to the national governance of Dronning Maud Land and to Norway’s international commitments and opportunities Tourism Cultural heritage research The principal legal and the social science issues that concern Norway are related to the evolution of the Antarctic Treaty System. The Protocol for Environmental Protection (1991) is seen as particularly important. The establishment of a permanent secretariat in 2004 for the Antarctic Treaty System may generate additional research needs and priorities. Research related to the definition of extent of the continental shelves associated with the Norwegian territories is needed. There are also research challenges related to multinational management of antarctic resources. Ownership to genetic resources may be an important future issue related to bioprospecting. With increasing tourism, recently also involving Norwegian tour operators, it is important to analyse trends in the regulations that govern antarctic tourism, the rules for liability in the case of environmental damage, and the methods that are used for analysis of environmental impact, and cumulative impacts. Norwegian cultural artefacts in the Antarctic are mainly relics from the era of whaling and geographical exploration. Most of them are situated on the sub-Antarctic islands (South Georgia in particular) and on the Antarctic Peninsula, that is, far from Dronning Maud Land. Thus, cultural history investigations and the establishment of effective regulations for the protection and management of Norway’s cultural heritage should primarily be based on international co-operation and by supporting Norwegian participation in the expeditions of other countries. 4.4 Other research themes Other research themes of relevance for Norwegian Research in the Antarctic are listed below. 4.4.1 Atmosphere Important research areas will be: Ozone layer depletion and the effects of solar ultraviolet radiation in the Antarctic (Bi-polar comparative studies of the upper atmosphere?) It is now widely accepted that a reduction in stratospheric ozone is linked to increases in solar ultraviolet B radiation (UVB). The most striking example of this is the large ozone hole that appears annually over the Southern Polar Region. However, available 11 data indicate that, over the past 10-15 years, UVB levels have increased significantly at mid-latitudes in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Thus, ozone layer depletion, and concomitant increases in UVB, are world-wide phenomena that are inextricably linked to global climatic change. Following from this, intense scientific research on both ozone layer depletion, and on the biological and ecosystem-level impacts of UV radiation, is warranted. Even at current levels, UVB radiation is harmful to aquatic organisms and may reduce the productivity of marine ecosystems. Most UVB radiation research examines direct effects on specific organisms. The few studies that have investigated indirect effects demonstrate that UVB-induced changes in food-chain interactions can be far more significant than direct effects on individual organisms at any single trophic level. Norwegian research on UV radiation impacts in the Antarctic should focus on areas for which our knowledge remains inadequate; that is, indirect (ecosystem-level) effects. Specifically, the possibility that a UV-induced alteration in the nutritional quality of the food base is transmitted up through the food web to herbivorous zooplankton and fish larvae, and that this effect is temperature dependent, should be evaluated. 4.4.2 Ecotoxicology Important research areas will be: Bipolar studies of environmental contaminants in biota Ecotoxicology is not given high priority as a research topic in the present plan, but here would be interesting opportunities for bipolar studies in this field. The levels of contaminants in antarctic biota is generally low, but some substances, such as Mirex, are found in higher concentrations in antarctic top predators than in the Arctic. Concentrations in organisms of different contaminants are often correlated, and it is difficult to determine what substances are the most toxic. Thus, because of different compositions of environmental contaminants in arctic and antarctic biota, bipolar studies would be particularly useful to determine the most toxic components. Because of the low level of most contaminants in Antarctica, the main focus of the Norwegian activity should rather be on monitoring than research on effects of contaminants. 4.4.3 Psychology Research on health-based selection of crew for long-term stays on the Antarctic Continent is being conducted by several nations. Norwegian over-wintering personnel are too few in number to form a sound statistical base for behavioural or physiological analyses and thus Norway should continue to participate in the international research that has already begun, with follow-up of over-wintering personnel. 12 5 Surveys, thematic monitoring and prospecting 5.1 Surveying Norway recognises the inadequate basic knowledge of topographical and thematic data in Antarctica, and has a responsibility for surveying in the Norwegian claimant areas. This work has to be coordinated with other nations surveying activities. 5.1.1 Topographical surveying Norway has a commitment both to topographic and thematic surveying of Dronning Maud Land, for which the Norwegian Polar Institute is the national mapping authority. Topographical and geological mapping should continue in close collaboration with the other countries that carry out research and monitoring in Dronning Maud Land (e.g. Germany, Japan, and South Africa). Determination of the geoid is of crucial importance for navigation. 5.1.2 Geological surveying Basic geological surveying should focus on covering those areas of Dronning Maud Land that are not surveyed by other countries. In addition, basic geological investigations of the mountain range in Dronning Maud Land should be performed so as to reveal the geological history of that area. The geological research in Dronning Maud Land should also focus on geochronology and petrology as well as structural studies. 5.2 Monitoring Antarctica is still considered as a pristine continent and therefore gives a unique opportunity to monitor contaminant levels of atmosphere, terrestrial and ocean compartments. Monitoring of climate variables is important for study of the role of Antarctica in the global climate system context. The new Troll Station offers great potential for establishing atmospheric monitoring programmes that could enable comparisons between Arctic and Antarctica. 5.2.1 Contaminants Persistent organic pollutants (POPs) and heavy metals in atmosphere and ice are monitored in Norwegian arctic areas. Similar contaminant measurements could be established at the Troll Station. In addition, measurements of climate-related gases, and particles would be of interest. Moreover, measurements of ozone and UVradiation at the Troll Station would contribute a valuable supplement to measurements carried out at other stations. It is advisable that establishment of future Norwegian monitoring programmes is co-ordinated with ongoing international programs. 13 A concern during the last decades has been the accumulation of man-made harmful chemical compounds in virtually all ecosystems. An important group of pollutants in Antarctica are POPs which because of their large affinity to lipids, accumulate in the fatty tissue of living organisms and are concentrated upwards in the food web, reaching maximum concentration in the fatty tissue of top predators. However, levels of contaminants in Antarctic biota are generally low compared to other parts of the world. 5.2.2 Climate monitoring Initiation of standard meteorological measurements at Troll will add significantly to the coverage of the existing rather broad-scale regional distribution of sites for longterm meteorological observations. A number of long-term glaciological measurements could be established on the Troll area to study mass balance, superimposed ice formation, sub-surface melt water production, palaeoclimatology (ice coring), surface energy balance and glacier dynamics. These data should be related to information obtained by remote sensing. A few key locations have been identified as extremely useful for assessing long-term variability of ocean circulation under the ice shelf and formation of bottom water and are considered to be useful as sites for continuous monitoring. Strategic placed hydrographic sections should be established for ocean climate monitoring. A permanent manned station at Troll opens up the possibilities of establishing a High Resolution Picture Transmission (HRPT) station there for reception of satellite data from meteorological polar orbiting satellites. Such as facility is expected to attract considerable international interest, particularly to the meteorological service and other relevant entities in South Africa. A HRPT-station would also offer new opportunities for carrying out research projects and experiments in Antarctica. Reception of all satellite images covering the area would improve the monitoring of local weather conditions. Monitoring and collection of data from research stations and platforms equipped with Argos transmitters would also be facilitated. A HRPT station would also provide possibilities for reception of Advanced TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder (ATOVS) data from the South Atlantic Ocean, which would also be of interest for the international meteorological community. The establishment of advanced data communication facilities at Troll will make it possible to transmit relevant data to users in Norway and in other parts of the world. 5.2.3 Monitoring of marine living resources Norway has a commitment to the Committee on Conservation of Antarctic Marine Living Resources (CCAMLR), especially its Environmental Monitoring Programme (CEMP). This programme focuses on identifying significant changes occurring in the Southern Ocean ecosystem and on distinguishing changes due to the harvesting of natural resources from those that can be ascribed to natural causes. The access of top predators to krill is of particular interest to CEMP, and several species of seabirds and marine mammals have been identified and are subject to monitoring with this respect. 14 Norway participates in CEMP by monitoring of fur seal and penguin colonies at Bouvetøya. The Bouvetøya station bridges a significant gap in the global research community’s co-operative monitoring of the sub-antarctic islands. Although the establishment of an airstrip and the upgrade of the Troll Station in Dronning Maud Land open the possibility for monitoring of its avifauna, research rather than monitoring should be emphasised under the present science plan. 5.3 Bioprospecting Bioprospecting in the Antarctic may be of potential commercial importance. Antarctic organisms are adapted to cold environments and possess genetic and biochemical features that might be exploited commercially by the development of products such as industrial chemicals, drugs and genetic components. Internationally, there is now a considerable focus on mapping of genetic resources of polar organisms. In comparison with other countries, Norway’s research effort in bioprospecting is limited, but in the last few years there has been an increased focus in this field. An effort in bioprospecting in Antarctica may result in significant value creation for Norwegian industry. 6 Implementation This chapter focuses on national and international cooperation, recdruitment, technology development, financing and dissemination. 6.1 National co-operation The increased logistic flexibility onshore as well as offshore requires stronger national co-ordination in order to achieve the strategic goals. The Norwegian Polar Institute jointly with the Research Council of Norway should have the responsibility for this co-ordination. In order to realise this plan it is necessary to develop integrated national research programmes. Improved logistic facilities open for a more regular activity and long term funding. An important issue of the national co-ordination is to ensure a good balance between efforts related to data acquisition and data processing. 6.2 International co-operation The large challenges of antarctic research, both logistic and scientific, requires strong international co-operation. This calls for increased co-operation between Norway and other nations. The successful Nordic logistic co-operation should be further developed. The Troll station represents a unique potential and opportunity for increased scientific collaboration with the Nordic countries as well as other nations. Research in the Arctic and the Antarctic are important areas of future cooperation within the bilateral research cooperation between Norway and South-Africa. This 15 issue will include exchange of students and researchers between these two countries utilising research facilities in Svalbard and Antarctica. As a claimant state Norway should play a more active role in coordinating research in the Dronning Maud Land and adjacent sea areas. Norway should also be more proactive in development and steering of international antarctic research programmes and should contribute more significantly in research activities in programmes of high relevance for Norwegian research. The Research Council Recommend that: Norway should play an active role in participation and development of international research programmes. Norwegian scientist should be encouraged to coordinate and lead international research activities. 6.3 Recruitment There is a general need for recruitment within polar research. Following a period during which soft money for young scientists working on Norwegian projects in Antarctica has dwindled, adequate replacement must be ensured and, because of expanded future activity, improved access to qualified scientific personnel. To cover both immediate and future research needs in the next few years, during which many scientists will retire, project grants should be allocated both for experienced and young scientists; that is, for covering salaries and running expenses for researchers, post-docs and doctoral students. To ensure future recruitment at the highest levels, it is important to facilitate or stimulate to Master and PhD education in polar related research. Training in antarctic research may give a broader scope for recruits to polar research. Norway offers opportunities for arctic education, research training and research at the University Centre in Svalbard (UNIS). An active use of this resource for recruitment to research in the Antarctic will give a good utilization of skilled expertise and may also serve to strengthen bipolar research perspectives. The Norwegian Polar Institute and the research training at The Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, a national Centre of Excellence with emphasis on climate change in arctic regions, should be made use of for recruitment to projects in the Antarctica. The same goes for institutes at the four Norwegian universities with engagement in polar research. Thus, the Research Council will contribute to: Increased recruitment of Antarctic scientists both in the short and long-term (from junior to senior levels) 6.4 Technology demands and development 16 Observations from satellites and ocean- and earth-based measuring instruments integrated in model systems, act as the basis for state-of-the-art process studies and environmental and climate monitoring. There is a demand for further development of measuring technology for atmospheric, terrestrial and marine studies specially adapted to polar regions. This type of new technology would potentially have a large international commercial market. . The Research Council will: Stimulate the application and development of new measurement technology for use in the Antarctic 6.5 Environmental monitoring The upgrade of Troll to an all-year station in Dronning Maud Land improves the infrastructure basis for monitoring programmes related to climate change and environmental pollution. Long time-series are important for studies of climate end environmental changes, and for the predictions of future changes. Implementation of long-term monitoring is often difficult with regard to funding as this activity usually has been given low priority in relevant research programmes etc. The Research Council will: Contribute to establishment, maintenance and funding of long-term monitoring series of physical, chemical and biological environmental data as a fundament for monitoring and research of the environment and living resources in the Antarctic. 6.6 Financial implications We note that: Norway must ensure recruitment to the polar sciences The quality of antarctic marine research should be improved by ensuring coherence between the different projects participating on Norwegian cruises, thus ensuring maximal synergistic effects. Participation from other nations should be welcomed when scientifically appropriate. Terrestrial research in Antarctica should become more efficient and improved by the new infrastructure that facilitates more flexible timing and duration of expeditionary work; also the quality of research will be improved Year-round presence at Troll Station enables the establishment of long-term measurement programmes for crucial climate variables 17 Surveying and long-term environmental and biological monitoring are important background activities for management of claimant territories. Bi-polar research will significantly improve the cost/benefit ratio for Norwegian polar science Norway is now in the position to contribute significantly to international multidisciplinary projects and networks To take full advantage of these potentials, it is recommended that: Funding for research projects should not be limited to today’s earmarked NARE-funding from the Ministry of Environment. The Research Council of Norway (RCN), for instance, should be prepared to fund antarctic research though support from relevant Ministries. Additionally, RCN should stimulate to increased international financial support. Financial periods for research projects should be increased to up to 4 years. Funding of post-expedition data analysis and modelling has to be strengthened. Funding for surveying and long-term monitoring activities should be secured and be separated from funding of research projects. The annual budget of Norwegian antarctic research, monitoring and logistics need be substantially raised to fulfil the intentions of increased activities. 6.7 Dissemination Continuous dissemination of results from the research activities to the scientific community, authorities as well as the general public is a core objective of the Research Council. Research projects with public funding should therefore include plans for dissemination of their results. One challenge is to increase the public awareness of Antarctica. Another is to implement scientific results in management decisions for this region. Recommendations: Research projects and monitoring programmes should publish scientific results in peer-reviewed journals. Projects fulfilling this criterion should be favoured in the next call for proposals. Project results should be made available to all stakeholders. Dedicated dissemination should be made visible through a wide variety of channels, such as newspapers, popular-science journals, radio, television, the Internet, and the educational system (from elementary to university level), exhibitions, newsletters etc. 18 Relevant scientific results should be communicated to authorities in order to ensure an appropriate science-based management of the Antarctic. A centralised Internet home page and database should be established for all Norwegian antarctic activities and should be established and maintained, for instance by The Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI). Principal investigators should be required to provide updated regularly information to the database. 19