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China Annette Lee Quick Overview: Gross Domestic Product • • • 1970 GDP Per capita: $111.82 2014 GDP per capita: $12,900 (#113) GDP Growth: 7.4% (#14) China East Asia & Pacific Indonesia Developing Countries Thailand Quick Overview: Governmental Institution • • Government: Communist • One Party System: Chinese Communist Party Trade: Closed • Sachs- Warner Criteria • Average Tariff rates of 40% of trade • Nontariff barriers covering 40% of trade • A black market exchange rate of at least 20% lower than the official exchange rate • Yuen • A state monopoly on major exports • A socialist economic system Trade Policies of China People’ Bank of China maintained a “managed floating” exchange rate that takes a basket of currencies as reference. • Promotes exchange rate Manufactured focused Where does China Rank? Where does China Rank? Where does China Rank? Bhagwati: Democracy at Bay? “Globalization leads to prosperity and prosperity in turn leads to democratization of politics with the rise of the middle class” “Economic prosperity, engineered through globalization as also the fostering of economic freedoms and associated use of markets rather than central planning, will promote democracy.” Bhagwati: Democracy at Bay? Middle Class (households with annual incomes ranging from $6,000 to 25,000): In 1995: 0% 2009: Second largest middle class in absolute terms 12% Forecasted by 2030: 70% Bhagwati: Democracy at Bay? Literacy Rate in 2014: 95.1% Literacy Rate in 1990: 78% Russia: Gorbachev Glasnost Perestroika China State Capacity Growing economy • High investment in infrastructures: High Speed Rail network • State’s ubiquity: most competitive companies are state-owned Communist Party Civil Society under the control of the Communist Party • Over 500,000 NGOs registered with the government Legitimate Government Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government: • 80% to 90% of Chinese people were relatively or extremely satisfied with the central government • 91% thought the handling of the economy was good Moving towards a Democracy? Panyu Migrant Worker’s Service Centre The number of protest doubled between 2006 and 2010 rising to 180,000 reported “mass incidents” • Wukan residents held their first secret-ballot elections in 2012 • • What does the future hold for China? Xi Jinping 2012: 414,000 disciplined for corruption 201,600 prosecuted for infraction GOAL: Restructure the economy Transform the people who make up the state Bibliography • • • • • • • • • • • • CIA World Factbook and can be found at https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/ch.html Worldbank Global Economic Prospects: http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economicprospects/data?variable=NYGDPMKTPKDZ®ion=EAP • http://data.worldbank.org/country/china 2004. In Defense of Globalization, Chapter 8: Democracy at Bay? Romain Wacziarg, Karen Horn Welch, Trade Liberalization and Growth: New Evidence Francisco Rodriguez, Department of Economics, Wesleyan University Openness and Growth: What Have We Learned? \ Mankiw, N.Gregory The Trilemma of International Finance Rodrik, Dani One economics, Many Recipes: Globalization, Institutions, and Economic Growth The Economist The State of the State, So much to do, Too Weak to do it? http://sites.uci.edu/peofgs/files/2015/03/Economist-state-ofstate.pdf Worldbank: http://siteresources.worldbank.org/EXTABCDE/Resources/7455676-1292528456380/76267911303141641402/7878676-1306699356046/Parallel-Sesssion-6-Homi-Kharas.pdf World Trade Organization: https://www.wto.org/english/tratop_e/tpr_e/tp400_e.htm Chinese Civil society: http://www.economist.com/news/china/21600747-spite-political-clampdown-flourishingcivil-society-taking-hold-beneath-glacier China’s State Legitimacy: http://www.bbc.com/news/magazine-20178655