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Austral Ecology (2005) 30, 201–209 Does intraspecific niche partitioning in a native predator influence its response to an invasion by a toxic prey species? JONATHAN K. WEBB,1* RICHARD SHINE2 AND KEITH A. CHRISTIAN1 1 School of Science, Charles Darwin University, Darwin, Northern Territory, and 2School of Biological Sciences, The University of Sydney, New South Wales, Australia Abstract The introduced and highly toxic cane toad (Bufo marinus) is rapidly spreading across northern Australia where it may affect populations of large terrestrial vertebrate predators. The ecological impact of cane toads will depend upon the diets, foraging modes and habitat use of native predators, and their feeding responses to cane toads. However, intraspecific niche partitioning may influence the degree of vulnerability of predators to toxic prey, as well as the time course of the impact of alien invaders on native species. We studied the diet of the northern death adder Acanthophis praelongus and their feeding responses to cane toads. In the laboratory, death adders from all size classes and sexes readily consumed frogs and cane toads. Diets of free ranging A. praelongus from the Adelaide River floodplain were more heterogeneous. Juvenile snakes ate mainly frogs (39% of prey items) and small scincid lizards (43%). Both sexes displayed an ontogenetic dietary shift from lizards to mammals, but adult males fed on frogs (49%) and mammals (39%) whereas adult females (which grew larger than males) fed mainly on mammals (91%) and occasionally, frogs (9%). Feeding rates and body condition of adult snakes varied temporally and tracked fluctuations in prey availability. These results suggest that cane toads may negatively affect populations of northern death adders in the Darwin region. However, we predict that different size and sex classes of A. praelongus will experience differential mortality rates over different timescales. The initial invasion of large toads may affect adult males, but juveniles may be unaffected until juvenile toads appear the following year, and major affects on adult female death adders may be delayed until annual rainfall fluctuations reduce the availability of alternative (rodent) prey. Key words: conservation, population, predation, snake, toxic prey. INTRODUCTION The introduction of exotic animals to new environments can have profound effects on native species and ecological communities (Vitousek et al. 1996; Fritts & Rodda 1998). Exotic species can negatively affect natural ecosystems by spreading novel diseases, disturbing or destroying habitats, displacing or eliminating species through competition, predation or herbivory, and altering native vegetation and fire regimes (Mack et al. 2000). Given the magnitude of these effects, predicting the impact of invading species on native species is an important goal for ecologists and conservation biologists (Ricciardi & Rasmussen 1998; Mack et al. 2000). However, numerous factors complicate any such attempt, even in apparently straightforward cases. One such case is the introduction of highly toxic prey species that resemble native prey species. When *Corresponding author. Present address: School of Biological Sciences A08, The University of Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia (Email: [email protected]) Accepted for publication May 2004. predators are naïve to novel toxins, they may be unable to detect or detoxify them, so that the effects of toxic invaders on native predators can be dramatic (Brodie & Brodie 1999). To survive an invasion of toxic prey, predators must learn how to avoid toxic prey or they must evolve an ability to detoxify the novel toxins (Brodie & Brodie 1999). To predict the ecological impact of invasion by toxic prey, one needs to know the probable eventual geographical range of the invader, the feeding habits of native predators and the physiological resistance of those predators to the novel toxin. A recent study on the invasion of the introduced cane toad (Bufo marinus) into northern Australia provides these data, and predicts that the toad will seriously affect 30% of Australian snake species (Phillips et al. 2003). Size-structured interactions between predators and prey can also influence the impact of an exotic invader (Werner & Gilliam 1984; Wootton 1994). In many tropical snake populations, individuals span a wide range of body sizes, and because the head size of a snake limits the size of prey that it can ingest, this body-size variation has strong implications for dietary composition (Houston & Shine 1993). For example, 202 J. K . W E B B E T A L . juvenile snakes often eat smaller prey, and different prey species, than do conspecific adults (Webb & Shine 1993), and males often take different sizes and kinds of prey than do females (Houston & Shine 1993; Pearson et al. 2002). The resultant intraspecific niche partitioning means that the arrival of a novel toxic prey type may differentially affect different size, age or sex classes within a population. The invasion of the highly toxic cane toad B. marinus across northern Australia offers an opportunity to examine the ways in which size-structured interactions affect the ecological impact of toxic prey on native species. Cane toads contain potent toxins that are unique to toads (Daly et al. 1987), and all life stages (eggs, tadpoles, metamorphs and adults) are highly toxic to many invertebrates and vertebrates (Licht 1968; Covacevich & Archer 1975; Crossland & Alford 1998). The cane toad is currently spreading across northern Australia and is predicted eventually to occupy an area of approximately 2 million km2 (Sutherst et al. 1995). Cane toads have recently invaded Arnhem Land, Kakadu National Park and the Mary River floodplain, and based on their current rate of spread (up to 100 km per year in river catchments), they will colonize most of the Top End of the Northern Territory in the next 20 years (Freeland & Martin 1985; van Dam et al. 2002). In Australia, cane toads occupy a broad range of habitats, attain high population densities (up to 2138 individuals per hectare, Freeland 1986), and have much higher fecundity than native frogs (Lever 2001). To date, most experimental studies on the effects of toads have focused on fish, frogs and aquatic invertebrates, and several authors have concluded that toads may not adversely affect these organisms (Freeland & Kerin 1988; Crossland 1998; Williamson 1999). By contrast, numerous anecdotal reports suggest that cane toads have adversely affected populations of large terrestrial vertebrate predators, particularly quolls, varanid lizards and snakes (reviewed by Lever 2001). However, the question of whether cane toads seriously affect populations of native vertebrate predators remains controversial (Freeland 1984; Burnett 1997). Most significantly, two recent experimental studies suggest that cane toads have contributed to the local extinction of northern quoll (Dasyurus hallucatus) populations in Kakadu National Park (Watson & Woinarski 2003; M. Oakwood, unpubl. data 2003). Here we investigate the likely impact of cane toads on populations of the northern death adder Acanthophis praelongus, an ambush-foraging snake that inhabits tropical floodplains and woodlands across northern Australia. Several authors have predicted that the cane toad will seriously affect death adder populations in the Top End (van Dam et al. 2002; Phillips et al. 2003). However, these studies have assumed that a high proportion of individuals within a population will eat frogs, and that all frog-eating individuals will eat cane toads. Testing this assumption is critical for predicting the overall impact of cane toads on tropical snake faunas (Phillips et al. 2003). Our approach in this study was twofold. First, we studied a free-ranging population of A. praelongus on the Adelaide River floodplain, to determine which snake size classes feed on frogs, and thus, are likely to experience mortality from feeding on cane toads. At the same time, we used pitfall and box traps to estimate the range of prey types available to snakes, and to establish whether prey abundance fluctuated temporally. The second part of our study involved a laboratory experiment to test the critical assumption that death adders that feed on frogs would also feed on cane toads. Our data come from a population of snakes that have not yet encountered cane toads, but will probably contact toads within one year. METHODS Study species and study sites The northern death adder is a medium-sized (to 90 cm snout–vent length (SVL), 400 g), viviparous, nocturnal, elapid snake that inhabits a range of habitats (open woodlands, floodplains, rocky hills) across northern Australia (Cogger 2000). We studied the feeding ecology of A. praelongus on the Adelaide River floodplain 70 km east of Darwin, Northern Territory, Australia. Males and females from this population grow rapidly and reach sexual maturity at 12 and 18 months, respectively (Webb et al. 2002). Female death adders attain larger body sizes than do male conspecifics (mean adult SVL of 612 vs. 457 mm, respectively, Webb et al. 2002). Males and females have similar-sized heads at the same body size (Shine 1980). The vegetation on our study sites (east of Beatrice Hill) has been altered by the construction of levee banks and the introduction of para grass Brachiaria mutica for buffalo grazing, while the western floodplain has large stands of introduced Mimosa pigra. Temperatures are high year-round (monthly mean maxima 31–34∞C, minima 15–24∞C), but precipitation is highly seasonal with 75% of the annual rain falling from December to March. Field sampling From November 1996 to November 1999, we captured death adders by slowly driving the Arnhem Highway (4 km either side of Adelaide River) and the Beatrice Hill road. We searched for snakes from 15 min before sunset until 1 h after dusk (when snakes E F F E C T S O F C A N E TOA D S O N D E AT H A D D E R S were most active) on 16 nights each month. Within 16 h of capture, we weighed (to the nearest gram), measured (SVL and tail length, to the nearest millimetre) and determined the sex (by manual eversion of hemipenes) of all snakes (see Webb et al. 2002 for details). We palpated stomachs for prey but did not force snakes to regurgitate prey items. Snakes with large prey items in stomachs were kept at ambient temperature until they defecated (usually within 2– 3 days). We recorded whether snakes defecated during handling and placed any fecal samples in vials with 70% ethanol for subsequent prey identification. Prey were identified to species where possible using hair analysis (Brunner & Coman 1974) and by microscopic comparison of scales and hair with those from our reference collection. Except for gravid females or snakes with large prey in their stomachs, we released each snake at the point of capture within 24 h. We used pitfall-traps and Elliott traps to estimate prey availability during the wet and dry seasons. To sample small lizards and ground-dwelling frogs, we placed 29 pitfall traps (20 L plastic buckets) in three lines of 10, 10 and 9 traps (each trap 10 m apart, each trap line 20 m apart) on the Adelaide River floodplain adjacent to Beatrice Hill. We opened pitfall-traps for 4–6 consecutive nights during the 1997 early wet season (20 October-6 November 1997, 116 trap nights), 1998 dry season (10 June-14 August, 155 trap nights) and 1999 dry season (21 July-2 August 1999, 174 trap nights). We were unable to open pitfall-traps during the wet seasons of 1997 or 1998 because of cyclonic flooding in both years. We used Elliott traps baited with a mixture of peanut butter and oats to capture small mammals. We placed traps on two transects of 25 traps (each trap spaced 10 m apart), one transect in the open floodplain and another adjacent to thick para grass on the road edge. Radio-tagged death adders used both habitat types during the study ( J. Webb, unpubl. data 1999). During each trapping period, we placed traps in the same locations, opened them for 3–4 consecutive nights and checked them at sunrise. Sampling dates and total number of trap nights were 12–14 August 1998 (150 trap nights), 27– 29 November 1998 (75 trap nights) and 29 July-1 August 1999 (200 trap nights). For captures of frogs and lizards, we recorded trap number, SVL and tail length (with a ruler, to the nearest millimetre) and sex, but we did not individually mark them. For the small marsupial Planigale maculata, we measured body length (SVL, with a ruler, to the nearest millimetre), mass (to nearest 0.1 g), and sex, and individually toe-clipped each animal. For each mammal captured in Elliott traps (Rattus colletti and Melomys burtoni) we recorded the trap number, and body length, mass (to the nearest gram), sex, and reproductive status. Each mammal was marked with a small individually numbered ear tag. 203 Feeding responses of death adders in the laboratory The critical assumption underlying predictions of cane toad impact is that all individuals within a predator population will treat toads as potential prey items. However, some size and/or sex classes within a population might not consume toads whereas other size/sex classes might feed readily upon them. To test this assumption, we captured 33 snakes (9 females: mean SVL = 453 mm, range 300–690 mm; 24 males: mean SVL = 430 mm, range 292–550 mm) from the Darwin region during the 2002–2003 wet season. We placed snakes individually in plastic cages measuring 38 cm ¥ 31 cm ¥ 23 cm to 45 cm ¥ 35 cm ¥ 26 cm, depending on snake body size, in a room maintained at 28–32∞C, under natural photoperiod. We kept snakes in captivity for brief periods (<1 month) and tested their feeding responses to terrestrial frogs and cane toads. We offered each snake one to eight individual frogs (mean = 4.76) from seven species that were locally abundant on the Adelaide River floodplain. For each trial, we placed a freshly collected ingestible-sized frog in each death adder’s cage in the evening (17.00 hours), and recorded its fate (alive, ingested or killed but not eaten) the following morning (08.00 hours). Two days later, we offered the same snake a different anuran species, and recorded its fate. The order in which each frog species was presented to snakes was randomized, but occasionally we made multiple tests on the same snake with the same prey species when alternative frog species were unavailable. Because cane toads are highly toxic to death adders (Phillips et al. 2003), we only offered cane toads to 19 randomly chosen snakes. To minimize the risk of mortality to these snakes, we vigorously squeezed the parotid glands of each toad to expel the toxin (Meyer & Linde 1971) before placing it into the snake’s cage. The feeding trials allow us to examine the influence of sex and body size on the propensity of the snakes to treat anurans and cane toads as prey. RESULTS Prey availability on the floodplain We captured three species of small mammals, three species of scincid lizards and two species of frogs in pitfall and Elliott traps (Table 1). Vertebrates captured most frequently in pitfall-traps included small skinks (Carlia gracilis), frogs (Limnodynastes convexiusculus), and small carnivorous marsupials (P. maculata). Larger skinks (Glaphyromorphus douglasi and Tiliqua scincoides) were captured less frequently (Table 1). Two species of rodent, the grassland mouse M. burtoni and the dusky rat R. colletti were captured in Elliott 204 J. K . W E B B E T A L . Table 1. Numbers of amphibians, reptiles and small mammals captured in pitfall and Elliott traps during the wet and dry seasons on the Adelaide River floodplain adjacent to Beatrice Hill Prey species Frogs Limnodynastes convexiusculus Litoria nasuta Lizards Carlia gracilis Glaphyromorphus douglasi Tiliqua scincoides Snakes Rhinoplocephalus pallidiceps Mammals M. burtoni (Elliott traps) P. maculata R. colletti (Elliott traps) Year and season 1998 Wet Prey size (SVL or mass) 1997 Wet 1998 Dry 1999 Dry 20–40 mm 35–40 mm 71 2 22 0 – – 25 0 24–41 mm 50–83 mm 300 mm 4 6 0 22 0 0 – – – 17 2 1 220 mm 0 0 – 1 18–50 g 2–20 g 42–200 g – – – 11 (0.07) 16 (0.09) 0 (0) 1 (0.01) 18 (0.15) 35 (0.47) 24 (0.12) 3 (0.02) 39 (0.20) Numbers of individual Planigale maculata, Melomys burtoni and Rattus colletti captured per trap night (captures/total trap nights) are shown in parentheses. The symbol ‘–’ denotes that no trapping was carried out in that season due to cyclonic flooding of the study sites. No Elliott traps were available during the 1997 wet season. SVL, snout–vent length. Table 2. Prey items recorded from 114 individual northern death adders Acanthophis praelongus from the Adelaide River floodplain, Northern Territory, Australia Juveniles Prey species Lizards Carlia gracilis Glaphyromorphus douglasi Frogs Unidentified frogs Mammals Melomys burtoni Planigale maculata Rattus colletti Birds Unidentified bird Males SVL < 400 mm (n = 32) n % F Adults Females SVL < 500 mm (n = 41) n % F Males SVL ≥ 400 mm (n = 30) n % F Females SVL ≥ 500 mm (n = 11) n % F 11 4 34.4 12.5 34.4 12.5 17 1 37.0 2.2 41.5 2.4 2 2 6.1 6.1 6.7 6.7 0 0 0 0 0 0 13 40.6 40.6 17 37.0 41.5 16 48.5 50.0 1 9.1 9.1 1 3 0 3.1 9.4 0.0 3.1 9.4 0.0 2 7 0 4.3 15.2 0.0 4.9 17.1 0 7 5 1 21.2 15.1 3.0 23.3 16.7 3.3 2 1 7 18.2 9.1 63.6 18.2 9.1 63.6 0 0.0 0.0 1 4.3 2.4 0 0.0 0.0 0 0 0 The table shows the number of individual snakes containing each prey type (n), the percentage of the total numerical diet (%) and the proportion of individual snakes containing each prey type (F). Numbers in parentheses show the number of individual snakes that contained identifiable prey items. Note that some snakes had ingested multiple prey types. SVL, snout– vent length. traps. The abundance of both of these species varied temporally at our study site (Table 1). The dusky rat was not captured on the floodplain in the 1998 dry season, but was captured in large numbers during the 1998–99 wet season and the 1999 dry season (Table 1). Diets of death adders in the field Dietary information was obtained from 114 individual snakes. Northern death adders fed on two species of scincid lizards and three species of small mammals, plus unidentified frogs and birds (Table 2). Most death adders sampled had only ingested a single prey type, but three juvenile females and one adult male had ingested skinks and P. maculata, one juvenile female had eaten M. burtoni and a bird, and another adult male had ingested M. burtoni and R. colletti (Table 2). The diet of juvenile snakes consisted mainly of small lizards (43% of numerical diet) and frogs (39%, Table 2). A strong ontogenetic shift in prey type from lizards to mammals occurred in both sexes. Adult males rarely consumed lizards, and fed mainly on frogs (48% of E F F E C T S O F C A N E TOA D S O N D E AT H A D D E R S 205 25 20 15 10 5 0 100–200 201–300 301–400 401–500 > 500 Snake snout-vent length (mm) Fig. 1. Relationship between snake body size (snout–vent length) and prey type and size for free ranging Acanthophis praelongus from the Adelaide River floodplain. The figure shows the number of individual snakes in each 100 mm snake size class containing ( ) small scincid lizards, () unidentified frogs, and small- to medium-sized mammals. The three mammal species ranged in body size from () the small Planigale maculata (2–20 g), ( ) the medium-sized Melomys burtoni (18–50 g), and ( ) the large dusky rat Rattus colletti (42–200 g). numerical diet) and mammals (39%). By contrast, adult females fed almost entirely on small mammals (91%, Table 2). Based on the mean body size of the five major prey types (frogs, skinks, M. burtoni, P. maculata and R. colletti) larger snakes ate larger prey (Fig. 1). Analysis of variance showed the body size (SVL) of snakes differed significantly with respect to prey type (F4,103 = 31.7, P < 0.0001). Post hoc tests (Fisher’s PLSD) showed that snakes that fed on R. colletti were significantly larger (mean SVL = 619 mm) than snakes that fed on frogs, M. burtoni and P. maculata (mean SVL = 402.6 mm) and snakes that fed on skinks (mean SVL = 301.5 mm). Feeding rates of snakes in the field Of 282 death adders captured over the 3-year period (November 1996–November 1999), only 3% of snakes (8 of 282) contained large prey items (as detected by palpation). Because we kept snakes at ambient temperature for 12–16 h before processing them, most snakes would have already digested small prey items (frogs and lizards) by this time (Bedford 1996). Thus, the proportion of field-collected snakes that defecate may provide a better estimate of feeding rates in the wild. In this study, 34% of death adders (97 of 282 snakes) defecated when we measured them. Of these animals, a significantly higher proportion of juveniles (47%) defecated compared to adults (22%, 67 of 143 vs. 30 of 139 adults, c2 = 19.95, P < 0.0001). Fig. 2. Feeding rates and relative body condition of juvenile (solid bars) and adult (open bars) northern death adders captured in successive wet seasons (November–May) during a 3-year (1996–99) study. The figure shows (a) the relative body condition of snakes and (b) the proportion of recently fed snakes. Body condition was estimated using the residuals from a linear regression of log-transformed snout–vent length on log-transformed mass, but gravid females were excluded from this analysis. Note that the body condition of death adders was lowest during 1997 following cyclonic flooding of our study sites in December 1996 and January 1997. Error bars denote standard errors. We examined yearly variation in feeding rates by comparing the proportions of adults and juveniles that had recently fed (= those snakes that defecated) during the wet season (November–May) over the 3-year study. Proportions were arcsin transformed before statistical analysis (Underwood 1997). A two-factor analysis of variance, with year and snake size as factors, showed a significant effect of snake size (F1,25 = 6.99, P = 0.01) but no effect of year (F1,25 = 0.55, P = 0.58) and no interaction between snake size and year (F1,25 = 0.86, P = 0.17). Juvenile snakes fed more frequently than did adults and the pattern was consistent across years (Fig. 2). We used analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) to test whether snake body condition varied significantly among years within each snake size class (adults vs. juveniles). For each snake size class, we computed the ANCOVA with year as the factor, log-transformed SVL as the covariate, and log-transformed mass as the independent variable. For juveniles, the ANCOVA showed that slopes were parallel (F1,113 = 0.67, P = 0.51), with no significant effect of year on snake body condition (F1,115 = 2.17, P = 0.12). For adults, the ANCOVA showed that slopes were parallel (F2,103 = 1.98, 206 J. K . W E B B E T A L . P = 0.14), but snake body condition differed significantly among years (F2,105 = 3.55, P = 0.03). Post hoc tests (Fisher’s PLSD) showed that adult snakes were in better physical condition (i.e. were heavier relative to SVL) in 1998–99 than in other years (see Fig. 2). Adult body condition was highest in the year in which small mammals were abundant on the floodplain (Table 1). Feeding responses of death adders in the laboratory We tested 33 death adders in 196 feeding trials. Because of ambiguity in interpreting cases where snakes killed anurans but did not eat them (perhaps these were defensive strikes not feeding responses), we omitted these trials (n = 12) from our analyses. Overall, 91% of death adders that were offered frogs consumed them. Most snakes ate a high proportion of the frogs that were offered to them (mean = 0.83, SD = 0.38), and there was no obvious rejection of particular prey species. Death adders readily consumed individuals of seven species of frog (Cyclorana australis 78% of 36 offered, Cyclorana longipes 100% of 13, L. convexiusculus 83% of 23, Limnodynastes ornatus 78% of 23, Litoria nasuta 81% of 53, Litoria tornieri 100% of 4 and Uperoleia lithomoda 100% of 5). We then compared the feeding responses of snakes offered both frogs and toads (n = 19 snakes) and snakes offered only frogs (n = 14). The proportion of individuals that consumed toads (16 of 19 snakes) was similar to the proportion of snakes that consumed frogs (11 of 14 snakes, c2 = 0.17, 1 d.f., P = 0.68). Snakes that were offered both frogs and toads consumed cane toads as readily as frogs (toads were consumed in 78% of trials, frogs in 83% of trials, paired t-test, t = 0.52, 18 d.f., P = 0.61). Although we attempted to ‘detoxify’ the cane toads before the feeding trials, six snakes died after ingesting cane toads. Logistic regression suggested that the willingness of a snake to consume a toad was not affected by its sex (c2 = 0.18, 1 d.f., P = 0.67) or body size (c2 = 1.37, 1 d.f., P = 0.24). DISCUSSION Predicting the effects of alien invaders on native species is an important goal for ecologists and wildlife managers, and can help to identify high-risk species before the invasion (Ricciardi & Rasmussen 1998; Mack et al. 2000). The short-term impact of cane toads on predator populations will depend on predator diets, their propensity to attack and ingest cane toads and their ability to detoxify cane toad toxins. Our field data show that frogs are numerically important prey for northern death adders. Although we could not determine which frog species were ingested by death adders in the wild, our feeding trials showed that A. praelongus consumed seven species of terrestrial frogs, including one species (C. australis) that superficially resembles cane toads. Most importantly, a high proportion (84%) of death adders that were offered cane toads ingested them. Snakes of all size and sex classes consumed both frogs and cane toads under laboratory conditions. This is a critical observation, because it falsifies the alternative possibility that some individuals within the population might eat frogs but not cane toads. Thus, our study confirmed an important assumption of previous studies, namely that frogeating snakes will also eat cane toads (van Dam et al. 2002; Phillips et al. 2003). Because A. praelongus cannot detoxify cane toad toxins (Phillips et al. 2003), our results suggest that cane toads will cause high mortality rates in death adder populations. However, the interaction between toads and snakes may not be straightforward because of complications arising from intraspecific dietary divergence. In the field, northern death adders displayed a strong size-based dietary shift, with juveniles feeding on lizards and frogs, and adult females feeding mainly on small mammals. Similar ontogenetic shifts in prey size and type from small ectothermic prey (lizards) to larger endothermic prey (small mammals) occur among larger Australian elapids (Webb & Shine 1998), including the congeneric Acanthophis antarcticus (Shine 1980). This variation in consumption of frogs with the size and sex of a snake has strong implications for the way in which the toad invasion will influence snake demography. Because juveniles and adult males feed heavily on frogs, these two life stages will be most seriously affected by the cane toad invasion. However, the initial toad invasion is characterized by large toads (Freeland 1986) that are too bulky for juvenile death adders to swallow. Thus, we predict that adult males will suffer high mortality rates (via ingestion of toads) during the initial invasion, whereas juveniles will experience high toad-induced mortality rates during the following year when juvenile toads appear in high densities (Freeland 1986). The larger adult female snakes are likely to remain relatively unaffected so long as mammalian prey are abundant. As soon as rainfall patterns result in low rat numbers, a condition which occurs frequently in this system (Redhead 1979; Madsen & Shine 1999), adult female snakes are likely to switch to toads, and would experience high mortality rates as a result. We thus predict that the impact of the cane toad invasion on populations of northern death adders will be spread out over several years, and could involve successive waves of mortality that affect adult males, then juveniles of both sexes, and then adult females. These predictions are based on the assumption that adult females will eat cane toads when alternative E F F E C T S O F C A N E TOA D S O N D E AT H A D D E R S mammalian prey is unavailable. Our laboratory feeding trials confirmed this assumption, and already there are reports of large female A. praelongus dying after ingesting cane toads (G.S. Bedford, pers. comm. 2004). Importantly, two features of cane toad biology make our laboratory trials relevant to the situation that will occur after cane toads invade tropical floodplains. First, cane toads attain massive abundances within 2 years after colonization (Freeland 1986), so that encounter rates between snakes and toads will be high. Second, death adders are ambush foragers that utilize caudal luring to bring prey to within striking distance (Carpenter et al. 1978). The caudal lure (modified tailtip) of A. praelongus increases in size and changes colour (from white to black) with increasing snake size (J. Webb, unpubl. data 1999). Cane toads are strongly attracted to black, wriggling objects (Ingle & McKinley 1978) and may be attracted to the caudal lure of adult death adders. We thus anticipate many fatal encounters between cane toads and adult female death adders as the toads invade tropical floodplains. The availability of alternative prey may also influence predator vulnerability during the toad invasion. Feeding rates and body condition of adult northern death adders of both sexes varied temporally (Fig. 2), presumably because cyclonic flooding of our study sites in the 1996–97 wet season caused substantial decreases in rodent abundance (Table 1). Previous studies have found strong links between rainfall patterns and annual changes in rodent abundance on these floodplains (Redhead 1979; Williams 1987; Madsen & Shine 1999). Because few large prey were available to death adders during years with low mammal abundance (Table 1), many snakes were in poor physical condition (Fig. 2). However, large prey will be super-abundant once cane toads invade the system. In years when rodents are scarce, death adders will likely feed on the most abundant alternative prey (cane toads). This type of prey switching, with predation on cane toads and the subsequent death of the predator, was reported for the carpet python Morelia spilota, a species that does not usually eat anurans (Covacevich & Couper 1992). Thus, the timing as well as the magnitude of the impact of cane toads on the adult A. praelongus population may depend on the abundance of small mammals. Toads may exert their impact on adult death adders immediately, if they arrive in a year when mammals are scarce. Alternatively, there may be little impact of cane toads for several years if recent weather conditions have resulted in high rodent numbers on the floodplain (Madsen & Shine 1999). In conclusion, our results suggest that cane toads will cause population declines of death adders from the Darwin region. However, the persistence of A. praelongus in northern Australia will depend on the impact of cane toads on other death adder populations, the nature of the impact (is it short- or long- 207 term?), and on the level of dispersal between populations (Thompson 1994). Predicting the impact of cane toads on other death adder populations is difficult, particularly if they display geographical variation in their diets and feeding responses, as occurs in some snake species (Drummond & Burghardt 1983). If most individuals from other populations do not attack cane toads, the direct impacts of toads on such populations may be less severe. Future laboratory studies are urgently needed to evaluate this possibility. If our results are applicable to other populations of A. praelongus, then conservation measures will be urgently needed to prevent the extinction of this species. We do not advocate the translocation of death adders to snake-free islands, as this could create serious problems for native predator-naïve animals on such islands (as occurred on Guam, Savidge 1987; Fritts & Rodda 1998). An alternative conservation strategy is to set up toad exclosures or toad quarantine measures on offshore islands that currently harbour populations of A. praelongus (e.g. on Quail Island near Darwin). The status of vulnerable (floodplain) populations of A. praelongus could also be monitored each year by counting death adders on transects (bitumen roads) in the hour after dusk during the mating season (November, Webb et al. 2002). Long-term population studies are needed to assess the ecological impacts of cane toads on tropical snake faunas, and to test the hypotheses that we have developed within this article. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS We thank Peter Fisher, Jenny Koenig, Thomas Madsen, Myfanwy Runcie and Tim Schultz for their assistance in the field, and Gavin Bedford for carrying out feeding trials in the laboratory. The Northern Territory Department of Primary Industries and Fisheries and the Parks and Wildlife Commission of the Northern Territory kindly allowed us to work on the floodplain adjacent to Beatrice Hill. Martin Whiting, Mike Bull and two anonymous reviewers provided critical comments and suggestions that helped to improve an earlier version of the manuscript. We thank John Woinarski and Meri Oakwood for kindly allowing us to cite their recent unpublished work on northern quoll populations. The work was carried out in accordance with Northern Territory University Animal Care and Ethics Committee guidelines under the approval of the Northern Territory Parks and Wildlife Service (licence #7952 to J. Webb). 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