Download CET - continuous record back to 1659

Smarter
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The past is not a reliable
indicator for the future
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Climate Change – An Overview
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Climate Change
Observations
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Sources of observation
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Recent evidence:
Central England Temperature
Warming in Central England Temperature in the last
50 years is very likely due to human activities
2006 - warmest year on record
(CET - continuous record back to 1659)
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Global average temperature
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Arctic sea-ice extent: decrease
since mid-1970s
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CO2 Concentrations
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Climate Change – Impacts
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The greenhouse effect
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Climate System
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Our Supercomputer
• Trillion (million million)
calculations every second.
• Allows bigger and better
models – e.g. Climate
Change modelling.
• Better models = Improved
forecasts
• New supercomputer 2009.
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Improved accuracy
Our forecasts are as accurate three days ahead
as they were one day ahead 20 years ago.
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Climate models continue to be
improved
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Model Temporal Resolution
Now
Climate
1 hours
Decadal
6 hour
Seasonal
1 day
Monthly
6 days
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3 days
Adaptation
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The future
winter
summer
UK temperature
change
winter
summer
UK precipitation
change
%
Preliminary scenarios prepared for UKCP09
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UK impacts
Heatwaves
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UK impacts
Summer rainfall
• Summer rainfall decreasing
• Water restrictions
• Wildfire risk
• Summer storms becoming
more intense
• Localised but severe flash flooding
• Tornadoes?
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UK impacts
Winter rainfall
• Winter rainfall increasing
• Greater flood risk
• Near misses become hits
• Winter snowfall decreasing
• Cold snaps still likely
• Less prepared when it happens?
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UK climate change
+2 °C 2040?
London summer temperature increases by 3.5 °C,
hottest day 5 °C
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Temperature anomaly (wrt 1961-90) °C
European 2003 summer temperatures:
normal by 2040s, cool by 2060s
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observations
HadCM3 Medium-High (SRES A2)
2003
2060s
2040s
UK impacts
Heatwaves: Summer 2003
1,800
40
1,700
35
1,600
30
C
o
1,400
25
1,300
20
1,200
1,100
1,000
15
Average daily deaths 1998-2002
ONS Estimated daily deaths 2003
Maximum temperature (London)
10
900
800
01-Jul
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5
08-Jul
15-Jul
22-Jul
29-Jul
05-Aug
12-Aug
19-Aug
26-Aug
temperature
no. of deaths
1,500
UK extreme rainfall
• More rain in winter
• More extreme events
• Unusual storminess, very warm sea surface
temperature
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Coastal Flooding
Sea level rise gradual increase
• Thermal expansion
• Greenland ice-sheet melting (becomes irreversible at 2°C)
• Storm surges
o 1953 floods, 300 drowned, 24,000 houses damaged
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Adaptation Case Studies
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Case study: Anglian Water
“What does climate change mean for flood risk in
the Anglian Water region?”
© Environment Agency
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Winter rainfall extremes?
Specifically:
• How is extreme rainfall predicted to change?
• What will a future rainfall event with a 20-year
return period, resemble in today’s climate?
Answer:
Extreme rainfall events will be more frequent.
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Adaptation considerations
• How sensitive is the activity to the change?
• What is the expected change?
• How certain are the projections?
• What are the impacts – direct and indirect?
• Implementation timescales?
• Costs and benefits of adaptation?
These consideration may need contributory
expertise from a number of disciplines.
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Climate change impacts
Bangladesh
1970 Cyclone Bhola: 500,000 people killed
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Climate change impacts
Bangladesh
2007 Cyclone Sidr: 3,300 people killed
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How do you eat an elephant?
How do we adapt to CC?
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Working together
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The past is not a reliable
indicator for the future
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Questions and Answers
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