Download Ten Years After: User-centricity in a messy situation

Ten Years After:
User-centricity in a messy
situation
John Wiener
Presentation to Climate Prediction Applications
Science WorkshopMarch 2008, Chapel Hill
<[email protected]>
Note: see “notes” for additional material, and appendices (hand-out, etc.). The
posted version will be “director’s cut”; presentation will be shorter.
In fact, presentation will be jumpy and too fast, but the ideas are here…
Note: the opinions expressed in this presentation are not those of any known institution, and if captured
exposed, or killed, the secretary will disavow all knowledge of me, mistakes, and all charges.
We interrupt this program…
• Presentation has been suspended, due to
late-breaking notion…
• WHY comes before how.
Corn
seedling
dying
from
lack of
irrigation
- Denver Post, 18 May
06, Brian Rutherford
The old psychiatrist joke..
• The users we want to reach are NOT
homogenous, and SOME OF THEM
REALLY THINK DIFFERENTLY
• or, under-appreciated fundamental
epistemological divergences regarding the
utility and applicability of non-traditional
and non-experiential information may
hinder successful communication…
You have the answer, but do
they have THAT question?
• How to get to THEIR sense of WHY and
meet that…
• YOU spent your adult life learning to think
the way you do. You’re not alone, but
you’re not in the majority.
• Going to “them” and with them may be
necessary.
• And now, back to the program…
Ten Years After What?
• “An exploratory assessment of the potential for
improved water management through increased
use of climate information in three western
states and selected tribes”
• 3 different state teams, political science and
history in Utah and Tribes, water resource
economists in New Mexico, water resource
economist and other in Colorado
• Diversity in places, peoples, problems – so,
diversity in inquiries and reporting
• This talk is on Colorado, since presenter
involved with that one and subsequent studies
Features of Project
• Interview with questions, and climate
information sample
• Re-interview with some new questions and
new climate information sample
• Decision calendar drafted, and then
checked with advisory group and many
interviewees
• Became long-standing relationship with
advisors, some interviewees
• Details posted, retrospective in progress
Since the project…
•
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•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Following the problem: big barrier to use of climate information is inability to transfer water
grant-funded and unfunded studies: climate-informed water bank project, research support
for water transfers (“what could go wrong?”) and next, modeling support for water transfers
Observation of Statewide Water Supply Initiative Phase 1, with extensive comments;
Participation in 3 of 4 Technical Roundtables SWSI Phase 2, Observation of Arkansas
Basin Roundtable in new permanent process, Participation in Water Transfers Guidelines
Committee; far too many monthly meetings and trips and re-schedule and quick-response
memos and updates of big collections of memos… and endless politics…
Comments, oral and written and meetings with a lot of water officials
A lot of presentations on water banking, water transfers, impacts of water transfers and
adverse impact reduction, etc etc etc…
Annual meeting cycles – USDA CSREES, Central Plains Irrigation Assn, Ditch and
Reservoir Company Alliance, Colorado Water Congress, Arkansas River Basin Water
Forum, Tamarisk Coalition, and some academic/scientific meetings…
A few unusual events – American Society of Civil Engineers Environment and Water
Resources Institute, Society for Conservation Biology, US Committee on Irrigation and
Drainage (3 times), and coming up, topical session at Riparian areas conference of
American Water Resources Association, with short article in Water Resources Impact, with
USFS and USGS ecologists and a geography scholar of hybrid ecologies, and David Yates,
model developer and applier.
New survey: 2/3 of sample of South Platte farmers like idea of leasing… (James Pritchett)
Wasted youth, declining health, poverty, and a lot of friends out of town.
Lowlights
• Should have just moved to service area of
CLIMAS or SECC – or Nebraska…
• Failed to pursue the climate applications
hard enough, while tangled up in
institutional change – Now, just have to
scrounge from great stuff already done!
• Failed to affect leadership of agriculture
enough, while working on water leaders
• Stuck with threshold institutional problems
and policy bottlenecks…
Housing Density
Change
In Colorado
Housing Density
Change
1960 - 2050
(C.U. Center for American West, Tom
Dickinson)
2020
2000
David M. Theobald. “Targeting Conservation
Action through Assessment of Protection and
Exurban Threat.” Conservation Biology,
17(6):1624-1637. Dec. 2003
East Slope River Basins in Colorado
South Platte Basin
2030 M&I “NEW” Water Demands and “Gaps”
(Statewide Water Supply Initiative (SWSI) slide except for
comments)
Yampa/White/Green
North
Platte
South Platte
This may be VERY
optimistic!
10,300 AF
Gap
107,800 AF
Colorado
107,600 AF
Gunnison
Beware! Self- reported
“identified projects” !!
Dolores/
San Juan/
San Miguel
Identified
Projects
404,300 AF
Rio Grande
Arkansas
12 to 23% -- or
maybe MUCH
more?
SWSI slide
BIG questions about this: water to acres varies, and the basis
of the demand estimate is uncertain… And, no climate effects!
Meanwhile, back on the ranch or farm… Recent results of the current trends
What is
happening
to the farmdependent
areas of
Colorado?
Some are
being
converted to
recreational - tourism –
second
home…
Some are
not…
Eastern Arkansas Valley – 26% of primary income from agriculture – Very high!
Arkansas River Basin in Colorado
Map by Tom Dickinson, SSDAC, IBS, University of Colorado
Canon
City
Biological and Environmental Issues: The Green is
“under a ditch”… but we have little science on “out there”…
Water Law: maintain pattern of flows…in the river…
Data source: Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper, 2005.
Map by Thomas W. Dickinson, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado at Boulder
Holbrook Canal Headgate Works -- May 2002
Irrigation works are substantial investments with significant effects on
the environment and positive as well as negative effects on the ecology
User-centricity?
• Elaborated in basics of outreach, including
NRC 1999 Stern and Easterling, Making
Climate Forecasts Matter, later studies
• Elaborated in NOAA Office of Global
Programs projects, Human Dimensions of
Global Change, etc
• Elaborated by wide range of researchers
and co-developers of information products
– RCCs, RISAs, NWS FSOs… etc…
• Why mention? To set up a heresy…
Messy Situation? “Policy bottlenecks”
• Federal government level responses to climate change –
– You’re it, mostly… officially… (lost the mirror slide)
– Compare: USDA Long Range Projections, February 2008
One bit of the Federal Level
• USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017
– http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/Baseline/pre
sent2008.htm
• Projections themselves can be
downloaded as Microsoft Word ™ file from
the briefing room website
• Issued end of February 2008…
USDA Agricultural
Projections to 2017
United States
Department of
Agriculture
Office of the
Chief Economist
World Agricultural
Outlook Board
Long-term
Projections
Report
OCE-2008-1
February 2008
Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee
World Agricultural Outlook Board, Chair
Economic Research Service
Farm Service Agency
Foreign Agricultural Service
Agricultural Marketing Service
Office of the Chief Economist
Office of Budget and Program Analysis
Risk Management Agency
Natural Resources Conservation Service
Cooperative State Research, Education, and Extension
Service
“climate” occurs twice, neither use related to climate change;
“climatic” occurs once, in “agroclimatic”;
“environmental” occurs twice in “environmental concerns”
and twice in “environmental regulations”;
“warming” does not occur.
One bit of the Federal Level
•
USDA Agricultural Projections to 2017
– http://www.ers.usda.gov/briefing/Baseline/present2008.htm
• Agricultural Water Security Listening Session, Final Report, 2006
(2004 meeting)
– http://www.csrees.usda.gov/water
• Global Climate Change Briefing Room
– http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/GlobalClimate/
• Schaible, G.D., Ed., 2004, Agricultural Risks in a Water-Short World:
Producer Adaptation and Policy Directions. A Workshop Summary.
USDA ERS, 2004. <www.farmfoundation.org/documents/Z4C1•
WaterWorkshopSummary-Final-V1c_11-8-04.pdf> – Puzzling…
Darwin, R., 2001, Issues in Food Security: Climate Change and Food
Security, USDA ERS Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 765-8
• Schimmelpfennig, D., J. Lewandrowski, J. Reilly, M. Tsigas, and M.
Parry, 1996, Agricultural Adaptation to Climate Change: Issues of
Longrun Sustainability. USDA ERS, AER-740.
• WHAT’S WRONG WITH THIS PICTURE? THESE FOLKS ARE
GOOD AT WHAT THEY DO!
Messy Situation? “Policy bottlenecks”
• Federal government level responses to climate change –
– You’re it, mostly… officially… (lost the mirror slide)
– Other agencies vary widely, and may not be homogeneous
• State level – big variation –
– California, has a water plan, has climate plans
– Colorado: has no water plan (2003 substitute idea: policy discussion,
SWSI, and later IBCC). New Governor has climate response ideas.
• Local Governments – big variation –
– cities with their own foreign policy
– most with serious fiscal constraints, short time horizons
• Individuals/businesses – big variation
– technical capacity and access to professional capacity, or not
– credibility problem in face of fierce attacks on science, or this
science…
• “Middle management” – another group…
Next steps?
• More use of information pathways already in
use (e.g. SUCCESS of SECC et al. using
Extension, CIG and WWA et al. using big
water management and providers)
• More use of middle management levels – e.g.
Yates, Purkey et al. service with AWWARF to
water providers at different scales
• Heresy: Tactical retreat from “user-centricity”?
Between zero and tailored… “Assume
righteousness, aim at the middle”
Working Around Bottlenecks
• “Engaging Inquiries” – questions with some giveback, commitment, and persistence in participation; using
new tools takes time. (Great, but labor intensive…)
• Guides to what you have – they don’t have time to
learn your work; you took years to learn it. We have to
make the effort. Other agency employees should be able to
find what is available and know about its uses. Layers!
– Not everyone should be asked to “translate”, but every product for
out-of-agency-use needs a guide; may be a special position.
• Case study collection – If they can do it, why
can’t we do it? Whose policy is it to hurt my
ability to compete? -- New task to undertake
• I want that Holly Hartmann – Hero slide!
What Sources of Weather and Climate Information
Were Used, 1999-2001
• NO dominant government source except for
Snotel and USGS Stream Gauges
– not NWS direct sources
– not NOAA weather radio
• NO dominant commercial source
– one most popular in E. Colorado, because of
satellite service
• Highly influenced by the personal
experience of the user
Partial Update
• US Drought Monitor – Hurrah!
• NWS direct access – sometimes mentioned now
• Commercial – no known change, but some
consolidation in private services may affect
future.
• MOST IMPORTANT? Drought response
stimulated state water planning -- sent middlemanagement to info. sources and increased use
of information as substitute for [the P thing, that
dare not speak its name…*]
• Question: Huge number of new sources now -Too hard to distinguish? -- Job for the guide?
What information when?
• The “decision calendar” – still underused?
• Easy verification by users/interviewees and
others (advisors…)
• Another use: for coordination of multiple
requests, and multiple interests
• And, useful for re-visits and re-thinking –
“Engaging Inquiries” –build relationships with
potential users – strategic way to reach out
• Merle Haggard factor: if we make it through
December… tax allocations will be done…
Get that forecast out in time to use it !
What information was wanted? “Shopping Lists”
Nearer-term interests in weather and climate information:
•
(1) Flash flood threats and basic monitoring gaps
•
(2) Soil moisture and evaporative losses information
•
(3) "Calibration" of forecasts for urban areas to apply better to rural areas, identification of
common storm and general weather patterns
•
(4) Forms of information – more visuals, mapped, and "now versus last year versus normal"
•
(5) Local packages of information were often requested
•
(6) Improved and additional snow and SNOTEL information
•
(7) Frost dates – forecast of different from normal
•
(8) Fire and burning weather – for wildfire threat and field or prescribed burning
•
(9) Range grass growing conditions – soil moisture and windiness too
•
(10) Range cattle watering conditions and small reservoir ET losses
•
(11) Cloud seeding forecasts (snowmaking and hail stone size reduction)
Longer-term interests, perhaps relevant to research orientation, as well as presentation:
•
(A) Irrigation season forecasting, for water banking and market operations
•
(B) Localization of forecasts; geographic specificity
•
(C) Requests and concerns for long-term climatology support for decision-making and risk
understanding
•
(D) The concept and application of "probable maximum precipitation" in dam safety
•
(E) Reliability standards and measures of confidence for forecast information
•
(F) River forecast center incorporation of forecast information
•
(G) Forthcoming growing season degree-days.
Highlight?: information wanted
• Soil moisture and evaporative losses –
(okay, duh…) but increasingly valuable for
range management as well as farming
• Wide range of applications because so
central in so many processes
• Management of a large amount of land,
public and private, forests, habitat, etc
• Climate change may be more stressful
• So… wasn’t a breakthrough idea, but was
VERY important to the users
Dim-light? information wanted
• Visuals, mapped information – GREAT
progress on this! – florescence of GIS, etc
• Now/coming up vs normal vs last year ?–
They said best for the agricultural sector
interviewees to compare forecasts to
known points of reference… (not same as
analogue years – may relate to different
information storage and different sets of
variables (markets…etc)? I agreed.
• Problem: the trouble with normal
(sorry, Bruce)
• Adaptation - to what? Better adaptive capacity
Highlight: information wanted
• “CALIBRATION” – help with two goals:
• How to relate my place to forecast for
another place? If snowing there at noon,
when will it get here? Weather patterns?
• How to relate my place to observations
and modeling for points of reference?
– E.g. Colorado Agricultural Meteorology Net –
designed for farming; how use for range?
• Basic in some decision support systems;
not down-scaling (cheaper? quicker?); prescribe useful
adjustments to correlations
Sneaking up one of the goals
• Want: Irrigation season forecasting for water management
(water banking, etc.) and soil moisture…
• In place: soil moisture monitoring already urged
• Next step: irrigation scheduling DSS in place – could also
be used for scenario testing
• Next step: deficit irrigation/limited irrigation – less for
vegetative growth stages, plenty for reproductive stage
• Next step: Water Optimizer (NE) – DSS for deficit irrigation
(or limited irrigation) – e.g. use – allocate between crops
and fallow for maximum return on known water; now
Colorado Crop Water Allocator also.
• And now? Daily sequences for a forecast with P of
occurrence please! Meet need?
• Add that to hydrology forecast – Success?
Re: last year’s talk…Crop Switching is Possible
Moving Toward ClimateResponsive
Water Management
appended to CPASW 2008 set
John Wiener
Research Associate, University of Colorado, and
Visitor, National Center for Atmospheric Research
Brief Co-presentation with David Yates
Colorado Water Congress
January 25, 2008
Copies of summaries are provided
<[email protected]>
Colorado Front Range
(Center of the American West, on
the internet with two other cases)
I25
Boyd
Lake
One square mile
Slide by Tom Dickinson, IBS and Geography, Source: National Agriculture
Imagery Program (NAIP),USDA-FSA Aerial Photography Field Office
What would be “climate responsive water
management”?
• Has to be within water law
• Has to include climate variation and change as
one of many conditions
• OUGHT to help achieve at least goals in water
management
• OUGHT to help achieve goals affected by water
management
• WON’T succeed without engagement and
acceptance by those involved
• After SWSI, focus on agriculture-urban transfers -“the new last water hole” (apologies to Dr Tyler!)
Goals in water management
• Optimal use -- max economic benefit -– return on use of water -- need capacity to do better -- big progress by
others in climate applications in agriculture
– flexibility to respond to changes in social and physical environment -need will and authority to do better
– complication: long-term valuation problems -- soil...
• Optimal use -- certainty to support
investments and planning
– certainty of supply or adequate substitute
• for water providers -- no real substitute
• for agriculture -- may be partial substitute
– complication: variability of supply and demand
• need storage and flexibility in re-allocation
Goals affected by water
management
• Optimal use -- max social benefit -–
–
–
–
complication: valuation of “third-party” interests
complication: participation of third-parties helped or hurt by changes
complication: public interest identification and public participation
complication: recreational and amenity interests; SWSI nonconsumptive needs assessment partly answers
• Optimal Use -- maintain environment
– water quality; SWSI non-consumptive needs assessment partly
answers
– habitat - problem: “hybrid ecology”
– avoid cumulative impact thresholds
The green area includes land
unintentionally wetted by
irrigation -- it may now be
important habitat that we
should pay to secure
Data source: Landsat Enhanced Thematic Mapper, 2005.
Map by Thomas W. Dickinson, Institute of Behavioral Science,
University of Colorado at Boulder
Conditions for success
• Meet transferor goals, transferee goals
• Develop answers with participants
– Even the legislature can’t innovate without adequate engagement;
expand participation (in all ways - $ too)
• Introduce innovations in the accepted ways
– water providers’ technical evaluation and leading utility
demonstrations
– agricultural innovations work through extension and demonstration
• Get the new ways figured out before all the
water needed is transferred in the old ways!
• Progress so far… please see summaries (in
the handouts for CPASW 2008)