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BEYOND ACCEPTANCE OR REJECTION: RETHINKING STRATEGY TO ADDRESSING THE INFORMAL SECTOR WITH LESSONS FOR THE FEDERAL CAPITAL CITY (FCC), ABUJA By Professor Adamu Ahmed FNITP Department of Urban and Regional Planning Ahmadu Bello University Zaria – Nigeria. Paper presented at the workshop on the Review of the FCC Master Plan, organized by the FCT Chapter of the Nigerian Institute of Planners (NITP) held on Thursday 30th of March, 2017at the CBN Training Institute, Abuja. INTRODUCTION The Informal Sector has received widespread and growing attention in the literature relating to perceived notions of value and liability (Carbreath ,2015; Feige, 1989, Hart, 1971). The view of the Sector as a major contributor to the economies of most developing countries has been established from studies of the World Bank (2005, 2016, & 2009) and the International Labor Organization (ILO), just as other studies have stigmatized the sector for being unproductive, chaotic and difficult to manage. As expected, many of the policy responses to the sector have either been towards enablement or coercion, both often producing undesirable outcomes. The growing prominence to the subject of informality and the contradictions of emergent policies raise concerns for new perspectives and approach to addressing the constraints and opportunities of the sector. What should be the concern of this new policy? And what role would be expected of planners? This paper contributes to this debate with particular reference to Abuja, the Federal Capital City in two ways. First by raising concerns on the degree of significance to which coercion or accommodation would work for the informal sector. The second explores the argument that informal developments and activities are symptoms of defective economies, and policy focus should as much be about creating robust and comprehensive economic growth rather than addressing symptoms. The theoretical footing of the position argued in the paper lie within the traditional view of the modernization theory, that the unorganized sector with its surplus labor will gradually disappear as the surplus labor gets absorbed in the organized sector. The paper is structured into three parts. 1 The first explores the literature on the informal sector regarding value and nuisance and the second, the conceptual basis for the need to rethink approach. The third examines the enabling factors of informality linked to the quality of urban planning, and how planners would be required to respond. The last part relates the arguments raised to the FCC, Abuja with lessons from Dubai. UNDERSTANDING THE CONCEPT OF THE INFORMAL SECTOR The original use of the term ‘informal sector’ is attributed to the economic development model put forward by W. Arthur Lewis in the early 1950’s.The later usage of the term was by Hart (1971) following a study of Ghana. The concept is generally used to describe employment or livelihood activity primarily within the developing world that falls outside of the sector. The ‘traditional sector’, the “survival” sector, the ‘unregulated sector’, etc, are all terms that are used to describe the informal sector, to encompass production activities of small size, including handicrafts, which have a “domestic or unorganized character” and may also be part of the “non-monetary” sector of the economy (Hugon, 1990). Bromley (1978) considers the sector to be the spin-off of the dual economy literature, originating with Lewis (1955), which conceptualized economic development as the emergence and growth of the manufacturing sector (modern) through the absorption of labor being freed from agriculture (the ‘traditional’ sector) due to the more efficient means of production in the former. Whereas the dual economy (the ‘moderntraditional’ dichotomy) literature mainly addressed the sectoral differences in terms of the technology applied, a somewhat later related literature focused more on the organization of the sectors (Sethuraman, 1976). Participants in the informal economy generally lack employment security, work and social security. Definitions of the informal sector also imply a lack of choice or agency in involvement, and participation may also be driven by a wish to avoid regulation or taxation. This may manifest as unreported employment, hidden from the state for tax, social security or labour law purposes, but legal in all other aspects. Edgar (1989) further sees the informal economy from the perspective of non2 compliant behavior to an institutional set of rules. While Feige (1989) also argues that circumvention of labor market regulations specifying minimum wages, working conditions, social security, unemployment and disability benefits as giving rise to an informal economy that deprives some workers of deserved benefits while conveying undeserved benefits to others. The term Informal Sector is also useful in describing and accounting for forms of shelter or living arrangements that are similarly unlawful, unregulated, or not afforded protection of the state. In their conditions, informal developments are generally considered to be poor quality of depressed value and unhealthy for habitation. Because informal developments are considered ‘illegal’, most are of temporary materials. The informal sector is largely characterized by several qualities including; ease of entry, lack of stable employer-employee relationships, a small scale of operations, and skills gained outside of a formal education. The type of work that makes up the informal economy is diverse, particularly in terms of capital invested, technology used, and income generated. The spectrum ranges from self-employment or unpaid family labor to street vendors, shoe shiners, and junk collectors. Agriculture Retail Small-scale farmers Financial Services Thrift cooperative societies (ajo, esusu) Money lenders Accountants Informal Economy Street vendors Road-side sellers Hawkers Caterers Education Private tutors O ther Service Providers Transport Make-up artists Photographers Fashion designers Event planners Artisans Technicians Fig 1: Example of Informal Sector Activities Private-hire taxi drivers Tricycle operators (marwa) Motorcycle operators (okada) Source: Informal Economic Survey by Philips Consulting THE VALUE VERSUS NUISANCE DEBATE 3 Most literature view the Informal sector favorably based on its positive spin offs especially in the developing countries. It is also considered by far, to be the most important source of employment as the formal sector has struggled to generate sufficient employment. While initially the informal sector was viewed as more or less a ‘residual sector’ for those unable to find employment in the formal sector, recent empirical research has shown the contrary. Charmes (1990) has shown evidence that the informal sector worker generally contributes to GDP over and beyond the minimum wage, and that productivity in the sector is much higher than average per capita GNP in most 3rd world economies. In many countries also, the Informal sector is the primary source of employment for workers, particularly for those that are relatively disadvantaged in the labor market. The sector is generally seen to be larger in sub-Saharan Africa than in other parts of the developing world accounting for up to 80% of non-agricultural employment (Charmes,1990). The share varies across countries as for instance, India (73%), Indonesia (77%), Philippines (66%) and Thailand (51%).In Latin America and North Africa, the share is much smaller (Charmes, 1990; Charmes 2000). The share for Eastern Europe and Central Asia shows that the informal sector generally constitutes only about 5-20% of non-agricultural employment. Across Asia and Africa, the shares exhibit a strong upward trend given weak employment creation and income generation from economic growth (ILO 2000).Evidence also exist showing that the poor in most developing countries resort to the Informal Sector activities as an escape route out of poverty. The positive views of the informal sector provided basis for the inclusionist arguments of policy makers and international support organizations. Most of the criticisms of the informal sector have been directed at the fact that often, the earnings and employment situation of its workers is inferior to that of the formal sector workers. Wages are generally very low in the sector and unstable compared to the formal sector, and more often below legislated national minimum wage levels. Informality both in housing and livelihood generation is also considered a 4 social ill usually described in terms of what participant’s lack, or wish to avoid. The worker’s lack of access to basic protections and services is a related shortcoming. Generally, an inverse relationship between an increased informal sector activity and slower economic growth has long been established. Informal businesses are stigmatized for lack of potential for growth, trapping employees in menial jobs indefinitely. The negative perception of informality also extends to the view of the sector being disruptive to the national economy and a hindrance to development. Such criticisms are justified by the view that the informal economy is fraudulent resulting in loss of revenue to governments; it’s capacity to weaken unions; its links to the creation of unfair competition; absence of regulatory controls by government; the sectors lack of observance of health and safety standards; and reduced availability of employment benefits and rights. These characteristics have led to many countries and cities pursuing a policy of deterrence, with strict regulation and punitive procedures, including arrests, demolitions and evictions, etc. RETHINKING THE APROACH TO ADDRESSING INFORMALITY The Shortcomings of Formalization and Eviction Strategies In the economic literature, the most important incentive to informal sector operators is the escape of government taxation and increased regulation. That is, the tax burden and social security contribution implied from formalization amongst other reasons is an important explanation for the existence of the informal sector. This notion is today as valid and relevant as it was at the turn of the century. Many authors therefore view the political economy of the formal/informal divide as being exploitative primarily to meet the insatiable appetite of governments to generate revenue. Interest by governments to tax and regulate aspects of their economies has never been unusual. The opposing interests of the informal sector and governments creates conflict points that regularly undermine policy formulation and implementation. As shown from several case studies, the excessive use of legal instruments and coercion has not produced sufficient incentives to the formal sector to formalize or grow. De’Soto has shown that for instance, the excessive taxes and 5 regulation in the Peruvian economy (and other Latin American countries) of the informal sector instead have forced a large part of the economy into informality and thus preventing the formalization agenda of the government. Several studies also refer to the failure of the eviction strategy as being suggestive of the lack of suitability of the coercion strategy to addressing informality. Deriving the incentive for the formalization of the informal sector from the tax argument therefore, and the failure of coercion strategies provide the justification for a rethink of approach to policy. Addressing Informality through Economic growth A great majority of literature have shown how economic underdevelopment is directly linked to the existence of the informal sector (Todoro, 1987; Williams, 1955, Mabogunje, 1980). The growth of the informal sector is linked to economic policies failing to support increased labor force in a formal way. The experience of many countries shows that growth of the informal sector has been largely associated with the weak capacity of the formal private sector to generate adequate employment and incomes (Sethuraman 1997, Tokman 1990, Charmes 1998). Conversely, informal sector employment (growth) has declined in countries that have experienced periods of robust and sustained economic growth (Charmes 1998). In pre-crisis Southeast Asia, on account of strong export-led growth and industrialization, the formal sector was able to absorb informal sector workers and new labor force entrants in increasing numbers resulting in a marked deceleration in the growth of the informal sector (see Alonzo 1991, Lubell 1993). The complementary empirical accounts of employment expansion during economic downturns and employment contraction during robust economic recoveries also testify to the counter-cyclical character of the informal sector with East Asia being a case in point. 6 Fig 2: Relationship between economic growth and existence of Informal sector. The second important argument is from the growing evidence that poverty is a key characteristic of the informal sector, proven by the positive association between the incidence of poverty and participation in the informal sector. Measured on the basis of consumption expenditure, evidence from India shows that 43 percent of informal sector participants are poor compared to only 6 percent in the formal sector (Pradhan et al, 1999). Sethuraman (1997) also reports extensive evidence for urban centers in Latin America which shows that, between 50 – 85% of the working poor are in the informal sector, and that the incidence of extreme poverty is higher in the informal sector. Other Studies reveal the “derived demand” character of some informal sector activities and how a downturn in the overall economy can create incentive and as well informal sector. Literature therefore, generally support the notion that economic growth and poverty reduction which most developing countries grapple with cannot be achieved without sound policies that promote growth of the formal sectors of the economy. This is supported by development theories which post that, as economies mature and develop, economic activity will shift from the informal to the formal sphere. In fact, much of the economic development discourse is centered on the notion that formalization indicates how developed a country's economy is. PHYSICAL PLANNING AND ECONOMIC DEVELOMENT: The connecting Argument 7 The City as an Economic Resource Most advanced economies of the world attribute their development to the economic opportunities presented by the growth of their cities. The World Bank has provided evidence suggesting that cities are responsible for 80% of global GDP (World Bank, 2005) in addition to indicating that the top 100 largest cities account for 35% of Global GDP; the top 600 for 62%; and the top 1,000 for 68%. Country level data, shows that Tokyo with 26.8% of Japans population contributes 34.0% of the country’s GDP; London with 20.3% population accounts for 25.4% of UK’s GDP; and Sao Paulo with 10% of Brazil’s population accounting for 25% of the country’s GDP. In China, 53 metropolitan regions with cities of more than 1 million people were currently home in 2007 to 370 million people or 29% of the country’s population, but accounting for more than 62% of the country’s non-farm GDP. Cape Town, Durban and Johannesburg account for 50 percent of South Africa’s GDP but represent only 20 percent of the national population (SACN, 2004). In Asia, India with a relatively early state of urbanization has 14 major clusters of cities accounting for 17% of the country’s total population and 35% of total GDP. Lagos accounts for 60% of Nigeria’s non-oil GDP. The urban dominance in economic productivity also shows up in fiscal performance as well. For example, the Bangkok metropolitan region accounts for about 53% of public sector revenue in Thailand, but is home to less than 20% of the population. Cities are also proven poverty fighters with their income generally four times higher than rural areas in many countries including China, Thailand and some African countries (World Bank, 2005). The growing recognition of the economic opportunities offered by cities has provided basis for the adoption of urbanization as a global development strategy. Many countries and international development agencies have embarked upon aggressive programs of accelerated urbanization designed to spur economic growth. Through its pro-urbanization policies, China has successfully removed 220 million people from poverty in less than 25 years (Chan, 2003). The growing acceptance of the values of urbanization guarantees that cities will remain high on both domestic and global agendas. This hasbeen supported by renewed interest of 8 the UN Habitat and the World Bank on urban problems and opportunities. Increased and sharper policy focus upon urban issues is therefore expected in subsequent years. Many theories have explained the factors responsible for the economic relevance of cities. Integral to industrialization is rapid income growth which arises from the benefits of Scale and agglomeration economies (Henderson and Davis, 2003). Efficiency gains generally are associated with large number of firms locating in the same place and from labor pooling (Nakamura, 1985). Levy (1985) observes that manufacturing and services production in cities creates savings in travel and distribution costs. Firms located in cities are also able to more readily copy best practices in technology and management from more advanced firms; and they more easily hire skilled workers (Duraton and Puga, 2004; Rosenthal and Strange, 2004). Big cities also allow for more efficient distribution of social services such as government assistance and health care (Levy, 1985). They also create large markets for business and attract international investment and tourism. The diversity and face-to-face interactions cities facilitate is what leads to cross-cultural mix and the formation of new ideas and knowledge collaborations necessary for economic development (Lucas, 1988). The World Bank’s recent diagnostic survey of Nigeria’s growth potential has shown how cities, when adequately reformed can provide the required transition from oil dependence, and to drive economic growth and poverty reduction. For decades, Nigeria’s growth and revenue has been dependent on oil which now has unsustainable with the collapse of the oil market. From 1980 to 2010, oil revenue contributed over 75% of federal government revenues and almost 95% of exports. Oil dependence and poor governance has led to underdevelopment of other sectors and left cities with limited job creation abilities and access to basic services. Urbanization traditionally has been associated with structural transformation toward manufacturing and services. Cities are also central to improving agricultural output as the efficiency of farm production is tied to consumption system in urban 9 areas. Enabling the transition of cities from passive role to being active agents of economic growth requires addressing the interrelated shortcomings of the urbanization process through effective planning. Planning and Economic Growth of Cities Environment, prosperity and economic development are foundation arguments of physical planning. Most literature refers to the creation of conducive living conditions for work, living and leisure, and the need for sustainable and inclusive growth and development as its primary objectives. At inception, the concern for economic development was influenced by social ideals including the response to improving environmental quality, reducing poverty and improving access to housing and social services. Physical planning generally has indirect relationship wealth creation through the orderly use of space at both the urban and regional levels. Land generally is an economic resource and its efficient use for productive enterprise bores down to the quality of physical planning. At the regional level, growth is linked to the ease by which production and market centres are effectively connected. The physical, infrastructural and demographic considerations that guide location decisions and how they are integrated over space to facilitate growth are also primary considerations of physical planning. Mabogunje (1980) observes that efficiently and cost effectively integrated spatial units accelerate economic growth. Within cities, the availability of employment opportunities is the primary driver of growth which is determined by quality of infrastructure, ease of access to land and housing, and physical security. Relating to this, the upgrading of poor neighborhoods is known to have direct link to the retention of jobs and the attraction of new industries. Older industrial districts and inner cities are generally less attractive to investment due to crime, congestion and parking problems, poor infrastructure, housing deficit, commuting problems, and a poor working environment. In recent times, evidence to the economic contributions of cities to national and global GDP’s has re-kindled interest on the notion that planning, by creating basis for productive urbanization has important value to economic growth management beyond the traditional notions of physical controls. 10 The Value of Planning Tools in Economic development The primary tools of planning have traditionally included the Comprehensive Urban Master Plan, the Regional Master Plan and the National Physical Development Plan. The Urban Master Plan provides basic guidance to physical development of cities that is maintained with regular revisions. The plan defines the spatial framework which permits the best outcomes from the location of population, industry, businesses, open spaces and publicly built facilities. It also addresses physical, economic and social problems and the opportunities available for growth, and correlates development with the provision of transportation, water supply, schools, etc. Many cities have favorable economic ratings based on the physical development and economic policy attractions they offer to industries and businesses. The Regional Development Plan defines the spatial framework for promoting growth and development for city systems. It ensures that locational decisions take advantage of natural resource distribution, population clusters and market centres towards economic growth; and the provision of networks of infrastructure between production and consumption centres to create economic growth. The National Physical Development Plan has similar purpose as the Regional Development Plan. In recent times, the City Development Strategy (CDS) concept has become a useful tool for improving the quality of urban growth management. The CDS is premised on the position that good urban management has synergy with national development goals of sustainable economic growth and poverty reduction. Well positioned and well timed public, private, and civil society strategic interventions through the CDS help to alter the development trajectory of cities by making them competitive and resilient. Competitiveness and resilience are dependent on the internal and external environments of a city,both of which are essential to facilitating economic growth. In 2005, emerging economies grew by $1.6 trillion, more than the industrialized countries, and most of the increment linked to cities with well-prepared CDS reports. 11 PLANNING THE FUTURE OF THE FCC FROM STRATEGIC ECONOMIC GROWTH Background and Basis for the informal sector of Abuja Comprehensive statistics on the actual size and composition of the informal sector of the FCC is lacking. Various projections however suggest the informal sector to be responsible for more than 85% of the production base of the city. Like other major cities, the sector consists of various enterprises but especially of artisans, construction workers, domestic servants and hawkers. Most of the informal sector activities occur around the vicinity of the capital but also at strategic locations close to activity centres with the objective of reaching the maximum number of customers. The largest concentration of informal activities is in the satellite town and the Municipal Council areas. This is also where the largest concentration of informal housing exists. As expected, informal housing in these allocations are temporary and poorly built. Nearly 75% of informal workers live in these shanties from where they commute daily to the FCC. 12 13 As found elsewhere, the inability of the formal sector to generate jobs in the required quantities has been the primary reason for the growth of the informal sector. But in Abuja, this also particularly has link to marginal industrial activity and the original conception of the status of the city as the administrative Capital of the Nigeria. Other factors that help account for the size, physical and locational characterization of the informal sector include inadequate housing, large infrastructural deficits and difficulties in accessing land. Inappropriate resettlement policies add up to the constraints just as the unrealistic policies and proposals of the FCC master plan, most of which have become not only expensive to implement but generally also socially and economically unrealistic. The very high standard of infrastructure envisaged by the plan and the high quality of construction demanded by the building code have increased both land and property development cost. The disciplined implementation of the plan itself has been compromised both by corruption and political high handedness of the FCT leaderships. The Choices available to the FCC for Inclusive Development 1. Need for Economic development strategy. New thinking regarding the economic value of cities requires that much deeper consideration be given to policies for enhancing productivity of the FCC. This will require transcending the preparation of Physical Master Plans as standalone tools to complementing the process with the formulation of a City Development Strategy (CDS). The focus of the strategy would be to agree to a broader vision of economic development for the City to deliver continuous growth, prosperity and inclusion. This implies putting the regional economy of the Federal Capital City on a trajectory of growth based on the productivity of firms and workers, and one that raises the standards of living for all. That is, suggesting growth that is robust, shared and enduring. This will extend to emphasis on building strong business ecosystems for industries, improving the productivity of firms and people and facilitating external trade which together constitute the market foundations from which the required growth, prosperity and inclusion can emerge. 14 Further to this, growth of the economy would need to be stimulated from internal competencies which will come from creating the necessary incentives to attract firms and industries based on the existing quality of infrastructure in the city, and to invest in the ecosystem of innovation, trade, talent, further infrastructure and governance to support globally competitive firms and enable small businesses to grow in the market. Deriving from this, export growth and trade with major local international markets would develop to further deepen local industrial specializations and bring in further new income and investment. Growing the economy of the FCC would not only create formal jobs but rather also eliminate the incentives for growth of the informal sector. 2. Need for Effective Urban Governance Stronger legal and administrative frameworks are required that allow for the seamless and effective governance of the FCC. The progress recorded between 2003 -2007 with the creation of the Abuja Municipal Management Agency, has been gradually eroded, but requires restoration and legal backing to become effective. In almost the whole country, responsibility for managing cities has belonged to nobody. Urban governance therefore consisted of fragmented authority located in multiple of agencies often with primary focus on land use and development control. An effective governance framework will also imply creation of new working frameworks with the municipal councils and the private sector for efficient services delivery. In particular, the private sector culture of organization can be embedded for quality delivery, prompt access, accountability, and transparency. Other related governance issues would include building capacity for civil servants and strengthening tax collection. The functions envisaged for the re structured Municipal Management agency should be purely that of monitoring and coordination of various aspects of service delivery by the development and service agencies of the FCC. 15 3. Provide Support for the Informal Sector. The literature has generally underscored the variety of constraints (technology, credit, capital, and education and training) that the informal sector face that are also applicable to the FCC situation. As acknowledged globally therefore, the challenge is how to design polices to systematically and consistently address these issues. The few interventions that exist have been disappointing because they did not prioritize on the critical needs of the informal sector which include problems of access to credits and the lack of flexible rules and guidelines for the sector. Uncoordinated policies across agencies like for instance the AEPB, the URP Department and the Development Control Department have undermined effectiveness of strategies, suggesting a need for a coordinated and multi-sectoral approach to policy and management. That is, suggesting that individual policy “silos” be replaced in the design and implementation of policies and programs. Of fundamental importance is the need to re – consider the incentive of formulization by government away from the tax arguments, to programs of facilitation and concessions. To make people want to become legal, it will be necessary to discuss advantages of formalization and to eliminate cost of being becoming ‘legal’. As De’Soto observes, the root cause of poverty is the legal system which limits ability of the poor to own titles and rights. That is, the ease by which the formalization process occurs will determine how the poor are able to access credit to increase the value of the assets. 4. Need for comprehensive urban development policy A comprehensive urban development policy is required for the FCC to define the context within which the FCT will develop. This should particularly address existing challenges including the creation of economic prosperity and employment; protection and improvement of the urban environment; promoting good urban governance; and facilitation of Integrated urban ®ional development. As argued previously, urban issues are increasingly a prominent feature of the national agenda of cities globally and this should be the case for the FCC. An urban development policy for the FCT should not only facilitate coordinated development of the 16 settlement system but also lead to the emergence of a competitive and dynamic regional system to achieve economic, social and environmental objectives. 5. Care and Due-Diligence in the forthcoming Review of the FCC Master Plan Previous attempts to review the FCC Master Plan have not been successful even when the need for doing so had long been established. As the intention for the review is now becoming a reality, it would be important that the errors of the existing master plan be kept in view in ensuring that such are not carried over or are allowed to re – occur. Several studies have referred the shortcomings to the inadequacies of proposals on housing, transportation, services, land use and the economy. Master plans are more than physical artifacts, and are therefore required to be responsive to both socio economic and political exigencies within the short and long term horizon. CONCLUSION: Getting Inspiration from from Dubai Dubai is a classical example of what vision, planning, leadership and discipline can do for a city, that the Federal Capital City, Abuja can learn from. Dubai started as a local township with very humble credentials. It had a modest economy and population but a determined mindset, and a clear vision to achieve international excellence and a global city standing. Most literature refer to Dubai as epitome of entrepreneurial spirit, good planning and determination for success. Through an ambitious plan, Dubai has successfully positioned itself as a central hub providing various services for transportation, logistics, tourism, media, education and financial services to more than 2 billion people. The city has recently developed a comprehensive long term and detailed socio – government agenda called ‘the Dubai strategic plan’ focusing on challenges related to the economy, infrastructure, human development, environment and society. Dubai’s Gross Domestic Product as at 2008 was $ 82.11 billion. Although its economy was initially built from revenue from the oil industry, revenue from oil and gas now accounts for less than 20% of its Gross Domestic Product. Dubai’s economy is supported by manufacturing, banking and financial services. It also serves as a major trade hub and a tourism destination. In the recent times Dubai has been classified as the top business 17 gateway for the Middle East and Africa. The story of Dubai is a testimony to the fact that the ‘future is open to suggestions’, one that should inspire and define the future possibilities for growth and development of Abuja. REFERENCES Ades Come, A.E, and E. Glaeser (1995), ‘Trade and Circuses: Explaining Urban Giants’, Quarterly China common Journal of Economics, 110, 195-227. 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