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Convention on Migratory Species United Nations Environment Programme IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON BIODIVERSITY – PROBLEMS FACED BY MIGRATORY SPECIES? Elizabeth Maruma Mrema, Executive Secretary, UNEP/CMS Secretariat Session 21 20 August 2010 7th UNEP-Joensuu University Course on International Environmental Law-Making and Diplomacy Joensuu, Finland, 15-24 August 2010 Overview of the Presentation • How does climate change impact or • affect biodiversity conservation especially migratory species? Are existing global regimes able to provide mechanisms for adaptation? Impact of climate change on biodiversity • • • • • • • • Increasing temperatures Changes in precipitation Extreme weather Sea level rise Ocean acidification Changes in ocean circulation Other spatial and temporal responses Exacerbation of existing threats What Climate Change could do… Predicted Climate Change Temperature rises by more than 1.5 2.5 C Possible Impact Estimated 20-30% of plant and animal species at increased extinction risk C rise in global temperatures Reduces suitable habitat of birds that breed at high elevation by more than 50% Rise in sea surface temperature of approximately 1-3°C Coral bleaching = loss of entire species communities (already seeing 40% decline in phytoplankton!) Credit: Todd LaJeunesse, Penn State, October 2005 Summary of predicted climate effects on species Source: Foden, Mace et al. 2009 IUCN Animal migration is closely linked to climatic factors • Opportunistic adaptation: directly and indirectly driven by climatic conditions • Migratory species take advantage of seasonal feeding and/or breeding opportunities • Or move to avoid unfavourable climatic conditions Wildebeest migration in search of optimal vegetation (rain…) On land: species shifts already happening • • • • Many hoofed animals’ migratory patterns are often directly affected by rainfall and vegetation growth – Western African Manatee & Ganges River Dolphin Already seeing shifts in species ranges towards the poles and migration patterns (this often results in range state changes) – Common Dolphin, a warmer water specie increases its range while White-beaked Dolphin range is reducing Increased/prolonged drought is predicted to lead to population declines – Sahel drought of late 1960s decreased Whitethroat Warbler to 25% of what they were once Increased desertification (Sahara) adversely affects ability of Afro-European migrants to cross this ecological barrier successfully Blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) Saiga antelope (Saiga tatarica) Case study: Sahelo-Saharan Antelopes Dama Gazelle – Narger Dama Migration northwards during wet season and southwards in the dry season It feeds on plants such as desert shrubs, acacias and even rough, desert grasses for water. Increasing drought will make large parts of the habitat unsuitable for the species… Where will they migrate to in increasingly fragmented habitats? Instruments to protect the species: IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2008: Critically Endangered (Criteria: A2cd) (Population Trend: Decreasing) CMS: Sahelo-Saharan Antelopes Concerted Action Appendix I CITES Appendix I In the water: marine species in trouble Marine environment particularly sensitive to changes in the atmosphere CO2 Ocean acidification threatens coral reefs and organisms that are made of calcite (e.g. krill) Prediction: In the coming century only the top 600m of the oceans will be suitable for the formation of calcium carbonate (calcite); today: at 4km depth this is still feasible! Reduction of sea ice (impact on breeding habitat –seals, resting small number of stopover sites – Lesser White-fronted Goose ) all have shown to lead to lower reproductive rates Rise in sea-surface temperature Bad news: 40% decline in phytoplankton since 1950 Boyce et al. (2010), Nature 466: 591-596. Case study: Polar bear & ringed seal • Ocean acidification causing loss of sea-ice due to increasing temperatures • Reduces food resources & less breeding habitat, less hunting habitat (for marine mammals, eg: polar bears) Decline in Seals, Whales, Marine Turtles, Narwhal & Polar Bears in the Arctic Instruments to protect the species: IUCN Red List of Threatened Species 2008: Polar Bear: Vulnerable (Population Trend: Decreasing) Ringed Seal: Least Concern Polar Bear – Ursus Polar Bear Protection Act 1969 MaritimusUS Endangered Species Act 2008 Ringed Seal - Pusa hispida In the air: birds are well-studied We are seeing the following as climate gets warmer: Birds arriving earlier (Pied Flycatcher) & nesting earlier – Changing time of migration Shifts in migration routes – birds migrate from winter sites earlier to arrive at breeding habitat with inadequate food supply (insects) to refuel Species ranges shrink, expand – some species stop migrating! Species at the edge of their range particularly threatened •84% of migratory birds affected by climate change (Robinson et al. 2005) From: Climatic Atlas of European Breeding birds (2008) Earlier arrival dates of pied flycatchers Shifting ranges of 60% of US birds studied While many of these are not migratory, the overall picture is the same for migratory birds. Long-distance migrants are particularly vulnerable Long-distance migrants are more vulnerable than short-distance migrants, because – while away at their distant wintering grounds – they cannot predict when spring starts at the breeding habitats! Some birds have difficult to adapt their migration patterns as they are dependent on endogenous clocks This “mismatching” is already leading to bird species declines! •Many long-distance trans-Saharan songbirds are affected. Adaptive potential at the limit • In the past (e.g. last ice age) many migratory species have successfully adapted to climate change • Today: species exposed to multiple threats • Speed of climate change is such that many populations are reaching the limit of their adaptive potential • Migratory species depend on many habitats, often across biomes, making them particularly vulnerable • Only few short & average distance migrants – Black cap- have succeeded to adapt Summary of biological changes currently being observed • Loss of breeding/wintering/critical stopover habitat • Timing of migration & reproduction: earlier onset • Changing sex ratio: Temp of 29.2C produce 50:50 sex ratio . • • • • Beyond that lead to their feminization – sea turtles, birds, fish Ranges: shrinking, expanding, shifting Migratory routes: shortening, elongation Direction of species shifts: mostly, but not always in a northerly direction! Geography: Arctic and other species at the edge of their range particularly affected Do MEAs address Climate Change Impacts? • Major MEAs for species conservation where adopted a century ago embodying ad hoc, fragmented approach – species/sites already endangered – inherently reactive • Ramsar Wetlands Convention, 1971 • World Heritage Convention, 1972 • CITES, 1973 • Convention on Migratory Species, 1979 • Calls for proactive & holistic approaches led to precautionary and ecosystem approaches through: • Convention on Biological Diversity, 1992 • Later approaches adopted in national laws & policies Biodiversity Conservation & Climate Change • UNFCCC provide limited guidance for biodiversity adaption • UNFCCC prescribes taking precautionary measures to mitigate effects of CC & calls for national/regional programmes to facilitate adaptation to CC • Neither UNFCCC nor Kyoto Protocol specifically addresses adaptation of species & ecosystems. Neither current texts MEAs within the Biodiversity Liaison Group UNEP/Montreal CBD and Cartagena Protocol UNEP/Geneva CITES Trade Programmes of Work Appendices I-III Marine and Coastal Biodiversity Inland waters Biodiversity Mountain Biodiversity IUCN/Gland Ramsar Convention Forest Biodiversity UNEP/Bonn AEWA Waterbirds The Ramsar List UNESCO/Paris Monaco ACCOBAMS Small/large Cetaceans WHC Protected Areas UNEP/Bonn ASCOBANS Small Cetaceans World Heritage Site Agricultural Biodiversity FAO/Rome ITPGRFA Interesting fact: There are more than 155 treaties addressing biodiversity… Regional Agreements Hobart ACAP Albatrosses and Petrels Wetlands Dry and Sub-humid Lands Island Biodiversity UNEP/Bonn CMS Migratory Species Plant Genetic Resources Multilateral System UNEP/Bonn EUROBATS Bats UNEP/Wilhelmshaven Wadden Sea Agreement The Common Seal UNEP/Bonn Gorilla Agreement All Species of Gorilla RAMSAR Convention on Wetlands • Wetlands (e.g. mangroves, floodplains) are vital for CC adaptation: Reduce the impact of increased rainfall, storms, glacier melting, even sea level rise. • Conservation & wise use of wetlands enables species to adapt to CC by providing connectivity, corridors & flyways along which they can move. • Protection of unfragmented wetlands will buffer species & ecosystems against extreme weather events. Therefore: More RAMSAR sites are needed! Convention on Biological Diversity • CBD itself does not explicitly address CC adaption like other MEAs does so through COP decisions, such as, urging Parties to: • Take measures to manage ecosystems so as to maintain their resilience to extreme climate events & help to mitigate & adapt to CC • cooperate regionally in activities aimed at enhancing habitat connectivity across ecological gradients to enhance ecosystem resilience • facilitate migration & dispersal of species with limited tolerance to altered climatic conditions. Convention on Migratory Species (CMS) • Aim at conservation of migratory species of wild animals • Through various legal tools: • Species listings (Appendix I, II) • Regional legally binding agreements • Several non-legally binding MOUs for specific species CMS Family Houbara Bustard Asia CMS Memoranda of Understanding Marine Turtles Siberian Crane 1993 Slender-billed Curlew 1995 Marine Turtles Atlantic Coast of Africa 1999 Ind. Ocean / S-E Asia Bukhara Deer 2002 Aquatic Warbler 2003 Western African Elephant 2005 South Pacific Island Cetaceans 2006 Saiga Antelope 2006 West African Cetaceans 2007 Monk Seal 2007 Dugong 2007 Ruddy H Goose 2007 South-American Grassland Bird 2007 African-Eurasian Raptors 2008 Andean Flamingos 2008 Sharks 2010 Pacific Island Marine Turtles Central Asian Flyway Concluded / In Force 2000 Great Bustard 2000 In Preparation Recent study has assessed the vulnerability of migratory species to climate change Each species evaluated against 4 risk factors: 1. Vulnerability of habitat/s Resilience to change Climatic changes projected for habitat area. Impact that projected changes will have upon the habitat. 2. Ecological flexibility and adaptation potential – Degree of specialisation – Environmental triggers and phenological cues – Evidence of adaptation in the past – Dispersal ability – Reproduction rate and resilience: Climate related changes to fecundity or reproductive success 3. Vulnerability of species interactions Changing dynamics of predator/ prey/ competitor interactions Impacts upon mutualisms/ symbiosis. 4. Interactions with other threat processes – Habitat loss/ fragmentation – Exploitation – Disease – Invasive species Key outcomes • Marine turtle species listed on Appendix I are predicted to be highly vulnerable to climate change: combined impacts of sea level rise, increased temperatures and extreme weather events alongside negative impacts of current anthropogenic threats. • Plankton and krill feeding whales on Appendix I are predicted to be highly vulnerable to climate change: combined impacts of ocean acidification, changes in ocean circulations and polar ice melt. • All species studied listed on Appendix I which are also Critically Endangered (IUCN) are also predicted highly vulnerable to climate change. Find out more here: www.cms.int/publications A complex process…What next?