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CCP Graduate Seminar Series Convergence and Bounded Normative Influence Theory A service of the Communication Science & Research Resource Group Convergence and Bounded Normative Influence Theory D. Lawrence Kincaid Center for Communication Programs Bloomberg School of Public Health The Johns Hopkins University Baltimore, Maryland 21202 USA email: [email protected] April 16, 2004 Bateson’s metalogue on knowledge Father: I once knew a little boy in England who asked his father, "Do fathers always know more than sons?" and the father said "Yes." The next question was, "Daddy, who invented the steam engine?" and the father said, "James Watt." And then the son came back and with. . . ”but why didn't James Watt's father invent it?" Daughter: It was because somebody else had to think of something else before anybody could make a steam engine. . . it means that knowledge is all sort of knitted together, or woven, like cloth, and each piece of knowledge is only meaningful or useful because of the other pieces." Gregory Bateson (Steps to an Ecology of Mind, 1972). Problem: INNOVATION There is nothing more difficult to plan, more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to manage than the creation of a new order of things... Whenever his enemies have the ability to attack the innovator they do so with the passion of partisans, while the others defend him sluggishly, so that the innovator and his party alike are vulnerable. Niccolò Machiavelli, The Prince (in Rogers, 1995, p. 1) General Communication Theory What is a theory? • Theory is an explanation of how something happens, based on observation and inference. • Theory is a coherent set of hypothetical, conceptual, and pragmatic principles that function as a frame of reference for some field of inquiry. A principle is a propositional statement about some aspect of reality that provides a basis for reasoning or a guide for action. A proposition is a presupposition about reality, not a fact. What is a theory? • A theory is a collection of theorems. A theorem is a proposition which is a strict logical consequence of certain definitions and other propositions. Two sources of validity: • The logical validity of any theorem is ultimately derived from assertions which are not proved but simply assumed and terms which are not defined but simply listed. • In science, some of the terms must be related extensionally to referents and at least some of the assertions must be empirically verifiable. What is Communication? Communication is [feedback] process in which two or more participants share information and converge towards mutual understanding and agreement, and take collective action. A process is a change in state over time. To form means to give something a particular shape, to shape it into a certain state. What is Communication? Information is a difference that makes a difference: a pattern of matter/energy which affects uncertainty in a situation where a choice exists among a set of alternatives. Feedback, if observed over time and effective, is a series of diminishing mistakes--a dwindling series of under-and-over corrections converging on a goal. If ineffective, the mistakes may become greater, widening the range of incorrect responses ending in a breakdown. What is Meaning? Thought Symbol Referent Ogden and Richard’s Triangle of Reference (1923) Interpersonal Triangles of Meaning A Thought Variety of Meaning Shared within Referent Referent Referent Referent Referent Referent Referent Symbol The context of other symbols Within a social context Thought B Variety of meaning establishes a situation in which a choice exists among a set of alternatives: UNCERTAINTY Which is implied by our definition of information: Information is a difference that makes a difference: a pattern of matter/energy which affects uncertainty in a situation where a choice exists among a set of alternatives. Convergence and divergence as the increase and decrease in shared meaning and perspective A B Convergence Divergence A Mutual Understanding B What is Communication? Convergence is the tendency of two or more objects (individuals/groups) to move towards one point, or for one object to to move towards another. In communication, that common point or goal is mutual understanding, agreement, and collective action. Divergence is a tendency to move away or further apart. Understanding is an inherent and involuntary aspect of information processing. SMCR Model of Communication (Berlo, 1960) Source message Receiver Channel feedback Where feedback is simply “knowledge of results” Switchback Model of Communication (Schramm, 1973) A encoding Message1 decoding encoding Message2 A decoding encoding Message3 And so forth. . . B A Convergence Model of Communication (Kincaid, 1975) Basic Components of the Convergence Model of Communication PSYCHOLOGICAL REALITY A Interpreting PHYSICAL REALITY INFORMATION Perceiving PSYCHOLOGICAL REALITY B Perceiving Interpreting Action Action Collective Action Understanding Believing Believing Mutual Agreement MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL REALITY A&B Source: Kincaid (1979); Rogers and Kincaid (1981). Understanding Revised Model of the Convergence Model with Emotional Response PSYCHOLOGICAL REALITY A Interpreting PHYSICAL REALITY INFORMATION Perceiving PSYCHOLOGICAL REALITY B Perceiving Feelings Feelings Action Action Emotional Response Understanding Interpreting Emotional Response Collective Action Believing Believing Mutual Agreement MUTUAL UNDERSTANDING SOCIAL REALITY and RELATIONSHIP A&B Understanding Fundamental theorem of communication In an informationally closed social system in which communication among members is unrestricted, the system as a whole will tend to converge over time towards a collective pattern of thought and behavior of greater uniformity (Kincaid, 1987). Divergence would result if the system were open to new information or to new participants and information is restricted. Restriction = bounded. Convergence within the system creates divergence simultaneously with respect to other social systems outside of its boundaries. Bounded Normative Influence The Paradox of Innovation • Every innovation begins as a deviation from existing social norms. • Given the strong effect of social norms and pressure, how can any innovation ever diffuse to the point where it becomes a new social norm? • The seeming paradox of how a minority can influence the majority has not been explained well by prevailing social science theory. Diagram of a social network based on interpersonal communication links The next slide shows a diagram of a communication network of women in a Bangladesh Village. • Each woman (node) is represented by a circle and a unique identification number. Communication links with other women are indicated by a straight lines. • The diameter of the circle of each woman is proportional to the number of direct links she has with other women in the network • The distance separating the nodes and their relative positions are calculated and graphed according to the number of links (steps) separating each woman from every other woman in the network. Network diagram showing the position, communication links, and jiggasha group membership among the women of a Bangladesh village Jiggasha group members Non-adopters 4 -3.5 -8 6 Graph of the distance among women in the communication network of a Bangladesh village with uniform contraceptive status Deriving a theory of normative influence from fundamental communication theory Examine the graph of women distributed spatially in a communication network in the next slide. 1. About 30% have adopted contraception. If only interpersonal communication occurs among women near one another with direct links, do you think that over time adoption would increase, decrease, or remain the same based upon this initial state and communication theory? 2. What variables or factors would influence the outcome? Why? Would adoption decline and disappear eventually? If you think it would increase, to what percent? Which women? (i.e., at what positions). Non-adopters Initial adopters 4 -3.5 -8 6 Figure 1. Graph of the distance among women in the communication network of a Bangladesh village with initial contraceptive status indicated Computer Simulation Based on Social Impact Theory Social impact theory (Latane, 1996; Latane, 1981; Latane & Wolf, 1981) formalized this convergence process by means of an explicit mathematical model which takes into account the location and distance between members of the social system. Social influence is "any influence on individual feelings, thoughts, or behavior that is exerted by the real, implied, or imagined presence or actions of others" Persuasive Impact îp = No1/2((pici/di2)/No) (1) where the mean persuasive impact, îp, on each individual in the network is directly proportional to the persuasiveness, pi, of source i multiplied by the frequency of communication of that source, ci , and inversely proportional to the square of the distance between source i and the recipient, di2, divided by the number of opposing sources, No. Social Support Persuasive impact is the sum of influence brought to bear by those who favor one point of view, while social support is influence from those who support the other point of view, defined similarly as: îs = Ns1/2((pici/di2)/Ns) 2) Stability or Change At any given point in time is the net difference between the average persuasive impact and the average social support impact on each individual in the system. Specifically, the change of each recipient is the ratio of persuasive impact to the degree of social support: if: îp / îs > 1 then change will occur for that individual. (3) Outcome Any individual whose average persuasive impact is greater than his/her average supportive impact (îp / îs > 1) will change to the other side. After the new state of each individual in the network is calculated, the overall pattern of opposition and support in the network is changed. The new configuration is then used in the next iteration (time interval) of the simulation. This process repeats until the system converges to a steady state in which no further change occurs. Non-adopters Initial adopters 4 -3.5 -8 6 Figure 1. Graph of the distance among women in the communication network of a Bangladesh village with initial contraceptive status indicated Non-adopters Adopters after 2 iterations 4 Bounded normative Influence With recruitment at the edges -3.5 -8 6 Figure 2. Distance and contraceptive status among women in the communication network after two iterations of the simulation indicating the emergence of a locally bounded, self-sustaining subgroup Non-adopters Adopters after 19 iterations 4 With oscillation at the boundaries Subgroup A Subgroup B -3.5 -8 6 Figure 3. Distance and contraceptive status among women in the communication network after nineteen iterations of the simulation indicating the final division of the village into two subgroups with behavioral oscillation at the boundary Total Village Subgroup B Subgroup A 1 Proportion of adopters .9 .8 .7 .6 .5 .4 .3 .2 .1 0 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 No. of iterations over time Figure 4. Change in contraceptive status over twenty iterations of the simulation by the total village and within the boundaries of its two subgroups Figure 5. Network diagram showing the MDS distance, communication links, and jiggasha group membership among the women of a Bangladesh village Jiggasha group members Random Central Peripheral Constant Increase Final Percentage of Adopters 100 80 60 40 20 0 0 20 60 40 (1000 simulations at 2.5% intervals) 80 100 Initial Percentage of Adopters Figure 6. Graph of the final percentage by the initial percentage of contraceptive adoption with three different starting distributions in the communication network of the Bangladesh village (Fig. 5) Random: High Communication Constant Increase Random: High Persuasiveness Final Percentage of Adopters 100 80 Jiggasha members 60 40 20 0 0 20 40 60 (1000 simulations at 2.5% intervals) 80 100 Initial Percentage of Adopters Figure 7. Graph of the final percentage by the initial percentage of contraceptive adoption in the communication network of the village by three different communication strategies The Principle of Bounded Normative Influence Bounded normative influence is the tendency of social norms to influence behavior within relatively bounded, local subgroups of a social system rather than the system as a whole. Source: Kincaid, 2004 • As long as a minority maintains its majority status within its own, locally bounded portion of the network, then it can survive, recruit converts in the near surround, and establish its behavior as the norm for the network as whole. • The process is accelerated when the minority subgroup is centrally located in the network and communicates more frequently and persuasively than the majority. Convergence and Bounded Normative Influence Theory References Berlo, D. K. (1960). The Process of Communication. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston. Kincaid, D. L., & Schramm, W. (1975). Fundamental Human Communication. Professional Development Module. Honolulu, Hawaii: East-West Center Communication Institute. Kincaid, D. L. (2004). From innovation to social norm: Bounded normative influence. Journal of Health Communication, 9: 37–57, 2004. Kincaid, D. L. (2002) Drama, emotion, and cultural convergence. Communication Theory, 12 (2): 136-152. Kincaid, D. L. (1987). The convergence theory of communication, selforganization and cultural evolution. In D. L. Kincaid (Ed.) Communication Theory: Eastern and Western Perspectives. New York: Academic Press. Latane, B. (1981). The psychology of social impact. American Psychology, 36, 343-365. Rogers, E. M., & Kincaid, D. L. (1981). Communication Networks: Toward a New Paradigm for Research. New York: The Free Press.