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Implications for the BWC from Microbial Forensics Professor Alemka Markotić, MD, PhD University Hospital for Infectious Diseases, Zagreb Faculty of Medicine, University of Rijeka, Rijeka Croatian Academy for Sciences and Arts CROATIA • There is a strong need for the development of high confidence methodologies to distinguish among natural, accidental, and deliberate outbreaks of infectious disease. MICROBIAL FORENSICS… …relatively new scientific discipline used to analyze possible bioterrorism attacks, or inadvertent microorganisms or toxins release. ”fingerprinting” of a pathogenic agent – unique identification of microorganisms MICROBIAL FORENSICS… Identification of persons who commited the bioterrorist act or biocrime, intentionally or inadvertently HOW TO BRING MICROBES IN COURT ? …Combination of different disciplines like microbiology, infectious diseases medicine in general, population genetics, chemistry, physics, statistics, bioinformatics and computer sciences are important to get more evidence from biological materials used in bioterrorist attacks. Preparedness In 1345-6, while laying siege to the city of Kaffa (now Feodosija, Ukraine), the Mongol army catapulted dead bodies with plague over the city walls. Black Death is widely believed to have reached Europe from the Crimea as the result of a biological warfare attack. THE AMERITHRAX CASE • The Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) was responsible for the the investigation, given the major case title of “Amerithrax”, lasted nearly nine years and • involved almost 600,000 investigator work hours 10,000 witness interviews 80 searches and 26,000 email reviews including analysis of four million megabytes of computer memory in six continents in addition, 29 government, university and commercial laboratories were involved in scientific analyses, and close collaboration with other federal agencies was established. • • • • Mostly desperate people The risk of some hidden (bio)terrorists? Incubation Period (Duration: 7 to 17 days) Not contagious Initial Symptoms(Prodrome) (Duration: 2 to 4 days) Sometimes contagious Rash (about 20 days) Contagious Smallpox spreading New focuses Secundary infection “Contaminated” zone “Infective” zone Zone of initial exposure Geographical distribution of rodents infected with different zoonotic pathogens in Croatia Ivanić-Grad Draganić 16 rodents Bartonella F. tularensis Babesia Leptospira Mikanovci 39 rodents Bartonella Babesia Ehrlicha Borrelia RF Leptospira 4 (25,0%) 2 (12,5%) 7 (43,8%) 1 (6,3%) 4 (10,3%) 1 (2,6%) 1 (2,6%) 2 (5,1%) 4 (10,3%) IVANIĆGRAD Sušica 14 rodents Borrelia RF Babesia Leptospira DRAGANIĆ 1 (7,1%) 2 (14,3%) 1 (7,1%) ILOK CERNA 2 (2,3%) 10 (11,4%) 2 (2,3%) 1 (1,1%) 37 (42,0%) 24 (27,3%) Ilok MIKANOVCI Papuk 88 rodents Borrelia Bartonella Borrelia RF Anaplasma Babesia Leptospira 1 (3,6%) 1 (3,6%) 5 (17,9%) 4 (14,3%) 11 (39,3%) PAPUK ŽUTICA SUŠICA Žutica 28 rodents Bartonella Ehlichia Borrelia RF Babesia Leptospira 18 rodents Bartonella Anaplasma Babesia Leptospira 2 (11,1%) 3 (16,7%) 5 (27,8%) 1 (5,6%) 30 glodavaca Bartonella Borrelia RF Babesia Leptospira 8 (26,7%) 1 (3,3%) 12 (40%) 9 (30%) Cerna 9 rodents Borrelia RF Babesia Leptospira 2 (22,2%) 1 (11,1%) 1 (11,1%) Multiple infections with several dangerous pathogens! Tadin A, Tokarz R, Markotić A et al. Am J Trop Med Hyg. 2015 Dec 28. pii: 15-0517. Who has the advantage? Microbial forensic expert? Mother Nature and her tricks? Bioterrorist? What do we need for better Forensic Approaches to Microbial Identification? Interdisciplinary approach, high multiplex diagnostic technology and bioinformatics tools – Molecular epidemiology data and field research – Comprehensive clinical databases: description of „usual” and „unusual” cases and outbreaks – Basic and applied research linked to clinical data and diagnostic tools development (translational medicine approach) – One Health Medicine approach – Robust, powerful multiplex molecular diagnostic tools and bioinformatics analysis tools – Development of rapid and cheap diagnostic tests – Powerful immune response measurement Smart people, communication, collaboration – Smart people who are able to understand and synthetize hughe amount of data and promptly and properly react. – Fast communication with world experts experienced in dangerous pathogens clinical manifestation and detection (Telemedicine approach). – Close collaboration between public health and clinical laboratories with specialized army/police microbial forensic laboratories. Zagreb, Croatia, 2013 Warsaw, Poland, 2015 To stop me and my bugs Microbial Forensic needs also support from Thank you for your attention and your future support!