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1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Motto
“Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from
magic”
Arthur C. Clarke. 'Profiles of the Future' 1962
(Clarke's Third Law)
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Agenda
 Technologies to be managed
 Problems in information technology management
 Elements of technology management
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Information Technologies to be managed
 hardware
 software
 communications
 integration
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Problems in Information Technology Management
 multiplicity of technologies
 constantly changing technologies
 forecasting difficulty
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Multiplicity of Technologies - Hardware
 client/server
 smart/dumb
 mobile/static
 central/desktop/laptop/handheld
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Multiplicity of Technologies - Software
 philosophies – OOP, process oriented, rule based etc.
 operating systems – Windows versions, Unix versions, MVX, etc.
 languages – COBOL, C++, Java, Perl, CGI, Visual Basic, LISP …
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Multiplicity of Technologies - Communications
 point-to-point: copper wire/optical fibre/infrared/
 wireless: local loop/cellular/satellite
 analog/digital
 mobile/static
 protocols (software)
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Constantly Changing Technologies
 instant obsolescence
 the variant life cycle problem
 integration of different generations
 but see also possible negative effects of standards
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Information System Economics
Technology Management
Possible Disadvantages of Standards
MS DOS shows the power of the marketplace in deciding which
standards will be adopted most widely. Kindly stated, it is user
hostile, arbitrary, over complex, intolerant of errors and novices, and
badly designed. However, it became the standard across the
personal computer field once IBM chose it over several nowforgotten competitors’ operating systems. It created an industry. Even
though IBM introduced an entirely new operating system on its PS/2
series machines, DOS is alive and thriving …
Peter G.W. Keen. Shaping The Future: Business Design Through
Information technology. Harvard Business School Press, 1991.
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Information System Economics
Technology Management
Forecasting Difficulty
“Every big advance in the past 20 years was not predicted; they were
only understood after they were in existence” McNurlin & Sprague,
p.193
 over-optimism – techno-hype 
 effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL - wireless local loop)
 effects of lack of standardization (e.g. cellular phones in US)
 computing – how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting)
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Examples of Techno-hype
 telecommuting
 ISDN
 Business Process Reengineering (BPR)
Hammer, M. 1990. "Reengineering work: don't automate,
obliterate," Harvard Business Review 68 (4, JulyAugust): 104-112.
 Artificial Intelligence
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Forecasting Difficulty
 over-optimism – techno-hype
 effects of changing regulations (e.g. WLL)
 effects of lack of standardization (e.g. cellular phones in US)
 computing – how mobile? (e.g. telecommuting)
examples from AI and Expert Systems
: Artificial
ArtificialIntelligence
Intelligence:
History
& Future
History
& Future
Predicting
Developments
Predicting Developments
in in
AI AI
The history
of predictions
The history
of predictions
Simon and Chess
Simon and Chess
McCarthy
and common sense
McCarthy and
common sense
Artificial Intelligence:
History & Future
Predicting Developments in AI
The need for a sense of history, e.g.
the wheel
medicine
the Internet
Artificial Intelligence:
History & Future
Predicting Developments in AI
The need for humility and perspective
Given the history, how to predict the
future?
Artificial Intelligence:
History & Future
Strong AI Questions
Can a machine think? (The Turing test)
Can a machine learn?
Can a Chinese room think?
Can a machine have emotions?
Can a machine have consciousness?
Is the brain a quantum level phenomenon?
What is the nature of (human) intelligence?
Artificial Intelligence:
History & Future
The Loebner Prize Medal and a cash award is awarded
annually to the designer of the computer system that best
succeeds in passing a variant of the Turing Test. In 1999,
$2,000 and a bronze medal will be awarded to the designer of
the Most Human Computer as rated by a panel of judges.
… the winner of the $100000 Grand Prize must be prepared to
deal with audio visual input, and appropriate competitions will
be held once competitors have reached Turing's 30:70
likelihood level of being mistaken for a human. An intermediate
Turing Prize of $25000 will be offered for the first/best program
to exceed this level.
Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner
*** JUDGE00 ***
PROGRAM[11:30:34]
PROGRAM[11:30:34]Let's start.
*** JUDGE05 ***
PROGRAM[11:52:22]
PROGRAM[11:52:22]Ready
JUDGE05[11:52:39]Hi! I'm Greg.
PROGRAM[11:52:41]Hi
PROGRAM[11:52:44]Nice to meet you .
JUDGE05[11:53:12]How are you today?
PROGRAM[11:53:13]I'm fine thanks
JUDGE05[11:53:53]What sort of things are you interested in?
PROGRAM[11:54:21]I am not interested in Astrology although my star sign is
Libra.
JUDGE05[11:54:38]Why is that?
PROGRAM[11:55:05]One never knows one's destiny, that's the mystery of life.
JUDGE05[11:56:25]Yes. What direction have you gone in through life so far?
PROGRAM[11:56:38]Yes well they travel here but where have you travelled.
PROGRAM[11:57:09]I have seen people suck coffee through a Tim Tam.
Robby Garner - 1999 Loebner Prize Winner (cont’d)
JUDGE05[11:58:33]A number of places. Have you tried that with tea?
PROGRAM[11:58:47]Airports are such soulless places, don't you think?
PROGRAM[11:58:57]Of course
JUDGE05[11:59:57]Yes, but you can catch up with work there sometimes.Do you
find that?
PROGRAM[12:00:02]You have to be interested in politics in a democracy.
JUDGE05[12:00:36]Why do you say that?
PROGRAM[12:00:48]My brother thinks Dilbert portrays a very realistic picture of
the software industry.
JUDGE05[12:01:37]How would you relate that to politics?
PROGRAM[12:01:53]That has nothing to do with politics
JUDGE05[12:02:41]So why can't people be uninterested in politics?
PROGRAM[12:02:56]People who play the money market don't produce anything
so should therefore be ostracized from society.
JUDGE05[12:04:05]How would the economy work if you did that?
PROGRAM[12:04:22]I think the effects of a bad Japanese economy will be
disastrous.
JUDGE05[12:04:37]Goodbye.
PROGRAM[12:04:37]Bye
JUDGE05[12:12:05]
A Young Lady’s Session with (the Rogerian) DOCTOR
(ca. 1965)
YOUNG LADY:
DOCTOR:
YOUNG LADY:
DOCTOR
YOUNG LADY:
DOCTOR:
YOUNG LADY:
DOCTOR:
YOUNG LADY:
DOCTOR:
YOUNG LADY:
DOCTOR:
YOUNG LADY:
DOCTOR:
YOUNG LADY:
Men are all alike
In what way
They’re always bugging us about something or other
Can you think of a specific example
Well, my boyfriend made me come here
Your boyfriend made you come here
He says I’m depressed most of the time
I am sorry to hear you are depressed
It’s true. I am unhappy
Do you think coming here will help you not to be unhappy
I need some help, that much seems certain
What would it mean to you if you got some help
Perhaps I could learn to get along with my mother
Tell me more about your family
My mother takes care of me
A Young Lady’s Session with (the Rogerian) DOCTOR (cont’d)
DOCTOR:
Who else in your family takes care of you
YOUNG LADY: My father
DOCTOR:
Your father
YOUNG LADY: You are like my father in some ways
DOCTOR:
What resemblance do you see
YOUNG LADY: You are not very aggressive but I think you don’t want me to
notice that
DOCTOR:
What makes you think I am not very aggressive
YOUNG LADY: You don’t argue with me
DOCTOR:
Why do you think I don’t argue with you
YOUNG LADY: You are afraid of me
DOCTOR:
Does it please you to believe I am afraid of you
YOUNG LADY: My father is afraid of everybody
DOCTOR:
What else comes to mind when you think of your father
YOUNG LADY: Bullies
DOCTOR:
Does that have anything to do with the fact that your boyfriend
made you come here
Loebner Competition Scores - 1999
Term Median Mean Humanness
Responsive
Turing H/C
ness
Identity
8
11.00 10.09
2.00
1.82
0.0%
C
Gerold Gorman - Algernon
(geckont/VisualStudio 08)
1
10.00
9.09
1.64
1.55
1.8%
C
Bradley Custer Amos/Julie (titan/C 01)
7
9.00
8.73
1.73
2.18
5.5%
C
Jason Hutchens – Noni
(hdnt/C 07)
2
8.00
8.27
1.82
1.82
1.8%
C
Chris & Sandy Johnson Chris (telnet/Access 02)
6
7.00
7.00
2.36
3.18
5.5%
C
David Hamill - Mabel
(atlas/Perl 06)
3
6.00
6.55
3.27
3.36
10.9%
C
Robby Garner - Albert/Jim
(platypus/DataFlex 03)
0
4.00
3.73
7.00
7.27
34.1%
H
James Moor - rgu1
(confederate 00)
5
3.00
3.45
7.82
7.73
50.0%
H
Susan G - rgu6
(confederate 05)
10
3.00
3.18
8.27
8.09
52.3%
H
Michael B - rgu11
(confederate 10)
9
3.00
2.91
9.27
8.91
52.3%
H
Klara V - rgu10
(confederate 09)
4
2.00
3.00
8.64
8.82
61.4%
H
John Reeves - rgu5
(confederate 04)
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Forecasting Difficulty
Knowledge representation, especially commonsense
knowledge, is becoming the key to technological
development!
Artificial Intelligence:
History & Future
Roadblocks in the Development of AI
Knowledge acquisition
Representational knowledge
Emergent knowledge
Artificial Intelligence:
History & Future
Roadblocks in the Development of AI
Commonsense knowledge
Implicit knowledge
“John broke his piggy bank to buy Mary a Barbie doll for
her birthday.”
Fuzzy knowledge
“canary: a small finch of the Canary Islands that is usually
greenish to yellow and is kept as a cage bird and
singer.”
Context
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Information System Economics
Technology Management
Lessons From Expert Systems
Edward A. Feigenbaum
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Information System Economics
Technology Management
Elements of Technology Management
 create an architecture – a set of policies,
principles and guidelines
paraphrased from McNurlin & Sprague, p. 191
 creating an architecture requires a vision
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Elements of Technology Management
Positioning the IT Platform
 scope
 range
 growth
 standards
 adaptability to new developments
 adaptability to organizational needs
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Elements of Technology Management
Final Thoughts
 develop a vision of where you want the IT platform to
be in the future in terms of the organizations needs
 observe critically – beware of magic bullets
 be sceptical!
1242.2219
Information System Economics
Technology Management
Summary
 Technologies to be managed
 Problems in information technology management
 multiple technologies
 changing technologies
 standards
 forecasting
 technohype
 Elements of technology management