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AURORA ENERGY
Adapting to a Changing Climate – Case Study
ABOUT THE CASE STUDIES
These case studies illustrate how projected
climate change may impact on a range of
organisations in Tasmania. They provide insight
into how some organisations are preparing for
climate variability and climate change and show
the potential opportunities that are emerging in
Tasmania.
ABOUT AURORA ENERGY
Aurora Energy is a distributer and retailer of
energy in Tasmania and is 100 per cent owned
by the Tasmanian Government. Aurora Energy
employs more than 1 000 people, services about
260 000 customers and has assets valued at
more than $2.2 billion, including 22 500 km of
lines and more than 200 000 poles.
Image: Aurora workers undertake line maintenance
Tasmanian Climate Change Office
www.climatechange.tas.gov.au
CURRENT CLIMATE-RELATED
PROJECTIONS
AND VULNERABILITIES
The Climate Futures for Tasmania (CFT) project1
provides the State with a collection of climate
change projections for a range of variables. The
CFT projections outlined below are based on the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(IPCC) A2 scenario2 and are discussed in the
context of their potential impact on Aurora
Energy.
Temperature
Average temperatures across Tasmania are
projected to rise by up to 2.9°C by 2100. The
temperature change is relatively uniform for
minimum and maximum temperatures as well as
in geographical distribution across the State. The
number of days over 25°C is expected to double
or triple, with some areas experiencing an
additional 40 days over 25°C. Frost occurrence is
expected to reduce considerably due to warmer
average winter temperatures.
Temperature affects the Tasmanian energy
sector in a number of ways. Hot days reduce
energy generation and transmission efficiencies
and extreme cold and heat affect peak energy
demand. For example, when it is warmer
Tasmanians are more likely to install and use air
conditioning - resulting in higher summer peak
loads. However, the need for heating during
warmer winter months may also be reduced
(Tasmania’s peak load is currently during winter).
AURORA ENERGY
Adaptation Case Study
Extremely hot days also trigger occupational
health and safety (OHS) measures limiting certain
outdoor tasks such as line maintenance.
Extremely hot days may also lead to excessive
line sagging, which can potentially create
clearance issues with vegetation.
Rainfall
Average annual rainfall across the State is not
expected to change significantly to 2100,
although shifts in seasonal rainfall are anticipated.
The East Coast is projected to see a
20-30 per cent increase in summer and autumn;
the West Coast a 15 per cent increase in winter
falls and 18 per cent decrease in summer; while
the Central region is projected to see reductions
in all seasons.
Heavy rains and prolonged rainfall presents
challenges associated with flooding and landslips.
Flooding and landslips can damage assets, cause
supply outages and disrupt maintenance regimes.
Additionally, the program of work can be set
back due to restricted access.
disruption and damage to assets, in particular
poles and transformers. The likely increase in
vegetation growth from climate change will mean
that Aurora Energy may need to allocate more
resources to bushfire minimisation regimes.
Restoration of supply following a bushfire in one
location is likely to draw resources away from
operational requirements in other parts of the
State and may lead to a cascade of impacts such
as a backlog of maintenance.
Storm surges and extreme tides
Sea level rise is likely to increase Tasmania’s
exposure to extreme tide events. For example,
according to the CFT project, a sea-level height
that is likely to be exceeded on average once
every 100 years in Hobart may be exceeded
every 10 to 20 years by 2030 and more
frequently than once every five years by 20903.
Energy infrastructure that is located close to the
sea is likely to face greater risks from increases in
the incidents of storm surge events due to sea
level rise.
Bushfire
Environmental impacts
It is likely that the changes in temperature, rainfall,
wind speed and direction, soil moisture and
other climate variables will see an increase in
conditions conducive to bushfire in much of the
State.
Any of the above risks may lead to increased
environmental risks and challenges. Examples
include oil spills from damaged transformers,
bushfire debris (including the ash from treated
timber poles), and other impacts resulting from
emergency restoration work occurring during
outages.
Bushfire presents perhaps the most significant
climate change risk for Aurora Energy. An
increase in bushfire risk days increases the
potential for OHS incidents, electricity supply
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AURORA ENERGY
Adaptation Case Study
ADAPTATION RESPONSES
Establishing environmental protocols
Although the organisation is beginning to focus
on climate risks, Aurora Energy, along with other
energy providers in Australia, are somewhat
limited by an extremely cost-constrained
environment. Balancing increased infrastructure
charges with the community’s ability or
willingness to pay is a challenging task. Current
adaptive actions are outlined below.
Aurora Energy is currently establishing
environmental assessment protocols for the
installation of new infrastructure and has created
a climate hazard checklist.
Post-event reviews
Aurora Energy is currently trialling the use of
concrete poles, which are more resistant to
bushfires. The organisation is installing 15 km of
concrete poles as part of post-bushfire
reconstruction on the Tasman Peninsula.
Aurora Energy sees opportunities in reviewing its
response after the January 2013 Bushfires in
order to improve its crisis management and
incident control framework. Lessons learned
include acknowledging the need for improved
community communication updates via ABC 936
radio; that key task personnel should be clearly
identified in the control hierarchy; and the need
for legally robust response protocols.
Non-network solutions
OPPORTUNITIES
Aurora Energy has begun installing remotely
controlled mobile generation units and / or
supporting infrastructure in key locations to
ensure supply during disruptions or changes in
peak load demands.
It is too early to identify specific opportunities
associated with climate change for
Aurora Energy. However, potential opportunities
may arise through a reduced winter peak load
due to warmer winters.
Alternative materials
Research
Aurora Energy has been taking part in a range of
applied research and related activities associated
with climate change risks. For example, Aurora
Energy has been a stakeholder and contributor in
the development of the draft climate change
guidelines for Energy Networks Australia.
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AURORA ENERGY
Adaptation Case Study
AURORA ENERGY’S RESPONSE TO THE
JANUARY 2013 TASMANIAN BUSHFIRES
1
The January 2013 Tasmanian bushfires occurred
during the Australian ‘Angry Summer’4 where
many parts of the State experienced extreme
bushfire risk. Of the 40 fires, the most significant
events were at Forcett, Lake Repulse, Bicheno
and Montumana, where collectively almost
40 000 ha of bushland was burned and more
than 200 dwellings were destroyed. The bushfires
also destroyed more than 700 electricity poles
and 80 transformers, leaving 3 000 customers
without electricity, some for up to two weeks.
Aurora Energy’s rapid response received wide
recognition. The organisation rebuilt one of the
trunk lines to the Tasman Peninsula within two
weeks (three weeks ahead of initial estimates),
successfully deployed mobile remote generation
(loaned from Queensland’s Ergon Energy) and
engaged up to 200 staff and contractors during
the recovery.
For more information, including the full set of modelling
outputs see
http://www.dpac.tas.gov.au/divisions/climatechange/adapting
/climate_futures/climate_futures_for_tasmania_reports
2
The IPCC A2 emissions scenario is based on a high
emissions future. The scenario is characterised by an
increasing global population, regionally-oriented economic
growth, and more independently operating nations. For
more information, see the Intergovernmental Panel on
Climate Change Summary for Policymakers Emissions
Scenarios,
http://www.ipcc.ch/ipccreports/sres/emission/index.php?idp
=0
3
McInnes KL, O’Grady JG, Hemer M, Macadam I, Abbs DJ,
White CJ, Corney SP, Grose MR, Holz GK, Gaynor SM &
Bindoff NL, Climate Futures for Tasmania: extreme tide and
sea-level events technical report, Antarctic Climate and
Ecosystems Cooperative Research Centre, Hobart,
Tasmania.
4
The Australian summer of 2012-13 was known as the
‘Angry Summer’, when 123 weather records were broken
over a 90-day period. The Australian Climate Commission
released a report entitled Angry Summer, arguing that the
severity of the heatwave can be directly linked to climate
change. For the full report see
http://coolaustralia.org/the-climate-commissions-angrysummer-report/.
Image: damage to Aurora Energy assets in the
Dunalley area following the 4 January 2013 bushfire
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