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Ocean Climate Indicators Status Report: 2015 Report to collaborators at Cordell Bank and Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuaries June 2016 Meredith Elliott and Jaime Jahncke Ocean Climate Indicators Status Report: 2015 June 2016 Point Blue Conservation Science Meredith Elliott and Jaime Jahncke Acknowledgements We would like to thank our partners at Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary (Dan Howard and Danielle Lipski), Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (Maria Brown and Jan Roletto), and Bill Douros with the West Coast Region, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries. We also acknowledge U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service and the Farallon National Wildlife Refuge (Anne Morkill and Gerry McChesney) for partnering with Point Blue to monitor wildlife on the Farallon Islands, California Department of Public Health (Gregg Langlois) for contributing phytoplankton data, the Institute of Ocean Sciences (Moira Galbraith) for helping process zooplankton samples collected during ACCESS cruises, and Ben Saenz for helping process the acoustics data. The Romberg Tiburon Center for Environmental Studies (with Ryan Hartnett, under the guidance of Frances Wilkerson) provided nutrient analyses, and the U.C. Davis Bodega Marine Laboratory (with Catherine Davis, under the direction of Tessa Hill) conduct ocean acidification monitoring; we are grateful to these academic institutions and staff for these new avenues of research. Thanks to the crew of the NOAA research vessel Fulmar. Funders of the ACCESS Partnership include Elinor Patterson Baker Trust Fund, Bently Foundation, Bonnell Cove Foundation, Boring Family Foundation, California Sea Grant, California Dept. of Fish and Wildlife, Cordell Marine Sanctuary Foundation, DJ&T Foundation, Farallones Sanctuary Association, Faucett Catalyst Foundation, Firedoll Foundation, Hellman Family Foundation, McCaw Family Foundation, Giles W. & Elise G. Mead Foundation, Moore Family Foundation, National Fish and Wildlife Foundation, Oikonos Ecosystem Knowledge, Pacific Life Foundation, Resources Legacy Fund Foundation, Restoration Center (NOAA), Richard Grand Foundation, Office of National Marine Sanctuaries, Thelma Doelger Trust, the Volgenau Foundation, and Point Blue Anonymous Donors. Results in this report would not be possible without Point Blue staff, interns and volunteers. The Southeast Farallon sea surface temperature and sea surface salinity data are provided by the Shore Stations Program with funding provided by the California Parks and Recreation, Department of Boating and Waterways, award # CA DPR-C1370020; these data are collected by research personnel with Point Blue Conservation Science. Suggested Citation, and website link Elliott, M. L. and J. Jahncke. 2016. Ocean Climate Indicators Status Report: 2015. Unpublished Report. Point Blue Conservation Science, Petaluma, California. http://accessoceans.org/uploads/Ocean_Climate_Indicators_Report_2015.pdf For further information contact the director of the California Current Group at [email protected] or Point Blue Conservation Science, 3820 Cypress Drive #11, Petaluma, CA, 94954. Point Blue Conservation Science – Point Blue’s 140 staff and seasonal scientists conserve birds, other wildlife and their ecosystems through scientific research and outreach. At the core of our work is ecosystem science, studying birds and other indicators of nature’s health. Visit Point Blue on the web www.pointblue.org. Executive Summary Physical ocean climate indicators illustrated anomalously warm water conditions for 2015. Different sources of sea surface temperature were unanimously high for the year, showing a brief period (April-May) of cold surface waters. Sea surface salinity values were normal, nutrient concentrations were low, and sea surface heights were anomalously high the entire year, suggesting downwelling conditions and resulting in lower than average productivity. Alongshore winds were relatively weak in the early months of the year. Upwelling indices were mixed depending on the source, showing relatively normal upwelling (on a regional scale) and downwelling (on a local scale). Spring transition date was average. All basin-wide climate indices also showed warm water conditions. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) showed neutral to warm conditions in the early months (January-April) followed by warm waters for the rest of the year. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) index indicated anomalously warm water conditions for the North Pacific Ocean, while the North Pacific Gyre Oscillation showed warm, less productive waters through the year. We show new results on aragonite saturation and hypoxia for years 2010-15. Aragonite saturation state was low (i.e. indicating acidic, corrosive conditions for calcifying organisms) for most depths and years, and low oxygen waters were noted in deeper waters (below 120 m) for most years. Biological ocean climate indicators echo results from the physical indicators. Starting at the base of the marine food web, phytoplankton abundance (as indicated by chlorophyll a concentrations) showed non-consecutive peaks in the first half of the year, followed by low phytoplankton densities for the latter half of the year. While we do not have 2015 phytoplankton community results for 2015 yet, 2014 samples (another warm-water year) consisted mostly of diatoms; this result is confounding, as this normally indicates productive ocean conditions. Zooplankton community composition results are not yet available for 2013-15; we show results from 2004-2012. Results from 2011 reflect productive ocean conditions on most zooplankton taxa, with increased abundances of most groups compared to warm, poor productivity years (e.g. 2004-06), particularly for euphausiids and copepods. However, preliminary results from 2012 show a decline in the abundances of common zooplankton groups. Intra-annual results generally show increasing zooplankton abundance in spring, peak abundance in June, and a decline in fall. Analyses of zooplankton samples show two main clusters of abundance levels: the first three years (2004-06, warm water years), and the next six years (2007-12, cold water years). We examined copepods, pteropods, and euphausiids in more detail, as these are important low- to mid-trophic level species in the ecosystem. Copepod species composition results to date indicate large increases in the abundance of boreal copepods (i.e., species from northern latitudes which are generally considered better prey based on their larger size and greater lipid content) during cold, productive ocean conditions. Copepod species common to mid-latitudes also became more abundant in cold water years, although not as dramatically. Equatorial copepods (i.e., copepods from southern latitudes which are smaller and have less lipid content) increased in abundance in the September cruises some years. However, declines in all copepods are evident in preliminary results for 2012. Within year results for the copepod groups generally showed peak abundances of boreal copepods in June, while the other copepod groups showed highest abundances in the fall. Pteropod abundance has remained relatively low throughout our time series, with significant increases in 2011-12. Euphausiid biomass (as measured by acoustics) appears to peak in late summer (July) in most years. Adult euphausiids, which are larger and higher in lipid content than their younger counterparts, dominate the zooplankton samples during cold water years; however, warm water conditions shows a decline in the percentage of adult stages. Additionally, adult euphausiids are larger in cold water years (e.g. 2007-13) and smaller in warm water years (e.g. 2014-15). The top-level predators in our region are represented by three resident breeding seabirds and two migrant whales. Cassin’s auklet, a zooplanktivorous seabird, was observed foraging close to SEFI in 2015; the average egg laying date was slightly later for this species, and it experienced average productivity. An omnivorous seabird species, the common murre, foraged across the shelf and in nearshore waters in 2015, started breeding a little late, experienced near-average breeding success, and consumed rockfish and anchovy/sardine. Brandt’s cormorants are piscivorous and were observed in low numbers near SEFI and in nearshore waters in 2015. This species had a slightly later start to breeding, experienced near-average productivity (contrary to recent years of low breeding success), and consumed mostly rockfish and sculpin species in 2015. For marine mammals in 2015, humpback whales were observed in higher numbers in the June and July cruises; they were spotted between SEFI and Cordell Bank in June, then north of Cordell Bank in July. Blue whales were observed near SEFI in June 2015, then near the shelf break north of Cordell Bank in July. September counts for these two species were lower yet consistent with recent annual trends. Despite the record high densities of blue whales in the region, euphausiid densities were very low. Introduction The Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies (ACCESS) is a partnership between a nonprofit science organization, Point Blue, and a Federal agency, NOAA, to inform management in support of marine wildlife conservation in central California, including Cordell Bank National Marine Sanctuary (CBNMS), Greater Farallones National Marine Sanctuary (GFNMS), and the northern portion of Monterey Bay National Marine Sanctuary (MBNMS; Figure 1). We conduct coordinated private and government research at an ecosystem scale to support management of a healthy marine ecosystem in the region. This includes integrated, collaborative, and multidisciplinary research to monitor distribution, abundance and demography of marine wildlife in the context of underlying physical oceanographic processes. Data collected by ACCESS is used to inform effective management and conservation of resources in national marine sanctuaries. Some of the main potential issues we aim to address include 1) Wildlife Conservation (improve conservation of marine wildlife and their food webs), 2) Ocean Zoning (guide human uses to provide protection of the marine ecosystem), 3) Climate Change (document effects on the ecosystem and inform climate-smart conservation), 4) Ocean Acidification (document changes in water properties and assess biological responses), and 5) Ecosystem Indicators (use long-term data to inform ecosystem-based management approaches). ACCESS is a long-term monitoring project with proven applicability to urgent management concerns and at the same time has been adaptable to emerging issues and changes in jurisdictions. In June 2015, NOAA expanded the boundaries of CBNMS and GFNMS, which more than doubled the size of both sanctuaries by extending boundaries north to Manchester Beach in Sonoma County (for GFNMS) and west to include important subsea features such as the deep depths of the continental slope (for CBNMS). In 2014, four survey lines were added to the proposed expansion area, now part of the sanctuaries, to collect baseline information in the northern areas, and these lines continued as part of the ACCESS sampling grid in 2015. The purpose of this report is to inform managers and policy-makers about wildlife responses to changes in ocean conditions and to make this information available to other researchers and the public. We present data collected during the ACCESS at-sea surveys which have been conducted 3-4 times a year since 2004. These data include phytoplankton composition, zooplankton composition, euphausiid abundance from hydroacoustics, and at-sea observations of seabirds and marine mammals. We have also compiled a variety of datasets to look at longterm trends; these include climate and upwelling indices, sea surface temperature and salinity measured from the Farallon Islands, buoy data (winds, sea surface temperature), satellite data (sea surface temperature and height, and phytoplankton abundance), and seabird data (productivity and timing of breeding) on Southeast Farallon Island. While some datasets have been updated through this year, not all 2015 data are available. We have shown here what we could obtain at the time we released this report, up to and including the 2015 field season for some metrics. This reporting effort builds off the report Ocean Climate Indicators: A Monitoring Inventory and Plan for Tracking Climate Change in the North-central California Coast and Ocean Region (Duncan et al 2013) (http://farallones.noaa.gov/manage/climate/pdf/GFNMS-IndicatorsMonitoring-Plan-FINAL.pdf), which was used to help prioritize indicators for monitoring and to include in this report. Other indicators (e.g., basin-scale climate indices, sizes of euphausiids, at-sea distributions of seabirds and marine mammals) that were readily available and provide a more comprehensive picture of regional ocean conditions were also included. The information we collect is available upon request and will be available to collaborators as part of the California Avian Data Center (http://data.prbo.org/cadc). The report is available at accessoceans.org and sanctuarysimon.org. Figure 1. Applied California Current Ecosystem Studies (ACCESS) study area. Sea surface temperature Overview Sea surface temperature (SST) is an indicator of the productivity of the ecosystem, as cold, nutrient rich water is brought to the surface during upwelling in early spring, which influences productivity. The surface waters eventually warm up during relaxation events that follow upwelling, typically in late summer or early fall. We used buoy and Southeast Farallon Island data for local observations, and satellite data (covering a 4 km2 area) were used for a more regional perspective on SST. Each of these datasets shows an intra-annual pattern in SST: a decline during upwelling (March-May), then increasing SSTs through September (which is the peak SST for the year), followed by another decline. Buoy data SSTs in 2015 were anomalously warm (i.e. large positive red bars) for most of the years (Figure 2). SSTs were close to average values in the early months of 2004. In 2005 and 2006, anomalously warm SSTs were observed in the winter and spring months. In contrast, low SSTs (i.e. negative blue bars) were noted in most months of years 2007-13; short periods of average or warm waters (e.g. late months of 2008, early months of 2010) suggest local downwelling/relaxation events. The recent warm water event began in mid-2014 and remained high through 2015. Southeast Farallon Island data SST data collected near Southeast Farallon Island (SEFI) shows warm (i.e., positive red bars) temperatures observed throughout most of 2015 (Figure 3). Short upwelling events defined by cold waters (i.e. negative blue bars) were observed in 2004, but most values were closer to the long-term averages. Warm SSTs were observed throughout 2005-06 and 2014-15. Conversely, cold SSTs were observed throughout the early months of 2007-09, late 2010, and 2012-13. Cold temperatures appeared late (April and May) in 2010. SSTs in 2011 were normal to warm for most of the year. Satellite data Satellite results shows warm (i.e., positive red bars) SSTs during most of 2014-15 (Figure 4). Temperatures in 2004 through mid-2005 were consistently warm; this differs from the buoy and SEFI data, as these other data show periods of cold (i.e., negative blue bars), upwelled water at the surface. Similar to buoy and SEFI results, 2006 had warmer SSTs in the first half of 2006, and cold SSTs in the first half of years 2007-09. Warm waters in the early months and cold waters in the later months of 2010 are also consistent with other SST results. SSTs in 2011 were average, while 2012 and 2013 showed mostly cooler SSTs. Data source: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=46013, with additional data from: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=46026, http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=46012, http://bml.ucdavis.edu/boon/cordell_bank_buoy.html 4 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Monthly anomalies 3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 2. Monthly anomalies of SSTs, Bodega buoy, 2004–15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. Data source: http://shorestation.ucsd.edu/active/index_active.html#farallonstation 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Jan June Nov April Sept Feb July Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan June Nov April Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan June Nov April Sep Monthly anomalies 4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 3. Monthly anomalies of SSTs, SEFI, 2004-15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. 5 Data source: http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/ 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Monthly anomalies 4 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 4. Monthly anomalies of SSTs, MODIS Aqua satellite, 2004-November 2015. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. Sea surface salinity, ocean acidification, and hypoxia Overview Sea surface salinity values are also used as indicators of upwelling, as high sea surface salinities can be a sign of nutrient inputs from deeper waters. Two climate change-related phenomena have become issues of concern for our coastal oceans: ocean acidification and hypoxia. Rising concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) have led to an increase in the amount of CO2 dissolved in the world’s oceans, which has decreased ocean pH (acidifying the water) and also led to decreased concentrations of carbonate and bicarbonate ions, important building blocks for calcium carbonate shells. Ocean acidification is typically monitored through investigating changes in the aragonite saturation state, which is the measure of the soluble form of calcium carbonate and used by many marine calcifying organisms, and is reported on an Omega scale (Ω). An aragonite saturation state of 1 or above is favorable to shell building for calcifying organisms; less than one is considered not favorable for shell building. Building on work developed for other regions of the west coast (Juranek et al., 2009; Alin et al., 2012), Catherine Davis and Tessa Hill (UC Davis, Bodega Marine Lab) worked with ACCESS to mathematically derive aragonite saturation state for the local region using easily-measured properties of the water: temperature, salinity, and dissolved oxygen. The working relationship is still preliminary with further sampling and verification of this regional saturation state relationship needed and planned on future ACCESS cruises. Hypoxia is defined as an incidence of low oxygen waters, particularly < 2 mg/L of dissolved oxygen. These low oxygen conditions are of concern for marine species, especially in benthic habitats where organisms may be less mobile or unable to move to areas with sufficient oxygen. Commercially-important fisheries (e.g. Dungeness crab) are at risk from finding dead crabs in their pots (as seen off Bodega Bay and Half Moon Bay in 2015; J. Jahncke, pers. comm.) and losing millions of dollars from hypoxia events. There is a need for broad scale oxygen monitoring in northern California. With dissolved oxygen data collected during CTD casts during ACCESS cruises since 2010, we hope to contribute to the understanding of when and where these hypoxic events occur. Southeast Farallon Island data Sea surface salinity data from SEFI in the first half of 2015 showed high but not anomalous salinity values (i.e. the positive blue bars); the second half of 2015 had low salinity values (i.e. the negative red bars; Figure 5). Low salinity values (i.e. the negative red bars) were evident in 2004-06, indicating weak upwelling conditions. Anomalously high salinity values were observed in early months of 2007-09 and 2012. Salinity values in 2010-11 were average, indicating a lack of strong upwelling events in the early months of these years. Conversely, 2012-14 had high salinity values in the early months, suggesting upwelling during this time. Aragonite saturation state Calculated aragonite saturation state from variables measured from CTD casts west of Cordell Bank during September cruises showed low aragonite saturation (< 1.0 Ω) throughout the water column (Figure 6). Only surface waters (~40 m and above) in 2012, 2013, and 2015 displayed aragonite saturation levels above 1. . Dissolved oxygen 1 0.5 0 -0.5 -1 -1.5 -2 -2.5 Data source: http://shorestation.ucsd.edu/active/index_active.html#farallonstation Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Monthly anomalies Dissolved oxygen concentrations measured west of Cordell Bank during September cruises showed hypoxic conditions (< 2 mg/L, shown in red) at depth (Figure 7). We do not have data at depth in 2015; however, near-hypoxic conditions were noted at ~140 m and deeper in 2012-14. In 2010, hypoxic conditions were observed in shallower locations (~120 m below the surface). 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 5. Monthly anomalies of sea surface salinity, SEFI, 2004 – October 2015. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. Depth (m) Aragonite saturation state 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Figure 6. Aragonite saturation state measured to 200 m below the surface on September ACCESS cruises, line 2, station W, 2010-15. Depth (m) Dissolved O2 (mg/L) Year Figure 7. Dissolved oxygen concentrations measured to 200 m below the surface on September ACCESS cruises, line 2, station W, 2010 and 2012-15. Winds, upwelling and sea level height Overview Upwelling is a wind-driven process where coastal winds blowing parallel to the coast result in an offshore movement of surface water drawing deep, cold, nutrient-rich waters to the surface nearshore. The strength and periodicity of upwelling can have a significant effect on the marine ecosystem; periods of strong upwelling are normally alternated by relaxation events that allow for the spring bloom to occur. Historically, alongshore winds and upwelling values increase during the early months (both reaching a maximum in June), then decline through the remainder of the year. In addition to wind and upwelling indices, sea surface height is an indicator of upwelling conditions. When sea surface height is low, this is an indication that winds have pushed surface waters offshore and upwelling is occurring. Winds Strong winds (i.e. negative blue bars), measured locally at the NOAA buoy 46013, were evident in early (January-April) and late (September-December) months of 2015, while the middle of the year (May-August) showed relaxed conditions (i.e. positive red bars; Figure 8). There was moderate alongshore wind activity in 2004, followed by a lack of alongshore winds in 2005-06. Strong, upwelling-producing winds are clearly visible in the early months of 200709. Alongshore winds in 2010 appeared to weaken, with some strong wind activity in MayJune and November. Winds continued to be moderate to weak throughout most of 2011-12, with periods of stronger winds observed in the early and later months of these years. Stronger alongshore winds were observed in 2013, with a relaxation event during the summer months. Alongshore winds in 2014 were weak, with strong winds observed in Jan and May. Upwelling NOAA Pacific Fisheries Environmental Lab regional upwelling indices show moderate upwelling conditions (i.e. positive blue bars) throughout 2015, with downwelling (i.e. negative red bars) only evident in July-August (Figure 9). Intermittent upwelling and downwelling (i.e. negative red bars) events were noticed in the early months of some years (e.g. 2004, 2011), while upwelling was weak and delayed in 2005-06 and 2010. Strong upwelling conditions were found in the early months of 2007-09, followed by relaxation events. Strong upwelling was noted in most of 2012 and 2013, while upwelling weakened in 2014. In contrast, measurements from a local buoy in 2015 indicate mostly downwelling conditions through Aug, followed by upwelling conditions for the remainder of the year (Figure 10). This buoy may be capturing localized conditions not observed in the monthly indices. Satellite data Sea surface height measured from satellites throughout 2015 was higher (i.e., positive red bars), suggesting downwelling conditions during this period (Figure 11). Higher than average heights were observed in 2004-06, indicating downwelling or relaxation conditions. From early 2007 through the first half of 2009, sea surface height declined (i.e., negative blue bars), suggesting upwelling in the region. Downwelling conditions returned in mid-2009, then switched to upwelling in mid-2010, which persisted through February 2011. Weak relaxation conditions returned in May-September 2011, then weak upwelling conditions dominated the remainder of the year and into 2012. Weak upwelling was followed by weak downwelling in both 2012 and 2013. Sea surface heights have been anomalously high since late 2013. Data source: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=46013 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Monthly anomalies 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 8. Monthly anomalies of alongshore winds, 2004–15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around long-term monthly means. Red bars indicate weak winds, and blue bars indicate strong winds. Data source: http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/upwelling/NA/upwell_menu_NA.html 100 0 -100 -200 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Monthly anomalies 200 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 9. Monthly anomalies of regional upwelling indices, 2004 –15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around long-term monthly means. Red bars indicate downwelling, and blue bars indicate upwelling. Data source: http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_history.php?station=46013 50 0 -50 -100 Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Monthly anomalies 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 10. Monthly anomalies of local upwelling indices as calculated from the Bodega buoy data, 2004–15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around long-term monthly means. Red bars indicate downwelling, and blue bars indicate upwelling. Data source: http://www.aviso.oceanobs.com/en/data/products/index.html 0.08 0.04 0 -0.04 -0.08 Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Jan Jul Monthly anomalies 0.12 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 11. Monthly anomalies of sea surface heights, Aviso satellite, 2004– November 2015. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. Spring transition Overview The timing of upwelling can have significant effects on the marine ecosystem. The beginning of the upwelling season is known as the spring transition date, and earlier spring transition dates are linked to greater productivity in our regional marine ecosystem. The average spring transition date is March 29, the earliest date was February 18 (in 2007, a cold water year), and the latest date was May 11 (in 1983, an El Niño year). Spring transition The spring transition date based on daily upwelling values in 2015 was March 28, which is the average transition date in the time series (Figure 12). Most of the recent years (e.g. 2006-09, 2012-13) showed earlier transition dates (i.e. negative bars) and some years (e.g. 2010) had a late spring transition (i.e. positive bars). Spring transition dates calculated from Bodega Bay buoy data since 1981 show similar results as dates calculated from upwelling indices for most years, including an average date for 2015 (Figure 13). Late transition dates tend to be associated with El Niño events (e.g. 1983) and early dates with La Niña years (e.g. 2007). 45 15 0 -15 -30 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 1980 1978 1976 -45 1974 Data source: http://www.pfeg.noaa.gov/products/PFEL/modeled/indices/upwelling/NA/upwell_menu_NA.html 1972 Annual anomalies 30 2014 2012 2010 2008 2006 2004 2002 2000 1998 1996 1994 1992 1990 1988 1986 1984 1982 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40 -50 1980 Annual anomalies Figure 12. Anomalies of spring transition dates based on daily upwelling indices, 19722015. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around 44-year mean. Negative bars indicate early transition dates, and positive bars indicate late transition dates. Figure 13. Anomalies of spring transition dates based on Bodega Bay buoy data, 19812015. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around 35-year mean. Negative bars indicate early transition dates, and positive bars indicate late transition dates. Climate Indices Overview Several climate indices have been developed to understand climate effects on the basin-level scale. The Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) is based on differences in mean sea level pressure anomalies between Tahiti and Darwin, Australia. Negative SOI values indicate warm ocean conditions related to El Niño, and cold water conditions are shown in positive SOI values. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shows changes in surface waters in the North Pacific (from 20°N to the pole) at inter-decadal scales. Positive PDO values correspond to warmer ocean waters in the eastern Pacific, and negative PDO values correspond to cold waters. The North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) measures changes in circulation of the North Pacific gyre, and is highly correlated with nutrients and overall productivity. Similar to the SOI, negative NPGO values reflect warm water and poor productivity, while cold water and high productivity correspond to positive NPGO values. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) SOI values in 2015 showed warm water conditions (i.e. negative red bars) throughout most of the year (Figure 14). Warm waters were observed from 2004 through the first half of 2007. Cold water conditions (i.e., positive blue bars) were observed from mid-2007 through early 2009, at which point the SOI changed to negative values again. The SOI remained mostly negative throughout the later months of 2009 and early 2010, switching to positive values in March 2010. SOI values in 2011 showed cold water conditions, while values in 2012 were average to warm. Normal to cool conditions dominated 2013, then switched to warmer conditions in 2014. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) PDO results for 2015 showed warm water conditions (i.e. positive red bars) for the year (Figure 15). Warm water conditions dominated the early years of this time series (roughly 2004-07), while cold water conditions (i.e. negative blue bars) were more prominent from late 2007 through the end of 2009. A brief period of warm water conditions returned in late 2009 and early 2010, then giving way to cold conditions from mid-2010 through 2013. Warm waters dominated from 2014 to present. North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) NPGO values for 2015 indicate warm water, poor productivity conditions (i.e. negative red bars; Figure 16). Warm water, poor productivity conditions were evident throughout 2005 and 2006. Normal values were observed for most of 2009, while cold, productive conditions 6 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 Data source: http://www.cgd.ucar.edu/cas/catalog/climind/SOI.signal.ascii Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep SOI values (i.e. positive blue bars) were evident in all other years. Similar to the PDO, results for 2013 indicated a warming trend, which has continued to the present. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Data source: http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/ Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug PDO values Figure 14. Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values, 2004 –15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 Data source: http://eros.eas.gatech.edu/npgo/ Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep NPGO values Figure 15. Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) values, 2004–15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 16. North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO) values, 2004-15. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. Nutrients Overview With the input of nutrients like nitrate, phosphate, and silicon to the surface layers of the ocean during upwelling, phytoplankton have light from the sun and the necessary components to grow and reproduce. Phytoplankton need nitrate and phosphate for photosynthesis, while diatoms use silicon to build their cell walls. Nutrient concentrations can be used to track conditions conducive to primary production and the productivity of the regional marine ecosystem. At-sea water sample data 30 NO3+NO2 20 Si 10 0 -10 -20 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Sep Jun Jul Sep May Jul Sep May Jul May Jul May Jun Apr Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 Apr Average [PO4] (µM) Average [NO3+NO2] and [Si] (µM) Surface concentrations of nitrogen-based (NO3+NO2), silicon-based (Si), and phosphate-based (PO4) nutrients in 2015 were low, continuing the decline that began in mid-2014 (Figure 17). Other warm-water events (e.g. 2005-06, mid-2009) also showed reduced nutrient concentrations, while higher concentrations were observed in cold-water conditions (e.g. 200708, early 2009). 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 17. Average surface concentrations of and NO3+NO2, Si, and PO4 ACCESS cruises, 200515. Chlorophyll a and phytoplankton composition Overview Concentrations of chlorophyll a can provide information on the amount of phytoplankton in surface waters. The timing of peak phytoplankton abundance could also have effects on how productive a marine ecosystem will be. Satellite data provide us with phytoplankton abundance estimates; long-term monthly means in abundance show increasing phytoplankton abundance in March-May, a slight decline through September, then a peak in October. Phytoplankton collected within and adjacent to the Sanctuaries was analyzed by the California Department of Health to evaluate Harmful Algal Bloom (HAB) species, which also helps us understand the phytoplankton community composition. Composition of the phytoplankton community can provide insight into how productive an ecosystem might be. For instance, an increase in the abundance of dinoflagellates (a small organism) could signify poor ocean conditions, whereas a greater abundance of diatoms (a larger organism) could indicate more productive ocean waters. Satellite data Phytoplankton blooms (i.e. positive anomalies) were observed in most months through Jun 2015 (Figure 18). There is some evidence of peak chlorophyll in the spring and fall months of 2004-06, but evidence for sustained phytoplankton blooms is lacking in 2007-15. From the oceanographic results, we might have anticipated seeing anomalously high chlorophyll a concentrations in 2007-09, when upwelling conditions were good. However, blooms are known to occur after the seasonal thermocline is established, so the peak chlorophyll concentrations in later months (fall and winter) of 2005 and 2006 could be explained by the delayed upwelling in those years. Strong upwelling and a lack of relaxation could explain the average to low phytoplankton abundance in 2007-10. Blooms appeared more frequently in 2011 but were relatively small and sporadic, whereas blooms were relatively non-existent in 2012. Evidence of more substantial phytoplankton blooms were evident in the early months of 2013-15. California Department of Health data Phytoplankton composition results for 2015 are not yet available; however, 2014 was largely dominated by diatoms, similar to 2012-13 (Figure 19). Other years (e.g. 2006, 2007, 2009 and 2011) showed an increase in dinoflagellates from spring/summer to fall/winter, while other years (e.g. 2010 and 2012-13) showed low dinoflagellate abundance throughout the year. Dinoflagellates are most associated with warm, less turbulent waters later in the year (when diatoms sink and become scarce in surface waters) and are responsible for harmful algal blooms (e.g. red tides) common in the fall months. Contrary to most years, dinoflagellates were relatively more abundant than diatoms in the spring/summer of 2008. The greater importance of diatoms (i.e., the species most associated with cold, turbulent ocean waters) throughout the 10year time series could indicate improved upwelling conditions through time. Data source: http://oceancolor.gsfc.nasa.gov/ Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Feb Jul Dec May Oct Mar Aug Jan Jun Nov Apr Sep Monthly anomalies 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Mar-Jul Aug-Feb Aug-Feb 2005 Mar-Jul diatoms dinoflagellates 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Mar-Jul Average percent composition Figure 18. Monthly anomalies of chlorophyll a, MODIS Aqua satellite, 2004 – November 2015. Black lines represent ±99% confidence intervals around the long-term monthly means. 2014 Figure 19. Average relative composition of diatoms and dinoflagellates in offshore samples, 2005-14. Zooplankton composition Overview Information on the abundance and species composition of zooplankton are also indicators of the productivity of an ecosystem. For example, an overabundance of gelatinous species can signify poor productivity, and a highly productive ecosystem may have high abundances of euphausiids which are important prey for fish, seabirds, and marine mammals. Overall relative composition While 2013-15 data are not yet available, we can see variability in zooplankton abundance and composition in years 2004-12 (Figure 20). Anecdotal observations of zooplankton samples taken during 2014 and early 2015 ACCESS cruises appeared to be dominated by gelatinous zooplankton; small amounts of small euphasiids reappeared in summer 2015 and larger amounts of larger euphausiids were present in fall 2015. From Sep 2004 through Oct 2006, the overall average abundance of zooplankton is greatly reduced and never reaches over 30 individuals per cubic meter of water sampled. The trend changed in 2007, when overall zooplankton abundance increased dramatically, and this overall increase in zooplankton abundance is sustained for most surveys in 2007 and 2008. This is mainly attributed to increases in euphausiid and copepod abundance. The first half of 2009 shows high zooplankton abundance (especially euphausiids and copepods), followed by a return to low zooplankton densities. Results from 2010 show increasing zooplankton abundances through the year, with a significant increase (particularly for copepods) in Sep. Zooplankton increased in abundance considerably in 2011, particularly euphausiids. However, preliminary results for 2012 reveal a drastic decline in zooplankton. While we do not have samples from each month of the year, our results show increasing zooplankton abundance in spring, a peak in Jun, and a decline in fall; however, not all years show this pattern (e.g. 2010, 2011). Overall community analysis We looked for similarities between different years based on the zooplankton species composition data by performing a non-metric multi-dimensional scaling analysis for samples collected in the spring and summer months (Apr-Jul; Figure 21). In general, there appear to be two main groups that cluster together: years 2004-06, and years 2007-12. A scattering of samples in the upper left corner are largely from samples collected in July 2009, and June and July 2010. Conditions in mid-2009 changed from cold waters to warm waters, which revealed a change in the zooplankton community (Fontana et al., in review), and this could be one reason for the departure of these samples from the others in the 2007-12 group. AMPHIPODS COPEPODS DECAPODS EUPHAUSIIDS MYSIDS PISCES Other 500 400 300 200 100 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep May Sep May Jul May Jul May Feb 0 Sep Average abundance (# / m3) 600 2012 Figure 20. Zooplankton composition in the upper 50 m of the water column determined from hoop net samples, 2004- September 2012. NOTE: Euphausiid abundances include all life stages except eggs. Data are not complete for 2012. Figure 21. Non-metric multi-dimensional scaling analysis of zooplankton results, April-July samples, 2004-12. NOTE: Data are not complete for 2012. Copepods Overview Copepods are mid-trophic level organisms, and they are the most abundant and diverse zooplankton taxon, constituting the largest source of protein in the marine environment. Copepod communities change in response to changing oceanographic conditions, and the presence and absence of key species can indicate these changes. Copepods that are common to northern latitudes (called boreal species) become more abundant in colder, productive ocean waters. Transition zone species are common species to this region, yet they can become more abundant in colder waters and less abundant in poor ocean conditions. Equatorial species (i.e., species from tropical or subtropical regions) can be found during warm water intrusions (e.g., El Niño events) from southern latitudes. Relative composition While we do not yet have data for all years, the results we do have indicate changes in the copepod species composition, the most notable in the boreal species (Figure 22). These species were largely absent for the first three years of data (2004-06), and abundance increased significantly in 2007-08; boreal species declined again in the latter half of 2009, but a dramatic increase was observed in 2010 and 2011. Preliminary results for 2012 illustrate another sharp reduction in boreal species. While we do not have samples from each month of the year, our results for boreal copepods generally show increasing abundances in spring, peak abundance in Jun, and declining densities in fall, but this varies with ocean conditions (e.g. 2009, 2010). Species common to mid-latitude areas were in relatively low abundances throughout the time series, with peaks in abundance in the latter months (especially September) in 2007-08 and 2010-11 (Figure 23). While we do not have samples from each month of the year, our within year results varied greatly, with peak abundances in Jun for some years (e.g. 2007, 2009) and September/October for others (e.g. 2005, 2006, 2010, 2011). Equatorial copepods remained in low abundances throughout the nine years, except for the increases in abundance during Sep cruises of 2007-09, and 2011; these copepods have, so far, been declining in 2012 samples (Figure 24). 150 100 50 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jul Sep May Jul May Jul May Jun Apr Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Apr 0 Jul Average abundance (# / m3) 200 2012 Figure 22. Average abundances of boreal copepod species, 2004–September 2012. NOTE: Data are not complete for 2012. 200 150 100 50 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jul Sep May Jul May Jul May Jun Apr Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Oct Apr 0 Jul Average abundance (# / m3) 250 2012 Figure 23. Average abundances of transition zone copepod species, 2004–September 2012. NOTE: Data are not complete for 2012. 4 3 2 1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Jul Sep May Jul May Jul May Jun Apr Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Apr Oct 0 Jul Average abundance (# / m3) 5 2012 Figure 24. Average abundances of equatorial copepod species, 2004–September 2012. NOTE: Data are not complete for 2012. Pteropods Overview Pteropods are pelagic marine gastropods and are commonly known as sea butterflies. There are two orders of these mid-trophic level organisms: Thecosomata and Gymnosomata; the former contains a shell while the latter does not. One species belonging in the order Thecosomata, Limacina helicina, has been used to study the effects of ocean acidification. This species’ calcium carbonate shell is sensitive to dissolution in acidic conditions, and shell thickness can be measured on this species to assess ocean acidification and its effects on the marine environment. L. helicina has been classified as a key indicator species of ocean acidification for this region (Duncan et al, 2013). Abundance We do not yet have results from 2013-14. However, results we have so far reveal very low abundances of L. helicina in our region during the first two years of our study (Figure 23). Increases were first noted in Jun 2006 (which may have coincided with the beginning of the delayed upwelling in that year). Abundances have remained at low levels since, with dramatic increases noted in the 2011 cruises. Preliminary results from 2012 reveal very low abundances of pteropods in June and an increase in July and September. The significance of these results so far are still being discussed. 5 4 3 2 1 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Figure 23. Average abundance of the pteropod Limacina helicina, 2004-12. NOTE: Data are not complete for 2012. Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep May Sep May Jul May Jul May Feb 0 Sep Average abundance (# / m3) Future work is being planned to measure the shell thickness of this species from the ACCESS samples. 2012 Euphausiids Overview Euphausiids (commonly known as krill) are important mid-trophic level organisms, feeding mainly on phytoplankton and then becoming prey for many marine top predators (e.g., salmon, seabirds, and blue and humpback whales). There are two main species found in the study region: Euphausia pacifica and Thysanoessa spinifera, the former being more abundant than the latter. Adult and immature stages of these species are known to be the primary prey items of the Cassin’s auklet, a zooplanktivorous seabird species breeding on the Farallon Islands. Abundance Acoustic biomass results show the highest euphausiid biomass in 2015 during June, followed by a decline for the remaining months of the year (Figure 24). Abundance of euphausiids down to 200 m below the surface were lower in the first 5 years (2004-08) with seasonal peaks in spring/summer, followed by increased abundance in 2009-13. Euphausiid abundance appeared to be declining in 2011-14, then increased in 2015. While we do not have samples from each month of the year, our results indicate annual peaks in euphausiid abundance appeared to shift from mostly June cruises (2004-08), then July cruises (2009-14), and now back to Jun (2015). The large 2006 densities are likely due to salps and other gelatinous zooplankton that were abundant that year, as these species can confound acoustic results. Euphausiid age classes Adult E. pacifica were more abundant in Tucker trawl samples (i.e., sampling down to 200 m) during the June and September cruises of 2015, while younger life stages dominated samples in Jul (Figure 25). Adult euphausiids were more abundant during the cold, productive conditions of 2007-08, as well as average conditions in 2010-11, while younger stages dominated during the warm, less productive conditions observed of 2005-06, and later months of 2009, 2012, and 2014. Despite the warm conditions in 2015, there were more adult euphausiids than might be expected. Adults were abundant for most of 2010-13, although percentages appear to be declining through time, with fall cruises (September) usually show higher percentages of the younger life stages. Adult euphausiid sizes Adult E. pacifica caught in Tucker trawls vary in size depending on the ocean conditions of the year (Figure 26). When we combine results from the cold water years (e.g. 2007-13), the length frequency distribution peaks at 13 mm and 20 mm. Warm water years (e.g. 2005-06, 2014-15) show only one peak at 13 mm. Overall, cold conditions result in larger adult euphausiids compared to warm conditions. 80 60 40 20 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep May Sep May Jul May Jul May Feb Sep 0 May Average density of euphausiids (g/m2) 100 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 24. Acoustic biomass of euphausiids down to 200 m, 2004-15. 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 zoea 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 juveniles immatures adults Figure 25. Percent composition of Euphausia pacifica age classes, 2004-15. 0.4 Proportion of E. pacifica adults Sep Jun Jul Sep May Jul Sep May Jul May Jul May Jun Apr Jun Oct Jun Oct Jun Apr Oct Percent of total wet weight 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 2005-06 2007-13 0.3 2014-15 0.2 0.1 0 length ranges (mm) Figure 26. Length frequency distributions for adult Euphausia pacifica caught in Tucker trawls during spring/summer (May-July), 2005-15. Birds Overview Seabirds are top marine predators that feed on a variety of marine organisms. Some species breed within our study area, while other species migrate great distances to spend their nonbreeding period in the central California Current. The abundances and distributions of marine birds have been linked to bathymetric and hydrographic features which aggregate prey; many seabirds live in or travel to the central California Current because of the highlyproductive waters common to the region. Relative composition There were a total of 56 species of seabirds identified during at-sea cruises (Table 1). When looking at the top ten most abundant seabird species, six of these are known to breed on SEFI or other areas within the central California Current. Sooty and pink-footed shearwaters overwinter in the study area, while phalarope species can be found here as they make their way from their Arctic breeding grounds to tropical waters for the non-breeding period. The next few sections will concentrate on the information available on some of these abundant species, particularly three species which breed on SEFI: common murre, Cassin’s auklet, and Brandt’s cormorant. Table 1. Seabird species and average densities per cruise, 2004-15. Common Name common murre sooty shearwater Cassin's auklet pink-footed shearwater western gull Brandt's cormorant rhinoceros auklet red-necked phalarope unidentified phalarope California gull ashy storm-petrel northern fulmar black-footed albatross fork-tailed storm-petrel pigeon guillemot red phalarope unidentified gull Buller's shearwater Heermann's gull unidentified shearwater black-legged kittiwake pelagic cormorant black storm-petrel brown pelican Average density (number of animals observed per km2 of survey area) 17.912 10.542 8.762 1.394 1.300 1.010 0.867 0.740 0.550 0.352 0.337 0.281 0.233 0.229 0.210 0.184 0.106 0.090 0.052 0.046 0.034 0.029 0.023 0.021 tufted puffin Sabine's gull Pacific loon unidentified alcid Bonaparte's gull 0.018 0.017 0.014 0.012 0.012 unidentified dark shearwater Scripps's murrelet short-tailed shearwater pomarine jaeger Arctic tern surf scoter unidentified auklet double-crested cormorant flesh-footed shearwater glaucous-winged gull 0.011 0.010 0.010 0.008 0.007 0.005 0.005 0.003 0.003 0.003 Common Name ancient murrelet unidentified storm-petrel common loon elegant tern South Polar skua Laysan albatross parasitic jaeger Thayer's gull unidentified loon mottled petrel red-throated loon Wilson's storm-petrel black scoter herring gull Average density (number of animals observed per km2 of survey area) 0.003 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.002 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 0.001 Cassin’s auklet Brief species account The Cassin’s auklet is a small burrowing seabird that breeds on the Farallon Islands. This is a zooplanktivorous species, with the majority of their diet consisting of euphausiids. Abundance In 2015, the highest number of Cassin’s auklets (376 auklets) was observed in July (Figure 27). The highest number of Cassin’s auklets in the time series was found in May 2004 (2683 auklets). After this, less than half this peak number was observed in any cruise. In general, counts were higher during the breeding season (March-August). The lowest number of auklets was found in 2006, the year with delayed and weak upwelling conditions. Numbers rebounded to some degree in 2009-14. Intra-annual results track the euphausiid acoustic results, with peak numbers occurring during Jun for most years through 2008, then peak auklet counts shifted to July for the remaining years. 2500 2000 1500 1000 500 0 May Sep Feb May Jul May Jul May Sep May Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep Jul Jun Sep Jul Jun Sep Jul Total number observed 3000 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 27. Abundances of Cassin’s auklets observed during each cruise, 2004-15. Distribution Cassin’s auklets were observed between SEFI and Cordell Bank in Jun 2015 (Figure 28). Cassin’s auklets are raising chicks during the months of May and Jun, which is why they were found close to SEFI in some years (e.g., 2012). While not shown here, poor upwelling years (e.g. 2005-06) were characterized by smaller auklet flocks, and they ventured farther north and inland. Improved ocean conditions returned in 2007, and auklets were observed over Cordell Bank, along the shelf break and closer to SEFI, but not in the large flocks noted in 2004. 2013 2012 2014 2015 Figure 28. Cassin’s auklet distributions during May or June 2012-15. NOTE: July 2014 is shown here, as the June survey only covered a small area. Cassin’s auklet Timing of breeding The Cassin’s auklet median egg lay date for 2015 was a few days later than the 44-year average on SEFI (Figure 29). Anomalously late lay dates correspond to El Niño events (e.g., 1982, 1992, 1998), when ocean conditions were poor. Since 2004, lay dates for Cassin’s auklets have been average or earlier than the long-term average, with only 2005 (i.e., a poor ocean condition year) being noticeably later. There is a slight trend towards later lay dates through the time series, but this is not significant. Breeding success Breeding success for the Cassin’s auklet on SEFI was slightly higher than average in 2015, plotting above the 45-year mean but within the 80% confidence interval (Figure 30). The anomalously low productivity years have occurred during El Niño years (e.g., 1983, 1992) and generally correlate with years of later egg laying (Figure 29); years 2005 and 2006 are exceptions, as these were not El Niño years and lay dates were near the average, but they were the worse productivity years on record. Surprisingly, the warm water conditions in 2014-15 did not translate to reduced productivity for this species. Conversely, earlier lay dates (e.g., 2009-13; Figure 29) were linked to better productivity, indicating that an earlier start to breeding can lead to higher breeding success. Diet The 35-year diet time series for Cassin’s auklets is dominated by euphausiids, including 2015 (Figure 31). The diet in 2005-06 deviate greatly from the other years, as mysids (shrimp-like marine invertebrates) comprised the entire diet of the few diet samples collected in those years. This also led to breeding failure (Figure 30), revealing the importance of euphausiids in this species’ diet, as well as the lack of euphausiids in the region during 2005 and 2006. Since the breeding failures of 2005-06, euphausiids have increased in the auklet diet, and breeding success has also rebounded. In addition, the size class of euphausiids consumed matters. In warm water years, adult euphausiids that are consumed by auklets are smaller (Figure 26) and have less lipid content compared to the larger euphausiids available during cold water years. Standardized anomaly (days) 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure 29. Cassin’s auklet annual median egg lay dates on SEFI, 1972-2015. Standardized productivity anomaly 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure 30. Cassin’s auklet breeding success anomalies on SEFI, 1971-2015. Solid black line represents 45-year mean, and dotted red lines represent ±80% confidence intervals. 100% 60% 40% 20% Other Pisces Mysids Amphipods 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 0% 1970 Percent by number 80% Euphausiids Figure 31. Cassin’s auklet diet composition (through regurgitation analysis) on SEFI, 19712015. Common murres Brief species account The common murre is a frequently-observed seabird in the study region and breeds on the Farallon Islands. They are an omnivorous seabird feeding mainly on fish, but they also consume zooplankton. Abundance In 2015, common murres were observed in lower abundances compared to 2014, with the highest number counted in July (Figure 32). Since 2004, the highest number of murres were seen in July 2010 (2405 murres) and April 2005 (2264 murres). This species was abundant in 2004 and early 2005, then declined in abundance in 2006. Counts of murres gradually increased over the next few years, followed by a decline since 2010. In general, this species was present in higher number in spring and summer (i.e., May-Jul, the breeding months) than in the fall months. 2000 1500 1000 500 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep May Sep May Jul May Jul May Feb Sep 0 May Total number observed 2500 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 32. Abundances of common murres observed during each cruise, 2004-15. Distribution In 2015, common murres were observed on the shelf (between SEFI and Cordell Bank), as well as in nearshore waters (Figure 33). This is similar to most years (e.g., 2004-06, 2008, 2010-11, not shown; 2012-13, Figure 33). In some years, this species was more dispersed, with more observations in the northern parts of the study area (e.g., 2005 and 2009, not shown) or further nearshore to the southeast area of SEFI (e.g., 2007-08, not shown). Note that distributions shown here represent adult murre distributions; common murre chicks do not start appearing in the waters of the sanctuaries until July and after. 2013 2012 2014 2015 Figure 33. Common murre distributions during May or June, 2012-15. NOTE: July 2014 is shown here, as the June survey only covered a small area. Common murres Timing of breeding Median egg laying date in 2015 was 8 days later than the long-term average (Figure 34). Similar to the Cassin’s auklet, we observed that common murres have later lay dates in poor ocean condition years (e.g., 1983, 1992, 1998, 2015). Since 2004, the annual median lay date has hovered close to the long-term mean, with some years showing earlier lay dates (e.g., 2004, 2007, 2008, 2013) and some years showing later dates (e.g., 2005, 2006, 2009-11). There has been a slight trend in earlier lay dates through time, although this is not significant. Breeding success Common murre breeding success in 2015 was just below the 44-year mean (Figure 35). Similar to the Cassin’s auklet, anomalously low productivity years (e.g., 1983, 1992, 1998) that punctuate the time series correspond to El Niño years, as well as years with late median lay dates (Figure 34). However, recent years of extremely low breeding success (i.e., 2006 and 2009) had relatively late median lay dates but were not El Niño years. Earlier lay dates (e.g., 1988; Figure 34) were linked to better productivity in some years, but this was not consistent; annual median lay dates for 2006 and 2009 were earlier compared to 2005, yet breeding success was worse. Some of these discrepancies in lay dates and productivity can be explained by low feeding rates to chicks, as observed in 2009. Diet In 2015, common murre chicks on SEFI were fed mostly juvenile rockfish and anchovy/sardine (Figure 36). Prey items being brought to common murre chicks have varied over time, with rockfish being the main diet items in the 1970s and 1980s, then anchovy and sardine becoming the dominant prey in the 1990s. This changed again in the early 2000s when rockfish became the dominant prey, then back to anchovy/sardine in the 2004-08 period. Since 2009, rockfish has been more important in the diet, although anchovy/sardine have become a larger part of the diet in 2015. Historically, El Niño years corresponded to years with a low percentage of rockfish in the diet; these were also years of late timing of breeding (Figure 34) and low breeding success (Figure 35). However, 2005 and 2006 were not El Niño years, yet these years of poor ocean conditions yielded late breeding, low breeding success, and few rockfish in the murre diet. The 2009 results have been exceptional, as murres were eating a lot of rockfish, yet breeding success was one of the lowest years on record; as mentioned previously, low chick feeding rates can help explain the low productivity in this year. Standardized anomaly (days) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2010 2015 Figure 34. Common murre annual median egg lay dates on SEFI, 1972-2015. Standardized productivity anomaly 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Figure 35. Common murre breeding success anomalies on SEFI, 1972-2015. Solid black line represents 44-year mean, and dotted red lines represent ±80% confidence intervals. 100% 60% 40% 20% Other Anchovy/Sardine Rockfish Figure 36. Common murre chick diet composition on SEFI, 1973-2015. 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 0% 1970 Percent by number 80% Brandt’s cormorant Brief species account Brandt’s cormorants are piscivorous birds found throughout the coastal areas of California. They are one of the breeding seabirds monitored on SEFI. Abundance Since 2008, Brandt’s cormorants were observed in very low numbers, and this trend has continued in 2015 (Figure 37). Numbers of Brandt’s cormorants have declined through the time series, with the peak in October 2004 (273 cormorants); since this cruise, numbers have been less than half of this high count. The October 2004 peak was later in the year compared to the high counts of other years, which generally occurred during the summer months (i.e., the breeding season). The low abundances observed in 2008-12 correspond to poor productivity for this species in these years (Figure 38). 250 200 150 100 50 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep May Sep May Jul May Jul May Feb Sep 0 May Total number observed 300 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 37. Abundances of Brandt’s cormorants observed during each cruise, 2004-14. Distribution In 2014, Brandt’s cormorants were observed in nearshore waters near San Francisco Bay and the Point Reyes peninsula, which could be explained by the later season (July) distribution compared to earlier distributions shown for other years (Figure 38). Brandt’s cormorants have been observed near SEFI in most other years (Figure 36). In some years, this species was more scattered and observed in smaller groups or as individual birds in waters closer to shore (e.g., 2007 and 2010 (not shown), and 2012). 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 38. Brandt’s cormorant distributions during May or June, 2012-15. NOTE: July 2014 is shown here, as the June survey only covered a small area. Brandt’s cormorants Timing of breeding The median egg lay date for Brandt’s cormorants on SEFI in 2015 was 9 days later than the 44year average (Figure 39). Timing of breeding in Brandt’s cormorants isn’t as clearly linked to ocean conditions as in Cassin’s auklets or common murres; El Niño years (e.g., 1983, 1992, and 1998, 2015) do not show anomalously late lay dates. There has been a slight trend in later lay dates through time, although this is not significant. Since 2004, this species began breeding early for three years (2004, 2006-07), and then bred late in 2005 and extremely late in 2008-12. The return to average median egg laying dates in the past three years has corresponded to improved breeding success (see below). Breeding success Breeding success of Brandt’s cormorants on SEFI in 2015 was slightly above the long-term average (Figure 40). Most of the annual productivity estimates for Brandt’s cormorants fall within the 80% confidence intervals around the long-term mean, similar to auklets and murres; however, unlike auklets and murres, Brandt’s cormorants have experienced several years of extremely low productivity, usually corresponding to El Niño years (e.g., 1983, 1992). In looking at breeding success data since 2004, above average breeding success was observed in the first four years (2004-07), then extremely low productivity in 2007-12, very high in 2013-14, and now closer to average. Diet Brandt’s cormorants on SEFI in 2015 consumed almost exclusively rockfish (Figure 41). The diet of Brandt’s cormorants on SEFI has consisted of forage fishes (i.e., northern anchovy, Pacific sardine), various benthic species (i.e., sculpins, gobies, rockfish, and flatfish), and cephalopods. Years with high percentages of anchovy and sardine in the diet (e.g., 1994, 2005-07) corresponded to years of high productivity, although higher breeding success has also correlated with high percentages of rockfish (e.g. 2013-14; Figure 40). Recent breeding success increases may be attributed to the increased abundance of more offshore-distributed rockfish species which were likely absent during the poor productivity years (Elliott et al. 2015). Standardized anomaly (days) 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure 39. Brandt’s cormorant annual median egg lay dates on SEFI, 1972-2015. Standardized productivity anomaly 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Figure 40. Brandt’s cormorant breeding success anomalies on SEFI, 1971-2015. Solid black line represents 45-year mean, and dotted red lines represent ±80% confidence intervals. 100% 60% 40% 20% Cephalopods Anchovy/Sardine Rockfish/Sculpin Flatfish 2015 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975 0% 1970 Percent by number 80% Other Figure 41. Brandt’s cormorant diet composition on SEFI, 1994-2015. NOTE: Data for years 1973-77 from Ainley et al. 1981. Years 1999, 2004 and 2006 have low sample sizes. Mammals Overview Marine mammals are top marine predators that feed on a variety of marine organisms. Some species breed within our study area, while other species migrate great distances to spend their non-breeding period in the central California Current. The abundances and distributions of marine mammals have been linked to bathymetric and hydrographic features which aggregate prey; many marine mammals live in or travel to the central California Current because of the highly-productive waters common to the region. Relative composition There were 20 species of marine mammals observed during at-sea cruises since 2004 (Table 2). The top fifteen most abundant marine mammal species include two known SEFI residents: California sea lion and Steller sea lion; both of these species are piscivorous. Risso’s dolphin, Dall’s porpoise, northern right whale dolphin, and Pacific white-sided dolphin all consume fish and squid, and are known to inhabit offshore waters. The two whale species (humpback and blue) are both euphausiid-consuming whales that are common to coastal and shelf waters. In the following sections, more detailed information will be provided on the two common migrant whales observed in the region: humpback whale and blue whale. Table 2. Marine mammal species and average densities per cruise, 2004-15. Common California sea lion Risso's dolphin Humpback whale Pacific white-sided dolphin Dall's porpoise northern right whale dolphin unidentified whale unidentified otariid unidentified dolphin short-beaked common dolphin blue whale unidentified pinniped Steller sea lion northern fur seal harbor porpoise killer whale northern elephant seal harbor seal unidentified cetacean common minke whale unidentified porpoise Guadalupe fur seal unidentified sea lion gray whale common dolphin (undifferentiated) unidentified seal sperm whale fin whale bottlenose dolphin Average density (number of animals observed per km of survey distance) 0.26036 0.13576 0.13294 0.11476 0.09134 0.06549 0.04283 0.02942 0.02092 0.01739 0.01565 0.01366 0.00840 0.00833 0.00654 0.00371 0.00280 0.00193 0.00068 0.00060 0.00050 0.00046 0.00044 0.00039 0.00027 0.00018 0.00010 0.00009 0.00008 Humpback Whale Brief species account Humpback whales are found in groups along the coast of western North America. The North Pacific population spends the summer months along the coast from Alaska to California, moving west and south (e.g., Hawai’i and Mexico) during the winter. This species feeds mainly on euphausiids but will also consume fish. Abundance Humpback whale abundance in 2015 was slightly higher compared to 2014, with a peak in June of 78 whales (Figure 42); while peak numbers of this species are typically seen in the fall (September-October), the warm-water conditions in the region in 2015 may have led to an earlier peak for these whales (as well as in 2010, 2011, and 2014). The highest number of humpback whales was sighted in July 2010 with 204 whales. The poor ocean conditions in 200506 could explain why there were relatively fewer whales. The improved conditions in 2007-12 have led to more sightings of this species, while fewer numbers were observed in 2013-14. 200 150 100 50 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep May Sep May Jul May Jul May Feb Sep 0 May Total number observed 250 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 42. Humpback whale abundances, 2004-15. Distribution Humpback whales were sighted near the shelf break between SEFI and Cordell Bank in 2015, as well as nearshore areas outside the entrance to San Francisco Bay (Figure 43). In 2004-06 (not shown) and 2014, this species congregated on the shelf and near SEFI in earlier months (MayJuly), and then expanded north to Cordell Bank and near the 200 m isobath in the fall (September-October). In 2007-09 (not shown), the distributions changed; humpback whales were consistently observed on the shelf throughout the study area, with some aggregations in inshore areas and near SEFI. In 2010-11 (not shown) and 2012-13, small numbers of this species were observed in early months (mainly near the shelf break), while greater numbers of whales were observed over Cordell Bank and on the shelf in later months (Figure 43); 2012 was an exception, with higher numbers observed in June in nearshore areas. 2012 2014 2013 2015 Figure 43. Humpback whale annual distributions, 2012-15. Blue Whale Brief species account The blue whale is the largest animal on earth, and it feeds on euphausiids (and occasionally other invertebrates). This species is found in all the oceans, and calves found in tropical and subtropical waters during winter months. This species is found off the coast of California during the summer. Abundance 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Jul Sep Jun Sep Jun Sep May Sep May Jul May Jul May Feb Sep 28 24 20 16 12 8 4 0 May Total number observed The highest number of blue whales in our time series (25) were observed in June 2015 (Figure 44). In contrast, later that year, only 1 blue whale was observed during surveys in September 2015. In most years, blue whales have peaked in abundance in late summer and early fall months (July-October). The delayed upwelling in 2005 may have led a delay in peak numbers, and the lack of blue whales in 2006 was evidence to the poor ocean conditions. Despite the improved conditions in 2007-09, observations of this species remained relatively low, but then increased in 2010-11; abundances declined in 2011-14. 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 44. Blue whale abundances, 2004-15. Distribution In 2015, blue whales were observed near SEFI in June, then north of Cordell Bank (near the shelf break) in July (Figure 45). These results are consistent with most other years. Blue whales have been found in the northern part of the study area (over Cordell Bank) in 2004-05 (not shown), and 2013; this species was observed closer to SEFI in 2007, 2009-11 (not shown). Blue whale sightings were scattered on the shelf in 2012. The sightings for 2014 were similar to 2015, except in fewer numbers of whales. 2012 2014 2013 2015 Figure 45. Blue whale annual distributions, 2012-15. Blue whales and euphausiid abundance Annual estimates of blue whale abundance in the core area of our time series (i.e. lines 1-7) generally follow patterns in the abundance of euphausiids, their main prey, as estimated through acoustics (Figure 46). Some years agree for predator and prey (e.g. 2007, 2010), while other years show discrepancies with euphausiids in deeper waters (e.g. 2006) and euphausiids in shallower waters (e.g. 2013, 2015). Euphausiid estimates for 2006 are likely unreliable due to the high abundance of jellies, which produce a similar acoustic signal to masses of euphausiids. Blue whale density (individuals/km2) 0.016 0.012 0.008 0.004 Mean euphausiid areal density (g/m2) 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2000 30m krill 1500 200m krill 1000 500 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Figure 46. Blue whale (top) and euphausiid (bottom) densities in the core ACCESS study area (lines 1-7), 2004-15. Conclusions In 2015, the ACCESS partnership completed its 12th year of monitoring, with a total of 43 cruises to date. While the transition to the upwelling season in 2015 was on-time, warm water conditions prevailed during the spring and summer. Nutrients and primary production were low. While the June 2015 acoustics results showed high euphausiid abundance, euphausiids were smaller and less abundant for the year. The low ocean productivity led to low to moderate numbers of seabirds observed. Similar to the acoustics results for euphausiids, whale abundance was highest in June then declined through the remainder of the year. Although our study region is influenced by localized upwelling, extreme coast-wide events also have an effect on this region’s productivity. NOAA declared El Niño conditions were present in March 2015 through spring 2016 (at the time this report was being written). In addition, an unprecedented warm water event named “The Blob” began in the Gulf of Alaska in 2014 and extended down the coast of North America to Baja by the summer of 2015. The ACCESS dataset has illustrated the responses to these conditions through oceanographic measurements, estimating prey availability, and monitoring the distribution and abundance of top marine predators. ACCESS data have also captured observations of unusual species (e.g. common dolphins, which are rarely found north of Southern California), presence species last observed during the 82/83 El Niño event (e.g. pelagic red crab), and the absence of typical species (e.g. Pacific white-sided dolphins). In combination with regional efforts documenting other unusual events (e.g. juvenile common murre die-off, juvenile California sea lion strandings), managers have used ACCESS data to understand how the marine ecosystem is responding to changing ocean conditions. ACCESS data help us gauge the severity of large scale phenomena (e.g. The Blob, El Niño) on our local marine resources. This dataset demonstrates the importance of long term monitoring to evaluate annual and interannual trends over variable ocean conditions. Climate change is bringing unprecedented changes in temperature, sea level rise, and ocean chemistry, making long-term datasets critical to monitoring changes in marine protected areas, sanctuaries, and beyond. The ACCESS data is being used to provide timely, relevant ecosystem data for management issues in our national marine sanctuaries. In recent years, ACCESS data have been used to: 1) inform ship strike reduction efforts in the San Francisco shipping lanes, resulting in a voluntary speed reduction request to large ships in 2014 and 2015; 2) help reduce wildlife impacts (including whale entanglements) by targeting the removal of out-of-season crab pots in 2015; 3) document effects to the ecosystem by the anomalous Pacific Ocean conditions in 2014-15, including contributing to the regional effort led by NANOOS to document these responses; 4) develop a regional model to facilitate cost-effective ocean acidification monitoring; and 5) help determine the extent and magnitude of harmful algal blooms, the cause of the 2015 crab fishery closure in California. In addition, ACCESS collaborates with local universities (San Francisco State University, UC Davis), mentors graduate students, and publishes results in peer reviewed scientific journals. The ACCESS science team raises awareness of ocean issues and inspires stewardship of marine resources through the ACCESS website (accessoceans.org), social media (www.facebook.com/ACCESS.Partnership), and regular outreach activities at local science museums (The Exploratorium, California Academy of Sciences). Looking ahead, ACCESS will begin the 13th year of monitoring in 2016 with three cruises planned in May, July, and September. Literature Cited Ainley, D. G., D. W. Anderson, and P. R. Kelly. 1981. Feeding ecology of marine cormorants in southwestern North America. Condor 83: 120-131. Alin S.R., R.A. Feely, A.G. Dickson, J.M. Hernandez-Ayon, L.W. Juranek, M.D. Ohman, R. Goericke. 2012. Robust empirical relationships for estimating the carbonate system in the southern California Current System and application to CalCOFI hydrographic cruise data (2005-2011). Journal of Geophysical Research, 117, C05033, doi:10.1029/2011JC007511. Duncan, B.E., K.D. Higgason, T.H. Suchanek, J. 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