Download Overcoming Psychological Barriers to Peace Making: The Influence

1
Overcoming Psychological Barriers to
Peace Making: The Influence of Mediating
Beliefs about Losses
Daniel Bar-Tal
School of Education, Tel-Aviv University
and
Eran Halperin
Department of Psychology, Stanford University
Chapter to be published in M. Mikulincer & P. R. Shaver (Eds.), Prosocial motives, emotions
and behavior. Washington D.C.: American Psychological Association Press.
2
One of the fundamental questions that preoccupies students of conflict resolution as
well as the international community is how to overcome the psychological barriers that are a
major obstacle to peace making and building in societies involved in serious and violent
conflicts. These conflicts are over real goods such as territories, natural resources, selfdetermination, and/or basic values and the real issues of goals contradictions have to be
addressed in conflict resolution. But, no doubt it would be much easier to resolve them, had
they not been accompanied by an intense socio-psychological repertoire, which becomes an
investment in conflict and evolves into a foundation of culture of conflict. It is rigid and
resistant to change, fuels its continuation, inhibits de-escalation of the conflict and thus
serves as the major barrier to its peaceful resolution.
One of the basic challenges for societies involved in intractable conflict which aspire
to embark on the road of peace is to overcome this barrier and begin to construct a new
repertoire that facilitates the process of peace making and prepares the society members to
live in peace. The present chapter will examine ways of overcoming the psychological
barriers to peace process and outline initial ideas that may be helpful in stimulating further
thoughts and empirical research. The chapter will first briefly introduce the nature of
intractable conflict and the culture of conflict that evolves with it and gives rise to the
psychological barriers that prevent the peaceful conflict resolution and reconciliation. The
main part of the chapter will describe ways of overcoming the psychological barriers,
focusing on the role of mediating beliefs concerning losses of the parties involved in conflict.
This part will first discuss the process of unfreezing. Then it will present the notion of
mediating beliefs that instigate the reevaluation of the conflict situation. The focus will be
mostly on mediating beliefs that concern losses. Finally the chapter will present the
alternative societal beliefs of ethos of peace which are necessary for peace building.
3
Evolvement of the Psychological Barriers.
Nature of the Conflict and Evolvement of the Culture of Conflict
Conflicts are an inseparable part of every intergroup relation but we focus on those
conflicts that are prolonged, harsh and violent, often called intractable1. In these conflicts the
involved societies evolve culture of conflict of which the dominant parts are societal beliefs2
of collective memories and of ethos of conflict, as well as collective emotional orientation
(Bar-Tal, 2007a). Collective memory of conflict evolves to describe the “history” of the
conflict to society members (Cairns & Roe, 2003; Halbwachs, 1992; Wertsch, 2002). Ethos
of conflict provides dominant orientation to a society at present and directs it for the future
societal challenges (Bar-Tal, 2000a; Bar-Tal & Salomon, 2006)3. These narratives are
selective, biased and distorted as their major function is to satisfy the societal needs rather
than provide objective account of reality4. They therefore justify the position of the society in
conflict, portray it in very positive light and as the victim of the conflict and delegitimize the
1
Intractable conflicts are characterized as lasting at least 25 years, over goals that are perceived as
existential, being violent, perceived as unsolvable and of zero sum nature, greatly preoccupying society
members, with involved parties heavily investing in their continuation (see Azar, 1990; Bar-Tal, 1998, 2007a;
Kriesberg, 1998).
2
Societal beliefs are defined as the society’s members shared cognitions on topics and issues that are of
special concern to society and contribute to its unique characteristics. They are organized around themes and
consist of such contents as collective memories, ideologies, goals, myths, etc. ( Bar-Tal, 2000a).
3
In earlier work it was proposed that the challenges of the intractable conflict lead to the development
of eight themes of societal beliefs that comprise ethos of conflict (Bar-Tal, 1998, 2000a). They include: Societal
beliefs about the justness of own goals, societal beliefs about security, societal beliefs of positive collective self
image, societal beliefs of own victimization, societal beliefs of delegitimizing the opponent, societal beliefs of
patriotism, societal beliefs of unity and societal beliefs of peace.
4
This idea is based on conceptual and empirical literature which suggests that successful coping with
threatening and stressful conditions requires construction of a meaningful world view (e.g., Antonovsky, 1987;
Frankl, 1963; Janoff-Bulman, 1992; Taylor, 1983)
4
opponent. In addition to societal beliefs, the socio-psychological repertoire in situations of
intractable conflicts includes collective emotional orientations. The most notable is the
collective orientation of fear (Bar-Tal, 2001), but in addition, they may be dominated by
hatred and anger (see also for example, Kaufman, 2001; Petersen, 2002; Scheff, 1994). These
emotions play a central role in perpetuating the conflict as they underlie distrust, hostility and
violence of society members (de Rivera & Paez, 2007). The described socio-psychological
repertoire is disseminated to society members, maintained and institutionalized by societal
institutions, transmitted to the young generations, permeates into cultural products and
eventually evolves into a culture of conflict (e.g., Bar-Tal, 2007b; Ross, 1998). It fuels the
continuation of the conflict, functioning as a major obstacle to peaceful resolution of the
conflict.
Over their long history, intractable conflicts are not only managed, but there often are
attempts to resolve them peacefully, -- a difficult, complex, and challenging mission. The
mere attempts to resolve the conflict peacefully require major changes in the previously
described repertoire. But this repertoire cannot and does not change overnight. Even when
the groups’ leaders resolve the conflict peacefully and sign a peace agreement, this repertoire
continues to inhibit the development of peaceful relations until sometimes it changes slowly
via reconciliation process5, if and when it takes place. Changing the repertoire that was
dominant during the conflict era into one conducive to the peace process, is therefore not a
naturally occurring process, but one that requires active efforts.
5
Reconciliation process goes beyond the agenda of formal conflict resolution to changing the
motivations, goals, beliefs, attitudes and emotions by the great majority of the society members in order to
achieve as the outcome mutual recognition and acceptance between the rival societies (Bar-Tal & Bennink,
2004).
5
Nature of the Psychological Barriers
If the needed change was simple, many of the conflicts could have been resolved and
the involved societies could establish new amiable and peaceful relations. However the
contents do not easily change when alternative arguments are provided. The reality is very
complicated and painful because it is extremely difficult to change the repertoire that is
central, held with great confidence, fulfills many functions for the individual and the
collective during the conflict and has been continuously supported by the channels of
communication and the institutions (see for example Bar-Tal, 2007b).
The reason for the above described difficulty is the combination of the specific
contents regarding the conflict (as described above) and the rigid and closed structure of the
socio-psychological repertoire; that is, of its beliefs and attitudes, fueled by emotions (see for
example the role of fear, Bar-Tal, 2001)6. The rigid and closed structural characteristics of the
socio-psychological infrastructure constitute the foundations of the barriers because they are
directly responsible for the freezing state of the contents, preventing even an entertainment of
alternative information that suggests peaceful resolution of the conflict. The state of freezing
is reflected in continuous reliance on the held repertoire of the conflict, the reluctance to
search for alternative information and resistance to persuasive arguments which contradict
held positions (Baron, 1988; Kruglanski, 2004; Kruglanski & Webster, 1996; Kunda, 1990).
This state is underlined by specific closure needs (see Jost, Glaser, Kruglanski & Sulloway,
2003) which means that society members tend "to freeze on their prior knowledge if such
knowledge was congruent with their needs" (Kruglanski, 2004, pp.17-18). The specific
closure needs are elevated by the perceived benefits of being in closure and/or costs of
6
Recently the causes for the rigidity and closure of the societal repertoire in the context of intractable
conflicts were presented and elaborated by Bar-Tal and Halperin, (in preparation).
6
lacking them (Kruglanski & Webster, 1996, see examples of empirical evidence provided by
Bar-Joseph & Kruglanski, 2003; Golec & Federico, 2004). In this situation the handling of
information is characterized by top-down processing: It is affected more by what fits the
contents of the held socio-psychological repertoire and less by the evidence of incongruent
information which even when is absorbed is processed selectively and in biased and
distorting manner (Bar-Tal, 2007a). That is to say, harsh and prolonged conflicts with the
evolved repertoire tend to "close minds" and facilitate tunnel vision, thus precluding the
consideration of alternative approaches to continuation of the conflict.
The Process of Overcoming the Psychological Barriers
In order to pave the route to a resolution of the conflict and later to a lasting peace,
a new repertoire must be formed and disseminated among society members. This
repertoire should include ideas about the need to resolve the conflict peacefully, optional
solutions for conflict resolution that could be accepted by both sides, trust of the rival,
beliefs that the agreement can be implemented, and eventually recognition of the need to
reconcile and readiness to carry it out (Bar-Tal, in press). These ideas have to be adopted
by society members who then should be mobilized for the peace process.
A very general framework of political information processing proposed by the
political scientist, Sniderman (1975), can be useful for our analysis. He proposed three phases
to the process of changing the held political repertoire into a new one. The first phase is the
phase of exposure in which society members are exposed to alternative new beliefs and
attitudes. Exposure depends on various internal societal factors -- among them availability of
communication channels in the society and their openness to free speech, extent and type of
pressure to conformity and the readiness of society members to be exposed to new alternative
information. Once society members absorb the new beliefs, they have to comprehend them in
7
order to store them in their memory. Finally, in order to adopt them, they have to be
motivated.
Indeed the most important psychological process involved in unfreezing is creating
the motivation, first to reevaluate the held beliefs and attitudes, then to search for new
information and ideas, and finally to accept the new alternatives. Hence, overcoming the
psychological barriers that prevent a change of the repertoire that fuels the conflict is a two
stage process: 1. The first is unfreezing of the held repertoire which amounts to an arousal of
a motivation to evaluate the held repertoire. 2. The second is seizing7 which refers to the
readiness to accept alternative repertoire which facilitates peace making and eventually
becomes the foundation of culture of peace. This new repertoire which includes recognizing
the need to compromise, posing new goals, forming new view and relations with the rival,
developing new view of the conflict, and so on has to be first formulated and later
disseminated among society members. This endeavor is especially challenging because in
most of the conflict situations, there is need also for courage to become different than the
majority of society members in addition to motivation to accept the new beliefs and attitudes.
We suggest that the process of unfreezing usually begins as a result of appearance of a
new idea (or ideas) that is inconsistent with the held beliefs and attitudes and therefore
creates some kind of tension, dilemma or even an internal conflict, which may stimulate
people to move away from their basic position and look for alternative ideas (e.g., Abelson,
Aronson, McGuire, Newcomb, Rosenberg, & Tannenbaum, 1968; Bartunek, 1993; Festinger,
1957; Kruglanski, 1989). This new idea, which we call Mediating Belief, motivates to
reevaluate the held beliefs and in fact it leads to their unfreezing on the way to possible
7
beliefs.
On the basis of Kruglanski and Webster (1996) work, we define seizing as the tendency to form
8
adoption of alternative beliefs (that is, their seizing). These mediating beliefs may appear
spontaneously in the mind of people without any special circumstances, but usually they
come into mind as a result of external conditions, which force a reevaluation of the held
repertoire. In our case of conflict, once the mediating beliefs appear and spread among
society members, they motivate them for intensive evaluation of the held repertoire and
searching for alternative beliefs that may motivate the society members to change the
situation and encourage peaceful solution of the conflict. Eventually on a very general level
of description, we suggest that when the peaceful context is well established after peaceful
conflict resolution, then, with time and through a long process of reconciliation, a new ethos
of peace may be solidified. This process is depicted in Figure 1.8 We will now describe the
process in more detail, focusing mostly on the unfreezing part with the mediating beliefs of
losses.
Insert Figure 1 about here
The Unfreezing Process
According to the classic conception offered by Lewin (1947) every process of
cognitive change, in individuals and groups, requires unfreezing. Hence a precondition for
the acceptance and internalization of any alternative content about the conflict or its
resolution depends on the ability to destabilize the rigid structure of the socio-psychological
repertoire about the conflict.
We suggest that the idea that fuels the motivation to unfreeze is based upon the
recognition in the incompatibility between the current state and/or the perceived past on the
8
We realize that the described process is the desired one and not all the processes follow this path.
Unfortunately many of the processes stop at different stages because of various reasons, and some even regress
to early stages. In essence the process does not have to be linear but may be dynamic with progress and
regression.
9
one hand, and the desired future, on the other hand. To state the matter differently, motivation
to evaluate the held beliefs and entertain alternative ones is based on the understanding that
the continuation of current situation (that is of the conflict), will not lead to a better or a
desired future but even may hurt the fundamental goals and/or needs of the society (Bartunek,
1993). In such situations, the forces that push towards change (driving forces) must be
stronger than the restraining ones (see Marcus, 2006 for elaboration). One of the most
important challenges of every attempt to remove or even to moderate the psychological
barriers to peace is to identify both kinds of forces and to strengthen the driving ones as a
substitute to the restraining ones. Moreover, a necessary precondition for the creation of such
motivation is widespread societal beliefs among society members in the inner strength of the
collective and in its capability to cope with the expected challenges that peace process brings
(Marcus, 2006).
From a cognitive point of view, Kruglanski and his colleagues (Kruglanski & Freund,
1983; Freund, Kruglanski, & Shpitzajzen, 1985) proposed a meta cognitive –motivational
theory that explains the process of unfreezing. They point to two major potential contributors
to move the society from the situation of motivation for specific content to motivation for
openness to alternative ideas. The first mechanism is the fear of invalidity also defined by
Kunda (1990) as "accuracy motivation". According to it, when individuals get the impression
that they will be held responsible for their decision, they tend to use a more thorough
information processing strategies. The second mechanism is the appearance of a conclusional
and directional motivation that suggests that the present way of thinking is detrimental to
important goals (see also Tetlock, Peterson, & Lerner, 1996). By and large, both mechanisms
reduce closure by presenting different methods that emphasize the costs of freezing and/or
10
the benefits of openness (Kruglanski, 2004).9 Hence, highlighting the costs of misperceptions
or biased and distorted information processing may induce openness. In turn, when validity
concerns are salient, people tend to rely on thorough information search and consider various
alternative appraisals to explain conflict events as well as entertain new solutions how to end
it (Kruglanski & Webster, 1996).10
Another way to trigger unfreezing is related to the emotional system. From an
affective perspective, extensive studies have shown that emotions may play an important role
in guiding information processing. This assumption relies on the well established relations
between emotions and human motivation for information processing (Frijda., Kuipers & terSchure, 1989). Rogers (1983) in his protection motivation theory suggested in line with the
expectancy value analysis that fear appeals are effective to the extent that they convince the
audience that the consequences are severe and very likely to occur if the recommendation
will not take place. In this line, the meta analysis of fear studies found that use of fear is
associated with increased persuasion (Boster & Mongeau, 1984). Similarly, according to the
“affective intelligence theory” (Marcus & MacKuen, 1993), medium levels of emotions like
fear and anxiety, which are part of the “surveillance system,” will move people from their
basic perceptions, cause them to reassess their attitudes and ask for additional, new
information about the situation (Marcus, 2000 see also Janis, 1967, who also points out to the
9
Empirical studies on the individual level (Kruglanski & Freund, 1983; Tetlock, 1983) found that
individuals that experienced such motivational guidance showed less of a primacy effect in impression
formation, less tendency to use ethnic stereotypes in their evaluations of essay quality, and less anchoring when
making probability judgments.
10
It should be noted that other scholars in different fields of research have pointed to some other
factors that may induce unfreezing. For example, Block and Williams (2002) have found that elaboration about
health issues “unfreezes” information processing and leads to persuasion and greater change appraisal.
11
effectiveness of the medium level of fear in persuasion). Within the context of conflict
studies, recently, Rosler (2006) found that fear was a pivotal factor in all alternative peace
plans within the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Paez (2006), who examined the impact of
different emotions on peace negotiation in the Basque country, showed that in some cases
fear can move people's opinions towards supporting negotiation with terrorists. Hence, it
seems that a monitored and moderated use of fear might be the trigger for unfreezing in the
context of conflicts.
Mediating Beliefs for Unfreezing
We suggest that the process of societal unfreezing on a large scale in situations of
severe conflicts usually begins within a unique context that triggers motivating beliefs which
then instigate openness. Despite our recognition of the importance of the context, in the
current chapter we focus mainly on the contents of beliefs and not on the context. Yet, before
elaborating about the specific beliefs, we will now briefly point out some changes in the
context that may instigate reevaluation of the held repertoire. We call the new context as a
facilitating one that enables the appearance of the new mediating beliefs.
Firstly the context may change as a result of accumulation of conflict experience like
fatigue, vast human and property losses, continuous stalemate and lack of effective
governance. Secondly as a result of major events like the outbreak of a war, dramatic peace
gesture or extreme violent events. Thirdly this may happen as a result of conciliatory and
trust-building actions by the rival, which lead to perceived change regarding the opponents'
character, intentions and goals. Fourthly change may take place because of internal events or
processes unrelated to conflict (recession, hunger, appearance of a new enemy) that indirectly
create the motivation to reassess the centrality and importance of the conflict. Fifthly, a third
powerful party may change the context by an intervention. That intervention can take various
12
forms such as mediation, bombing, sending troops or even economic boycott. Fifthly, coming
to power of new leaders, who develop new approaches to the conflict may create new
context. In addition, arriving of a new generation which has a different look at the conflict
and its implications may create a new context. Finally, a need to reevaluate the situation may
be the result of more global geopolitical processes and events that are not directly related to
the conflict (collapse of a superpower, international climate), but may eventually affect the
parties.
Each of the abovementioned conditions may contribute to unfreezing. The ultimate
goal is adoption (seizing) of alternative repertoire that eventually may lead to the acceptance
and internalization of new ethos of peace. This ethos must act as the opposite equivalent of
the repertoire of conflict, in terms of content and structure, in a way that will successfully
fulfill the same needs and aspirations of the in-group members. But, in the absence of actual
peace and reconciliation the attempt to provide a new socio-psychological repertoire that will
fulfill those needs and aspirations is a great challenge. Fulfilling those needs in the two clearcut situations - intractable violent conflict or viable peace – looks much easier than doing so
in the "transformational" period of time between violent conflict and peace, full of
uncertainty and often with continuing violence and active opposition groups.
Hence, we suggest that in the interim period a society should develop temporary
substitutive mediating beliefs that would trigger evaluation of alternative solutions and bridge
the psychological gap between the repertoires of conflict and peace. Those mediating beliefs
will also play an important role in establishing the rationalization for change and moderating
the cognitive dissonance, embedded in such a demanding process. Therefore, the content of
these beliefs should rely on a solid ground of arguments like: "the change is inevitable", "it
serves the national interest" or even "it is important for national security" (Bar-Siman-Tov,
13
1996). In order to accurately serve its goals, the mediating beliefs should introduce new,
innovative issues into the public agenda and develop into consensual views. Those issues
change the focus of public discourse and bring in new questions into the conflict-peace
equation. In a way, these innovative questions or issues correspond to the basic principles of
the unfreezing process. They motivate people to engage in deeper and more open thinking by
highlighting the current and future threats and costs of the conflict while developing the idea
that the conflict can be resolved peacefully (see also Janis & Mann, 1977).
The basic principles and inner logic that guide the construction of the mediating
beliefs are similar for both the stronger and the weaker parties of the conflict (see Kriesberg,
2007, pp. 38-43 for an elaborate discussion on inequality between parties in conflict), because
both usually have to compromise or withdraw from their ultimate aspirations, goals and
dreams. However, considering the asymmetry, it would be only natural to assume, that the
specific contents of mediating beliefs that motivate unfreezing differ between the groups.11.
We will try to point out to few understandings on what are the more useful mediating beliefs
for the unfreezing process, assuming that they are not mutual exclusive.
Mediating Beliefs about Losses
The basic proposition of the present chapter is that the most efficient mediating
beliefs that can lead to unfreezing focus on losses.12 This proposition is based on insights
from the Prospect Theory (Kahneman & Tversky, 1979) that were adjusted to the context of
conflicts (for more elaborate examples of such implementations of the theory, see: Levy,
11
The lion share of our discussion will focus on the beliefs of the powerful side. This is mainly due to
the fact that in most cases, the radical reevaluations of alternatives, as well as most compromises, are required
from the side that holds most of the tangible and non tangible resources.
12
We would like to note that we realize that society members may raise different mediating
beliefs that refer also to benefits of the peace process and other contents.
14
1997; Geva & Mintz, 1997; Boettcher, 2004).13 According to the prospect theory people are
more reluctant to lose what they have than to gain what they do not have (Tversky &
Kahneman, 1986). This asymmetry is expressed by the fact that the value function is steeper
on the loss side than on the gain side. Through the years prospect theory's claim about the
superiority of the influence of losses vis-à-vis gains, was reinforced by other psychological
theories and research. One notable example is the Conservation of Resources Theory
(Hobfoll, 1989), according to which loss of resources as a result of a traumatic event would
be a more important contributor to the evolvement of psychological distress, when compared
to equivalent lack of gain of resources (Hobfoll., Canetti-Nisim & Johnson, 2006). Similar
pattern of negativity bias is frequently displayed within the wide literature of persuasion,
which generally claims that negative events and information tend to be more closely attended
and better remembered and that they strongly impact evaluation, judgment and action
tendencies (see reviews by Cacioppo & Berntson, 1994; Peeters & Czapinski, 1990). The
premise about the unwillingness to lose what a party has is well anchored in our experience
that no party in conflict yields willingly its already possessed, advantages, goods and
commodities such as territory, resources, wealth, status, power, prestige, control etc.
One of the most important methods to emphasize potential losses due to the
continuation of the conflict and reduce the loss perceived in a peaceful settlement is to
reframe the Reference Point. Prospect theory stipulates that people react more strongly to
changes in assets than to net asset levels, which means that they react to gains and losses
13
It is worth noting that the motivation to reevaluate attitudes and behavior within the context of a
conflict does not always stem from gain-loss considerations. We would like to point out that there is a part in
every society, who judges the situation from moral perspective. Yet, according to the moral development theory
of Kohlberg (1984), most people are not situated in the high stages of moral development, and hence, the
abovementioned group is in most cases a negligible minority.
15
from a reference point rather than to absolute values of gain or loss (Kahneman & Tversky,
1979; Tversky & Kahneman, 1986; Kahneman, Knetsch, & Thaler, 1991). In most cases the
reference point is the status quo, but in some situations it can take the form of other predicted
scenarios like the "aspiration level" (Payne, Laughhunn & Crum, 1981) or even the
achievement of the desired goals (Heath, Larrick & Wu, 1999). Very often, members of
societies that are involved in conflicts are socialized to believe, on the one hand, in the
feasibility of future gains or even victory of their own group and, on the other hand, in the
availability of resources to continue the conflict (Bar-Tal, 2007a). These two societal beliefs
are of great importance in maintaining the conflict. The alternative option of paying high
prices or even a possible defeat is most frequently ignored. Naturally, when the compromises
often required by the peaceful settlement of the conflict are compared to the ultimate
aspirations, goals or even the status-quo (mostly for the strong side), they are perceived as a
huge loss.
Hence, the process of unfreezing should aspire to situate the loss in the conflict, or
loss of various present important gains in the future, or possible future deterioration of the
conflict situation as another alternative, that is as a possible reference point. Within this
perspective, the potential losses must be presented in a concrete way, as relevant to
individuals and the collective well being, as harming central basic needs and as occurring
with high probalablity. When compared to that point, the losses attached to peace and
compromise might seem of less value and a motivation for considering alternative solutions
may rise. We will now outline few of the possible contents that refer to different types of
losses.
Possible future losses.
16
One type of losses refers to costs that can incur due to the continuation of the conflict.
As indicated on the basis of the prospect theory this focus is more effective in unfreezing than
emphasizing the benefits of peace. Society members have difficulty to imagine peace after
living through years in a conflict where the reality is well understood and predicted and the
patterns of behavior became well established and practiced. When they do, the vision is full
of ambiguity, uncertainty and perceived as risky (Mitzen, 2006). As a result, instead of
highlighting the advantages of peace, there is need to arouse fear by pointing out that
the losses from the continuation of the conflict situation are higher than the losses from
the possible settlement of the conflict, which requires compromises. Although this
approach may work for both the weak and the strong sides in a conflict, it is especially
effective for the strong side that already has many of the benefits and is required to give some
of them up at in the peaceful conflict resolution.
Moreover, in many cases, for both sides of the conflict, the basic assumption that
perpetuates the continuation of the conflict is that time is "on our side" and eventually "we
either will win the conflicts or at least will improve our gains in its settlement". Thus of
crucial importance is an appearance of a new belief which states that “time is not on our
side” which means that the future may bring higher costs in comparison to benefits. For
the strong side, a comparison between the expected losses in case of peace and the ones in
case of defeat may bring about beliefs such as "we do not have resources to continue with the
conflict" or "we may pay a heavy price if the present situation continues ". The presented
beliefs are liable to suggest alternative (and not very popular) future scenarios based upon a
new reference point that should be compared to the one of compromise and peace. This new
comparison may motivate people to a much deeper evaluation of all alternatives.
Furthermore, when using that new comparative perspective, the costs that are required by the
17
peace process, may be seen as less threatening in comparison to costs of continuing the
conflict.
Three notable examples for changes that were driven, at least to some extent, by the
described processes can be taken from the peacemaking process in Northern Ireland, South
Africa and the Middle-East. In Northern Ireland, Mac Ginty and Darby (2002) have recently
argued that back in the early 90th, the understanding that future change is inevitable and that
such change might consist of fundamental losses to the unionist side in the conflict, was one
of the most central motivations to reconsider their position and finally to join the negotiations
in order to gain influence over possible agreement. The writers quote a statement by a senior
Orangeman which according to them reflected a common view shared by the unionists:
"Every time something comes along it is worse than what came before" (Mac Ginty & Darby,
2002, p. 23).
Within the context of the South-African conflict, Mufson (1991) have pointed to
similar view of the unfreezing process when suggesting that since de Klerk and his people
realized that "White South Africans' bargaining position would only grow weaker with time"
(p. 124), they opened negotiations and made every effort to move as quickly as they could
towards a viable agreement.
Within the Middle-Eastern context, recently the Prime Minister of Israel Ehud
Olmert, in an attempt to mobilize public support for his peace process, said "A day will come
in which the solution of two states will collapse and we will face a struggle in the South
African style for the right of equal vote. In the moment this will happen, the state of Israel
will be doomed" (Haaretz, November 29, 2007). And on another occasion, he said that:
"Israel needs to internalize that even its supportive friends on the international stage conceive
of the country's future on the basis of the 1967 borders and with Jerusalem divided … If
18
Israel will have to deal with a reality of one state for two peoples it could bring about the end
of the existence of Israel as a Jewish state. That is a danger one cannot deny; it exists, and is
even realistic." (Jerusalem Post, January 1, 2008)
Similar but not identical beliefs about future losses may motivate reevaluation of
existing beliefs among the leaders and the public in general on the weak side. For this side,
unfreezing will be motivated, in most cases, by an immediate willingness to stop the losses
and suffering of the society members, and/or beliefs that in the current stage of the conflict,
the gains that they can get in present peaceful resolution of the conflict constitute the best
deal that can be achieved and continuation of the conflict will not bring more benefits. In
other words, the motivation of the weak side towards unfreezing, can be driven by the
understanding that compromises that current peaceful resolution of the conflict will require
(vis-à-vis the ultimate aspirations), are lower in comparison to possible losses embedded in
the future peace agreement.
Both these themes were emphasized in a speech that was given by the current
President of the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, in the Annapolis
Conference held between Palestinians and Israelis in November 27th, 2007. Most
importantly, he stressed the fact that what Palestinians can get today, is the best they can get
in comparison to future potential alternatives: "The possibilities offered by today’s
conference must not be wasted. This window of opportunity might never open again … we
must not lose this opportunity that might never be repeated". In addition, he pointed to the
necessity of bringing peace in order to put an end to the Palestinians suffering: "This is how
we will end occupation and long years of suffering for our refugees" and he added: "to
Palestinian mothers who are awaiting the return of their jailed sons; to the children who are
dreaming of a new life and a prosperous and more peaceful future; to our brave prisoners and
19
to all of my sons and daughters wherever you are: Have faith in tomorrow and the future
because an independent Palestine is coming"
Past and present losses.
Another direction of the mediating beliefs that focus on losses can refer to the past by
pointing out to the enormous price that the society involved in conflict paid through the years.
These mediating beliefs focus on the direct and indirect costs of the continuation of the
conflict, as accumulation of already incurred costs. Often they first of all point out to the
huge human losses which cannot be brought back to life and there is no compensation to the
families. They may draw attention to the destruction that was caused by conflict and the
continuous suffering of society members. In addition they may emphasize the great financial
investments that come on the expense of spending for various societal needs. This may lead
to public debates which illuminate alternative scenarios in which the conflict resources
(human, financial, societal and psychological) would have been invested differently. A
successful dissemination of these beliefs may create permanent mechanisms which evaluate
every failure through the prism of the huge investments in the conflict when at least some of
them may be also recognized as vain and waste. As previously suggested, these beliefs will
not necessarily convince people in the rightness of peace, but they will motivate them to
unfreeze and further invest in reevaluating the situation.
Apparently, the mediating beliefs about past and present losses were one of the most
important contributors to the change in the American public opinion and then the American
policy regarding the war in Vietnam (Burstein & Freudenburg, 1978). The main theme
underlie the operations of anti-war civil society groups, as well as of anti-war politicians,
focused on the huge costs of the war mainly in the aspects of human life and financial
resources (Small, 1987). Similar, though not identical trends can be identified within the U.S
20
political and societal sphere in reference to the current American war in Iraq. It might be too
soon to be decisive about the results of these trends, but to say the least, they seem to create
some significant movement within the American public opinion (Muller, 2005). Despite the
fact that the American involvement in Vietnam and Iraq does not meet most standards of
intractable conflicts, we use them as an example because they accurately illustrate how
mediating content about past costs destabilize war related public opinion.
New losses related to other potential threats
Another idea that may destabilize the rigidity of the repertoire of conflict is the
widening of the collective perspective, by suggesting that there are more important
threats or goals within the local, regional or global arena. These goals or threats are
exterior to the current conflict, and hence require a broader evaluation of the comprehensive
situation. That broader evaluation may lead to mediating beliefs that refer to potential very
high losses in the future if the conflict will not be resolved. In this case, the costs that are
bound within a viable peace process might seem negligible when compared to potential price
of inadequate coping with the other threats, goals or challenges. In addition identification of
new important internal goals that cannot be fulfilled because of the resources consumed by
the ongoing conflict may also raise the need to reevaluate the situation. Under the new
mediating beliefs, the need to solve the current conflict becomes much more urgent, concrete
and relevant and hence, society members are likely to become more open and receptive to
innovative solutions.
An example for a new internal challenge, that enforced reevaluation about the status
quo of the conflict, can be tracked within the South-African conflict resolution process.
According to Sisk (1989), the rise of a new reactionary right-wing party in the late 80s
(Conservative Party) accelerated a peaceful process of transition because it forced whites, in
21
general, and voters of the governing party (National Party) in particular, to reassess their
political views about the conflict, and develop alternative perspective on the Apartheid
regime. The new political challenge made the National Party leadership realize that if they
will not act immediately, they might loose their long standing control of the government. This
new threat was one of the factors that lead to the process of unfreezing about the policy
towards blacks.
Within a more global perspective, Israeli then Prime Minister, Ehud Barak, had used
new emerging external threats, to convince Israeli citizens in the urgency of the need to solve
the local Israeli-Palestinian conflict, even if the Israelis will be required to make huge
compromises in order to achieve such peace. Barak has frequently stated that the ongoing
international terrorism, the growth of fundamentalist Islamism and the possible acquisition of
nuclear weapons by Islamic countries, outweigh any potential Israeli achievement in future
negotiation with the Palestinians, and, hence, Israel should make any effort to resolve the
conflict immediately (Sher, 2001, p.21). ,
Awareness of closed mindedness and losses.
Finally, in a relatively paradoxical way, for both sides of the conflict, an evolvement
of the understanding regarding the one-sided rigidity of the conflict socio-psychological
repertoire may set in motion the exact opposite dynamic. In some cases, once society
members (or at least some of them) come to recognize the closed mindedness of their own
society, they might push toward examining alternative themes. Frequently these
understandings develop as a consequence of an unnecessary war, or perceived missed
opportunity for peace. These are the prototypical cases in which society members are forced
to acknowledge the costs of the fact that they did not give proper thoughts to alternative
ideas. In other words, they become aware of the losses that took place because of the closed
22
mindedness. Furthermore, such occasions are a fertile ground for the development of even
more daring perceptions, like "the conflict is not right", "perhaps we also contribute to the
continuation of the conflict" or "the other side also has a case", that may further fuel a process
of change.
Seizing New Socio-Psychological Repertoire – Ethos of Peace
We suggest that the presented mediating beliefs about losses fulfill important role in
the unfreezing process on the way to the exposure and seizing of the new repertoire that is
conducive to the peace making. As Figure 1 pointed out, this new repertoire can evolve when
the context is supportive to the peace process. This means that the rival groups at least begin
peaceful conflict resolution process, accompanied by concrete steps to solidify the emerging
new societal beliefs, attitudes and emotions, such as reciprocal acts of good will, meetings
between the representatives of the rival groups, launching peace education and so on (see
Bar-Tal, in press: Kelman, 2004). It is beyond the scope of the present chapter to elaborate on
the process of seizing which in fact is a process of persuasion14.
We argue that the evolved new societal beliefs and attitudes eventually have to
crystallize into a new ethos of peace that can serve as a foundation for peace culture. This
gradual and long process depends on the peaceful context that is a necessary condition for its
evolvement. The establishment of context of peace requires complete cessation of violence,
setting institutionalized mechanisms for resolving disagreements, constructing massive social
education for constructing culture of peace, building cooperative relations in every sphere of
14
Social psychology has developed a number of conceptions and an extensive bulk of empirical
studies through the years that deal with the problem of persuasion and attitude change which are reviewed
elsewhere (see the reviews by Eagly & Chaiken, 1993; Hovland, Janis & Kelley, 1953; Petty & Cacioppo, 1981;
Petty & Wegener, 1998).
23
life, and active reciprocal acts of friendship that promote trust and sensitivity to the needs of
both sides.
We would like to end the chapter with a description of the peace repertoire. Bar-Tal
proposed that achievement of reconciliation requires changes in at least five themes of
societal beliefs that were formed during the conflict and forming of new beliefs that underlie
an ethos of peace (Bar-Tal, 2000b, Bar-Tal & Bennink, 2004).
Societal Beliefs about Group’s Goals: The basic goals and motivations of the society
in reference to the conflict must be drastically revised. In particular, societal beliefs regarding
the justness of the goals that underlay the outbreak and maintenance of the conflict must be
changed (Bloomfield, Barnes & Huyse, 2003; Lederach, 1997). The new beliefs must present
new goals for the society that allow compromise and therefore lead to peaceful conflict
resolution. Societal Beliefs about the Rival Group: Additional crucial objective of the peace
process is a change of the images of the adversary group (Bar-Tal & Teichman, 2005;
Kaufman, 2006; Kelman, 1999; Theidon, 2006). It is important to legitimize and personalize
its members. Societal Beliefs about the Relationship with the Past Opponent: The
development of a peace process needs to facilitate formation of new societal beliefs about the
relations between the two rival groups that emphasize the importance of cooperation and
friendly relationships (Gardner Feldman, 1999; Krepon & Sevak, 1995). In other words, the
well rooted "zero-sum" perception about the conflict must be replaced with a mixed-motives
approach, which enables recognition of win-win or loss-loss situations. Societal Beliefs about
the History of the Conflict: A successful peace process requires also a change of collective
memories that were dominating the engaged societies during the conflict. There is need to
revise these narratives that fueled the conflict into an outlook on the past that is synchronized
with that of the former rival (Barkan, 2000; Borer, 2006; Borneman, 2002; Conway, 2003;
24
Nets-Zehngut, 2006; Rotberg, 2006; Salomon, 2004). Societal Beliefs about Peace: A peace
process requires forming new societal beliefs that describe the multidimensional nature of
peace, specify the conditions and mechanisms for its achievement (for example, negotiation
with the rival and compromises), realistically outline the benefits and costs of achieving it,
connote the meaning of living in peace, and, and especially emphasize the conditions for its
maintenance.
A peace process also requires construction of general positive affects and specific
emotions about the peaceful relations with the past opponent. Positive affects should
accompany the described beliefs and indicate good feelings that the parties have towards each
other and towards the new relations. With regard to emotions, a peace process requires a
change in the collective emotional orientations of fear, anger and hatred, which often
dominate societies in intractable conflict. Instead, there is need to develop at least an
emotional orientation of hope, which reflects the desire for positive goals of maintaining
peaceful and cooperative relations with the other party. This emotional orientation indicates
positive outlook for the future, expectations of pleasant events, without violence and
hostilities (Averill, Catlin & Chon, 1990: Bar-Tal, Halperin & de Rivera, 2007; Kaufman,
2006; Jarymowicz & Bar-Tal, 2006; Snyder, 2000; Staub, Pearlman, Gubin & Hagengimana,
2005).
Finally, we would like to outline the needed qualities of the new repertoire. By and
large, in order to offer a viable substitute to the ethos of the conflict, the repertoire of peace
must equate with the ethos of conflicts' basic structural and essential characteristics. Most
importantly, it must fulfill the fundamental needs of society members, given the new
perceived reality of the conflict. It should especially address the basic needs for physical and
economic security, while providing the content-related foundation stones for new positive
25
social identity of the group, which is no longer based upon the conflict or hate for the outgroup. In addition, the new ethos should be constructed and presented as a new ideology,
offering more important, more moral and more relevant beliefs in comparison to the previous
ethos. The new beliefs should reaffirm the collective identity, as was so well done by the
ethos of conflict. They should also relate to each other and hold together in order to ensure
the stability of the new ethos. Similarly to the ethos of conflict, the stability of the alternative
ethos should be strengthened by continuous messages of threat focusing on the dangers
embedded in returning back to the previous situation of conflict.
To conclude, we note that we are dealing with very long, complex and challenging
process that requires much thought and effort to advance its understanding and then the
optimal intervention. This however is a well-spent effort as it may contribute to the well
being of the societies involved in intractable conflicts and to the international community at
large.
26
References
Abelson, R. P., Aronson, E., McGuire, W. J., Newcomb, T. M., Rosenberg, M. J., &
Tannenbaum, P. H. (Eds.) (1968). Theories of cognitive consistency: A sourcebook. Chicago:
Rand Mc Nally.
Antonovsky, A. (1987). Unraveling the mystery of health: How people manage stress
and stay well. San Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Averill, J.R., Catlin, G., & Chon, K.K. (1990). Rules of hope. New York: SpringerVerlag.
Azar, E.E. (1990). The management of protracted social conflict. Hampshire, UK:
Dartmouth Publishing.
Baldwin, D. (1971). The power of positive sanctions. World Politics, 24, 19-38.
Bar Siman Tov, Y. (1996). From war to peace: The complexity of decision-making –
The Israeli case. (Hebrew) Research Report No. 6. Tel-Aviv: T. Steinmetz Center for Peace
Research.
Bar-Joseph, U., & Kruglanski, A. W. (2003) Intelligence failure and need for cognitive
closure: On the psychology of the Yom Kippur surprise. Political Psychology, 24, 75-99.
Barkan, E. (2000). The guilt of nations. Baltimore & London: The John Hopkins
University Press.
Baron, J. (1988). Thinking and deciding. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Bar-Tal, D. (1998). Societal beliefs in times of intractable conflict: The Israeli case.
International Journal of Conflict Management, 9, 22-50.
Bar-Tal, D. (2000a). Shared beliefs in a society: Social psychological analysis.
Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Bar-Tal, D. (2000b). From intractable conflict through conflict resolution to
reconciliation: Psychological analysis. Political Psychology, 21, 351-365.
Bar-Tal, D. (2001). Why does fear override hope in societies engulfed by intractable
conflict, as it does in the Israeli society? Political Psychology, 22, 601-627.
Bar-Tal, D. (2007). Sociopsychological foundations of intractable conflicts. American
Behavioral Scientist, 50, 1430-1453
Bar-Tal, D. (2007b). Living with the conflict: Socio-psychological analysis of the
Israeli-Jewish society. Jerusalem: Carmel. (in Hebrew)
27
Bar-Tal, D. (in press). Reconciliation as a foundation of culture of peace. In J. de Rivera
(Ed.), Handbook on building cultures for peace. New York: Springer
Bar-Tal, D., & Bennink, G. H. (2004) The nature of reconciliation as an outcome and as
a process. In Y. Bar-Siman- Tov (Ed.). From conflict resolution to reconciliation (pp.11-38).
Oxford: Oxford University Press
Bar-Tal, D., & Halperin, E. (in preparation). Socio-psychological barriers to conflict
resolution. In D. Bar-Tal, (Ed.), Intergroup conflicts and their resolution: Social
psychological perspective. New York: Psychology Press
Bar-Tal, D., & Salomon, G. (2006). Israeli-Jewish narratives of the Israeli-Palestinian
conflict: Evolution, contents, functions, and consequences. In R. I. Rotberg (Ed.), Israeli and
Palestinian narratives of conflict: History’s double helix (pp.19-46). Bloomington, IN:
Indiana University Press.
Bar-Tal, D., & Teichman, Y. (2005). Stereotypes and prejudice in conflict:
Representation of Arabs in Israeli Jewish society. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Bar-Tal, D., Halperin, E., & de Rivera, J. (2007). Collective emotions in conflict
situations: Societal implications. Journal of Social Issues, 63, 441-460.
Bar-Tal, D., Raviv, A., & Raviv, A. (1991). The concept of epistemic authority in the
process of political knowledge acquisition. Representative Research in Social Psychology,
19, 1-14.
Bar-Tal, D., Raviv, A., Raviv, A., & Dagni_Hirsch, A. (2007). The influence of the
ethos of conflict on the Israeli Jews' interpretation of Jewish-Palestinian encounters.
Manuscript submitted for publication.
Bartunek, J. M. (1993). The multiple cognitions and conflicts associated with second
order organizational change. In J. K. Murnighan (Ed.), Social psychology in organizations:
Advances in theory and research (pp. Chapter 15, 322-349). Englewood Cliffs: Prentice Hall.
Bassili, J. N. (1996). Meta-judgmental versus operative indexes of psychological
attributes: The case of measures of attitude strength. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology, 71, 637-653.
Block, L. G. & Williams, P. (2002). Undoing the effects of seizing and freezing:
Decreasing defensive processing of personally relevant messages. Journal of Applied Social
Psychology, 32, 803-833.
Bloomfield, D., Barnes, T., & Huyse, L. (Eds.) (2003). Reconciliation after violent
28
conflict: A handbook. Stockholm: International IDEA.
Boettcher, W. A. (2004). The prospects for prospect theory: An empirical evaluation of
international relations applications of framing and loss aversion. Political Psychology, 25,
331-362
Borer, A. T. (2006). Telling the truth: Truth telling and peace building in post conflict
societies. Notre Dame, Indiana: University of Notre Dame Press.
Borneman, J. (2002). Reconciliation after ethnic cleansing: Listening, retribution,
affiliation. Public Culture, 14, 281-304.
Boster, F. J., & Mongeau, P. (1984). Fear-arousing persuasive messages. In R. N. (Ed.),
Communication yearbook) (Vol. 8, pp. 330-375). Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.
Burstein, P & Freudenburg, W. (1978). Changing public policy: The impact of
public opinion, antiwar demonstrations, and war costs on senate voting on Vietnam war
motions. The American Journal of Sociology, 84, 99-122.
Cacioppo, J. T., & Berntson, G. G. (1994). Relationship between attitudes and
evaluative space. A critical review, with emphasis on the separability of positive and
negative substrates. Psychological Bulletin, 115, 401-423.
Cairns, E., & Roe, M.D. (Ed.) (2003). The role of memory in ethnic conflict. New
York: Palgrave Macmillan.
Conway, B. (2003). Active remembering, selective forgetting and collective identity:
The case of bloody Sunday. Identity, 3(4), 305-323.
Cortright,
affairs,”
in
D.
David
(1999).
Incentives
Cortright
(ed.),
The
and
price
cooperation
of
peace:
in
international
Incentives
and
international conflict prevention (pp. 3-18). New York: Carnegie Corporation of
New York.
de Rivera, J., & Paez, D. (Eds.), (2007). Emotional climate, human security, and culture
of peace. Journal of Social Issues, 63, Whole issue No. 2
Eagly, A. H., & Chaiken, S. (1993).The psychology of attitudes. Harcourt, Brace,
Jovanovich.
Eagley, A. H ., & Chaiken, S. (1998). Attitude structure and function. The handbook of
social psychology, (4th ed., Vol.1, pp. 269-322). New York: McGraw Hill.
Festinger, L. A. (1957). A theory of cognitive dissonance. Evanston, ILL: Row ,
Peterson.
29
Frankl, V. E. (1963). Man’s search for meaning. New York: Washington Square Press.
Freund, T., Kruglanski, A.W., & Shpitzajzen, A. (1985). The freezing and unfreezing of
impressional primacy: Effects of the need for structure and the fear of invalidity. Personality
and Social Psychology Bulletin, 11 (4), 479-487
Frijda, Nico H., Peter Kuipers, and Elizabeth ter Schure. 1989. Relations among
emotion, appraisal and emotional action readiness. Journal of Personality and Social
Psychology 57 (2): 212-28.
Gardner Feldman, L. (1999). The principle and practice of “reconciliation” in German
foreign policy: Relations with France, Israel, Poland and the Czech Republic. International
Affairs, 75(2), 333-356.
Geva, N.,& Mintz, A.(Eds.). (1997). Decision-making on war and peace: The cognitiverational debate. Boulder, CO:Lynne Rienner Publishers,Inc.
Golec, A., & Federico, C. M. (2004). Understanding responses to political conflict:
Interactive effects of the need for closure and salient conflict schemas. Journal of Personality
and Social Psychology, 87, 750-762.
Gordon, C., & Arian, A. (2001). Threat and decision making. Journal of Conflict
Resolution, 45, 196-215.
Goren, N. (2007). Defense treaty for peace? The upgrading of Israeli-US relations as an
incentive for peace, 1993-2000. Manuscript submitted for publication.
Halbwachs, M. (1992). On collective memory. Chicago: University of Chicago Press
Heath, C., Larrick, R. P., & Wu, G. (1999). Goals as reference points. Cognitive Psychology,
38, 79-109.
Heilman, M. E., Block, C. J., & Martel, R. F. (1995). Sex stereotypes: Do they influence
perceptions of managers? Journal of Social behavior and Personality, 10, 237-252.
Hobfoll, S. E. (1989) 'Conservation of resources: a new attempt at conceptualizing
stress', American Psychologist, 44: 513-24.
Hobfoll, S. E., Canetti-Nisim, D. and Johnson, J. R. (2006) 'Exposure to terrorism,
stress-related mental health symptoms, and defensive coping among a nationally
representative sample in Israel', Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology, 74: 207-18.
Hovland, C. I., Janis, I. L., & Kelley, H. H. (1953). Communication and persuasion:
Psychological studies of opinion change. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.
30
Janis , I. L. (1967). Effects of fear arousal on attitude change. Recent developments in
theory and experimental research. In L. Berkowitz (Ed.), Advances in experimental social
psychology (Vol. 3, pp 166-224). New York: Academic Press.
Janis, I. L., & Mann, L. (1977). Decision making: A psychological analysis of conflict,
choice, and commitment. New York: The Free Press.
Janoff-Bulman, R. (1992). Shattered assumptions: Towards a new psychology of trauma.
New York: The Free Press
Jarymowicz, M., & Bar-Tal, D. (2006). The dominance of fear over hope in the life of
individuals and collectives. European Journal of Social Psychology, 36, 367-392
Jost, J. T. (2006). The end of the end of ideology. American Psychologist, 61, 651-670.
Jost, J. T., Glaser, J., Kruglanski, A. W., & Sulloway, F. J. (2003). Political conservatism
as motivated social cognition. Psychological Bulletin, 129, 339-375.
Kahneman, D., & Tversky, A. (1979) Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under
risk. Econometrica, 47:263–291.
Kahneman, D., Knetsch, J. L & Thaler, R. H.(1991) The endowment effect, loss
aversion, and status quo bias. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 5, 193–206.
Kaufman, S. (2006). Escaping the symbolic political trap: Reconciliation initiatives and
conflict resolution in ethnic wars. Journal of Peace Research, 43(2), 201-218.
Kaufman, S. J. (2001). Modern hatred: The symbolic politics of ethnic wars. Ithaca:
Cornell University Press.
Kelman, H. C. (1999). Transforming the relationship between former enemies: A socialpsychological analysis. In R.L. Rothstein (Ed.), After the peace: Resistance and reconciliation
(pp. 193-205). Boulder: Lynne Rienner Publishers.
Kelman, H. C. (2004). Reconcilation as identity change: A social-psychlogical
perpectve. In Y. Bar-Siman- Tov (Ed.). From conflict resolution to reconciliation (pp. 111124). Oxford: Oxford University Press
Keinon, H & Horovitz, D. (January 1, 2008). Olmert says Israel must internalize divided
Jerusalem. Jerusalem Post (p.1)
Kohlberg, L. (1984). Essays on moral development, Vol. II, The psychology of moral
development. San Francisco, CA: Harper & Row.
Krepon, M., & Sevak, A. (Eds.) (1995). Crisis prevention, confidence building and
reconciliation in South Asia. New York: St. Martin
31
Kriesberg, L. (1998). Intractable conflicts. In E. Weiner (Ed.), The handbook of
interethnic coexistence. (pp. 332-342). New York: Continuum
Kriesberg, L. (2007). Constructive conflicts: From escalation to resolution. (3rd Ed.).
New-York: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers.
Kruglanski, A & Freund, T. (1983). The freezing and unfreezing of lay-inferences:
effects on impressional primacy, ethnic stereotyping, and numerical anchoring. Journal of
Experimental Social Psychology, 19, 448-468.
Kruglanski, A. W. (1989). Lay epistemics and human knowledge: Cognitive and
motivational bases. New York: Plenum.
Kruglanski, A. W. (2004). The psychology of closed mindedness. New York: Psychology
Press.
Kruglanski, A. W., & Webster, D. M. (1996). Motivated closing of the mind: ‘seizing’
and ‘freezing’. Psychological Review, 103 (2) 263-283.
Kunda, Z. (1987). Motivated inference: self-serving generation and evaluation of causal
theories. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 53 (4), 636-647.
Kunda, Z. (1990). The case for motivated reasoning. Psychological Bulletin, 108 (3),
480-498.
Lederach, J. P. (1997). Building peace: Sustainable reconciliation in divided societies.
Washington, D.C.: United States Institute of Peace Press.
Levy, J. S. (1997). Prospect theory, rational choice, and international relations,
International Studies Quarterly, 41, 87-112
Lewin, K. (1947/1976). Frontiers in group dynamics. In D. Cartwright (Ed.), Field
theory in social science: Selected theoretical papers by Kurt Lewin. Chicago:
University of Chicago Press.
Liberman, A., & Chaiken, S. (1992). Defensive processing of personally relevant health
messages. Personality and Social Psychology Bulletin, 18, 669-679.
Mac Ginty, R., & Darby, J. (2002). Guns and government: The management of the
Northern Ireland peace process .Hampshire: Palgrave.
Marcus, E. (2006). Change and conflict: Motivation, resistance and commitment. In M,
Deutsch., P, T. Coleman and E. C Marcus (Eds). The handbook of conflict resolution (pp. 436454). San-Francisco: Jossey-Bass.
Marcus, G. E., & Mackuen, M. B. (1993). Anxiety, enthusiasm, and the vote: The
32
emotional underpinnings of learning and involvement during presidential campaigns.
American Political Science Review, 87, 672-685
McGuire, W. (1969). The nature of attitudes and attitude change. In G. Lindzey & E.
Aronson (Ed.), Handbook of social psychology (2nd ed.,Vol. 3, pp. 136-314). Reading, MA:
Addison-Wesley
Mitzen, J. (2006). Ontological security in world politics: State identity and the security
dilemma. European Journal of International Relations, 12, 341-37
Mufson, S. (1991). South Africa 1990. Foreign Affairs, 70, 120-141.
Muller, J. (2005). The Iraq syndrome. Foreign Affairs, 84, 44-54.
Nets-Zehngut, R. (2006). Refugee Tales: 1948 Considered - A historical analysis of
Israeli attitudes towards the creation of Palestinian refugees in 1948. Yale Israel Journal, 10,
12-26.
Paez, D. (Unpublished Manuscript). Emotional responses and attitudes to the peace talks
with E.T.A.
Payne, J. W., Laughhunn, D. J., & Crum, R. (1981). Further tests of aspiration level
effects in risky choice. Management Science, 27, 953-958.
Peeters, G. & Czapinski, J. (1990). Positive-negative asymmetry in evaluations: The
distinction between affective and informational negativity effects. European Review of Social
Psychology, 1, 33-60.
Petersen, R.G. (2002). Understanding ethnic violence: Fear, hatred, and resentment in
twentieth-century Eastern Europe. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Petrocelli, J. V., Tormala, Z. L., & Rucker, D. D. (2007). Unpacking attitude certainty:
Attitude clarity and attitude correctness. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 92,
30–41.
Petty R. E., & Wegener, D. T. (1998). Attitude change: Multiple roles for persuasion
variables. In D. T. Gilbert, S. T. Fiske, & G. Lindzey (Eds.), The handbook of social
psychology (4th Ed., Vol. 1, pp.323-390).Boston: McGraw Hill.
Petty, R. E., & Cacioppo, J. T. (1981). Attitudes and persuasion: Classical and
contemporary approaches. Dubuque, IA: Brown
Rogers, R. W. (1983). Cognitive and physiological processes in fear appeals and attitude
change: A revised theory of protection motivation. In J. T. Cacioppo & R. E. Petty (Eds.),
Social psychophysiology: A sourcebook. (pp. 153-176). New York: Guilford
33
Rosler, N. (2006). The use of fear in the political discourse in Israel with regard to the
resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict: Political programs 2003-2004. M.A Thesis.
Submitted to the Conflict Research Management and Resolution Program, Hebrew University
of Jerusalem.
Ross, M. H. (1998). The cultural dynamics of ethnic conflict. In D. Jacquin, A. Oros, &
M. Verweij (Eds.), Culture in world politics (pp.156-186). Houndmills: Macmillan
Rotberg, R. I. (Ed.), (2006). Israeli and Palestinian narratives of conflict: History’s
double helix. Bloomington, IN: Indiana University Press.
Salomon, G. (2004). A narrative-based view of coexistence education. Journal of Social
Issues, 60(2), 273-287.
Scheff, T. J. (1994). Bloody revenge: Emotions, nationalism, and war. Boulder:
Westview.
Sher, G. (2001). Just beyond reach: The Israeli-Palestinian peace negotiations 19992001. Tel Aviv: Miskal-Yediot Ahronot Books and Chemed Books. (in Hebrew).
Sinclair, L., & Kunda, Z. (1996). Motivated stereotype use: Discrediting women who
treat us poorly. Paper presented at annual meeting of the American Psychological Association,
Toronto.
Sisk, T. D. (1989). White politics in South-Africa: Polarization under pressure. Africa
Today: 1st Quarter, 36, 29-39.
Small, M. (1987). Influencing the decision makers: The Vietnam experience. Journal of
Peace Research, 24, 185-198.
Sniderman, P. M. (1975). Personality and democratic politics. Berkeley: University of
California Press.
Snyder C. R. (Ed.)(2000), Handbook of hope: Theory, measures, & applications. San
Diego: Academic Press.
Staub, E., Pearlman, L. A., Gubin, A., & Hagengimana, A. (2005). Healing,
reconciliation, forgiving and the prevention of violence after genocide or mass killing: An
intervention and its experimental evaluation in Rwanda. Journal of Social and Clinical
Psychology, 24(3), 297-334.
Taylor, S. E. (1983). Adjustment to threatening events: A theory of cognitive adaptation.
American Psychologist, 38, 1161-1173.
Tetlock, P. E. (1983). Accountability and the perseverance of first impressions. Social
34
Psychology Quarterly, 46, 285-292.
Tetlock, P.E., Peterson, R.S., & Lerner, J.S. (1996). Revising the value pluralism model:
Incorporating social content and context postulates, In: Seligman C., Olson J.M., & Zanna M.,
(Eds.), Values: Eighth Annual Ontario Symposium on Personality and Social Psychology.
Hillsdale, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates
Tversky, A., & Kahneman, D. (1986). Rational choice and the framing of decisions.
Journal of Business, 59, S251-0S278
Wertsch, J. V. (2002). Voices of collective remembering. Cambridge: Cambridge
University Press.
35
Context of Intractable
Conflict
Repertoire of Conflict
Facilitating Context
Mediating Beliefs
Supportive Context
New Beliefs, Attitudes
and Emotions
Peaceful Context
Culture of Peace
Figure 1: Process of Overcoming the Psychological Barriers and Building the Culture of Peace
36