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• Presentation to the Development Foundation for Zimbabwe conference on engaging the Diaspora Victoria Falls Zimbabwe 16-18th December 2010 • By Max Gomera Nation-Building 3.0 Opportunities for Powering the Zimbabwean Economy from the emerging Renewable Energy Maxwell Gomera • Zimbabwe has set an ambition of 5% GDP Growth – Growth areas likely to be mining, agriculture and manufacturing – Growth from from at least two areas limited both in terms of the distributive aspects of the wealth and potential for driving development. • Growth is limited by weak energy sector – – – – – National power demand estimated at 2,000 to 3,200MW Installed Capacity approximately 1,200MW Available generation capacity approximately 1,000MW Effective deficit approximately 1,900MW With refurbishment of Hwange, Munyati, Harare and Kariba, available generation might reach 1,650MW by 2015 Context • Economy largely dependant on Coal, Hydro and Imports for energy – Climate change limits the potential for coal (in terms of securing investment and pressures on emissions) – GRID sources have Limited Opportunity to power rural areas • Where are the new areas for innovation? – Renewable energy presents a development opportunity aimed at creating a new driver for economic growth; new sources of employment and consistent solutions for the improvement of environmental quality based on the recognition of the interdependence of environment and economy Context One which consumes capital.. ..or risks human survival.. ‘Ecological Footprint’ already exceeds Earth’s regenerative capacity… our demands on the planet have doubled over the last 40 years… Green Economy is not… + Public/private investment in green sectors + Quantity and quality of jobs in green sectors + Share of green sectors in GDP DOWN UP - Energy-resource-material use/GDP - CO2 and pollution level/GDP - Wasteful consumption Characteristics of Greening 1. GEI Conceptual Issues Feasibility of Renewable Energy: Good ideas or just hot air? Some examples… Comparison between performance and cost of Renewable Energy technologies Energy Emissions of CO2 in Typical power Investment energy generation Cost production per unit (kW) (US$/kW) stages (t/GWh) Final Power Available (kW) Generation Cost (US$/MWh) Efficiency (%) Mín Máx Wind 7 2000 1.200 120 45 75 900 Photovoltaic 5 10 9.000 500 18 0,005 1.8 Biomass Null 50.000 2.500 78 35 2.5 17.500 Small scale hydroelectric 10 1.000 3.000 102 85 30 850 [1] Production stages: extraction of raw materials (when appropriate), construction of power plants and operation. . Source: adapted from the presentation of the Center for Research on Electricity (CEPEL), 2007 Renewable Energy Kenya – Feed-in Tariffs Mandator y Use Access to Grid Set Price per kWh Long-term Power Purchase FTI Aspects FTI Aspects Expected Benefits Job Creation (200,000 farmers) Enhancing competitiveness (5-6m factories) Enhancing energy security (500MW) Coping with fuel scarcity and price Environmental Integrity Reducing fuel dependence “TRIPLE WIN” Expected Benefits + ten-year power purchase agreement US Cents 6.0/ kWh • Facilitate resource mobilization • Reduce transaction costs • Encourage private investors FTI Policy FTI Policy Observed Impacts 35 MW 15 MW(2008) Observed Impacts on Mumias Sugar Company Solar Water Heaters China is world’s largest market Implementation Plan on Promoting Solar Thermal Utilization in 2007 (11th Five-Year Plan for New and Renewable Energy) 2/3 global share Over 10% of population rely on 4o mil SWH systems in place Priority for hospitals, schools, restaurants and swimming pool China – Solar Water Heaters UNEP – Green Economy Initiative Economic Benefits Environmental Benefits Social Benefits Industry/ Highly profitable Reduce fossil fuel consumption Reduce risk of CO poisoning, Rheumatoid arthritis Household/ save fuel costs (342 – 3321 yuan) Save 348,000 t SCE of fossil energy/ year 600,000 employed China – Solar Water Heaters EASTGATE building in Zimbabwe mimics cooling mounds of termites • EASTGATE building in Zimbabwe uses less than 10% of the energy of a conventional building its size. • Eastgate's owners saved $3.5 million on a $36 million building because an airconditioning plant didn't have to be imported. • Rents are 20% lower than in other buildings. Source: Mick Pearce Green buildings Fuel Consumption (L/1000 TKU) 96 São Paulo State Matrix for Transport 2000 Rodoviário Ferroviário 5,2% Dutoviário 0,8% Aéreo Hidroviário 0,3% 0,5% 10 5 93,2% Hidroviário Ferroviário Rodoviáro Source: Ministry of Transport Source: PDDT Vivo Energy Efficiency Load / Power (T / HP) CO2 Emissions (kg/1000 TKU) 116 5 20 0.75 34 0,17 Hidroviário Ferroviário Hidroviário Ferroviário Rodoviáro Rodoviáro Source: Ministry of Transport Sustainable Transport Source: DOT/Maritime Administration e TCL Sustainable Planning Initiatives Economic Benefits Per capita loss from severe congestion 6.7-11 times less than other cities City Management Urban Planning Transport Planning Policy to transform city and industry Flood control -> turned vulnerable areas into parks Annual fuel losses (per capita) 4.3-13 times less than others Park with buses and bi-cycle path (ecological asset + green infrastructure) Fuel usage is 30 percent lower than other cities Curitiba Industrial City (CIC) 700 companies, 50,000 direct jobs, 150,000 indirect jobs Population increase in a sustainable way 361,000 (1960) – 1,797,000 (2007) Brazil – Sustainable Cities Organic Agriculture 60%/ 359% increase 296,203 ha/ 206,803 farmers (2008) 48-68% lower carbon emission Carbon Sequestration 185,000 ha, 45,000 farmers (2004) Climate Contribution OA Growth in Uganda US$ 22.8 mil (2007/8) US$ 6.2 mil (2004/5) US$ 3.7 mil (2003/4) Organic food & drink 97% revenue –OECD countries 80% producer in developing countries OA Exports in Uganda Business Opportunity Uganda – OA Transformation UNEP – Green Economy Initiative • Use of Economic Instruments – Feed In Tariffs for Renewable energy • Creating a market for renewable energy and increasing the number of producers Rewarding green production and creating a green market – Accessing Global Financing • Clean Development Mechanism • Reducing Emissions from Degradation and Deforestation • Adaptation Funds – Green Economy Credit Line • Support to Small and Medium Enterprises from local and international financiers • Stimulus money, loan guarantees, grant programs Constructing the Agenda.... • State programs for sustainable construction – – – – Reduced taxes for green technologies Develop policies to guide sustainable construction Challenge the assumption of connection to ZESA Water harvesting and individual water use control • Payment for Ecosystem Services – Forests are important as offsetting tools – Wetlands, etc – Accessing such finances can be a challenge • Support to local research capacities – Tech innovation will allow for production cost reductions and installation cost reductions in the long run Constructing the Agenda… Value Horizon 1: Acting together with Business / Market leaders Instruments / Actions Transforming the Productive Sector Time Value Horizon 2: Change processes in the supply chain & bring the Horizon 1: market average Acting together toward Env with leaders of agenda the market Instruments / Actions Changes in project design Time Transforming the Productive Sector Value Horizon 1: Acting together with leaders of market Instruments / Action Horizon 3: Change all elements of Horizon 2: the Change processes production in the supply chain chain & bring the installed in market average Zimbabwe for the environmental agenda Change in design of projects The Government of Zim will contribute to the stimulation of sustainability in the private business Change in social Time behavior Planning tools and monitoring Strategy with the Productive Sector •All agendas will need to link •Green Economy provides one framework for such a conversation •Concept brings together agenda of work, wealth and health •Unifies the key actors in the economy, including Business which will ultimately provide most of the solutions Green Economy