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Prosperous Way Down: Task Forces Ortega, E.; Gusman Ferraz, J.M.; Bacic, M.; Corazza, R., Fracalanza, P.S., Barreto, G., Campos, J.; Sabatier, M.A., Oncken, M.P., Azevedo, L. Ecological Engineering Laboratory, State University of Campinas, Rua Josué de Castro, 40, 13.083-862 Campinas, SP, Brasil E-mail: [email protected] 1 INTRODUCTION • 500 years ago, Portugal and Spain made a project to recover areas occupied by Arabs and Jews and also to expand over the World. This expansion generated deaths and nature destruction but transferred a lot of richness from America to Europe. • This process is now showing signals of collapse (ecological, monetary and climate). It is time to gather forces and promote a new model, in a democratic and conscious way. 2 PWD “Task Forces” • Howard and Elizabeth Odum suggested in the book “A Prosperous Way Down: Principles and Policy”, the organization of “task forces” to help people to face-up the transition to an ecological economy. • The organization of such groups involve identification, integration and organization of persons with different life experiences and different professional knowledge, all of them conscious of the importance of Climate Change Phenomena for Humanity´s Future and also aware of the need a social change. 3 OBJECTIVES The task force should concentrate efforts on the study of the following topics: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. Systems Ecology; Ecological and Social Resilience; Modelling and Simulation Techniques; Regional Planning; New kinds of extension services. The Task Force should integrate this knowledge and mobilize society. 4 THEORY / PRACTICE • We assume that the perception of a serious ecological-economical problem can promote the up-rise of a task force. The group should develop a continuous open-minded feedback to review its objectives and improve its organization and methods. • This approach is being used at the State University of Campinas in order to help the local water basin administration because there is a problem of water scarcity that is the result of many years of predatory occupation for the sole benefit of colonial metropolis and their local supporters. 5 Exergy intensity (transformity) of biosphere´s resources Social feedback of university Transformities distribution along the biosphere stocks using the three external exergy inflows (solar radiation, gravity force, geothermal uplift) 6 http://www.ecodebate.com.br/foto/120518jeda.png Thousands of millions of people World population from 8000 B.C. – 2100 A.C. Homeostasis 7 Technology http://econosystemics.com/?p=9 8 9 10 N Q * J JR K*JR*Q K8*Q * HT Odum Growth, climax, decline and recovering TWOSOURCE model equations: K3 = K1 - K2 K7 = K5 - K6 JR= J/(1+K*Q) DN= K4*N*Q DQ= K7*N*Q + K3*JR*Q - K8*Q The system returns to homeostasis! http://www.unicamp.br/fea/ortega/M&S/en/models/twoSources.html 11 In “Resilient School Leaders”, Jerry L. Patterson and Paul Kelleher presented a hysteresis plot for strongly impacted systems. 12 http://www.ascd.org/publications/books/104003/chapters/A-Deeper-Meaning-of-Resilience.aspx Mark T. Brown shows native forests recovery data in Florida, US, with and without human help. Ecological Engineering 24 (2005) 309–329 13 PROBLEM • Usually, when governments, enterprises and population become aware of the dangerous role of Climate Change they initially neglect the fact. 14 A dramatic change in the environment or the announcement of a new and very important vital fact Positive attitude False optimism Phase 1 Gratifynig solution Information shock Phase 4 Denial Integration Commitment Emotional state and productivity Pesimism Loss of expectatives Phase 2 Phase 3 Inquietude Resistance Negative attitude Well-informed optimism Danger zone Understanding, Quest and discovering Hope based on facts appraisal Responsabilty Time Adapted from Programa ExE, Barcelona, Spain, 2013. http://programaexe.org/si-yo-soy-un-agente-del-cambio/?lang=ca 15 PROPOSAL • This problem can be overcome if these institutions receive appropriate information about how to reduce the economy and, at the same time, recovering ecology and generating labor using hybrid ecological-economical alternatives. It is the role of a task force! 16