Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
TRW General Purpose Decision Aids Using Semi-Automated Decision Algorithms in Military Operations By Dennis R. Ellis [email protected] TRW Systems 1 PHOENIX CHALLENGE 2002 February 20-22, 2002 New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM General Purpose Decision Aids TRW General Purpose Decision Aids Overview • The goal is a set of configurable, flexible, semi-automated decision support tools. • Support for multi-echelon, joint services command simulation at the operational and strategic levels for the IO/IW, AOC, NMD, TMD, and Strategic Deterence missions. • Based on Joint Operations Planning and Execution System (JOPES) concepts. Decision Makers 2 Decision Algorithms Operational Databases • Designed for maximum scalability and parallelism as a distributed system. Doctrine • Supports parallelism, shared memory, and multiple processors. Coordinated CONOPS • Includes Data Mining, Dempster-Shafer Belief Network, Genetic, Optimal Policy, and Case Based Planning algorithms. General Purpose Decision Aids TRW Spectrum of Options for Approach Our focus has been in this area Practical Implementation at AOCs Basis for multi-mission synergy TADIL-J is a start Message passing Operational Cells Co-dependent Missions Smart Collaboration Collaborative Agents Degree of Integration Tight System of Systems Loose NMD/TMD/AOC Wargames Joint Exercises Operator Dialog Passive Observance Single System 3 Common Decisions Non-Interacting Systems General Purpose Decision Aids JOPES-based Deliberative Processes TRW Joint Operations Planning & Execution System Mission Course of Detailed Situation Repeat Execution Action Selection Planning Assessment if necessary - Manage Forces - Force Survivable - Weather - Target Viability - Threats - Identify Goals - Filter Preplans - Selects COAs - Defensive Strategies - Offensive Strategies - Integrate/Deconflict - Weapon Allocation - Asset Tasking - Joint Scheduling - Define C2 timeline - Satisfy Constraints - Optimize Plan Typical Mission 4 - Adjust Status - Set Engagement - Assign Assets - Monitor Strikes - Enforce Timeline - Assess Mission - Plan Update - Redirect Forces - Reconstitute TRW Decision Centered Approach General Purpose Decision Aids • Decision = State Transition Current State Legend: known Plan NEW! Assess unknown Desired State Transition - Current State, Transition (Plan & Assess) , and Desired State may not be known - This paradigm has been shown to neatly sort decisions, algorithms, and displays Representation: 5 Decision Categories: Military Equivalent: Clarify Current State Situation Analysis Clarify Desired State Determine Objective Define Alternatives Develop COAs Execute/Assess Plan Combat Assessment Decision Tools General Purpose Decision Aids TRW • Our decision tools span the full spectrum of military decision making, including Effects Based Operations assessment feedback. • Background Tasks C&C Fog-of-War Mission Simulator Decision Tools Controller • Foreground Tasks - Decision Toolkit 6 Deliberate Planning • Case-based Planner • Planning Horizon • Terrain Reasoning • Target Designation Mission Planning • Mission Previewer • Engagement Planner • Optimize Effectiveness • Schedule Repair Problem Recognition • Profile Generation • Clustering • Rule Induction Element Management • Force Management • Force Survival • Target Viability Execution Monitoring • Timeline Enforcer • Rule-Based Execution • Effectiveness Metric • Plan Update Trigger Assessment • Dempster-Shafer Belief Network General Purpose Decision Aids Interleaved Planning & Execution Legend: Planning Thread: TRW Function Technology Determine Course of Action Assess Mission Readiness Optimize Plan Preview Mission Case-Based Reasoning Data Mining Genetic Algorithm Map-Based Visualizer Execution Thread: 7 Assess Mission Effectiveness Perturb Environment Monitor Timeline Update Plan Belief Network Fog-of-War Module Timeline Visualizer Optimal Policy General Purpose Decision Aids Situation Diagnosis • Dempster-Shafer Networks TRW It is crucial that situations are properly diagnosed because military decisions that adversely affect lives, property, and the environment are based on the assessment of the situation, making the decision inherently risky. • Information Operations • Anti-Terrorism Operations • Combat Assessment • Weather Forecast • Space & Terrestrial Weather • Time Critical Target Assessment • Foreign Launch Assessment Evidence Task to Strategy Belief in Hypotheses Time 8 Under intense time pressure, people often: 1) Refuse to decide 2) “Jump to conclusions” 3) Ignore potentially important evidence 4) Have difficulty understanding data correlation The data: - Is usually uncertain, incomplete, ambiguous - Possibly conflicting - Arrives asynchronously General Purpose Decision Aids Evidence about associated hypothesis 9 Information Ops - Operator View TRW Belief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis below blue line. Disbelief in evidence supporting associated hypothesis above red line. Amount of ignorance about associated hypothesis between lines. General Purpose Decision Aids • Data Mining • Weka • Subdue Pattern Discovery TRW Given a large, dynamically changing database, a decision-maker must understand relationships among data fields, guard against corrupt data, and be alerted to changes in the underlying structure of the data. • Weka uses Quinlan’s C5.0 Classifier to find underlying structure and build a rule tree that identifies “outliers”. • Inconsistencies, omissions, and conflicts are explicitly shown. • Weka uses statistical techniques for data extraction: Our Efforts 10 - Rule Induction - Neural Networks - Regression Modeling - K Nearest Neighbor Clustering • Subdue uses a Minimum Description Length (MDL) algorithm to compress and hierarchically cluster. General Purpose Decision Aids TRW WEKA - Rule Induction View Rules that determine if a threat Surface-to-Air site is operational or not Legend: OPR -> Operational NOP -> Non-Operational Lat > 39.4 59 OPR 2 NOP Lat > 39.1 Lon < 127.2 31 OPR 2 NOP Lat < 39.1 Lon < 127.2 30 NOP SA-2s Lat > 38.5 Lon < 127.2 1 OPR SA-3 30 NOP SA-3s 11 Lat < 39.4 Lon > 127.2 2 OPR 56 NOP General Purpose Decision Aids Strategy Determination/Detailed Planning TRW • Course-of-Action Development The characteristics of this decision type are: 1) A decision-maker is given broad objectives that result in an ill-posed problem, 2) Exponential explosion of possible solutions, 3) Many dimensions and/or criteria, and 4) Difficulty in quantitatively rating the worth of a strategy. When faced with these circumstances, people often attempt to: 1) Recall a course-of-action that worked in previous similar circumstances, 2) Caucus to arrive at a consensus (i.e., group-think), or 3) Identify a dominant criteria and assemble a strategy around it. • Detailed Plan Development Because of the complexity and size of the planning space and the number of possible combinations of factors and constraints that must be considered during the planning phase, manual planning methods, and most current automated methods, are too narrowly focused, inflexible, time consuming, and not scalable. 12 ActiveOptions Detailed Plan ActiveTargets Option, Target ... Name Weapon Arena Type Plan Optimization JCS Order Name Locale Location Type Value Hardness Mobile Constraints Selection Criteria COA Planner COA Case Base 13 TRW COA/Detailed Planning Overview General Purpose Decision Aids Target Assessment TargetStatus Name Type Arena Weapon COA Name Keywords Viable Area Targets ResponseOptions Dynamic Status Target Selection Process General Purpose Decision Aids Strategy Determination - COA View TRW This screen displays the “goodness-of-match” of the input Planning Order against previously stored cases to aid the analyst in generating a new Course-of-Action. 14 General Purpose Decision Aids Detailed Planning - Operator View TRW This screen allows the analyst to evaluate the effectiveness of additional plans and instantly see the diversity and details of each plan. 15 Summary General Purpose Decision Aids TRW We have refined, tailored, and demonstrated innovative decision tools that span the full spectrum of JOPES command and control decision-making in these areas: • Situation diagnosis using a Dempster-Shafer Belief algorithm • Pattern discovery using Data Mining algorithms • Strategy determination using a Case-Based Reasoning algorithm • Detailed planning using a Genetic Algorithm We have demonstrated the applicability of these algorithms and support tools in multiple mission domains: • IO/IW Defensive Counter-Information • Aerospace Operations Center (AOC) • Anti-terrorism • Strategic Deterrent Forces (SDF) and National Missile Defense (NMD) 16 For more information, contact the author at [email protected]