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CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 Submitted to REGIONAL TECHNICAL FORUM Submitted by RTF CVR Subcommittee DRAFT - May 15, 2012 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 Table of Contents 1 PURPOSE ................................................................................................... 1 2 SUNSET CRITERIA ......................................................................................... 1 3 DEFINITION OF KEY TERMS ............................................................................. 1 4 ELIGIBLE PROJECTS ....................................................................................... 2 5 REQUIRED KNOWLEDGE AND SKILLS OF PRACTITIONER .......................................... 3 6 DATA COLLECTION REQUIREMENTS .................................................................. 3 6.1 6.2 6.3 6.4 Temperature Data............................................................................................................ 3 M&V Field Metering Data ................................................................................................ 3 Instrumentation Accuracy ............................................................................................... 4 Shop Calibration and Field Verification ........................................................................... 4 7 POST-PERIOD RE-VERIFICATION TRIGGERS ......................................................... 4 8 PRE-CVR (BASELINE) AND POST-CVR DESCRIPTIONS AND PERFORMANCE................. 5 8.1 Primary Method ............................................................................................................... 5 8.1.1 Gather Historical VCZ Data .............................................................................................. 5 8.1.2 Perform VCZ Load Flow Assessments .............................................................................. 5 8.1.2.1 Load Flow Simulation and System Performance Assessments .......................... 6 8.1.2.2 Voltage Operation Parameters for Pre-CVR and Post-CVR ................................ 6 8.1.3 Application Specifications For Meters ............................................................................. 7 8.1.3.1 VCZ source metering .......................................................................................... 7 8.1.3.2 VCZ lowest voltage location metering (typically at end-of-line) ........................ 7 8.2 Alternate Method ............................................................................................................ 7 9 ENERGY SAVINGS CALCULATION METHOD (PRELIMINARY AND VERIFICATION) ............ 8 9.1 Primary Method ............................................................................................................... 8 9.1.1 Selection of 90 day Verification Period ........................................................................... 8 9.1.2 Preliminary Estimate of Savings ...................................................................................... 8 9.1.2.1 General Estimating Formulation......................................................................... 8 9.1.2.2 Determine Total Energy ANNUAL ...................................................................... 9 9.1.2.3 Determine CVR FACTOR-Estimated ................................................................... 9 9.1.2.4 Determine ΔV ANNUAL-Estimate .................................................................... 10 9.1.2.5 Preliminary Estimated Energy Savings ............................................................. 10 9.1.3 Determination of Verified Savings................................................................................. 10 9.1.3.1 General Non-Linear Regression Formulation ................................................... 11 9.1.3.2 Verified annual CVR factor determination ....................................................... 11 9.1.3.3 Verified annual change in average voltage ΔV determination ......................... 12 9.1.3.3.1 Calculation of average annual Pre-CVR voltage ......................................... 12 9.1.3.3.1.1 Determine Pre-CVR (Baseline) parameters C, D, E, F for a VCZ ......... 12 9.1.3.3.1.2 Determine Pre-CVR “A” &” B” for measurement period ................... 12 9.1.3.3.1.3 The Pre-CVR average annual primary voltage ................................... 12 9.1.3.3.2 Calculation of average annual Post-CVR voltage ....................................... 13 i CVR Standard Savings Estimation Protocol - Fan VFD 9.1.3.3.2.1 Determine Post-CVR parameters C, D, E, F for a VCZ ........................ 13 9.1.3.3.2.2 Determine Post-VO “A” &” B” for measurement period ................... 13 9.1.3.3.2.3 VCZ-Post average annual primary voltage ......................................... 13 9.1.3.4 Verified annual energy savings ......................................................................... 14 9.1.4 Commissioning Performance Verification ..................................................................... 14 9.2 Alternative Method........................................................................................................ 14 9.2.1 Selection of Verification Period ..................................................................................... 14 9.2.2 Preliminary Estimate of Savings .................................................................................... 14 9.2.3 Determination of Verified Savings................................................................................. 14 9.2.3.1 CVRf Estimation (applies to the performance evaluation period) ................... 15 9.2.3.2 Automated CVR Performance Forecasting ....................................................... 15 10 RTF CALCULATOR MODEL ........................................................................... 15 10.1 Primary Method ............................................................................................................. 15 10.1.1 10.1.2 Calculator Specifications Summary For Each voltage control zone ........................ 16 Calculation (summary) ............................................................................................ 17 10.2 Alternative Method........................................................................................................ 18 11 CONTROL GROUP: ..................................................................................... 18 12 RELATIONSHIP TO OTHER PROTOCOLS AND GUIDELINES ....................................... 18 13 RECOMMENDED MODELS AND TOOLS: ............................................................ 18 13.1 Primary Method Models and Tools ............................................................................... 18 13.2 Alternative Method Models and Tools .......................................................................... 19 14 ii REFERENCES: ............................................................................................ 19 Error! No text of specified style in document. CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 1 Purpose The Conservation Voltage Reduction (CVR) Standard Measurement and Verification (M&V) Protocol #1 provides the simplest reliable approach to determination of energy savings when operating the electric distribution system at a lower voltage and within the lower band of the ANSI Standard voltage range. The Protocol is applied to single voltage control zones (VCZ) of utility and industrial primary electrical systems serving any combination of residential, commercial, and industrial load, operated radially with primary voltage class 12.47kVLL or greater. Voltage control is provided by source voltage regulators or transformer LTCs. The VCZ lowest voltage is generally found at the end-of-line located within the VCZ. The system may include switched shunt capacitors to control var flow, but is not directly used to control voltage. The VCZ may have feeders extending from a single source voltage regulator. Techniques used in lowering voltage can include: fixed voltage reduction at source, line drop compensation applications at source, or automated voltage feedback control systems with end-of-line voltage sensing. The measurement and verification of energy savings from lowering the operating average voltage is performed in eight sequential steps. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. Gather historical VCZ data, Perform VCZ load flow assessments Select 90 day verification period Estimate preliminary energy savings Install VCZ improvements, meters, and voltage controls Collect field measurements from Pre-CVR and Post-CVR operation Determine verified energy savings Collect annual operation data for verification of persistence This protocol specifies minimum acceptable data collection requirements and the method by which these data are to be used in computing savings. The protocol describes two methods to determine energy savings: Primary Protocol Method and Alternate Protocol Method. The Alternate Protocol Method is assumed the same as the Primary except where noted. 2 Sunset Criteria This protocol is approved for use until December 31, 2017 at which time it shall be reviewed for continued approval by the RTF. 3 Definition of Key Terms Automated CVR System: Automated CVR (ACVR) systems are also known as Volt/VAR Optimization (VVO) systems, Integrated Volt/VAR Control (IVVC) systems and by other names and acronyms when Revised 1-24-2012 1 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 they are being operated in a CVR mode. They key feature is that they be considered a “smart grid” Distribution Automation (DA) application. Baseline: Each Voltage Control Zone (VCZ) acts as its own baseline in the protocol without improved voltage control (e.g. CVR mode off days) during the protocol testing period. The baseline must meet all applicable ANSI and IEEE Standards for operation of electrical systems and meet recommended performance guidelines (e.g., minimum end-of-line primary voltage, power factor, load imbalance, etc.) Conservation Voltage Regulation/Reduction (CVR): CVR is the operating practice of controlling distribution feeder voltage so that utilization devices operate at their peak efficiency, which is usually at a level near the lower bounds of their utilization and/or nameplate voltages. Conservation Voltage Regulation/Reduction Factor (CVRf): CVRf is the ratio of per unit (or %) energy saved to per unit (or %) average voltage reduced. The CVRf refers to a period of one year of energy savings and average voltage reduction. The CVRf represents the average slope on the utilization device’s efficiency curve between the current voltage and the new proposed regulated voltage. For example, a CVRf of 1.00 would essentially indicate a 1% reduction in energy usage for every 1% reduction in voltage. Voltage Control Zone (VCZ): The voltage control zone is any segment of a utility or industrial feeder and it’s laterals from its initiation typically at the substation with source voltage control by either regulators, or transformer LTC. The VCZ is operated radially with the lowest voltage point typically at or near the end-of-line of one of the VCZ feeders or laterals. Project: The CVR project is one that includes voltage reduction techniques to lower the average annual voltage on a utility’s distribution feeder or feeders feeding residential, commercial and industrial customers/loads. Post Period Re-Verification: The re-verification of CVRfs , average voltage change, and energy savings is performed when significant changes have occurred to either the feeder load, voltage control operation, load characteristics, or the physical configuration of the voltage control zone. Commissioning: The called project commissioning is the process of testing and verifying system compliance with applicable standards and performance guidelines required to ensure that the new and improved voltage control system is functioning properly. 4 Eligible Projects Eligible projects include all installations or implementations of CVR systems (local control and automated feedback systems) on utility substations or feeders where these systems can be turned on and off on a daily basis and have the voltage set-points changed on a daily basis. The project has the ability to measure and record hourly average source and end-of-line voltages, ambient temperatures, kW, and kvar loads on each feeder in the voltage control zone. Measurements can be made using devices such as multifunction meters, recloser controls, solid state relays, SCADA RTUs, or equivalent data measurement systems. Average interval data is collected and stored one hour interval or less. Revised 1-24-2012 2 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 5 Required Knowledge and Skills of Practitioner The practitioner who has lead responsibility for applying this protocol to an automated CVR system must have a full understanding of the following: Appropriate knowledge of the application of voltage control systems used with distribution systems. Appropriate knowledge of the use of engineering time series analysis in a Microsoft Excel workbook Appropriate knowledge to collect data, develop distribution system models, and run distribution feeder load flow models (i.e., Cyne, SynerGee, FeederALL, ETap, or Milsoft). Appropriate knowledge of distribution feeder and substation operations Understand the requirements and procedures of this protocol For the Alternate Protocol Method, the practitioner must have additional understanding of: Appropriate knowledge of the use of statistical procedures used to analyze non-Gaussian data a MatLab® M-Code environment Inspect and interpret raw feeder energy and voltage data 6 Data Collection Requirements 6.1 TEMPERATURE DATA Correct temperature data is essential to the accurate use of this verification method. The hourly ambient average temperature at the voltage control zone source (typically at the substation) is to be measured and recorded. Because the substation is usually at the geographic center of the area served, this temperature will usually suffice. However, if significant microclimates are known to exist, temperature monitoring and recording may also be required at the feeder end-of-line locations, so that an average temperature for the voltage control zone may be obtained. 6.2 M&V FIELD METERING DATA The M&V field metering data recording periods should be no greater than one hour. Weather data should be collected on the same time period as the load data. Data collected is to be collected and stored and is subject to audit. During the verification measurement period, collect metering data and then load data to an Excel spreadsheet for data clean up and processing. The data collected during the verification measurement period includes ambient hourly temperature measurements (at VCZ source), hourly voltage at source, end-of-line voltage (lowest), and hourly load at source. Time stamp all hourly data measurements and mark with identifier to represent “CVR on” or “CVR off” periods. The VCZ data to be measured includes the following where i refers to hourly read numbers: Revised 1-24-2012 3 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 Source hourly average kWi Source Amps by Phase at peak kva Amp1,2,3 Source hourly average kvari Source hourly average VSource-i Source hourly average Tempi End-of-Line hourly average hourly average voltage VEOL1-i , VEOL2-i, VEOL3-i Once data is collected, perform the necessary clean up and filtering of kW and V data to identify and remove data outliers, missing data, errors, switching, partial time stamp data, abnormal switching, and weather anomalies from the data pool. Provide time plots of data to enhance data cleaning process. The result should be of at least 90 days of representative data. It may be helpful to select a metering period longer than 90 days to allow for some data removal. 6.3 INSTRUMENTATION ACCURACY Data collection can be achieved using multifunction meters, recloser controls, regulator controls, SCADA RTUs, solid state relays, or equivalent data collection and storage systems which meet or exceed all applicable IEEE and ANSI metering standards. The resultant secondary metering accuracy including current transformers, potential transformer and other burdens is to be capable of at least ±0.6% for kW sensing, ±1.2% for kvar sensing, ±0.1% for voltage sensing on 120 V base. 6.4 SHOP CALIBRATION AND FIELD VERIFICATION Instruments and meters should be shop calibrated by a third party certified metering specialist. Field verification and inspections are required to verify correct installation and correct readings. 7 Post-Period Re-verification Triggers Once per year for the three years following the improved CVR installation, a persistence verification review will be conducted. Document any system changes that may impact annual savings or significantly change the operation parameters. Do not include impacts from abnormal operation conditions. Temperature correct annual emerge delivered and peak demands if necessary before calculating annual average primary voltage. The variables to be document are annual: Source maximum, minimum, and average kW and kvar, (weather adjusted) Maximum, minimum, and average VSource Maximum, minimum, and average VEOL Total Energy kWh delivered (weather adjusted) * Calculated average primary voltage V (weather adjusted) If there is more than a 15% change for annual average primary voltage, annual total energy kWh delivered, annual minimum or maximum voltages, or annual kW and kvar demands, re-verification will Revised 1-24-2012 4 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 be required consisting of a 90 day measurement period. There-verification is to follow the same M&V protocol requirements as performed originally. 8 Pre-CVR (Baseline) and Post-CVR Descriptions and Performance The baseline voltage levels are established by the historical voltage control operations with regulator or LTC control settings. One or more years of historical regulator or LTC setting information should be made part of the verification data records. The baseline must meet all applicable ANSI and IEEE Standards for operation of electrical systems and meet recommended performance guidelines (e.g., minimum end-of-line primary voltage, maximum primary voltage, and phase imbalance and power factor). In some cases, it may be necessary to add improvements to the existing system in order to comply with applicable standards and performance guidelines. 8.1 PRIMARY METHOD 8.1.1 GATHER HISTORICAL VCZ DATA Historical distribution VCZ data is collected prior to the verification measurement period for each VCZ and includes: 8760 hourly load shape (LoadShapekWi), previous annual energy delivered (TotalEnergyANNUAL) corrected or adjusted to best represent the predicted energy delivered, annual load factor (LDFANNUAL), annual hourly peak load (kWPEAK), reactive kvar load data, voltage kV class (kVLL), customer classification mix % (Res, Com, Ind), estimate % of electric space heat load (kWhVCZ-ElecHeat) and % of space AC load (kWhVCZ-AC) of total annual energy. Identify the voltage base used for all measurements (i.e. 120V). Describe the VCZ electrical configurations, modeling, and operation practices. The VCZ voltage regulation control settings at the source for Pre-CVR (Baseline) conditions include: voltage set point (VsetPre), voltage control regulation settings (i.e., R &X), and regulation control CT rating and PT ratio. Identify the VCZ highest allowed primary voltage VMAX and the lowest allowed primary voltage (usually at end-of-line) VMIN. Allowed voltage limits must comply with ANSI C84.1 Voltage Standard Guidelines. It is suggested that the VCZ design and operation should comply with the IEEE 141-1986 Standard “Recommended Practice for Electric Power Distribution for Industrial Plants”. For example, if the maximum allowed secondary system voltage drop (Vdrop-SEC) is 4V on a 120V base, and the minimum allowed ANSI voltage is 114V at the service entrance with regulated voltage bandwidth BW is 2V, then the minimum allowed primary voltage VMIN is 119V or 114V+½BW+Vdrop-SEC. For utility and industrial facilities and plants, IEEE 141-1986 also recommends power factor, BW, (VdropPRI), (Vdrop-SEC), flicker, and max and min secondary service voltage limitations. 8.1.2 PERFORM VCZ LOAD FLOW ASSESSMENTS Revised 1-24-2012 5 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 The selected VCZ is modeled for the Pre-CVR (Baseline) and the proposed Post-CVR system using accepted industry distribution modeling software for primary conductors, phase configurations, source voltage regulation controls, and peak load allocation for kW and kvar. The primary voltage control is accomplished by first maintaining var flow to desired limits, and second, apply voltage control with regulator/LTC tap changes. The primary switching of capacitors shall be by var control. Other capacitor switching methods (i.e. time, voltage, kVA) can be applied as backup for emergency use. Voltage controlled capacitors may cause excessive leading or lagging var flow on the system and cause the VCZ voltage drop profiles to become excessively non-uniform and increase line loss. 8.1.2.1 Load Flow Simulation and System Performance Assessments Using load flow simulation, perform an Existing Case assessment of VCZ real and reactive power flows and feeder voltages. Estimate maximum and minimum power factors, phase imbalance, maximum voltage drops, maximum primary voltage, and end-of-line lowest voltage. Identify VCZ minimum performance guideline violations. Identify VCZ improvements (phase balancing, phase upgrades, reconductoring, enhanced var management, and regulator additions) necessary to maintain VCZ Pre-CVR (Baseline) operation within the recommended performance guidelines. Any exception shall be noted and justified. The Pre-CVR (Baseline) and the proposed Post-CVR system implementation system must comply with the following recommended performance guidelines: At peak kW loading conditions, the maximum phase load imbalance < 20%. At peak kW loading conditions, the minimum hourly power factor >95% At peak kVA loading conditions, the minimum hourly power factor > 95% At peak kW loading conditions, the minimum end-of-line primary voltage > VMIN At peak kW loading conditions, the minimum end-of-line primary voltage < VMAX At min kW loading conditions, the maximum phase load imbalance < 20%. At min kW loading conditions, the minimum hourly power factor >95% At min kVA loading conditions, the minimum hourly power factor > 95% At min kW loading conditions, the minimum end-of-line primary voltage > VMIN At min kW loading conditions, the minimum end-of-line primary voltage < VMAX 8.1.2.2 Voltage Operation Parameters for Pre-CVR and Post-CVR Assuming VCZ improvements are installed and the VCZ complies with minimum performance guidelines, use the load flow model to determine voltage operation parameters for the Pre-CVR (Baseline) and proposed Post-CVR conditions. The Pre-CVR (Baseline) voltage operation parameters obtained from load flow results include: voltage set point (VsetPre), maximum annual source voltage rise (VrisePre) above set point, maximum annual feeder voltage drop (VdropPre) from source to end-of-line (lowest voltage). The proposed Post-CVR parameters obtained from load flow results are (VsetPost), (VrisePost), and (VdropPost). All voltage values are given in Volts on 120 Volt base. Revised 1-24-2012 6 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 The CVR Standard M&V Protocol documentation of the Pre-CVR (Baseline) and proposed Post-CVR systems including enhancements and improvements proposed. The proposed Post-CVR system must also comply with recommended performance guidelines. 8.1.3 APPLICATION SPECIFICATIONS FOR METERS Once the preliminary energy savings potential estimate is performed (See Section 9.1.2), the VCZ improvements (meters, regulators, capacitors, phase balancing, reconductoring, etc.) can be installed. The following set of metering requirements for source and end-of-line requirements applies to the voltage control zone application. The locations of metering and measured quantities are as follows: 8.1.3.1 VCZ source metering Location: At VCZ source locations. Measurements: Average hourly kWi (total for three phases), average hourly kvari (total for three phases), average hourly temperature Tempi (Degrees F), and average hourly voltage VSource-i (V) for each phase. If data is collected for less than one hour, measurements must be converted to hourly values (average of collection periods). Meters are collecting data on the primary of the VCZ. Data can be collected from SCADA systems, protection relays, line recloser data storage, line regulators data storage, or multi-function meters. 8.1.3.2 VCZ lowest voltage location metering (typically at end-of-line) Location: At three lowest primary VCZ voltage locations. The locations must be configured on different segments of the VCZ (e.g., feeders and located on adjacent laterals) and not clustered together in the same location. Locations of the lowest voltage points are identified by the load flow assessment. If the VCZ incorporates automated voltage feedback control methods, the three meter locations must be located at the same place as the feedback voltage sensors. Measurements: Hourly average voltage VEOL1-i , VEOL2-i, VEOL3-i . If multiple phases exist at the meter location, the data collected is the average of the multiple phases. Meters are collecting data on the primary of the VCZ. Data can be collected from SCADA systems, protection relays, line recloser data storage, line regulators data storage, or multi-function meters. 8.2 ALTERNATE METHOD Need description here Revised 1-24-2012 7 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 9 Energy Savings Calculation Method (Estimate and Verification) 9.1 PRIMARY METHOD The primary method of verifying energy savings is to operate the system in such a way as to operate at different voltage levels on alternating days. The measurement and verification period would last three months (90 days) with previous annual hourly load shape used to correlate data that is corrected for temperature and/or other feeder or load characteristics, whichever drives load variance on the feeder. 9.1.1 SELECTION OF 90 DAY VERIFICATION PERIOD Select a 90 day period to measure operation data. The data measurements are collected for three months of CVR ‘on/off’ periods of one day for each. The time selected for the cut-over should be a minimum load (e.g. 2:00AM). The verification period does not need to be consecutive; however, each measurement segment must be at least 30 days in duration. A longer measurement period may be necessary to adequately capture all of the VCR operational and load characteristics. The selection of set of months (90 days) for the measurement period must include a variety of VCZ load magnitudes, hourly temperatures, and load operating characteristics. If large loads are operated only a few months out of the year (e.g. seasonal food processing plants), then the measurement period should capture these loads. If there are few customers (i.e., less than 200) and/or customers with widely different load characteristics (i.e. residential service and intermittent industrial loads), the period 30-day measurements should be separated in order to capture all of the load max and min patterns. In any case, the measurement period should be selected to capture the load shape mean magnitude. If the VCZ load shape has a diurnal shape (two peaks per year), the measurement months should be selected in such a way as to include both heavy loaded periods. If the load shape is influenced by ambient temperature, the measurement months should capture both warm and cool temperatures. Capture of extreme peak conditions is not necessary. For example, a period might be chosen for Feb through May will capture both cold and warm weather conditions, but not peak conditions, and relatively high and low load levels with differing HVAC applications. Provide justification for measurement periods selected. 9.1.2 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF SAVINGS 9.1.2.1 General Estimating Formulation Revised 1-24-2012 8 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 The preliminary estimate of VCZ annual energy savings is determined by using historical data, load flow simulations, and an estimated annual CVR factor selected by load type. The total annual estimated energy saved is EnergySavedANNUAL-Estimated , which is the product of three variables, annual average voltage change VANNUAL-Estimated , estimated CVR factor CVRFACTOR-Estimated , and historical annual energy TotalEnergyANNUAL. The preliminary estimate of annual energy saved is calculated using the following formulations. EnergySavedANNUAL-Estimated VANNUAL-Estimated CVRFACTOR-EstimatedTotalEnergyANNUAL Eq.1 9.1.2.2 Determine Total Energy ANNUAL TotalEnergyANNUAL is the historical annual energy (kWh) delivered at the VCZ source. Or, 8760 TotalEnergyANNUAL LoadShapekWi Eq.2 i 1 Or, TotalEnergyANNUAL kWPEAK 8760h LDFANNUAL Eq.3 9.1.2.3 Determine CVR FACTOR-Estimated For purposes of estimating the preliminary annual energy saved for the selected VCZ, an estimated CVR factor is selected from Table 1 “Annual CVR Factor Estimate”. The estimated factor is determined assuming historical VCZ known load characteristics. These CVR factors are derived from the Simplified VO Factor Tables and provide an approximate factor for use in estimating likely potential savings. If annual CVR factors similar to the VCZ load environment are known, they can be used instead of Table 1 data. Table 1 – Annual CVR Factor Estimate %Air Conditioning of Annual Load %Electric Space Heat of Annual Load <20% 20% - 40% 40% - 60% 60% - 80% >80% <20% 20% - 40% 0.800 0.675 0.825 0.700 0.850 0.725 0.875 0.750 0.900 0.775 40% - 60% 0.550 0.575 0.600 0.625 0.650 60% - 80% 0.425 0.450 0.475 0.500 0.525 Revised 1-24-2012 9 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 >80% 0.300 0.325 0.35 0.375 0.400 9.1.2.4 Determine ΔV ANNUAL-Estimate The term ΔVANNUAL-Estimate used in the above equation Eq.1 is the estimated annual per-unit change in * average VCZ primary voltage. The ΔV value is the difference between the average Pre-CVR VPre and the * * average Post-CVR voltage VPost divided by the Pre-CVR average voltage VPre . See Eq.4. These average * * voltages VPre and VPost are determined from load flow assessments for Pre-CVR conditions and Post-CVR * conditions. These V voltages are calculated assuming that all proposed VCZ improvements are installed (phase balancing, added phases, var improvements, reconductoring, regulator installations, * etc.) The V parameter is determined from existing or baseline and proposed Vrise, Vset, and Vdrop parameters. Vdrop is assumed to be uniformly distributed across the feeder system and proportional to the kWi loading. Vrise is also proportional to the kWi loading. Note: a modified formulation can be derived for ΔVANNUAL-Estimate if the voltage is not uniformly distributed across the feeder system by calculating ΔV for each section of the VCZ and taking a weighted average based on the division of kWPEAK load severed for each VCZ section. * * VPre VPost VANNUAL-Estimate * VPre Eq.4 Where, VdropPre ) 2 VdropPost LDFANNUAL (VrisePost ) 2 * VPre VsetPre LDFANNUAL (VrisePre Estimated Eq.5 * VPost VsetPost Estimated Eq.6 Vset LDF Vrise Vdrop = regulator source base voltage setting (V) = annual load factor (pu) = annual peak voltage rise at regulator source (V) = annual max voltage drop (V) from source to min end-of-line voltage 9.1.2.5 Preliminary Estimated Energy Savings As shown in Eq. 1, the preliminary estimated energy savings is given as: EnergySavedANNUAL-Estimated VANNUAL-Estimated CVRFACTOR-EstimatedTotalEnergyANNUAL 9.1.3 DETERMINATION OF VERIFIED SAVINGS Revised 1-24-2012 10 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 9.1.3.1 General Linear Regression Formulation Once VCZ measurement data is collected, cleaned up, and filtered for the three month period, a multivariable linear regression analysis is performed on the data. The approach is straightforward and can be accomplished using an Excel Application. The identified four independent variables to be used in the regression analysis are: Hourly_ kW, Hourly HDD_65i, Hourly CDD_65i, and Hourly Average Voltage_Vi. The coefficient β parameters are solved using a linear regression analysis of these variables. The relationship between β coefficients and measured variables is given by Eq.7. The results of the regression analysis will solve for the regression coefficients β0, β1, β2, and β3. Log Hourly_ kWi 0 1Hourly HDD_65i 2 Hourly CDD_65i 3 LogHourly Average Voltage_ Vi Eq.7 The independent variables used in the regression analysis are derived from the field measurements by the following: Table 2. Predictor Variable Definitions Regression Variable Field Measurement Variable Hourly_ kWi kWi Hourly HDD _65i IF (Tempi < 65OF, 65 - Tempi, 0) Hourly CDD _65i IF (Tempi > 65OF, - Tempi - 65, 0) Hourly Average Voltage _ Vi VSource i MIN VEOL1i , VEOL2 i , VEOL3 i 2 9.1.3.2 Verified annual CVR factor determination The verification measurements determine the verified annual CVR factor for use in determining the verified annual energy savings potential. The regression coefficient β3 is the CVR factor for the measurement period. It is representative of the annual CVR factor, if the measurement period is chosen to reasonably represent the entire annual load profile (8760 hours). The annual CVR Factor is then defined as the finite ratio given by the following equation for a predicted period of 8760 hours as: CVRFACTOR 3 Revised 1-24-2012 E V Eq.8 11 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 9.1.3.3 Verified annual change in average voltage ΔV determination The annual per-unit change in average voltage ΔV is calculated as the difference between annual average Pre-CVR and Post-CVR voltage conditions shown in Eq9. The annual average voltages are * * * * calculated as VPre in Eq10 and VPost in Eq11. The variables of VPre and VPost are determined from historical data and measured data. The overall annual per-unit change is given as: * * VPre VPost VANNUAL-Verified * VPre Eq.9 9.1.3.3.1 Calculation of average annual Pre-CVR voltage 9.1.3.3.1.1 Determine Pre-CVR (Baseline) parameters C, D, E, F for a VCZ CPRE = Source regulated Pre-CVR set voltage point Vset Pre D = Maximum annual 3φ peak hourly demand kWPEAK E = Total annual energy delivered TotalEnergyANNUAL F = Annual Load Factor LDFANNUAL 9.1.3.3.1.2 Determine Pre-CVR “A” &” B” for measurement period (Pre-CVR measurements are shown as variables identified as Pre-i ) APRE = Maximum Annual Voltage Drop in Volts at peak load =[AVERAGE VSource Pr e i MIN VEOL1 Pr e i , VEOL2 Pr e i , VEOL3 Pr e i [ BPRE D ] AVERAGE(kWPr e i ) = Regulator Maximum Annual Volt Rise in Volts at peak load =[AVERAGE VSource Pr ei CPr e [ D ] AVERAGE(kWPr ei ) Compare the actual results of A and B with VdropPre and VrisePre with estimated values obtained from load flow results. If significantly different, review system assumptions. 9.1.3.3.1.3 The Pre-CVR average annual primary voltage Revised 1-24-2012 12 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 * VPre A CPRE F BPRE PRE 2 Eq.10 9.1.3.3.2 Calculation of average annual Post-CVR voltage 9.1.3.3.2.1 Determine Post-CVR parameters C, D, E, F for a VCZ CPOST = Source regulated Post-CVR set voltage point VSET-Post D = Maximum annual 3φ peak hourly demand kWPEAK E = Total annual energy delivered TotalEnergyANNUAL F = Annual Load Factor LDFANNUAL 9.1.3.3.2.2 Determine Post-VO “A” &” B” for measurement period (Post-CVR measurements are shown as variables identified as Post-i ) APOST = Maximum Annual Voltage Drop in Volts at peak load =[AVERAGE VSource Post i MIN VEOL1 Post i , VEOL2 P ost i , VEOL3 Posti [ BPOST D ] AVERAGE(kWPost i ) = Regulator Maximum Annual Volt Rise in Volts at peak load =[AVERAGEVSourcePost i CPost [ D ] AVERAGE(kWPost i ) Compare the actual results of A and B with Vdrop Post and VrisePost with estimated values obtained from Load flow results. If significantly different, review system assumptions. 9.1.3.3.2.3 VCZ-Post average annual primary voltage A * VPost CPOST F BPOST POST 2 Revised 1-24-2012 Eq.11 13 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 9.1.3.4 Verified annual energy savings The verified annual energy savings EnergySavedANNUAL as a result of improved voltage regulation is given by: EnergySavedANNUAL VANNUAL-VerifiedCVRFACTOR-VerifiedTotalEnergyANNUAL 9.1.4 Eq.12 COMMISSIONING PERFORMANCE VERIFICATION The data collection of the Post-CVR system is used to test and verify that the system is in compliance with applicable standards and performance guidelines required to ensure that the new and improved voltage control system is functioning properly. All performance guidelines must be met. 9.2 ALTERNATIVE METHOD An alternative method is to conduct the measurement and verification without historical baseline data. Need overview description here 9.2.1 SELECTION OF VERIFICATION PERIOD Need description here 9.2.2 PRELIMINARY ESTIMATE OF SAVINGS Need description here – [Wyatt Pierce proposes modeling to be allowed] 9.2.3 DETERMINATION OF VERIFIED SAVINGS Need description here The program savings are estimated by using the following definition: Esaved = Eused [(CVRf*Vr%/(1-CVRf*Vr%)] In which: Esaved = Energy Conserved for period in kWh, MWh or GWh Eused = Measured Energy used for period in kWh, MWh or GWhCVRf = Period conservation voltage reduction factor as computed using time series analysis and robust statistical methods with temperature compensation for specific seasons. CVRf will be different for weekday and weekend. (See estimation method below.) Vr = Average period end of line voltage reduction Revised 1-24-2012 14 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 Vr% = Average period end of line voltage reduction in percent (need system shape to determine percent) (calculate the end of line voltage against a 120 volt base) Voc = measured average end of line voltage with automated CVR non operational Vcvr = measured average end of line voltage with automated CVR operational Vr = Voc – Vcvr Vr% = Vr/Voc * 100 9.2.3.1 CVRf Estimation (applies to the performance evaluation period) Integrated demand profiles, one each for the automated CVR system active and inactive, are estimated on a common ambient temperature basis using the method (“Estimation of Automated CVR System Performance Using Observed Energy Demand Load Profiles”); the 24-hour sum of the difference between these profiles is the estimated conserved energy for the evaluation. The mean difference of the end of circuit voltages for the automated CVR system active and inactive is estimated. The CVRf is then determined from the ratio of these two quantities, and can be expressed on an absolute or per unit basis (the per unit basis is recommended). Recognizing (1) the stochastic nature of the energy observations as discussed in the UtiliData CVR Estimation Method, (2) the requirement to evaluate the performance of candidate automated CVR systems using the smallest (least duration) set of energy observations, and (3) that the probability densities of the relevant observations clearly exhibit non-homogeneous variance and are also clearly not Gaussian processes, the required estimations should be carried out using robust statistical procedures. Specifically, the Minimum Covariance Determinant estimators should be applied, because (1) their breakdown point is high and (2) they do not require that the observations exhibit a symmetrical probability density. 9.2.3.2 Automated CVR Performance Forecasting The CVR Estimation Method referenced above, estimates CVR using the observations of the automated CVR system inactive state as a reference. In principle, forecasting for a given circuit then simply requires a base demand profile, a projected end of circuit voltage reduction, and the estimation results from the evaluation period. 10 RTF Calculator Model 10.1 PRIMARY METHOD Historical data, meter data parameter identifications, Pre-CVR (Baseline) and Post-CVR load flow parameters and field measurements are inputted to the Regional Technical Forum (RTF) calculator Revised 1-24-2012 15 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 model. The calculator performs the necessary VCZ system performance assessments, regression analysis, and reporting. The Calculator Model calculates the preliminary estimated energy savings and verified energy savings along with the VCZ annual CVR factor and average annual voltage change. The RTF regression model includes compensation for temperature. There are a number of additional factors that affect energy use and could be added to the model. Addition of these factors may tend to improve the predictive accuracy and reduce “outlier” data points. Factors that may be considered for inclusion in the model in the future will include daylight and dark hours, solar intensity, day of week, humidity, etc. Adding any or all of these to the model regression formulation shown in Eq 7, should not change the basic measurement and verification protocol to determine the CVR factor, average change in voltage and annual energy saved. 10.1.1 CALCULATOR SPECIFICATIONS SUMMARY FOR EACH VOLTAGE CONTROL ZONE Description of existing system, VCZ configuration, customer load types, customer class mix, and existing voltage operations Description of Pre-CVR (Baseline) including proposed modifications Description of proposed Post-CVR system included proposed improvements VCZ primary voltage class in kVLL Voltage Base for metered data (i.e. 120V) VCZ Previous Annual historical annual energy delivered kWh VCZ annual energy load characteristics o % of VCZ load that is electric heat kWh o % of VCZ load that is AC load kWh VCZ voltage control settings (Existing) o Set point voltage (V) o CT rating o PT ratio o LDC settings %R and %X o Regulation bandwidth in Volts o Minimum allowed primary Volts o Maximum allowed primary Volts Load flow simulation results o Vrise for Pre-CVR (Baseline) conditions (Volts) o Vset for Pre-CVR (Baseline) conditions (Volts) o Vdrop for Pre-CVR (Baseline) conditions (Volts) o Vrise for Post-CVR (Baseline) conditions (Volts) o Vset for Post-CVR (Baseline) conditions (Volts) Revised 1-24-2012 16 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 o Vdrop for Post-CVR (Baseline) conditions (Volts) VCZ voltage control settings Pre-CVR (Baseline) o Set point voltage (V) o CT rating o PT ratio o LDC settings %R and %X o Regulation bandwidth in Volts VCZ voltage control settings proposed Post-CVR o Set point voltage (V) o CT rating o PT ratio o LDC settings %R and %X o Regulation bandwidth in Volts Previous Annual historical hourly data o Estimated or metered kW and kvar 8,760 hour load shapes at the VCZ source o Estimated or metered peak kW and kvar load for the VCZ Previous phase Amps at peak load for each feeder if applicable Input average hourly M&V reads for 90 days for Pre-CVR (Baseline) and Post-CVR o KiloWatts and KiloVars at VCZ source (marked CVR on CVR Off) o Temperature in degree F at VCZ source (marked CVR on CVR Off) o Volts at the VCZ source (marked as CVR on CVR Off) o Volts at three lowest voltage sites on VCZ primary laterals (marked as CVR on CVR Off) o Phase Amps at peak load for each feeder if applicable 10.1.2 CALCULATION (SUMMARY) All calculations are described for the Primary Method by the CVR Standard M&V Protocol #1. The order of calculations is as follows: Adjust 8,760 data using the estimated or metered peak kW to create a representative predictive annual load shape Using the historical data and load flow simulation results, calculate the estimated change in voltage, select an estimated CVR factor, and estimate annual change in energy (energy savings) With hourly voltage data from M&V measurements, determine the B coefficients Pre-CVR (Baseline) and Post-CVR “on” and “off” data. Determine the annual CVR factor from B3 Calculate the average change in primary voltage for the 90 days Calculate the average annual change in primary voltage for the 90 days Calculate the annual average change in energy saved Revised 1-24-2012 17 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 Verify system compliance with minimum performance guidelines Determine annual persistence VCZ parameters for ongoing comparison o Source max min, and average kW and kvar o Max, min, and average source voltage o Max, min, and average end-of-line voltage o Annual total energy kWh delivered o Estimate of annual average primary voltage. 10.2 ALTERNATIVE METHOD Need more description here 11 Control Group: No control group is required because with on-off and variable voltage set point capability, the application group can act as its own control group or baseline during testing periods. 12 Relationship to Other Protocols and Guidelines The Protocol follows Option D as described in “Measurement & Verification for Federal Energy Projects”, Version 2.2, and “International Performance Measurement & Verification Protocol (IPMVP)”, Volume I, March 2002. Option D is utilized because the CVR Standard M&V Protocol is applied to a single whole facility (substation, feeder, industrial plant) with many subparts requiring a totalized comprehensive approach where the energy savings will be less than 10 percent. Option D allows for a minimum of metered data points, and includes some simulation modeling, calculations, and historical data estimates to determine energy saved for the chosen facility or system. International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol, Concepts and Options for Determining Energy and Water Saving, Volume 1, Revised March 2002. DOE/GO-102002-1554. This protocol is consistent with Options C - and D of that document. M&V Guidelines: Measurement and Verification for Federal Energy Projects Version 3.0, U.S. Department of Energy Federal Energy Management Program. This protocol is consistent with Option C. RTF Simplified VO M & V Protocol 13 Recommended Models and Tools: 13.1 Primary Method Models and Tools Revised 1-24-2012 18 CVR STANDARD M&V PROTOCOL #1 Using historical data, Load Flow models are used to simulate the Pre-CVR (Baseline) and Post-CVR conditions in the primary method. Example software used in utility feeder load flow simulation models include Cyne, SynerGEE, MilSoft, E-Tap and FeederALL). Microsoft Excel can be used for data handling, load flow input data prepressing, system analysis, meter error checking and data cleanup. Savings estimate and verified calculations for the primary protocol method are done using the Regional Technical Forum calculator approved for this protocol. 13.2 Alternative Method Models and Tools UtiliData® Automated CVR Estimation Method Tools MatLab® (©1994-2003 by the MathWorks, Inc.) tools are available from PCS UtiliData to use with this protocol. Need more description here 14 References: a. ANSI C84.1 Voltage Standard Guidelines b. IEEE 141-1986 Standard “Recommended Practice for Electric Power Distribution for Industrial Plants” c. Rousseeuw, P J, Leroy AM, ‘Robust Regression and Outlier Detection’, Wiley 1987. d. Rousseeuw, P J, 'Introduction to Positive Breakdown Methods', in Handbook of Statistics, Volume 15: Robust Inference, editors G S Maddala and C R Rao, Elsevier 1997. e. “Estimation of Automated CVR System Performance using Observed Energy Demand Profiles”, David Bell, March 15, 2004. (available at http://www.pcsutilidata.com/userfiles/file/CVR_Performance_Estimation_2004.pdf) f. Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance, DEI Study, December 2007 g. Revised 1-24-2012 19