Download Human (D)Evolution

Human (D)Evolution
200,000 BC – Hunter Gatherer
Settled Agriculture
10,000 BC to 1750 AD
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Mesopotamia
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Harappa and Mohanjodaro
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Inca
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Aztecs
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Egypt
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Rome
Modern “Civilisation”
1750 to ????????
Coal – Mother of Growth
Watt is happenin'
Birth of the Industrial Revolution
Atmospheric CO2 levels
8000 BC (Settled Agri): 250 parts per million
1750 AD: 270 ppm
2014: 400 ppm
250 million years of sunlight:
Exhausted in 150 years
Finite Resources – Hubbert's Peak
 Using system dynamics theory and a computer model called “World3,” the book
presented and analyzed 12 scenarios that showed different possible patterns—
and environmental outcomes—of world development over two centuries from
1900 to 2100.
 Alerted the world to the dangers of dynamics of exponential growth of resource
use and waste generation resulting in natural and social limits.
The Main Ideas of Limits to Growth
 Population and industrial growth are inherently exponential; and that
exponential growth takes one to any existing limit quickly, whatever
its magnitude.
 Global society will most likely adjust to limits by overshoot and
collapse and not by S- shaped growth. However sustainable
development is possible, if important changes are made.
 Politics and the market are inherently unsuited to adopt constructive
policies that can lead to sustainable development.
The Evolution of Denial
There are no effective limits.
Perhaps there are limits, but they are far away.
Perhaps the limits are near, but technology will avoid any problems.
Technology apparently does not avoid all problems, but markets will
allocate the available goods and services satisfactorily.
 Markets do not always work, but it is too late to avoid the overshoot.
We must adapt. In any event, DON’T WORRY
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Limits to Growth
We Live in an Exponential Era
Source: Alan Atkisson and Junko Edahiro, Life Beyond Growth, ISIS Academy 2012
Main Conclusion in 1972
“If the present growth trends in world
population, industrialization, pollution,
food production and resource depletion
(physical factors) continue unchanged,
the limits to growth on this planet will be
reached sometime within the next one
hundred years.
The most probable result will be a rather
sudden and uncontrollable decline in
both population and industrial capacity.”
Main Conclusion in 2004
Since 1972 there have not been any
significant changes in the policies that drive
growth in population and industrial
production. Now the use of resources and
generation of pollution are above sustainable
levels.
In 1972 the challenge was to slow down;
now the challenge is to get back down.
Decline is still the most probable future, and
now it is much more likely - but not inevitable.
But thirty years have been lost, and the
period of declining growth - chosen by us or
enforced by the planet - is thus much closer.
General Conclusions
 Waiting to introduce fundamental change reduces the options for humanity’s
long-term future
 The world’s goal for industrial goods per capita, even with all the ameliorative
technologies, cannot be sustained for the resulting population of more than
seven billion.
 A global transition to a sustainable society is probably possible without
reductions in either population or industrial output.
 A transition to sustainability will require an active decision to reduce the human
ecological footprint.
 There are many trade-offs between the number of people the earth can sustain
and the material level at which each person can be supported.
 The longer the world takes to reduce its ecological footprint and move toward
sustainability, the lower the population and material standard that will be
ultimately supportable.
 The higher the targets for population and material standard of living are set, the
greater the risk of exceeding and eroding its limits.
Technology is not the Solution
 Energy expansion has been no more than 2% per anum.
 World GDP has also matched the energy growth.
 Technology requires energy. Rapid replacement of existing capital with
alternate energy or energy efficient capital drives limited energy away
from other requirements of the economy, limiting the rate at which this
is practicable.
 GDP Growth rates of various countries reflect their ability to control
resources (through wars, ownership or trade) and (failure to) offset the
impact of pollution.
 Fifty-four nations experienced declines in per capita GDP for more
than a decade during the period 1990–2001.
Politics and Markets are not the Solution
 Failure to build informational, social, and institutional mechanisms to
keep in check the positive feedback loops that cause exponential
population.
 Mounting debt and paper “wealth” drive politics and markets.
 The richest one- fifth of the world’s population has 85 percent of the
global GNP. In 1998 more than 45 percent of the globe’s people had
to live on incomes averaging $2 a day or less. And the gap between
rich and poor is widening.
Some Indicators of Overshoot
 Deterioration in renewable resources - surface and ground water,
forests, fisheries, agricultural land.
 Rising levels of pollution.
 Growing demands for capital, resources, and labor by military and
industry to secure, process, and defend resources.
 Investment in human resources (education, shelter, health care)
postponed in order to provide immediate consumption and security
demands.
 Rising debt; eroding goals for health and environment.
 Growing instability in natural ecosystems.
 Growing gap between rich and poor - between the powerful and the
weak.
Meadows, et. al. pp 176-177.
Some Indicators of Overshoot
Human beings and the natural world are on a collision course.
Human activities inflict harsh and often irreversible damage on the
environment and on critical resources. If not checked, many of our current
practices put at serious risk the future that we wish for human society and
the plant and animal kingdoms, and may so alter the living world that it will
be unable to sustain life in the manner that we know.
Fundamental changes are urgent if we are to avoid the collision our
present course will bring about.
World Scientists’ Warning to Humanity signed by more than 1,600
scientists, including 102 Nobel laureates, from 70 countries, 1992
The Sustainable Society
 Only a society that has in place informational, social, and institutional
mechanisms to keep in check the positive feedback loops that cause
exponential population and capital growth may become sustainable.
 Sustainability does not mean zero growth.
 A sustainable society must provide sufficiency and security for all.
 Rules for sustainability would be put into place not to destroy freedoms,
but to create freedoms or protect them.