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Introduction to Microeconomic Lecture 1 & 2: January 11, 2011 Based on material in Chapters 1 and 2 Curtis, Irvine and Begg Dr. William McCarten Department of Economics Trent University Room 343 Peter Gzowski College Evaluation This will be as follows: Quizzes (3) Assignments (best 5 of 8) Mid-Term Test Final Examination 15% 28% 21% 36% Lyryx you will need internet access Lyryx Website. Register at www.lyryx.com. There are also 8 assignments and best 5 will be used to calculate grade. This course uses Lyryx for assignments. Lyryx 1. Go to the site and click on the registration link. 2. Complete the Personal Information section. 3. Select your institution as the Education Institution. 4. Under the Login Information section, type in your desired user name and password. 5. Click � Then complete the Course Selection section by clicking on the drop down boxes to Available by Friday Learning Outcomes 4 By the end of this chapter you should learn: Resource allocation and scarcity The what, how and for whom issues Dynamic aspects of resource allocation Production possibilities and opportunity costs The roles of markets and governments in the allocation problem Positive economics and normative economics The economist’s belief system Distinctions between Micro and Macro economics ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg What is Economics? 5 ECONOMICS ... is the study of how society decides: What goods and services should be produced and in what quantity How to go about producing them Which techniques of production to employ For whom should they be produced The distribution of the wealth and income Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Exploring the What, How and for Whom ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg 6 An Increase in the Price of Oil Affects 7 What to produce by firms less oil-intensive products How to produce less oil-intensive techniques (example wind, Nuclear stations) For whom to produce oil producers have more purchasing power (that is command over global resources) power, importers have less Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.1 ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Resource Allocation based on World Bank Statistics Table 1.1 World Population and Income 2005 Country Group Nearlyper 80%capita of the(Can world’s Income $) output of goods and services is consumed by 15% of its population Percentage of World Population Percentage of World Income Poor Middle Rich 580 2640 35131 37 48 15 3 18 79 Ch 1.2 8 Dynamic Resource Allocation Resources allocated unequally around the world Developed countries endowed with much more physical capital and human capital High-growth economies are usually characterized by two key patterns Save and invest Foster institutions and property rights However many poor countries in Asia (China, India, Indonesia have increased saving , investment and growth in last 25 years. Ex India growth 8-9% per year Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. The Production Possibilities Frontier We wish to introduce the Production Possibilities Frontier better known as the PPF. The PPF is a basic workhorse in economics. Important for understanding some basic issues in economics. The PPF shows for each output of one good, the maximum amount of the other good that can be produced with given resources and a given state of technology. The Production Possibility Frontier - What Is It? The description of the best possible combinations of two goods to produce using all of the available resources. Shows the trade-off between more of one good in terms of the other. Assumes: input endowments given, technology given, time given and efficient production. The Production Possibility Frontier (PPF) 12 12 The PPF is a two dimensional graphical device designed to illustrate: Scarcity Tradeoffs (negative slope) Opportunity cost Longer-term economic growth Tradeoffs can be linear or reflect increasing opportunity cost (concave). Why increasing opportunity? ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg The Production Possibility Frontier 13 For each level of the output of one good, the production possibility frontier shows the maximum amount of the other good that can be produced Concave - increasing opportunity cost Linear --constant opportunity cost Illustrated… Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.3 ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Linear Production Possibility Frontier 14 The opportunity cost of providing additional doctors is constant = 4/1 peacekeepers aircraft 4000 A Unattainable Aircraft H NOT Efficient G PPF Doctors Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.3 1000 All points on the PPF are efficient ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. The Production Possibility Frontier 15 The opportunity cost of providing an additional 250 doctors is increasing 4000 A B Jet Aircraft -300 C +250 -400 +250 D H Unattainable Efficient G NOT Efficient PPF is always negatively slopped PPF Doctors Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.3 1000 This PPF has a concave shape ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Opportunity Cost The opportunity cost of an activity is the value of the resources used in that activity when they are measured by what they would have produced when used in their next best alternative. The slope of the Production Possibility Frontier measures the marginal opportunity cost of producing one good in terms of the amount of the other good foregone. A Typical PPF Picture The marginal opportunity cost of guns in terms of butter is increasing as we move down the PPF! Butter just attainable inefficient unattainable just attainable The PPF is typically bowedout or linear. It is not bowed-in Guns PPF Gymnastics Butter PPF new PPF old The PPF is also useful for many other types of questions. Questions about efficiency. Questions about equity. Questions about tax and transfer policy. Questions about composition of output. Questions about growth and productivity. Guns Lecture separation Stop Lecture Micro Jan 11 Start Lecture Micro January 12 The Production Possibility Frontier 20 Expanding the Production Possibilities Canada’s economy has grown for two reasons Greater quantity of productive capital and labour (inputs) Technological improvements much of technology is sourced from foreign countries and used knowledge created in foreign countries. ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.3 Opportunity Cost, Comparative Advantage & Gains21 from Trade (Text) Penelope the plumber and Gordon the gardener are neighbors Each can perform both task with differing efficiencies How can society organize itself in order to gain from such specialization? By using markets Without specialization they expend 11 hours on tasks With specialization Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Beggthey expend 8 hour on tasks ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Comparative Advantage The person with the lower marginal opportunity cost of an activity has the comparative advantage at that activity. This means that the person with the comparative advantage can produce the activity by giving up the smallest amount of the alternative activity. The Role of Markets 23 Markets bring together buyers and sellers of goods and services Price adjustment is the key to ensuring that scarce resources are used to supply goods and services that society wants Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.4 ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Resource Allocation 24 Resource allocation is crucial for a society It is handled in different ways in different societies, e.g.: Command economy Centrally planned All producers and consumers act only on orders Invisible hand (free market ) idea from Adam Smith Wealth of Nations Mixed economy Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.4 ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Market Orientation Sweden Canada USA Cuba 2011 Cuba Command economy Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Relatively free Market economy ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. The Invisible Hand of the Marketplace and “signalling” 26 • High prices characterize goods and services that are relatively scarce • These high prices may induce greater supply over time • • They signal that it may be profitable to produce goods If entrepreneurs direct their resources correspondingly, then the marketplace causes resources to be used where they are highly valued • Self interested suppliers are led by the Invisible Hand of the marketplace Adam Smith terminology Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.4 ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Invisible Hand The invisible hand, Adam Smith’s phrase (1776) , is the assertion that the individual pursuit of self interest within free markets will allocate resources efficiently (move to production possibilities frontier) from society’s viewpoint (p11) Positive and Normative Economics 28 Positive economics deals with objective explanation and predictions e.g. if a tax is imposed on a good, then its price will tend to rise, all other factors held constant Normative economics offers prescriptions based on value judgements e.g. a tax should be imposed on tobacco to discourage smoking Often concerns equity issues (fairness) Story in press on Newfoundland oil and gas eligibility for an federal Atlantic Canada Tax Credit. Issues of impact on investment allocation (efficiency) versus “fairness”. Press journalist reach for normative vocabulary when the right first question to ask is what are the positive economic impacts. Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 1.5 ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Box 1.4 Public Policy on Kyoto Protocol Global Warming Does microeconomics have anything to offer in designing public policy to deal with global warming? Stern (Nick Stern ex-World Bank chief Economist ) Review , written for UK Government argues yes. See page 15 We will explore role of welfare economics in evaluating alternative policy instruments to achieve carbon abatement in Chapter 5 Preview More Box 1.4 Public Policy on Kyoto Protocol Global Warming 1) 2) Canada committed itself to a 6 percent reduction in greenhouse gas (GHGs) , but by 2008 Canada had increased its emissions by 1/4 above its 1990 level, despite the reducing the GHG intensity of GDP i.e is the amount of GHG emitted per unit of output produced. Big problem. Tragedy of Commons (page 15 column 1) ) Also Benefits from GHG reduction are spread around the world . Normative Issues Fairness Across Countries . Developing counties often claim that it is the responsibility of the rich economies to take measures to reduce GHGS Two Options proposed. Discussed in chapter 5 pages 104 - 108. carbon tax system of pollution permits that could be traded among polluters permits in the market. By restricting the number of permits, the permitted level of pollution could meet a given lower level. An Economist’s Credo (Irvine) 31 Incentives matter Markets and Trade Play a Key Role in Improving Economic WellBeing Most of society is better off than in a non-market economy Most economists believe that even the poor benefit from trade and globalization Property Rights Are Vital to Development Gives an incentive to work and produce Public Policy can Improve Well-Being In cases of market failure, which will come up later in this course Marginal Thinking (Incremental) Most economic choices are not made on an all-or-nothing basis, but rather at the margin A little more of a little less? Atlantic Tax Credit impact on Investment (∆%)on East Coast©2010 OffMcGraw-Hill Shore Oil andLtd. ChapterIncremental 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ryerson Gas. Micro and Macro Economics 32 Microeconomics… Offers detailed treatment of individual economic decisions about particular commodities The pricing of public transportations is a microeconomic issue Macroeconomics… Emphasizes the interactions in the economy as a whole Gross domestic product, the aggregate price level and unemployment are all macroeconomic issues Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter 1 Summary Economics analyzes what, how, and for whom society produces in the context of scarcity The allocation of resources to competing needs is also a dynamic problem Save and invest today for higher economic growth in the future The production possibility frontier shows the maximum amount of one good that can be produced for a given output of the other It shows the productive capacity of the economy The PPF reflects the law of increasing opportunity cost and production efficiency requires that economy produce at a point on the PPF Production efficiency require that an economy produce at a point on the PPF Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter Summary 34 Economies rely heavily on markets to allocate resources The concept of comparative advantage is central to determining the economic problem The command economy, free market economy and mixed economy Positive economics and normative economics Economists have a set of guiding beliefs or a credo Microeconomics and Macroeconomics ©2010 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter 1 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Chapter 2 Curtis, Irvine & Begg The Tools of Economic Analysis Microeconomic Principles Learning Outcomes Topics Theories, models, and reality Data and data types Index numbers Models and data Testing, accepting, and rejecting theories The Canadian data hunt Criticisms of economics: Is it a science like physics because it follows the scientific method? ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Models and Theories 37 A theory is a logical view of the world Theories should have predictions that could be disproved . Famius comparison A model formalizes the theory Both help to organize our economic thinking and understand empirical relationships Are frameworks based on simplifying assumptions? Map on a scale of 1 to 1 would be of no use. Economic Models are like maps drown to useful scales. Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.1 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. DATA Data are pieces of evidence about behaviour They help us quantify theoretical relationships They help us test our models or our beliefs. How do we test. Types of data Time-series data Cross-section data A one-to-one correspondence between values and chronological time A sequence of values at different point of time A one-to-one correspondence between values and a set of individuals or groups at one point in time A “snapshot” Longitudinal data Follow the same individuals or groups over time Ex: corporate return Involves both time-series data and cross-sectional data Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.2 Examples… ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Time-Series Data 39 Table 2.1 House Prices and Price Indexes in North Vancouver Consistency in Time Series is Vital Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.2 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Graphical Representation of Data 40 Always inspect the axes to determine patterns Different values on the axes can have very different visual impacts Consider the following two representations of the data from table 2.1, Col. 2 Horizontal X axis Vertical Y axis. Logorithmic scale on Y Vertical axis has property? Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.2 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Graphical Representation of Data 41 Figure 21.a: North Vancouver House Prices 1999-2009 in Thousands of Dollars Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.2 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Graphical Representation of Data 42 Figure 2.1b: North Vancouver House Prices 1999-2009 in Thousands of Dollars Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.2 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Cross-Sectional Data 43 Table 2.2 Unemployment by Country (%) Defined by year Data Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.2 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Index Number 44 An index number expresses data relative to a given base value Employed to show % changes realized over a time period Example… Choose reference point Set the price value equal to 100 Table 2.1, use 1999 as base year Base year index value: = $330,000 x (100/$330,000) = 100 Index value in 2003 = $395,000 x (100/$330,000) = 119.7 Percentage change 1999 to 2003 = (119.7-100)/100 = 19.7% Ch 2.3 Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Index Number 11 Index numbers as average Weighted average of the component price indexes Example: Fuel price index = oil price index x 0.5 + natural gas price index x 0.3 + coal price index x 0.2 Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. 45 Index Number Consumer Price Index (CPI) Constructed to measure changes in the overall cost of living – the inflation rate Nominal and real variables Nominal variables reflect the dollar price of a good or service Real variables are nominal variables adjusted for inflation Real price index shows how much the price has risen or fallen relative to the overall rate of inflation Percentage change in real house price index = (Nominal Index/CPI – 1) x 100 Apply the data from 1999 - 2004 (Table 2.1) = (131.52/110.01 – 1) x 100 = 19.55% Quality and Technological Change Measuring Change in Economic Variables Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.3 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Economic Models and Analysis 47 Example: Health Canada: Model of the Effect of Smoking Focusing on key elements Smoking = f(price of cig., peer pressure, messages, price of the “patch”) Sale of Cable Services = f (price of cable services, price of substitute satellite dish, price of computer and internet and downloads, income of purchasers) Evidence… Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.4 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Scatter Diagrams so Scatter Plot or First Step to Identifying Causal Relations Each point is an observation on x and y for a particular time period. With x on the vertical axis and y on the horizontal axis The reason that economists often use a scatter diagram in their analysis is that it reveals whether there may be an obvious relationship between two variables. But because Economists can’t conduct laboratory experiments by holding other variables constant caution is important in determining the exact nature of the relationship . An Economic Model in Graphical Form 49 Table 2.3: Tobacco Sales and Prices, Canada 1996-2006 Note that at higher prices, quantity smoked is lower Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.4 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. An Economic Model in Graphical Form 50 Data can be represented graphically… Figure 2.3: Price and Quantity of Cigarettes, Canada 1996-2005 The line that has been fitted through these points suggests an empirical association (on average) between the two variables • Called a regression line • Indicates a negative or inverse relationship Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.4 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Scatter diagram with Video Life expectancy and Gross Domestic Product per capita How can scatter diagrams help us in analyzing economic relations and developing models? In 1809 all countries of the world had a life expectancy under 40 years and an income per person (capita) less than 3.000 dollar per year. Since then the world has changed but it was not until after the second world war that most countries started to improve. Only in 1970 to 1990 to Asian countries begin to move dramatically to high life expectancy Gapminder 100 Sweden 60 40 (years) Life expectancy 81 years 80 1 Population (millions) 100 20 1000 0 200 $ 2000 $ 20 000 $ Income per person (comparable dollars per year) Interpreting Linear Relationship Intercept Slope = 280/70 = -4.0 Price Index Define the line: P =280-4Q Intercept reflects the value of P when Q is zero P = 280 - 4 x 0 = 280 Slope shows the effect of 280 change in Q on change in P 1 unit change in Q 4 units change in P Downward, negatively sloped Ch 2.4 Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Sales in Billions 70 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Testing understanding of linear relationship Consider a negatively sloped linear line in a graph where the vertical axis represents variable Y and the horizontal axis represents variable X. If the vertical intercept is 10 and the slope is -0.5, the correct equation is: A) B) C) D) Y = 20 – 2X X = 20 – 2Y X = 10 – 0.5Y Y = 10 – 2X Non-Linear Relationships driving deaths by age55 groups (grouped data) Related Driver Fatality Rate by Age, Canada 2006 Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Other Things Equal Other things equal assumption… • Graphs are simple two dimensional representations • Economic behaviour is influenced by many variable not in the two dimensions • Example: • Smoking bans in public places Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.4 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Theories and Evidence: Accepting and Rejecting Theories Scatter diagrams help us to confront economic theory with empirical reality Econometrics takes this further using statistical techniques Evidence may allow us to reject a theory Or to accumulate support for it but not what Economists can not conduct laboratory experiments like the natural sciences (physics ) Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg 2.5 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. The Great Canadian Data Hunt 58 CANSIM database Canadian Socio-economic Information Management System CHASS is gull database E-STAT is the user friendly version Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.6 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. E-STAT ∑ -STAT is an education resource designed by Statistics Canada and made available to Universities. Uses 450,000 current CANSIM time series . Lets you build graphs and charts. Popular Criticisms of Economics and Economists Frequent critiques of the profession include the following… ‘No two economists ever agree’ ‘Models in economics are too simple to be considered realistic’ ‘People are not as mercenary as economists portray them’ ‘Actions of human beings cannot be reduced to scientific laws’ Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg Ch 2.7 ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Learning Outcomes 61 By the end of this chapter you should learn: Theories, models, and reality Data and data types Index numbers Models and data Testing, accepting, and rejecting theories The Canadian data hunt Criticisms of economists Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter Summary 62 A theory is a logical view of the world A model is a simplified framework DATA are essential for economic analysis The three primary types of data are: Time-series data Cross-section data Longitudinal data Index numbers: Express data values relative to a given base value CPI is a broad index of cost of living Basket of good & services Nominal and real price variables Scatter diagrams show the relationship between two variables. The regression line summarizes the average relationship between the two variables . Linear regression =straight line Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Chapter Summary Econometrics is the science of developing and understanding the precise relationship between variables Other things being equal assumption Latin Term Ceterus paribus A straight-line equation is completely characterized by an intercept and a slope To understand how the economy works we need theories and facts Theories consist of generalizations ©2007 McGraw-Hill Ryerson Ltd. Economists are subject to criticisms Chapter 2 - Curtis, Irvine & Begg