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“Baltic Challenges and Chances for local and regional development generated by Climate Change” Socio-economic Stressor Mapping – Panevezys region – February 26, 2010 Author: Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics 1. Description of research method Mapping of socio-economic stressors were performed at the Lithuanian Institute of Agrarian Economics. The aim of this exercise was to select the most critical socio-economic stressors and opportunities in Panevezys region for agriculture sector. Questionnaire research method was used for mapping these socio-economic stressors. This questionnaire contained a list of economic, social, demographic and technological factors. These factors were assessed in what direction they will evolve in the next 30 to 50 years. The factors have been divided into two major categories: potential stressors and potential opportunities. The stressors were social problems and the opportunities were social chances. This type of research method was chosen because perceptions, opinions, beliefs and attitudes of experts can be gathered towards analyzed subject. 2. Analysis of climatic stressors in Panevezys region. Very influential socio-economic factors for vulnerability in Panevezys region are provided in Table 1. The most important socio-economic factors for vulnerability in Panevezys region were selected. The most influential socio-economic factors for vulnerability in Panevezys region are increased competition from abroad (6,3 point), ageing of population in Panevezys region (6,3 point), migration within Europe (6,3 point), risk of long-lasting economic recession (5,6 point), increased income disparity (5,6 point), climate-exposed buildings and infrastructure (4,6 point), risk of deficient water and sewage system (4,3 point). According to opinion of respondents, the influence of these factors will increase in the future. Table 1. Assessment of socio-economic factors in Panevezys region. This socio-economic factor is very influential for vulnerability in Panevezys region Increasing competition from abroad. Ageing of population in the TA New consumer demands Migration within Europe Risk of long-lasting economic recession Increasing income disparity Value (from 1 to 7)* 6,3 6,3 6,3 5,6 5,6 5,6 Changes in the future (-, 0, +)** + + + + + + 2 Climate-exposed buildings and infrastructure Risk of deficient water and sewage system 4,6 4,3 + + Unclear division of responsibility for meeting crisis and weather extremes Increasing materialism. Population decrease in the TA. Increasing crime Larger differences between Baltic Sea regions Risk of deficient road and railroad system Insufficient energy supply Risk of deficient telecommunications Risk of deficient public transportation Unemployment International Political Insecurity (terrorism) Migration due to climate change Lack of public trust in social institutions Social marginalisation 4 0 3 3 2,6 2,6 2,3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1,6 1,6 + + + 0 0 0 0 + 0 0 + 0 Notes: *: 1 point means the highest disagreement, 7 – the highest agreement. **: “-“ means that importance of this factor is decreasing (or would decrease), “0” – situation remains unchanged (would remain unchanged), “+” means that importance of this factor is increasing (or would increase). Potentially very positively affecting socio-economic factors in Panevezys region are provided in Table 2. The most important socio-economic factors very positively affecting social and economic activity in Panevezys region were selected. The most influential socio-economic factors very positively affecting social and economic activity in Panevezys region are private investment in environmentally friendly technology (6,6 points), public regulations to encourage environmentally friendly technology (6,6 points), environmental awareness (6,3 points), more international trade (6,3 point), public spending and research and development (6,0 point). According to opinion of respondents, the influence of these factors will increase in the future. Table 2. Assessment of potentially very positively affecting socio-economic factors in Panevezys region. This socio-economic factor is potentially very positively affecting social and economic activity in Parenezys region Value (from 1 to 7)* Changes in the future (-, 0, +)** 3 Private investment in environmentally friendly technology. 6,6 + Public regulations to encourage environmentally friendly technology 6,6 + Environmental awareness. More international trade. Public spending on research & development New alternative agricultural technologies Economic growth. Public expenditure on infrastructure. Its attractiveness for investment. Investment in social infrastructure. 6,3 6,3 6,0 6,0 5,3 5,0 4,6 4,6 3,6 3 2,3 + + + + + + 0 + + + 0 Business development Climate change high on the global agenda. Investment in buildings. Notes: *: 1 point means the highest disagreement, 7 – the highest agreement. **: “-“ means that importance of this factor is decreasing (or would decrease), “0” – situation remains unchanged (would remain unchanged), “+” means that importance of this factor is increasing (or would increase). 3. Conclusions The results of the Exercise III shows that socio-economic stressors and chances in Panevėžys region’s agricultural sector are very close connected with the climatic and other environmental stressors and chances. The main stressors and chances for Lithuanian TA according the average evaluation of the exercise participants deals with 3 issues: 1. Green movement (Private investment in environmentally friendly technology -6,6; Private investment in environmentally friendly technology -6,6; Environmental awareness – 6,3; New consumer demands -6,3); 2. International trade influence (More international trade – 6,3; Increasing competition from abroad – 6,3); 3. Knowledge economy influence (New alternative agricultural technologies – 6,0; Public spending on research & development -6,0;). Ageing of population in the TA, evaluated by 6,3 points, and more than half of farmers in age group of 60 and more years, require to find ways to train all age groups by specific tools. 4