Download rural unemployment and poverty in the near east and north africa

RURAL YOUTH UNEMPLOYMENT AND
COPING STRATEGIES IN THE NEAR
EAST AND NORTH AFRICA (NENA)
REGION
by Samir Radwan
IFAD Governing Council Roundtable on
Promoting Livelihood Opportunities for Rural Youth
Rome, Feb. 14-15, 2007
I. INTRODUCTION
Youth Unemployment in general, and rural
youth unemployment in particular, constitute
the most serious problem in NENA Region.
The region has the highest world rates in total
and youth unemployment (Table 1).
Table 1: Regional Unemployment Rates (2003)
Region
Industrialized countries
Transition economies
East Asia
South East Asia
South Asia
Latin America & Caribbean
MENA
Africa - Southern
Sahara
% Rates of Unemployment
Adult
Youth
Total
5.7
13.4
6.8
7.7
18.6
9.2
2.4
7.0
3.3
3.4
16.4
6.3
2.3
13.9
4.8
5.4
16.6
8.0
7.8
25.6
12.2
6.0
21.0
10.9
Source: Samir Radwan “Employment of Arab Youth”, ESCWA, Beirut, May 2006
-Youth Unemployment: an average of 53 % of total unemployment:
Table 2: Youth Unemployment as a share of Total Unemployment
Countries
Syria (1998)
Bahrain, Jordan, Egypt, Algeria
(2000, 2001, 2000, 1992 for the 4 countries respectively)
Qatar, UAE, Yemen (1997, 2000, 1999 respectively)
Morocco, West Bank and Gaza (2000)
Youth to total
unemployment
%
73%
55 – 65%
40 – 50%
37%
Source: World Bank, 2004, MENA Development Report "Unlocking the Employment Potential in MENA:
Towards a New Social Contract"
-A 50% decrease in youth unemployment is estimated to lead to
1.7% to 4.11% increase in GDP.
(Based on 2003 GDP: US$ 1939 billion. Source: ILO, "Global Employment Trends for Youth. GDP data
from IMF: World Economic Outlook, data base, April 2004).
II. UNEMPLOYMENT PROFILE

Table 3 indicates that urban unemployment is
higher than rural unemployment in some countries,
which can be explained by rural-urban migration in
escape from the concentration of poverty,
underemployment and poor basic services in rural
areas.

In Yemen for example, the rural out-migration is
significant due to heavy concentration of land
ownership. In Morocco, the lack of job
opportunities in rural areas discourages job
seekers.
Table 3: Total and Rural Unemployment
Algeria1
Djibouti2
Egypt3
Jordan4
Lebanon5
Morocco**
Somalia6
Syria**
Tunisia**
Turkey7
West Bank and Gaza**
Yemen**
Year
2005
2002
2004
2003
2001
2002
2002
2004
2002
2005
2004
2004
Total (%)
15.3
59.5
9.9
15.5
11.5
11.6
47.4
8.4
15.6
11.5
27.0
40.0
1
Enquete Emploi Aupres Des Menages -2005- Collections Statistiques No. 126- Office National des Statistiques - Alger,2006
2
UNDP, 2002, Profil de la Pauvrete a Djibouti
Egypt Human Development Report 2005
3
4
Rural (%)
42.0
…
9.7
19.4
…
3.9
40.7
9.2
15.1 (2001)
8.2
…
10.0 (1999)
Economic Research Forum, August 2005, Jordon Country profile
FEMISE 2005, Lebanon Country Profile, Institut de la Mediterranee
6
Source: UNDP and the World Bank, Somalia Socio-Economic Survey, 2002; UNDP Somalia Human Development Report, 2001
7
TURKSTAT, Household Labor Survey 2005
** Tina Beuchelt- February 2006-IFAD-Rural Unemployment in the Near East and North Africa Region
5
Table 4: Highest World Gender Gap in Labor Force Participation
Number of
Region
Males
Females
participating
%
%
females
per 100 males
World
79.4%
53.9%
68
Industrialized countries
70.3%
50.5%
76
Transition economies
65.7%
53.1%
91
East Asia
85.1%
73.1%
83
South East Asia
82.9%
60.5%
75
South Asia
81.1%
37.4%
44
Latin America & Caribbean
80.5%
49.2%
64
MENA
76.8%
28.2%
36
Africa - Southern Sahara
85.3 %
63.2%
77
Source: ILO, "Global Employment Trends for Women", 2004
Figure 1:
30
Males
25
Females
%
20
Rural
Unemployment by
Gender in some
NENA Countries
15
10
5
0
Algeria
Djibouti
Jordan
Morocco
Syria
Tunisia
Algeria (2005): Enquete Emploi Aupres Des Menages -2005- Collections Statistiques No. 126- Office National des Statistiques –
Alger, Janvier 2006
Djibouti (1995): UNDP, 2002, Profil de la Pauvrete a Djibouti
Jordan(2003): The Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan Department of Statistics (DOS), yearly report 2003
Morocco (2002) Activite, Emploi Et Chômage En 2002 Rapport De Synthese Direction De La Statistique, Royaume Du Maroc Haut Commissariat
Au Plan
Syria (1999) and Tunisia (2001): Tina Beuchelt- February 2006-IFAD-Rural Unemployment in the Near East and North Africa Region (from
Employment Strategy of Tunisia, World Bank 2004)

The Unemployment Problem in NENA is essentially a
youth problem, with the highest rates of
unemployment in the 15-29 years age bracket.

As to Education Level, unemployment is higher among
graduates of secondary schools and above in a
number of countries.

The agriculture sector did not succeed in solving
problems of rural unemployment, poverty and
inadequate food security. The sector’s contribution to
employment and value added had a downward trend
in most countries (Table 5).
Table 5: The Agriculture Sector's Contribution to Employment and to Value added (%)
Algeria
Egypt
Jordan Morocco
Syria
Tunisia
West Bank
& Gaza
Employ't
1977: 31 1976: 47
1995: 12 2000: 30
1979: 11
1993: 6
1971: 58
1999: 44
1970: 50
1991: 28
1975: 39
2001: 22
1980: 23
2000: 14
Value
Added
1977: 8
2000: 9
1979: 7
2000: 2
1971: 20
2000: 14
1970: 20
2000: 24
1975: 18
2000: 12
1987: 19
2000: 8
1976: 28
2000: 17
Source: Data extracted from: The World Bank 2004, MENA Development Report, Unlocking the
Employment Potential in the Middle East and North Africa: Toward a New Social Contract.
The Unemployment Problem takes different forms:
a) Labor Surplus Diversified Economies
b) Marginalized
c) Oil Rich Economies
Patterns of Rural Development:
(i)
(ii)
The transition to a Market Economy negatively
affected the small landholders and the landless.
(Urban bias).
Globalization and trade Liberalization but major
access problems:
(a)
the difficulty to compete with heavily
subsidized products of advanced countries,
(b)
supply-side constraints related to the need
for capacity building.
III. COPING STRATEGIES
(1) The Supply Side
Demographics: Rapid population growth and delayed
decline in fertility led to a 3% growth rate in working age
population in last decades (world highest rate), now 2.7%.
(a)
Productivity can be enhanced by involving the
private sector in the design of training material, and
by considering the privatization of training services,
establishing skill standards, upgrading the training
centers.
(b)
Rural-urban disparities in education and learning
achievements: “ruralization” needed through a
decentralized education system.
(c)
Increased ICT-penetration in rural areas improves
rural people's 'employability' ; thus the need to
address problems of illiteracy, high ICT-cost ,
inadequate ICT-infrastructure in marginalized areas
and insufficient online Arabic material/software.
(d)
Female employment can be increased through
enhanced infrastructure: roads, transportation,
proximity of schools & childrearing facilities, women
extension agents, and improved access to credit
(ID-cards, birth certificates).
(2) Structural Factors
(a) Earlier agrarian reforms did not solve the problems of
land concentration. Meanwhile, land fragmentation
hampers the use of modern technology & raises
costs of production &marketing.
(b) Success stories: establishment of firms to manage a
number of farms according to economies of scale
was encouraged; and coop's strengthened through
capacity building. State's role is to provide technical
assistance to new owners & simplify land leasing &
registration procedures.
(c) Irrigation water better managed by rationalized
consumption through cost recovery (tariffs),
decentralization & community participation,
technological support & capacity building, & setting
institutional & legislative frameworks.
(3) Drivers/Inputs to Rural Development
(a) Technology: constraints to technology-adoption can
be reduced by establishing buffer prices in face of the
uncertainty vis-à-vis returns to investments, and
establishing insurance systems as a droughtmitigation policy.
(b) Access to credit can be enhanced if Microfinance
Institutions (MFIs) apply best practices including full
autonomy in pricing & collection, and if they access
international finance based on MFI 'rating' by
acceptable international rating firms.
(c) Business Development Services (BDSs) can support
off-farm business for rural diversification purposes
(vocational training, assistance in marketing and in
formalization of status).
(4) Institutional and Legal Frameworks
(a) NENA's CSO sector needs strengthening. Farmers & nonfarm laborers face difficulties in forming/joining unions.
Domination by large landowners could be reduced if rural
coops are strengthened.
(b) Active Labor Market Policies (ALMPs): There is a need to
strengthen the employment search offices, expand their
services to the informal sector and set up village local
offices. ALMPs have better impact if targeted to particular
categories. “Youth sub-minimum wage” could be set at a
lower level.
(c) An improved environment for investment and openness to
the world economy leads to enhanced competitiveness.
(d) Increased regional migration by effectuating Arab
migration agreements, and enhancing integration (through
skill standards & on-line labor market information).