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Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
“Advancing human security through knowledge-based
approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental
risks“
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop:
International Dialogue on Migration - Bangkok, 2007
Impact of Gradual Environmental
Change on Migration: a Global
perspective of Trends and Solutions
Prof. Dr. Ing. Janos J. Bogardi
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Starting Statements
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Climate has never been stable but we did not really
notice.
• Land degradation started with agriculture, irrigation
several thousand years ago.
• Urbanisation was seen as a sign of development.
• Migration is a steady component of human history.
…but things are spiraling out of control
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th Assessment Report
The Physical Science Basis - February 2007
Source:
IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Formally approved at the 10th Session of Working
Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007, p.6
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th Assessment Report
The Physical Science Basis - February 2007
Source:
IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Formally approved at the 10th Session of Working
Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007, p.3
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
IPCC - Contribution of Working Group 1 to 4th Assessment Report
The Physical Science Basis - February 2007
Source:
IPCC 2007 Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science Basis - Summary for Policy Makers. Contribution of Working Group 1 to the
Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Formally approved at the 10th Session of Working
Group I of the IPCC, Paris, February 2007, p.15
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Millenium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• 15 of 24 ecosystem services are degraded or utilised in
an unsustainable way, mainly by humans for the supply
of specific services.
• This could accelerate the degradation of ecosystems scientific evidence still required.
• The poor and especially rural poor are suffering most
by the decline in ecosystem services.
• 2 billion people living in dry regions are extremely
vulnerable to the loss of ecosystem services.
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005
Some Conclusions on Drylands
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• 10 to 20 percent of drylands are already degraded.
• Pressure is increasing on dryland ecosystems for
providing services such as food, and water for humans
& livestock, irrigation, and sanitation.
• Climate change is likely to increase water scarcity in
regions that are already under water stress.
• Droughts are becoming more frequent and their
continuous reoccurrence can overcome the coping
mechanisms of communities.
Source: MA. 2005: Ecosystems and Human Well-being: Desertification Synthesis. World
Resources Institute, Washington, DC.
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Global Desertification Vulnerability
Source: USDA-NRCS. http://soils.usda.gov/use/worldsoils/mapindex/desert.html
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
The Unstoppable Trend of Urbanisation
• The accelerating spiral
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Average size of the world’s 100 largest cities
Year
Population
Rate of Increase
1800
200,000
3.5%
1900
700,000
2000
6,200,000
~9.0%
?
In 2000 16 cities had more
than 10 million inhabitants:
4% of the world population
• How many people must remain in the rural environment?
• Good Estimate: % of people needed to produce our food
(could go down to 5%??)
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Income in small cities - Russia
Average income per capita in relation to
minimum subsistence level 2003
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
300
250
200
188
in %
159
150
100
107
117
50
Balakhna
Bor
Kstovo
Pavlovo
Cities
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Income in major cities - Russia
Average income per capita in relation
to minimum subsistence level 2003
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
300
300
251
250
256
200
in %
150
100
50
Kazan
RF 2001:
average income 2877,3 r
MSL: 1500 r
Nizhny
Novgorod
Samara
Cities
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
swift natural hazard events
climate change variability and change
Environmental Degradation
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Human Security is at Stake
Societal activities
Economic
Community
Food
Political
Health
Personal
Environmental
Sustainable Human Development
Freedom from Want
Freedom from Fear
Freedom from Hazard Impacts
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
The Widening Gaps: Pull and Push
Gap in Per Capita Income
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Year
Richest
Countries
Poorest
Countries
1960
30
:
1
1990
60
:
1
2000
80
:
1
Life Expectancy Differences
Year
Richest
Countries
Poorest
Countries
1998
78
45
2002
81 (Japan)
40 (Malawi)
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Migration!
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Coping with global inequalities
• Voluntary or forced?
• How far environmentally driven?
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Tracing the Tracks:
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Where are the migrants coming from?
• Where will the migrants be coming from?
• Where are they going?
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Net Emigration
Territory size shows the relative quantity of net
emigration in all territories (emigration less immigration).
Source:
SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006, Net Emigration,
http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map18_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 February 2007
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Net Immigration
Territory size shows the relative quantity of net
immigration in all territories (immigration less emigration).
Source:
SASI Group (University of Sheffield), Newman (University of Michigan) 2006,Net Immigration
http://www.worldmapper.org/posters/worldmapper_map17_ver5.pdf, accessed 15 Feb 2007
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
World Wealth Levels per Capita
Source:
WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p4, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
World Wealth Levels per Capita
Source:
WIDER 2006 Wider Angle, No. 2, p6, World Institute for Development Economics Research, UNU, Finland
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
World Population Density and
Potential Sea Level Rise up to 1 metre
Africa: Nigeria, Cameroon, Gabon, Somalia, Kenya, Tanzania
Asia: Russia, Vietnam, India, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Indonesia
Australia & West Pacific: Papua New Guinea, Australia, Fiji and Sth Pacific Islands
Europe & Middle East: Netherlands, Greenland, Ukraine and UK coastline
South America: Venezuela, Guyan, Suriname, French Guiana, Brazil and Chile
Source of sea-level rise date:
http://www.geo.arizona.edu/dgesl/research/other/climate_cha
nge_and_sea_level/sea_level_rise/sea_level_rise_old.htm#i
mages
North America: USA, Canada and Cuba
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
The “guiding lights”
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Target zones of internal displacements
and international migration
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Migrations due to Mixture of
“Push” and “Pull” Factors
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Some root causes include (Boswell and Crisp, 2004;
Hatton and Williamson, 2003; Schwartz and Notoni, 1994):
– Economic factors (poverty, unemployment, wage
disparities)
– Social factors (poor welfare or education;
demography)
– Environmental factors (degradation of
ecosystems)
– Degraded security conditions (disrespect for
human rights)
– Existence of migrant networks
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Migration:
Some Potential Environmental Drivers
• Droughts and loss of land productivity can become
important factors triggering the movement of people
from drylands to other areas (MA, 2005), particularly
once coping mechanisms and adaptation strategies
are impaired by the loss of ecosystem services.
• Sea level rise and environmental calamities may
trigger migration.
• Disasters of “natural” origin may prompt people to
leave.
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Debate over the Concept of
Environmental Migrants / Refugees
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Critics (not exhaustive list):
– Multiple “push” & “pull” factors so why highlight the
environmental component?
– Poor definition of what is an Environmental
Migrant/Refugee
– Risk of watering-down 1951 Convention relating to
the Status of Refugees
– Use the argument put forward by others that
desertification, land degradation, climate change
and sea level rise are not as serious problems as
characterised by certain “lobbies”
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Adopting a Precautionary Principle
• “…estimates and projections of environmental
refugees are based almost entirely on anecdotal
evidence (…) [but] it is important not to trivialize the
role environmental change and resource depletion
may play in population movement.” (Lonergan and Swain 1999:2)
• Actions above all are needed to tackle the issue:
– Actions related to the reduction of desertification rates and
climate change (considering all the dimensions) and when
possible implement restoration and adaptation strategies
– Policies and actions that deal with the immediate and/or
forthcoming issue of environmental migration / refugees
– The two need to be further developed in parallel
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Suggestion: Establish an Intergovernmental
Panel on Land Degradation
• Concept along the lines of the IPCC:
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
– Assess scientific, technical and socio-economic
information to understand:
• risks linked to human-induced land degradation
• potential impacts
• options for adaptation and mitigation
– Scientific approach, not advocacy
– Regular assessments of state of knowledge on our
lands and their soils including the social implications
Source:
Vlek. 2005: Nothing begets nothing. The creeping disaster of land degradation. InterSecTions 1,
UNU-EHS
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Environmentally motivated migrants
“pre-empting the worst”
– Individuals “may” leave a deteriorating environment
which could still be rehabilitated
– Both temporary and permanent displacement /
migration
– Examples: depopulation of old industrial and mining
areas, most rural exoduses
– Case: rural exodus from Northeast Brazil to Sao Paolo
due to long dry spells
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants
Cont’d…
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Environmentally forced migrants
“avoiding the worst”
– Individuals “have to” leave due to loss of livelihood
– Mainly permanent displacement / migration
– Examples: displacement or migration due to sea-level
rise or loss of topsoil
– Case: out migration from the Sahel zone of Africa due
to desertification
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Proposed Categories of Environmental Migrants
Cont’d…
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Environmental refugees
“fleeing the worst”
– Individuals “flee” rather than “leave”
– Includes disaster refugees
– Both temporary and permanent displacement /
migration
– Resource base (ecosystem) may be severely affected
– Examples: displacement or migration due to floods,
extensive drought
– Case: exodus due to Hurricane Katrina in New
Orleans 2005
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Five Pronged Approach
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Science:
– Establish and implement programs to allow a better
understanding between the cause-effects mechanisms
between degradation of ecosystems and social
systems
– Develop proper definitions of environmental migrations,
environmental migrant/refugee.
– Provide long-term, sustained funding for research.
• Awareness:
– Raise knowledge-based public and political
awareness and its social, economic, environmental
dimensions
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Five Pronged Approach (cont‘d)
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• Legislation :
– Establish and implement a framework of
recognition of environmental migrants such as in a
specific Convention or in parts of
Intergovernmental Environmental Treaties
• Humanitarian aid:
– Empower the United Nations system and other
major assistance organisations to provide aid to
environmental migrants / refugees
• Institutional:
– Devise concepts and establish institutions that are
able to assist the flux of environmental migrants
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Migration: a new look at an old problem
within the UN system
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• 1994: Re-thinking of migrations originated at the
International Conference on Population and
Development.
• 2003: High-Level Dialogue on international migrations
and development.
• 2003: Launch of Global Commission on International
Migration.
• 2005: Establishment of a high-level inter-institutional
group to ensure effective institutional response to
international migration.
UN, 2006
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Migration: a new look at an old problem
within the UN system – cont’d
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
• 2006: Appointment of Special Representative on
International Migration and Development.
• 2006: Outcome of the High-Level Dialogue - proposal
by the Secretary-General to establish a consultative
Forum to offer Governments a venue to discuss issues
related to international migration and development.
• 2007: IOM – UNFPA Expert Workshop: International
Dialogue on Migration – Bangkok, 22-23 February.
• 2007: UNU, UNHCR, GEF-UNDP information event on
“Environmental Refugees: the Forgotten Migrants” in
New York, UN Headquarters, 16 May.
UN, 2006
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007
Institute for Environment & Human Security
United Nations University
Appeal
Enhance the ongoing
international debate on
migration with the
environmental component!
Thank you.
Expert Workshop on International Dialogue on Migration. Bangkok, Thailand. 22-23 Feb 2007