Download Slide 1 - UW Hydro - University of Washington

Generating a Comprehensive Climate
Change Streamflow Scenarios
Database for the Columbia River
Basin
Alan F. Hamlet
Kurt Unger
Philip W. Mote
Eric Salathé
Dennis P. Lettenmaier
JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group
Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering
University of Washington
WA State Department of Ecology
Recession of the Muir Glacier
Aug, 13, 1941
Aug, 31, 2004
Image Credit: National Snow and Ice Data Center, W. O. Field, B. F. Molnia
http://nsidc.org/data/glacier_photo/special_high_res.html
Collapse of the
Larsen B
Ice shelf,
Antarctica
March 5, 2002
Trends in April 1 SWE 1950-1997
Mote P.W.,Hamlet A.F., Clark M.P., Lettenmaier D.P., 2005, Declining
mountain snowpack in western North America, BAMS, 86 (1): 39-49
Overview of 21st Century Climate
Projections and Some Water
Resources Impact Pathways
Observed 20th century variability
°C
+3.2°C
+1.7°C
+0.7°C
0.9-2.4°C
0.4-1.0°C
Pacific Northwest
1.2-5.5°C
Observed 20th century variability
%
-1 to +3%
+1%
+6%
+2%
-1 to +9%
Pacific Northwest
-2 to +21%
Simulated Changes in Natural Runoff Timing in the Naches
River Basin Associated with 2 C Warming
120
Simulated Basin Avg Runoff (mm)
100
80
Impacts:
•Increased winter flow
•Earlier and reduced peak flows
•Reduced summer flow volume
•Reduced late summer low flow
1950
60
plus2c
40
20
0
oct
nov
dec
jan
feb
mar
apr
may
jun
jul
aug
sep
Water Supply and Demand
•Changes in the seasonality water supply (e.g. reductions in summer)
•Changes in water demand (e.g. increasing evaporation)
•Changes in drought stress
•Increasing conflicts between water supply and other uses and users of water
Energy Supply and Demand
•Changes in the seasonality and quantity of hydropower resources
•Changes in energy demand
•Increasing conflicts between hydro and other uses and users of water
Instream Flow Augmentation
•Changes in low flow risks
•Changes in the need for releases from storage to reproduce existing streamflow
regime.
•Changes in water resources management related to water quality (e.g. to provide
dilution flow or to control temperature)
Flood Control and Land Use Planning
•Changes in flood risks
•Changes in flood control evacuation and timing
•Dam safety
Impacts in Estuaries
•Impacts of sea level rise and changing flood risk on low lying areas (dikes and
levies)
•Impacts to ecosystem function
•Changes in land use policy (coastal armoring, land ownership, FEMA maps)
Long-Term Planning, Water Resources Agreements, Water Law and Policy
•Water allocation agreements in a non-stationary climate (e.g. water permitting)
•Appropriateness of the historic streamflow record as a legal definition of climate
variability
•Need for new planning frameworks in a non-stationary climate
•Transboundary implications for the Columbia Basin
A Need to Provide Improved Access to
Hydrologic Scenarios for Planning
As the public and professionals in the water management and
policy arenas have become increasing concerned about the
impacts of climate change on PNW water resources, demand
for hydrologic scenarios suitable for planning purposes at a
range of spatial scales has increased dramatically.
Currently there does not exist an up-to-date, comprehensive,
and self-consistent data base of hydrologic scenarios for the
Columbia River basin that is suitable for the range of planning
activities the Climate Impacts Group is being asked to
support.
Study Overview
Collaboration with WA Department of
Ecology and Regional Stakeholders to
Provide Improved Access to Hydrologic
Scenarios in the Columbia River Basin
Funding Source: House Bill 2860
•$16 Million for studies related to enhancing water supplies
in the Columbia River basin for irrigation and municipal
water supply.
•Up to $200 Million for implementing improvements identified
by these studies.
Answers to FAQ regarding WA 2860 from the Department of Ecology website:
http://www.ecy.wa.gov/pubs/0611014.pdf
Regional Study Partners
•WA State Department of Ecology
•Bonneville Power Administration
•Northwest Power and Conservation Council
•State of Oregon
•Province of British Columbia (BC Hydro and
The Ministry of Environment)
Streamflow Data Needs to Support a 21st Century Planning
Framework Incorporating Climate Information and Uncertainty
2 Emissions Scenarios
X
20 GCM Scenarios
X
2 Downscaling Approaches
X
2 Hydro. Modeling Approaches
= Up to 160 realizations of future streamflow
variability at each location!
The Need to Encompass
Multiple Spatial Scales
Large Scale Planning Studies
Examples:
•Hydro System Performance
•Flood Control
•Main Stem ESA
•Transboundary Issues
•Large-Scale Irrigation Impacts
Medium Scale Planning Studies
Examples:
Water Supply Planning
•Yakima Basin
•Okanogan Basin
•Methow
•Walla Walla Basin
WA State Water Resources Inventory Areas
Schematic of VIC Hydrologic Model and
Energy Balance Snow Model
6 km
6 km
1/16th
Deg.
PNW
Snow Model
Alternate Approach: DHSVM
Developed in the
UW Land Surface
Hydrology Research
Group at UW, the
model has been used
for over a decade in
hydrologic research
applications
associated with small
catchments.
DHSVM: Distributed
Hydrology-SoilVegetation Model
Streamflow Locations Currently Under Consideration
Blue = Large Scale Planning
Sites
Green = Snake River Sites
Red = Additional Sites in WA
Partnerships with the BPA,
NWPCC, OR and BC will extend
the number of sites included in
the study to support specific
planning activities in these areas.
The UW will also collaborate
informally with the U of I.
On-Line Survey Website, Project Scope
http://cses.washington.edu/cig/
http://www.surveymonkey.com/s.aspx?sm=daSOYBVOb238oFy6ia7bcA_3d_3d