Download Authoritarianism and Democratization in the Middle East

Authoritarianism and
Democratization in the Middle
East
A Comparative Analysis
Plan
● Bassam Tibi “Why they can’t be democratic” 2008
● Tarek Masoud “Has the Door Closed on Arab
Democracy?” 2015
● Larry Diamond “Why are there no Arab Democracies?”
2010
● Michael Ross “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?” 2001
● Lisa Blaydes and Drew Linzer “Elite Competition,
Religiosity and Anti-Americanism in the Islamic World”
2012
Bassam Tibi: “Why they can’t be democratic.”
● His argument: Islam can be compatible with democracy, however
Islamism cannot.
● Definitions:
o Islam: a faith and a system of ethics. Is not inherently political
o Islamism: a political ideology based on the religion of Islam
● Provides a critique of the way in which the prospects of democracy in the
Islamic world are discussed.
o “Are Islam and democracy compatible?” and “How democratic is
Islamism” are two very different questions (44)
● Islamism:
o Distinction between violent and peaceful Islamists
o Difference in means, not in ends: nizam Islami based on shari’a law
o Neither are compatible with democracy
Islamism and Pluralism
“Is there potential for Islamist parties to develop a ‘genuine commitment to
democracy’ by embracing a liberal understanding of democratic pluralism?”
(45)
● No.
● Nizam Islami is totalitarian in nature - sacred and non-negotiable
● Any shifts in thinking are ingenuine rhetorical strategies or amount to an
abandonment of Islamism
● There often isn’t a sharp distinction between violent and peaceful Islamism
eg. Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Supreme Council
for Islamic Revolution in Iraq
● Conclusion: what is to be done?
● Critique: does not develop the argument for when and how Islam can be
compatible with democracy.
Tarek Masoud “Has the Door Closed on Arab Democracy?”
Tarek Masoud “Has the Door Closed on Arab Democracy?”
Explaining failure of democracy
Explaining failure of democracy
Argument: authoritarianism is exceptionally durable in MENA. He
deconstructs arguments for failure of democracy, but does not offer an
alternative argument. Instead, he says that the results of the Arab
Spring will shed more light onto the subject.
1. Transition to democracy is a long process.
2. Lack of economic and social development hinders democracy
3. Islam
4. Arab culture
Prospects of democracy in MENA
● If democracy were to emerge, it would probably be through and
evolutionary rather than revolutionary process
● Terry Lynn Karl: in Latin America, revolutions either resulted in counterrevolutions or one party states
● Most likely to emerge in countries where the state was strong enough to
survive the Arab Spring, but not enough to not to respond to it eg.
Morocco, Jordan, Algeria
● Critique: lacks conclusiveness in explaining failure of democracy due to
weak methodology
Larry Diamond “Why are there no Arab Democracies?”
Argument: authoritarian statecraft and geopolitics explain
the absence of democracy in the Arab world
Rejected Arguments
● Religion and culture
o “there is a big ‘democracy gap’ among states in the world, but it is an
Arab much more than a ‘Muslim’ gap” (94)
o culture of autocracy and obedience: democratization occurred in
states in which authoritarianism has always prevailed
● Sectarian and ethnic divisions
o Iraq and Lebanon (most democratic) vs Egypt and Tunisia (most
authoritarian) *outdated*
● Lipset’s modernization theory - underdeveloped
o “one can find at any level of development, and by any measure,
numerous democracies that are about as developed as the respective
Arab nondemocracies.” (97)
● Oil curse
Authoritarian statecraft
● Authoritarianism in the Middle East is characterized by
“guided pluralism, controlled elections, and selective
repression” (99)
o guided pluralism: eg. Jordan
o controlled elections: eg. Egypt 2004-5
o selective repression: eg. Egypt 2004-5
Geopolitics
1. Foreign aid is like oil: it is a source of rent
2. Arab-Israeli conflict
o
doesn’t provide any evidence or support for this
argument
3. Arab league
Michael Ross “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”
● Question: does oil hinder democracy? If so, what is the causal mechanism?
Video Link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ksG-isNXyug
Michael Ross “Does Oil Hinder Democracy?”
● Hypothesis: oil hinders democracy because of three effects:
o the rentier effect: oil rents keep taxes low and patronage high ->
maintain low pressure for representation
o the repression effect: oil rents are used to create large security
apparatuses that repress demands for democratization
o the modernization effect: economic growth from oil wealth does not
produce the social and cultural prerequisites for democracy
● Methodology: uses pooled time-series cross-national data from 113 states
between 1971 and 1997
o tests the effects of oil and other mineral wealth
o other variables: income, Islam etc.
Results
● Oil and mineral wealth have significant anti-democratic effects
● Other primary commodities that do not produce rents (agriculture and
food) do not
● Oil and mineral curse is not limited to the Middle East
● Higher taxes are associated with democratic governments (rentier effect)
● Oil wealth is associated with higher military spending (repression effect)
● Oil wealth is associated with lower levels of occupational specialization
(modernization effect)
● Critique: correlation is not causation.
Blaydes & Linzer “Elite Competition, Religiosity and AntiAmericanism in the Islamic World”
● Question: Why do many Muslims hold anti-American sentiments?
Blaydes & Linzer “Elite Competition, Religiosity and AntiAmericanism in the Islamic World”
● Hypothesis: popular anti-Americanism is an elite-led phenomenon that is
intensified in circumstances where there is greater competition between
Islamist and secular factions.
● Methodology:
o case studies: Turkey, Morocco, Senegal
o multilevel statistical analysis of public opinion data from 13,000
Muslim respondents in 21 countries
● Findings: the most anti-American sentiments are found in countries in
which the Muslim population is less religious (i.e. more divided on the
Islamist-secular issue)
Theory
● Paradox: “although religious Muslims are more anti-American than their
secular compatriots, anti-American attitudes are most prevalent in more
secular countries...” (226)
● Argument:
o attitudes towards America are shaped by the messages that
individuals are exposed to by political elites and mass media
o environment of higher political competition between Islamist and
secular groups -> stronger incentive to exploit anti-American
sentiment for political gain -> more anti-American rhetoric -> more
anti-American attitudes
o therefore, lower anti-Americanism in more hegemonic societies and
higher anti-Americanism in more divided societies
Findings
● Survey findings:
o Religious Muslims are more anti-American than secular compatriots
o Anti-Americanism is more prevalent in countries where there is a
higher perceived Islamist-secularist divide and where there is lower
levels of religiosity
● Case study findings:
o Turkey: high level of perceived struggle, low level of religiosity - high
anti-Americanism
o Morocco: medium level of perceived struggle, medium level of
religiosity - medium anti-Americanism
o Senegal: low level of perceived struggle, high level of religiosity - low
anti-Americanism
Overview
● Tibi: Islamists cannot be democratic because their ideology is totalitarian
● Masoud: Authoritarianism in the Arab world is exceptionally durable, but
if democracy were to appear anywhere, it would be through evolutionary
means
● Diamond: The absence of Arab democracies can be explained by
authoritarian statecraft, which exhibits a cyclical pattern of liberalization,
and geopolitical factors
● Ross: Economic growth generated by oil wealth hinders democracy
● Blaydes and Linzer: Anti-Americanism is most prevalent in Muslim
majority countries with significant struggle between elite political groups
as they use anti-American sentiment to gain political support
Discussion Questions
● Is it better to include or exclude Islamists from politics? Think about how
you define “Islamist”.
● Do you agree with Masoud that if democracy were to arise in the Middle
East, it is most likely going to arise in the countries that weathered the
Arab Spring, such as Morocco and Jordan?
● Is democracy more likely to succeed through evolutionary or revolutionary
reform?
● Do you think democracy is the inevitable end - or an inevitable stage - in
political development?