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Smarter © Crown copyright Met Office The past is not a reliable indicator for the future © Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change – An Overview © Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change Observations © Crown copyright Met Office Sources of observation © Crown copyright Met Office Recent evidence: Central England Temperature Warming in Central England Temperature in the last 50 years is very likely due to human activities 2006 - warmest year on record (CET - continuous record back to 1659) © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Global average temperature © Crown copyright Met Office Arctic sea-ice extent: decrease since mid-1970s © Crown copyright Met Office CO2 Concentrations © Crown copyright Met Office Climate Change – Impacts © Crown copyright Met Office The greenhouse effect © Crown copyright Met Office Climate System © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Our Supercomputer • Trillion (million million) calculations every second. • Allows bigger and better models – e.g. Climate Change modelling. • Better models = Improved forecasts • New supercomputer 2009. © Crown copyright Met Office Improved accuracy Our forecasts are as accurate three days ahead as they were one day ahead 20 years ago. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate models continue to be improved © Crown copyright Met Office Model Temporal Resolution Now Climate 1 hours Decadal 6 hour Seasonal 1 day Monthly 6 days © Crown copyright Met Office 3 days Adaptation © Crown copyright Met Office The future winter summer UK temperature change winter summer UK precipitation change % Preliminary scenarios prepared for UKCP09 © Crown copyright Met Office UK impacts Heatwaves © Crown copyright Met Office UK impacts Summer rainfall • Summer rainfall decreasing • Water restrictions • Wildfire risk • Summer storms becoming more intense • Localised but severe flash flooding • Tornadoes? © Crown copyright Met Office UK impacts Winter rainfall • Winter rainfall increasing • Greater flood risk • Near misses become hits • Winter snowfall decreasing • Cold snaps still likely • Less prepared when it happens? © Crown copyright Met Office UK climate change +2 °C 2040? London summer temperature increases by 3.5 °C, hottest day 5 °C © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C European 2003 summer temperatures: normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s © Crown copyright Met Office observations HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2) 2003 2060s 2040s UK impacts Heatwaves: Summer 2003 1,800 40 1,700 35 1,600 30 C o 1,400 25 1,300 20 1,200 1,100 1,000 15 Average daily deaths 1998-2002 ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003 Maximum temperature (London) 10 900 800 01-Jul © Crown copyright Met Office 5 08-Jul 15-Jul 22-Jul 29-Jul 05-Aug 12-Aug 19-Aug 26-Aug temperature no. of deaths 1,500 UK extreme rainfall • More rain in winter • More extreme events • Unusual storminess, very warm sea surface temperature © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Coastal Flooding Sea level rise gradual increase • Thermal expansion • Greenland ice-sheet melting (becomes irreversible at 2°C) • Storm surges o 1953 floods, 300 drowned, 24,000 houses damaged © Crown copyright Met Office Adaptation Case Studies © Crown copyright Met Office Case study: Anglian Water “What does climate change mean for flood risk in the Anglian Water region?” © Environment Agency © Crown copyright Met Office Winter rainfall extremes? Specifically: • How is extreme rainfall predicted to change? • What will a future rainfall event with a 20-year return period, resemble in today’s climate? Answer: Extreme rainfall events will be more frequent. © Crown copyright Met Office Adaptation considerations • How sensitive is the activity to the change? • What is the expected change? • How certain are the projections? • What are the impacts – direct and indirect? • Implementation timescales? • Costs and benefits of adaptation? These consideration may need contributory expertise from a number of disciplines. © Crown copyright Met Office Climate change impacts Bangladesh 1970 Cyclone Bhola: 500,000 people killed © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Climate change impacts Bangladesh 2007 Cyclone Sidr: 3,300 people killed © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office How do you eat an elephant? How do we adapt to CC? © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office Working together © Crown copyright Met Office © Crown copyright Met Office The past is not a reliable indicator for the future © Crown copyright Met Office Questions and Answers © Crown copyright Met Office