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AURORA ENERGY Adapting to a Changing Climate – Case Study ABOUT THE CASE STUDIES These case studies illustrate how projected climate change may impact on a range of organisations in Tasmania. They provide insight into how some organisations are preparing for climate variability and climate change and show the potential opportunities that are emerging in Tasmania. ABOUT AURORA ENERGY Aurora Energy is a distributer and retailer of energy in Tasmania and is 100 per cent owned by the Tasmanian Government. Aurora Energy employs more than 1 000 people, services about 260 000 customers and has assets valued at more than $2.2 billion, including 22 500 km of lines and more than 200 000 poles. Image: Aurora workers undertake line maintenance Tasmanian Climate Change Office www.climatechange.tas.gov.au CURRENT CLIMATE-RELATED PROJECTIONS AND VULNERABILITIES The Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) project1 provides the State with a collection of climate change projections for a range of variables. The CFT projections outlined below are based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) A2 scenario2 and are discussed in the context of their potential impact on Aurora Energy. Temperature Average temperatures across Tasmania are projected to rise by up to 2.9°C by 2100. The temperature change is relatively uniform for minimum and maximum temperatures as well as in geographical distribution across the State. The number of days over 25°C is expected to double or triple, with some areas experiencing an additional 40 days over 25°C. Frost occurrence is expected to reduce considerably due to warmer average winter temperatures. Temperature affects the Tasmanian energy sector in a number of ways. Hot days reduce energy generation and transmission efficiencies and extreme cold and heat affect peak energy demand. For example, when it is warmer Tasmanians are more likely to install and use air conditioning - resulting in higher summer peak loads. However, the need for heating during warmer winter months may also be reduced (Tasmania’s peak load is currently during winter). AURORA ENERGY Adaptation Case Study Extremely hot days also trigger occupational health and safety (OHS) measures limiting certain outdoor tasks such as line maintenance. Extremely hot days may also lead to excessive line sagging, which can potentially create clearance issues with vegetation. Rainfall Average annual rainfall across the State is not expected to change significantly to 2100, although shifts in seasonal rainfall are anticipated. The East Coast is projected to see a 20-30 per cent increase in summer and autumn; the West Coast a 15 per cent increase in winter falls and 18 per cent decrease in summer; while the Central region is projected to see reductions in all seasons. Heavy rains and prolonged rainfall presents challenges associated with flooding and landslips. Flooding and landslips can damage assets, cause supply outages and disrupt maintenance regimes. Additionally, the program of work can be set back due to restricted access. disruption and damage to assets, in particular poles and transformers. The likely increase in vegetation growth from climate change will mean that Aurora Energy may need to allocate more resources to bushfire minimisation regimes. Restoration of supply following a bushfire in one location is likely to draw resources away from operational requirements in other parts of the State and may lead to a cascade of impacts such as a backlog of maintenance. Storm surges and extreme tides Sea level rise is likely to increase Tasmania’s exposure to extreme tide events. For example, according to the CFT project, a sea-level height that is likely to be exceeded on average once every 100 years in Hobart may be exceeded every 10 to 20 years by 2030 and more frequently than once every five years by 20903. Energy infrastructure that is located close to the sea is likely to face greater risks from increases in the incidents of storm surge events due to sea level rise. Bushfire Environmental impacts It is likely that the changes in temperature, rainfall, wind speed and direction, soil moisture and other climate variables will see an increase in conditions conducive to bushfire in much of the State. Any of the above risks may lead to increased environmental risks and challenges. Examples include oil spills from damaged transformers, bushfire debris (including the ash from treated timber poles), and other impacts resulting from emergency restoration work occurring during outages. Bushfire presents perhaps the most significant climate change risk for Aurora Energy. An increase in bushfire risk days increases the potential for OHS incidents, electricity supply Tasmanian Climate Change Office – Adaptation Case Studies 2/4 AURORA ENERGY Adaptation Case Study ADAPTATION RESPONSES Establishing environmental protocols Although the organisation is beginning to focus on climate risks, Aurora Energy, along with other energy providers in Australia, are somewhat limited by an extremely cost-constrained environment. Balancing increased infrastructure charges with the community’s ability or willingness to pay is a challenging task. Current adaptive actions are outlined below. Aurora Energy is currently establishing environmental assessment protocols for the installation of new infrastructure and has created a climate hazard checklist. Post-event reviews Aurora Energy is currently trialling the use of concrete poles, which are more resistant to bushfires. The organisation is installing 15 km of concrete poles as part of post-bushfire reconstruction on the Tasman Peninsula. Aurora Energy sees opportunities in reviewing its response after the January 2013 Bushfires in order to improve its crisis management and incident control framework. Lessons learned include acknowledging the need for improved community communication updates via ABC 936 radio; that key task personnel should be clearly identified in the control hierarchy; and the need for legally robust response protocols. Non-network solutions OPPORTUNITIES Aurora Energy has begun installing remotely controlled mobile generation units and / or supporting infrastructure in key locations to ensure supply during disruptions or changes in peak load demands. It is too early to identify specific opportunities associated with climate change for Aurora Energy. However, potential opportunities may arise through a reduced winter peak load due to warmer winters. Alternative materials Research Aurora Energy has been taking part in a range of applied research and related activities associated with climate change risks. For example, Aurora Energy has been a stakeholder and contributor in the development of the draft climate change guidelines for Energy Networks Australia. Tasmanian Climate Change Office – Adaptation Case Studies 3/4 AURORA ENERGY Adaptation Case Study AURORA ENERGY’S RESPONSE TO THE JANUARY 2013 TASMANIAN BUSHFIRES 1 The January 2013 Tasmanian bushfires occurred during the Australian ‘Angry Summer’4 where many parts of the State experienced extreme bushfire risk. Of the 40 fires, the most significant events were at Forcett, Lake Repulse, Bicheno and Montumana, where collectively almost 40 000 ha of bushland was burned and more than 200 dwellings were destroyed. The bushfires also destroyed more than 700 electricity poles and 80 transformers, leaving 3 000 customers without electricity, some for up to two weeks. Aurora Energy’s rapid response received wide recognition. The organisation rebuilt one of the trunk lines to the Tasman Peninsula within two weeks (three weeks ahead of initial estimates), successfully deployed mobile remote generation (loaned from Queensland’s Ergon Energy) and engaged up to 200 staff and contractors during the recovery. For more information, including the full set of modelling outputs see http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/climatechange/adapting /climate_futures/climate_futures_for_tasmania_reports 2 The IPCC A2 emissions scenario is based on a high emissions future. The scenario is characterised by an increasing global population, regionally-oriented economic growth, and more independently operating nations. For more information, see the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Summary for Policymakers Emissions Scenarios, http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp =0 3 McInnes KL, O’Grady JG, Hemer M, Macadam I, Abbs DJ, White CJ, Corney SP, Grose MR, Holz GK, Gaynor SM & Bindoff NL, Climate Futures for Tasmania: extreme tide and sea-level events technical report, Antarctic Climate and Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart, Tasmania. 4 The Australian summer of 2012-13 was known as the ‘Angry Summer’, when 123 weather records were broken over a 90-day period. The Australian Climate Commission released a report entitled Angry Summer, arguing that the severity of the heatwave can be directly linked to climate change. For the full report see http://coolaustralia.org/the-climate-commissions-angrysummer-report/. Image: damage to Aurora Energy assets in the Dunalley area following the 4 January 2013 bushfire Tasmanian Climate Change Office – Adaptation Case Studies 4/4