Download The Role of Statistics in Promoting Good

The Role of Statistics in Promoting Good Governance in Nigeria’s Democracy
Adamu Yusuf, Research Department, Central Bank of Nigeria
Email: [email protected], [email protected]
Abstract
The quest for democracy and good governance has been a global phenomenon over
the years and Nigeria which is still green in democracy is not an exception. Evidence
has shown that both in the theoretical and empirical literature, democracy, good
governance and statistics mutually reinforces one another and are supportive of
economic development. In fact, this probably underscores the popular saying that the
worst form of democracy is better than a military regime no matter how good it may
be. The indispensability of statistics for economic development cannot be
overemphasized. Statistics provides the ingredient for planning and policy execution.
It provides the numbers for matching resources with needs, particularly, ensuring
equity and justice. The paper aimed at demonstrating how democracy and good
governance are appraised using statistics in Nigeria. Descriptive statistics was utilised
in exploring this link. The findings suggest that Nigeria‟s democracy has
underperformed in the last decade. The paper recommended a refocused and
coordinated three tiered governance to reduce corruption and ensure an inclusive
sustainable economic growth and development.
Key Words: Democracy, Good governance and Statistics.
1.0 INTRODUCTION
Good government depends on an ability to reasonably exercise power, and to make
good decisions over time, across a spectrum of economic, social, and other issues.
This is in line with the government‟s desire for equitable resource allocation. The
paper appraises the link between democracy and good governance in Nigeria.
Generally, the definition of good governance usually takes into account key
indicators such as: technical and managerial competence, the quality of
organizations, reliability, predictability and the rule of law, accountability,
transparency and open information systems and participation. for all the
aforementioned to be properly harmonized and implemented, data must be gathered,
analyzed, interpreted. One of the contemporary economic issues is whether
democracy, good governance and reliable statistics could engender economic
development especially in developing countries such as Nigeria where democracy is
still green and yet to impact positively as expected on the living standard.
Democracy pertains to the self-rule of politically constituted social groups. Several
elements distinguish a political group from other forms of association: the fact that
the political unit is empowered to force its members through the collection of taxes,
restrictions on the use of property, and the imposition of regulations and laws etc.
The canons of democracy are that all adult members collectivity ought to have the
status of citizens. All citizens ought to have the broadest set of political rights and
liberties possible, compatible with the extension of equal rights to all. When and
where legislation is required, it ought to result from a process which involves the
meaningful expression of interest and preference by all citizens; the legislative
process ought to weight no individual‟s or group‟s preferences more heavily than
those of any other individual or group (equal weight principle).
1.1 Good Governance
The World Bank defines 'governance' as "the means by which power is exercised in
the management of a country's economic and social resources for development" and
'good governance' as synonymous with "sound development management" (cf Potter,
2000: 379). It encompasses a broad sphere of public sector management;
accountability; legal framework for development (reforms); information and
technology; the legitimacy of government; the competence of governments to
formulate appropriate policies, make timely decisions; implement them effectively
and deliver services (cf Potter 2000:379).Good governance is key to a successful
democratization and by extension, economic development. The presumption is that
for an enduring democratization and good governance, basic statistics must be
recognized and internalized.
According to Eyinla (2000), good governance means accountability, security of
human rights and civil liberties, devolution of powers and respect for local autonomy,
which all constitute a challenge to democratic regimes. Good governance is essential
for sustainable development. It is expressed through the quality and effectiveness of
governance. Good governance ensures that political, social and economic priorities
are based on broad consensus in society and that the voices of the poorest and the
most vulnerable are also heard in decision-making over the allocation of development
resources. In its report, Governance for Sustainable Human Development, the UNDP
(1997) highlighted the characteristics of good governance as participation, rule of
law, transparency, responsiveness, consensus orientation, equity, effectiveness and
efficiency, accountability and Strategic vision.
1.2 Democracy
According to Adel (2003), democracy can be understood as an ideology, a concept or
a theory. It is an ideology in so far as „it embodies a set of political ideas that detail the
best possible form of social organization‟. It can therefore be understood as an ideal.
He notes that, to be a democrat is to have faith in people, to believe that people have
inalienable rights to make decisions for themselves, and to be committed to the notion
that all people are equal in some fundamental and essential way. Beetham (1992)
states that the meaning of democracy can be summarized as: “A mode of decisionmaking about collectively binding rules and policies over which the people exercise
control, and the most democratic arrangement is that where all members collectively
enjoy effective equal rights to take part in such decision-making directly - one that is
to say, which realizes to the greatest conceivable degree the principles of popular
control and equality in its exercise”.Thus popular democracy advocates for periodic
change of government through the ballot box, with the popular maxim-one man-onevote.
1.3 statistics
Statistics is the collection, organization, and interpretation of data. It deals with all
aspects of this, including the planning of data collection in terms of the design of
survey and experiments. Statistics plays some vital role in promoting democracy and
good governance. Good statistics improve the transparency and accountability of
policy making. Both transparency and accountability are essential for good
governance. Statistics also play a vital role in poverty reduction and economic
development. The importance of statistics is also recognized in its uses which spans
the design and implementation stages of country policy frameworks, such as Poverty
Reduction Techniques. Statistics are also deployed to monitor. Reliable statistics
describe the reality of people‟s everyday lives, and the picture of society tells us
where the poor are, why they are poor and what their lives are like and will be in
future. This information provides the bases required to develop and monitor effective
development policies which are identified with democracy and good governance. It
also highlights where resources are most needed, and provides the means to track
progress and assess the impact of different policies. Good statistics also improve the
transparency and accountability of policy making, both of which are essential for
good governance, by enabling electorates to judge the success of government policies
and to hold their government to account for those policies, and are also essential to
manage the effective delivery of basic services. Statistics also guide the media and
the civil society groups in appraising and critics of government to keep them in
check.
1.4 Relationship between Statistics and Governance/Democracy
An attempt to understand the nexus among democracy, good governance and statistics
in promoting economic development have produced divergent views. For scholars of
liberal dispositions, statistics, democracy, good governance and development are
inextricably linked, with emphasis on good governance as the link between them
(World Bank, 1992). The centrality of good governance to the whole process has been
well recognized. Democracy has become the most fashionable form of governance in
the world. In all societies of the world today, the issue is not which political system is
pertinent or appropriate but rather when society will become democratized. By linking
good governance to sustainable human development, emphasizing principles such as
accountability, participation and the respect for human rights, the resolution stands as
an implicit endorsement of the rights-based approach to development.
2.0 RESULS/FINDINGS
The Nigeria‟s democratic dispensation is over a decade, and to be patriotic is to ask how
well the country has performed given its enormous growth potentials and the practice of
democracy and good governance and how statistics aided in the promotion of good
governance. In the analysis that follows, is how statistics has been used as an indicator
to access good governance up. From the analysis, it was discovered that the current
democratic governance has yielded mixed outcomes in delivering the dividends to
Nigerians. Practically, the performance of Nigeria is gauged using some key economic
and development indicators presented in the table below as well as a review of some
reforms embarked upon during the period to ascertain how well democracy has
delivered good governance to the economy. Poor corporate governance, both in the
public and private sectors have led to high incidence of corruption and inequity in
income distribution.
The real GDP grew since the return to democratic governance from 2.8 per cent in 1999
to 7.9 per cent in 2010, peaking at 10.2 per cent in 2003.The average growth rate was
5.8 per cent during the decade, compared with 3.9 per cent recorded during 19881998.The inflation rate (year-on-year) was 14.5 per cent in 2000, peaked at 23.8 per
cent in 2003 before declining to 11.8 per cent in 2010, reflecting improved monetary
management when compared to periods of high inflation during the military regime.
The balance of payments position as a percentage of GDP, on the average was surplus
during the period of analysis. The average exchange rate depreciated from 92.3 per US
dollar in 1999 to 150.7 per US dollar in 2010.The macroeconomic environment became
very friendly and consequently increased the inflow of foreign capital in the form of
foreign direct and portfolio investments. The period coincided with the second oil
boom, as oil price rose in the global market to a peak of US$145.0 per barrel in July,
2008.
Table 1: Selected Macroeconomic Indicators
INDICATOR
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
Real GDP growth rate
5.4
4.6
3.5
9.57
6.58
6.51
6.0
6.5
6.0
7.0
7.9
AVERA
GE
6.3
inflation(y-on-y)
14.5
16.5
12.2
13.9
15.4
17.9
8.5
6.6
15.1
13.9
11.8
13.3
Growth in M2
48.1
27.0
21.6
24.97
12.26
34.61
43.1
44.2
57.8
17.5
6.7
30.7
Current account
balance/GDP
FDI(US$ billion)
15.7
4.7
0.7
6.95
17.62
28.23
25.3
16.8
13.7
7.9
1.5
12.6
1.1
1.2
1.9
2.0
1.86
4.98
13.9
5.6
5.8
N/A
N/A
4.3
External reserves
(US$billion)
Exchange rate (end-period)
9.9
10.4
7.6
7.47
16.95
28.3
42.3
51.3
53.0
42.4
32.3
27.0
101.7
111.9
121.0
129.4
133.5
132.15
128.2
117.9
132.5
149.58
128.0
External debt(US$ billion)
2.8
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.5
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.0
2.4
150.
7
2.3
Source: CBN Annual Report 2010
Consequently, the country earned huge foreign exchange from crude oil sales that
translated to a high accretion to external reserves. External reserves grew to US$42.4
billion in 2009 before falling to US$32.3 billion in 2010. The debt stock was US$28.1
billion in 1999 and peaked at US$35.9 billion in 2004. Nigeria exited Paris club debt in
2006 after fulfilling all conditions including the payment of US$12.0 billion. Due to
prudent management, Nigeria also paid off its balance of London debts. As at December
2009, therefore, Nigeria‟s total stock of external debt declined to US$2.4 billion.
Table 2- Composition of Exports
Countries
Developing Countries
Malaysia
Indonesia
Jamaica
Philippines
Bangladesh
Nigeria
Venezuela
Sri Lanka
Kenya
South Korea
Togo
Mexico
India
Brazil
China (excl. Hong Kong)
Developed Countries
United Kingdom
United States
Japan
Export as a %
of GDP
% share of primary
commodities
% share of manufactured
goods
110.0
40.7
19.6
53.2
11.9
48.7
27.2
33.0
15.9
37.8
25.0
29.0
8.3
9.4
23.1
20
46
30
59
9
99
88
25
77
9
82
15
24
46
12
80
54
70
41
91
1
12
75
23
91
18
85
76
54
88
19.8
7.9
10.2
17
17
6
83
83
94
2.6
The various sectors of the economy are aggregated into the primary; secondary and
tertiary (table 2). In developing countries, the primary sector is expected to dominate. But
as the economy develops, the primary sector declines, while that of secondary will tend to
increase. The tertiary sector will dominate in an advanced economy. In Nigeria,
Agriculture dominates the economy with respect to contribution to GDP and employment
(64.0 per cent). The secondary sector contributes the least (6.4 per cent), while the
services sector comes second (29.1)
Chart1
Table 3: Sectoral Contribution to Real GDP by Sectors: 2000-2010
SECTORAL GROUP
Primary Sector
Agriculture
Crude Petroleum
Other Mining
Total Primary
Secondary Sector
Manufacturing/Utilities
Construction
Total Secondary
Tertiary Sector
Services
Wholesale/Retail
Total Tertiary
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
aver
age
35.83
32.45
0.29
61.1
35.58
32.65
0.31
61.1
35.85
29.75
0.31
61.1
41.01
26.53
0.25
61.1
40.98
25.72
0.26
61.1
41.19
24.26
0.27
61.1
41.72
21.85
0.28
61.1
42.2
19.6
0.29
61.1
42.5
17.35
0.3
61.1
41
16.3
0.3
61.1
40.9
15.8
0.3
57.0
39.9
23.8
0.29
64.0
4.24
1.95
6.91
4.34
2.09
6.43
4.61
2.11
6.72
3.57
3.44
7.01
3.68
3.58
7.26
3.79
3.58
7.37
3.91
1.6
7.45
4.02
1.7
7.51
4
1.8
4
4.2
1.9
4.75
4.2
2
6.2
4.1
2.3
6.4
12.11
13.11
25.22
12.18
12.85
25.03
14.14
13.22
27.36
11.36
12.54
23.9
10.43
12.9
23.33
11.63
13.75
25.38
15.7
14.9
27.07
16.2
16.2
28.97
16.8
17.4
16.24
17.4
18.1
38.58
18.1
18.7
36.8
14.2
14.9
29.1
Sectoral analysis revealed that on the average the agricultural sector grew at 5.7 per cent
during the period 1999-2010, while industrial performance was much lower at an average
of 2.8 per cent, with negative growth rates in some years. Indeed, manufacturing capacity
utilisation rate was 55.5%, indicating underutilisation of installed capacity. In contrast,
the services sector witnessed a tremendous growth during the period, from 4.3 percent in
1999 to 11.9 per cent in 2010.
In the period under review economic growth has been impressive. However, the
incidence of poverty has increased from 54.6 per cent in 2009 to 69.0 per cent in 2010,
indicating that the growth in GDP has not contributed to growing household wealth that
should bring down the poverty level.
However, other development indicators showed that democracy has contributed to
improvements in some indicators of development. Life expectancy at birth has improved
from 45.6 years in 1999 to 54.0 years in 2010. Women participation in politics has also
increased. The proportion of seats held by women for example in the public office
increased from about 10 per cent in 2001 to almost 35 per cent in 2010. The ratio of girls
to boys in primary and secondary education significantly improved from 81.0 per cent in
1999 to 85.1 per cent in 2007. This is a good achievement and in line with the objective
of New Partnership for African Development (NEPAD) and the Millennium
Development Goals, 2015. In terms of security of lives and property the period under
review, has witnessed serious deterioration. There is widespread fear and miscarriage of
justice so that it is safe to infer that democracy has failed in this respect. Land reforms
which should unlock the potentials of the rural areas has also progressed slowly.
3.0 Conclusion
The descriptive statistics employed in analysing how the Nigerian democracy has fared
show mixed outcomes with respect to the chosen performance indicators. Whereas on the
economic front, the macro economy has grown more rapidly compared to the decade
before the period under review, the other social indicators especially, of security, poverty
and employment have been less impressive. However, one clear gain from the current
democracy is the steady commitment to reforms which if sustained will eventually lead
the country out of the woods.
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